THE ELWAY POLL

6 JAN 15

6 JANUARY 2015

Education Tops Public Agenda for Legislative Session.

Most Voters Open to Discussion of New Taxes.
For the first me in seven years, the economy was not named by voters as the most important issue of the
upcoming legisla ve session. A combina on of an improving economic outlook and a Supreme Court mandate has moved educa on into the top spot on the public agenda. Some 42% of the 502 voters in last weeks
Elway Poll volunteered educa on as the most important issue for the legislature to focus on this year.
That improving economic outlook may also be opening the door to considera on of a wider range of possible strategies for funding than has been the case of late, including new taxes.
Transporta on, the other big issue on the legislatures plate, moved up to fourth place behind perennial
issue of taxes. The propor on of respondents who cited transporta on doubled over last year to 17%.
If combined, taxes, budget and spending would be in second place with 34% of respondents.

STATE BUDGET PRIORITIES

Of course, the fundamental issue of the session will be the state budget, which is hard enough without
contempt cita ons from the Supreme Court. Then voters added their own educa on mandate by passing the
class size ini a ve in November. The current state budget is about $34 billion. The two educa on mandates
could add $3 to $4 billion to the budget. Or more, depending on who is coun ng.
A government budgetdevised in a cauldron of conflic ng interests and valuesis an intricate document, comprised of myriad inter-related details and nuance outside the a en on of everyday ci zens. A
public survey on the budget, therefore, is an indicator of the values context in which the debate will take
place. This survey indicates where voters begin the debate, not where they will end up.
Budget wri ng comes down to cu ng programs and/or raising taxes. As usual, most voters dont want to
do either. To be fair to the voters, most legislators probably dont want to do either. The essence of public
opinion was probably captured in response to a ques on about how to deal with the educa on mandates.
Two-thirds of respondents said an acceptable solu on would be Do(ing) as much as possible to fund educaon and reduce class sizes without raising taxes and without deep cuts to other programs -- even if that
means we do not fully implement the educa on mandates.
MOST
IMPORTANT
ISSUE
FOR THE
LEGISLATURE
2005-2015
Figures are percentages
who named an issue in
that category.
Shading indicates topranked issue for each
year.

Cell Entries = %

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

Education

42

19

22

27

14

11

15

20

31

23

23

Economy

32

46

43

59

44

49

43

18

15

16

24

Taxes

19

14

12

13

12

10

15

11

17

17

Transportation

17

10

33

20

20

10

Budget/Spending

15

17

24

42

30

25

23

12

18

24

Environment

Health Care

11

12

13

14

10

16

13

15

16

Public Safety

Social Services
Energy

THE ELWAY POLL 2014. Excerpts may be quoted with attribution.

2006 2005

THE ELWAY POLL

6 JAN 15

Revenue is expected to increase by about $3 billion over the biennium due to the improving economy.
In a separate ques on about this extra $3 billion, the response echoed the make do strategy. A 52%
majority favored spreading it around to increase funding for educa on, plus restore some programs and
services that were cut during the recession. Another 25% favored pu ng the en re $3 billion toward public educa on, while 21% favored keeping the state budget at its present level and using the $3 billion for
tax cuts. The la er is an alterna ve almost no one is seriously proposing, but the response indicates the
size of the tax cuts cons tuency. Over the years, The Elway Poll has calculated the bedrock an -tax cons tuency at around 25%. This finding is consistent with that trend.
Survey respondents were oered three strategies to fund the educa on mandates. For each they were
asked if they 1) favored that approach, 2)thought it could be acceptable, 3) opposed it or 4) found it unacceptable. No majority favored of any of the three approaches outright, but neither was there a majority
opposed to any of the three. There were majori es who thought two of the three could be acceptable:
65% for doing as much as possible without cu ng other programs and without raising taxes even if that
means we do not fully implement the educa on mandates.
51% for funding public educa on first with exis ng revenue. Then fund the rest of state government with
the money remainingeven if that means cu ng other services.
48% said it would be acceptable to increase taxes necessary to fund the supreme court and voter mandates to reduce class size without making further cuts to other programs and services.

GOVERNORS BUDGET PROPOSAL

Governor Inslee has proposed a $39 billion budget, which would par ally fund the educa on mandates,
restore some other programs, and give teachers and state employees a raise. He would fund his
$5 billion increase with the new $3 billion, some cuts
and savings, some state reserves, and some new taxes.
WHAT TO DO WITH $3 BILLION IN NEW REVENUE
His plan to spread the addi onal money around is
All to Education
generally in line with most voters preference. The idea
Spread Across Agencies
21 25
of generally raising taxes met with an equally divided
Reduce
Taxes
public. As noted, 48% found the idea acceptable and
49% were opposed. There was equilibrium at the hard
52
ends of the scale as well: 26% favored new taxes outright and 28% found the prospect unacceptable.
FUNDING THE EDUCATION MANDATES
Specific taxes in the governors proposal found supFAVOR ACCEPT OPPOSE UNACCEPTABLE
port, however. Majori es thought each of four taxes
No Tax Increase,
could be an acceptable part of a solu on including:
36
31 16
65
No Deep Cuts
77% for increasing the cigare e tax by 50 cents a pack
plus a tax on e-cigare es and vapor cigare es;
Fund Education First 27
71% for a new carbon tax on industries that release the
46 24
51
most pollutants into the air;
57% for a new capital gains tax on the sale of stocks and
Increase Taxes 26
28
49
48
bonds equal to 7% of any profits above $25,000
dollars per individual.
56% for re-ins tu ng sales tax on bo led water.
INITIAL REACTION TO PROPOSED TAXES
FAVOR ACCEPT OPPOSE UNACCEPTABLE
Skep cs will point out that support for these taxes
Cigarette Tax 58
diminishes with the likelihood that these respondents
77 2214
will actually be paying them. Even so, the high levels of
Carbon Tax 51
ini al acceptance indicate that the Governor has seized
71 28 18
the ini a ve. It is usually not hard to win an argument
Capital Gains Tax 35
against taxes, and the debate has not begun. But oppo57
38 24
nents of these taxes are star ng at a disadvantage.
Bottled Water

31

56

42

26

THE ELWAY POLL

Sample Profile
502 registered voters, selected at random from registered voter lists in Washington
state, were interviewed Dec. 27-30, 2014 by live, professional interviewers. 19% of the
interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is 4.5% at the
95% level of confidence. This means, in theory, had this same survey been conducted 100
times, the results would be within 4.5% of the results reported here at least 95 times.

REGION*
King County ........................................ 31%
Pierce + Kitsap .................................... 15%
North Sound (Snohomish to Whatcom) ........ 16%
Western Washington (Clallam to Clark) .... 18%
Eastern Washington............................ 20%
GENDER
Male .................................................... 48%
Female ................................................ 52%
AGE
18-35 ..................................................... 7%
36-50 ................................................... 23%
51-64 ................................................... 42%
65+ ...................................................... 26%
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat ............................................ 32%
Republican ......................................... 20%
Independent ........................................ 47%
EDUCATION
High School......................................... 17%
Some College ..................................... 24%
College Graduate ................................ 39%
Post Graduate ..................................... 20%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
<$50,000 ............................................. 22%
$50 - 74,000 ........................................ 23%
$75 - 99,000 ........................................ 20%
$100,000+ ........................................... 19%
No Answer .......................................... 17%
* The percentages published for Region in yesterdays
publication were incorrect. These are the correct
percentages. We regret the error.

The Elway Poll

The Elway Poll is an independent, non-partisan analysis of public
opinion in Washington and the Northwest.

PROPRIETARY QUESTIONS:

Each quarter, space is reserved in

the questionnaire to allow for proprietary questions. The fee for
proprietary questions is $1000 per question. You will receive
the results of your question(s) with full crosstabulations within
three days after the interviews are completed.

CROSSTABS: A full set of cross-tabulation tables is available for

$100.

The Elway Poll

7 03 5 P a l at i n e N .
Seattle, WA 98103
206/264-1500 FAX: 264-0301
epoll@elwayresearch.com

6 JAN 15

BUDGET QUESTIONS WORDING

This session, the legislature will write the state government budget. The
current budget is about $34 billion dollars. Two new mandates for public
education would increase that amount: First, the State Supreme Court
ruled that the state is not fully funding basic education, and must do so.
Second, voters passed an initiative last month to reduce class size in
public schools. Paying for both of these mandates would add at least
$3.5 billion dollars to the state budget.
Meanwhile, many state government programs and services have
been cut since the Great Recession. Now, due to the improving economy, revenue coming into the state is expected to increase by $3 billion
dollars. Which of the following three approaches to the budget are you
most inclined to favor:
1) Put all of the $3 billion dollars toward public education.
2) Spread the $3 billion around to increase funding for education, plus
restore some programs and services that were cut during the recession.
3) Keep state government and public education at their present levels
and use the $3 billion to reduce taxes.
One of the first issues the legislature will face is how to deal with these
education mandates. The following are some general approaches being
proposed. As I read each one, tell me whether you would: 1) be inclined
to Favor that approach; 2) think it could be Acceptable; 3) be inclined to
Oppose that approach; or 4) find it Unacceptable. I realize you dont
have all the details, but how are you inclined? The first one is
1)Fund public education first with existing revenue. Then fund the rest
of state government with the money remaining - even if that means
cutting other services
2)Increase taxes necessary to fund the supreme court and voter mandates to reduce class size without making further cuts to other programs and services
3)Do as much as possible to fund education and reduce class sizes
without raising taxes and without deep cuts to other programs -- even
if that means we do not fully implement the education mandates.
The governor has proposed a state government budget of $39 billion
dollars - $5 billion dollars more than the current budget. About half of
that increase would go toward public education. The rest would go to
improve mental health programs also mandated by the Supreme
Court plus child welfare programs, state parks, oil spill prevention,
and a cost-of-living raise for teachers and state employees.
With the extra $3 billion dollars coming in, that leaves revenue
about $2 billion dollars short of this proposed budget. To raise that $2
billion dollars, the governor proposes to get half a billion dollars from
state reserves, spending cuts and management efficiencies. The rest
would come from new or increased taxes.
The next questions are about these taxes. As I read each one, tell
me whether you would: 1) Favor that proposal, 2) think it could be an
Acceptable part of a solution, 3) be inclined to Oppose, or 4) find it
Unacceptable. Again, I realize you dont have all the details, but how
are you inclined as things stand today? The first one is
1) Establish a capital gains tax on the sale of stocks and bonds equal to
7% of any profits above $25,000 dollars per individual. Retirement
accounts, homes and farms would be exempt.
2) Increase the cigarette tax by 50 cents a pack and place a tax on ecigarettes and vapor cigarettes
3) Re-institute the sales tax on bottled water
4) Institute a new carbon tax on industries that release the most pollutants into the air