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TORONTO HOUSING MARKET

OUTLOOK 2015/2016
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
HOUSING OUTLOOK CONFERENCE

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H
Housing
i market
k t iintelligence
t lli
you can countt
on

Outline
Housing market intelligence you can count on

Outlook
High Rise vs. Low Rise
Risks to Forecasts

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

More MLS Sales Next Year


Total MLS Sales

92,000

2013

0
96,000

2012

92,500

2010

88,946

2009

88,157

88,214

70,000

76,387

80,000

89,255

90,000

91,760

100,000

60,000
2008

2011

2014F 2015F 2016F

MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)


Source: CREA, CMHC forecasts (F)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Supply Will Keep the Resale Market Balanced


Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
100%

80%

60%

40%

Source: CREA, CMHC forecasts (F)


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2
2016Q01F

2014Q3

2013Q1

2011Q3

2010Q1

2008Q3

2007Q1

2005Q3

2004Q1

20%

Home Price Growth to Mirror Inflation


Average MLS Price Growth
10%

9.1%

9%
8%

7.9%

7.5%

7.0%

6.6%

7%

7.0%

6%

5.0%

4.8%

5%

6.5%

4.3%

4%
3%

2.2%

2%

1.8%

0 8%
0.8%

1%
0%
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 2014F 2015F 2016F

MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)


Source: CREA, CMHC forecasts (F)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

New Home Sales Slowly Trending Up


60,000
Low Rise Sales

50,000
,

High Rise Sales


40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000

Source: Realnet Inc.


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2014M01

2013M01

2012M01

2011M01

2010M01

2009M01

2008M01

2007M01

2006M01

2005M01

2004M01

2003M01

2002M01

2001M01

2000M01

Condominium Apartments to Dominate Housing Starts

50,000
40,000

8,500

17,50
00

10,000

9,700

20 000
20,000

18,000
0

30,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F2016F

Apartment

Semi-detached

Row

Single-detached

Source: CMHC Starts & Completions Survey, CMHC forecasts (F)


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Job Market Will Lend Support to Home Buying


Toronto CMA
Unemployment Rate (%)
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
80
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0

7.9

76
7.6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F2016F

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC forecasts (F)


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Employment Growth by Industry


Percentage Growth in Employment
Employment, 2009 vs
vs. 2013
Business,buildingandothersupportservices
Construction
Accommodationandfoodservices
Educationalservices
Publicadministration
Healthcareandsocialassistance
T
Transportationandwarehousing
t ti
d
h i
Professional,scientificandtechnicalservices
Trade
F.I.R.E.
Information,cultureandrecreation
Manufacturing
Otherservices
15.0% 10.0%

Source: Statistics Canada

5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Employment
p y
g
growth by
y age
g group
g
p
125
120
115

In
ndex

110
105
100
95
90
85
80
2008Q1

2009Q1

2010Q1
Renters

Source: Statistics Canada

2011Q1
FTB

2012Q1
Repeat

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2013Q1

2014Q1

Incomes Rising
$950

Avg. Weekly Earnings, Toronto CMA


$913

$900
$850
$800
$750
$700
$650
$600
2002

Source: Statistics Canada

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2011

2012

2013

Equities
q
at All-Time Highs
g
$18,000

TSX 300 Index, 2009-present

$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
$
2009

Source: TSX

2010

2011

2012

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2013

2014

Contributio
on to chang
ge in GDP

Contributors to USA GDP growth


g
6
5
4
3
NetExports
Investment
Government
Consumption

2
1
0
1
2
2
3
4

Source: US Bureau of Economic Statistics

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

New home sales: USA


1,600

Number of sales

1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

Source: US Census Bureau

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Existing
g home average
g price:
p
USA
200
190

Price index

180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100

Source: S&P Shiller Home Price Index

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Ontario exports
p
(goods)
(g
) top
p destinations
Mexico

1%

PRC

1%

HongKong

2%

UK

6%

USA

78%
0%

Source: Government of Ontario

20%

40%

60%

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

80%

100%

Ontario exports
p
top
p goods
g
Nickel

1%

Medications Packaged forRetail

2%

MotorVehicle Parts

6%

Gold

10%

Autos

28%
0%

Source: Government of Ontario

5%

10%

15%

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

20%

25%

30%

Exchange
g rate: USD/CAD
1.05

1.00

0.95

0.90

0.85

0.80
09/01/2012

Source: Bank of Canada

09/11/2012

09/09/2013

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

09/07/2014

5Y p
posted mortgage
g g rate
8.00
7.50
7.00

Percenttage

6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2006

2007

2008

Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC forecast

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2014

2015F

Core Consumer Price Index


Yea
ar-over-year change in in
ndex

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
2010

Source: Bank of Canada

2011

2012

2013

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2014

Outline
Housing market intelligence you can count on

Outlook
High Rise vs. Low
Rise
Risks to Forecasts

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Single-Detached Home Prices Outpacing Others


Index (Jan 2011=100)
140
130
130
120
110
100
100
90
Singledetached

80

Townhouse
70

Apartment

60
50
Jan2011

Jan2012

Jan2013

Source: CREA HPI Index for MLS sales, CMHC calculations


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Jan2014

Condominium Apartments Remain the Affordable Choice


Monthly Carrying Costs
CondoApartment,5%DownPayment
Singledetached,5%DownPayment
PurposeBuiltTwobedroomApartmentRent
TwobedroomRentalCondominiumApartmentRent

$4,500
$4,000
$
,
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Assumptions:
Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) a
average
erage single
single-detached
detached and condomini
condominium
m apartment unit
nit price
price. First Time B
Buyer
er uses
ses the MAX AM (pre-2007,
(pre 2007 AM
AM=40
40 Yr
Yr, pre 2008
2008, AM
AM=25
25 Yr
Yr,
2008-2010, AM=35, 2011, AM=30, 2012 and after, AM=25) and 5% down payment, and 5-yr lending rate for up to 2010M03. From 2010M04, uses the Chartered Bank conventional
mortgage rate, 5-yr

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

More High Rise Sales Sites


Number of Active Sales Sites
600
500
400
300
200
Low Rise Active Sites
100
High Rise Active Sites
0
Jan-02

Source: Realnet Inc.

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

Jan-12

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Jan-14

Condos Help Fill Rental Market Supply


Gap in Toronto
Number of Starts
30,000
25 000
25,000
20,000

Condominium Apartment Starts


Rental Apartment Starts

15,000
10766
10,000
5,000
632
0

Source: CMHC Starts & Completions Survey


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Vacancy Rates to Remain Low Despite Increases in


Rental Condominium Unit Supply
Average Vacancy Rate (%)
35
3.5

Purpose-Built Rental Apartments

Rental Condominium Apartments

2.5
2

1.9

1.9
1.8

1.5
1
0.5
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2014F 2015F 2016F

Prime Renter & FTB Age Categories Show


Stronger Job Gains
Growth in Employment,
Toronto CMA
12.0%
10.0%

15 to 24 Yrs
25 to 44 Years
45 to 64 Years

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%

1.8%

1.9%

2012

2013

1.1%

0.0%
2 0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC calculations


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2014

Growing Long-Term Investor Activity


Stock of Rental Condominiums
30%
25.7%
5 %
25%
20%

19.2%

18.8%

2003

2008

15%
10%
5%
0%

Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2013

Stronger Price Appreciation for New Condos


Average Sale Price Per Square Foot, SA
$600

$554

$550
$500

$455

$450
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$

Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC Seasonal adjustment

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Family Circumstances Will Change During


Condominium Unit Completion Cycle

1.5-2 Years
Sales Launch @
P
Pre-construction
t
ti

1.5-2 Years
St t off Construction
Start
C
t
ti

Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Completion & Unit


R d for
Ready
f
Occupancy

Demographic Support for High Rise Homes


Baby Boomers

Growth in Population
25 0%
25.0%

23 6%
23.6%

Mill
Millennials
i l

20.0%
16.4%

15.8%

15.0%
10.0%

10.0%
5.0%

7.7%
2.7%

0.0%
2.7%

5.0%

<15
15

1524
15
24

2534
25
34

3544
35
44

4554
45
54

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006 & 2011


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

5564
55
64

65+
65

International Migrants Will Drive Net Migration


Number of Migrants
120,000
90,000
Net Migration
60,000
30,000
0

Immigration

2016F

2015f

2014f

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

-30,000

Interprovincial , Intraprovincial and Non-permanent

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC forecasts (F)


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Record Level of Condos Under Construction


But Share of Unabsorbed Units Remains Constant
Number of Condominium
Apartments Under
Construction

Share of Unabsorbed
Units at Completion
8%

60,000

7%

50,000

6%
40,000

5%
4%

30,000

3%

20,000

2%
10,000

1%

Source: CMHC Starts & Completions Survey


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Q1 2014

Q1 2012

Q1 2010

Q1 2008

Q1 2006

Q1 2004

Q1 2002

0
Q1 2000

0%

High Level of Condominiums Under Construction will


pp
Steady
y Pace of Completions
p
Support
Number of Condominium Completions
20,000
18 000
18,000

1
10,942

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

14,470

Source: CMHC Starts & Completions Survey

12,389

7,528

12,,212

13,37
74

13,58
81

12,,134

9,798

9,915

4,81
18

7,165

30
4,83

1,924

2,689

1,537
7

7
789

7
707

2 000
2,000

194
3,1

4,000

3,187

6,000

8,581

8,000

10,409

10 000
10,000

12,8
808

12,000

14,948

14,000

17,878

16,000

.....and In-line With Household Formation


Number of Total Housing Completions
45,000
40,000

20,000

32
2,000

33,708
3

31
1,907

33,831
3

31,393

28,356

25 000
25,000

36,258

30,3
357

30,000

38,121

35,000

Average Household Formation

15,000
10 000
10,000
5,000
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2013

2014F

Can Newly Constructed Condominium Apartments Meet


the Growing Demand for More Space?

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Low-rise homes still the popular choice:

Families/move-up
Families/move up buyers
75% of all MLS sales YTD are in
low rise homes in the GTA
55% of all MLS sales YTD are in
low rise homes in the City of Toronto

MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)


Source: TREB
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Sales of Luxury Homes Driven by Equity


Rich Home Buyers
Sales of Single-Detached Homes Priced
$1Million+ as a Share of Total MLS Sales
9%
8%

8%
7%
6%

6%
5%

5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2012 YTD

2013 YTD

MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)


Source: TREB
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2014 YTD

More New Low Rise Home Sales in 905 Regions


New Low Rise Sales, 2014 YTD
TORONTO,
TORONTO
5%

New High Rise Sales, 2014 YTD


PEEL, 3%
DURHAM, 1%
HALTON, 8%

HALTON,
13%
YORK, 36%
DURHAM,
16%

YORK, 11%

TORONTO,
77%
PEEL, 30%

Source: Realnet Inc.


CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Towns Are the New Singles


Growth in MLS Sales
7%

6%
Town

6%

4%

Single

5%

5%

4%

4%

3%
3%

3%

2%

2%
1%
0%
-1%
-1%

-2%
2011

2012

2013

2014 YTD

Source: TREB
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Outline
Housing market intelligence you can count on

Outlook
High Rise vs. Low
Rise
Risks to Forecasts

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Risks To Forecasts
Global political and economic uncertainty
Lower inflow of international migrants
Short-term build up on inventories, especially in the high rise segment

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Thank you/Merci

Questions?

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Contact Information

Dana Senagama
Senior Market Analyst (GTA)
Email: dsenagam@cmhc.ca
dsenagam@cmhc ca
Phone:
(416) 218 3328

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

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