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OUTLOOK 2015/2016
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
HOUSING OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Optional
Photo
City photo Optional
H
Housing
i market
k t iintelligence
t lli
you can countt
on
Outline
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Outlook
High Rise vs. Low Rise
Risks to Forecasts
92,000
2013
0
96,000
2012
92,500
2010
88,946
2009
88,157
88,214
70,000
76,387
80,000
89,255
90,000
91,760
100,000
60,000
2008
2011
80%
60%
40%
2
2016Q01F
2014Q3
2013Q1
2011Q3
2010Q1
2008Q3
2007Q1
2005Q3
2004Q1
20%
9.1%
9%
8%
7.9%
7.5%
7.0%
6.6%
7%
7.0%
6%
5.0%
4.8%
5%
6.5%
4.3%
4%
3%
2.2%
2%
1.8%
0 8%
0.8%
1%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
50,000
,
2014M01
2013M01
2012M01
2011M01
2010M01
2009M01
2008M01
2007M01
2006M01
2005M01
2004M01
2003M01
2002M01
2001M01
2000M01
50,000
40,000
8,500
17,50
00
10,000
9,700
20 000
20,000
18,000
0
30,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F2016F
Apartment
Semi-detached
Row
Single-detached
7.9
76
7.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F2016F
5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Employment
p y
g
growth by
y age
g group
g
p
125
120
115
In
ndex
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
Renters
2011Q1
FTB
2012Q1
Repeat
2013Q1
2014Q1
Incomes Rising
$950
$900
$850
$800
$750
$700
$650
$600
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Equities
q
at All-Time Highs
g
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
$
2009
Source: TSX
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Contributio
on to chang
ge in GDP
2
1
0
1
2
2
3
4
Number of sales
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Existing
g home average
g price:
p
USA
200
190
Price index
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Ontario exports
p
(goods)
(g
) top
p destinations
Mexico
1%
PRC
1%
HongKong
2%
UK
6%
USA
78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ontario exports
p
top
p goods
g
Nickel
1%
2%
MotorVehicle Parts
6%
Gold
10%
Autos
28%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Exchange
g rate: USD/CAD
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
09/01/2012
09/11/2012
09/09/2013
09/07/2014
5Y p
posted mortgage
g g rate
8.00
7.50
7.00
Percenttage
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015F
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Outline
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Outlook
High Rise vs. Low
Rise
Risks to Forecasts
80
Townhouse
70
Apartment
60
50
Jan2011
Jan2012
Jan2013
Jan2014
$4,500
$4,000
$
,
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Assumptions:
Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) a
average
erage single
single-detached
detached and condomini
condominium
m apartment unit
nit price
price. First Time B
Buyer
er uses
ses the MAX AM (pre-2007,
(pre 2007 AM
AM=40
40 Yr
Yr, pre 2008
2008, AM
AM=25
25 Yr
Yr,
2008-2010, AM=35, 2011, AM=30, 2012 and after, AM=25) and 5% down payment, and 5-yr lending rate for up to 2010M03. From 2010M04, uses the Chartered Bank conventional
mortgage rate, 5-yr
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
15,000
10766
10,000
5,000
632
0
2.5
2
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.5
1
0.5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
15 to 24 Yrs
25 to 44 Years
45 to 64 Years
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
1.8%
1.9%
2012
2013
1.1%
0.0%
2 0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
2014
19.2%
18.8%
2003
2008
15%
10%
5%
0%
2013
$554
$550
$500
$455
$450
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$
1.5-2 Years
Sales Launch @
P
Pre-construction
t
ti
1.5-2 Years
St t off Construction
Start
C
t
ti
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Growth in Population
25 0%
25.0%
23 6%
23.6%
Mill
Millennials
i l
20.0%
16.4%
15.8%
15.0%
10.0%
10.0%
5.0%
7.7%
2.7%
0.0%
2.7%
5.0%
<15
15
1524
15
24
2534
25
34
3544
35
44
4554
45
54
5564
55
64
65+
65
Immigration
2016F
2015f
2014f
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-30,000
Share of Unabsorbed
Units at Completion
8%
60,000
7%
50,000
6%
40,000
5%
4%
30,000
3%
20,000
2%
10,000
1%
Q1 2014
Q1 2012
Q1 2010
Q1 2008
Q1 2006
Q1 2004
Q1 2002
0
Q1 2000
0%
1
10,942
14,470
12,389
7,528
12,,212
13,37
74
13,58
81
12,,134
9,798
9,915
4,81
18
7,165
30
4,83
1,924
2,689
1,537
7
7
789
7
707
2 000
2,000
194
3,1
4,000
3,187
6,000
8,581
8,000
10,409
10 000
10,000
12,8
808
12,000
14,948
14,000
17,878
16,000
20,000
32
2,000
33,708
3
31
1,907
33,831
3
31,393
28,356
25 000
25,000
36,258
30,3
357
30,000
38,121
35,000
15,000
10 000
10,000
5,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
Families/move-up
Families/move up buyers
75% of all MLS sales YTD are in
low rise homes in the GTA
55% of all MLS sales YTD are in
low rise homes in the City of Toronto
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2012 YTD
2013 YTD
2014 YTD
HALTON,
13%
YORK, 36%
DURHAM,
16%
YORK, 11%
TORONTO,
77%
PEEL, 30%
6%
Town
6%
4%
Single
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-1%
-2%
2011
2012
2013
2014 YTD
Source: TREB
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Outline
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Outlook
High Rise vs. Low
Rise
Risks to Forecasts
Risks To Forecasts
Global political and economic uncertainty
Lower inflow of international migrants
Short-term build up on inventories, especially in the high rise segment
Thank you/Merci
Questions?
Contact Information
Dana Senagama
Senior Market Analyst (GTA)
Email: dsenagam@cmhc.ca
dsenagam@cmhc ca
Phone:
(416) 218 3328