Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Stability Report
September 2010
Volume 9 | Number 2
ISSN 2179-5398
CNPJ 00.038.166/0001-05
Braslia
v. 9
n. 2
September
2010
p. 1-54
Reproduction permitted only if source is stated as follows: Financial Stability Report, Volume 9, n. 2.
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Phones: +55 (61) 3414-3710 and 3414-3565
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E-mail: editor@bcb.gov.br
Statistical Conventions:
...
0 ou 0,0
*
Hyphen (-) between years (1970-75) indicates the years covered, including the first and last year.
A bar (/) between years (1970/75) indicates the average of the years covered, including the first and last year or even crop or agreement year, when
mentioned in the text.
Occasional discrepancies between constituent figures and totals as well as percentage changes are due to rounding.
There are no references to sources in tables and graphs originated in the Banco Central do Brasil.
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Banco Central do Brasil
Secre/Surel/Diate
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Fax: +55 (61) 3414-2553
Internet: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
Summary
Presentation
Executive summary
Introduction ________________________________________________________________
Liquidity ___________________________________________________________________
Credit _____________________________________________________________________
Earnings ___________________________________________________________________
Solvency ___________________________________________________________________
Capital stress tests ____________________________________________________________
2.6.1 Stress tests for market risk ________________________________________________
2.6.1.1 Sensitivity analysis _______________________________________________
2.6.1.2 Scenario analysis _________________________________________________
2.6.2 Stress tests for credit risk _________________________________________________
2.6.2.1 Sensitivity analysis _______________________________________________
2.6.2.2 Ad hoc scenario analysis ___________________________________________
2.6.2.3 Scenario analysis based on stress of macroeconomic variables _____________
17
17
18
21
23
25
27
27
27
28
28
28
29
29
36
43
Boxes
National Finacial System Regulation _____________________________________________
Anticrisis Measures Reversion __________________________________________________
Backtesting Credit Risk Assets Clearinghouses ___________________________________
Credit Unions and Settlement Accounts ___________________________________________
New Banks and Foreign Participation Recent Evolution ____________________________
Annex
30
33
41
46
47
48
Appendix
51
Presentation
September 2010
| 5
September 2010
| 6
Executive summary
September 2010
| 7
September 2010
| 8
1.1 Introduction
2.27
2009
5.1
7.3
9.4
Ireland
11.6
Spain
1.8
2010
3.12
5.14
Greece
7.16
Portugal
Source: Thomson
9.20
1.28
2008
6.4
11.2
3.10 7.16
2010
UK FTSE 100
Germany DAX
USA S&P500
Source: Thomson
September 2010
| 9
400
330
260
190
120
50
1.5
2007
5.15
9.20
1.28
2008
Korea
6.4
10.10 2.17
2009
India
6.25
11.2
3.10
2010
Mexico
7.16
Turkey
Source: Thomson
100
80
60
40
20
0
2.15 5.14
2008
8.11
11.6
2.3
2009
5.1
7.16
Source: Bloomberg
Characterizing risk aversion increase in the period, longterm bond yields in mature economies US, Japan, UK
and Germany receded, indicating that market concerns
over deficit sustainability are still restricted to a determined
group of countries in the European continent (chart 1.5).
In exchange markets, Euro retracted against the US dollar,
reflecting the European economic tensions and retreated to
US$1.19 on June 7, the lowest since June 2006 (chart 1.6
and chart 1.7).
2,4
1,2
0,0
11.23 2.28
2007 2008
6.4
USA
9.9
12.15 3.20
2009
Germany
6.25
9.30
1.5
2010
4.12
UK
Source: Bloomberg
7.16
Japan
September 2010
| 10
80
70
1.4 3.28 6.20 9.12 12.5 2.27 5.22 8.14 11.6 1.29 4.23 7.16
2008
2009
2010
Pound sterling/Dollar
Yen/Dollar
Euro/Dollar
Source: Bloomberg
9.19.2003 = 100
160
142
124
106
88
70
1.4 3.28 6.20 9.12 12.5 2.27 5.22 8.14 11.6 1.29 4.23 7.16
2008
2009
2010
South African rand/Dollar
Russian rublo/Dollar
Turkish lira/Dollar
Won/Dollar
Source: Bloomberg
Points
210
168
126
84
42
0
2.15 5.14
2008
8.11
11.6
2.3
2009
5.1
7.16
Source: Thomson
1/ European index is the aritmethic average for HSBC, UBS, Santander, BNP
Paribas and Deutsche Bank's 5-year CDS premiums. Since it's not a random
sample, it may not reflect the behavior of the financial system as a whole.
3/ Amounts refer to financial institutions ensured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
September 2010
| 11
Points
400
320
240
160
80
0
2.15
2008
5.14
8.11
11.6
2.3
2009
5.1
4.20
7.16
Source: Thomson
1/ USA index is the aritmethic average for Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan,
Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo 5-year CDS premiums. Since it's not a random
sample, it may not reflect the behavior of the financial system as a whole.
375
300
225
150
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2009
2010
Embi+Brazil
Jul
Embi+
Source: Bloomberg
Yield % p.y.
13
12
11
10
9
8
Jul
2009
Sep
Nov
Jan
2010
One-day Selic
1 year
Sources: BM&FBovespa and BCB
Mar
3 months
2 years
May
Jul
6 months
3 years
4/ In a semester characterized by the lowering of several sovereign debt ratings, Fitch rating agency revised Brazils foreign currency rating trend as stable
to positive, as a result of the Brazilian economy greater resilience to the financial crisis.
5/ CMN Resolutions n. 3,584 of July 1, 2008; n. 3,748 of June 30, 2009; and n. 3,880 of June 22, 2010, respectively established 2010, 2011 and 2012 inflation
target rate at 4.5% and tolerance intervals at 2.0 p.p. below and above target.
September 2010
| 12
Date
1 year
2 years
3 years
9.11.2009
8,65
8,64
8,71
9,12
10,67
12.30.2009
8,65
8,74
9,21
10,46
11,84
11,49
12,42
3.16.2010
8,65
9,23
9,92
10,90
11,75
11,97
3.18.2010
8,65
9,01
9,68
10,68
11,67
11,97
5.3.2010
9,40
9,98
10,86
11,79
12,60
12,68
6.7.2010
9,40
10,43
10,89
11,48
11,96
11,99
6.15.2010
10,15
10,61
11,16
11,88
12,45
12,49
7.16.2010
10,16
10,89
11,09
11,47
11,84
11,94
1 year
12.30.2009
2 years
3.16.2010
3 years
5.3.2010
7.16.2010
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2009
2010
Short
Sources: BM&FBovespa and BCB
6/
Medium
Long
Jul
Brazilian Central Bank Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) rose 2.9% in the de-seasoned series, in the semester, keeping relatively stable in the second quarter.
7/ Credit stock went up 8.1% in the semester, and 19.7% in the twelve-month accumulated. In June it already represented 45.7% of the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP).
8/ Copom additionally increased Selic target rate by 0.75 p.p. totaling a 1.5 p.p. increase in the semester.
9/ National Industry Confederation (CNI) Installed Capacity Use Level (Nuci) went up from 80.82% in January to 82.92% in April, falling back to 82.68%
in de-seasoned June series.
September 2010
| 13
5,0
4,8
4,5
4,3
4,0
Jul Aug
2009
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan Feb
2010
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Inflation Target
EUR/US$
2,55
0,85
2,35
0,81
2,15
0,77
1,95
0,73
1,75
0,69
0,65
1,55
Jul
2009
Sep
Nov
Jan
2010
R$/US$
Mar
May
Jul
EUR/US$
Source: Bloomberg
Jul
September 2010
| 14
11/ In the third and fourth quarters of 2009, seasonally adjusted GNP growth rate went up 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively, in relation to the previous quarter. In
the first quarter of 2010 it grew 2.7% in relation to the previous quarter and 9.0% in inter-annual terms.
12/ In June, BCB quarterly inflation forecast related to 2010 GNP growth were revised from 5.8% to7.2%, even after 2009 fiscal incentives being
withdrawn.
13/ In the first semester of 2010 Brazilian Internal Revenue Service collected R$379.5 billion, a 12.48%increase compared to the first half of 2009.
14/ Twelve-month accumulated primary surplus reached R$69.4 billion (2.07% of GNP) in June 2010, while nominal deficit totaled R$112.2 billion (3.35%
of GDP).
15/ Including open market balance, debt goes up 2.2% in the semester.
16/ Average stock term went up 0.4 month in the semester, and 0.6 month in the year, while issues grew 5.9 and 7.6 month respectively.
17/ On January 6, 2010, volume reached R$547.3 billion the highest since December 1999, when the Press Release on open market operations began to
be published.
18/ R$89 billion were retained as of March 22, owing to additional requirement, out of which 5.6% came from currency deposits. As of April 9, reserve
requirement went back to pre-crisis levels, and currency deposits responded for 42.3% of the additional R$57.4 billion. For further information of recent
changes in reserve requirement rates, see box Anti-crisis Measures Reversion, in chapter 2 of this report.
September 2010
| 15
19/ Futures contract maturing January 2011 was the longest negotiated and concentrated 30.6% of the average daily number of contracts negotiated.
20/ Non-resident investors (INR) kept US$2 billion daily average bought position during the first half of 2010. However in April INR took an average sold
position that reached US$3.9 billion.
21/ MSCI EM index represents emerging countries securities exchange behavior measured by Morgan Stanley.
September 2010
| 16
2.1 Introduction
0
Jul Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr
2008
2009
Large
Medium
Small
Jun
Micro
250
200
150
100
Jun
2008
Sep
Dec
Mar
2009
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
2010
Jun
22/ For the purpose of this chapter, banking system is defined as the group of institutions such as commercial banks, multiple banks, savings banks, investment
banks, and financial conglomerates comprising at least one such institution. Development banks are not included in the analysis.
23/ Total assets less brokerage. Concept used in reports of the fifty largest banks and the consolidated SFN report, available at BCB site. Along this chapter,
adjustment such as elimination, reclassification and balancing, were implemented on variables, aiming at adequating variables for analysis purposes.
These procedures are described at the annex Concepts & Methodologies.
24/ Aside from banking system, SFN comprehends the following institutions: development banks, credit unions, development agencies, savings and loans
associations, mortgage companies, leasing companies, exchange brokers, securities brokers, credit, financing and investment companies, real estate
financing companies, micro-financing institutions, and securities dealers.
September 2010
| 17
Dec
Jun
2009
Dec
Jun
2010
Time deposits
Savings
Liabilities on loans
On demand deposits
Others
145
130
115
100
85
Jun
2009
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
2010
Apr
Large banks
Jun
2.2 Liquidity
Others
Net funding
(R$ billions)
1.100
18
1.050
1.000
950
-9
900
-18
Jul
2009
Sep
Nov
Jan
2010
Mar
May
NAV
September 2010
| 18
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
2010
Apr
Large banks
Jun
Others
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2010
Mar
Jun
DPGE
Dec
2004
Dec
2006
Dec
2008
Dec
2010
Dec
2012
Loans/Funding
Dec
2014
Dec
2016
September 2010
| 19
R$ billions
3.000
100
2.400
80
1.800
60
1.200
40
600
20
0
0
Jun
2005
Jun
2006
Jun
2007
Jun
2008
Jun
2009
Jun
2010
<3 monts
3-12 months
1-3 years
3-5 years
5-15 years
>15 years
Undated
Total
21
14
0
Jul
2007
Oct
Feb May
2008
Sep
Dec
Apr
2009
Total Liquidity
Aug
Nov
Mar
2010
Jun
Excess Liquidity
%
12
10
4
Mar
2008
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
2009
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
2010
Jun
27/ Considering deposits, repo obligations, domestic and foreign loans and on-lending operations. Demand and savings deposits maturities were estimated
between three and twelve months.
September 2010
| 20
2.3 Credit
120
110
100
90
Jun
2009
Aug
Oct
Dec
Total
Feb
2010
Apr
Jun
Working capital
Investment
Size of debt
Jun/10Jun/08
Number of clients
(Jun/10)
0,7%
1,2%
958
1,5%
1,5%
7.551
1,6%
2,4%
51.740
1,6%
2,3%
455.280
1,0%
1,7%
1.771.317
Total
1,1%
1,8%
2.286.846
Size of debt
(R$ millions)
Jun/10Dec/09
Jun/10Jun/08
Outstanding
debt
(Jun/2010)
(R$billions)
% of total
loans
> 100
1,0%
1,8%
263
10 < x 100
1,8%
1,5%
160
39%
24%
1 < x 10
1,4%
2,2%
111
17%
0,1 < x 1
1,6%
2,5%
98
15%
0,1
0,8%
1,1%
35
5%
Total
1,3%
1,8%
668
100%
28/ Comprising SFN credit portfolio, foreign banks carry 17.6%, national private banks, 38.7%, and public-owned banks, 43.7%. Its worth mentioning the
strong increase in development banks credit portfolio.
29/ Comprising SFN credit portfolio, corporate loans increased 8.1%.
September 2010
| 21
Write-offs Write-offs to
in 12
total loans
months
ratio
Size of debt
Provisions
(R$billions)
0,9
0,4%
4,4
2,9
1,8%
4,8
4,9
4,4%
6,0
8,1
8,2%
8,3
3,2
9,1%
3,5
20,0
3,0%
27,1
Total
145
130
115
100
Jun
2009
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
2010
Apr
Total
Automobile
Housing
Jun
2009
portfolio share
in total credit
2010
2010
Jun
Jun
Jun
Dec
7,4
7,9
9,0
44,0
Vehicles (+ Leasing)
4,9
5,1
5,6
11,1
Housing
1,0
0,9
0,9
6,9
2,7
3,3
3,2
7,9
Personal loans
13,3
15,1
13,3
3,9
Overdraft accounts
15,4
20,6
24,2
1,3
Credit card
47,0
45,6
58,3
1,5
Others
8,4
8,8
12,0
11,5
Corporate
Households
2,0
2,7
6,1
55,9
Working capital
3,4
4,5
6,1
22,4
Investments
1,0
1,3
1,4
25,0
0,3
0,5
0,9
7,9
11,4
11,8
11,4
0,7
Others
write-offs by portfolio
30/ One should note that portfolio increase analysis under this section refers to evolution of outstanding amounts, which is increased by grantings and reduced
by amortizations, settlements and write-offs.
September 2010
| 22
80
60
40
20
0
Jan
2008
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
2009
Apr
Jul
Provisions
Oct
Jan
2010
Apr
E to H rated loans
8
7
6
5
4
3
Dec
2008
Feb
2009
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
E to H rated loans
Feb
2010
Apr
Jun
%
30
24
18
4
14
0
12
73
2
7
3
0
1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 >2,0
2.4 Earnings
September 2010
| 23
2009
Dec
Jun
2010
Dec
Jun
Households
21
22
23
24
25
Vehicles (+ Leasing)
18
18
18
18
18
Housing
54
56
57
58
62
23
23
25
25
26
Personal loans
13
14
14
16
16
Others
15
14
15
15
15
Corporate
18
18
18
19
21
Working Capital
14
13
12
13
12
Investments
27
28
30
32
35
Others
16
16
15
17
21
1st sem/10
Change
94,4
96,0
1,6
-33,3
-29,6
3,6
-31,2
-29,9
1,4
-2,8
-6,2
-3,4
4,0
1,4
-2,6
Intermediation Result
Non-Operating Result
Income Taxes and Contributions
-7,4
-6,5
0,9
Net Profit
23,7
25,2
1,5
50
40
30
20
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Individuals
Jan
2009
Corporates
Jan
2010
September 2010
| 24
18
12
6
0
Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
%
15
30
12
24
18
12
0
Jun
2008
Dec
Semestral profit
Jun
2009
Dec
Semestral selic
Jun
2010
Semestral ROE
6,0
Result
(R$ billions)
70
4,8
56
3,6
42
2,4
28
1,2
14
Return (%)
0,0
0
Jun
2008
Dec
Jun
2009
Dec
Jun
2010
2.5 Solvency
33/ CMN Resolution n. 3,825 of December 16, 2009, revoked this permission as of April 1, 2010.
34/ BCB Circular n. 3,383 of March 12, 2009 defined values and calendar of changes in Z multiplier for inclusion of the portion relating to operational risk
in MRC.
September 2010
| 25
R$ billions
35
45
28
36
21
27
14
18
0
Jun
2008
Dec
Jun
2009
Dec
Jun
2010
Provisions expenses
Provisions expenses/Interest income
R$ millions
Change
1H 2010
2H 2009
Tariff revenues
6.402,2
5.661,3
13,1
2.610,1
2.942,6
(11,3)
7.422,4
6.877,3
7,9
714,8
641,0
11,5
4.406,1
3.975,8
10,8
2.208,7
2.052,7
7,6
1.019,3
1.043,3
(2,3)
65
60
52
57
39
54
26
51
13
48
45
Jun
2008
Dec
Jun
2009
Dec
Jun
2010
Administrative expenses
Revenues from services
Coverage of administrative expenses with revenues from services
35/ See Concepts & Methodologies in this report, for definition of non-usual and low liquidity assets.
36/ See Concepts & Methodologies, in this report, for definition of fixed assets to capital ratio.
37/ Resolution n. 3,355, 2006 establishes that financial institutions can register deferred tax assets as long as there are grounds, through technical studies, to
condone the performance of such assets within ten years maximum.
38/ Basle Committee is negotiating the review of current prudential rules applicable to the international financial system, known as Basle 3. In general,
new capital rules for required capital will call for expressive adjustments from Banks around the world, in amounts that the Basle Committee is seeking
to estimate. In Brazil, impacts should be less intense. Based on simulations performed, additional capital needs in the national banking system should not
be significant and, it is expected that they can be, in great part, will be met just with retained profits along the transition period.
September 2010
| 26
2H 2009
5.197,6
4.945,5
5,1
5.350,1
5.076,4
5,4
Installations
3.457,9
3.236,8
6,8
Third-party services
5.211,7
4.962,9
5,0
1.496,7
1.827,4
(18,1)
1.318,4
1.234,8
6,8
Security
1.057,4
1.021,5
3,5
%
100
20
80
16
60
12
40
20
0
Jun
2008
Dec
Jun
2009
Dec
Jun
2010
R$ billions
400
20
320
16
240
12
160
80
Tier 2
Jun
2008
Dec
Tier 1
Jun
2009
MRC
Dec
Dec
2007
Jun
2010
Basel capital ratio
39/ For further details in methodology adopted, see Concepts & Methodologies in this report.
September 2010
| 27
25,0
-14,1
8,0
12
-0,7
10,8
6
0
A = Net Profit
B = Distributed Interest on Capital and Dividends
C = Change on regulation concerning additional provisions for loans
Scenarios
1 month
6 months
2 years
3,4
5,7
5,9
-3,1
-4,1
-4,3
-3,1
-4,1
-4,3
Interest rate
Increase
Decrease
Worst
-0,5
0,4
R$ billions
25
-0,1
4,1
20
15
22,9
18,4
10
5
0
A
40/ Evaluated scenarios consist of: 1) interest rates increase/reduction; 2) foreign exchange rate depreciation/appreciation; 3) interest rate increase and foreign
exchange depreciation.
41/ Sharp changes in interest rates cause increases in capital requirement. When interest rates rise, there is also a negative impact in capital adequacy index,
due to reduction in banking system net worth, once institutions are usually long in interest rates. Nevertheless, a decrease in interest rates still has a more
severe impact in capital requirement than an increase.
42/ For further information, see Concepts & Methodologies in this report.
September 2010
| 28
Assets (%)
20
12
15
10
Positive
0
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Assets (%)
20
75
16
60
Macro Stress Test
(Dec/2011)
Provisions
12
45
30
15
0
4
10
12
14
16
18
Estimated nonperforming
Loans (%)
16
12
0
Jun
2010
Sep
Dec
Mar
2011
Jun
Sep
Dec
Provisions (Jun/2010)
September 2010
| 29
September 2010
| 30
Derivatives registration
Regulation on financial derivative instruments
registration has been under constant improvement
in the past years so as to allow BCB to monitor
operations closed in the country or abroad by financial
institutions and other economic agents located in
Brazilian jurisdiction.
Operations carried by financial institutions and others
authorized by BCB to operate are already subject
to registration rules on deals closed in the country.
CMN Resolution n. 2,873, as of July 26, 2001, sets
forth that over the counter derivatives operations
carried by these institutions, proprietary or third party
operations, must be registered within the systems
managed by securities exchange, by commodities
and futures exchange, or by other entities duly
authorized to operate by BCB or Securities and
Exchange Commission (CVM). Such registration
requirement was widened by CMN Resolution
n. 3,505, as of October 26, 2007, which conditioned
any over the counter OTC) derivatives market
operation, proprietary or third party operation, to
be carried through as long as it is duly registered
within an authorized system. More recently, CMN
Resolution n. 3,824, of December 16, 2009, extended
this registration obligation to financial institutions on
derivatives deals closed abroad.
Regulation is seeking to follow up derivatives
contracts made abroad by other economic agents,
upon intermediation by a national financial institution.
Thus, BCB Circular n. 3,474, of November 11, 2009
Financial Letter
As a result of international liquidity shock at the end
of 2008, foreign financing access was closed, and
several measures were taken to avoid internal market
contagion and sustain credit flow.
The main financial institutions funding source,
Banking Deposit Certificate (CDB) was not a viable
solution for medium and long-term financing, due to
the contractual domestic financial market tradition
of the issuing party guaranteeing repurchase of its
papers at any given time.
By means of Provisional Measure n. 472, of December
15, 2009, afterwards turned into Law n. 12,249, of
June 11, 2010, the Financial Letter was created to
counteract this scenario. This credit instrument must
be repaid in cash and it is nominal, transferable and
freely negotiable. Issuance is exclusive of financial
institutions. Financial letters were regulated by CMN
Resolution n. 3,836, of February 25, 2010.
This title was created to provide financial institutions
with a legally sound instrument to assess medium and
long-term financing and propitiate an adequate liquidity
management. Minimum maturity was set at twenty four
months, and total or partial early redemption, before
contractual maturity, is not permitted.
September 2010
| 31
September 2010
| 32
During the 2007 international financial crisis, which more strongly hit Brazil in the second half of 2008, the Banco
Central do Brasil (BCB) and the Conselho Monetrio Nacional (CMN) took several steps towards maintaining
the National Financial System (SFN) stability.
These measures can be summed up in five large groups. The first group aimed at increasing banking reserves and
federal public securities liquidity. The means to do so was through financial institutions reserves requirement
reductions (table 1).
Table 1
Item
Demand deposits
Jun 08
Jun 09
Time deposits
Jun 08
Dec 08
Savings deposits
(Rural)
Jun 08
Additional Requirements
Jun 08
Jun 09
Time
Sav.
Interbanking Deposits
of Leasing
Companies
Jun 09
Dem.
Time
Sav.
Jun 08
Jun 09
N/A
Dem.
Deductions
before ratio
(BRL millions)
Deduction after
ratio (BRL
millions)
N/A
N/A
300
2.000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Ratio
45%
42%
15%
13,5%
20%
15%
8%
10%
8%
4%
10%
5%
5%
N/A
Currency
accomplishme
nt, no yield
yes
yes
N.A.
yes (60%)1/
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Currency
accomplishme
nt, with yield
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Federal Public
Securities
accomplishme
nt
N.A.
N.A.
yes
yes (40%)
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
yes
yes
yes
yes
N.A.
44
44
30
30
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
100
1000
1/ According to Circular n. 3,427 from 12/19/2008, large size banks could reduce time deposits currency requirements without yield by acquisition of small
size banks as well as they could reduce up to 20% of the no yield currency requirement by foreign currency acquisitions with Banco Central do Brasil.
The second group, which may be viewed as a subgroup of the first one, drew an incentive mechanism, so that
large size financial institutions would apport liquidity to smaller size institutions, through reserve requirement
conditional reductions (table 1).
The third group bears relation to the role performed by the Brazilian deposit insurance corporation the Fundo
Garantidor de Crdito (FGC). The scope of FGCs insured deposits was widened through the inception of a
September 2010
| 33
new time deposit mode: the Special Guaranteed Time Deposit (DPGE). Furthermore, FGCs assets profile was
adjusted and extended through increased limits for several investments and anticipation of receivables combined
with institutions reserve requirements reductions, should these institutions chose to do so.
The fourth and fifth groups used the financial system to instill liquidity into certain sectors of the economy. The
fourth group increased institutions obligation to invest in rural credit, with a reduction in reserve requirements
as counterpart (table 1). Lastly, the fifth group focused on foreign trade, providing US dollars liquidity to banks,
conditioned upon extension of credit to companies.
Group one measures were partially revoked. CMN Resolution n. 3,705 of March 26, 2009, BCB Circular
n. 3,485 and Circular n. 3,486 of February 24, 2010, and Circular n. 3,497 of June 24, 2010, returned reserve
requirement rates to their initial levels, but amounts related to the deductions were not totally reversed, since
for smaller size institutions some liquidity relief was maintained (table 2).
Table 2
Item
Demand deposits
Jun 08
Jun 10
Time deposits
Jun 08
Jun 10
Savings deposits
Jun 08
Additional Requirements
Jun 10
Time
44
44
30
30
N/A
N/A
Jun 08
Sav. Dem. Time
Interbanking Deposits
of Leasing Companies
Jun 10
Sav. Dem.
N/A
N/A
100
[0,2000]
Jun 08
Jun 10
N/A
N/A
N/A
300
[0,2000]
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
45%
43%
15%
15%
20%
16%
8%
10%
8%
8%
10%
8%
5%
N/A
yes
yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
N/A
No
No
No
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
No
N/A
No
No
yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
yes
N/A
Group two measures are still in force. Actually, they were extended by BCB norm Circular n. 3,499 of June 29,
2010, which set December 31, 2010 as the deadline for portfolio purchase and interfinance deposits.
Group three measures were partly reversed. The increase in scope and investment limit are still in force, while
contributions anticipation and corresponding reserve requirement releases are following a final schedule to end
their effects that are being complied with.
Table 3 Phasing out schedule liberations including rural credit
Requirement
jul
2008
45%
jul
2009
42%
jul
2010
43%
jul
2011
43%
jul
2012
44%
jul
2013
44%
jul
2014
45%
Application
25%
30%
29%
28%
27%
26%
25%
Requirement
20%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
Application
65%
70%
69%
68%
67%
66%
65%
Types
Demand
Deposits
Rural Savings
Group four measures, although not completely reversed, already have a phasing out schedule that is being
complied with. Table 3 shows the whole schedule.
September 2010
| 34
Group five measures were completely reversed. There is no longer an open BCB credit line, and all of them
were settled early or upon maturity.
So, to sum up the quantitative impact of these measures reversion, it suffices to compare the total amount of
reserve requirements with how much it would have been in case rules had not been changed, owing to such
anticrisis measures (groups 1 and 2) (figure 1).
Chart 1 Reserve requirement
Simulation from January 2008 to June 2010
R$ billions
334,1
52,3
340
300
260
281,8
220
180
140
Jan
2008
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
2009
Previous rules
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
2010
Apr
Jun
Current rules
September 2010
| 35
3.1 Introduction
%
15
12
80
60
40
20
0
6:30
8:00
Accumulated %
100
15
80
12
60
9
40
6
20
3
0
0
6:30
8:00
Average percentage
September 2010
| 36
140
0
Jul Aug
2009
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan Feb
2010
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2009
2010
1st sem.
Nbr of FI
1/
Nbr of FI
1/
0% to 10%
11
74,6
85
95,7
10% to 20%
17
2,5
10
2,3
20% to 30%
8,2
1,0
30% to 40%
13
2,0
0,5
40% to 50%
20
9,3
0,3
50% to 60%
15
1,4
0,1
60% to 70%
13
0,2
0,1
70% to 80%
0,5
0,0
0,0
1,2
0,0
80% to 90%
90% to 100%
Total
107 100,0
4 000
80
3 200
60
2 400
40
1 600
20
800
0
1.27
2.22
3.16
4.8
5.3
107 100,0
1.4
2010
5.25
6.17
Financial risk
43/ Along the last quarter of 2008, BCB put forward a series of measures to reduce liquidity concentration and ease credit flow, both within the financial
system and the non-financial segment. Among them it is worth mentioning liberation of earmarked reserve requirement funds. However, over intraday
liquidity, reserve requirement reductions meant a decrease in funds availability for within STR payments. In the first half of 2010, BCB began to recompose
reserve requirements level, which is reflecting in this source of intraday liquidity.
September 2010
| 37
160
30
120
20
80
10
40
0
1.4
2010
1.26
2.18
3.11
4.1
4.26
5.17
6.8
6.29
Financial risk
20
12
16
12
0
1.4
2010
1.22
2.10
3.3
3.22
4.9
4.29
5.18
6.8
6.25
Financial risk
2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Stocks
45,3
45,0
37,8
46,2
43,9
45,7
Government bonds
41,3
41,2
42,7
44,1
46,2
46,2
International bonds
9,0
9,8
5,7
5,9
6,2
4,4
2/
0,7
0,7
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,6
3/
2,4
2,0
2,1
2,0
1,8
1,9
Cash
1,0
0,9
1,4
0,8
1,0
0,9
Others
0,2
0,4
9,8
0,4
0,3
0,3
LG
CD
44/ RFL represents the cost the clearinghouse would face to close the portfolio of a defaulting participant, less its total guarantees, based on real assets price
variations. Therefore it represents the portion of risk exposure not covered by individual participants guarantees. Each day, two participants to which the
clearinghouse is more exposed are considered, i.e., two participants with higher RFL value.
September 2010
| 38
2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Government bonds
88,4
88,8
88,9
89,5
89,7
90,1
Letters guarantee
2,8
3,0
3,2
3,1
3,3
2,9
CD
2,6
2,1
1,9
2,0
2,0
1,9
Stocks
4,9
5,2
4,9
4,2
3,9
4,1
Gold
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
Cash
1,0
0,8
0,9
1,0
0,8
0,7
Others
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
Discrimination
Max1/
N2/
Confidence
of VAR3/
Ibovespa spot
-47%
38%
0%
99%
USD spot
-27%
27%
0%
99%
Fixed rate 42
-4%
4%
0%
99%
-5%
6%
0%
99%
-7%
10%
0%
99%
-7%
12%
0%
99%
DDI 180
4/
-20%
14%
0%
99%
DDI 360
-10%
10%
0%
99%
DDI 1080
-13%
10%
0%
99%
1.26
2.17
3.11
4.2
4.24
5.16
6.7
6.29
* Estimates made with a rolling window of the last three months (63 days).
45/ Accuracy level is defined as correctness ratio of a risk management model within a given period of time. For central counterpart clearinghouse (CPC),
accuracy level results from number of times that guarantees required from participants was higher than CPC effectively incurred risk, divided by total
participants whose risk exposure was verified in a set period of time.
46/ Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (2004), Recommendations for Central Counterparties Bank for International Settlements (BIS), March.
September 2010
| 39
Table 3.5 Overview of the Brazilian Payments System 1st semester 2010
Payment system
Main settled
Ownership
operations
Turnover
Volume
Daily
Type of
Daily
3/
average
Netting Liquidity
settlement
Central
3/
rate
counterparty
saving
4/
Daily average
average
Payment clearing
and settlement
systems
STR
0,8
3,4
0,9
4,0
RTGS
68,8
DNS
0,6
0,6
Yes
4,5
0,2
DNS
0,7
3,0
Yes
0,8
0,0
DNS
0,5
0,5
Yes
0,2
0,0
RTGS /
No
7,1
483,4
DNS
0,9
6,5
Yes
14,9
3,6
RTGS /
No
11,6
22,9
DNS
0,3
3,2
No
public
509,2
48,1
RTGS
private
private
23,7
311,1
Hybrid
4,1
7601,4
DNS
public
4,3
4783,9
DNS
mixed
446,2
5,1
private
1,1
private
private
1/
CIP-Sitraf
TED
CIP-Siloc
Compe
Securities clearing
and settlement
systems
Selic
Federal government
securities
BM&FBovespaDerivatives
Clearing house
BM&FBovespaForeign Exchange
Clearing house
BM&FBovespaSecurities
Clearing house
CBLC
Commodities, Futures,
Options and Swaps
Interbank foreign
exchange
Federal government
securities
Stocks and corporate
private
bonds
Cetip
Swaps, Corporate
bonds, state and
private
municipal treasure
bills
1/ Including bilateral settlement of cheques with individual value of at least R$250 thousand and "bloquetos de cobrana" with individual
value of at least R$5 thousand.
2/ TED Electronic Funds Transfers on behalf of customers as well as by its own.
3/ R$ billion.
4/ Thousand operations.
September 2010
| 40
September 2010
| 41
8.15.08
12.26.08
5.8.09
9.18.09
1.29.10
6.11.10
* Estimates made with a rolling window of the last three months (63 days).
September 2010
| 42
4.1 Introduction
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jun
Banks
Multiples
135
140
139
139
77
78
86
86
10
Domestic
1/
Foreing
1/
48
55
53
53
20
18
18
19
Domestic
without foreing participation
with foreing participation
12
11
11
12
Foreing
under foreing control
Foreing banks full branches
Development
Investment
17
17
16
16
Exchange
Saving banks
Leasing
38
36
33
32
52
55
59
61
18
16
16
15
107
107
105
101
46
45
45
45
135
135
125
125
12
12
14
15
591
592
581
580
1 465
1 453
1 405
1 388
52
47
45
45
2 108
2 092
2 031
2 013
329
317
308
302
2 437
2 409
2 339
2 315
Associations
The first half of 2010 did not bring events causing impact
over the structure of the National Financial System (SFN),
mainly because there were no mergers and acquisitions
taking place. Institutions strategies were focused in their
organic growth, despite the fact that the number of branches
reduced between December 2009 and June 2010 from
20.046 to 19.830 still as a result of large banks mergers in
the past semesters.
In non-banking segment BCB directives related to suppliers
of tourism services (those which were authorized to purchase
and sell foreign currency in cash, checks and travelers checks)
were the highlights. Travel agencies operating under the old
regulation are striving to adjust to the new rules, and seeking
to act as correspondents to institutions already dealing in
this segment or by becoming an authorized institution. It
is also worth mentioning the permission of credit unions to
access Settlement Accounts that favors this group of nonbanking institutions with greater competitiveness against
the banking sector.
Along the same line, there still the persistent interest of
foreign capitals towards the SFN. This foreign investments
are made under directives drawn by BCB, which are focused
on stimulating competition either as alternative sources
of credit to economic agents, or as innovative instruments
to introduce new technologies and improved international
financial systems practices and, additionally, on facilitating
placement of securities and access to credit lines abroad.
September 2010
| 43
Organic changes were punctual (table 4.1 and table 4.2) and
circumscribed to the following:
Events
Authorizations
Cancelations
Transfers
of control
Acquisitions
17
Splits
Changes of
business
objective
- input
- ouput
1
-
Change of type
21
Paralisations
Amount Equity
Total
Deposits
4/
Credit
1/
Banking
Government
2/
Private
10
12,9
28,9
33,7
42,1
149
87,5
71,1
66,3
57,9
89
65,6
52,6
50,2
39,4
54
21,1
18,4
16,1
18,5
0,3
0,1
0,0
0,0
159
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
Domestic
investiment banks
on April 16th, 2010 Standard Chartered Bank (Brasil)
S.A. Banco de Investimento was authorized to operate;
on October 5 th , 2009 Banco Safra BSI S.A. was
transformed from an investment bank to a multiple bank.
foreign exchange banks
on January 29th, 2010 Banco Confidence de Cambio S.A.
was authorized to operate.
In fact, there was only one new institution comprising the
segment of national private commercial banks, while all
other segments remained unaltered.
Domestic with
foreign
3/
ownership
Foreign banks
full branches
Total
commercial banks
on January 29th, 2010 Banco Petra S.A. was authorized
to operate.
operation
assets
owned
multiple banks
on February 12 th, 2010 Banco Gerdau S.A had its
authorization to operate cancelled;
on November 5 th, 2010 Banco Safra BSI S.A. was
transformed from an investment bank to a multiple bank.
Itemization
Foreign control
Minority foreign capital
Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jun
130
122
134
130
133
57
61
72
83
80
187
183
206
213
213
September 2010
| 44
Banks
1/
Foreign
Domestic private
Multi- Comples
Sub
mercial total
16
Argentina
Bermuda
Mexico
Uruguay
Full
Total
branches
2/
16
29,6
21
35,0
0,0
3,3
1,9
1,7
1,9
1,7
3,7
5,0
12
12
22,2
14
23,3
14,8
13,3
China
1,9
1,7
Japan
9,3
8,3
South Korea
3,7
3,3
30
30
55,6
31
51,7
Sweden
3,7
3,3
Switzerland
3,7
3,3
America
USA
Asia
3/
Europe
5,6
5,0
Euro area
23
23
42,6
24
40,0
France
14,8
13,3
Germany
7,4
6,7
Italy
1,9
1,7
Netherlands
13,0
13,3
Portugal
5,6
5,0
53
54 100,0
60
100,0
U. Kingdom
Total
September 2010
| 45
September 2010
| 46
September 2010
| 47
Annex
b) Adjusted Total Assets: comprises total assets after netting and reclassification of balance sheet items or
group of items. Netting involves repurchase agreements, interbank relations and relations within branches,
foreign exchange portfolio and debtors due to litigation. Reclassifications are within foreign exchange and
lease portfolios;
c)
Low-liquidity Assets: assets not related to the institutions main activities. For analysis purposes, the
following assets were considered: deferred tax assets, fiscal credits, debtors due to litigation, unusual
onlending, various unusual assets and permanent assets;
d) Financial Intermediation Assets: assets that provide income on financial operations, such as gold, foreign
currency cash, interbank operations, stocks and securities, derivatives assets, credit operations net of
provisions, foreign exchange portfolio, usual and unusual onlending;
e)
Onerous Liabilities Cost: expenses on financial operations to onerous liabilities ratio. Onerous liabilities
are those that generate expenses to the financial institution, such as: time deposits, repurchase agreements,
foreign exchange acceptances, mortgage-linked bonds, debentures, foreign bonds, BCB open market
and others;
f)
Delinquency: non-performing loans, comprised by credit operations with payments past due over ninety days;
g) Total Capital Ratio: International concept as defined by the Basle Committee, which recommends 8%
minimum required capital to risk-weighted assets ratio. In Brazil, minimum capital requirement (MRC) is
11%, according to National Monetary Council Resolution n. 3,490, of August 29, 2007, and Central Bank
of Brazil Communiqu n. 3,360, of September 12, 2007. A 11% MRC shall be observed for all financial
institutions; and other entities supervised by BCB, except credit unions not affiliated to central credit unions;
h) Coverage Index: provisions to non performing loans ratio;
i)
Fixed Asset to Regulatory Capital Ratio: according to Resolution n. 2,669, of November 25, 1999, ratio
shall not be higher than 50%;
j)
Total Liquidity (LT): disposable liquid assets kept by institutions in order to meet obligations;
September 2010
| 48
k) Estimated Liquidity Needs (NEL): represents the liquidity level that each institution needs to keep so as to
withstand funding volatility and losses under market stress;
l)
Segmentation by size: financial institution size is determined taking into account adjusted total assets,
calculated on a consolidated basis. Financial institutions whose share in total financial system assets exceed
15% are considered large. Remaining institutions are classified according to their share in the remaining
assets in a descending order, and classified as follows:
i. institutions that comprise together the 70th percentile of total remaining assets, in an accumulated basis,
are considered large;
ii. institutions between the 70th and the 95th percentile are considered medium;
iii. institutions between the 95th and the 99th percentile are considered small; and
iv. remaining institutions are considered micro;
m) Financial Operations Gross Earnings: gross income on financial operations to financial assets ratio;
n) Financial Operations Earnings: income on financial operations net of provisions to financial assets ratio;
o) Semiannual Return on Equity: semiannual net profit to average equity ratio in the semester;
p) Reclassification: rearrangement in balance sheet items or groups of items for analysis purposes.
September 2010
| 49
risk (PJUR1), for each generated yield curve, new regulatory parameters on capital requirements are calculated.
For capital requirements related to other types of interest rates risks, the multiplying factors Mext published
by BCB on January 4, 2010 were used.
Currency risk is calculated by applying stressed exchange rates over the effective exposure1. The new capital
requirement for currency risk (PCAM) is calculated by applying stressed exchange rates over regulatory exposure.
It is assumed that all foreign exchange-linked positions follow the percentage changes estimated for the US
dollar stress scenario.
Ad hoc scenario, used for credit risk increase, consists in estimating, for each financial institution, a two-level
downgrade on its portfolio credit rating. Provisions need is estimated through the difference between new
required provisions and current provisions. Then, the impact of the provision need on RC and MRC and, thus,
on Total Capital Ratio is provided. The possible constitution of deferred tax assets owing to the non-deductibility
of provision expenses is considered in the calculation.
A macroeconomic scenario is obtained through a vector autoregressive model (VAR), which considers Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate, domestic interest rate (CDI) and US interest rate. For the stress scenarios,
there were considered a one-sided test with a 5% significance level.
VAR model results are applied to two dynamic panel models. The first one estimates balance of credit with
payments past due over 90 days; the other estimates financial systems credit portfolio. Then, the same ad hoc
methodology is used, i.e., one estimates the increase in provisions to compensate higher delinquency, the RC
and MRC adjustments, including those due to credit portfolio growth, followed by the recalculation of TCR,
considering the constitution of deferred tax assets.
September 2010
| 50
Appendix
September 2010
| 51
Board
Henrique de Campos Meirelles
Governor
Aldo Luiz Mendes
Deputy Governor
Alexandre Antonio Tombini
Deputy Governor
Alvir Alberto Hoffmann
Deputy Governor
Anthero de Moraes Meirelles
Deputy Governor
Antonio Gustavo Matos do Vale
Deputy Governor
Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Arajo
Deputy Governor
Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva
Deputy Governor
September 2010
| 52
Abridgment
ABS
ATA
BCB
BCE
BIS
BM&FBovespa
BNDES
b.p.
CDS
CEBS
Cetip
CMN
CNI
Compe
Copom
DPGE
DPMFi
Embi+
Embi+ Brazil
FDIC
Fed
FGC
FPR
FSB
FSOC
GDP
GNP
IB
IBC-Br
Ibovespa
IED
IGP-DI
IMF
INR
IPA-DI
IPCA
LF
LT
September 2010
| 53
MSCI EM
MRC
MRC_Cr
MRC_Op
NEL
Nuci
p.a.
p.p.
PR
PRE
REF
RFL
RSFN
SCC
Selic
SFN
Siloc
Sitraf
SPB
STR
TCR
TED
USA
VaR
VIX
September 2010
| 54