Volume 7, Issue 01

07Jan2013

The monthly newsletter from FundsIndia

Hope is a beautiful thing

Srikanth Meenakshi

Inside this issue:

Hope is a beaut iful
thin g S ri kant h
Mee naks hi

201 4 5 Ne w
Years res ol uti on s
for mut ual fu nd
inve st ors
- Vidya B ala

Equ ity Reco mme ndations

- B. Kr is hna Ku ma r

An yea r t o forget ,
and one t o l ook
forwa rd t o?
Dh i r e n d r a K u m a r

Greetings from FundsIndia! Trust you all had a wonderful new year!
Scarcely does a year arrive as laden with expectations as the year 2014 has. Rarely has an election
seemed as important as the one that is on tap in a few months from now.
People are counting on a new government to deliver the country out of the economic morass that it
finds itself in. Be it taming inflation, stabilizing the value of rupee, increasing GDP growth rate, or easing the business climate for a robust growth in industry - people are hoping for strong performance
from whoever it is that would form the next government whether it is UPA III or NDA II or AAP I.
Needless to say, at FundsIndia, we share these hopes. A poor, inflationary economy is especially bad for
an investment services business such as FundsIndia. We get hit on both sides our customers portfolios do not do well, and inflation eats away at peoples savings. That means people have less to invest
even while whatever they had invested in the past is not doing well which further diminishes interest in
investing. While no new government will be able to wave a magic wand to make all problems disappear,
it might help improve the economic outlook and investor sentiment in the country. Wed be happy to
take that.
Coming to our platform and services, the first few months of year might prove to be eventful for us.
Recently, we launched a handful of new deposit products in our platform (Gruh Finance, PNB Housing,

Apollo Hospitals, Exim bank, and more). We plan to be launching an exciting new way of doing systematic investing in physical gold as
well shortly. There are more new products and services on the anvil, and well keep you updated as and when we bring them online.
Im also happy to announce that we opened our first physical outlet on a pilot basis near Chennai. It is at Mahindra World City a planned
township that houses many corporates including Infosys and BMW. It is located at The Canopy, a central shopping complex in the campus. If you or your friends live or work in the township, please drop in to say hello.
Tax saving season is here. Hope you have completed your ELSS investments for the year. If you need any recommendation on where to
invest, you know you just have to ask for it.
In this newsletter, we carry '5 New Year's Resolutions for mutual fund investors' by Vidya Bala and a look ahead by Dhirendra Kumar. I highly
recommend both.
Happy Investing!

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme related documents carefully before investing.

Volume 7, Issue 01

Page 2

2014 5 New Years resolutions for mutual fund investors

Vidya Bala
Tell me; of the many new-year resolutions that most of us have in mind, shedding those extra kilos would surely be one of them? At least for a good number
of us? I know, thats easier said than done.
But if you can shed some baggage without any physical effort by simply reinforcing some beliefs, doesnt that sound cool to you? But I am not talking of
those extra pounds; I am talking of the excess baggage that most investors
tend to carry with regard to their investments.
Try shedding some of this baggage, without much effort, and you will have a
super-fit investment portfolio!

So here are 5 resolutions that I can think of, for any mutual fund investor:
1. Spend less time timing the market and more time staying in the market
Simply put, stay invested over your intended time frame. This is true of equity and debt funds.
Most of you may be investing in mutual funds because of the convenience of investing in equity and debt markets without having to track
your investments or time the markets right or pick the right stocks; and yet manage inflation-beating returns.
If that be the objective, then there could be little need to try and time the market by waiting for a dip (or a bigger dip) to invest, or worse
still, continuously starting and stopping SIPs based on market movements. You may do more harm to your portfolio than good, often
times.
For instance, assume you had an SIP running from January 2013 and the market volatility panicked you into stopping your SIPs by June
and you just held the money invested thus far.
In a mid-cap fund like HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities you would have got an IRR of 17% but had you continued the SIPs till the end of the
year, your SIP returns would have been a good 30%. Even in a large-cap fund such as ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip your returns would have
been 19% if you ran your SIPs than the 14% IRR had you stopped it mid-year and held on.
If you are a very long-term investor (10 year or more) then no harm in investing a lump sum and hoping you can build your wealth. But if
you wish to time the market every time, you need to have deep pockets and acumen to spot market movements. For those with limited
sums, SIPs remain the best bet.
2.

Dont chase returns, chase consistency instead

I know the toppers chart for the year can really tempt you into switching your existing holdings to the chart toppers of the year. But remember, the toppers seldom find a place in the next years chart busters. Do read our article on choosing funds based on 1-year performance: Should you invest based on 1-year performance?
By unnecessarily switching funds, you may not only make your portfolio volatile and incur loads/taxes but lose out on the SIP and compounding benefits in the existing steady funds that you may hold.
3.

Dont obsess over marginal rating changes

If you have been following one of the few mutual fund ratings available for domestic funds, you might at
least every quarter be faced with a dilemma on whether you should be exiting some of your funds that
moved from a say 5-rating to 4 or from a 4-rating to 3.
Yes, ratings are a good tool for you to keep track of the performance of funds but remember no fund can
have relentless top notch performance. Only several quarters of sustained under performance should give
you the warning signal.

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme related documents carefully before investing.

Volume 7, Issue 01

Page 3

There will be slip ups that may result in some of the rating agencies lowering the ratings. While you may have to keep watch of the performance of such funds, do not let all the noise, especially a media update on top quarterly performers, tempt you into disturbing your portfolio.
You can though, check with your advisor on whether you need to be worried about the performance of any specific fund as a result of the
rating change.
Also different rating firms have different criteria to provide/change ratings. Follow one of them and not be confused by the difference
across the rating houses.
4.

Invest with a goal/ time frame

Most often, your investment decisions seem wrong at a later date because you did not have a goal/time frame for your investment. How
does this affect your portfolio?
If you did not have any time frame and started investing in say an equity fund and see the fund returns fall in 1 year, you believe you were
given a wrong fund or believe that mutual funds result in losing capital.
But if your investment purpose was for 5 years and you have been advised to keep the investment going for that period to generate wealth,
then the 1-year dip should not bother you as long-term performance tends to even out any short-term falls.
Lack of a clear idea on when you need your money back forces you into changing your investment decisions every time you see a market
movement.
This is true of debt funds as well. If you bought an income fund this year and saw the performance dip after July, the first question in your
mind would be whether to exit it. But income funds are meant to be held for at least a 3-year period and it was only the interest rate hike
that caused funds across this category to fall. Your time frame cannot change just because the market goes through a few kinks.
If you do invest without a goal or time frame, know what is the minimum time frame over which a particular fund/category is required to
be held for it to deliver optimal returns and hold on to that time frame. Chances are that you will end with decent returns (sector funds are
certainly exceptions to this rule).
5.

Review schemes and asset allocation

While we keep talking of not disturbing your portfolio, there would certainly be times when you need to review or rebalance your portfolio.
And what better time than a year end to examine your portfolio health?
Short-term blips both in equity and debt market are not reasons for you to be worried. But if a fund has steadily under performed its
benchmark by a t least 5 percentage points over 4-8 quarters, then the first thing would be for you to check with your advisor whether you
need to stop your SIP on the fund.
Review of your asset allocation is also an important project. In sharp bull markets your equity portfolio may have become inflated; conversely in a down market, your equity allocation may be much lower than your original equity allocation, as a result of any sharp fall.
Rebalancing will not just help you bring back your asset allocation; it directly helps you to buy more of an asset class that has fallen and is
therefore cheap; and also book profits in asset classes that have become expensive.
If the above is too much time for you to follow, take a look at our Smart Solutions, an automated advisory service that will remind and help
you to do both at the click of a button!
Just try following these rules with some discipline and you will see your portfolio bloom.
If you actually read through this long article patiently, thanks. I hope I can spare you of such long articles in future; for my resolution for
2014 is to convey as much, in as little words as possible. Have a fabulous year ahead!
Vidya Bala is the Head of Mutual Fund Research at FundsIndia. She writes for our monthly newsletter on topics including mutual fund,
personal finance and equity markets. Vidya Bala can be reached at vidyabala@fundsindia.com

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme related documents carefully before investing.

Volume 7, Issue 01

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The Month Ahead - Equity Recommendations

B. Krishna Kumar
The month of December was quite an eventful one for the stock market. The Sensex and the Nifty hit new life-time highs in December; post
the announcement of the state elections. However, the year 2014 has begun on a relatively cautious note with a sharp cut on January 2.
On the economic front, the Reserve Bank of India offered some respite by deciding against hiking interest rates in its meeting in December.
The headline inflation refuses to budge and the index of industrial production does not enthuse confidence either.
The corporate earnings season gets underway officially with the dawn of January. The performance of the corporate sector would be a key
factor influencing market sentiment in January and February. From a technical perspective, we maintain the positive view for the stock
market.
We maintain our view that the Nifty could rally to the immediate target of 6,650-6,700 from a medium-term perspective. The medium
term positive view would be under threat only if the Nifty falls below the support at 5,970.

We suggest investors follow a SIP-like approach to

investment in fundamentally sound large cap
stocks. Investors may use any weakness to accumulate high quality stocks from the banking, infrastructure and IT sectors.
This month, we discuss the outlook for a couple of
stocks from the small/mid cap sector. We are positive on Kesoram Industries and GATI. We believe
that both these stocks could deliver 15-20% returns
from a short-term perspective. Investors may accumulate these shares on weakness and as always,
respect the stop loss.

After a prolonged period of downtrend, Kesoram Industries seems to be getting ready for a short-term rally. A look at the weekly chart of
the stock featured below indicates that the stock has formed a consolidation and has since broken out above Rs.70 resistance.

We expect the stock to rally to Rs.105-110. Investors may have a stop

loss in Kesoram Industries at Rs.69. A fall below Rs.69 would indicate that the stock is headed to a deeper downward correction. Investors may therefore exit reduce their holdings if Kesoram falls
below Rs.69.
As far as GATI is concerned, the stock has been one of the top performers in the past few weeks. We expect the stock to move to the
immediate resistance at Rs.79. A look at the weekly chart featured
below suggests that the stock has managed to gain momentum in the
past few weeks.

Continued on page 5 . . .

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme related documents carefully before investing.

Volume 7, Issue 01

Page 5

A breakout past the 50% retracement level at Rs.51

would confirm the short-term trend positive view and
strengthen the case for a rally to Rs.79. The positive
view would be under threat if the stock falls below
the support at Rs.41.

Mr. B. Krishna Kumar also hosts a weekly webinar that discusses the market outlook for the following week. You can follow him on Livestream to receive reminders for his webinars: http://
new.livestream.com/accounts/4749821

An year to forget, and one to look forward to?

By Dhirendra Kumar | Dec 31st, 2013
For investors, 2013 was a nothing year, interrupted with a few nasty shocks. What does 2014 portend?
After showing some promise at one stage, 2013 has finally turned out to be a disappointing year for savers and investors. It had some serious scares,
some rather half-hearted landmarks but eventually, it left us waiting, a little nervously, for what 2014 holds. There are times when one is just waiting
for something to happen. Weeks and months pass by and we're just marking time, often not knowing how long will something take.
In some ways, 2013 should have made equity investors happy. After all, the Sensex and the Nifty hit new highs after five years. In the decade past, we've
been conditioned to greet new highs of the benchmarks with great joy. However, there was none of that this time. The new high point came too long
after the previous one, and proved to have no sustaining power.
Universal Gloom
What mattered to savers and investors was the universal gloom. Whether you were invested in equity or fixed income, or even gold or real estate, nothing gave any real returns. At a time when even the official rate of consumer inflation is running well above 10 per cent (and the real rate much higher),
nothing made money. Looking at things broadly, the average return of all equity funds is 4.75 per cent and the return of an index like the BSE 500 is 3.2
per cent.
Looking at different categories of funds, good returns are few and far between. The handful of technology funds have done extremely well, more than
compensating for a couple of bad years they've had. The category's average returns for the year are 52 per cent, with even the rearmost fund giving
returns of 40 per cent. The turnaround in investors' perception of technology companies' fortunes has obviously worked wonders. Somewhat similar is
the case of the pharma sector, where the handful of funds generated 20-plus percent returns. The only other type of category of fund in Value Research's database that has double digit returns are international funds, but more on that later.
Fixed Income Comes Unhinged
While equity investors can still take a long term view and think that eventually they'll make much more, fixed income investments do not have that
excuse. Fixed income investments must always give a decent return. Moreover, this return must be 'real', that is, it must be more than the rate of inflation. However, 2013 saw an all round failure from fixed-income investments. Firstly, all instruments delivered less than the inflation rate. Secondly, in
July, when the US Fed first announced its tapering, fixed income funds had a crisis. Bond prices fell dramatically and very briefly, all funds--even liquid
Disclaimer: Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme related documents carefully before investing.

Volume 7, Issue 01

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funds--registered a drop in the NAV. This was an unexpected shock for investors who've always thought these funds to be proof against even a single
day of losses.
Gold Decline
Gold ended with its worst year since 1981. The international price of gold is down 28.28 per cent since 2013 began. This is it's worst year since 1981. Is
the gold mania over? It certainly looks like it, although in India the plunging rupee and the government's increased duties meant that the loss was not
all that severe. The domestic price of gold was down 7.8 per cent in the same period.
However, with the rupee stabilising and the government determined not to reduce duties, Indian gold prices are now tracking international ones. In
fact, if curbs are lifted and duties reduced, Indian prices could fall more than international ones. Since its peak in September 2011, gold is down 35 per
cent internationally. Value Research has long maintained that gold had a one-time boom during the last decade. Fundamentally, gold is a poor investment and will remain so.
Global Delights
Given India's external sector weakness, along with our high inflation and interest rates relative to the US Dollar, it is likely that the rupee will continue
to get weaker. This might sometimes happen in fits and starts and sometimes steadily, but the basic trend will remain true. What this means is that all
sensible investors must have some exposure to international funds. In this regard, investors would do well to look beyond the category average of 13 per
cent returns that the Value Research International funds category has.
Much of this category is made up of exotic thematic funds which are not suitable for anyone. Investors should focus on mainstream diversified equity
funds that focus on the US and other developed economies. Such international funds have returns of well above 30 per cent over the last year. Examples include FT India Franklin US Opportunities, Motilal Oswal MOSt NASDAQ-100 ETF, ICICI Pru US Bluechip Equity, DSPBR US Flexible Equity,
and Birla Sun Life International Equity.
Looking Ahead to 2014
Most investors expect the 2014 general elections to be a big agent of change and since investors are by nature an optimistic lot, we expect the change to
be positive. At this point of time, this expectation generally takes the shape of an NDA government led by Narendra Modi. Of all the possible political
configurations in India, a Modi-led NDA government would be most growth-oriented. However, it's by no means certain that such a government would
actually be formed.
India's polity has always been a fertile ground for socialist-leftist ideas that prioritise big expensive promises and spending over growth that could finance that spending. The ease with which the AAP has gained ground is fresh proof of this. It's entirely possible that May 2014 could see a dysfunctional coalition coming to power that could make the UPA look like a model of action and good governance.
However, that's not to say that mutual fund investors should follow some special strategy based on what they think will happen on the markets. Markets are uncertain even at the best of times and we always recommend an approach that can be followed without regard to the events that could happen.
Here's our investing strategy for 2014, which is the same as it has always been: Take a look at your own life and try and make a liberal estimate of how
much of your savings you would need to tap into over the next five to seven years. This would include some sort of an emergency amount, plus predictable big-ticket expenses like weddings, education, the down payment on a house and such things. This is the amount you should hold in debt investments which could be anything from PPF to short-term debt mutual funds. The rest should be in diversified equity mutual funds with a good long-term
track record. Any fresh investments into equity funds should be done gradually and continuously regardless of the state of the markets. Don't invest in
too many funds--four or five is enough diversification.
Much could possibly change during 2014. On the other hand it's possible that nothing could change. It could change for the better, or for worse. However, there's would be no need to change this investment strategy. And that's the way it should be.

Syndicated from Value Research Online. Read the article online here: http://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyview.asp?

str=24280

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Disclaimer: Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme related documents carefully before investing.