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PLAN DE EXPANSIN 2011-2025

PROYECCIONES DE DEMANDA
ANEXO I- 3
CUADROS SOPORTE Y DETALLE DE CLCULOS
TITULO

No.
1

INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO A LOS TRABAJOS DE AMPLICACION DEL


CANAL

INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO AL TURISMO RESIDENCIAL

EDIFICIOS EN CONSTRUCCIN

ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA: IMPACTO POBLACIONAL POR AMPLIACION DEL CANAL +


TURISMO RESIDENCIAL

INFLACIN, 1970-2006

PRONSTICO DEL PIB 2009, TENDENCIAL HISTRICO- (Millones de B/. 1996)

PIB ESTIMADO AL 2010, SEGN ESCENARIO, DIVISION Y ACTIVIDAD ECONOMICA


(Millones de B/. 1996)

ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES DEL PRODUCTO INTERNO


BRUTO AOS 2010-2024

9
EMPALME DE BASES 1996

=> 1982

PIB 2010-2024

10

ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO


DE LA ACTIVIDAD DE MANUFACTURA AOS 2010-2024

11

ESCENARIO BASE

MODERADO

ESCENARIO ALTO

OPTIMISTA

12

13
ESCENARIO BAJO

PESIMISTA

14

RESUMEN DE TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB, SEGN ESCENARIOS

15

ANLISIS DEL FACTOR DE CARGA Y PROYECCIN LINEAL

16

PREMISAS DE PROYECCIN DE PRDIDAS DE ENERGA

17

PRECIOS EE - HISTORICOS

18

EVOLUCIN DE PRECIOS DE LA ELECTRICIDAD

19

PROYECCION REAL DEL PRETOT

20

DEMANDA DE LA PROVINCIA DE BOCAS DEL TORO (CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN)


Aos 2009 -2024

21

DEMANDA CONSOLIDADA DEL SEGMENTO BLOQUE (CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN)

22

RESUMEN DE PRONOSTICOS DE DEMANDA

23

PARTICIPACION POR SECTOR - ESCENARIO MEDIO

24

PARTICIPACION POR SECTOR - ESCENARIO ALTO

25

PARTICIPACION POR SECTOR - ESCENARIO BAJO

26

DEMANDA MAXIMA DE GENERACION , POR PARTICIPANTE CONSUMIDOR Y POR


BARRA. 2010-2024 (MW)

CUADRO No. 1
INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO A LOS TRABAJOS DE AMPLICACION DEL CANAL
CASO: ESCENARIO MODERADO
SUPUESTO: 3 INMIGRANTE INDIRECTO POR EMPLEADO EXTRANJERO
EMPLEADOS ADICIONALES X AMPLIACION
TOTAL
NACIONALES
EXTRANJEROS INDIRECTOS
3.00
2007
746
746
2008
2,237
2,115
122
366
2009
4,405
4,257
148
444
2010
5,630
5,338
292
876
2011
2,929
2,674
255
765
2012
1,559
1,371
188
564
2013
1,324
1,116
208
624
2014
667
429
238
714
2008 - 2009
3,321
3,186
135
405
2010 - 2014
2,422
2,186
236
709

2 Familiares y 1 de otra
actividad conexa

CASO ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA


SUPUESTO: 5 INMIGRANTES INDIRECTOS POR EMPLEADO EXTRANJERO
EMPLEADOS ADICIONALES X AMPLIACION
TOTAL
NACIONALES
EXTRANJEROS INDIRECTOS
5.00
2007
746
746
2008
2,237
2,115
122
610
2009
4,405
4,257
148
740
2010
5,630
5,338
292
1,460
2011
2,929
2,674
255
1,275
2012
1,559
1,371
188
940
2013
1,324
1,116
208
1,040
2014
667
429
238
1,190
2008 - 2009
3,321
3,186
135
675
2010 - 2014
2,422
2,186
236
1,181

2 Familiares y 3 de otra
actividad conexa

256838157.xls.ms_office
1-Inmigracin x Ampliacin

INMIGRANTES
TOTALES
488
592
1,168
1,020
752
832
952
540
945

INMIGRANTES
TOTALES
732
888
1,752
1,530
1,128
1,248
1,428
810
1,417

1/9/2015

CUADRO No. 2
INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO AL TURISMO RESIDENCIAL
CASO DE IMPACTO MODERADO
SUPUESTO: OCUPACIN DE EDIFICIOS POR EXTRANJEROS AUMENTADO

TOTAL
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

Ocupacin

23,947
35,921
47,895
59,869
71,842
83,816
95,790
107,764
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737

Dueo

20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

Acompaantes
1.00

7,982
11,974
15,965
19,956
23,947
27,939
31,930
35,921
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912

7,982
11,974
15,965
19,956
23,947
27,939
31,930
35,921
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912

10.00%
INMIGRANTES
TOTALES

15,965
23,947
31,930
39,912
47,895
55,877
63,860
71,842
79,825
79,825
79,825
79,825
79,825

CASO DE IMPACTO OPTIMISTA


SUPUESTO: OCUPACIN DE EDIFICIOS POR EXTRANJEROS AUMENTADO

TOTAL
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

256838157.xls.ms_office
2y3-InmigrTurismo Residenci

55,877
125,724
195,571
265,418
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387

Ocupacin

20%
45%
70%
95%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

Dueo

Acompaantes
3.00

7,982
17,961
27,939
37,917
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912

23,947
53,882
83,816
113,751
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737

25.00%
INMIGRANTES
TOTALES

31,930
71,842
111,755
151,667
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650

1/9/2015

CUADRO No. 3
EDIFICIOS EN CONSTRUCCIN
GRUPO

1
2

3
4
5
6
7 - 10
11 - 25
26 -176
Chiriqu
1
2
3
4
5
Cocl
Bocas del
Toro

EDIFICIO

# PISOS

Olloqui de Espaa

El Palacio de la
BahaThe Trump Organization, y el Trump Ocean Club
Grupo K de Panam
International Hotel
And Tower
Ice Tower
Grupo Mall
Los Faros de Panam1
Los Faros de Panam2
Los Faros de Panam3
4
ms segn Informe del MEF
15
edificios en preventa a dic/2006
150
edificios de menor envergadura
Sin informacin cuantitativa, estimado asumiendo
Boquete
1000
residencias
Potrerillos
por lugar
Las Lajas
Volcn
Cerro Punta
1000
A febrero/2006 se conoce de 500 a 700 casas en
construccin

#
APARTAMENTOS
RESIDENCIALES
97

333

65

223

Apartamentos
por Piso

3.43

104
84
70
70
82
50
30

1,716

7.66
5.55

1,819
4,160
24,961
5,000

1,000
700

39,912

RESIDENCIAS TOTALES

metros altura
Altura media
Ms alto

256838157.xls.ms_office
2y3-InmigrTurismo Residenci

290
346

1/9/2015

CUADRO No. 4
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA: IMPACTO POBLACIONAL POR AMPLIACION DEL CANAL + TURISMO RESIDENCIAL
POBRUR

POBRUX

POBRUY

POBTOT

POBURB

POBURX

POBURY

Poblacin rural

Poblacin rural masculinaPoblacin rural femenina

Poblacin total

Poblacin urbana

Poblacin urbana masculina


Poblacin urbana femenina

Miles de habitantes

Miles de habitantes

Miles de habitantes

Miles de habitantes

Miles de habitantes

Frmula

CELADE 1950-1999 & CGR


CELADE
2000 1950-1999 & CGR 2000

Frmula

Frmula

CELADE 1950-1999 & CGR


CELADE
20001950-1999 & CGR 2000

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
R^2

Miles de habitantes

Miles de habitantes

789.5

419.8

369.7

1506.3

716.8

349.1

367.7

807.6

429.5

378.1

1547.3

739.7

360.0

379.6

826.2

439.4

386.8

1589.5

763.3

371.3

391.9

845.2

449.6

395.6

1632.8

787.6

383.0

404.6

864.7

460.0

404.7

1677.4

812.7

395.0

417.7

884.6

470.6

414.0

1723.2

838.6

407.4

431.2

902.9

480.3

422.5

1766.2

863.3

419.2

444.2

921.5

490.3

431.2

1810.3

888.8

431.3

457.5

940.6

500.5

440.1

1855.6

915.0

443.8

471.2

960.1

510.8

449.2

1902.0

942.0

456.7

485.3

979.9

521.4

458.5

1949.7

969.8

469.9

499.9

992.8

528.2

464.6

1991.1

998.4

483.9

514.5

1005.8

535.0

470.8

2033.6

1027.8

498.3

529.5

1019.0

541.9

477.1

2077.1

1058.1

513.1

545.0

1032.4

548.9

483.5

2121.7

1089.3

528.4

560.9

1046.0

556.0

490.0

2167.4

1121.4

544.1

577.3

1058.3

562.4

495.9

2211.3

1153.0

559.5

593.5

1070.7

568.9

501.8

2256.2

1185.5

575.4

610.2

1083.3

575.4

507.8

2302.2

1219.0

591.7

627.3

1096.0

582.1

513.9

2349.3

1253.3

608.5

644.9

1108.9

588.8

520.1

2397.5

1288.7

625.7

663.0

1119.9

594.5

525.4

2442.2

1322.3

642.2

680.1

1131.1

600.3

530.8

2487.9

1356.8

659.0

697.8

1142.4

606.1

536.3

2534.5

1392.2

676.3

715.9

1153.8

611.9

541.8

2582.2

1428.5

694.1

734.4

1165.3

617.9

547.4

2631.0

1465.8

712.3

753.5

1154.8

611.7

543.1

2687.8

1533.0

746.5

786.4

1144.4

605.6

538.7

2747.7

1603.3

782.4

820.9

1134.1

599.6

534.5

2810.9

1676.8

820.1

856.8

1123.9

593.7

530.2

2877.7

1753.8

859.5

894.3

1113.8

587.8

526.0

2948.0

1834.2

900.8

933.4

1126.4

593.6

532.8

3004.0

1877.6

923.0

954.6

1139.2

599.6

539.6

3060.1

1920.9

945.1

975.8

1152.0

605.5

546.5

3116.3

1964.2

967.3

996.9

1164.8

611.4

553.4

3172.4

2007.6

989.5

1018.1

1177.2

617.0

560.2

3228.2

2051.0

1011.7

1039.3

1189.8

622.7

567.1

3281.5

2091.7

1032.4

1059.3

36%

1.07%

1.65%

64%

1.98%

0.921

0.907

0.994

0.993

0.934

0.995

Pronstico de Poblacin Rural y Urbana, con base en la correlacin de dichas poblaciones, respecto a la evolucin de poblacin total
RURAL

NACIONALES AMPLIACION
F:
CELADE&Contr
alora

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

1,249
1,260
1,278
1,297
1,316
1,335
1,347
1,359
1,369
1,379
1,390
1,401
1,411
1,421
1,431
31.93
34%
Tasa anual acumulativa
2007-2010
1.27%
2011-2015
1.00%
2016-2021
0.74%
2007-2021
0.98%

256838157.xls.ms_office
4-Poblacin-Optimista

1,249
1,260
1,272
1,282
1,293
1,304
1,315
1,327
1,337
1,347
1,358
1,369
1,380
1,389
1,399

0.89%
0.83%
0.75%
0.81%

TURIS.RESID

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

TOTAL

URBANO

20%

6.4
14.4
22.4
30.3
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9

Nacionales

AMPLIACION TURIS.RESID

F:
CELADE&Contr
alora

100%
Remanente
20%

3,336
3,392
3,480
3,572
3,664
3,757
3,819
3,874
3,922
3,973
4,024
4,075
4,128
4,175
4,222.3
159.94

2,087
2,131
2,201
2,275
2,348
2,422
2,471
2,515
2,553
2,593
2,634
2,675
2,716
2,754
2,791
128.01
66%

2,087
2,131
2,175
2,216
2,257
2,300
2,342
2,386
2,425
2,465
2,506
2,547
2,588
2,626
2,663

2.31%
1.72%
1.23%
1.70%

2.92%
2.11%
1.48%
2.10%

2.02%
1.81%
1.56%
1.76%

0.73
0.89
1.75
1.53
1.13
1.25
1.43
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29

80%

25.5
57.5
89.4
121.3
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7

TASAS
OTIMISTAS
1.65%
1.67%
2.60%
2.65%
2.58%
2.53%
1.65%
1.44%
1.25%
1.28%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.14%
1.14%

1/9/2015

PROYECCION DE POBLACION TOTAL POR AO CALENDARIO,

VARIACION DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION TOTAL


POR AO CALENDARIO,

SEGN CUATRO HIPOTESIS DE CRECIMIENTO

SEGN CUATRO HIPOTESIS DE CRECIMIENTO

PERIODO 2010 2010- 20

PERIODO 2010 2010- 20

HIPOTESIS
CONSTANTE

AO

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TASA

Nota.

HIPOTESIS ALTA

HIPOTESIS MEDIA
RECOMENDADA

HIPOTESIS BAJA

3,416,857
3,476,769
3,537,001
3,597,531
3,658,350
3,719,492
3,780,990
3,842,879
3,905,202
3,967,938
4,031,019
4,094,830
4,157,955
4,221,696
4,285,646
4,349,878
4,414,465
4,479,480

3,411,824
3,470,579
3,529,465
3,588,472
3,647,614
3,706,905
3,766,358
3,825,988
3,885,883
3,946,035
4,006,310
4,066,574
4,126,696
4,186,678
4,246,610
4,306,486
4,366,300
4,426,047

3,395,346
3,450,349
3,504,483
3,557,687
3,610,165
3,662,009
3,713,312
3,764,166
3,814,672
3,864,769
3,914,304
3,963,127
4,011,084
4,058,181
4,104,519
4,150,091
4,194,889
4,238,907

3,334,025
3,377,061
3,418,879
3,459,293
3,498,320
3,536,241
3,573,335
3,609,880
3,646,069
3,681,715
3,716,531
3,750,228
3,782,520
3,813,488
3,843,324
3,871,905
3,899,108
3,924,809

1.587%

1.521%

1.276%

0.924%

Extracto del proyeccion de Poblacion Total, Cuadro No. 19


ESTIMACIONES Y PROYECCIONES DE LA POBLACION TOTAL,
DEL PAIS, POR SEXO Y EDAD, AOS 1950 - 2050
INEC, BOLETIN No. 7

TASA(2010-2014)
TASA(2015-2020)
TASA(2021-2025)

1.682%
1.589%
1.493%

1.637%
1.525%
1.400%

1.458%
1.279%
1.095%

1.111%
0.939%
0.722%

AO

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TASA

HIPOTESIS
CONSTANTE

HIPOTESIS
ALTA

HIPOTESIS
MEDIA
RECOMENDA
DA

1.753%
1.732%
1.711%
1.691%
1.671%
1.653%
1.637%
1.622%
1.606%
1.590%
1.583%
1.542%
1.533%
1.515%
1.499%
1.485%
1.473%

1.722%
2.293%
1.672%
1.648%
1.625%
1.604%
1.583%
1.565%
1.548%
1.527%
1.504%
1.478%
1.454%
1.431%
1.410%
1.389%
1.368%

1.620%
1.569%
1.518%
1.475%
1.436%
1.401%
1.370%
1.342%
1.313%
1.282%
1.247%
1.210%
1.174%
1.142%
1.110%
1.079%
1.049%

-1.077%

-3.383%

-2.646%

HIPOTESIS
BAJA

1.291%
-0.912%
1.182%
1.128%
1.084%
1.049%
1.023%
1.002%
0.978%
0.946%
0.907%
0.861%
0.819%
0.782%
0.744%
0.703%
0.659%
#NUM!

CUADRO No. 5
INFLACIN, 1970-2006
IPCPAN

AOS

1987 = 100
Frmula

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 (P)

1990-2007
1990-2000
1997-2009
2002-2009
2005-2009
ARCHIVO: 256838157.xls.ms_office
HOJA: 5-Inflacin

INFPAN

IPC anual de Panam (1987 =


Inflacin de Panam
100)

42.2
43.0
45.4
48.5
56.9
60.0
62.4
65.4
68.3
73.8
84.3
90.6
94.5
96.6
98.2
99.1
99.1
100.0
100.5
100.6
101.4
102.7
104.5
105.0
106.4
107.4
108.8
110.1
110.8
112.4
114.1
114.4
115.8
117.7
119.4
122.8
125.8
134.0
145.7
149.3
154.3

%
COPE 1971-2002

2.0
5.6
6.9
17.3
5.5
4.0
4.8
4.4
8.0
14.2
7.5
4.3
2.2
1.7
0.9
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.8
1.3
1.8
0.5
1.3
0.9
1.3
1.2
0.6
1.4
1.5
0.3
1.2
1.6
1.4
2.9
2.5
6.5
8.7
2.5
3.4

2.1%
1.2%
2.6%
3.7%
4.6%

4.6

1/9/2015

PRONOSTICO DEL PIB TENDENCIAL HISTORICO


(Millones de balboas de 1996)

CUADRO No.

PRONSTICO DEL PIB 2008, TENDENCIAL HISTRICO- (Millones de B/. 1996)


ESTIMACIONES 2010
GRAN DIVISIN ECONMICA

2001

2002

2003

BASE HISTRICA
2004

2005

2006

Revision
2007

Preliminar
2008

2009

E1

E2

E3

2009

PROMEDIO
DE
CAMBIO DE ltimos 3
aos2006-08

PROMEDIO DE
CAMBIO DE ltimos 2
aos2007-08

TENDENCIAL 20012009

1. Agricultura, silvicultura y caza


2. Pesca
3. Explotacin de canteras
Subtotal Sector Primario
4. Industria Manufacturera
5. Electricidad, gas y agua
6. Construccin
7. Transporte, almacenamiento y comunicaciones
Subtotal Sector Secundario y de Infraestructura
8. Comercio al por mayor y al por menor
9. Hoteles y Restaurantes
10. Intermediacin Financiera
11. Actividades Inmobiliarias, empresariales y de alquiler
12. Enseanza Privada
Menos: Servicio de intermediacin financiera
Subtotal Sector Terciario (comercial y financiero)
13. Actividades de servicio sociales y de salud privada
14. Otras actividades comunitarias, sociales y personales
15. Productores de servicios gubernamentales
Construccin
Actividades Inmobiliarias, empresariales y de alquiler
Hogares privados con servicio domstico
16. Productores de servicios domsticos
Subtotal Sector Terciario (oficial y personal)
Ms: Derechos de importancia e ITBM
Ms: ITBM que graba las compras de los hogares
Ms: Otros impuestos a los productores
Menos: Subvenciones a los productos
Subtotal Impuestos y transferencias
Producto Interno Bruto Real

588.3
261.0
75.6
924.9
1,026.3
357.0
394.1
1,767.5
3544.9
1,703.5
259.2
1,090.4
690.5
82.4
-369.0
3457
111.9
368.9
1,128.9
25.8
1,103.9
84.3
1,214.0
2823.7
208.9
139.7
397.1
-60.0
685.7
11,436.2

TASA DE CRECIMIENTO ANUAL


FUENTE:

565.2
312.3
89.3
966.8
999.4
381.5
365.4
1,803.2
3549.5
1,668.1
277.4
1,011.9
717.5
84.8
-288.2
3471.5
118.7
388.4
1,171.3
24.6
1,150.0
93.1
1,267.7
2946.1
211.5
136.7
460.8
-51.8
757.2
11,691.1

581.1
377.8
120.9
1079.8
965.4
387.0
491.0
1,999.0
3,842.4
1,686.8
306.2
939.4
753.9
88.7
-300.2
3474.8
122.9
394.8
1,188.0
25.7
1,201.7
95.1
1,322.5
3028.2
198.2
139.2
465.6
-45.4
757.6
12,182.8

592.9
379.0
136.0
1107.9
985.5
410.6
561.6
2,296.3
4254.0
1,881.9
347.6
887.0
834.9
92.8
-262.5
3781.7
129.5
410.3
1,217.0
27.0
1,268.2
102.7
1,397.9
3154.7
207.9
170.7
500.0
-77.7
800.9
13,099.2

621.6
375.4
136.1
1133.1
1,026.9
433.4
566.8
2,567.9
4595.0
2,047.4
386.1
1,032.4
899.0
96.9
-289.0
4172.8
134.3
426.8
1,208.3
27.8
1,358.4
104.5
1,490.7
3260.1
228.7
191.8
539.5
-79.8
880.2
14,041.2

670.6
368.5
159.5
1198.6
1,066.7
447.6
671.2
2,920.9
5106.4
2,274.0
433.2
1,187.1
947.4
105.9
-374.3
4573.3
137.8
448.4
1231.8
32.8
1453.9
111.3
1598.0
3416
285.3
254.5
562.0
-157.5
944.3
15,238.6

688.8
356.2
197.8
1242.8
1,126.7
484.3
819.3
3,417.5
5847.8
2,517.7
494.9
1,414.7
1,039.8
113.4
-379.8
5200.7
155.6
513.1
1272.7
37.9
1568.0
112.6
1718.5
3659.9
349.4
302.4
639.5
-158.1
1,133.2
17,084.4

719.5
412.2
259.0
1390.7
1,170.9
502.9
1,075.0
3,945.8
6694.6
2,695.2
535.9
1,614.6
1,076.7
121.8
-403.9
5640.3
163.9
548.3
1321.0
45.3
1718.9
114.7
1878.9
3912.1
365.0
330.3
650.0
-170.0
1,175.3
18,812.9

653.3
397.0
270.4
1320.7
1,165.7
540.8
1,124.7
4,206.3
7037.5
2,737.4
549.7
1,604.6
1,045.7
134.7
-430.4
5641.7
168.8
571.9
1353.3
45.6
1874.3
113.6
2033.5
4127.5
346.2
356.6
672.2
-124.0
1,251.0
19,378.3

699.0
412.6
258.2
1,369.8
1,157.7
527.1
1,062.2
4,079.0
6,825.9
2,752.7
558.9
1,539.1
1,101.7
127.9
-401.7
5,678.6
167.3
556.7
1,334.5
43.9
1,791.3
118.6
1,953.8
4,012.3
359.4
348.6
681.5
-163.8
1,225.7
19,112.4

2.23%

4.21%

7.52%

7.19%

8.53%

12.11%

10.12%

3.01%

-1.37%

-1.5%

2.0%

0.7%
2.1%
1.5%
1.0%
-3.0%
4.2%
3.4%
4.0%
2.6%

4.3%

647.6
407.0
322.4
1,377
1,200.7
576.0
1,335.9
4,750.0
7,863
2,912.0
595.1
1,774.2
1,080.7
145.9
-450.9
6,057
180.6
620.2
1,396.4
50.9
2,039.9
114.4
2205.2
4402.4
369.3
399.0
713.5
-114.5
1,367.3
21,066
8.71%

-0.9%
2.5%
19.2%
4.3%
3.0%
6.5%
18.8%
12.9%
11.7%
6.4%
8.3%
10.6%
3.3%
8.3%
4.8%
7.4%
7.0%
8.4%
3.2%
11.6%
8.8%
0.7%
8.4%
6.7%
1.2%
20.8%
9.8%
-32.6%
9.3%

636.2
419.1
316.2
1,372
1,185.7
571.5
1,317.8
4,666.6
7,741
2,854.3
579.3
1,708.9
1,048.7
146.8
-458.2
5,880
175.8
603.8
1,395.5
50.0
2,049.2
114.1
2213.3
4,388
344.6
387.2
689.2
-109.8
1,311.2
20,692
6.78%

Direccin de Estadisticas y Censo, Panam en Cifras 2002-06

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022 CCB

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 6-PIB 2010, tres metodologas

PRONOSTICO DEL PIB TENDENCIAL HISTORICO


(Millones de balboas de 1996)

010
E4

E5

AJUSTADO
estructuras base E2

AJUSTADO estructuras
base E2

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO
2007
2008
2009
Promedio

-2.6%
5.6%
16.9%
3.8%
1.7%
5.7%
17.2%
10.9%
10.0%
4.3%
5.4%
6.5%
0.3%
9.0%
6.5%
4.2%
4.2%
5.6%
3.1%
9.7%
9.3%
0.4%
8.8%
6.3%
-0.5%
8.6%
2.5%
-11.4%
4.8%

636.2
-2.6%
419.1
5.6%
316.2
16.9%
1,372
3.8%
1,191.1
2.2% 0.0046
571.5
5.7%
1,317.8
17.2%
4,483.2
6.6% -0.0393
7,563
7.5%
2,854.3
4.3%
579.3
5.4%
1,845.6
15.0%
1.08
1,048.7
0.3%
146.8
9.0%
-458.2
6.5%
6,017
6.6%
175.8
4.2%
597.7
4.5% 0.99
1,465.3
8.3% 1.05
50.0
9.7%
2,049.2
9.3%
114.1
0.4%
2,213.3
8.8%
4,452
7.9%
344.6
-0.5%
387.2
8.6%
689.2
2.5%
-109.8 -11.4%
1,311.2
4.8%
20,715.0
6.90%
4.90%
2.00%

625.2
411.8
310.7
1,348
1,170.4
561.6
1,294.9
4,405.3
7,432
2,804.8
569.3
1,813.6
1,030.5
144.3
450.2
5,912
172.8
587.4
1,439.8
49.1
2,013.6
112.1
2,174.9
4,375
338.6
380.5
677.2
-107.9
1,288.4
20,355.4

20,355.4

-3.9%
19.7%
18.1%
4.5%
-2.6%
6.9%
-7.3%
2.0%
0.1%
-2.1%
7.0%
-7.2%
3.9%
2.9%
-21.9%
0.4%
6.1%
5.3%
3.8%
-4.7%
4.2%
10.4%
4.4%
4.3%
1.2%
-2.1%
16.0%
-13.7%
10.4%
2.2%

2.8%
21.0%
35.4%
11.7%
-3.4%
1.4%
34.4%
10.9%
8.3%
1.1%
10.4%
-7.2%
5.1%
4.6%
4.2%
0.1%
3.5%
1.6%
1.4%
4.5%
4.5%
2.1%
4.3%
2.8%
-6.3%
1.8%
1.0%
-12.4%
0.1%
4.2%

2.0%
0.3%
12.5%
2.6%
2.1%
6.1%
14.4%
14.9%
10.7%
11.6%
13.5%
-5.6%
10.7%
4.6%
-12.6%
8.8%
5.4%
3.9%
2.4%
5.1%
5.5%
8.0%
5.7%
4.2%
4.9%
22.6%
7.4%
71.1%
5.7%
7.5%

4.8%
-0.9%
0.1%
2.3%
4.2%
5.6%
0.9%
11.8%
8.0%
8.8%
11.1%
16.4%
7.7%
4.4%
10.1%
10.3%
3.7%
4.0%
-0.7%
3.0%
7.1%
1.8%
6.6%
3.3%
10.0%
12.4%
7.9%
2.7%
9.9%
7.2%

7.9%
-1.8%
17.2%
5.8%
3.9%
3.3%
18.4%
13.7%
11.1%
11.1%
12.2%
15.0%
5.4%
9.3%
29.5%
9.6%
2.6%
5.1%
1.9%
18.0%
7.0%
6.5%
7.2%
4.8%
24.7%
32.7%
4.2%
97.4%
7.3%
8.5%

2.7%
-3.3%
22.7%
3.7%
5.6%
9.2%
20.5%
17.3%
14.5%
8.4%
14.0%
19.3%
7.2%
5.9%
1.4%
13.7%
12.9%
14.4%
3.3%
15.5%
7.8%
1.2%
7.5%
7.1%
22.5%
18.8%
13.8%
0.4%
20.0%
12.1%

4.5%
15.7%
30.9%
11.9%
3.9%
3.8%
31.2%
15.5%
14.5%
7.1%
8.3%
14.1%
3.5%
7.4%
6.3%
8.5%
5.3%
6.9%
3.8%
19.5%
9.6%
1.9%
9.3%
6.9%
4.5%
9.2%
1.6%
7.5%
3.7%
10.1%

-9.2%
-3.7%
4.4%
-5.0%
-0.4%
7.5%
4.6%
6.6%
5.1%
1.6%
2.6%
-0.6%
-2.9%
10.6%
6.6%
0.0%
3.0%
4.3%
2.4%
0.7%
9.0%
-1.0%
8.2%
5.5%
-5.2%
8.0%
3.4%
-27.1%
6.4%
3.0%

1.5%
6.2%
20.0%
5.2%
1.8%
6.1%
16.2%
13.2%
10.3%
7.0%
11.3%
5.7%
6.1%
7.3%
2.2%
7.2%
6.0%
6.5%
2.6%
8.5%
7.9%
4.4%
7.6%
5.6%
7.5%
14.3%
7.8%
10.9%
9.0%
7.8%

CAMBIO PROMEDIO
Promedio
Promedio
Promedio
ltimos 5
ltimos 4
ltimos 3
aos
aos
aos
2.0%
1.3%
-0.9%
0.9%
1.4%
2.5%
14.7%
18.7%
19.2%
3.6%
3.9%
3.3%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
5.7%
5.7%
6.5%
14.9%
18.7%
18.8%
12.9%
13.1%
12.9%
10.6%
11.2%
11.3%
7.8%
7.5%
6.4%
9.6%
9.2%
8.3%
12.6%
11.7%
10.6%
4.6%
3.9%
3.3%
7.7%
8.6%
8.3%
10.4%
10.5%
4.8%
8.3%
7.8%
7.2%
5.4%
5.9%
7.0%
6.9%
7.6%
8.4%
2.1%
2.9%
3.2%
11.1%
13.2%
11.6%
8.1%
8.4%
8.8%
2.0%
2.1%
0.7%
7.8%
8.1%
8.4%
5.5%
6.1%
6.5%
10.7%
10.9%
6.7%
15.9%
16.8%
11.9%
6.1%
5.7%
6.2%
9.8%
11.6%
-7.7%
9.3%
9.2%
9.8%
8.1%
8.4%
8.3%

Promedio
ltimos 2
aos
-2.6%
5.6%
16.9%
3.1%
1.7%
5.7%
17.2%
10.9%
9.7%
4.3%
5.4%
6.5%
0.3%
9.0%
6.5%
4.2%
4.2%
5.6%
3.1%
9.7%
9.3%
0.4%
8.8%
6.2%
-0.5%
8.6%
2.5%
-11.4%
5.1%
6.5%

5.04%
<--- Tasa promedio de consultas.
<--- Diferencia

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022 CCB

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 6-PIB 2010, tres metodologas

ESCENARIOS DE VARIACION DEL PIB EN EL 2011


SEGN ACTIVIDAD ECONOMICA, DIVISION ECONOMICA y VARIACION ESTRUCTURAL HISTORICA
(En millones de dlares de 1996)

AO 2010
GRAN DIVISION ECONOMICA

1. Agricultura, silvicultura y caza


2. Pesca (2)
3. Explotacin de canteras
Subtotal Sector Primario
4. Industria Manufacturera
5. Electricidad, gas y agua
6. Construccin
7. Transporte, almacenamiento y comunicaciones
Subtotal Sector Secundario y de infraestructura
8. Comercio al por mayor y al por menor
9. Hoteles y Restaurantes
10. Intermediacin Financiera
11. Actividades Inmobiliarias, empresariales y de alquiler
12. Enseanza Privada
Menos: Servicio de intermediacin financiera
Subtotal Sector Terciario (comercial y financiero)
13. Actividades de servicio sociales y de salud privada
14. Otras actividades comunitarias, sociales y personales
15. Productores de servicios gubernamentales
Construccin
Actividades Inmobiliarias, empresariales y de alquiler
Hogares privados con servicio domstico
16. Productores de servicios domsticos
Subtotal Sector Terciario (oficial y personal)
Ms: Derechos de importancion e ITBM
Ms: ITBM que graba las compras de los hogares
Ms: Otros impuestos a los productores
Menos: Subvenciones a los productos
Subtotal Impuestos y transferencias
Producto Interno Bruto Real

ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA

VARIACION ANUAL AO 2011 BASADA EN LA TASA ACUMULADA ANUAL DE REFERENCIA (1)


ESCENARIO MODERADO

MONTO
ESTRUCTURAL

MONTO
ESTRUCTURAL
AJUSTADO

3.18%

657.9

664.4

0.98%

Sostenido

652.6

-0.81%

Sostenido

643.1

-2.26%

Desaceleracion en 90%

1.58%

327.2

334.0

2.08%

Cambio de tendencia

333.8

2.02%

Desacelera

331.3

1.25%

Desacelerado en 90%

1.46%
6.2%

302.2
1,287.3

357.0
1,355.4

18.14%
5.3%

Crecimiento sostenido

357.0
1,343.4

18.12%
4.4%

Sostenido

340.7
1,315.0

12.73%

Desacelerado en 75%

5.65%

1169.5

1184.5

1.29%

Desaceleracion en 25%

1190.1

1.76%

Desacelera

1181.9

1.06%

Desaceleracion en 80%

TASA
AJUSTADA

Observacion

MONTO
ESTRUCTURAL
AJUSTADO

TASA
AJUSTADA

Observacion

MONTO
ESTRUCTURAL
AJUSTADO

ESCENARIO PESIMISTA

ESTRUCTURA
AJUSTADA (*)
AO 2010 (%)

TASA
AJUSTADA

Observacion

2.2%

2.77%

573.3

603.5

5.26%

Sostenido

604.1

5.37%

Desaceleracion en 80%

596.8

4.10%

Desaceleracion en 60%

5.89%

1219.3

1,397.3

14.60%

Desaceleracion en 50%

1,410.2

15.66%

Desaceleracion en 65%

1,376.7

12.91%

Desaceleracion en 75%

23.43%
37.7%

4847.9
7,810.0

5,421.6
8,606.9

11.83%
10.2%

Desaceleracion en 25%

5,369.4
8,573.8

10.76%
9.8%

Desaceleracion en 40%

5,242.5
8,398.0

8.14%

Desaceleracion en 95%

14.14%

2925.1

3,103.4

6.10%

Desaceleracion en 60%

3,057.1

4.51%

Desaceleracion en 80%

3,013.6

3.02%

Desaceleracion en 90%

7.5%

2.90%

599.1

659.7

10.12%

Desaceleracion en 70%

633.3

5.72%

Desaceleracion en 80%

622.3

3.88%

Desaceleracion en 90%

7.93%

1640.0

1,719.6

4.85%

Desaceleracion en 50%

1,753.3

6.91%

Desaceleracion en 70%

1,717.6

4.73%

Desaceleracion en 80%

5.34%

1105.6

1,163.7

5.26%

Desaceleracion en 70%

1,108.0

0.22%

Desaceleracion en 70%

1,105.2

-0.04%

Desaceleracion en 85%

0.69%

141.8

150.8

6.34%

Desaceleracion en 20%

155.4

9.58%

Desaceleracion en 70%

151.2

6.64%

Desaceleracion en 60%

-2.16%
28.8%

-447.6
5,963.9

-466.9
6,330.2

4.32%
6.1%

Sostenido

-468.5
6,238.5

4.68%
4.6%

Sostenido

-468.6
6,141.2

4.70%

Desaceleracion en 25%

181.7

179.1

0.84%

185.4

6.55%

Desaceleracion en 50%

2.96%

613.1

647.4

5.59%

Desaceleracion en 50%

6.68%

1381.9

174.0

1,409.8

2.02%

Sostenido

4.39%

Desaceleracion en 75%

649.4

5.91%

Desaceleracion en 50%

1,427.1

3.27%

Sostenido

0.23%

47.1

50.9

8.02%

Desaceleracion en 50%

51.9

10.34%

9.59%

1985.3

2,121.9

6.88%

Desaceleracion en 25%

2,182.9

0.57%

117.6

118.0

2.10%

Desaceleracion en 50%

10.39%
20.9%

2150.0
4,319.0

2290.7
4,533.3

6.54%
5.0%

1.86%

385.3

410.5

6.53%

1.79%

371.4

419.3

12.89%

3.46%

715.4

764.3

6.84%

-0.77%
6.3%

-159.9
1,312.2

-175.5
1,418.7

9.74%
8.1%

100.00%

20,692.5

22,244.4

7.50%

3.0%
2.93%

Desaceleracion en 75%

637.8

4.02%

Desaceleracion en 50%

1,411.5

2.14%

Sostenido

Desaceleracion en 50%

50.5

7.18%

Desaceleracion en 75%

9.95%

Desaceleracion en 50%

2,122.3

6.91%

Desaceleracion en 80%

118.1

0.39%

Desaceleracion en 50%

117.7

0.09%

Desaceleracion en 75%

2352.9
4,611.1

9.44%
6.8%

2290.5
4,518.9

6.54%

Desaceleracion en 20%

431.9

12.08%

Desaceleracion en 25%

417.8

8.42%

Desaceleracion en 25%

Desaceleracion en 20%

387.7

4.39%

Desaceleracion en 25%

382.3

2.93%

Desaceleracion en 25%

Desaceleracion en 20%

764.3

6.83%

Desaceleracion en 25%

748.9

4.68%

Desaceleracion en 25%

Desaceleracion en 20%
Desaceleracion en 40%

-209.7
1,374.2

31.09%
4.7%

Desaceleracion en 25%
Desaceleracion en 50%

-195.1
1,353.9

21.98%
3.17%

Desaceleracion en 25%
Desaceleracion en 60%

22,141.0

7.00%

21,727.1

5.00%

4.6%

NOTA : (1) Se utiliza la Variacin Estructural Promedio Histrica 2007-2009, con el fin de respetar la tendencia da las actividads economicas, para tener una bases sustentable que refleje el cambio en la tendencia
economica mas fielmente el comportamiento estructural del crecimiento sostenido de las diversas actividades economicas que componen la actividad econmica.
(2) Se incorporan los cambios porcentuales a cada actividad, como efecto desacelerador de la actividad, que refleje el estimado esperado para cada rubro, de manera que se alcancen los valores de
crecimiento anual estimado para cada escenario.
FUENTE: Elaboracin propia con base en la informacin editada por la Contralora general de la republica, Direccin de Estadsticas y Censo, Panam en Cifras 2000-08 y otras publicaciones pertinentes

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022 CCB

Pagina 10 de 38

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 7-PIB Estructural 2011 Mod

ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES DEL PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO


DURANTE EL PERIODO DE EVALUACION DEL PESIN 2011-2025
EN CONSIDERACION AL PIB ESTIMADO DE 2010
A precios de 1996

Producto Interno Bruto 2010 de 6.78% (2)


ESCENARIO MODERADO
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA ESCENARIO PESIMISTA

AOS

VAR. ANUAL
(En miles de Balboas)

14,041.2
15,238.6
17,084.4
18,812.8
19,378.5
20,692.5
22,141.0
23,554.3
24,779.1
26,210.1
27,938.5
29,126.1
30,419.2
32,436.0
34,162.2
35,882.1
36,820.8
38,236.8
39,900.2
42,312.7
44,486.9

PRONOSTICOS

2005
REAL
2006
2007
2008
2009 PREELIMINAR
2010
ESTIMADO
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

(En %)

VAR. ANUAL
(En miles de Balboas)

8.53%
12.11%
10.12%
3.01%
6.78%
7.00%
6.38%
5.20%
5.78%
6.59%
4.25%
4.44%
6.63%
5.32%
5.03%
2.62%
3.85%
4.35%
6.05%
5.14%

15,238.6
17,084.4
18,812.8
19,378.5
20,692.5
22,244.4
24,246.4
25,943.7
27,733.8
29,835.6
31,650.3
33,387.4
35,861.6
38,088.4
40,322.9
41,833.8
43,990.4
46,573.7
49,847.6
53,148.7

(En %)

8.53%
12.11%
10.12%
3.01%
6.78%
7.50%
9.00%
7.00%
6.90%
7.58%
6.08%
5.49%
7.41%
6.21%
5.87%
3.75%
5.16%
5.87%
7.03%
6.62%

VAR. ANUAL
(En miles de Balboas)

15,238.6
17,084.4
18,812.8
19,378.5
20,692.5
21,727.1
22,704.8
23,567.6
24,628.2
26,089.2
26,845.0
27,846.1
29,569.1
30,991.3
32,389.7
33,008.3
34,079.4
35,356.3
37,357.4
39,043.7

(En %)

8.53%
12.11%
10.12%
3.01%
6.78%
5.00%
4.50%
3.80%
4.50%
5.93%
2.90%
3.73%
6.19%
4.81%
4.51%
1.91%
3.25%
3.75%
5.66%
4.51%

Crecimiento Anual
Aos
19

Tipo

Estudio

4
15
4
6
5
11

Histrico
Pronostico
Corto Plazo
Medio Plazo
Largo Plazo
Periodo

NOTAS:

Periodo
(2006-2023)

5.96%

6.90%

5.27%

(2006-2009)
(2011-2025)
(2011-2014)
(2015-2020)
(2021-2025)
(2015-2025)

6.19%

6.19%

6.19%

5.33%

6.51%

4.48%

5.79%

7.63%

4.27%

5.13%

6.21%

4.42%

4.84%

6.17%

4.29%

4.93%

6.09%

4.28%

Escenarios a partir de un Producto Interno bruto al 2009 de 3.40%, estimado con base al comportamiento historico al segundo trimestre del PIB, en el periodo 2001-2008.
ajustados a partir de un Producto Interno bruto al 2010 de 6.78%, derivado del comportamiento real del PIB durante los dos primeros trimestres del ao, con respecto al promedio estru
'del mismo durante los ultimos tres aos. Boletin de la Direccin de Estadisticas y Censo,
(3) Escenario Moderado esta basado en el escenario "mas probable" definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal, incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 5.5 miles d
(4) Escenario Optimista esta basado en el "mejor escenario" , definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal , incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 4.7 miles de millo
(5) Escenario Pesimista esta basado en el "peor escenario" , definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal , incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 4.7 miles de millon
(6) Las tasas de crecimiento de los escenarios moderado, optimista y pesimista para el 2011 con respecto al ao precedente fueron estimadas en 7.75, 8.0 y 4.99 por ciento. Tasa derivadas de la sim
del PIB, desarrollado para el ao 2010. La Hoja EXCEL es PIB Estructural Estimado 2009.
(1)

(2) Escenarios

Fuente:

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022


1/9/2015 7:51 PM

Desarrollo de ETESA basados en los escenarios elaborados por INTRACORP, por medio de un Modelo Matematico de Insumo- Producto, para mostrar los impactos directos,inducidos, paralelos
y del Conglomerado del canal en la economia nacional . "Estudio del Impacto Economico del Canal y el Proyecto de Ampliacion en el Ambito Nacional". Revision, Abril de 2006.

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 8-Estimacion PIB 2011-2025

EMPALME DE BASES 1996


PROYECCION 2011-2025

AOS

PRODUCTO
INTERNO BRUTO
TASAS
MODERADO

OPTIMISTA

PESIMISTA

1982
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

ESTUDIO DE LA DE DEMANDA 2009-2023


1/9/2015 7:51 PM

2.36%
6.81%
7.00%
6.38%
5.20%
5.78%
6.59%
4.25%
4.44%
6.63%
5.32%
5.03%
2.62%
3.85%
4.35%
6.05%
5.14%

2.36%
6.81%
8.00%
9.04%
7.03%
6.93%
7.62%
6.11%
5.52%
7.45%
6.24%
5.90%
3.77%
5.18%
5.90%
7.06%
6.66%

2.36%
6.81%
4.00%
4.48%
3.78%
4.48%
5.90%
2.88%
3.71%
6.16%
4.79%
4.49%
1.90%
3.23%
3.73%
5.63%
4.49%

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 9-Empalme de Bases 96-82 11-25

ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES DE LA ACTIVIDAD DE


MANUFACTURA EN EL PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO
DURANTE EL PERIODO DE EVALUACION DEL PLAN 2010-2024
EN CONSIDERACION AL PIB ESTIMADO DE 2010
A precios de 1996

Producto Interno Bruto 2010 de 6.78% (2)


ESCENARIO MODERADO
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA ESCENARIO PESIMISTA

AOS

2004
2005
2006
REAL
2007
2008
2009 Preliminar
2010 Estimado
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

MONTOS

VAR. ANUAL

MONTOS

VAR. ANUAL

MONTOS

VAR. ANUAL

(En miles de Balboas)

(En %)

(En miles de Balboas)

(En %)

(En miles de Balboas)

(En %)

PRONOSTICOS

1,026.9
1,066.7
1,126.7
1,170.9
1,165.7
1,190.1
1,204.9
1,208.3
1,204.9
1,252.3
1,351.2
1,395.2
1,446.9
1,507.1
1,565.0
1,630.5
1,690.7
1,748.6
1,801.6
1,895.4
1,960.4

3.88%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
2.09%
1.25%
0.28%
-0.28%
3.93%
7.90%
3.26%
3.70%
4.16%
3.84%
4.19%
3.70%
3.42%
3.04%
5.20%
3.43%

1,026.9
1,066.7
1,126.7
1,170.9
1,165.7
1,190.0
1,207.3
1,209.1
1,223.1
1,281.3
1,402.9
1,470.4
1,538.0
1,615.7
1,693.5
1,777.8
1,859.3
1,949.7
2,041.5
2,154.6
2,248.3

3.88%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
2.09%
1.45%
0.15%
1.16%
4.76%
9.49%
4.81%
4.59%
5.06%
4.81%
4.98%
4.58%
4.86%
4.71%
5.54%
4.35%

1,026.9
1,066.7
1,126.7
1,170.9
1,165.7
1,170.7
1,182.4
1,182.9
1,186.3
1,231.3
1,314.3
1,344.1
1,386.6
1,435.9
1,482.8
1,536.5
1,584.4
1,630.8
1,672.3
1,747.5
1,795.8

3.88%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
0.43%
1.00%
0.04%
0.29%
3.79%
6.74%
2.27%
3.16%
3.56%
3.27%
3.62%
3.12%
2.93%
2.55%
4.50%
2.77%

Crecimiento Anual
Aos
19

Tipo

Estudio

3
15
4
6
5

Histrico
Pronostico
Corto Plazo
Medio Plazo
Largo Plazo

NOTAS:

Periodo
(2006-2025)

3.30%

4.02%

2.85%

(2006-2010)
(2011-2025)
(2011-2014)
(2015-2020)
(2021-2025)

2.99%

2.99%

2.66%

3.54%

4.54%

3.03%

1.29%

2.00%

1.36%

3.83%

4.85%

3.17%

3.77%

4.86%

3.18%

Escenarios a partir de un Producto Interno bruto al 2008 de 8.3%, estimado previstoinicial del MEF para este ao.
Escenarios a partir de un Producto Interno bruto al 2008 de 8.71%, derivado del comportamiento real del PIB durante los dos primeros trimestres del ao, Boletin de la Direccin de ESTAdisticas y Censo,
' Evolucion Trimestral del PIB ( II Trimestre del 2008). Con un incremento de 9.5% del I semestre del ao con respecto al ao anterior. Ademas, el Indice Mensual de la actividad Econmica (IMAE)

(1)
(2)

de enero-agosto del 2008 muestra un incremento de 9.2 por ciento, con respecto al mismo periodo del ao anterior.

Escenario Moderado esta basado en el escenario "mas probable" definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal, incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 5.5 miles de millones
(4) Escenario Optimista esta basado en el "mejor escenario" , definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal , incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 4.7 miles de millones de $ U
(5) Escenario Pesimista esta basado en el "peor escenario" , definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal , incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 4.7 miles de millones de $ US
(6) Las tasas de crecimiento de los escenarios moderado, optimista y pesimista para el 2009 con respecto al ao precedente fueron estimadas en 7.75, 8.0 y 4.99 por ciento. Tasa derivadas de la simulacion
del PIB, desarrollado para el ao 2009. La Hoja EXCEL es PIB Estructural Estimado 2009.
(3)

Fuente:

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022

Desarrollo de ETESA basados en los escenarios elaborados por INTRACORP, por medio de un Modelo Matematico de Insumo- Producto, para mostrar los impactos directos,inducidos, paralelos
y del Conglomerado del canal en la economia nacional . "Estudio del Impacto Economico del Canal y el Proyecto de Ampliacion en el Ambito Nacional". Revision, Abril de 2006.

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 10Est. PIB MANUFACTURA ACP96-11

CUADRO No. 11

PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO


ESCENARIO BASE
Millones de Balboas de 1982
AO

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

TOTAL

2,725
2,978
3,153
3,323
3,460
3,542
3,613
3,693
3,980
4,206
4,142
4,523
4,765
4,551
4,674
4,905
5,080
4,988
4,321
4,388
4,744
5,190
5,616
5,923
6,091
6,198
6,372
6,658
6,947
7,170
7,346
7,365
7,496
7,759
8,359
8,972
9,771
10,982
12,111
12,396
13,240
14,167
15,071
15,855
16,771
17,876
18,636
19,464
20,754
21,859
22,959
23,560
24,466
25,530
27,074
28,465

VAR%

PIB (Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)

MODERADO
MODERADO
INDUSTRIA

9.3%
5.9%
5.4%
4.1%
2.4%
2.0%
2.2%
7.8%
5.7%
-1.5%
9.2%
5.3%
-4.5%
2.7%
4.9%
3.6%
-1.8%
-13.4%
1.6%
8.1%
9.4%
8.2%
5.5%
2.9%
1.8%
2.8%
4.5%
4.4%
3.2%
2.5%
0.3%
1.8%
3.5%
7.7%
7.3%
8.9%
12.4%
10.3%
2.4%
6.8%
7.0%
6.4%
5.2%
5.8%
6.6%
4.3%
4.4%
6.6%
5.3%
5.0%
2.6%
3.8%
4.4%
6.0%
5.1%

285.1
303.2
317.1
337.0
341.5
329.2
337.5
341.5
346.9
385.2
428.9
418.0
433.0
423.7
452.7
478.1
481.4
514.5
398.9
404.1
459.8
507.9
554.4
589.5
614.6
615.8
608.1
646.8
672.1
622.0
589.2
555.6
541.0
522.6
533.5
555.9
577.5
610.0
633.9
631.1
644.3
652.3
654.1
652.3
677.9
731.5
755.3
783.3
815.9
847.2
882.7
915.3
946.6
975.3
1,026.1
1,061.3

VAR%

6.3%
4.6%
6.3%
1.3%
-3.6%
2.5%
1.2%
1.6%
11.0%
11.3%
-2.5%
3.6%
-2.1%
6.8%
5.6%
0.7%
6.9%
-22.5%
1.3%
13.8%
10.5%
9.2%
6.3%
4.3%
0.2%
-1.3%
6.4%
3.9%
-7.5%
-5.3%
-5.7%
-2.6%
-3.4%
2.1%
4.2%
3.9%
5.6%
3.92%
-0.44%
2.09%
1.25%
0.28%
-0.28%
3.93%
7.90%
3.26%
3.70%
4.16%
3.84%
4.19%
3.70%
3.42%
3.04%
5.20%
3.43%

TOTAL

Poly. (TOTAL)

8,500
6,500
4,500
2,500

R = 0.9957
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000

TOTAL
Linear (TOTAL)

PIB MANUFACTURERO

800.0

R = 0.8114

(Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)


DATOS HISTRICOS 1970-2010

600.0
400.0
INDUSTRIA
Linear (INDUSTRIA)

200.0

PIB MANUFACTURERO

R = 0.9538

(Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)


2003 - 2024
1,200.0
(Historia reciente + Proyeccin)
1,000.0
800.0

600.0

INDUSTRIA
Linear (INDUSTRIA)

400.0

20.0%

TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB

15.0%
10.0%
5.0%

2025

2022

2019

2016

2013

2010

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

0.0%
-5.0%

1983

4.1%

12,500

10,500

1980

3.4%

14,500

1977

3.3%

5.2%

10.5%
10.2%
10.1%
10.1%
9.9%
9.3%
9.3%
9.2%
8.7%
9.2%
10.4%
9.2%
9.1%
9.3%
9.7%
9.7%
9.5%
10.3%
9.2%
9.2%
9.7%
9.8%
9.9%
10.0%
10.1%
9.9%
9.5%
9.7%
9.7%
8.7%
8.0%
7.5%
7.2%
6.7%
6.4%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
5.2%
5.1%
4.9%
4.6%
4.3%
4.1%
4.0%
4.1%
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
3.9%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
3.7%

1974

5.3%

%/TOTAL

1971

PROMEDIO
TASA ACUMULADA ANUAL

R = 0.9467

DATOS HISTRICOS

-10.0%

PREMISAS

-15.0%

a) PIB TOTAL: Escenario conservador, con crecimiento


promedio anual de 4.4%, para todo el periodo del
horizonte de planeamiento.

-20.0%

TOTAL
INDUSTRIA

-25.0%

b) PIB MANUFACTURERO: Escenario conservador,


con crecimiento promedio inferior al PIB total,
manteniendo su participacin estructural, en 4.7% del
PIB Total. Promedio de los ultimos tres aos.

ARCHIVO: 256838157.xls.ms_office
HOJA: 11-PIB-Moderado Base-1982

1/9/2015

PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO

15,000

5,000
-

PIB (Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)


Histrico reciente + proyeccin
45,000

25,000

800.0

400.0

INDUSTRIA

Linear (INDUSTRIA)

200.0

PIB MANUFACTURERO
(Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)
2003 - 2025 (Historia reciente + proyeccin)

R2 = 0.9851

1,400.0
1,200.0

1,000.0
800.0
600.0

INDUSTRIA

Linear (INDUSTRIA)
2024

2025

2023

2022

2020

2021

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2025

2013

2022

2010

2005

400.0

20.0%

TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB

15.0%
10.0%

5.0%
2019

2016

-10.0%

2007

0.0%

TOTAL
INDUSTRIA

PREMISAS

-15.0%

a) PIB TOTAL: Escenario conservador, con


crecimiento promedio anual de 5.7%, para todo el
periodo del horizonte de planeamiento.

-20.0%
-25.0%

b) PIB MANUFACTURERO: crecimiento promedio, de


ms de un punto porcentual a la tasa de crecimiento
del PIB, manteniendo su participacin estructural, de
4.7% del PIB Total. Promedio de los ultimos tres aos.
ARCHIVO: 256838157.xls.ms_office
HOJA: 12-PIB-Optimista Base-1982

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

600.0

2004

4.3%

R2 = 0.7725

PIB MANUFACTURERO
(Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)
DATOS HISTRICOS 1970-2010

2001

6.6%

2003

5,000

2004

15,000

1998

TASA ACUMULADA ANUAL

3.9%

Linear (TOTAL)

1995

4.2%

TOTAL

R2 = 0.9924

35,000

1992

6.6%

Linear (TOTAL)

10,000

-5.0%
PROMEDIO

TOTAL

1989

10.5%
10.2%
10.1%
10.1%
9.9%
9.3%
9.3%
9.2%
8.7%
9.2%
10.4%
9.2%
9.1%
9.3%
9.7%
9.7%
9.5%
10.3%
9.2%
9.2%
9.7%
9.8%
9.9%
10.0%
10.1%
9.9%
9.5%
9.7%
9.7%
8.7%
8.0%
7.5%
7.2%
6.7%
6.4%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
5.2%
5.1%
4.9%
4.6%
4.2%
4.0%
3.9%
4.0%
3.9%
3.9%
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%

1986

6.3%
4.6%
6.3%
1.3%
-3.6%
2.5%
1.2%
1.6%
11.0%
11.3%
-2.5%
3.6%
-2.1%
6.8%
5.6%
0.7%
6.9%
-22.5%
1.3%
13.8%
10.5%
9.2%
6.3%
4.3%
0.2%
-1.3%
6.4%
3.9%
-7.5%
-5.3%
-5.7%
-2.6%
-3.4%
2.1%
4.2%
3.9%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
2.09%
1.45%
0.15%
1.16%
4.76%
9.49%
4.81%
4.59%
5.06%
4.81%
4.98%
4.58%
4.86%
4.71%
5.54%
4.35%

R2 = 0.9444

DATOS HISTRICOS

1983

285.1
303.2
317.1
337.0
341.5
329.2
337.5
341.5
346.9
385.2
428.9
418.0
433.0
423.7
452.7
478.1
481.4
514.5
398.9
404.1
459.8
507.9
554.4
589.5
614.6
615.8
608.1
646.8
672.1
622.0
589.2
555.6
541.0
522.6
533.5
555.9
577.5
610.0
633.9
631.1
644.2
653.6
654.6
662.1
693.7
759.5
796.0
832.6
874.7
916.8
962.4
1,006.6
1,055.5
1,105.2
1,166.4
1,217.1

PIB (Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)


%/TOTAL

1980

9.3%
5.9%
5.4%
4.1%
2.4%
2.0%
2.2%
7.8%
5.7%
-1.5%
9.2%
5.3%
-4.5%
2.7%
4.9%
3.6%
-1.8%
-13.4%
1.6%
8.1%
9.4%
8.2%
5.5%
2.9%
1.8%
2.8%
4.5%
4.4%
3.2%
2.5%
0.3%
1.8%
3.5%
7.7%
7.3%
8.9%
12.39%
10.28%
2.36%
6.81%
8.00%
9.04%
7.03%
6.93%
7.62%
6.11%
5.52%
7.45%
6.24%
5.90%
3.77%
5.18%
5.90%
7.06%
6.66%

VAR%

1977

2,725
2,978
3,153
3,323
3,460
3,542
3,613
3,693
3,980
4,206
4,142
4,523
4,765
4,551
4,674
4,905
5,080
4,988
4,321
4,388
4,744
5,190
5,616
5,923
6,091
6,198
6,372
6,658
6,947
7,170
7,346
7,365
7,496
7,759
8,359
8,972
9,771
10,982
12,111
12,396
13,240
14,299
15,593
16,690
17,847
19,206
20,380
21,504
23,106
24,548
25,995
26,974
28,372
30,046
32,169
34,310

INDUSTRIA

1974

VAR%

1971

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

TOTAL

2004

AO

OPTIMISTA
OPTIMISTA

2003

ESCENARIO ALTO
Millones de Balboas de 1982

1/9/2015

PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO

15,000

5,000
-

PIB (Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)


Histrico reciente + proyeccin
30,000

20,000
15,000

800.0

400.0

INDUSTRIA

Linear (INDUSTRIA)

200.0

PIB MANUFACTURERO
(Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)
2003 - 2025
(Historia reciente + proyeccin)

1,200.0

R2 = 0.9851

1,000.0
800.0
600.0
2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Linear (INDUSTRIA)
2019

2018

2017

2016

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2015

INDUSTRIA

400.0

20.0%

TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB

15.0%
10.0%

5.0%

TOTAL

INDUSTRIA

-15.0%

a) PIB TOTAL: Escenario conservador, con


crecimiento promedio anual de 3.9%, para todo el
periodo del horizonte de planeamiento.

-20.0%
-25.0%

b) PIB MANUFACTURERO: crecimiento promedio, de


un punto porcentual inferior al PIB total, manteniendo
su participacin estructural, de 4.7% del PIB Total. En
concordancia con promedio de los ultimos tres aos.
1/9/2015

2025

2022

2019

2016

2013

2010

-10.0%

2007

0.0%

PREMISAS

ARCHIVO: 256838157.xls.ms_office
HOJA: 13-PIB-PESIMISTA Base-1982

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

600.0

2004

2.9%

R2 = 0.7725

PIB MANUFACTURERO
(Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)
DATOS HISTRICOS 1970-2010

2001

4.2%

2003

5,000

2004

10,000

1998

TASA ACUMULADA ANUAL

4.2%

Linear (TOTAL)

1995

2.8%

TOTAL

R2 = 0.9924

25,000

1992

4.4%

Linear (TOTAL)

10,000

-5.0%
PROMEDIO

TOTAL

1989

10.5%
10.2%
10.1%
10.1%
9.9%
9.3%
9.3%
9.2%
8.7%
9.2%
10.4%
9.2%
9.1%
9.3%
9.7%
9.7%
9.5%
10.3%
9.2%
9.2%
9.7%
9.8%
9.9%
10.0%
10.1%
9.9%
9.5%
9.7%
9.7%
8.7%
8.0%
7.5%
7.2%
6.7%
6.4%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
5.2%
5.1%
4.8%
4.6%
4.5%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
3.9%

1986

6.3%
4.6%
6.3%
1.3%
-3.6%
2.5%
1.2%
1.6%
11.0%
11.3%
-2.5%
3.6%
-2.1%
6.8%
5.6%
0.7%
6.9%
-22.5%
1.3%
13.8%
10.5%
9.2%
6.3%
4.3%
0.2%
-1.3%
6.4%
3.9%
-7.5%
-5.3%
-5.7%
-2.6%
-3.4%
2.1%
4.2%
3.9%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
0.43%
1.00%
0.04%
0.29%
3.79%
6.74%
2.27%
3.16%
3.56%
3.27%
3.62%
3.12%
2.93%
2.55%
4.50%
2.77%

R2 = 0.9444

DATOS HISTRICOS

1983

285.1
303.2
317.1
337.0
341.5
329.2
337.5
341.5
346.9
385.2
428.9
418.0
433.0
423.7
452.7
478.1
481.4
514.5
398.9
404.1
459.8
507.9
554.4
589.5
614.6
615.8
608.1
646.8
672.1
622.0
589.2
555.6
541.0
522.6
533.5
555.9
577.5
610.0
633.9
631.1
633.8
640.1
640.4
642.2
666.6
711.5
727.6
750.6
777.3
802.7
831.8
857.7
882.8
905.3
946.0
972.2

PIB (Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)


%/TOTAL

1980

9.3%
5.9%
5.4%
4.1%
2.4%
2.0%
2.2%
7.8%
5.7%
-1.5%
9.2%
5.3%
-4.5%
2.7%
4.9%
3.6%
-1.8%
-13.4%
1.6%
8.1%
9.4%
8.2%
5.5%
2.9%
1.8%
2.8%
4.5%
4.4%
3.2%
2.5%
0.3%
1.8%
3.5%
7.7%
7.3%
8.9%
12.39%
10.28%
2.36%
6.81%
4.00%
4.48%
3.78%
4.48%
5.90%
2.88%
3.71%
6.16%
4.79%
4.49%
1.90%
3.23%
3.73%
5.63%
4.49%

VAR%

1977

2,725
2,978
3,153
3,323
3,460
3,542
3,613
3,693
3,980
4,206
4,142
4,523
4,765
4,551
4,674
4,905
5,080
4,988
4,321
4,388
4,744
5,190
5,616
5,923
6,091
6,198
6,372
6,658
6,947
7,170
7,346
7,365
7,496
7,759
8,359
8,972
9,771
10,982
12,111
12,396
13,240
13,770
14,387
14,931
15,599
16,520
16,996
17,627
18,712
19,607
20,488
20,877
21,551
22,354
23,613
24,674

INDUSTRIA

1974

VAR%

1971

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

TOTAL

2004

AO

PESIMISTA
PESIMISTA

2003

ESCENARIO BAJO
Millones de Balboas de 1982

CUADRO No. 14
RESUMEN DE TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB, SEGN
ESCENARIOS
2011-2025
PERIODOS

TOTAL

DIFERENCIAS

TASAS HISTRICAS (PIB- base 982)


1980-1990
1.29%
0.79%
1991-2000
4.50%
-1.83%
2001-2009
6.14%
-5.17%
Mximo
12.4%
Promedio
-2.07%
ESCENARIO MODERADO
2009
6.81%
2010-2011
7.00%
-5.75%
2011-2014
6.09%
-4.80%
2015-2025
4.93%
-0.77%
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA
2009
6.81%
2010-2011
8.00%
-6.55%
2011-2014
7.75%
-5.87%
2015-2025
6.13%
-0.87%
ESCENARIO PESISMISTA
2009
6.81%
2010-2011
4.00%
-3.00%
2011-2014
4.18%
-2.90%
2015-2025
4.26%
-0.77%

TASA

INDUSTRIAL
% /TOTAL
2.08%
2.67%
0.96%
13.8%

9.58%
9.53%
7.05%
10.4%

2.09%
1.25%
1.29%
4.17%

6.03%
5.91%
5.84%
5.82%

2.09%
1.45%
1.88%
5.25%

6.01%
5.87%
5.78%
5.60%

0.43%
1.00%
1.28%
3.50%

6.01%
5.87%
5.78%
5.60%

CUADRO No. 15
ANLISIS DEL FACTOR DE CARGA Y PROYECCIN LINEAL
EE
801.7
859.4
980.4
1139.9
1148.0
1214.3
1348.7
1450.3
1469.1
1724.0
1756.5
1863.5
2030.5
2193.5
2225.9
2412.9
2565.7
2748.3
2579.9
2624.7
2746.1
2896.6
3011.6
3199.1
3400.0
3619.4
3795.8
4254.4
4295.8
4474.5
4967.5
4999.9
5221.7
5342.6
5571.0
5711.0
5861.3
6208.8
6386.4
6753.7
7299.5

Estimado
65.3
65.4
65.5
65.6
65.8
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.3
66.4
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.9
67.0
67.1
67.2
67.3
67.5
67.6
67.7
67.8
67.9
68.1
68.2
68.3
68.4
68.5
68.7
68.8
68.9
69.0
69.1
69.3
69.4
69.5
69.6
69.8
69.9
70.0
70.1

Error
-0.31
-0.29
-0.27
-1.75
-2.13
-2.91
-0.19
-2.77
1.75
-2.13
0.99
0.11
2.83
0.05
1.28
2.20
-0.68
1.24
5.06
0.38
0.20
0.12
1.74
0.56
2.58
1.60
0.92
-0.16
1.16
1.09
-4.09
-0.89
-2.34
-1.50
-1.05
-1.10
-0.90
-1.03
-0.76
1.28
0.11

0%
0%
0%
-3%
-3%
-4%
0%
-4%
3%
-3%
2%
0%
4%
0%
2%
3%
-1%
2%
8%
1%
0%
0%
3%
1%
4%
2%
1%
0%
2%
2%
-6%
-1%
-3%
-2%
-1%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-1%
7%
7%

Factor de Carga y
Energa Electrica Disponible
R = 0.5248

8000.0

74.0
72.0

7000.0

70.0

6000.0

68.0

5000.0

66.0

4000.0
64.0

3000.0

62.0

EE
FC
Poly. (FC)

2000.0
1000.0
0.0

58.0

56.0

FC

y = 0.1207x + 65.165
R = 0.4055

Factor de Carga

Linear (FC)

74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56

67.7
0.21% Promedios---->
0.00 -71.9%
-0.2%
Estimados: Pronstico Lineal
2011
70.2
70.1 <--valores ideales a adopar por el modelo
2012
70.4
68.5 por mecanismo de clculo de variacin anual
2013
70.5
68.7
2014
70.6
68.9
2015
70.7
69.1
2016
70.9
69.3
2017
71.0
69.5
2018
71.1
69.7
2019
71.2
69.9
2020
71.3
70.1
2021
71.5
70.3
2022
71.6
70.5
2023
71.7
70.7
2024
71.8
70.9
2025
71.9
71.2

60.0

Energa Elctrica Disponible

(1970-2010)
(1970-1998)
(1999-2008)
(1999-2009)
(1999-2010)
(2000-2008)
(2000-2005)
(2006-2010)

PROMEDIO VARIACION ANUAL


67.7
0.16%
66.6
0.10%
70.6
0.47%
70.4
0.15%
70.4
0.30%
70.9
70.6
70.1

-0.41%
0.25%
-0.19%

FC (%)

0.2%
0.2%
2.4%
0.7%
1.3%
-3.8%
4.1%
-6.4%
6.2%
-4.4%
1.5%
-3.9%
4.5%
-1.6%
-1.2%
4.6%
-2.7%
-5.6%
7.7%
0.4%
0.3%
-2.2%
2.0%
-2.8%
1.7%
1.2%
1.8%
-1.7%
0.3%
7.8%
-4.2%
2.2%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.2%
-0.1%
0.4%
-0.2%
-2.7%
1.9%

Energa (GWh)

Var Anual
65.6
65.7
65.8
67.4
67.9
68.8
66.2
68.9
64.5
68.5
65.5
66.5
63.9
66.8
65.7
64.9
67.9
66.1
62.4
67.2
67.5
67.7
66.2
67.5
65.6
66.7
67.5
68.7
67.5
67.7
73.0
69.9
71.5
70.8
70.4
70.6
70.5
70.8
70.6
68.7
70.0

Factor de Carga

FC
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

256838157.xls.ms_office
16- PerdidasPremisasProy.Mod.251/9/2015

CUADRO N. 18
PREMISAS DE PROYECCIN DE PRDIDAS DE ENERGA
Ventas de
PERDIDAS
Energia
AO
Sectores
Total
Transmision
Basicos
2001
3,839
1,066
129.19
2002
4,015
1,109
186.80
2003
4,201
1,036
150.86
2004
4,476
976
184.22
2005
4,658
930
155.52
2006
4,813
928
114.90
2007
5,174
911
121.28
2008
5,320
924
149.67
2009
5,602
1,016
126.95
2010
6,132
1,027
150.98

Estructura respecto a Energa Disponible


Distribucin

Transm.

936.81
921.90
884.88
791.58
774.68
812.86
789.62
774.55
888.76
876.42

5,000
5,222
5,343
5,571
5,711
5,861
6,209
6,386
6,387
7,299

2.6%
3.6%
2.8%
3.3%
2.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
2.1%

Distrib.
18.7%
17.7%
16.6%
14.2%
13.6%
13.9%
12.7%
12.1%
13.9%
12.0%

PORECENTAJE DE PRDIDAS RESPECTO A VENTAS SECTORES BASICOS(Relacin requerida por el modelo)


Transmisin
Distribucin
Tcnicas
No Tcnicas
Total
Ao
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
PROMEDIO
2001-2009
2001-2005
2006-2010
2010

27.77%
27.62%
24.66%
21.80%
19.97%
19.27%
17.60%
17.37%
18.13%
16.76%

3.4%
4.7%
3.6%
4.1%
3.3%
2.4%
2.3%
2.8%
2.3%
2.5%

24.40%
22.96%
21.07%
17.69%
16.63%
16.89%
15.26%
14.6%
15.9%
14.29%

8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
7.67%
7.66%
7.66%
7.64%
7.64%

16.40%
14.96%
13.07%
9.69%
8.63%
9.21%
7.60%
6.90%
8.23%
6.66%

21.58%
24.36%
17.83%
16.76%

3.21%
3.8%
2.5%
2.46%

18.37%
20.5%
15.4%
14.29%

8.0%
7.7%
7.64%

18.4%
12.5%
7.7%
6.66%

PREMISAS PROYECCION ESCENARIO MODERADO


Transmisin aumenta al 2014 % hasta no superar el
Al 2024 alcanza una tasa de
Tecnicas de Distribucin disminuyen en una tasa de
No tcnicas de Distribucin alcanzan en el 2014 la tasa menor
Transmisin
Total
2008
17.38%
2.81%
2009
18.13%
2.27%
2010
16.76%
2.46%
2011
17.28%
3.09%
2012
17.57%
3.48%
2013
17.75%
3.75%
2024
15.85%
2.95%
2025
15.78%
2.89%
Variacion periodo completo
Variacion Anual Promedio

-0.40%

0.4%
-2.15%

PREMISAS PROYECCION ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA


Transmisin aumenta % hasta no superar el
Al 2024 alcanza una tasa de
Tecnicas de Distribucin disminuyen en una tasa de
No tcnicas de Distribucin alcanzan en el 2014 la tasa menor
Transmisin
Total
2008
17.37%
2.81%
2009
18.13%
2.27%
2010
16.76%
2.46%
2011
16.73%
2.64%
2012
16.86%
2.97%
2013
16.90%
3.20%
2024
14.02%
2.52%
2025
13.78%
2.48%
Variacion periodo completo
Variacion Anual Promedio

-5.78%

0.3%
-1.58%

PREMISAS PROYECCION ESCENARIO PESIMISTA


Transmisin aumenta % hasta no superar el
Al 2024 alcanza una tasa de
Tecnicas de Distribucin disminuyen en una tasa de
No tcnicas de Distribucin permanecen aproximadamente en
Transmisin
Total
2008
17.37%
2.81%
2009
18.13%
2.27%
2010
16.68%
2.46%
2011
17.56%
3.39%
2012
17.94%
3.82%
2013
18.19%
4.12%
2024
16.76%
3.24%
2025
16.66%
3.19%
Variacion periodo completo
Variacion Anual Promedio

0.03%

0.9%
-1.58%

-0.005
-0.107
-0.116
-0.084
-0.035
-0.087
-0.013
0.044
-0.076

4.00%
2.50%
-0.05%
<6.5%
Distribucin

Tcnicas

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

No Tcnicas

14.6%
15.9%
14.3%
14.2%
14.1%
14.0%
12.9%
12.8%

7.66%
7.64%
7.64%
7.59%
7.54%
7.49%
6.94%
6.89%

6.90%
8.23%
6.66%
6.61%
6.56%
6.51%
5.96%
5.91%

5.1%
-0.74%

5.8%
-0.63%

-0.8%
-2.05%

2013-2024
2025-2024

3.50%
2.30%
-0.10%
<6.0%
Distribucin

Tcnicas

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

No Tcnicas

14.6%
15.9%
14.3%
14.1%
13.9%
13.7%
11.5%
11.3%

7.66%
7.64%
7.64%
7.54%
7.44%
7.34%
6.24%
6.14%

6.90%
8.23%
6.66%
6.56%
6.46%
6.36%
5.26%
5.16%

-2.8%
-1.58%

-1.4%
-1.34%

-1.4%
-2.94%

2013-2024
2025-2024

4.50%
3.20%
-0.025%
<6.5%
Distribucin

Tcnicas

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

No Tcnicas

14.6%
15.9%
14.2%
14.2%
14.1%
14.1%
13.5%
13.5%

7.66%
7.64%
7.56%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.21%
7.19%

6.90%
8.23%
6.66%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.31%
6.28%

-0.8%
-0.36%

-0.4%
-0.38%

-0.4%
-1.76%

2013-2024
2025-2024

19/ 38

EVOLUCIN DE PRECIOS DE LA ELECTRICIDAD


IPCPAN

INFPAN

IPC anual de Panam


(1987 = 100)

Facturacin
AO

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

Millones B/.

20.8
24.4
28.4
31.6
45.6
56.4
63.0
83.7
92.5
111.1
143.4
164.3
191.7
230.3
228.4
235.1
242.0
255.2
238.3
231.8
238.8
254.0
263.8
281.7
304.2
324.3
333.9
362.9
377.3
362.8
429.4
460.0
450.4
499.3
544.3
643.3
735.9

Ventas
GWh

710.3
775.4
869.8
984.0
980.7
1041.0
1143.1
1260.1
1268.2
1480.9
1472.3
1554.3
1674.8
1850.6
1816.5
1944.1
2045.1
2191.1
2063.1
1983.6
2053.0
2185.9
2311.4
2486.2
2671.9
2869.6
2984.0
3302.1
3392.3
3578.0
3801.1
3933.9
4113.1
4306.8
4595.2
4780.8
4936.2

Precio
Centavos/
KWh

2.93
3.15
3.27
3.21
4.65
5.42
5.51
6.64
7.29
7.50
9.74
10.57
11.45
12.44
12.57
12.09
11.83
11.65
11.55
11.69
11.63
11.62
11.41
11.33
11.39
11.30
11.19
10.99
11.12
10.14
11.30
11.69
10.95
11.59
11.85
13.46
14.91

ARCHIVO: 256838157.xls.ms_office
HOJA: 17- Precios EE- histrico

Inflacin de Panam

Frmula- Modelo

IPC-B-1987

42.20
43.00
45.40
48.50
56.90
60.00
62.40
65.40
68.30
73.80
84.30
90.60
94.50
96.60
98.20
99.10
99.10
100.00
100.50
100.60
101.40
102.70
104.50
105.00
106.40
107.40
108.80
110.10
110.80
112.40
114.10
114.40
115.80
117.70
119.40
122.80
125.90

COPE 1971-2002

IPC-B-1982

44.66
45.50
48.04
51.32
60.21
63.49
66.03
69.21
72.28
78.10
89.21
95.87
100.00
102.22
103.92
104.87
104.87
105.82
106.35
106.46
107.30
108.68
110.58
111.11
112.59
113.65
115.13
116.51
117.25
118.94
120.74
121.06
122.54
124.55
126.35
129.95
133.23

Frmula- Modelo

B/.de 1982

0.85
2.54
3.28
8.89
3.28
2.54
3.17
3.07
5.82
11.11
6.67
4.13
2.22
1.69
0.95
0.00
0.95
0.53
0.11
0.85
1.38
1.90
0.53
1.48
1.06
1.48
1.38
0.74
1.69
1.80
0.32
1.48
2.01
1.80
3.60
3.28

VARIACION % DE PRECIOS PROMEDIOS DE LA ENERGA


ELCTRICA EN PANAM Y DEL PETRLEO CRUDO
IMPORTADO EN USA, 1980-2006

Precio Electricidad

6.56
6.92
6.80
6.26
7.72
8.53
8.35
9.60
10.09
9.61
10.92
11.03
11.45
12.17
12.10
11.53
11.28
11.01
10.86
10.98
10.84
10.69
10.32
10.20
10.11
9.94
9.72
9.43
9.49
8.52
9.36
9.66
8.93
9.31
9.37
10.35
11.20

Var anual
B/.de 1982 Var.EEPma Var.Pet-EAI

0.36
-0.12
-0.54
1.47
0.81
-0.19
1.25
0.49
-0.49
1.31
0.11
0.42
0.73
-0.07
-0.57
-0.25
-0.28
-0.15
0.12
-0.14
-0.15
-0.37
-0.12
-0.09
-0.17
-0.22
-0.29
0.05
-0.96
0.83
0.30
-0.72
0.37
0.07
0.98
0.84

5.5%
-1.7%
-7.9%
23.4%
10.5%
-2.2%
15.0%
5.1%
-4.8%
13.7%
1.0%
3.8%
6.4%
-0.6%
-4.7%
-2.1%
-2.5%
-1.3%
1.1%
-1.2%
-1.4%
-3.5%
-1.2%
-0.8%
-1.7%
-2.3%
-2.9%
0.6%
-10.1%
9.8%
3.2%
-7.5%
4.2%
0.7%
10.5%
8.1%

Var-Pmadesfase 1 ao

60.0%
40.0%

Var.EEPma

Var.Pet-EAI

20.0%
0.0%

-20.0%
-3%
-15%
-15%
-5%
-10%
-50%
27%
-22%
20%
15%
-21%
-3%
-15%
-3%
7%
19%
-17%
-35%
54%
44%
-25%
14%
10%
28%
34%
21%

-40.0%

PETROLEUM PRICE EIA-DOE


-60.0%

VARIACIN % DE PRECIOS PROMEDIOS DE LA ENERGA


ELCTRICA EN PANAM Y DEL PETRLEO CRUDO
IMPORTADO EN USA, 1998-2006

-10%
10%
3%
-8%
4%
1%
10%
8%
-2%

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
PETROLEUM PRICE
0%
EIA-DOE September
-10%
2006 STEO-20%
-30%
-40%
Var.Pet-EAI

Var.Pet-EAI
Var-Pma-desfase 1 ao

199 199
8
9
-35% 54%

Var-Pma-desfase 1 ao -10% 10%

200 200 200


0
1
2
44% -25% 14%

200
3
10%

200
4
28%

200
5
34%

200
6
21%

200
7
-2%

3%

1%

10%

8%

-2%

0%

-8%

4%

11.3%

1/9/2015

CUADRO No. 18
PRONOSTICO DE PRECIOS DE LA ENERGIA
HIPOTESIS Se considera la expectativa de precios de referencia para el crudo por el EIA-DOE como optimista,
La proyeccion de precios Alta del crudo del EIA-DOE como insumo par la Proyeccion Pesimista.
Para la proyeccion de precios Moderada se promedian la proyeccion de precios del crudo a la alta y
la proyeccion de Referencia de EIA-DOE
PRECIOS DE LA ENERGA, SEGN ESCENARIOS
IMPORTED LOW -SULFUR LIGHT CRUDE OIL1 PRICE -EIA
Crude Oil Prices (2006 dollars per barrel)

AO
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024

PROMEDIO DE PRECIOS ALTOS - PROMEDIO DE PRECIOS ALTOS - PROMEDIO DE PRECIOS BAJOS- VARIACIN
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA
ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
ESCENARIO MODERADO (High
PR0MEDIO _
(High Price Oil)
Price Oil+Reference)/2
(Reference)
ESCENARIO
MODERADO
PRECIO
VARIACION
PRECIO
VARIACION
PRECIO
VARIACION

33.99
44.26
58.59
71.34
68.86
69.07
69.89
71.44
73.37
74.99
77.09
79.68
82.13
84.56
86.41
88.21
90.14
92.00
93.17
93.91

1.30
1.32
1.22
0.97
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.02
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.01
1.01

33.99
44.26
58.59
71.34
68.86
67.62
66.38
65.38
64.73
64.19
64.35
65.46
66.81
67.95
69.42
70.57
71.88
72.86
73.80
74.54

1.30
1.32
1.22
0.97
0.98
0.98
0.99
0.99
0.99
1.00
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.01
1.01
1.01

33.99
44.26
58.59
71.34
68.86
66.16
62.87
59.33
56.08
53.38
51.60
51.24
51.48
51.35
52.44
52.93
53.63
53.72
54.43
55.16

1.30
1.32
1.22
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.95
0.95
0.97
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.02
1.01
1.01
1.00
1.01
1.01

0.98
0.98
0.98
0.99
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.01
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.01
1.01
1.01

1/ Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners.


Anual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2008-2030
Report #: DOE/EIA-0383(2007)
Release Date: May 2007
Next Release Date: May 2008
Table 12. Petroleum Product Prices

256838157.xls.ms_office
18-Proyeccin Precios

1/9/2015

CUADRO No. 19

PROYECCION REAL DE PRECIOS DE LA ELECTRICIDAD (PRETOT)

Real USA

AO

PRETOT
HISTORICO

Variaciones reales de Precios USA


Reference case

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

High macroeconomic Low macroeconomic


growth
growth

VARACIONE DE PRECIOS REALES DEL


PRETOT
Var. Reales de PRETOT/Precios USA
Reference case

AO

High macroeconomic Low macroeconomic


growth
growth

9.48
8.52
9.35
9.65
8.94
9.46
9.62
10.62
11.49
11.53
13.21
11.06

PRONOSTICOS DE PRECIOS REALES


DEL PRETOT
Basado en Var. Precios Reales USA
Reference case

High macroeconomic Low macroeconomic


growth
growth

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
10.70
10.21
10.72
10.89
10.96
11.10
11.35
11.57
11.73
11.87
12.12
12.37
12.60
12.86
13.11
13.28

10.71
10.35
10.93
11.09
11.16
11.34
11.62
11.82
12.04
12.27
12.56
12.84
13.05
13.31
13.69
14.05

10.69
10.11
10.55
10.63
10.69
10.80
11.00
11.13
11.26
11.34
11.56
11.75
11.97
12.20
12.53
12.87

0.9674
0.9546
1.0493
1.0162
1.0062
1.0127
1.0232
1.0195
1.0137
1.0115
1.0209
1.0210
1.0185
1.0209
1.0191
1.0128

0.9681
0.9671
1.0559
1.0146
1.0061
1.0165
1.0248
1.0171
1.0180
1.0194
1.0233
1.0224
1.0164
1.0197
1.0291
1.0259

0.9669
0.9452
1.0440
1.0079
1.0057
1.0098
1.0190
1.0111
1.0121
1.0069
1.0193
1.0170
1.0183
1.0192
1.0269
1.0274

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

10.6972
10.2118
10.7156
10.8889
10.9563
11.0955
11.3531
11.5743
11.7331
11.8682
12.1168
12.3709
12.5995
12.8632
13.1089
13.2771

10.7054
10.3535
10.9326
11.0920
11.1591
11.3437
11.6244
11.8237
12.0364
12.2700
12.5563
12.8379
13.0490
13.3054
13.6923
14.0464

10.6915
10.1055
10.5504
10.6336
10.6939
10.7983
11.0036
11.1254
11.2596
11.3377
11.5565
11.7535
11.9688
12.1984
12.5264
12.8702

CUADRO No. 20
DEMANDA DE LA PROVINCIA DE BOCAS DEL TORO (CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN) Aos 2011 -2025
Estimado 2010 y Proyeccciones 2011 - 2025
BOFCO
AO

Pronostico AES - BOFCO

MWH
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

ESC. MODERADO (a)

75,278.5
79,076.0
80,262.1
81,466.1
82,688.1
83,928.4
85,292.1
86,571.5
87,870.1
89,188.1
90,526.0
93,609.0
93,749.4
95,507.6
97,299.1
99,124.6

GWh
75.28
79.08
80.26
81.47
82.69
83.93
85.29
86.57
87.87
89.19
90.53
93.61
93.75
95.51
97.30
99.12

Tasa
Anual
Crecimiento del consumo

TASAS (%)

GWh

BOFCO
TASAS (%)

5.04%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.62%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
3.41%
0.15%
1.88%
1.88%
1.88%

75.3
79.1
80.3
81.5
82.7
83.9
85.3
86.6
87.9
89.2
90.5
93.6
93.7
95.5
97.3
99.1

5.04%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.62%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
3.41%
0.15%
1.88%
1.88%
1.88%

1.85%

31.7%

1.85%

31.7%

ESC. OPTIMISTA (b)

ESC. PESIMISTA (c)

Ajuste

Ajuste

BOFCO + 5%
GWh
TASAS (%)

BOFCO -2. 5%

75.3
79.1
80.3
81.5
82.7
88.1
89.6
90.9
92.3
93.6
95.1
98.3
98.4
100.3
102.2
104.1

38.26%

5.04%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
6.57%
1.62%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
3.41%
0.15%
1.88%
1.88%
1.88%

2.18%

GWh

TASAS (%)

75.3
79.1
80.3
81.5
82.7
81.8 83.2
84.4
85.7
87.0
88.3
91.3
91.4
93.1
94.9
96.6

28.39%

38.3%

5.04
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.04
1.62
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
3.41
0.15
1.88
1.88
1.88

1.68%
28.4%

(a) Corresponde a la suma de la demanda previstas por BOFCO y AES (Jul. 2010) en el Informe Indicativo de Demanda 2011-2031, del CND.
(b) Se considera un crecimiento adicional de 5% para el consumo previsto por BOFCO, a partir del ao 2015, a efecto de una expansin econmica
de la regin Bocatorea en concordancia con in impulso adicional al desarrrollo del pais.
(c) Se considera una contraccin de 2.5% en el consumo pronosticado por BOFCO, a partir del ao 2015, consecuente con un probable retroceso
en la economa global y sus consecuentes efectos en la economia del Pas y especificamente en la region.

ARCHIVO: 256838157.xls.ms_office
HOJA: 20-Bloque = Bocas256838157.xls.ms_office

1/9/2015

CUADRO No. 21
DEMANDA CONSOLIDADA DEL SEGMENTO BLOQUE
(CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN)

Aos 2011 -2025


AO

ESC. MODERADO (a)


GWh

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Tasa
Anual

78.9
80.4
81.7
139.7
190.5
193.0
200.4
208.0
216.4
225.3
298.2
315.0
321.9
330.8
339.2
343.5

329.9%

TASAS (%)

ESC. OPTIMISTA (b)


GWh

1.3

78.9
80.4
81.7
141.1
190.8
200.5
215.7
224.3
290.2
304.5
321.3
333.3
340.2
343.5
346.9
351.3

10.30%

345.2%

1.9
1.5
71.0
36.4
1.3
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.1
32.4
5.6
2.2
2.8
2.5

TASAS (%)

ESC. PESIMISTA (c)


GWh

1.3

78.9
80.4
81.7
139.7
190.5
190.9
198.2
205.9
214.2
223.0
296.0
312.7
319.5
328.4
336.8
341.0

10.47%

332.2%

1.9
1.5
72.7
35.3
5.1
7.5
4.0
29.4
4.9
5.5
3.7
2.1
1.0
1.0

TASAS (%)

1.9
1.5
71.0
36.4
0.2
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.1
32.7
5.6
2.2
2.8
2.6
1.3

10.25%

(a) Corresponde a la suma de la demanda previstas en el Escenario Moderado de la Provincia de Bocas del Toro
mas los consumos previstos para los megaproyectos de infraestructura de la Ciudad de Panama hasta el ao 2025
(b) Corresponde a la suma de la demanda previstas en el Escenario Optimista de la Provincia de Bocas del Toro
mas los consumos previstos para los megaproyectos de infraestructura de la Ciudad de Panama hasta el ao 2025
(c) Corresponde a la suma de la demanda previstas en el Escenario Pesismista de la Provincia de Bocas del Toro
mas los consumos previstos para los megaproyectos de infraestructura de la Ciudad de Panama hasta el ao 2025

ARCHIVO: 256838157.xls.ms_office
HOJA: 21-Bloque Consolidado256838157.xls.ms_office

1/9/2015

Aos 2011 -2025

PRONOSTICOS DE DEMANDA
ESCENARIOS
AOS 2011 - 2025

AOS

ENERGIA TOTAL (GWH)


MODERADO OPTIMISTA PESISMISTA
EET- MOD

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

6,753.7
7,307.1
7,705.5
8,116.2
8,631.3
9,184.6
9,753.5
10,339.9
10,954.4
11,617.8
12,261.8
13,018.2
13,718.5
14,450.6
15,236.0
16,119.3
17,016.5

EET- OPT

6,753.7
7,307.1
7,713.1
8,142.9
8,685.8
9,258.6
9,860.4
10,488.7
11,130.4
11,879.7
12,555.4
13,284.1
14,010.4
14,784.6
15,616.6
16,542.5
17,497.7

EET- PES

6,753.7
7,307.1
7,684.3
8,079.3
8,583.9
9,123.6
9,675.7
10,242.7
10,843.9
11,493.0
12,122.9
12,864.5
13,550.1
14,266.8
15,035.0
15,897.6
16,772.5

DEMANDA (MW)
MODERADO OPTIMISTA PESISMISTA
DMG- MOD

1,122.0
1,190.4
1,256.6
1,323.6
1,405.8
1,494.0
1,584.6
1,677.7
1,775.1
1,880.3
1,982.0
2,101.6
2,211.8
2,326.9
2,450.3
2,589.0
2,729.7

DMG- OPT

1,122.0
1,190.4
1,257.9
1,327.9
1,413.0
1,502.5
1,596.2
1,693.7
1,792.9
1,908.9
2,012.6
2,124.1
2,234.8
2,352.5
2,478.7
2,619.2
2,763.7

DMG- PES

1,122.0
1,190.4
1,253.2
1,317.6
1,398.1
1,484.1
1,571.9
1,661.9
1,757.2
1,860.1
1,959.5
2,076.8
2,184.7
2,297.3
2,417.9
2,553.4
2,690.5

CUADRO No. 23
PARTICIPACION SECTORIAL EN EL PRONOSTICO DE ENERGIA ELECTRICA DE PANAMA
ESCENARIO MEDIO
AOS 2011 -2025

ESCENARIO MEDIO
AO

GWHRES
Residencial

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

0.261
0.296
0.307
0.296
0.299
0.298
0.292
0.278
0.281
0.258
0.260
0.255
0.246
0.241
0.234
0.232
0.237
0.241
0.254
0.234
0.232
0.232
0.238
0.234
0.232
0.234
0.227
0.220
0.234
0.233
0.225
0.232
0.241
0.251
0.258
0.262
0.262
0.262
0.258
0.267
0.264
0.261

GWHCOM
Comercial

0.278
0.286
0.279
0.270
0.297
0.290
0.270
0.273
0.285
0.258
0.273
0.267
0.262
0.259
0.258
0.253
0.252
0.247
0.235
0.233
0.231
0.243
0.250
0.262
0.269
0.277
0.274
0.278
0.312
0.324
0.316
0.324
0.332
0.365
0.371
0.382
0.364
0.377
0.387
0.368
0.369
0.374

GWHIND
Industrial

0.120
0.129
0.117
0.113
0.109
0.109
0.096
0.088
0.097
0.094
0.105
0.101
0.107
0.100
0.103
0.105
0.104
0.111
0.096
0.097
0.101
0.111
0.122
0.128
0.126
0.127
0.123
0.111
0.114
0.117
0.102
0.096
0.084
0.060
0.060
0.060
0.084
0.082
0.079
0.083
0.089
0.084

GWHOFI
Oficial

GWHALU

GWHAUT

Alumbrao publico Autoconsumo

0.087
0.092
0.106
0.094
0.105
0.117
0.132
0.135
0.152
0.145
0.160
0.154
0.153
0.154
0.147
0.145
0.141
0.138
0.141
0.136
0.129
0.121
0.122
0.123
0.122
0.128
0.129
0.119
0.111
0.109
0.109
0.116
0.111
0.110
0.114
0.112
0.112
0.112
0.109
0.108
0.106
0.106

0.017
0.019
0.019
0.016
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.018
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.014
0.013
0.015
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.011
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.019
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019

0.011
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

0.258
0.252
0.246
0.241
0.236
0.231
0.226
0.222
0.216
0.212
0.208
0.204
0.199
0.195

0.380
0.384
0.387
0.392
0.397
0.402
0.407
0.414
0.419
0.425
0.431
0.437
0.441
0.446

0.081
0.078
0.077
0.078
0.079
0.080
0.080
0.081
0.082
0.082
0.082
0.082
0.082
0.083

0.106
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106

0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019

0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

LECTRICA DE PANAMA

2011 -2025

ARIO MEDIO
GWHBLQ
Bloque

0.104
0.060
0.040
0.061
0.016
0.012
0.029
0.065
0.016
0.074
0.009
0.025
0.025
0.061
0.044
0.043
0.036
0.033
0.045
0.027
0.026
0.020
0.009
0.005
0.014
0.004
0.007
0.023
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.011
0.010

GWHOTR
Otros

0.009
0.009
0.010
0.006
0.010
0.012
0.011
0.010
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.000
0.001
0.001

GWHPER
Perdidas

0.114
0.098
0.113
0.137
0.146
0.143
0.152
0.131
0.137
0.141
0.162
0.166
0.175
0.156
0.184
0.194
0.203
0.203
0.200
0.244
0.252
0.245
0.233
0.223
0.214
0.207
0.214
0.224
0.210
0.200
0.235
0.213
0.212
0.194
0.175
0.163
0.158
0.147
0.145
0.150
0.141
0.143

GWH

D%GWH

Energia

1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

MW
Carga

7.0%
14.1%
3.6%
7.2%
4.4%
15.8%
3.6%
7.0%
13.2%
7.0%
4.7%
13.2%
3.5%
2.9%
9.9%
5.2%
6.5%
-0.8%
-5.2%
4.1%
5.2%
6.0%
4.5%
9.3%
4.7%
3.3%
10.4%
2.8%
3.9%
3.0%
8.0%
2.2%
3.0%
4.8%
2.3%
2.6%
5.4%
3.9%
8.4%
5.9%
5.6%

0.010
0.016
0.021
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.018
0.023
0.023
0.022
0.022
0.021
0.020

0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

0.143
0.143
0.142
0.143
0.142
0.142
0.142
0.137
0.134
0.131
0.129
0.128
0.129
0.128

1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

5.3%
6.2%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
5.8%
5.9%
5.4%
6.0%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.7%
5.4%

CUADRO No. 24
PARTICIPACION SECTORIAL EN EL PRONOSTICO DE ENERGIA ELECTRICA DE PANAMA
ESCENARIO ALTO
AOS 2011 -2025

ESCENARIO ALTO
AO

GWHRES
Residencial

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

0.261
0.296
0.307
0.296
0.299
0.298
0.292
0.278
0.281
0.258
0.260
0.255
0.246
0.241
0.234
0.232
0.237
0.241
0.254
0.234
0.232
0.232
0.238
0.234
0.232
0.234
0.227
0.220
0.234
0.233
0.225
0.232
0.241
0.251
0.258
0.262
0.262
0.262
0.258
0.267
0.264
0.261
0.257

GWHCOM
Comercial

0.278
0.286
0.279
0.270
0.297
0.290
0.270
0.273
0.285
0.258
0.273
0.267
0.262
0.259
0.258
0.253
0.252
0.247
0.235
0.233
0.231
0.243
0.250
0.262
0.269
0.277
0.274
0.278
0.312
0.324
0.316
0.324
0.332
0.365
0.371
0.382
0.364
0.377
0.387
0.368
0.369
0.374
0.381

GWHIND
Industrial

0.120
0.129
0.117
0.113
0.109
0.109
0.096
0.088
0.097
0.094
0.105
0.101
0.107
0.100
0.103
0.105
0.104
0.111
0.096
0.097
0.101
0.111
0.122
0.128
0.126
0.127
0.123
0.111
0.114
0.117
0.102
0.096
0.084
0.060
0.060
0.060
0.084
0.082
0.079
0.083
0.089
0.085
0.082

GWHOFI
Oficial

GWHALU

GWHAUT

Alumbrao publico
Autoconsumo

0.087
0.092
0.106
0.094
0.105
0.117
0.132
0.135
0.152
0.145
0.160
0.154
0.153
0.154
0.147
0.145
0.141
0.138
0.141
0.136
0.129
0.121
0.122
0.123
0.122
0.128
0.129
0.119
0.111
0.109
0.109
0.116
0.111
0.110
0.114
0.112
0.112
0.112
0.109
0.108
0.106
0.106
0.106

0.017
0.019
0.019
0.016
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.018
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.014
0.013
0.015
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.011
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.019
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019

0.011
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

0.251
0.245
0.238
0.233
0.227
0.221
0.217
0.212
0.208
0.204
0.199
0.194
0.190

0.384
0.387
0.391
0.395
0.400
0.403
0.410
0.416
0.422
0.428
0.433
0.437
0.442

0.079
0.078
0.080
0.082
0.083
0.083
0.084
0.085
0.086
0.086
0.087
0.088
0.088

0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.104
0.104
0.104
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105

0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019

0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

LECTRICA DE PANAMA

S 2011 -2025

NARIO ALTO
GWHBLQ
Bloque

GWHOTR
Otros

0.104
0.060
0.040
0.061
0.016
0.012
0.029
0.065
0.016
0.074
0.009
0.025
0.025
0.061
0.044
0.043
0.036
0.033
0.045
0.027
0.026
0.020
0.009
0.005
0.014
0.004
0.007
0.023
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.011
0.010
0.010

GWHPER
Perdidas

0.009
0.009
0.010
0.006
0.010
0.012
0.011
0.010
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001

GWH
Energia

0.114
0.098
0.113
0.137
0.146
0.143
0.152
0.131
0.137
0.141
0.162
0.166
0.175
0.156
0.184
0.194
0.203
0.203
0.200
0.244
0.252
0.245
0.233
0.223
0.214
0.207
0.214
0.224
0.210
0.200
0.235
0.213
0.212
0.194
0.175
0.163
0.158
0.147
0.145
0.150
0.141
0.143
0.143

D%GWH

MW
Carga

1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

7.0%
14.1%
3.6%
7.2%
4.4%
15.8%
3.6%
7.0%
13.2%
7.0%
4.7%
13.2%
3.5%
2.9%
9.9%
5.2%
6.5%
-0.8%
-5.2%
4.1%
5.2%
6.0%
4.5%
9.3%
4.7%
3.3%
10.4%
2.8%
3.9%
3.0%
8.0%
2.2%
3.0%
4.8%
2.3%
2.6%
5.4%
3.9%
8.4%
5.9%
5.7%
5.6%

0.016
0.021
0.020
0.021
0.020
0.024
0.024
0.024
0.024
0.023
0.022
0.021
0.020

0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

0.143
0.143
0.144
0.144
0.144
0.143
0.139
0.136
0.134
0.132
0.132
0.133
0.133

1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

6.4%
6.3%
6.2%
6.1%
5.9%
6.5%
5.4%
5.5%
5.2%
5.3%
5.4%
5.7%
5.5%

CUADRO No. 25
PARTICIPACION SECTORIAL EN EL PRONOSTICO DE ENERGIA ELECTRICA DE PANAMA
ESCENARIO BAJO
AOS 2011 -2025

ESCENARIO BAJO
AO

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

GWHRES

GWHCOM

GWHIND

GWHOFI

Residencial

Comercial

Industrial

Oficial

0.261
0.296
0.307
0.296
0.299
0.298
0.292
0.278
0.281
0.258
0.260
0.255
0.246
0.241
0.234
0.232
0.237
0.241
0.254
0.234
0.232
0.232
0.238
0.234
0.232
0.234
0.227
0.220
0.234
0.233
0.225
0.232
0.241
0.251
0.258
0.262
0.262
0.262
0.258
0.267
0.264
0.262
0.259

0.278
0.286
0.279
0.270
0.297
0.290
0.270
0.273
0.285
0.258
0.273
0.267
0.262
0.259
0.258
0.253
0.252
0.247
0.235
0.233
0.231
0.243
0.250
0.262
0.269
0.277
0.274
0.278
0.312
0.324
0.316
0.324
0.332
0.365
0.371
0.382
0.364
0.377
0.387
0.368
0.369
0.374
0.380

0.120
0.129
0.117
0.113
0.109
0.109
0.096
0.088
0.097
0.094
0.105
0.101
0.107
0.100
0.103
0.105
0.104
0.111
0.096
0.097
0.101
0.111
0.122
0.128
0.126
0.127
0.123
0.111
0.114
0.117
0.102
0.096
0.084
0.060
0.060
0.060
0.084
0.082
0.079
0.083
0.089
0.084
0.081

GWHALU

GWHAUT

Alumbrao publico Autoconsumo

0.087
0.092
0.106
0.094
0.105
0.117
0.132
0.135
0.152
0.145
0.160
0.154
0.153
0.154
0.147
0.145
0.141
0.138
0.141
0.136
0.129
0.121
0.122
0.123
0.122
0.128
0.129
0.119
0.111
0.109
0.109
0.116
0.111
0.110
0.114
0.112
0.112
0.112
0.109
0.108
0.106
0.106
0.106

0.017
0.019
0.019
0.016
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.018
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.014
0.013
0.015
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.011
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.019
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019

0.011
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

0.253
0.248
0.243
0.238
0.233
0.228
0.224
0.218
0.214
0.210
0.206
0.201
0.197

0.383
0.387
0.392
0.397
0.402
0.408
0.415
0.419
0.426
0.432
0.437
0.442
0.448

0.077
0.076
0.077
0.078
0.078
0.078
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.079

0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.106
0.106
0.105
0.106

0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019

0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

LECTRICA DE PANAMA

S 2011 -2025

NARIO BAJO
GWHBLQ

GWHOTR

GWHPER

GWH

Bloque

Otros

Perdidas

Energia

0.104
0.060
0.040
0.061
0.016
0.012
0.029
0.065
0.016
0.074
0.009
0.025
0.025
0.061
0.044
0.043
0.036
0.033
0.045
0.027
0.026
0.020
0.009
0.005
0.014
0.004
0.007
0.023
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.011
0.010
0.010

0.009
0.009
0.010
0.006
0.010
0.012
0.011
0.010
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001

0.114
0.098
0.113
0.137
0.146
0.143
0.152
0.131
0.137
0.141
0.162
0.166
0.175
0.156
0.184
0.194
0.203
0.203
0.200
0.244
0.252
0.245
0.233
0.223
0.214
0.207
0.214
0.224
0.210
0.200
0.235
0.213
0.212
0.194
0.175
0.163
0.158
0.147
0.145
0.150
0.141
0.143
0.143

1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

D%GWH

MW
Carga

7.0%
14.1%
3.6%
7.2%
4.4%
15.8%
3.6%
7.0%
13.2%
7.0%
4.7%
13.2%
3.5%
2.9%
9.9%
5.2%
6.5%
-0.8%
-5.2%
4.1%
5.2%
6.0%
4.5%
9.3%
4.7%
3.3%
10.4%
2.8%
3.9%
3.0%
8.0%
2.2%
3.0%
4.8%
2.3%
2.6%
5.4%
3.9%
8.4%
5.9%
5.3%
5.1%

0.016
0.021
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.018
0.023
0.023
0.022
0.022
0.021
0.020

0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

0.143
0.142
0.143
0.142
0.142
0.142
0.137
0.134
0.131
0.129
0.128
0.129
0.128

1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

6.1%
6.2%
5.9%
5.7%
5.7%
5.9%
5.3%
6.0%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.6%
5.4%

Demanda MAXIMA DE GENERACION por Participante, Consumidor y Por Barra 2011-2025 (MW)
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

ENSA
Santa Mara
BLM
France Field
Tocumen
Chilibre
Cerro Viento
Monte Oscuro
Geehan
Tinajitas
Total

77.17
49.03
55.89
47.56
47.17
83.63
50.93
14.02
35.83
461.23

79.96
50.80
57.91
49.28
48.87
86.65
52.77
14.53
37.12
477.90

82.35
52.32
59.64
50.75
50.33
89.24
54.35
14.96
38.23
492.17

88.33
56.12
63.98
54.44
53.99
95.73
58.30
16.05
41.01
527.94

94.14
59.81
68.18
58.02
57.54
102.02
62.13
17.11
43.71
562.64

99.04
62.92
71.73
61.03
60.53
107.32
65.36
17.99
45.98
591.90

105.09
66.77
76.11
64.76
64.23
113.89
69.35
19.10
48.79
628.08

111.43
70.79
80.70
68.67
68.10
120.76
73.54
20.25
51.73
665.97

118.63
75.37
85.92
73.10
72.50
128.56
78.29
21.55
55.07
708.99

125.24
79.57
90.71
77.18
76.54
135.72
82.65
22.76
58.14
748.51

133.34
84.71
96.57
82.17
81.49
144.50
88.00
24.23
61.90
796.91

140.58
89.31
101.82
86.63
85.92
152.35
92.77
25.54
65.27
840.20

148.14
94.12
107.29
91.29
90.54
160.54
97.76
26.92
68.78
885.37

156.24
99.26
113.16
96.28
95.49
169.31
103.11
28.39
72.53
933.77

164.78
104.69
119.34
101.55
100.71
178.57
108.74
29.94
76.50
984.81

173.78
110.41
125.87
107.10
106.21
188.33
114.69
31.58
80.68
1038.65

EDEMET
Locera
Maran
San Francisco
Centro Bancario
Llano Sanchez 115
Llano Sanchez 34
Las Guias
Chorrera 34
Miraflores 44
Balboa 44
Summit 44
Gamboa 44
Agua Clara 44
Total

95.61
109.09
98.06
78.45
106.56
0.25
20.54
64.60
17.98
16.19
1.78
2.70
2.70
614.49

99.06
113.03
101.60
81.28
110.41
0.25
21.28
66.94
18.63
16.78
1.84
2.79
2.79
636.70

102.02
116.41
104.64
83.71
113.71
0.26
21.92
68.94
19.19
17.28
1.90
2.88
2.88
655.71

109.44
124.87
112.24
89.79
121.97
0.28
23.51
73.95
20.58
18.53
2.03
3.09
3.09
703.38

116.63
133.08
119.62
95.70
129.99
0.30
25.06
78.81
21.94
19.75
2.17
3.29
3.29
749.61

122.69
140.00
125.84
100.67
136.75
0.31
26.36
82.91
23.08
20.78
2.28
3.46
3.46
788.58

130.19
148.55
133.53
106.83
145.11
0.33
27.97
87.98
24.49
22.05
2.42
3.67
3.67
836.79

138.05
157.52
141.59
113.27
153.86
0.35
29.66
93.28
25.96
23.38
2.57
3.89
3.89
887.27

146.96
167.69
150.73
120.59
163.80
0.38
31.57
99.31
27.64
24.89
2.73
4.15
4.15
944.58

155.16
177.04
159.13
127.31
172.93
0.40
33.33
104.84
29.18
26.28
2.88
4.38
4.38
997.23

165.19
188.49
169.43
135.54
184.11
0.42
35.49
111.62
31.07
27.98
3.07
4.66
4.66
1061.73

174.16
198.72
178.63
142.90
194.11
0.45
37.42
117.69
32.76
29.50
3.24
4.91
4.91
1119.39

183.53
209.41
188.23
150.59
204.55
0.47
39.43
124.02
34.52
31.08
3.41
5.18
5.18
1179.58

193.56
220.86
198.52
158.82
215.73
0.50
41.59
130.79
36.40
32.78
3.60
5.46
5.46
1244.06

204.14
232.93
209.37
167.50
227.52
0.52
43.86
137.94
38.39
34.57
3.79
5.76
5.76
1312.06

215.30
245.66
220.82
176.65
239.96
0.55
46.26
145.48
40.49
36.46
4.00
6.07
6.07
1383.79

EDECHI
Mata de Nance 34
Progreso
Total

67.98
13.48
81.46

70.44
13.97
84.41

72.54
14.39
86.93

77.81
15.43
93.24

82.93
16.45
99.37

87.24
17.30
104.54

92.57
18.36
110.93

98.15
19.47
117.62

104.49
20.73
125.22

110.32
21.88
132.20

117.45
23.30
140.75

123.83
24.56
148.40

130.49
25.88
156.37

137.63
27.30
164.92

145.15
28.79
173.94

153.08
30.36
183.44

1485.02

1575.81

1670.86

1778.78

1877.94

1999.39

2107.99

2221.33

2342.75

2480.44

2621.09

TOTAL DIST.

1157.18

1199.01

1234.81

1324.56

1411.63

CEMENTO PANAMA

8.05

8.23

8.23

8.23

8.23

8.23

8.26

8.26

8.26

8.26

8.26

8.26

8.26

8.26

8.26

8.26

PTP (Ch. Grande)

20.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37.00

37

37

37

CHANGUINOLA

11.00

12.86

13.39

13.95

14.54

15.15

15.80

16.48

17.20

17.95

18.75

19.56

20.40

21.28

21.28

21.28

TOTAL DEMANDA
Prdidas Trans. MW
Prdidas Trans. %
TOTAL GENERACIN

1,196.23
25.77
2.11%
1,222.00

1,257.10
31.70
2.46%
1,288.80

1,293.43
64.07
4.72%
1,357.50

1,383.74
59.16
4.10%
1,442.90

1,471.39
62.91
4.10%
1,534.30

1,545.41
83.39
5.12%
1,628.80

1,636.87
88.33
5.12%
1,725.20

1,732.60
93.50
5.12%
1,826.10

1,841.24
99.36
5.12%
1,940.60

1,941.15
104.75
5.12%
2,045.90

2,063.40
96.10
4.45%
2,159.50

2,172.81
101.19
4.45%
2,274.00

2,286.99
106.51
4.45%
2,393.50

2,409.29
112.21
4.45%
2,521.50

2,546.98
118.62
4.45%
2,665.60

2,687.63
125.17
4.45%
2,812.80