Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Forecast
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$77,131
$62,519
81.1%
$14,612
$80,953
5.0%
$68,382
84.5%
$12,571
$89,250
10.2%
$72,424
81.1%
$16,826
$120,000
34.5%
$97,320
81.1%
$22,680
$144,000
20.0%
$116,784
81.1%
$27,216
$144,000
0.0%
$116,784
81.1%
$27,216
$3,726
4.8%
$6,594
8.5%
$4,292
$4,133
5.1%
$7,536
9.3%
$902
$4,416
4.9%
$7,458
8.4%
$4,952
$6,000
5.0%
$10,032
8.4%
$6,648
$7,200
5.0%
$12,038
8.4%
$7,978
$7,200
5.0%
$12,038
8.4%
$7,978
$480
$652
$735
-$39
-$27
-$35
$937
9.25%
-$50
$1,323
9.25%
-$50
$1,565
9.25%
-$50
$3,773
$223
$4,182
$5,661
$6,604
$6,363
Income taxes
- % of income before taxes
Net income
$1,509
40.0%
$2,264
$89
39.9%
$134
$1,673
40.0%
$2,509
$2,264
$2,642
$2,545
$3,396
$3,963
$3,818
$1.52
$0.09
$1.68
$2.28
$2.66
$2.56
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$2,536
3.3%
$10,988
33
$9,592
56
$309
0.3%
$23,425
$2,218
2.7%
$12,864
33
$11,072
59
$324
0.2%
$26,478
$2,934
3.3%
$14,671
37
$11,509
58
$357
0.2%
$29,471
$3,960
3.3%
$19,726
60
$13,865
52
$480
0.4%
$38,031
$4,752
3.3%
$23,671
60
$16,638
52
$576
0.4%
$45,637
$4,752
3.3%
$23,671
60
$16,638
52
$576
0.4%
$45,637
$5,306
$792
$4,514
$6,116
$1,174
$4,942
$7,282
$1,633
$5,649
$8,182
$2,179
$6,003
$9,082
$2,793
$6,290
$9,982
$3,474
$6,508
$27,939
$31,420
$35,120
$44,034
$51,926
$52,145
Accounts payable
- Days purchases
Notes payable
$3,084
30
$6,620
$4,268
38
$8,873
$3,929
33
$10,132
$4,799
30
$14,306
$5,759
30
$16,914
$5,759
30
$13,325
Accrued expenses
$563
$591
$652
$876
$1,051
$1,051
$151
10%
$478
0.6%
$10,896
$9
10%
$502
0.6%
$14,243
$167
10%
$554
0.6%
$15,434
$226
10%
$744
0.6%
$20,951
$264
10%
$893
0.6%
$24,881
$255
10%
$893
0.6%
$21,282
$15
$7,980
$9,048
$17,043
$15
$7,980
$9,182
$17,177
$15
$7,980
$11,691
$19,686
$15
$7,980
$15,087
$23,082
$15
$7,980
$19,050
$27,045
$15
$7,980
$22,868
$30,863
$27,939
$31,420
$35,120
$44,034
$51,926
$52,145
1,491,662
1,491,662
1,491,662
1,491,662
1,491,662
1,491,662
$11.43
$11.52
$13.20
$15.47
$18.13
$20.69
Return on equity
Interest coverage ratio (times)
Notes payable / accounts receivable
Notes payable / shareholders' equity
Total liabilities / shareholders' equity
13.3%
8.9
60.2%
38.8%
63.9%
0.8%
1.4
69.0%
51.7%
82.9%
12.7%
6.7
69.1%
51.5%
78.4%
14.7%
7.1
72.5%
62.0%
90.8%
14.7%
6.0
71.5%
62.5%
92.0%
12.4%
5.1
56.3%
43.2%
69.0%
Sales
- YOY growth
Cost of goods sold
- % of sales
Gross margin
Research and development
- % of sales
Selling, general and administrative
- % of sales
Operating income
Interest expense
- Interest rate %
Other income (expenses)
Exhibit 1 (continued)
Balance Sheet ($000s except shares outstanding and book value per share)
Actual
Cash
- % of sales
Accounts receivable
- Days of sales
Inventories
- Days of COGS
Prepaid expenses
- % of sales
Total current assets
Property, plant & equipment at cost
Less: Accumulated depreciation
Net property, plant & equipment
Total assets
Forecast
$128,000
-11.1%
Micron Technology
D = book value of debt
BVE = book value of equity
MVE = market value of equity
$2,760
$5,603
$7,925
$975
$4,157
$9,135
$0
$276
$699
$10,132
$37,292
K = Wd x Kd x (1 - T) + We x Ke
Wd = weight of debt in Flash's capital structure
Kd = Flash's cost of debt capital (a)
T = Flash's income tax rate
We = weight of equity in Flash's capital structure
Ke = Flash' cost of equity capital
K = Flash's cost of capital
(a) at 18% weight of debt Flash will be within the 70% of accounts receivable limit of
the existing loan agreement, thus the 7.25% cost of debt capital. If Flash was over
this limit and changed to factoring, the cost of debt capital would increase to 9.25%,
and the equity beta and cost of equity capital would also increase.
25.8%
74.2%
1.25
9.6%
90.4%
1.36
1.28
0.0%
100.0%
1.00
1.00
0.76
21.4%
78.6%
18.0%
82.0%
0.76
1.27
3.70%
1.27
6.00%
11.3200%
18.00%
7.25%
40.00%
82.00%
11.32%
10.065400%
Selected Financial Information for Flash Memory, Inc., and Selected Competitors, 2007 through 2009
2007
Sales ($ millions)
EPS ($)
Dividend per share ($)
Closing stock price ($)
Shares outstanding (millions)
Book Value per share ($)
ROE
Capitalization (book value)
Debt
Equity
Beta coefficient
30-Apr-10 (a)
2007
77
1.52
-n/a
1.492
11.43
13.28%
81
0.09
-n/a
1.492
11.52
0.78%
89
1.68
-n/a
1.492
13.20
12.75%
5,688
-0.42
-7.25
769.1
10.08
-4.13%
5,841
-2.10
-2.64
772.5
8.00
-26.21%
4,803
-2.29
-10.56
800.7
5.81
-39.43%
28%
72%
34%
66%
34%
66%
n/a
24%
76%
31%
69%
40%
60%
SanDisk Corporation
Sales ($ millions)
EPS ($)
Dividend per share ($)
Closing stock price ($)
Shares outstanding (millions)
Book Value per share ($)
ROE
Capitalization (book value)
Debt
Equity
Beta coefficient
Micron Technology
2008
2009
3,986
0.84
-33.17
227.7
22.64
3.70%
3,351
-8.82
-9.60
225.3
15.27
-57.74%
3,567
1.83
-28.99
227.4
17.18
10.63%
15%
85%
22%
78%
21%
79%
30-Apr-10 (a)
1.46
9.35
847.6
6.61
21.00%
33%
67%
1.25
STEC, Inc.
3.71
39.84
229.3
18.13
17.87%
19%
81%
1.36
189
0.20
-8.74
49.8
3.72
5.40%
227
0.09
-4.26
50.0
3.63
2.36%
354
1.47
-16.34
49.4
5.65
26.06%
0%
100%
0%
100%
0%
100%
(a) Security analyst estimates for year-end EPS $ and Return on Equity; actual data on April 30, 2010, for all other items.
1.29
13.90
50.3
5.48
18.90%
0%
100%
1.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total
Investment in equipment
$5,648
26.15%
-$5,648
$7,322
26.15%
-$1,674
$7,322
26.15%
$0
$2,877
26.15%
$4,446
$1,308
26.15%
$1,569
$0
26.15%
$1,308
$0
$21,600
$17,064
79.00%
$0
$1,806
8.36%
$300
$28,000
$22,120
79.00%
$0
$2,341
8.36%
$0
$28,000
$22,120
79.00%
$0
$2,341
8.36%
$0
$11,000
$8,690
79.00%
$0
$920
8.36%
$0
$5,000
$3,950
79.00%
$0
$418
8.36%
$0
$2,430
$972
$3,539
$1,416
$3,539
$1,416
$1,390
$556
$632
$253
Net income
Depreciation of equipment @ 20% SLM
$1,458
$440
$2,124
$440
$2,124
$440
$834
$440
$379
$440
$1,898
$2,564
$2,564
$1,274
$819
$225
$2,564
$7,009
$2,843
$2,127
Sales
Cost of goods sold (includes equipment depreciation)
- % of sales
Research & development
Selling, general & administrative
- % of sales
Launch promotion
-$7,848
2,982.3
21.9%
17.4%
Cost of capital
10.07%
$2,200
Line Item
Cost of goods sold
Research and development
Selling, general and administrative
Interest expense
Other income (expenses)
Cash
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Prepaid expenses
Property, plant & equipment at cost
Accumulated depreciation
Accounts payable
Purchases
Accrued expenses
Income taxes payable
Other current liabilities
Assumption or Ratio
81.10% of sales
5.0% of sales
8.36% of sales
Beginning of year debt balance interest rate
$50,000 of expense each year
3.3% of sales
60 days sales outstanding
52 days of cost of good sold
0.4% of sales
Beginning PP&E at cost + capital expenditures
Beginning A/D + 7.5% of beginning PP&E at cost
30 days of purchases
60% of cost of goods sold
0.73% of sales
10% of income taxes expense
0.62% of sales