El Nino La Ninonimp

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ElNio&LaNiaaverage,low,world,daily,high,days,Mechanisms,Impacts,BENEFITSOFELNIOPREDICTION
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ElNio&LaNia
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BACKGROUND
TheoriginaldefinitionofElNiogoesbacktotheeighteenthornineteenthcenturywhenPeruviansailorscoinedthe
termtodescribeawarmsouthwardcurrentthatappearedannuallynearChristmasoffthePeruviancoast.Hencethe
nameElNio,Spanishfor"theChild,"referringtotheChristChild.Throughouttheyear,anorthwardcoolcurrent
prevailsbecauseofsoutheasttradewinds,causingupwellingofcool,nutrientrichwater.However,duringlate
Decembertheupwellingrelaxes,causingwarmerandnutrientpoorwatertoappear,whichsignalstheendofthelocal
fishingseason.
Overtheyears,thewarm,southwardcurrentoccasionallyseemedmoreintensethanusualandwasassociatedwith
periodsofextremewetnessalongthenormallyverydryPeruviancoast.Theseeventswerecalled"yearsof
abundance."Intheearlytwentiethcentury,researchersfoundastronginversecorrelation,calledtheSouthern
http://www.weatherexplained.com/Vol1/ElNioLaNia.html
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Oscillation,betweensurfacepressureoverthePacificandIndianOceans,hencethesaying,
"WhenpressureishighinthePacificandIndianOceans."Researcherstried,butfailed,to
correlatetheSouthernOscillationwithIndianmonsoonfailures.In195859,astrong
"yearofabundance"occurred,inwhichalargeareaofwarmwaterinthePacificOcean
extendedfromtheSouthAmericancoastwestwardtotheInternationalDateLine.
CoincidingwiththeextensivewarmwaterwerewetnessalongthePeruviancoast,low
surfacepressureintheeasternPacific,andhighpressureinthewesterntropicalPacific.
Consequently,scientistsintheearly1960sconcludedthattheseeventswereassociatedand
occurredinterannually.Sincethen,theterm"ElNio"(orwarmepisode)hasdescribed
notalocalwarmcurrent,butwarmingofthetropicalPacificsurfacewatersoccurring
everytwotosevenyearsandassociatedwithchangesintheatmosphericcirculationinthe
tropicalPacificandworldwide.
MECHANISMS
Figure1depictsthetypicalatmosphericandoceaniccirculationsthatexistinthetropical
Pacific.Theprevailingeasterlies(NEandSEtrades)convergeoverIndonesiain
conjunctionwiththeAsianmonsoon,producingwidespreadconvection.Additionally,
warmwater"pilesup"inthewesternPacific,duetotheeasterlywinds.Furthereast,the
SEtradesandequatorialeasterliesintheeasternandcentralPacificproduceupwellingof
coolwateralongtheequatorandcoastofSouthAmerica.
AstheElNioeventbegins,theeasterliesrelax,reducingtheamountofupwellingand
allowingthewesternwarmwatertomoveeastward.Astimegoeson,thewarmpoolinthe
westernPacificgrowsandexpandseastwardtowardthecentralPacific(figure2).Detailed
monitoringofrecordedElNioepisodeshasrevealedthatoncethewarmestwaterreachestheInternationalDate
Line,anomalousconvectionusuallyappearsinthatregion,accompaniedbyaweakeningoftheequatorialeasterlies.
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Thispatterntypicallyoccursduringtheborealwinter(JuneAugust)andmaybeprecededorfollowedbyawarming
thatcausestheInterTropicalConvergenceZone(ITCZ)tomovefarthersouththannormal,whichcontributesto
enhancedrainfallacrossEcuadorandnorthernPeru,producingthe"yearsofabundance."
IndeterminingtheatmosphericstatusofthetropicalPacific,climatologistsdevisedtheSouthernOscillationIndex
(SOI,Figure3).ItisthestandardizedsealevelpressuredifferencebetweenDarwin,Australia,andTahiti,French
Polynesia,inthecentralPacific(TahitiminusDarwin).Thus,whenthesurfacepressureishighatDarwinandlowat
Tahiti,theSOIisnegative(ElNio)conversely,whensurfacepressureislowatDarwinandhighatTahititheSOIis
positive.WhentheSOIisstronglypositive,coolerthannormalequatorialwaterappearsthroughoutthecentraland
easternequatorialPacific.ThisiscalledacoldepisodeorsometimesLaNia,"littlegirl."Climatologistsprefertouse
theacronymENSO(ElNio/SouthernOscillation)todescribethewarm(ElNio)andcold(LaNia)episodesthat
occurperiodicallyacrossthetropicalPacific.
IMPACTS
WhenElNioorLaNiadevelops,severalconsistentweatheranomaliestypicallyoccuraroundtheworld.Figures
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(CourtesyofNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA).)
4and5depictpotentialrainfallandtemperatureimpactsfromElNiowhilefigures6and7showpotentialrainfall
andtemperatureimpactsfromLaNia.MostclimateanomaliesassociatedwithElNioarereversedduringLaNia.
Ingeneral,amajorityoftheimpactsoccurinclimatesthathavesignificantoceanicinfluencesandborderthetropical
Pacific.Thus,theregionsoftheworldthatshowthehighestcorrelationtowarmorcoldeventsareIndonesia,
Australia,andthetropicalPacificislands.Weatheranomalies(droughtandexcessivemoisture)associatedwithEl
NioandLaNiacanhavesignificantimpactonagriculturalproduction(i.e.,poorcropsduetofailureoftheIndian
monsoon).However,severalfactorsmaketheimpactsoncropproductionlessdramaticandsometimesnonexistent.
Thesefactorsincludethetiming,duration,andintensityofENSOeventsatvariousstagesofcropdevelopment.
WhatishappeningintheatmosphereduringElNio?
Severalaspectsoftheatmosphere'sbehaviorareremarkableandentirelyuniquetotheENSOphenomenon.Some
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normallyaridtropicalhabitatsaretransformedintovirtualgardensduringElNio.Abundantandreliablerainsin
othertropicalareasbecomesparseandintermittentduringElNio.Extremeclimateshavealsobeenexperiencedin
thehigherlatitudesduringENSO,thoughthesearebynomeansuniquetoENSO.Onemarvelsthattheatmosphere,
especiallythousandsofmilesawayfromtheequatorialPacific,"knows"aboutthemodestwarmingofthosewaters
duringElNio!Yet,allregionsoftheglobearenotequallyaffected,norisENSO'simpactuniformthroughoutthe
year.HowdoweunderstandtheseatmospheremanifestationsofENSO?
AmeteorologicalviewoftheENSOphenomenonofferssomeanswers.HoweveritdoesnotexplainENSOitselffor
that,oneneedstoaccountfortheoriginoftheoceanicconditions,andthecoupledinteractionoftheoceanandthe
atmosphereiscentraltothatproblem.
Sohowdoestheatmosphere"know"aboutElNio?Itisusefultoimagineachainofatmosphericprocesses,witheach
linkinthischaincarryinginformationfromthelocalvicinityofElNioseasurfacetemperature(SST)anomalies
throughouttheglobalclimatesystem.Thefirstlinkisthetropicalresponseofrainproducingcumulonimbuscritical
becausedeepconvectionistheprincipalagentforexchangingheatfromEarth'ssurfaceandtherebycommunicating
ElNio'spresencetothefreeatmosphere.WettropicalclimatestendtocoincidewithwarmpoolSSTareainthe
western
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Pacific,andthecontinentalmonsoons.DuringElNio,rainfallincreasesoveradistanceofseveralthousandmiles
alongtheequatorfromthecentraltotheeasternPacificinresponsetothewarmingoftheunderlyingSSTs.Reduced
rainfalloccursontheperipheryofthiswetzone,andeventhecontinentalmonsoonsarenotsparedENSO'sinfluence.
TheoppositeeffecttendstobeexperiencedduringLaNia,althoughthewesteastscaleofrainfallanomaliesoverthe
equatorialPacificissomewhatreducedcomparedtowarmevents.
ThesecondlinkinthechainisthehorizontalcommunicationofElNio'spresence,andthisinvolvesthesensitivityof
theatmosphere'scirculationtoshiftsinorganizedcumulonimbusconvection.Excitedatmosphericwavemotions
adjusttheclimatologicalflowtothenewtropicalenergysourcesnotunlikethewavesgeneratedbyapebbledropped
intoapond,althoughforENSOthespatialscalesofforcingaremuchlargerandtheatmosphereisreadilyforced.The
majorconvectionanomaliesthemselvesareconfinedtowithinafewdegreesoftheequatorduringwinter.However,
associatedwiththemisacirculationofmassandenergyintheatmospherethatextendsseveralthousandmilespole
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wardintothesubtropics.Adeflectingforce,duetotheEarth'srotation,actsuponthisoutflowalongitspoleward
course,therebyinitiatingwavelikepatternsintheperturbedflow.Inaddition,theclimatologicalcirculationinhigher
latitudesactstochannelthecourseofthispolewardflowingenergy.Thisflowisdirectedfromwesttoeast,has
concentratedwesterliesalongthejetstreamseastofAsiaandNorthAmerica,andischaracterizedbystationarywaves
ofalternatinglowandhighpressure.
Throughinteractionswiththisbackgroundflow,theresultingatmosphericresponsetoElNioalsoconsistsofawave
trainpatternhavingalternatinglowandhighpressure.IntheNorthernHemisphere,thewindcirculatesparallelto
thesecontours,withlowpressuretotheleftofthemotion'sdirection.Thewavepathsfollow"greatcircle"routesthat
arctowardthepole,intothehigherreachesofthePacificNorthAmericanregion,andthencurvetowardtheequator
intothesubtropicalwesternAtlantic.AsimilarwavepatternintheatmosphereexistsintheSouthernHemisphere
withanattendantinfluenceontheclimateofSouthAmerica.
Theanomalouswavepatternsarereferredtoastheatmospheric"teleconnections,"linkingequatorialandhigh
latitudesduringENSO.Thesearebasedonahistoricalcompositeofhowtheatmospherehasbehavedduringtheten
strongestElNioandLaNiaeventsofthe195096period.SeveralfeaturestonotearethestrongerPacificjet
duringEl
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NioandaneastwardshiftofthestationarywavepatternoverthePacificNorthAmericanregionduringElNio.
Theseuppertroposphericchangesalterthecourseofstorms(cycloneandanticyclones)thatcontrolthedailyweather
fluctuationsinthehigherlatitudes.Changesinstatisticalpropertiesofstorms(forexample,theirfrequency,strength,
ororiginandtrack)accountforthebulkofENSO'ssignalinprecipitationandsurfacetemperatureinthehigher
latitudes.Such"stormtrack"feedbackconstitutesathirdessentiallinkalongthechainthatisinitiatedbythe
equatorialPacificSSTanomalies.
EachElNioeventhasauniquesignatureinitsSSTlifecycle,andthequestionoftheatmosphere'ssensitivitytosuch
interElNiovariationsisamatterofintenseresearchfocusingontheimplicationsforseasonalclimatepredictions.
Theatmosphericeventsarebeingactivelymonitoredbythescientificcommunity,andtheexpectedclimateresponse
continuestobeassessed.
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GlobalconsequencesofElNio
ThetwistsandturnsintheongoingdialoguebetweenoceanandatmosphereinthePacificcanhavearippleeffecton
climaticconditionsinfarflungregionsoftheglobe.Thisworldwidemessageisconveyedbyshiftsintropicalrainfall,
whichaffectwindpatternsovermuchoftheglobe.Imaginearushingstreamflowingoverandaroundaseriesoflarge
boulders.Theboulderscreateatrainofwavesthatextenddownstream,withcrestsandtroughsthatshowupinfixed
positions.Ifoneofthebouldersweretoshift,theshapeofthewavewouldalsochangeandthecrestsandtroughs
mightoccurindifferentplaces.
Densetropicalraincloudsdistorttheairflowaloft(510miabovesealevel)muchasrocksdistorttheflowofa
stream,orislandsdistortthewindsthatblowoverthem,butonhorizontalscaleofthousandsofmiles.Thewavesin
theairflow,inturn,determinethepositionsofthemonsoons,andthestormtracksandbeltsofstrongwinds
(commonlyreferredtoasjetstreams)thatseparatewarmandcoldregionsattheEarth'ssurface.InElNioyears,
whentherainareathatisusuallycenteredoverIndonesiaandthefarwesternPacificmoveseastwardintothecentral
Pacific,thewavesintheflowaloftareaffected,causingunseasonableweatherovermanyregionsoftheglobe.
TheimpactsofElNiouponclimateintemperatelatitudesshowupmostclearlyduringwintertime.Forexample,
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mostElNiowintersaremildoverwesternCanadaandpartsofthenorthernUnitedStates,andwetoverthe
southernUnitedStatesfromTexastoFlorida.ElNioaffectstemperateclimatesinotherseasonsaswell.Buteven
duringwintertime,ElNioisonlyoneofanumberoffactorsthatinfluencetemperateclimates.ElNioyears,
therefore,arenotalwaysmarkedby"typical"ElNioconditionsthewaytheyareinpartsofthetropics.
BENEFITSOFELNIOPREDICTION
ScientistsarenowtakingourunderstandingofElNioastepfurtherbyincorporatingthedescriptionsoftheseevents
intonumericalpredictionmodelscomputerprogramsdesignedtorepresent,intermsofequations,processesthat
occurinnature.Suchmodelsarefedinformationmostlyintheformofsetsofnumbers,describingthepresentstateof
theatmosphereoceansystem(forexample,observationsofwindspeeds,oceancurrents,sealevel,andthedepthof
thethermoclinealongtheequator).Updatedsetsofnumbersthatthemodelsproduceindicatehowtheatmosphere
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oceansystemmightevolveoverthenextfewseasonsoryears.Theresultsthusfar,thoughbynomeansperfect,givea
betterindicationoftheclimaticconditionsthatwillprevailduringthenextoneortwoseasonsthansimplyassuming
thatrainfallandtemperaturewillbe"normal."
PeruprovidesaprimeexampleofhowevenshorttermElNioforecastscanbevaluable.There,asinmostdeveloping
countriesinthetropics,theeconomy(andfoodproductioninparticular)ishighlysensitivetoclimatefluctuations.
Warm(ElNio)yearstendtobeunfavorableforfishingandsomeofthemhavebeenmarkedbydamagingfloods
alongthecoastalplainandinthewesternAndeanfoothillsinthenorthernpartofthecountry.Coldyearsare
welcomedbyfishermen,butnotbyfarmers,becausetheseyearshavefrequentlybeenmarkedbydroughtandcrop
failures.SuchcoldyearsoftencomeontheheelsofstrongElNioevents.
Since1983,forecastsoftheupcomingrainyseasonhavebeenissuedeachNovemberbasedonobservationsofwinds
andwatertemperaturesinthetropicalPacificregionandtheoutputofnumericalpredictionmodels.Theforecastsare
presentedintermsoffourpossibilities:(1)nearnormalconditions,(2)aweakElNiowithaslightlywetterthan
normalgrowingseason,(3)afullblownElNiowithflooding,and(4)coolerthannormalwatersoffshore,withhigher
thannormalchanceofdrought.
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Oncetheforecastisissued,farmerrepresentativesandgovernmentofficialsmeettodecideontheappropriate
combinationofcropstosowinordertomaximizetheoverallyield.Riceandcotton,twooftheprimarycropsgrownin
northernPeru,arehighlysensitivetothequantitiesandtimingofrainfall.Ricethrivesonwetconditionsduringthe
growingseasonfollowedbydrierconditionsduringtheripeningphase.Cotton,withitsdeeperrootsystem,can
toleratedrierweather.Hence,aforecastofElNioweathermightinducefarmerstosowmorericeandlesscotton
thaninayearwithoutElNio.
CountriesthathavetakensimilarinitiativesincludeAustralia,Brazil,Ethiopia,andIndia.Althoughtropicalcountries
havethemosttogainfromsuccessfulpredictionofElNio,formanycountriesoutsidethetropics,suchasJapanand
theUnitedStates,moreaccuratepredictionofElNiowillalsobenefitstrategicplanninginareassuchasagriculture,
andthemanagementofwaterresourcesandreservesofgrainandfueloil.
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Encouragedbytheprogressthroughoutthe1990s,scientistsandgovernmentsinmanycountriesareworkingtogether
todesignandbuildaglobalsystemfor(1)observingthetropicaloceans,(2)predictingElNioandotherirregular
climaterhythms,and(3)makingroutineclimatepredictionsreadilyavailabletothosewhoneedthemforplanning
purposes,muchasweatherforecastsaremadeavailabletothepublictoday.Theabilitytoanticipatehowclimatewill
changefromoneyeartothenextwillleadtobettermanagementofagriculture,watersupplies,fisheries,andother
resources.Byincorporatingclimatepredictionsintomanagementdecision,humankindisbecomingbetteradaptedto
theirregularrhythmsofclimate.
THEPACIFICDECADALOSCILLATION
ThePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)isalonglivedElNiolikepatternofPacificclimatevariability.Whilethetwo
climateoscillationshavesimilarspatialclimatefingerprints,theyhaveverydifferentbehaviorintime.Fisheries
scientistStevenHarecoinedtheterm"PacificDecadalOscillation"in1996whileresearchingconnectionsbetween
AlaskasalmonproductioncyclesandPacificclimate(hisdissertationtopicwithadvisorRobertFrancis).
TwomaincharacteristicsdistinguishPDOfromElNio/SouthernOscillation(ENSO):first,twentiethcenturyPDO
"events"persistedfor2030years,whiletypical
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ENSOeventspersistedfor618monthssecond,theclimaticfingerprintsofthePDOaremostvisibleintheNorth
Pacific/NorthAmericansector,whilesecondarysignaturesexistinthetropicstheoppositeistrueforENSO.Several
independentstudiesfindevidenceforjusttwofullPDOcyclesinthepastcentury:"cool"PDOregimesprevailedin
18901924andagainin19471976,while"warm"PDOregimesdominatedin19251946andfrom1977through(at
least)themid1990s.ShoshiroMinobehasshownthattwentiethcenturyPDOfluctuationsweremostenergeticintwo
generalperiodicities,oneof1525years,andtheotherof5070years.
MajorchangesinnortheastPacificmarineecosystemshavebeencorrelatedwithphasechangesinthePDOwarm
erashaveseenenhancedcoastaloceanbiologicalproductivityinAlaskaandinhibitedproductivityoffthewestcoastof
thecontiguousUnitedStates,whilecoldPDOerashaveseentheoppositenorthsouthpatternofmarineecosystem
productivity.
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CausesforthePDOarenotcurrentlyknown.Likewise,thepotentialpredictabilityforthisclimateoscillationisnot
known.SomeclimatesimulationmodelsproducePDOlikeoscillations,althoughoftenfordifferentreasons.The
mechanismsgivingrisetoPDOwilldeterminewhetherskillfuldecadeslongPDOclimatepredictionsarepossible.For
example,ifPDOarisesfromairseainteractionsthatrequire10yearoceanadjustmenttimes,thenaspectsofthe
phenomenonwill(intheory)bepredictableatleadtimesofupto10years.Evenintheabsenceofatheoretical
understanding,PDOclimateinformationimprovesseasontoseasonandyeartoyearclimateforecastsforNorth
Americabecauseofitsstrongtendencyformultiseasonandmultiyearpersistence.Fromasocietalimpacts
perspective,recognitionofPDOisimportantbecauseitshowsthat"normal"climateconditionscanvaryovertime
periodscomparabletothelengthofahuman'slifetime.
MADDENJULIANOSCILLATION
Weatherisnotaspredictableinthetropicsasinmidlatitudes.Thisisbecauseinmidlatitudestheweather
variables(clouds,precipitation,wind,temperature,andpressure)arelargelygovernedbytheuppertropospheric
Rossbywaves,whichinteractwithsurfaceweatherinaprocesscalledbaroclinicinstability.Inthetropicsthereisno
suchdominantinstabilityorwavemotion,andthereforethe
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weatherislesspredictableforthe110dayperiod.Untilrecentlyitwasbelievedthattropicalweathervariationson
timescaleslessthanayearwereessentiallyrandom.
In1971RolandMaddenandPaulJulianstumbledupona4050dayoscillationwhenanalyzingzonalwindanomalies
inthetropicalPacific.Theyused10yearsofpressurerecordsatCanton(at2.8SinthePacific)andupperlevelwinds
atSingapore.
TheoscillationofsurfaceandupperlevelwindswasremarkablyclearinSingapore.Untiltheearly1980slittle
attentionwaspaidtothisoscillation,whichbecameknownastheMaddenandJulianOscillation(MJO),andsome
scientistsquestioneditsglobalsignificance.Sincethe198283ElNioevent,lowfrequencyvariationsinthetropics,
bothonintraannual(lessthanayear)andinterannual(morethanayear)timescales,havereceivedmuchmore
attention,andthenumberofMJOrelatedpublicationsgrewrapidly.
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TheMJO,alsoreferredtoasthe3060dayor4050dayoscillation,turnsouttobethemainintraannual
fluctuationthatexplainsweathervariationsinthetropics.TheMJOaffectstheentiretropicaltroposphere,butismost
evidentintheIndianandwesternPacificOceans.TheMJOinvolvesvariationsinwind,seasurfacetemperature
(SST),cloudiness,andrainfall.Becausemosttropicalrainfallisconvective,andconvectivecloudtopsareverycold
(emittinglittlelongwaveradiation),theMJOismostobviousinthevariationofoutgoinglongwaveradiation(OLR),
asmeasuredbyaninfraredsensoronasatellite.
TheOLRsignalintheWesternHemisphereisweaker,andtherecurrenceintervalfortheeastwardpropagatingOLR
anomaliesintheEasternHemisphereisabout3060days.Howexactlytheanomalypropagatesfromthedatelineto
Africa(i.e.throughtheWesternHemisphere)isnotwellunderstood.ItappearsthatnearthedatelineaweakKelvin
wavepropagateseastwardandpolewardataspeedexceeding10m/s.
NORTHATLANTICOSCILLATION
Thereareseveralprominent,recurringmodesoflowfrequencyvariabilityovertheextratropicalNorthAtlanticand
Europe.PerhapsthemostwellknownofthesepatternsistheNorthAtlanticOscillation.TheNAOexhibitslittle
variationinitsclimatologicalmeanstructurefrommonthtomonthandconsistsofanorthsouthdipoleofanomalies
ofoppositesign,withonecenterlocatedoverGreenlandandtheotherspanningthecentrallatitudesoftheNorth
Atlanticat3540N.ThepositivephaseoftheNAOreflectsbelownormalheightsandpressureacrossthehigh
latitudesoftheNorthAtlanticandabovenormalheightsandpressureoverthecentralNorthAtlantic,theeastern
UnitedStates,andwesternEurope.Thenegativephasereflectsanoppositepatternofheightandpressureanomalies.
BothphasesoftheNAOareassociatedwithbasinwidechangesintheintensityandlocationoftheNorthAtlanticjet
streamandstormtrack,andinlargescalemodulationsofthenormalpatternsofzonalandmeridianalheatand
moisturetransport,whichinturnresultinchangesintemperatureandprecipitationpatternsoftenextendingfrom
easternNorthAmericatowesternandcentralEurope.
StrongpositivephasesoftheNAOareoftenassociatedwithabovenormaltemperaturesintheeasternUnitedStates
andacrossnorthernEuropeandbelownormaltemperaturesinGreenlandandacrosssouthernEuropeandthe
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MiddleEast.ThepositiveNAOphaseisalsoassociatedwithabovenormalprecipitationovernorthernEuropeand
ScandinaviaandbelownormalprecipitationoversouthernandcentralEurope.Oppositepatternsoftemperatureand
precipitationanomaliesaretypicallyobservedduringstrongnegativephasesoftheNAO.Duringprolongedperiods
dominatedbyonephaseoftheNAO,abnormalheightandtemperaturepatternsarealsooftenseenextendingwell
intocentralRussiaandnorthcentralSiberia.
NORTHATLANTICASIANMONSOONSINFLUENCEEACHOTHER'S
PATTERNS
Likeballroomdancersonacrowdedfloor,climaticphenomenalikeElNio,theAsianmonsoons,andtheNorth
Atlanticinfluenceeachother'spatterns.SedimentsfromtheflooroftheArabianSeanearOmanwerestudiedby
researcherslookingforevidenceofthestrengthofmonsoonsintheregionoverthepast10,000years.Thereisa
suggestionthatthelinkbetweentheNorthAtlanticclimateandtheAsianmonsoonisapersistentaspectofglobal
climate.Thelinkwasdemonstratedpreviouslybyvariousresearchers,butthenewresearchexaminesamuchlonger
timeperiod(thepast10,000years).Thenewstudyrevealssubstantialnaturalvariationinclimateandthemonsoonin
atimepriortoanysignificanthumaninfluence.Thenewinformationmayleadtoimprovedpredictionsofthe
monsooninthecomingdecades.
Thesignificanceoftheseresultsliesindemonstratingapatternofpersistentvariabilityinmonsoonsthroughoutthe
Holocene(from10,000yearsagotothepresent)thatmaybelinkedwithepisodicwarmingandcoolingoftheNorth
Atlantic.Theresultshighlighttheneedtoimproveourunderstandingofabruptanddifficulttopredictweakeningin
monsoonstrength,whichcouldaccompanymajorclimateshiftsintheNorthAtlanticinthefuture.
NOAAanduniversityresearchersusedfossilsoftheplanktonGlobigerinabulloidestoestimatewindintensity.During
amonsoon,theseasonalreversalofwindsbringsmoisturefromtheoceanontoland.Thewindsalsoblowsurface
watersoffshore,causinganupwellingofcolder,nutrientrichwaterwherethemicroscopicmarineanimalscanthrive.
BycountingtheamountofG.bulloidespresentindifferentlayersofthesedimentandusingradiocarbondating,the
scientistswereabletoapproximatemonsoonstrengthfrom10,500yearsagouptothepresent.Theresultingrecord
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showedanaturalvariationinthemonsoonfromonecenturytothenext.Thisprovidesnewevidencethatthestrength
ofAsianmonsoonvariessubstantiallyoncenturytomillennialtimescales,andtheneedtounderstandthisifwe're
goingtoensurehumanandecologicalsustainabilityinTibet,China,India,andtherestofSoutheastAsia.
Whileresearchersaren'tsureoftheexactcausesofthelinkbetweentheNorthAtlanticandtheAsianmonsoon,earlier
researchshowedtheamountofsnowontheTibetanplateaumayplayacriticalrole.Asthelandwarmsinthespring,
theairrisesabovethelandcausingapressuregradientthatdrivesthemonsoon.Moresnowontheplateauinspring
orearlysummerusesupallthesun'sheatingbecauseithastobemeltedandevaporatedbeforethelandcanwarm.So
themoresnowyouhaveinwinter,theweakerthemonsoonthefollowingsummers.Thereisspeculationthatwhenthe
NorthAtlanticiscold,areasdownwindliketheTibetanplateaustaycoldlonger,allowingmoresnowtopersistand
settingupaweakenedmonsoon.Themonsoonsnowcoverlinkmayleadtoastrongerormorevariablemonsoonin
thecomingcenturyastheNorthernHemispherecontinuestowarmfasterthanthetropics.
OtherstudiesshowthatchangesintheamountofsunlightcorrelatetovariationsinboththeNorthAtlanticclimate
andtheAsianmonsoon.Theresearchersaren'tcertainifthesunaffectseachsystemdirectlyorifsolarradiation
influencestheNorthAtlanticcirculation,whichinturnaffectsthemonsoon.Inanearlierstudy,evidencefrom
sedimentsinthesameregionshowedanincreaseinmonsoonstrengthinthepast400years.
YEAR2000
AstrongLaNiaatthebeginningof2000weakenedduringJulyandAugust,butwasstillevidentatyear'send.Asa
result,coolerthannormaltemperaturesthroughouttheeasternequatorialPacifichelddowntemperaturesinthe
tropics.However,temperaturesinthenontropicalNorthernHemispherecontinuedtoaveragenearrecordlevels.
Temperaturesnorthof20NwerethesecondwarmestonrecordduringtheDecember1999November2000period.
Inaddition,annualanomaliesinexcessof2FwerewidespreadacrossCanada,Scandinavia,muchofEasternEurope,
andtheBalkans.
FREQUENTLYASKEDQUESTIONSABOUTELNIOANDLANIA
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WhatisthedifferencebetweenLaNiaandElNio?
ElNioandLaNiaareextremephasesofanaturallyoccurringclimatecyclereferredtoasElNio/Southern
Oscillation.BothtermsrefertolargescalechangesinseasurfacetemperatureacrosstheeasterntropicalPacific.
Usually,seasurfacereadingsoffSouthAmerica'swestcoastrangefromthe60sto70sF,whiletheyexceed80Fin
the"warmpool"locatedinthecentralandwesternPacific.ThiswarmpoolexpandstocoverthetropicsduringEl
Nio,butduringLaNia,theeasterlytradewindsstrengthenandcoldupwellingalongtheequatorandthewestcoast
ofSouthAmericaintensifies.Seasurfacetemperaturesalongtheequatorcanfallaslowas7Fbelownormalduring
LaNia.BothLaNiaandElNioimpactglobalweatherpatterns.
HowoftendoesLaNiaoccurandhowlongdoesitlast?
ElNioandLaNiaoccuronaverageeverythreetofiveyears.However,inthehistoricalrecordtheintervalbetween
eventshasvariedfromtwotosevenyears.AccordingtotheNationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction,the
twentiethcentury'spreviousLaNiasbeganin1903,1906,1909,1916,1924,1928,1938,1950,1954,1964,1970,1973,
1975,1988,and1995.Theseeventstypicallycontinuedintothefollowingspring.Since1975,LaNiashavebeenonly
halfasfrequentasElNio.
LaNiaconditionstypicallylastapproximatelynineto12months,thoughsomeepisodesmaypersistforaslongas
twoyears.
DoesaLaNiatypicallyfollowanElNio?
No,aLaNiaepisodemay,butdoesnotalways,followanElNio.
WhydoElNioandLaNiaonlyoccurinthePacific?
Thisquestiondoesnothaveasimpleorstraightforwardanswer,sincethisisnotasettledissue.Fundamentally,no
oneisexactlysurewhythePacificshouldhaveanElNio/LaNiacycleandtheAtlanticnot.
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AprincipaldifferencebetweentheAtlanticandPacificisthewidthoftheequatorialregion.ThePacificismorethan
twiceaswideattheequator.ThisisimportanttoitscapacitytosustainElNio/LaNiabecauseofthepeculiar
dynamicsofequatorialwaves.Equatorialwavesarenotthefamiliarsurforswellseenonthesurface,butverylarge
scalemotionsthatcarrychangesincurrentsandtemperatureoverthousandsofmiles.Theperiodofthesewavesis
measuredinmonths,andtheytaketypicallythreemonthstomorethanayeartocrossthePacific.Surprisingly,these
wavesdonotspreadoutequallyinalldirectionslikewavesmadebydroppingarockinalake,butpreferentially
propagateeastwardorwestward.Whenwindsblowoveralargeareaoftheoceanconsistentlyforamonthormore,
equatorialwavesareusuallygenerated,andthesethenmodifyconditionsoveraverylargeregion,includingplacesfar
removedfromwheretheyweregenerated.Forexample,windsoverthefarwesternPacificmakewavesthatcarrythe
signaltothecoastofSouthAmerica,eventhoughthewindsintheSouthAmericanregionmaynotchangeatall.The
subsurfacechangesduetothearrivingwavescanthencauseseasurfacetemperaturechanges,entirelyduetowinds
occurringmanythousandsofmilestothewest.
WiththehugedistancesacrossthePacific,onesideoftheoceancanbereactingtoconditionsduetoonesetofwaves,
whiletheothercanbedoingsomethingcompletelydifferent.Asthewavespropagatebackandforth,acyclecanbeset
upthatoscillates(ElNio/LaNia).ThemuchsmallerAtlantic,ontheotherhand,isnotlargeenoughtosustain
muchofanoscillation,sincethewavescrossitsoquickly,ofteninonlyamonthorso.Thisdoesnotallowacross
oceancontrasttobecreated,noranoscillationtobesetup.Someindicationssuggestthatsomekindofweak
oscillationmayinfactoccurintheAtlantic,butitneverreachestheamplitudeofthatinthePacific.
AsecondreasonthatthePacificismoreimportantinthisregardisthatthefundamentaldriverofthewholeocean
atmospherecirculationisheat.ThelargewidthacrossthePacificallowstheexistenceofahugepoolofwarmwaterin
thewest.ThesmallerdistancesacrosstheAtlanticmeanthattheAtlanticwarmpoolismuchsmaller.ThePacific
warmpoolisagiganticsourceofheatthatisoneofthemaincontrolsoftheatmosphere.Whenthewarmpoolshifts
east(duringElNio)orshrinkswest(duringLaNia),theeffectsreverberatearoundtheworld,causingtheweather
disruptionsassociatedwiththiscycle.IntheAtlantic,thereissimplynotenoughofawarmpooltomakethatmuch
differencetoworldwideweather.SoevenifthereisananaloguetoElNiointheAtlantic,itdoesnothavethepower
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tocauseweatherdisturbancesthataffectmorethanlocalconditions.
WhydoElNioandLaNiaoccur?
ElNioandLaNiaresultfrominteractionbetweenthesurfaceoftheoceanandtheatmosphereinthetropical
Pacific.Changesintheoceanimpacttheatmosphereandclimatepatternsaroundtheglobe.Inturn,changesinthe
atmosphereimpacttheoceantemperaturesandcurrents.Thesystemoscillatesbetweenwarm(ElNio)toneutral(or
coldLaNia)conditionsonanaverageofeverythreetofiveyears.
DovolcanoesorseafloorventingcauseElNio?
TheideathatvolcanoescauseElNioeventsoriginallygainedprominencebecauseoftheeruptionofElChichnin
MexicoinFebruary1982(precedingtheElNioof198283),andtheeruptionofMt.PinatubointhePhilippinesin
June1991(precedingtheElNioof199192).However,whenthetimeseriesofElNioiscomparedtothetime
seriesofvolcaniceruptions,itbecomesclearthattherelationshipiscoincidental.Therearenumerouslargevolcanic
eruptionsaroundtheworldandalmostasmanyElNios.Inthatsituationthereisalmostalwaysaneruptionatsome
timeprecedinganyElNio.Scientistsarenowconvincedthatthisrelationshipiscoincidental.
Certainexperimentsbearthisout.Forexample,severalcomputermodelspredictedtheonsetofthe199192eventas
earlyasJanuary1991,basedonthestateoftheoceanatmospheresystematthattimewellbeforePinatuboerupted.
ThisindicatesthattheoceanatmospheresystemwasalreadygeneratingtheElNio,andPinatuboerupted
coincidentally.ComputermodelsintegratingtheequationsoffluidmotionandtheflowofheatroutinelyproduceEl
Niolikevariabilitycompletelyontheirown.Ofcourse,computermodelsarenotreality,buttheseexperiments
suggestthatElNioisanaturalmodeofvariabilityoftheoceanatmospheresystem,asmuchas,forexample,a
thunderstorm.WhilewedonothaveacompletepictureofhowtheElNiocycleoperates,thesemodels(anda
developingtheoreticalunderstanding)suggestthatthefluidenvelopeoftheEarthispronetodevelopingvariouskinds
ofinstabilities,rangingfromstormsystemslastingafewhoursordays,toElNio,tolongertermfluctuationsthatwe
arejustbeginningtoexplore.Thereisnoreasontothinkthatexternalprocessessuchasvolcanoesareanecessary
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element.
Noneofthisistosaythatvolcanoesdonotaffecttheclimate.Theymostcertainlydo,andsinceElNiosoccuragainst
thebackgroundexistingclimate,thereislittledoubtvolcaniceruptionsthatejectlargeamountsofdustintothe
stratospheremustmodifythefrequency,character,andstrengthofElNioevents,possiblyinimportantways.The
distinctionisbetween"slowlymodifyingthebackground"and"causing"ElNio.
Asfarasdeepoceanventsmodifyingtheoceantemperatures,researchersnowthinkthatthissourceofheatdoes
contributetothelongtermevolutionoftheoceanstate.Thechemicalsignaturesofunderseaventsareofgreat
interestastracersoftheslowdeepcirculationoftheocean,andthereforethesesignaturesarestudiedcarefully.(The
deepcirculationissoslowthatitscurrentscannotbemeasureddirectly,sowelookattonguesofchemicaltracersto
estimatethespeed,direction,andtransportoftheflows.)Numerousscientificpapersdiscussthesequestions,
studyingavarietyofchemicalconstituents.Whatisconsistentlyfoundisthatthetracesspreadextremelyslowly
throughthewatercolumnandarevastlydiluted.Thereislittledoubtthatoververylongperiodstheeffectsof
underseaventingontheoceanarelarge,bothfortheirheatandfortheircontributiontothechemicalmakeupofthe
ocean.However,theseeffectsoccurontimescalesofthousandsofyears,andcertainlydonotproducethekindofrapid
signalsthatcharacterizeElNio.TotriggeranElNioevent,onewouldlookforasignalthatproducedsurface
variabilityonamonthtomonthoryeartoyeartimescale,andunderseaventinghasneverbeenobservedtodothat.
ItisindeedtemptingtolookfornicecleancausesforcomplexoscillationsliketheElNiocycle.Unfortunately,it
seemsthattheoceanatmospheresystemiscapableofgeneratingtheseoscillationsonitsown,andthetasknowisto
understandhowthishappens.Volcanoesandseafloorventingarepartoftheslowlychangingbackgroundstate
againstwhichphenomenalikeElNiooccur,andaddtothecomplexityofthetask.
Whyisn'ttheremuchpublicityaboutthecausesofElNioandLaNia?
ThereasonthatthereisnotmuchpublicityaboutthecausesofElNioandLaNiaisthatwedonotunderstandthe
originsoftheevents.Wedo,however,haveaprettygoodunderstandingofhowtheyevolveoncetheybegin,andthat
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allowsustomakeforecastssixtoninemonthsaheadforsomeregions.Thisistheinformationthatispublicized
becauseitisreasonablysecureknowledge.Ofcourse,thereareavarietyoftheories,andmanyscientistsareworking
onvariousaspectsofthegenesis,whichwouldpresumablyextendthepredictiveskilloutanotherfewmonthsoreven
years.
Thefactis,atseveralpointsoverthepasttwodecadesscientiststhoughtworkingtheoriesofwhatcausesElNiohad
beenfirmlyestablished.Unfortunately,naturehasshownthatthosetheorieswereatbestincomplete.Forexample,
duringthemid1980s,agroupatColumbiaUniversitydevelopedafairlysimpletheoryandwroteacomputermodel
toproducepredictionsbasedonit.Thiswassuccessfulinpredictingthe198687and199192eventsalmostayearin
advance.Thenalongcametheeventof1993,thenanotherin199495,themostprominentElNioofthelate1990s,
neitherofwhichdevelopedaccordingtotheideasintheirtheory.
ThemainreasonthisissodifficultisthattheprocessesthatcauseElNioandLaNiainvolvethefullcomplexityof
oceanatmosphereinteractiononaglobalscale.Nowthattheseasurfacetemperature(SST)drivingtheatmospheric
circulationisknown,areasonablyaccurateunderstandingofhowtheatmosphereworks(atleastintheory)hasbeen
developed.Withabasicunderstanding,atmosphericmodelscanmakeshorttermweatherforecasts,becausethe
oceanchangesratherslowly.However,whenoneconsiderslongertermphenomenalikeElNioandLaNia,itisnot
enoughtospecifytheSSTonemustconsiderhowtheoceanwillevolveunderthewinds,andthenhowthealtered
oceanwillmodifythewinds,andsoon,inmanytrickyandsensitivefeedbackloops.Wearejustbeginningtobeable
toseehowthesefundamentallycoupleddisturbanceswork,andgenerallyonlyinveryidealizedcases.Rememberthat
foralongtimemeteorologistsonlytalkedtometeorologists,andoceanographersonlytooceanographers.Nowweare
reallyattheinitialstagesofbeingabletothinkaboutthesecoupledproblems.
DoesElNiohaveapurpose?
ElNioispartofthenaturalrhythmoftheoceanatmospheresystem,asmuchaswintercoldorsummer
thunderstormsoranyotherweatherphenomenon.
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Inacomplicatedsystemlikethis,eachfeaturefillsaroleinthegrandschemeofthings.Theexactrolecannotbe
pinpointed,butscientistsdoobservethattheseeventsdrainthewestPacificofheatthatisbuiltupoverseveralyears
bythetradewinds.Inanycase,ElNiodoesnotexistinisolation,andanychangesinitwouldreverberatearoundthe
wholesysteminunpredictableways.Further,aspartofthenaturalenvironmentofthePacificbasinthattheanimals,
fish,birds,andplantshaveadaptedtooverthemillennia(itisknownthatElNioshaveoccurredthroughouthistory),
itisnotclearthatstoppingElNiowouldevenbedesirable.EvenifitwaspossibletomakeElNiodisappear,itis
unclearwhattheoutcomewouldbe.
WhatistherelationshipbetweenElNio/LaNiaandglobalwarming?
Thejuryisstilloutonthis.ArewelikelytoseemoreElNiosbecauseofglobalwarming?Willtheybemoreintense?
Thesearethemainresearchquestionsfacingthescientificcommunitytoday.Researchwillhelpusseparatethe
naturalclimatevariabilityfromanytrendsduetohumanactivities.Wecannotfigureoutthe"fingerprint"ofglobal
warmingifwecannotsortoutwhatthenaturalvariabilitydoes.Wealsoneedtolookatthelinkbetweendecadal
changesinnaturalvariabilityandglobalwarming.Atthistimewecannotprecludethepossibilityoflinks,butitistoo
earlytosaythereisdefinitelyalink.
IsElNioorLaNiaresponsibleforaspecifichurricane/tropical
storm/drought/fire/flood/winterstorm?
ItisinaccuratetolabelindividualstormsoreventsasLaNiaorElNioevents.Rather,theseclimateextremesaffect
thepositionandintensityofthejetstreams,whichinturnaffecttheintensityandtrackofstorms.DuringLaNia,the
normalclimatepatternsareenhanced.Forexample,inareasthatwouldnormallyexperienceawetwinter,conditions
wouldlikelybewetterthannormal.
ItisimpossibletoprovethatElNioorLaNiacauseaparticularevent,justasitisimpossibletosaythatwinter
causedaparticularsnowstormitisthelikelysuspect.
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WecannotrunexperimentstoseewhataparallelEarthwithoutElNioorLaNiawoulddo.ButagroupatNOAA's
ClimateDiagnosticCenterinBoulder,Colorado,istryingsomethingsimilarusingnumericalforecastmodels.First,
theyrunthemodelwiththeactualconditionsandproduceweatherforecasts,justliketheregularones.Thenthey
makeanotherrun,inwhicheverythingisthesameasthefirstoneexceptthattheychangethePacificSSTtobelikea
"normal"year.ThedifferencebetweentheseforecastsgivesanindicationoftheeffectofElNioandLaNia
conditionsonthespecificweathereventsbeingforecast.
WhatimpactsdoElNioandLaNiahaveontornadoactivityacrossthecountry?
Sinceastrongjetstreamisanimportantingredientforsevereweather,thepositionofthejetstreamdeterminesthe
regionsmorelikelytoexperiencetornadoes.ContrastingElNioandLaNiawinters,thejetstreamovertheUnited
Statesisconsiderablydifferent.DuringElNiothejetstreamisorientedfromwesttoeastoverthenorthernGulfof
MexicoandnorthernFlorida.Thusthisregionismostsusceptibletosevereweather.DuringLaNiathejetstream
extendsfromthecentralRockieseastnortheastwardtotheeasternGreatLakes.Thussevereweatherislikelytobe
furthernorthandwestduringLaNiathanElNio.
WhataretheimpactsofLaNia?
BothElNioandLaNiaimpactglobalandU.S.climatepatterns.Inmanylocations,especiallyinthetropics,La
Nia(orcoldepisodes)producestheoppositeclimatevariationsfromElNio.Forinstance,partsofAustraliaand
IndonesiaarepronetodroughtduringElNio,butaretypicallywetterthannormalduringLaNia.
IntheUnitedStates,LaNiaoftenfeaturesdrierthannormalconditionsintheSouthwestinlatesummerthroughthe
subsequentwinter.DrierthannormalconditionsalsotypicallyoccurintheCentralPlainsinthefallandinthe
Southeastinthewinter.Incontrast,thePacificNorthwestismorelikelytobewetterthannormalinthelatefalland
earlywinterwiththepresenceofawellestablishedLaNia.Additionally,onaverage,LaNiawintersarewarmer
thannormalintheSoutheastandcolderthannormalintheNorthwest.
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HowisLaNiainfluencingtheAtlanticandPacifichurricaneseasons?
Dr.WilliamGrayattheColoradoStateUniversityhaspioneeredresearcheffortsleadingtothediscoveryofLaNia
impactsonAtlantichurricaneactivity,andtothefirstandpresentlyonlyoperationallongrangeforecastsof
Atlanticbasinhurricaneactivity.Accordingtothisresearch,thechancesforthecontinentalUnitedStatesandthe
CaribbeanIslandstoexperiencehurricaneactivityincreasesubstantiallyduringLaNia.
DoesElNiocreatedangerousconditionsformarinelife,andwillithavealasting
effectonmarineanimals?
First,thereisnoquestionthatElNiohasseriouseffectsonlifeinmanyregions.
Second,itshouldberememberedthatElNioispartofthenormalrhythmofEarth,andoftheenvironmentthat
marinelifehasevolvedtoface.Aplantorcreaturewillnotlastlonginaplaceinwhichitcanonlyhandleideal
conditions.Withnaturalvariability,somewintersarecolderthanothers,someyearsdrier,etc.ElNioispartofthis
normalclimate,alongwithotherinfluencesthatarelessknown.Livingthingsmayhavevariedsuccessinthese
naturalfluctuations.SoElNiomaycauseatemporarydiebackofsomeformsofmarinelifeinsomeregions,or
reducethesurvivalrateofyoung,butitprobablydoesnothavealastingeffect.Forexample,ElNiodevastatesthe
populationofseabirdsoffPerubyreducingthefishstockonwhichtheylive.Butthosebirdswillbouncebacksoon
afterElNioisgone.If,however,ElNiobecamemorefrequent,thenonemightfindtheoverallcompositionof
marinelifechanginginthatregion.Buttheindividualeventsthemselvesprobablydonotcauseapermanentchange.
Sincenormalvariationscanhavelargeswings,suchasthosethatoccurduringElNio,theboundariesofwhere
particularformsoflifecansurvivearesomewhatsmallerthantheywouldbeiftheclimateweremoreconstant.For
example,palmtreescansurviveinSeattle,Washington,duringmostyears,sinceithasgenerallymildwinters.But
everytenyearsorsoakillingfrostoccurs,sonaturalpalmsdonotoccurthere.Butmanypeoplegrowthemingardens
andfindthattheythrivewithonlyoccasionalprotection.
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IsthereascalefortheintensityofElNio?
ThemostwidelyusedscaleisknownastheSouthernOscillationIndex(SOI),whichisbasedonthesurface
(atmospheric)pressuredifferencebetweenDarwin,AustraliaandTahiti,FrenchPolynesia.Itwasnotedasfarbackas
the1920sthatthesetwostationswereanticorrelated,sothatwhenTahitipressureishigh,Darwinpressureislow.
Thisreflectstheverylargescaleofthephenomenon,sinceonewouldnotusuallyexpectsuchacloserelationbetween
such
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(CourtesyofNationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction/ClimatePredictionCenter.)
ColdandWarmEpisodesbySeason
Thefollowinglistofcold(LaNia)andwarm(ElNio)episodeshasbeencompiledtoprovideaseasonbyseason
breakdownofconditionsinthetropicalPacific.Wehaveattemptedtoclassifytheintensityofeacheventbyfocusing
onakeyregionofthetropicalPacific(alongtheequatorfrom150Wtothedateline).Theprocessofclassification
wasprimarilysubjectiveusingreanalyzedseasurfacetemperatureanalysesproducedattheNationalCentersfor
EnvironmentalPrediction/ClimatePredictionCenterandattheUnitedKingdomMeteorologicalOffice.Anobjective
procedureforclassifyingintensityisbeingexploredatNCEP/CPC.Inthefollowingtable,weakperiodsare
designatedasCorW,moderatestrengthperiodsasCorWstrongperiodsasW+orC+,andneutralperiodsasN.
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
1950
1951
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
1978
1979
N
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1952
1980
1953
1981
1954
1982
W+
1955
C+
1983
W+
1956
1984
1957
1985
1958
W+
1986
1959
1987
W+
1960
1988
C+
1961
1989
C+
1962
1990
1963
1991
1964
1992
W+
W+
1965
W+
1993
1966
1994
1967
1995
1968
1996
1969
1997
W+
W+
1970
1998
W+
1971
1999
C+
1972
W+
2000
1973
C+
2001
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1974
C+
2002
1975
C+
2003
1976
2004
1977
2005
farawayplaces.WhenTahitipressureishigh,thatindicateswindsblowingtowardsthewest(normaltradewinds),
andwhenitislow,windsblowtotheeast(ElNio).
ScientistsusetheSouthernOscillationIndexforthreemainreasons,eventhoughitisanindirectmeasureofElNio
andtheselocationsarenotideallysitedforthispurpose.First,thetimeseriesatDarwinandTahitiaremorethan100
yearslong,andthereisnootherrecordthatwouldallowustocategorizetheElNiocyclethatfarback.Second,the
measurementofatmosphericpressureissimple(itisjusttheheightofacolumnofmercuryinabarometer)andnot
subjecttocalibrationproblems,as,forexample,thermometersare.Acolumnofmercuryisjustameasureoflength,
whichisaccurateandeasilyconvertiblebetweeninchesorcentimeters,whereasthermometersareinherentlyless
accuratesincetheyrelyonacarefullymadeglasstubethatmaybesubjecttoexpansionorirregularitiesalsothe
placementofthethermometer(inthesunorshadeorbreeze,nearbuildings,etc.)canhavealargeeffect.Forexample,
temperaturemeasuredincitiesshowsalongtermriseassociatedwiththeheatgeneratedbyurbanactivitiesandthe
increasedabsorptionofsolarheatbypavementcomparedwithforest.Thisisonethingthatmakesitdifficulttodetect
thesignatureofgreenhousewarming.Therefore,pressuremeasurementsarehighlydesirableforinterpretinglong
records.Third,pressuretendstobesimilaroverwideregions,whereasmoredirectlyimportantquantities(SSTand
winds)canhavemanylocaleffectsthatmakeithardtointerpretsinglepointmeasurementsasrepresentativeofthe
largescalesituation.
TheSOIisgiveninnormalizedunitsofstandarddeviation.Itcanbeusedasanintensityscale.Forexample,SOI
valuesforthe198283ElNiowereabout3.5standarddeviations,sobythismeasurethateventwasroughlytwiceas
strongasthe199192ElNiowhichmeasuredonlyabout1.75inSOIunits.Bythisstandard,theElNioofthelate
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1990sisaboutasstrongas199192.However,theseasurfacetemperatureanomaly,November1997,wasaboutas
largeasin198283,andsomemightsaythatisamoreimportantmeasure.Thisshowsthatthereisnosinglenumber
thatsummarizestheintensityofevents.
Whyispredictingthesetypesofeventssoimportant?
BetterpredictionsofthepotentialforextremeclimateepisodeslikefloodsanddroughtscouldsavetheUnitedStates
billionsofdollarsindamagecosts.Predictingtheonsetofawarmorcoldphaseiscriticalinhelpingfarmersand
water,energy,andtransportationmanagersplanfor,avoid,ormitigatepotentiallosses.Advancesinimprovedclimate
predictionswillalsoresultinsignificantlyenhancedeconomicopportunities,particularlyforthenationalagriculture,
fishing,forestry,andenergysectors,aswellassocialbenefits.
HowdoscientistsdetectLaNiaandElNioandpredicttheirevolution?
ScientistsfromNOAAandotheragenciesuseavarietyoftoolsandtechniquestomonitorandforecastchangesinthe
PacificOceanandtheimpactofthosechangesonglobalweatherpatterns.InthetropicalPacificOcean,ElNiois
detectedbymanymethods,includingsatellites,mooredbuoys,driftingbuoys,sealevelanalysis,andexpendable
buoys.ManyoftheseoceanobservingsystemswerepartoftheTropicalOceanGlobalAtmosphere(TOGA)program,
andarenowevolvingintoanoperationalElNio/SouthernOscillation(ENSO)observingsystem.NOAAalsooperates
aresearchship,theKA'IMIMOANA,whichisdedicatedtoservicingtheTropicalAtmosphereOcean(TAO)buoy
networkcomponentoftheobservingsystem.Largecomputermodelsoftheglobaloceanandatmosphere,suchas
thoseattheNationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction,usedatafromtheENSOobservingsystemasinputto
predictElNio.OthermodelsareusedforElNioresearch,suchasthoseatNOAA'sGeophysicalFluidDynamics
Laboratory,attheCenterforOceanLandAtmosphereStudies,andotherresearchinstitutions.
Howareseasurfacetemperaturesmonitored?
SeasurfacetemperaturesinthetropicalPacificOceanaremonitoredwithdatabuoysandsatellites.NOAAoperatesa
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networkof70databuoysalongtheequatorialPacificthatprovideimportantdataaboutconditionsattheocean's
surface.ThedataiscomplementedandcalibratedwithsatellitedatacollectedbyNOAA'sPolarOrbiting
EnvironmentalSatellites,NASA'sTOPEX/POSEIDENsatellite,andothers.
Howarethedatabuoysusedtomonitoroceantemperatures?
ObservationsofconditionsinthetropicalPacificareessentialforthepredictionofshortterm(afewmonthstoone
year)climatevariations.Toprovidenecessarydata,NOAAoperatesanetworkofbuoysthatmeasuretemperature,
currents,andwindsintheequatorialband.Thesebuoystransmitdatathatareavailabletoresearchersandforecasters
aroundtheworldinrealtime.
UserContributions:
1
thomashendry
May2,2010@8:08am
TheinformationaboutElNinoandLaNInaisverylengthyandrequirescarefulandslow,patientanalysis.The
graphsareinterestinglydisplayedandincludeinterestinginfromation.However,Iamdisappointedinthatthere
isnoinformationastohoweitherofthesetwoeventsimpactonwinterweatherpatternsinGreeceandthewider
Balkanregion.Isthereanybodyouttherewhocanemailmeaboutthiswitheitherspecificinformationor
providemewithsomesomeusefulponiters?
Manythanks,
ProfessorTomHendry
33/36
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ProfessorTomHendry
2
khalid
Aug11,2010@7:19pm
whatistheeffectofelninototherainfalinthemideast?
3
Cheis
Aug7,2011@8:20pm
thiusisprettycoolitisalotofinformationandiwillreckomentthistoanyonewhoisdoingascienceprojectF
uckYous
4
manishbeniwal
Nov27,2011@3:03am
HOWCAMWEMITIGATESELNINOINFUTURE,WHYITCOMESPACIFIC,
5
evolution
Jan11,2012@8:20pm
howdowepreventelnioandlania?
howdoweneedtodopreventthem?
6
BeckyH.Culp
Jan25,2012@1:13pm
ForthecausesofElNinoandLaNinaandbetterpredictabilityIthinkyouneedtolookoutwardlyratherthan
inwardlytowhatishereonEarth.ByoutwardImean,patternscosmically.Anypatterns/cyclesonEarthare
causedbyotherheavenlybodies.Moon/tides.Earth'srevolutionofsun&tiltofaxis/seasons,etc.IEPatternsof
otherplanetsinrelationshiptoEarthsometimesitsreferredas"DanceofthePlanets"butthesealwaysfollowa
patternofyearsandconsequentlyhaveaneffectonEarthJupitersisona5+earthyr.pattern.Inthe"Danceof
thePlanets"whichtakesintoaccountthepatternsofthenakedeyeplanetsMercury,Venus,Mars,Jupiter,and
Saturnthispatternrepeatsevery15years.I'mnotanexpert,justanobservantlaypersonwithaninterestinthe
stars.Thequestionofthelinkbetweenvolcanicorearthquakeactivitywasalsoraised,thatalsocouldbe
explainedwiththistheory.Notonlyplanets,butcometsaswell.Anymovementofanyheavenlybodythatcomes
incloseproximityofEarth.Itsa"gravitationalpullthing".Isuggestconsultingsomeastronomyexpertsnotjust
meteorologyexperts.Funnytheycallthem"meteorologists".TheworkofStephenHawkinsisfascinating,buthis
workgoesfartherbeyondwhatI'mtheorizing.I'dappreciatearesponseplease...sincethisisonlyoneof23
seriouscommentsdatingbacktoMay09.Thankyou!Theaboveworkisveryextensiveandistobecommended.
7
sandy
Apr10,2013@7:19pm
Thissummaryhelpsmealotforasciencefairproject
:)
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:)
8
May23,2013@9:09am
amba
howweknowtheyearoflaninaandelninousingprecipitationdata?.Isthereanyformula?ifthereisaformulaI
wantit.whattherangevalueofprecipitationtoknowtheyearofElininoandlaninaliketepraturevalue
range(above+8laninayearandbelow8isyearofelnino).Butwhataboutpercipitation?
plseanswerthequestion.Thankyou
IamAmba.Departmentofmeteorologyandhydrologyinarbaminchuniversity,Ethiopia.
9
Sep7,2014@10:22pm
DorothyNixon
Thispagecontainsthefollowingsentence,whichcontainsameaningchangingtypo:
"Thispatterntypicallyoccursduringtheborealwinter(JuneAugust)"
JunetoAugustistheaustralwinter,nottheborealwinter.
TheborealwinterisDecembertoFebruary.
Commentaboutthisarticle,askquestions,oraddnewinformationaboutthistopic:
Name:
Email:
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PublicComment:(504000characters)
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