Bernstein LNG Sector Update January 2015

January 21, 2015
Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. (Senior Analyst) neil.beveridge@bernstein.com +852-2918-5741

Oswald Clint, Ph.D., ACA (Senior Analyst) oswald.clint@bernstein.com +44-207-170-5089
Bob Brackett, Ph.D. (Senior Analyst) bob.brackett@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4656
Lu Wang lu.wang@bernstein.com +852-2918-5723
Kevin Lian kevin.lian@bernstein.com +852-2918-5743
Global LNG: Texas Standoff. How Lower Oil Prices Impact Our
Outlook For the Global LNG Industry in 2015 and Beyond
Ticker
WPL.AU
STO.AU
OSH.AU
BG/.LN
RDS/A
RDSA.LN
RDSA.NA
RDS/B
RDSB.LN
RDSB.NA
BP
BP/.LN
FP.FP
TOT
1605.JP (Inpex)
IOC
SPX
MXAPJ
MSDLE15
MXJP
Rating
CUR
M
M
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
M
M
O
O
O
O
AUD
AUD
AUD
GBp
USD
GBp
EUR
USD
GBp
EUR
USD
GBp
EUR
USD
JPY
USD
19 Jan 2015
Closing
Price
34.17
7.54
7.49
852.50
64.39
2102.50
27.66
66.61
2167.50
28.62
37.86
413.35
43.30
50.91
1264.50
34.02
2019.42
467.24
1385.92
841.24
Target
Price
TTM
Rel.
Perf.
39.00
10.70
9.70
1510.00
83.00
2600.00
32.50
77.00
2400.00
32.50
41.00
410.00
51.00
64.22
1630.00
70.00
-14.9%
-50.3%
-11.0%
-0.7%
-1.9%
-1.6%
0.7%
-2.3%
-2.2%
1.1%
1.2%
1.3%
2.6%
1.4%
-5.4%
-42.8%
EPS
P/E
2013A
2014E
2015E
2013A
2014E
2015E
Yield
2.14
0.52
0.16
83.96
5.32
172.73
2.00
5.32
172.73
2.00
4.26
45.28
4.73
6.28
125.78
-0.83
108.28
32.96
87.14
51.12
3.40
0.57
0.39
66.00
7.82
234.00
2.89
7.38
221.00
2.89
4.00
40.00
4.19
5.66
121.00
6.99
116.04
35.34
89.75
55.40
2.09
0.50
0.43
71.00
8.90
278.00
3.48
6.66
214.00
3.48
3.67
39.00
4.47
5.55
88.00
-0.59
125.22
38.46
98.21
62.13
16.0
14.5
46.8
10.2
12.1
12.2
13.8
12.5
12.5
14.3
8.9
9.1
9.2
8.1
10.1
1.5
18.6
14.2
15.9
16.5
10.1
13.2
19.2
12.9
8.2
9.0
9.6
9.0
9.8
9.9
9.5
10.3
10.3
9.0
10.5
1.6
17.4
13.2
15.4
15.2
16.3
15.1
17.4
12.0
7.2
7.6
7.9
10.0
10.1
8.2
10.3
10.6
9.7
9.2
14.4
1.5
16.1
12.1
14.1
13.5
7.9%
4.0%
0.6%
2.2%
5.8%
5.4%
5.0%
5.6%
5.2%
4.9%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
6.5%
1.4%
NA
2.0%
3.1%
3.3%
1.9%
O Outperform, M Market-Perform, U Underperform, N Not Rated

* 1605.JP estimates are for financial years that end in March 2013, March 2014 and March 2015. European and US stock prices refer to close prices on April 01.
Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas
Highlights
The LNG industry is suffering from an anxiety attack over falling oil prices and uncertainty around global
growth. This will lead to stalled new investment in 2015, although we believe this will be temporary. We
remain confident in long term demand growth and see 90mtpa of new projects required to be sanctioned
over the next 5 years. In this note we examine how lower oil prices have impacted the global LNG industry
and our outlook for 2015 and beyond.
After 3 years of weak growth, global LNG demand will accelerate in 2015 to 9.8% on new supply
and lower prices which have dropped to US$9/mscf. LNG demand has been flat over the past 3 years.
Higher LNG prices (linked to oil) have slowed demand growth, especially in Europe; while a
combination of limited new supply and disruption to output from existing plants in the MENA region
have curtailed LNG output. We expect demand in 2015 to increase by 9.8% to 268mtpa as new LNG
projects start up and lower prices stimulate demand growth (as we are seeing this already in India and
ASEAN countries).
Commodity price volatility and increased capacity will however result in a sharp slowdown in new
long term contracts and investment in the industry. Over the next 2 years we expect over 60mtpa of
new supply growth as the wave of Australian LNG projects sanctioned in 2010/11 start up in what will be
the strongest ramp up in supply since the start-up of Qatar LNG in 2007/8. At the same time however, we
expect few new LNG projects to be sanctioned as volatility in commodity prices results in buyers and
sellers stalling on new long term LNG contracts. This will be negative for some of the service names.
See Disclosure Appendix of this report for important disclosures and analyst certifications.
January 21, 2015

Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. (Senior Analyst) neil.beveridge@bernstein.com
+852-2918-5741
Despite the slowdown in near term investments, we still see a need for 90mtpa of new LNG projects
to be sanctioned over the next 5 years to meet long term demand. We expect global LNG demand to
reach 355mtpa by 2020 and 440mtpa by 2025. Assuming capacity utilization of 90%, we need 490mpta
of capacity by 2025. Taking into account existing capacity and projects under construction (combined
400mtpa), we currently see a 90mtpa in supply by 2025. With construction time scales of 5 years, this
means 90mtpa of new projects sanctioned by 2020.
With the long term spread between oil and gas prices converging, the US is no longer as
competitive as it was. Spreads in gas price between Asian LNG and US gas have fallen by 50% from
US$12/mscf to US$6/mscf. With liquefaction and shipping costs of US$6.50/mscf, arbitrage margins are
now negative. While we still see scope for a few more US LNG projects, most of the proposed projects
will never be built. US LNG is only competitive in the Pacific basin, if long term gas prices are below
US$4/mscf and oil prices above US$80/bbl. This is counter to current long term strip prices for
Brent and Henry Hub which implies that the arbitrage opportunity is closed. As a result, we expect
buyers' appetite for US LNG to be diminished as they reappraise supply options in a lower oil price
environment.
While reduced spreads with US gas opens up opportunities for projects outside of the US, LNG
industry costs will have to be reduced significantly for new projects to compete successfully. Part of
this cost reduction will come from service industry deflation and part will come from relocation of
projects away from Australia and towards lower cost centers. Outside of the US, we expect continued
expansion in Papua New Guinea and the emergence of new centers in Canada and Mozambique over the
coming years assuming costs can be lowered to make projects globally competitive.
Within the LNG industry we favor Oil Search, InterOil and Inpex as some of the best ways to
invest in the LNG industry following the recent pull back in equity prices. While many of the LNG
stocks have been negatively impacted by the fall in commodity prices, we still see value within the sector
on long term prices of US$80/bbl. Oil Search continues to look well placed given the recent
announcement by Exxon on Train 3. InterOil, which is also exposed to PNG, looks attractive given the
Total timeline of a 2017 start up for Antelope LNG. While Inpex has been at the higher end of the cost
curve, we still see value in the stock which is well funded and could benefit from deflating service costs
as it reaches the peak of the construction cycle.
Investment Conclusion
LNG is a classically cyclical industry given the long timescales (5 years) from investment to supply. It is
not today's market which counts, but the market in 5 years' time, which matters for new investment
decisions. We are now in a 'classic cycle'. Supply is ramping as commodity price volatility and increased
anxiety over global growth create uncertainty in the minds of buyers and sellers. As a result we expect
investment in new LNG projects to slow down dramatically this year as decisions on long term contracts
are deferred. Long term demand for gas and LNG looks robust as ever to us however as the world shifts to
lower carbon fuels (helped by lower prices). We forecast that 90mtpa of new projects are required to be
sanctioned between now and 2020 to meet long term demand.
Where will these new projects come from? While US projects have been the most competitive relative to
international projects, the pendulum has swung the other way with long term oil prices now implying LNG
prices lower than what US LNG can deliver. For projects outside the US to move forward however, costs
need to come down. The international LNG industry will need to respond to lower oil prices by lowering
the cost of new projects from US$4000/t towards US$2000-US$3000/t to regain competitiveness. We
expect the industry to achieve this by relocating projects from high cost (Australia) to low cost regions,
better technology and through service industry deflation. Our top picks in global LNG are Oil Search,
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
InterOil (both exposed to lower cost Papua New Guinea) and Inpex where valuations look too low, even on
a long term price of US$80/bbl.
Details
LNG is a classically cyclical industry given the long investment timescales (5 years) from investment to
supply. Over the next 2 years we expect over 60mtpa of new supply growth as the wave of Australian LNG
projects sanctioned in 2010/11 start up in what will be the strongest ramp up in supply since the start-up of
Qatar LNG in 2007/8. At the same time however, we expect few new LNG projects to be sanctioned as
volatility in commodity prices results in buyers and sellers stalling on new long term LNG contracts, just as
it did in 2008/9.
Exhibit 1
Australian projects that reached FID in 2011 and 2012 will lead to a capacity surge in 2015 and 2016. We expect the
next FID cycle to begin in 2019.
50
45
40
35
mtpa
30
25
20
15
10
5
Liquifaction Capacity Additions
2020E
2019E
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
FID
Source: Bernstein estimates and analysis
This will not last however and the buyers cannot defer new investment decisions indefinitely. We expect
global LNG demand to reach 355mtpa by 2020 and 440mtpa by 2025. Assuming capacity utilization of
90%, we need 490mpta of capacity by 2025. Taking into account existing capacity and projects under
construction, we currently see a 90mtpa in supply be 20205. With construction time scales of 5 years, this
means 90mtpa of new projects sanctioned by 2020.
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
100
40%
80
30%
60
20%
40
10%
20
0%
-10%
(20)
-20%
90mtpa of new projects need to be

sanctioned by 2020 to meet longterm market demand in 2025
(40)
Spare Base Capacity
% of Global Demand
Spare Base Capacity (mmt)
Exhibit 2
Global LNG spare capacity based on projects in operation, under construction
-30%
% of Demand
2025E
2024E
2023E
2022E
2021E
2020E
2019E
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2013
2014E
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
-40%
1998
(60)
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis
Exhibit 3
To meet demand in 2025, it requires 490mtpa of liquefaction capacity in operation assuming a 90% utilization rate.
Base capacity can only provide 395mtpa, leaving a 92mtpa gap to be supplied from new projects
Global LNG Demand
2011
2012
2013
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
239
237
231
244
268
288
301
318
338
355
370
386
402
420
438
265
263
256
271
297
320
335
353
375
394
411
428
447
467
487
276
280
280
280
280
280
280
280
280
280
280
280
280
280
280
(10)
(12)
(18)
(24)
(26)
(27)
(27)
(27)
(28)
(30)
(31)
(33)
(34)
21
49
88
105
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
275
288
311
344
359
403
403
403
401
400
398
397
395
(19)
(17)
(14)
(24)
(25)
(50)
(28)
29
49
70
92
Assuming 90% Utilization Rate
Total Required Capacity
Total Base Capacity

Existing Capacity
Declines
(6)
(8)
In Construction Capacity (Cumulative)

Total Base Capacity
Capacity Gap (Surplus)
269
(4)
272
(9)
(9)
Where will these new projects come from? Falling oil prices have had a dramatic impact on LNG prices.
Given the close relationship between LNG prices and oil prices, we have seen LNG prices drop to
US$9/mscf. Given the lag between LNG prices and oil prices, it is possible that LNG prices could test
US$8/mscf.
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 4
High cost LNG project will be difficult to get sanctioned at US$60/bbl Brent
24.0
21.0
US$/mscf
18.0
15.0
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
Brent eqv price
Japan LNG Prices
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jan-01
Japan LNG Prices (SCB forecast)
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis and estimates
This creates a problem for the industry given the high fixed costs and prices required to generate an
investment return. Australian projects have been built for a triple digit oil price world. Projects such as
Gorgon and Wheatstone require a price of close to US$14/mscf (equivalent to US$100/bbl oil parity) to
make a marginal return on investment. While the long term oil price of US$70-US$80/bbl still implies long
term LNG prices of US$10-US$12/mscf, several of the projects currently under construction would never
have been built in the current oil price environment.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Adgas T1-2
Qatargas-4
Qatargas-4 (T7)
Arun
Atlantic LNG 1
Bontang
Qatargas-1
Atlantic LNG 2&3
Qatargas-3
Qatargas-2
Qatatrgas-3 (T6)
Qalhat LNG
Atlantic LNG 4
ELNG 1
Egypt - Damettia
Darwin LNG
Brunei LNG
Oman LNG
MLNG Satu
MLNG Tiga
Tangguh
Nigeria LNG
Darwin
MLNG Dua
Yemen LNG
Peru LNG
NWS T1-3
NWS T4
NWS T5
Angola LNG
NWS T1-3
Kenai
NWS T5
Snohvit
NWS T4
PNG LNG
QCLNG T1&T2
GLNG T1&T2
Sakhalin 2
Pluto T1
APLNG T1
Icthys T1&T2
Wheatstone T1&T2
Gorgon T1,2&3
FOB Price $/mscf (12% IRR)
Exhibit 5
Break-even price of global LNG projects assuming a 12% IRR
Source: Bernstein Estimates
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Given the number of projects competing for market, the economics of new frontier regions will matter
greatly in determining which projects go first. Our core belief is that the lowest cost projects generally get
developed first. Over the past decade, the cost of developing LNG projects has increased significantly. The
increase is similar to that of oil prices, which have increased 4-5 times over the past decade. Ten years ago,
the cost to develop an LNG project was around US$800-US$1000/ton. A new green-field LNG project in
Australia cost as much as US$4000/ton in the past two years (Exhibit 6). This is simply too high to be
competitive.
The international LNG industry will need to respond to lower oil prices by lowering the cost of new
projects from US$4000/t back towards US$2000-US$3000/t to regain competitiveness. We expect the
industry to achieve this by relocating projects from high cost (Australia) to low cost regions, technology
and through service industry deflation.
Exhibit 6
Oil Price vs. Marginal Cost of LNG Project (US$/ton)
120
4500
4000
100
3500
3000
2500
60
2000
40
Capex $/ton
Brent $/bbl
80
1500
1000
20
500
0
Series2
LNG Cost $/ton
Source: Company, Bernstein analysis and estimates
With the long term spread between oil and gas prices converging, the US is no longer as competitive as it
was. Spreads in gas price between Asian LNG and US gas have fallen by 50% from US$12/mscf to
US$6/mscf. With liquefaction and shipping costs of US$6.50/mscf, arbitrage margins are now negative.
While we still see scope for a few more US LNG projects, most of the proposed projects will never be built.
US LNG is only competitive in the Pacific basin, if long term gas prices are below US$4/mscf and oil
prices above US$80/bbl. This is counter to current long term strip prices for Brent and Henry Hub which
implies that the arbitrage opportunity is closed. As a result, we expect buyers' appetite for US LNG to be
diminished as they re-appraise supply options in a lower oil price environment.
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 7
Henry Hub-linked vs Oil-linked LNG pricing
14
12
The price of US LNG delivered to Asia will not be

competitive compared with oil linked LNG price at
US$80/bbl of oil price
0.6
US$/mmbtu
10
8
3.0
6
0.8
4
2
3.0
4.0
0
Henry Hub
Long term
procurement
Liquefication
Plant losses
Shipping via CGH
Source: Company report, Bernstein analysis
Overview of LNG Market in 2015
In the short to medium-term, we see downward pressure on prices as new projects start up in Australia and
Japan starts up its new nuclear facilities. Over the next couple years, we will see the start-up of eight major
LNG projects in Australia, which will add a further 60mtpa in global LNG capacity. We expect this will
lead to weaker spot market prices, which should revert to oil parity pricing and long-term contract prices.
While the re-start of nuclear reactors in Japan is an uncertainty, we see this event having a greater impact on
fuel oil demand than on LNG demand in the near to medium term given the limited number of reactors
which are likely to start up.
Longer term, the question is whether we are heading for a glut of LNG as a combination of new supply
from the US and new regions reaches the market. While buyers believe they are holding the upper hand in a
market, which appears increasingly gas long, we believe that they continue to overestimate new supply.
While four projects in the US have reached FID, progress in Mozambique and Canada is going slower than
expected. In addition to delays to new supply there are also problems with new supply as exemplified by
the problematic start-up and ramp-up of Angola LNG. In SE Asia, surging domestic demand is curtailing
the ability of exporters to export. The recent decision by Indonesia (one of the world largest producers) to
import LNG from the US highlights some of the shifts taking place in global LNG markets.
At the same time we see the possibility of demand being better than expected. Lower LNG prices should
stimulate demand. The recent tensions between Russia and the west over Crimea will only galvanize
European leaders' determination to diversify gas supply towards LNG over the long run. South America
was the fastest growing region for LNG demand last year (up 18%) which would have been hard to predict.
In the Middle East, the UAE (also an LNG exporter) has announced plans to create a new LNG import hub
at Fujairah as tensions with Qatar increase.
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
We remain positive on the outlook for global LNG as the world shifts to lower carbon cleaner fuels. We
project global demand will almost double over the next 10 years to over 430mtpa by 2025. In this note we
review events in the LNG market in 2014 and what investors can look forward to in 2015 and beyond.
Global LNG Demand
2014 was another year of limited growth in LNG market. Global LNG demand in the first nine months of
2014 came in at 174.5MT, 0.5% higher y-o-y (Exhibit 8).
Exhibit 8
Global LNG demand in the first nine months of 2014 came in at 174.5MT, 0.5% higher y-o-y
25
35%
20
25%
20%
15
15%
10%
10
5%
Y-o-Y Growth
Global LNG Demand (MT)
30%
0%
5
-5%
-10%
Global LNG Demand
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
Apr-08
-15%
Jan-08
Y-o-Y Growth
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis
Demand from Asia has been flattening off while European demand continues to decline (Exhibit 9).
Demand from Latin America strengthened with imports increasing by 10% y-o-y over the first nine months
of 2014 as lower rainfall caused a shift from hydro to gas for power generation.
January 21, 2015
+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 9
Y-o-Y demand growth 3 months rolling average demand from Asia and Japan flattening while European demand
continues to stay below the previous year
40%
30%
YoY growth rate
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Japan
Asia-Pac
Europe
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Oct-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
-50%
World
In the last twelve months through to September 2014, Japan's LNG demand increased by 3.8MT. Most of
the increase in Japan's LNG imports has been driven by the contracted imports from PNG LNG. Mexico's
LNG demand increased 2.5MT, which was the second largest increase in absolute terms (Exhibit 10). Lack
of pipeline capacity along with rising demand led Mexico to increase its LNG imports. Chinese imports
increased by 2.3MT.
3.8
2.3
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Italy
Greece
Portugal
Canada
Belgium
Chile
Turkey
Thailand
DomRepublic
Argentina
PuertoRico
Kuwait
Taiwan
India
Brazil
UK
China
(0.1) (0.5) (0.5)

(0.7) (0.9) (0.9)
(1.4) (1.4)
(2.2)
(2.9)
Spain
0.6
France
0.6
USA
1.1
Korea
2.5
Mexico
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Japan
Year-on-year Change (MT)
Exhibit 10
Change in imported LNG volumes for the last 12 months
The largest declines in LNG demand were from Europe as utilities substituted natural gas for coal. Over the
last twelve months, the Asia-Pacific market remained the largest regional market and primary driver of
global LNG demand growth on an absolute basis with demand growth of 6.0MT, which was a 4% increase
y-o-y (Exhibit 11). Middle East was the fastest growing region globally over the last twelve months,
achieving a growth rate of 19% y-o-y. Both North America and Latin America grew LNG imports by 8% y-
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
o-y. The European LNG market continued to experience a steep decline of 18% y-o-y as competition with
Asia pull cargoes out of the Atlantic basin and into Asia and utility company switched to coal.
Exhibit 11
Asia is the largest driver in global LNG growth while Europe experienced sharp declines
Europe
North America
8.0
31.2
0.6
-6.9
-18%
Asia
8%
Middle East
2.2
0.4
176.7
6.0
4%
19%
Latin America
14.6
1.0
8%
LTM Demand
(MT)
LTM Incremental
Demand (MT)
LTM Demand
Growth (%)
Volumes for last 12 month as of Sept 14
Source: Wikimedia Commons, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis
LNG Imports to Asia
Japan, Korea and now China are the three most important LNG consuming countries in the world with
demand continuing to grow (Exhibit 12). While Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been the engine of global
LNG demand, increasingly growth will come from other emerging markets in Asia such as China, India and
the ASEAN region. Despite the impressive growth over the past decade, per capita consumption levels of
natural gas are still remarkably low in many Asian countries. Rapid economic growth, industrialization,
demand for cleaner fuels and the slowing of nuclear post Fukushima all point towards natural gas as the fuel
of the future. Asia is shifting from being a net exporter of natural gas (principally through Indonesian and
Malaysian LNG) to being a net importer of gas. Of the emerging (non-OECD) Asian countries, China, India
and Thailand are already importing LNG and in the case of China, pipeline gas from Central Asia.
Singapore, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia will start importing LNG over the next few years.
10
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Japan
Korea
China
Taiwan
India
YoY Change
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
-30%
Apr-12
0
Oct-11
-20%
Jan-12
Jul-11
-10%
Apr-11
Jan-11
0%
Jul-10
Oct-10
10%
Apr-10
Oct-09
20%
Jan-10
10
Jul-09
30%
Apr-09
12
Jan-09
40%
Jul-08
14
Oct-08
50%
Apr-08
16
Jan-08
Imported Volume (MT)
Exhibit 12
Asian LNG imports grew by 2% y-o-y in the past twelve months through to September 2014
YoY Change
Japan LNG - What Will Happen As Nuclear Re-Starts
It has been almost four years since Fukushima left its mark on Japan. Since October 2013, nuclear power
generation has dropped to zero and currently none of the 50 reactors are in operation (Exhibit 13). We
expect this situation to change in the second half of 2015 however as Japan begins the nuclear re-start
process.
25
*Fukushima
20
15
Japan nuclear power plants

went offline in Oct 2013
10
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
5
Jan-10
Nuclear power in operation

(million kw)
Exhibit 13
The last two Japanese nuclear power plants also went offline in September 2013
Actual
11
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
As nuclear power remains offline, imports of LNG, oil and coal have all increased to compensate for the
loss in nuclear power. However, with likely restart of nuclear plants, Japanese LNG imports may come in
lower going forward while growth rates are already showing signs of leveling off (Exhibit 14).
YoY Change
40%
30%
*Fukushima
20%
10%
0%
-10%
YoY Change
Volume
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
-20%
-30%
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Volume (MT)
Exhibit 14
Japan LNG imports surged after the earthquake in March 2011 but the growth rate has begun to slow down
Within Japan, there are clear signs that growth has peaked out as we reach infrastructure capacity limits
(regas capacity, pipelines and gas-fired power plants). While there is a plan to add new regas capacity and
add a further 11GW of gas and coal fired power capacity, this will take several years to install. In addition
to the infrastructure bottlenecks, the import of significant amounts of fossil fuel is placing a significant
financial strain on Japan. Given the depreciation of the Yen, LNG prices are now well above their previous
peak levels, even higher than in 2008 when crude prices reached their peak of US$150/bbl (Exhibit 15).
20
1800
18
1600
16
1400
14
1200
12
1000
10
Cheaper Yen adds burden to
Japan LNG bill; LNG price close
to historical high in Yen term
800
600
400
8
6
4
200
Yen/mscf
Unit costs of Japan LNG imports

(US$/mscf)
2000
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Unit costs of Japan LNG imports

(Yen/mscf)
Exhibit 15
The cost of LNG imports in Yen surged strongly year to date, coming in ahead of LNG price in USD
US$/mscf
As a result, the balance of trade payments deficit has risen due to the increase in import costs of fossil fuels
(Exhibit 16). In 2010, Japan had a surplus balance of trade of JPY5.4tn, which turned to a record trade
deficit of JPY11.5tn in 2013. In the first ten months of 2014, Japan has encountered a trade deficit of
12
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
JPY11.2tn (up 27% y-o-y), which will clearly push the government into action to re-start nuclear power
sooner rather than later.
1000
100
90
Japan trade deficit
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
60
Jan-09
-1500
Jul-08
70
Oct-08
80
-1000
Apr-08
-500
USD:JPY
110
500
Jan-08
Trade deficit (Billion Yen)
Exhibit 16
The aggressive depreciation of Yen helped exports, but imports of fossil fuels expanded faster than exports value. As
a result, Japanese trade deficits widens 27% y-o-y in the first ten months of 2014
USD:JPY
Japan Ready to Hit the Re-start Button on Nuclear
While we have always considered it risky that Japan should rely so much on nuclear power given the
seismically active nature of the country, it does now seem inevitable that Japan will re-start some of its
reactors in 2015. For LNG investors, the question is how quickly will the reactors come back on line and
what will be the impact to LNG demand both near term and longer term.
Despite a pledge by the previous administration to phase out nuclear power over time, Shinzo Abe has
changed tack. At the start of 2014 following the re-election of Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Economy, Trade
and Industry Ministry (METI) released details of a new Energy Policy. The policy, which is in draft form
(currently with Cabinet for approval) calls for nuclear power to remain an important source of electricity for
Japan. According to reports, the draft Energy Policy refers to nuclear power as "important base-load
energy" but also states that Japan's nuclear energy dependency should be 'reduced as much as possible'.
Two reactors operated Kyushu Electric Power have received restart approval in November 2014 and are
likely to restart in early 2015. Looking into 2015, we see only a limited re-start of Japan's nuclear capacity.
Given the more stringent safety tests, it is likely that at most 50% of the reactors will pass today's more
stringent safety checks required for re-start. Japan has 54 reactors, of which 6 are now shut-down for ever
going through long term decommissioning, leaving a total of 48 reactors. Of these remaining reactors, there
are a number of problems with re-start:
-
10 of the country's 16 nuclear plants do not have an exclusion zone of 30km (the size of the
Fukushima exclusion zone)
Fukushima Daini Plant is within the Daiichi evacuation zone and faces large scale local opposition
to re-start
The Tsuruga plant west of Tokyo sits on an active fault and Chubu'a Hamaoka plant is located at
the intersection of 4 tectonic plates
Twelve reactors will reach or exceed the standard life expectancy in 40 years
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+852-2918-5741
Overall we see about 30% to 50% (at most) of Japan's reactors coming back on-line over the medium term
which means that at most we will see an 8-9MTPA reduction in LNG demand from the current peak levels
over the next few years.
We expect demand for LNG will remain high in 2014 and temporarily decline in 2015/16 as some nuclear
power plants come-on line and then will increase again towards the end of the decade as new supplies come
on line to levels which are similar to current. We expect that demand in 2020 will be close to current levels
at 89mtpa. Japan's contestable LNG market remains large given the incremental growth and the expiry of
long-term contract from Indonesia and Malaysia in 2016 through to 2018.
Exhibit 17
Japan LNG consumption in 2013 reached 87.8MT; we expect demand for LNG will remain high in 2014 before
temporarily declining in 2015/16
LNG Demand (mmtpa)
100
87.1 87.8
90
90.4 88.6
89.4
78.6
80
70.0
70
60
50
2020E
2019E
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
40
China LNG Imports Continue To Rise
Exhibit 18
Chinese LNG demand in the first nine months of 2014 came in came in at 15.07MT, up 10.8% y-o-y
Volume
3.0
YoY Change
250%
150%
2.0
100%
1.5
50%
1.0
0%
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
-100%
Jan-08
-50%
0.0
Mar-08
0.5
YoY Change
200%
2.5
Volume (MT)
China has become the third fastest growing LNG market in the world over the past 12 months in terms of
incremental volumes. China LNG imports in the first nine months of 2014 came in at 15.07MT, up 10.8%
y-o-y (Exhibit 18) as demand for clean fuels to combat pollution increased dramatically. Oil and coal
imports by comparison were substantially lower.
China's gas demand continues to be exceptionally strong and LNG infrastructure is growing rapidly
(Exhibit 19). We expect that China LNG imports by 2020 will be double the level of imports in 2014 given
the additional regas capacity, contracted volumes and continued pent-up demand (Exhibit 20).
14
January 21, 2015

Exhibit 19
China LNG terminals in operation and construction
Exhibit 20
We expect China LNG demand to be strong in the next 5
years
East Siberian
Gas \to China
West Siberian Gas

To China
+852-2918-5741
50
45
Turkmenistan Gas
To China
Beijing
Dalian
Tangshan
Qingdao
Jiangsu
Shanghai
Zhejiang
Gas Basin
Fujian
Pipeline
35
30
25
20
15
10
Guangdong
Planned Pipeline
LNG Terminal (approved)
LNG Terminal (pending)
China LNG Imports
40
Beihai
Shenzen
Hong Kong
Myanmar
Gas to China
Hainan
Source: Wikimedia commons, Bernstein analysis

Note: 2014 and beyond are Bernstein estimates
Regas capacity in China is being built out aggressively. We expect that regas capacity will increase from
33mtpa in 2013 to 51mtpa in 2015 and 63mtpa in 2016. Two regas terminals came on stream in 2014.
CNOOC's Hainan LNG receiving terminal received the first cargo of LNG imports in August 2014 and
Sinopec's Qingdao LNG receiving terminal has been put into trial operation in November 2014.
CNOOC's terminals in Shenzhen and East Guangdong are currently under construction and are expected to
start up in 2015. Sinopec is constructing regas terminals in Beihai and Tianjin, both of which are due to
completion in 2015. These four new LNG projects will add regas capacity of 12MTPA in 2015, bringing
total regas capacity to be 51MTPA in 2015 (Exhibit 21).
15
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 21
Chinese LNG import capacity is expected to reach 51MTPA by 2015
Capacity
Terminal
mtpa
Dapeng Phase 1
3.7
Putian Phase 1
2.6
Wuhaogou Phase 1
3.0
Dapeng Phase 2
3.0
Putian Phase 2
2.4
Ningbo Phase 1
3.0
Dalian
3.0
Rudong Phase 1
3.5
Tianjin Floating LNG
2.2
Zhuhai
3.0
Tangshan
3.5
Hainan Phase 1
3.0
Qingdao
3.0
Yuedong
3.0
Shenzhen
3.0
Beihai
3.0
Tianjin
3.0
Rudong Phase 2
3.0
Zhangzhou
3.0
Lianyungang
3.0
Shenzhen
3.5
Operating
Planned
Total Capacity (mtpa)
Total Capacity (bcm/yr)
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2011
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
Operator
CNOOC
CNOOC
CNOOC
CNOOC
CNOOC
CNOOC
PetroChina
PetroChina
CNOOC
CNOOC
PetroChina
CNOOC
Sinopec
CNOOC
CNOOC
Sinopec
Sinopec
Petrochina
CNOOC
Sinopec
PetroChina
Status
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Planned
Planned
Planned
Planned
Planned
Planned
Planned
Planned
2012
3.7
2.6
3.0
3.0
2.4
3.0
3.0
2013
3.7
2.6
3.0
3.0
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.2
3.0
3.5
2014
3.7
2.6
3.0
3.0
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.2
3.0
3.5
1.0
0.5
20.7
0.0
20.7
28.2
32.9
0.0
32.9
44.7
34.4
0.0
34.4
46.8
Capacity (mtpa)
2015E
2016E
2017E
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.4
2.4
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.5
38.9
38.9
38.9
12.0
24.5
24.5
50.9
63.4
63.4
69.2
86.2
86.2
2018E
3.7
2.6
3.0
3.0
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.2
3.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
38.9
24.5
63.4
86.2
2019E
3.7
2.6
3.0
3.0
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.2
3.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
38.9
24.5
63.4
86.2
2020E
3.7
2.6
3.0
3.0
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.2
3.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
38.9
24.5
63.4
86.2
Source: Companies, Bernstein analysis estimates
India LNG
Over the past few years, India has been increasing LNG imports to compensate for declining gas output
from the Dhirubhai field. With a continued decline in domestic gas production, Indian LNG imports have
increased 6.4% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014.
16
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 22
Indian LNG imports increased 6.4% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014 to compensate for declining domestic
production
4.0
LNG Volume (MT)
1.5
3.0
1.0
2.0
0.5
1.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
India gas production (MT)
2.0
India LNG imports
India gas production
The Government of India finally approved a revised formula for pricing almost all domestically produced
gas to $6.17/mmbtu on net calorific value with effect from 1st November 2014. Although the 47% rise in
gas prices from $4.2/mmbtu earlier is a major step towards market based pricing, it still remains inadequate
to kick start production offshore India, only region in India with meaningful gas reserves. Nonetheless,
inclusion of a premium for 'deep-water' gas portends to accommodative government policies, which should
ultimately make Indian E&P sector investable and increase domestic production offshore India over the
longer run. In the interim, however, we expect LNG imports to continue to increase to fill the gap between
domestic production and consumption. Additionally, the Modi government also deregulated diesel prices,
effectively rendering diesel uncompetitive against natural gas across various sectors. Moreover, with India's
acute focus on reducing oil subsidies, we expect demand for LNG will increase.
In lieu of rising gas demand across various sectors mainly fertilizers and CGD along with declining
domestic production, India plans to expand its total LNG import capacity to 63mtpa by FY19 from current
levels of 27.5 mtpa (Exhibit 23, Exhibit 25). While these are big expansions, there are major uncertainties
as to whether India will be able to achieve this ambitious target. Nonetheless, as domestic supply continues
to disappoint, six additional LNG terminals with total capacity of 28 mtpa are under various stages of
construction. We expect that LNG imports will increase more than twice from current levels to 35mtpa by
2020 (Exhibit 24), although we note that affordability along with hindrances to the development of gas
pipelines remains a major risk to our forecast.
17
January 21, 2015

Exhibit 23
Map of LNG Terminals in India
+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 24
We expect India LNG demand to be strong in the next 5
years due to the widening supply-demand gap
40
35
India LNG Imports
30
25
20
15
10
5
Source: Wikimedia Commons, company news, Bernstein analysis
Exhibit 25
India's LNG import capacity is expected to reach 63mtpa by FY19
Terminal
Capacity
mtpa
FY13
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
10.0
3.6
10.0
3.6
1.2
10.0
5.0
1.2
5.0
12.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
12.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
2.5
15.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
2.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
2.5
15.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
5.0
Operating
Under Construction and Planned
13.6
0.0
14.8
0.0
21.2
0.0
27.5
0.0
27.5
2.5
30.0
17.5
35.0
25.5
35.0
28.0
Total Capacity mtpa
13.6
14.8
21.2
27.5
30.0
47.5
60.5
63.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
5.0
Petronet LNG
Shell/Total
GAIL India
Petronet LNG
Shell / KSPL
GSPC
IOCL
APM Terminals
PetroNet
ONGC
Start Year Status
Capacity mtpa
FY14
FY15E
FY12
Dahej
Hazira
Dabhol
Kochi
Kakinada (FSRU)
Mundra
Ennore
Pipavav
Gangavaram
Mangalore
Operator
2004
2005
2013
2013
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Planned/Proposed
Planned/Proposed
Planned/Proposed
Planned/Proposed
Planned/Proposed
Planned/Proposed
Source: Company news and Bernstein analysis.
Rest of Asia Demand
Korean LNG imports declined 7.5% y-o-y to 27.26MT over the first nine months of 2014. Restart of some
nuclear power plants and mild temperatures have led to the slow-down in domestic gas demand (Exhibit
26). For Taiwan, LNG imports increased 5.7% y-o-y to 10.5MT over the first nine months of 2014 (Exhibit
27).
18
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
YoY Change
120%
90%
60%
30%
0%
YoY Change
Volume
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
-30%
-60%
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Volume (MT)
Exhibit 26
Korea LNG imports decreased 7.5% y-o-y to 27.26MT over the first nine months of 2014
YoY Change
90%
60%
30%
0%
-30%
YoY Change
Volume
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jul-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
-60%
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
Exhibit 27
Taiwan LNG imports increased 5.7% y-o-y to 10.5MT over the first nine months of 2014
European LNG Demand Declines
The European LNG market continues to decline as competition with Asia pulls cargoes out of the Atlantic
basin and into Asia. Demand for LNG in the first nine months of 2014 was 13% lower y-o-y (Exhibit 28)
with almost every country within the region (except UK and Turkey) importing lower volumes than the
year previously.
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+852-2918-5741
100%
80%
40%
20%
3
0%
YoY Change
60%
-20%
Spain
UK
France
Italy
Turkey
Portugal
Greece
YoY Change
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Jan-10
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
-60%
Jul-08
0
Oct-08
-40%
Apr-08
Jan-08
Exhibit 28
Europe LNG imports continued to be weak with imports declining 13% y-o-y in first nine months of 2014
Belgium
In the UK, demand for LNG increased 25% y-o-y over the first nine months of 2014 with North Sea gas
production continuing to decline (Exhibit 29).
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+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 29
UK LNG imports increased 25% y-o-y over the first nine months of 2014 with North Sea gas production continuing to
decline
5.0
4.5
Volume (MT)
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
0.0
UK LNG imports
UK North Sea Gas Production
In Europe's Mediterranean countries of Spain, France and Italy the drop off in LNG demand remains
pronounced (Exhibit 31, Exhibit 32, Exhibit 33) despite the stabilization of economic growth.
Exhibit 30
Spain LNG imports declined as economic conditions worsen
Volume
2.5
YoY Change
Volume (MT)
40%
1.5
20%
1.0
0%
-20%
0.5
YoY Change
60%
2.0
-40%
0.0
-60%
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
80%
21
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Volume
1.4
YoY Change
Volume (MT)
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
0.0
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
YoY Change
Exhibit 31
France LNG imports declined 29% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
Volume
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
YoY Change
200%
100%
50%
0%
YoY Change
150%
-50%
-100%
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Volume (MT)
Exhibit 32
Italy LNG imports weakened on the back of its economic conditions
North America LNG imports came in 3.9% higher y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014 owing to surging
demand in Mexico
North American LNG imports increased 3.9% to 5.88 million tons in the first nine months of 2014 (Exhibit
33). Despite the contraction in demand in the US and Canada, overall north American imports were
supported by surging demand in Mexico, which came in a significant 40% higher y-o-y in the first nine
months of 2014 and more than offset the weakness in the rest of North America.
22
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 33
North America LNG imports came in 3.9% higher y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014 on the back of higher demand
from Mexico
1.8
200%
1.6
150%
1.4
1.2
100%
1.0
50%
0.8
0.6
0%
0.4
-50%
0.2
Canada
Mexico
USA
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
Apr-08
-100%
Jan-08
0.0
YoY Change
Volume
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
YoY Change
150%
50%
0%
-50%
YoY Change
100%
-100%
-150%
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Volume (MT)
Exhibit 34
US LNG imports dropped with strong domestic supplies of gas
While the US declined, Mexican LNG imports surged 40% y-o-y to 4.66MT in the first nine months of
2014 (Exhibit 35). Rising gas demand combined with falling domestic production and limited pipeline
capacities have led to the surge of LNG imports in Mexico. Given likely increases in supply of gas from the
US to Mexico and pricing differential of US gas relative to LNG, the sustainability of this growth is less
clear.
23
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
YoY Change
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
YoY Change
Volume
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0%
-100%
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Volume (MT)
Exhibit 35
Mexico LNG imports surged 40% y-o-y to 4.66MT in the first nine months of 2014
South America LNG Imports Ramp Up
While LNG demand in Europe weakened, demand from Brazil and Puerto Rico strengthened in 2014 which
led combined Latin American imports increasing by 10% y-o-y over the first nine months of 2014 (Exhibit
36). Brazil LNG imports surged 25.2% y-o-y over the same period (Exhibit 38) as the main hydroelectric
reservoirs remained at low levels after a prolonged drought, which resulted in more LNG imports to
compensate for the hydroelectric shortfall. Elsewhere in the region, demand in Dominican Republic also
increased as demand for gas outpaced domestic supply volumes (Exhibit 37).
Exhibit 36
South America LNG imports increased 10% y-o-y over the first nine months of 2014
1.8
700%
1.6
600%
1.2
400%
1.0
300%
0.8
200%
0.6
YoY Change
500%
100%
0.4
Brazil
Argentina
Chile
DomRepublic
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
PuertoRico
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
-100%
Jan-09
0.0
Jul-08
0%
Apr-08
0.2
Jan-08
1.4
South Americas
24
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Volume (MT)
Volume
0.7
Volume
0.5
Volume
YoY Change
0.5
150%
0.4
100%
0.3
50%
0.2
0%
0.1
-50%
0.0
-100%
0.6
0.5
YoY Change
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
YoY Change
0.6
400%
0.4
300%
0.3
200%
0.2
100%
0.1
0%
0.0
-100%
YoY Change
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Volume (MT)
YoY Change
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Volume (MT)
January 21, 2015
+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 37
Argentina LNG imports were flat y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
200%
Exhibit 38
Imports by Brazil surged 25.2% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
YoY Change
500%
Exhibit 39
Chile LNG imports dropped by 1.6% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
25
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
LNG Exports
In the first nine months of 2014, global LNG supply essentially remained stable, up 0.4% Y-o-Y (Exhibit
40). Despite the start-up of 6.9 MTPA PNG LNG project, supply disruptions in Egypt largely offset the
increase from PNG LNG.
Exhibit 40
Y-o-Y supply growth 3 months rolling average
70%
YoY growth rate
50%
30%
10%
-10%
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Jun-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Africa
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Australia
Sep-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Mar-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Mar-07
-30%
World
26
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 41
LNG Export Volumes by Country Qatar contributes to majority of the incremental supply
25
35%
25%
20%
15
YoY Change
Exported Volume (MT)
30%
20
15%
10%
10
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Qatar
Malaysia
Indonesia
Australia
Nigeria
Trinidad
Algeria
Oman
UAE
Egypt
Brunei
Russia
Other
YoY Change
In the last twelve months (through September 2014), the decline in LNG exports from Egypt was the most
remarkable with a drop of 3.2mtpa (Exhibit 42), followed by Brunei with a decline of 1.5mtpa. PNG and
Nigeria offset this decline with an increase in LNG exports of 2.7mtpa and 1.7mtpa respectively. In our
view, it is only a matter of time before Indonesia and Malaysia become LNG importers in their own right as
gas production from mature fields continue to decline and domestic demand grows.
2.7
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
Trinidad
Oman
Eq. Guinea
Qatar
UAE
Spain
Belgium
Libya
Algeria
Yemen
Russia
USA
Malaysia
Angola
Peru
Indonesia
Australia
Norway
(0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.5) (0.5) (0.8)

(0.8)
(1.5)
(3.2)
Egypt
1.2
Brunei
1.7
Nigeria
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
PNG
Year-on-year Change (MT)
Exhibit 42
Change in exported LNG volumes (last 12 months)
27
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 43
West Africa contributed to the majority of incremental LNG exports
North Africa
12.0
Trinidad
13.0
-3.2
-21%
-0.8
Middle East
93.6
-1.3
-1%
Southeast Asia
47.3
-5%
West Africa
20.7
-0.5
-1%
1.2
Australia
6%
23.3
0.8
3.5%
LTM Supply
(MT)
LTM Incremental
Supply (MT)
LTM Supply
Growth (%)
Volumes for Sept 2014
Source: Wikimedia commons, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis
American LNG Exports
Total LNG exports from North America fell 2.3% y-o-y over the first nine months of 2014 to 10.3MT.
(Exhibit 44, Exhibit 45).
100%
1.8
80%
1.6
60%
1.4
40%
1.2
20%
1.0
0%
0.8
-20%
0.6
-40%
0.4
-60%
0.2
-80%
0.0
-100%
YoY Change
2.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Exhibit 44
Total LNG exports from North America came in 2.3% lower in the first nine months of 2014
USA
Trinidad
YoY change
28
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Volume
Volume (MT)
2.0
YoY change
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
1.5
1.0
0.5
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
0.0
YoY Change
Exhibit 45
Trinidad LNG exports fell 3.2% y-o-y in the first nine months
US LNG Exports How Many Will Be Built?
The outlook for US LNG exports remains perhaps one of the greatest uncertainties in the global LNG
market. While we still see scope for a few more US LNG projects, most of the proposed projects will never
be built. At present, there are 40 projects identified in the US and Canada for LNG export, which are
premised on the arbitrage between US gas prices and international gas prices (Exhibit 46). Total capacity in
the US is 278mtpa and in Canada is 103mtpa. The total capacity of these projects if they were all built
would be over 380mtpa, which would exceed current total global LNG demand by over 50%.
US LNG is only competitive in the Pacific basin, if long term gas prices are below US$4/mscf and oil
prices above US$80/bbl. This is counter to current long term strip prices for Brent at Henry Hub which
implies that the arbitrage opportunity is closed. As a result, we expect buyers' appetite for US LNG to be
diminished as they re-appraise supply options in a lower oil price environment.
29
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 46
North America LNG liquefaction projects
Capacity
Start
mtpa
bcf/d
Buyers
DOE App
FERC App
Cheniere
2012
2016
8.0
1.4
9.0
Approved
Approved
Lousiana
Cheniere
2014
2018
8.0
1.4
9.0
Approved
Approved
Cameron LNG
Lousiana
Sempra
2014
2018
12.0
1.7
12.0
Approved
Approved
Freeport
Texas
Freeport LNG
2014
2018
13.2
1.8
8.8
Approved
Approved
Cove Point
Maryland
Dominion Res.
2014
2018
7.2
0.8
2.3
Approved
Approved
Corpus Christi
Texas
Cheniere
2014
2018
13.5
2.1
0.0
Under-Review
Approved
Jordan Cove Energy
Oregon
Oregon LNG
2014
2018
6.0
0.9
0.0
Approved
To Be Approved
Lake Charles LNG
Lousiana
ETE, BG
2014
2018
15.0
2.0
0.0
Approved
To Be Approved
Astoria
Oregon
Oregon LNG
2015
2019
8.0
1.3
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Lavaca Bay
Texas
Excelerate
2015
2019
8.5
1.4
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Brownsville
Texas
Gulf Coast LNG
tba
tba
20.6
3.2
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Pascagoula
Mississippi
Gulf LNG
tba
tba
9.0
1.5
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Elba Island
Georgia
ETE
tba
tba
3.0
0.5
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Golden Pass
Lousiana
XOM
tba
tba
16.0
2.6
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Plaquemines Parish
Lousiana
CE FLNG
tba
tba
7.5
1.1
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Cameron Parish
Lousiana
Waller
tba
tba
1.2
0.2
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Ingleside
Texas
Pangea
tba
tba
8.4
1.1
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Alaska LNG
Alaska
XOM, BP, COP
tba
tba
15.0
3.0
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Gulf Coast LNG Export
Texas
Freeport
tba
tba
21.5
2.8
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
LNG Development Company
Oregon
LNG Development Company
tba
tba
9.4
1.2
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Southern LNG Company
Georgia
Southern LNG Company
tba
tba
3.8
0.5
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Excelerate Liquefaction Solutions
Texas
Excelerate
tba
tba
10.6
1.4
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
CE FLNG
Louisiana
Cambridge Energy Holdings
tba
tba
8.2
1.1
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
South Texas LNG Export
Texas
Pangea LNG Holdings
tba
tba
8.4
1.1
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Magnolia LNG
Louisiana
LNG Limited
tba
tba
4.1
0.5
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Gasfin Development USA
Louisiana
Gasfin Development USA
tba
tba
1.5
0.2
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Main Pass Products
Louisiana
McMoRan, United LNG
tba
tba
24.7
3.2
0.0
N/A
To Be Approved
Venture Global LNG
Louisiana
United LNG, LP, McMoran
tba
tba
5.1
0.7
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Advanced Energy Solutions
Florida
Advanced Energy Solutions
tba
tba
0.2
0.0
0.0
N/A
To Be Approved
Terminal
State
Developer
FID
Start
mtpa
bcf/d
Buyers
NEB App
Permitted
KM LNG
BC Canada
Various
2015
2018
5.5
0.2
3.6
Approved
To Be Approved
BC LNG
BC Canada
APA, CVX
2015
2018
5.5
1.3
3.6
Approved
To Be Approved
LNG Canada
BC Canada
RDS, PTR, KG, Mits.
2015
2020
12.0
3.2
12.0
Approved
To Be Approved
Pacific North West LNG
BC Canada
Petronas
2015
2019
12.0
2.7
0.0
Approved
To Be Approved
WCC LNG
BC Canada
XOM
tba
tba
15.0
4.0
0.0
Approved
To Be Approved
Ridley Island
BC Canada
BG
tba
tba
8.5
2.9
0.0
Approved
To Be Approved
Woodfibre LNG Export
BC Canada
Woodfibre Nat Gas
tba
tba
4.0
0.3
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Triton LNG
BC Canada
Triton Investment
tba
tba
4.0
0.3
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Goldboro LNG
NS Canada
Pieridae Energy
tba
tba
5.7
0.7
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Aurora LNG
BC Canada
Nexen
tba
tba
12.0
3.1
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Kitsault LNG
BC Canada
Kitsault Energy Ltd.
tba
tba
4.0
0.3
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
Canada Stewart Energy Group
BC Canada
Canada Stewart Energy
tba
tba
15.0
4.1
0.0
Under-Review
To Be Approved
277.6
40.7
41.1
DOE Approved
69.4
10.0
41.1
DOE + FERC Approved
48.4
7.1
41.1
103.2
23.1
19.2
NEB Approved
58.5
14.3
19.2
NEB Approved + Permittted
0.0
0.0
0.0
380.8
63.8
60.3
Export Approved
127.9
24.3
60.3
Export Approved & Permitted
48.4
7.1
41.1
State
Developer
Sabine Pass T1&2
Lousiana
Sabine Pass T3&4
Sub-Total US
Non-FTA
Capacity
FID
Terminal
Sub-Total Canada
Total North America
Source: Companies, DOE, FERC, Bernstein analysis
30
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 47
North America LNG liquefaction projects
mtpa
bcf/d
# Terminal
Sponsor
Capacity
Capacity
1 Sabine Pass
Cheniere
16.0
2.6
2 Freeport
Freeport
13.8
1.8
3 Lake Charles
ETE-BG
15.3
2.0
4 Cove Point
Dominion Res.
7.2
1.0
5 Coos Bay
Jordan Cove
6.0
0.9
6 Hackberry (Cam)
Sempra
12.0
1.7
7 Corpus Christi
Cheniere
13.5
1.8
8 Astoria
Oregon LNG
8.0
1.3
9 Lavaca Bay
Excelerate
8.5
1.4
10 Alaska LNG
XOM-BP-COP
15.0
3.0
11 Brownsville
Gulf Coast LNG
20.6
2.8
12 Pascagoula
Gulf LNG
9.0
1.5
13 Elba Island
ETE
3.0
0.5
14 Golden Pass
XOM
16.0
2.6
15 Plaquemines Parish
CE FLNG
7.5
1.1
16 Cameron Parish
Waller
1.2
0.2
17 Ingleside
Pangea
8.4
1.1
181.0
27.2
US
10
22
19
18
21
20
8
5
23
Total
Canada
18 Kitimat
APA, CVX
5.5
0.7
19 BC LNG
Var.
1.8
0.3
20 LNG Canada
RDS
12.0
1.8
21 Prince Rupert
Petronas
8.5
1.0
22 Ridley Island
BG
8.5
1.0
36.3
4.8
Total
9 6
3
12
2
7
15
20
16
11 14
13
Source: Wikimedia Commons, Bernstein analysis
We expect only a fraction of the projects which have been proposed will be built in the US. Specifically we
expect that only 5 terminals will be built in the US (although these could have large expansion
possibilities). To build a liquefaction plant three things are required: approvals, customers and capital. The
first factor which will limit the number for projects which get developed is the approvals process.
Approval for LNG is a two stage process requiring both DOE approval to export to non-FTA countries
(which are the most important in terms of LNG demand) and FERC approval which is essentially the permit
to construct the facility and takes into account local issues relating to health, safety and the environment. So
far, six terminals have been approved for export to non-FTA counties. So far, only five projects (Sabine
Pass, Cameron, Freeport, Cove Point, Corpus Christi) have received FERC approval. FERC approval is
much more difficult to achieve than DOE approval to export to non-FTA countries. DOE approval to export
to non-FTA countries is essentially a political process. There is a possibility that this could change with
legislation proposed in Congress to change export approvals to WTO member countries rather than nonFTA counties, which would open up the list of countries to most major LNG buyers.
FERC approval is much harder to obtain than DOE approval. Given the environment and technical studies
required, the cost to obtain FERC approval can be as much as US$50-US$100MM. This automatically
limits the number of companies willing to risk capital to go through the process (which typically takes up to
two years to complete). Outside of five projects which already received FERC approval, there seem to be
few other projects with the exception of Golden Pass, which have the partnerships and funding look capable
of navigating the FERC process.
The second factor is customers. Ultimately, buyers will have a major role in determining which projects
will go ahead and which will not. The sale and purchase of LNG involves a small number of companies,
31
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
usually the super-majors, national oil companies and large European and Asian utilities. Typically, small
companies who are not part of this 'club' find it difficult to break in. After all an LNG contract can be a 20
year agreement which requires companies to take a long term view of their counterparties, and usually
means that only companies which have long standing relationships and experience will qualify Another
factor is how much 'Henry Hub price linked LNG' buyers actually want. As we have highlighted in previous
section, we do not believe the landed price of long term US LNG will be significantly lower than long term
oil linked contract prices
On top of this, there is concern over the volatility over Henry Hub. From our discussions with Japanese and
Korean utilities, we believe that Asian buyers want 20% of their portfolio on Henry Hub. This would imply
50mtpa by 2020 and 60mtpa by 2025, which is substantially smaller than the 350mtpa of capacity currently
being proposed by project developers. Japan has been a lead mover in the trend underpinning projects in
Cameron, Freeport and Cove Point with all the major Japanese utility companies involved (Exhibit 48).
While US LNG will be price competitive with Asian LNG, it will not be dramatically cheaper as some
expect.
Exhibit 48
North America LNG liquefaction projects contracts
Terminal
Sabine Pass
Buyer
BG
Gas Natural
Kogas
Gail
Total
Centrica
Country
Portfolio
Portfolio
South Korea
India
MTPA
5.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
2.0
1.8
Start
2016
2016
2017
2017
Duration
20
20
20
20
20
20
Hackberry (Cam)
Misubishi
Mitsui
GDF Suez
Japan
Japan
Portfolio
4.0
4.0
4.0
2017
2017
2017
20
20
20
Tolling Agreement (Prov.)

Freeport
Osaka Gas & Chubu

BP
Toshiba Corporation
SK E&S LNG
Japan
Portfolio
Japan
South Korea
4.4
4.4
2.2
2.2
2018
2018
20
20
20
20

Cove Point
Sumitomo
Tokyo Gas
Gail
Japan
Japan
India
1.15
1.15
2.60
2017
2017
20
20
20

Kitimat
Kogas
Gas Natural
Korea
Portfolio
2.0
1.6
2018
2018
20
20
MOU
MOU
LNG Canada
Shell
Kogas
Mitsuibishi
Petrochina
Portfolio
Korea
Japan
China
4.8
2.4
2.4
2.4
2020
2020
2020
2020
20
20
20
20
Sales & Purchase

Sales & Purchase
Sales & Purchase
Sales & Purchase
Total US
Total Canada
Grand Total
UK
Contract Type
Tolling Agreement
Tolling Agreement
Tolling Agreement
Tolling Agreement
49.9
15.6
65.5
Source: Companies, Bernstein analysis
The third factor influencing supply is the capital requirements required for any LNG off-take scheme.
LNG projects are multi-billion dollar investment and can only be under-taken by super-majors or
companies, which have the explicit backing of well-funded utilities. While it is conceivable that some
project sponsors could bypass the need to sign long term binding off-take agreements, the high capital
requirements of these projects make it unlikely that any company, other than the super-majors would be
32
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
able to make this investment. In other words, ultimately the market (through binding long-term agreements)
will decide how much LNG ultimately will be developed.
Africa LNG Exports
LNG exports from Africa in the first nine months of 2014 totaled 24.9mtpa, which was up 0.5% Y-o-Y
(Exhibit 49). Supplies from Egypt (Exhibit 50) experienced a sharp decline of 90% y-o-y in the first nine
months of 2014. Angola LNG had a problematic start-up and ramp-up with only two months of effective
exports in 2014 (Exhibit 55).
Exhibit 49
Africa LNG exports came in 0.5% higher y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
5
50%
40%
30%
20%
3
10%
0%
-10%
YoY Change
-20%
1
-30%
-40%
Algeria
Egypt
Eq. Guinea
Libya
Nigeria
Angola
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Jan-11
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Jan-09
Jul-08
Apr-08
-50%
Jan-08
YoY change
Exhibit 50
Algeria LNG exports increased 6.4% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
YoY change
60%
40%
2.0
20%
1.5
0%
1.0
-20%
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
Mar-08
-60%
May-08
-40%
0.0
Jan-08
0.5
YoY Change
Volume
2.5
Volume (MT)
33
Jan-08
Sep-14
0.8
0.6
30%
0%
0.4
-30%
0.2
-60%
-90%
0.0
-120%
YoY change
0.5
0.4
0.3
100%
50%
0.2
0%
0.1
-50%
-100%
0.0
-150%
YoY change
0.1
0.0
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
-150%
YoY Change
1.0
YoY Change
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
YoY change
YoY Change
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Volume
Nov-11
Volume
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-08
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
Volume
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
0.2
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
0.6
Mar-11
Jan-08
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
1.2
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
January 21, 2015
+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 51
Egypt LNG exports experienced a sharp decline of 90% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
90%
60%
Exhibit 52
Exports from Equatorial Guinea decreased 21.2% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
200%
150%
Exhibit 53
Libya LNG exports completely stopped since March 2011 due to the political situation
34
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 54
Nigeria LNG exports increased by 18.5% y-o-y in first nine months of 2014
Volume
YoY change
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Sep-13
Sep-13
May-13
May-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Sep-12
Sep-12
May-12
May-12
Jul-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jan-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
-60%
Jul-08
-10%
0.0
Sep-08
40%
0.5
May-08
90%
1.0
Jan-08
140%
1.5
YoY Change
190%
2.0
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
2.5
Exhibit 55
Angola LNG only exported LNG for 2 months in 2014
Volume
0.3
Volume (MT)
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
0.0
A recurring feature of the LNG market is the arbitrage in pricing which has resulted in un-contracted
cargoes in Africa being diverted to the Asia-Pacific region taking advantage of higher global LNG prices.
Last year, African LNG exports to Asia continued to rise as exports to Europe dropped although recent
points suggest a reversal in that trend (Exhibit 56). This trade continues to be stimulated by the premium
between Asian gas prices and European prices. African LNG exports to Asia accounted for 48% of total
African LNG exports in the first nine months of 2014, while the price differential averaged US$8/mmbtu
over the same period (Exhibit 57).
35
January 21, 2015

Exhibit 57
Africa exports to Asia as of total (exports to Asia and to
Europe) vs price spread
12
3.5
10
3.0
50%
2.5
US$/mmbtu
2.0
1.5
1.0
40%
4
2
30%
20%
-2
-4
0.5
10%
-6
0.0
Export to Europe
Jul-14
Dec-13
May-13
Oct-12
Mar-12
Jan-11
Aug-11
Jun-10
Nov-09
Apr-09
Sep-08
Jul-07
Feb-08
Dec-06
-8
Export to Asia
0%
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Volume (MT)
60%
Exports to Asia as % of total
Exhibit 56
Africa export to Asia is catching up to that to Europe
+852-2918-5741
Japan-NBP
to Asia % of total
Europe and Russia LNG Exports Heading Higher
Exports from Europe and Russia increased 4.9% y-o-y to 9.5MT in the first nine months of 2014 (Exhibit
58). Norwegian LNG exports increased 42.9% y-o-y (Exhibit 59) while LNG exports from Russia were up
2.8% y-o-y in the first three quarters of 2014 (Exhibit 60).
36
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 58
Exports from European countries and Russia increased 4.9% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
2.0
200%
1.8
150%
1.4
100%
YoY Change
1.6
1.2
1.0
50%
0.8
0%
0.6
0.4
-50%
0.2
Norway
Russia
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
Apr-08
-100%
Jan-08
0.0
YoY change
YoY change
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
YoY Change
Volume
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-100%
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
Mar-08
May-08
-200%
Jan-08
Volume (MT)
Exhibit 59
Norway LNG exports increased 42.9% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
37
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 60
Russia LNG exports increased 2.8% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
Volume
1.2
YoY change
300%
150%
0.6
100%
0.4
50%
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
-50%
May-08
0%
0.0
Jan-08
0.2
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
200%
0.8
YoY Change
250%
1.0
Middle East LNG Exports Trending Lower
LNG exports from Middle East fell 3.3% y-o-y to 70.45MT in the first nine months of 2014 (Exhibit 61) as
Qatar exports declined by 1MT, while exports from Oman and Yemen also fell, down 12.1% y-o-y and
14.7% y-o-y respectively over the first nine months of 2014 (Exhibit 62 and Exhibit 65).
10
80%
70%
60%
40%
30%
20%
10%
YoY Change
50%
0%
Qatar
Oman
Yemen
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Abu Dhabi
Jan-11
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
-30%
Jan-09
0
Oct-08
-20%
Jul-08
-10%
1
Apr-08
Jan-08
Exhibit 61
Middle East LNG exports decreased by 3.3% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
YoY change
38
Jan-08
Sep-14
0.6
YoY change
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Exhibit 64
Oman LNG exports went down by 12.1% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
YoY change
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
YoY Change
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
80%
60%
40%
20%
YoY Change
YoY change
90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
-50%
YoY Change
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Volume
Nov-11
Volume
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-08
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
Volume
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
1.2
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
0.7
Mar-11
Jan-08
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
January 21, 2015
+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 62
Qatar LNG exports were down 1.7% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
120%
100%
0%
-20%
Exhibit 63
Abu Dhabi LNG exports were up 1.7% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
39
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
YoY Change
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
YoY Change
Volume
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Volume (MT)
Exhibit 65
Yemen LNG exports declined by 14.7% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
Trade flows in Middle East sourced LNG exports exhibit the same trend as Africa's LNG exports (Exhibit
66). Higher Asian LNG prices resulted in the Middle East (ex. Qatar) sending 80% of its LNG exports to
Asia in the first nine months of 2014 (Exhibit 67) and increasingly less supply into Europe to take
advantage of the pricing arbitrage which exists.
Exhibit 67
Middle East exports to Asia as of total (exports to Asia
and exports to Europe) vs price spread
12.0
8.0
10.0
7.0
8.0
US$/mmbtu
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
70%
0.0
60%
-2.0
-6.0
0.0
-8.0
50%
40%
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
-4.0
80%
4.0
1.0
Export to Asia
90%
6.0
2.0
Export to Europe
100%
9.0
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Volume (MT)
Exhibit 66
Middle East export to Asia has always been much higher
than to Europe
Japan-NBP
More Qatari export volumes have been supplied to Asia to take advantage of higher LNG prices in the
region. Qatar exports to Asia increased by 0.79 million tons in the first nine months of 2014 compared with
the same period in 2013 (Exhibit 69). In contrast, Qatar exports to Europe decreased 0.47 MT y-o-y over
the first nine months of 2014 (Exhibit 68).
40
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
3.5
500%
3.0
400%
Volume (MT)
2.5
300%
2.0
200%
1.5
100%
1.0
Spain
UK
Italy
Belgium
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Other Europe
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Jan-09
-100%
Jul-08
0.0
Apr-08
0%
Jan-08
0.5
YoY Change
Exhibit 68
Qatari exports to Europe dropped as the country ships more cargoes to Asian buyers
YoY Change
7.0
100%
6.0
80%
Volume (MT)
60%
4.0
40%
3.0
20%
2.0
Japan
Korea
India
China
Taiwan
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
-20%
Jan-09
0.0
Jul-08
0%
Apr-08
1.0
Jan-08
5.0
YoY Change
Exhibit 69
Qatari exports to Asia continued to grow with an increase of 0.79 million tons in the first nine months of 2014
YoY Change
Asia Pacific LNG Exports
LNG exports from the Asia-Pacific region increased 4.7% (Y-o-Y) to 55mtpa in the first nine months of
2014 (Exhibit 70). The growth in Asia Pacific LNG exports is mainly driven by the earlier start-up and
ramp-up of PNG LNG. PNG LNG has reached full capacity in late July (Exhibit 75). Over the same period,
41
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Malaysian LNG exports decreased 0.6% Y-o-Y to 18mtpa while Indonesia export volumes decreased by
0.7% Y-o-Y. Australian LNG exports increased by 6.8% Y-o-Y in the first nine months of 2014 (Exhibit
71 to Exhibit 74).
8.0
30%
7.0
25%
15%
5.0
10%
4.0
5%
3.0
0%
-5%
2.0
YoY Change
20%
6.0
-10%
Australia
Brunei
Malaysia
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
PNG
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Indonesia
Jan-12
Jul-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Jan-11
Jul-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Jan-10
Jul-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
-20%
Jan-09
Jul-08
-15%
Apr-08
1.0
Jan-08
Exhibit 70
Asia Pacific LNG exports increased 4.7% Y-o-Y in the first nine months of 2014 thanks to the start-up of PNG LNG
YoY change
Exhibit 71
In the first nine months of 2014, Indonesia LNG exports volume decreased 0.7% y-o-y
Volume
2.5
YoY change
60%
0%
1.0
-20%
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
-60%
May-08
-40%
0.0
Jan-08
0.5
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
20%
1.5
YoY Change
40%
2.0
42
Jan-08
Sep-14
2.5
2.0
1.5
10%
1.0
-10%
0.5
-30%
0.0
-50%
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
150%
130%
110%
90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
-50%
YoY change
2.5
2.0
60%
1.5
1.0
40%
20%
0.5
0%
-20%
0.0
-40%
YoY Change
30%
YoY Change
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
YoY change
YoY Change
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Volume
Nov-11
Volume
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
Volume
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
3.0
Mar-11
Jan-08
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
3.0
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Volume (MT)
January 21, 2015
+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 72
Malaysia LNG exports declined 0.6% y-o-y at 18.16 million tons in the first nine months of 2014
50%
Exhibit 73
Brunei LNG exports were down 21.5% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
YoY change
Exhibit 74
Australia LNG exports volumes increased 6.8% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014
100%
80%
43
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 75
PNG LNG has reached full capacity in July 2014
Volume
0.6
Volume (MT)
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
0.0
Global LNG Utilization Rate
LNG markets are becoming less tight, as reflected in the fall in spot prices. Global LNG capacity
(excluding Indonesia, Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria) utilization fell from close to 100% to below 90% in the
second half of 2014 as new supply reached the market (Exhibit 76).
Exhibit 76
World (ex. Indonesia, Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria) liquefaction capacity utilization averaged 94% in the first nine
months of 2014
100%
Global capacity utilization
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
Capacity utilization
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
50%
Apr-08
55%
Jan-08
95%
Quarterly average
Utilization in Qatar averaged 98% in the first nine months of 2014 highlighting little room for incremental
growth (Exhibit 79). Utilization in Egypt remains low, due to political unrest and shortfall in gas input to
LNG plants (Exhibit 78). Indonesia also continues to show low utilization rates (averaging 50% in the first
nine months of 2014) as mature LNG plants at Arun ends and Bontang continues to see declining output.
Indeed, Pertamina plans to convert the Arun LNG plant into a regasification terminal to serve the domestic
market with its last ever export order to Japan in October.
44
40%
20%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
60%
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
80%
Egypt capacity utilization
100%
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Algeria capacity utilization

120%
Yemen capacity utilization
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Qatar capacity utilization
Exhibit 77
Capacity utilization Algeria
Nigeria capacity utilization
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Trinidad capacity utilization
January 21, 2015

Exhibit 79
Capacity utilization Qatar
Exhibit 80
Capacity utilization Yemen

Exhibit 81
Capacity utilization Trinidad
Exhibit 82
Capacity utilization Nigeria
+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 78
Capacity utilization Egypt
110%
90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
45
January 21, 2015

Exhibit 84
Capacity utilization Malaysia
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Malaysia capacity utilization
120%
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Indonesia capacity utilization
Exhibit 83
Capacity utilization Indonesia
+852-2918-5741
LNG Pricing The Arbitrage Will Close
The shale revolution in North America has led to a decoupling of oil-linked LNG prices in Asia with gas
prices in North America (Exhibit 86). This is about to change. Although US gas prices have dropped to
US$3/mscf, LNG prices in Asia have now dropped to US$9/mscf with the fall in oil prices. This implies
that the spread between HH and Japan LNG prices will fall by 50% from US$12/mscf to US$6/mscf.
Exhibit 85
Global gas prices remain at record spreads
18
Natural gas price ($/mcf)
14
12
10
8
6
UK NBP
Euro Spot
US Spot
Gazprom LTC
Norwegian Oil-Linked
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
2
May-05
16
Japan LNG Price
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein Analysis
46
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 86
Japan gas prices relative to US and UK: the price premium of Asian markets over the US and UK markets
remains high
16
US$/mmbtu
12
8
4
0
-4
NBP - HH
Japan - HH
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
-8
Japan - NBP
Spot prices for LNG in China have weakened considerably (Exhibit 87). Towards the end of November,
prices declined to US$9/mscf for delivery in February 2015. Part of this reduction is a result of falling oil
prices and partly due to mild weather over NE Asia plus lower utilization levels within the industry.
47
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 87
LNG spot price
21
China Spot Price $/mscf
19
17
15
13
11
9
1-Jul
8-Jul
15-Jul
22-Jul
5-Aug
12-Aug
2-Sep
16-Sep
7-Oct
14-Oct
21-Oct
28-Oct
4-Nov
11-Nov
18-Nov
25-Nov
2-Dec
9-Dec
16-Dec
23-Dec
30-Dec
10-Mar
31-Mar
20-Jun
5-May
10-Jun
30-Jun
10-Jul
30-Jul
25-Aug
15-Sep
27-Oct
10-Nov
24-Nov
8-Dec
Long-Term Supply/Demand Outlook
Over the next couple years, the increase in supply (mostly from Australia) (Exhibit 89) will result in a reacceleration of demand growth as supply becomes available (80% of global LNG demand is still on long
term contracted supply). We see strong demand growth continuing from Asia as it shifts to lower carbon
fuels and estimate global demand of ~355mtpa by 2020 (Exhibit 88). By 2025 we forecast global LNG
demand of ~440mtpa.
48
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 88
Global LNG demand is set to grow at 6.3% CAGR through to 2020 and then increase at a slower rate of 4.3% CAGR
between 2020 and 2025
500
4.3% CAGR (2020-2025)
450
400
6.3% CAGR (2013-2020)

LNG demand
contracted
in 2012
and 2013
350
mtpa
300
250
200
150
100
50
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Latin America
2025E
2024E
2023E
2022E
2021E
2020E
2019E
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2013
2014E
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Middle East
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates
Over the next 2 years we expect over 60mtpa of new supply growth as the wave of Australian LNG projects
sanctioned in 2010/11 start up in what will be the strongest ramp up in supply since the start-up of Qatar
LNG in 2007/8.
Exhibit 89
Global liquefaction capacity installed by year liquefaction capacity growth is set to accelerate in the next 3 years
35
30
25
mtpa
20
15
10
5
Existing
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
1999
40
In Construction
Source: Bernstein estimates and analysis
49
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Taking our demand forecast and projects, which are in operation and under construction, we can calculate
the change in spare capacity over time for the industry (Exhibit 90). To meet long-term demand of 440mtpa
by 2025, requires 490mtpa of liquefaction capacity in operation assuming a 90% utilization rate. Current
projects in operation and under construction can only provide liquefaction capacity of 400mtpa by 2020,
leaving a 90mtpa gap to be supplied from new projects (Exhibit 91). Assuming that it takes 4-5 years to
build a LNG facility, it implies that we need 90mtpa of new LNG sanctioned before 2020 to meet global
demand needs in 2025.
100
40%
80
30%
60
20%
40
10%
20
0%
-10%
(20)
-20%
90mtpa of new projects need to be

sanctioned by 2020 to meet longterm market demand in 2025
(40)
Spare Base Capacity
% of Global Demand
Spare Base Capacity (mmt)
Exhibit 90
Global LNG spare capacity based on projects in operation, under construction
-30%
% of Demand
2025E
2024E
2023E
2022E
2021E
2020E
2019E
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2013
2014E
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
-40%
1998
(60)
50
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 91
Start-up schedule of under construction LNG projects by 2020
2011
2012
2013
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
275.6
279.9
279.9
279.9
Angola LNG
2.6
2.6
Skikda Rebuild
2.3
2.3
Existing Projects
267.8
279.9
279.9
279.9
279.9
279.9
279.9
Under Construction & Approved
Gassi Touil (Arzew)
4.0
PNG LNG T1&T2
6.9
Sengkang LNG
2.0
QCLNG T1&T2
8.5
Donggi-Senoro LNG
2.0
Gorgon T1-T3
7.5
GLNG T1
3.9
APLNG T1&T2
3.4
Kanowit
1.2
7.5
5.6
GLNG T2
3.9
Prelude T1
3.6
Wheatstone T1&T2
8.9
Sabine Pass T1&T2
9.0
Ichthys T1&T2
8.4
Sabine Pass T3&T4
9.0
Yamal LNG
11.0
Cameron LNG T1 & T2
12.0
Freeport LNG T1 & T2
13.0
Cove Point
7.2
Rotan FLNG
1.5
Total
0.0
0.0
4.9
15.8
28.5
38.5
17.4
44.7
0.0
0.0
Cumulative
0.0
0.0
4.9
20.6
49.1
87.6
105.0
149.7
149.7
149.7
Declines
(6.3)
(2.0)
(1.6)
(2.4)
(5.3)
(6.1)
(2.0)
(1.2)
0.0
0.0
Cumulative
(6.3)
(8.3)
(9.9)
(12.3)
(17.6)
(23.7)
(25.6)
(26.8)
(26.8)
(26.8)
288.2
311.5
343.9
359.3
402.9
402.9
402.9
Total Base Capacity
269.4
271.7
274.9
Source: Bernstein estimates
With a long queue of US LNG projects, plus emerging LNG centers in Canada, Mozambique the Eastern
Mediterranean and Russia, there is no shortage of possible projects, which could be developed to meet this
demand need. We have identified a list of probable projects that are most likely to reach FID between now
and 2020 with combined capacity of 93mtpa (Exhibit 92). While this is not an exact science, we believe
that a high proportion of the next wave of projects to be developed will come from this list.
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January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 92
List of probable LNG projects which have not yet reached FID
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Total Base Capacity
Probable
Tangguh T3 LNG
Corpus Christi
Lake Charles
PNG LNG T3
LNG Canada
Mozambique LNG
Abadi LNG
Elk Antelope T1 & T2
Browse FLNG
Wheatstone T3
Kitimat LNG
Prince Rupert
Mozambique T3
Tanzania
Total
Cumulative
359.3
402.9
402.9
402.9
401.4
399.9
398.4
396.9
395.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.8
12.8
13.3
26.1
8.0
34.1
21.5
55.6
13.5
69.1
13.5
82.6
10.0
10.0
92.6
Total Base & Probable Capacity
359.3
402.9
415.7
429.0
435.5
455.5
467.5
479.5
488.0
3.8
9.0
10.0
3.3
8.0
10.0
4.5
7.0
4.0
4.0
5.5
8.5
5.0
Source: Companies, Bernstein analysis and estimates
Exhibit 93
Projects and date of FID approval/production in the next 5 years
Projects/Year
2013
Angola LNG
Start of Production Skikda Rebuild
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Gassi Touil (Arzew)
Donggi-Senoro LNG
GLNG T2
Ichthys T1&T2
Yamal LNG
PNG LNG T1&T2
Gorgon T1-T3
Prelude T1
Sabine Pass T3&T4
Cameron LNG T1 & T2
QC LNG (Dec 29 2014)
GLNG T1
Wheatstone T1&T2
APLNG T1&T2
Sabine Pass T1&T2
Cove Point
Kanowit
Rotan FLNG
Sengkang LNG
FID approval and

start of
Construction
Yamal LNG
Cameron LNG T1 & T2
Tangguh T3 LNG
Lake Charles
PNG LNG T3
Abadi LNG
Sabine Pass T3&T4
Corpus Christi
LNG Canada
Mozambique LNG
Antelope T1 & T2
Cove Point LNG
Longer term, the question is whether we are heading for a glut of LNG as a combination of new supply
from the US and new regions reaches the market. While buyers believe they are holding the upper hand in a
market, which appears increasingly gas long, we believe that they continue to overestimate new supply.
While four projects in the US have reached FID, progress in Mozambique and Canada is going slower than
expected. In addition to delays to new supply there are also problems with new supply as exemplified by
the problematic start-up and ramp-up of Angola LNG. In SE Asia, surging domestic demand is curtailing
the ability of exporters to export. The recent decision by Indonesia (one of the world largest producers) to
import LNG from the US highlights some of the shifts taking place in global LNG markets.
52
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+852-2918-5741
At the same time we see the possibility of demand being better than expected. Lower LNG prices should
stimulate demand. The recent tensions between Russia and the west over Crimea will only galvanize
European leaders' determination to diversify gas supply towards LNG over the long run. South America
was the fastest growing region for LNG demand last year (up 18%) which would have been hard to predict.
In the Middle East, the UAE (also an LNG exporter) has announced plans to create a new LNG import hub
at Fujairah as tensions with Qatar increase.
We remain positive on the outlook for global LNG and continue to believe that prices will remain firm (oil
linked) and demand growth will continue. We project global demand will almost double over the next 10
years. While buyers may feel they have the upper hand they cannot delay investment decisions indefinitely
and will have to return to the table for new long term contracts.
Exhibit 94
Global LNG spare capacity based on projects in operation, under construction and probable projects
Peak in spare capacity on Qatar LNG wave,

financial crisis and US shale gas boom
80
35%
Next glut of LNG expected in

2020 depending on
2017-18 project approvals
30%
LNG markets will

continue to tighten
through to 2015
60
25%
20%
15%
40
10%
% of Global Demand
Spare Export Capacity (mmt)
100
20
5%
Spare Capacity
2025E
2024E
2023E
2022E
2021E
2020E
2019E
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2013
2014E
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0%
1998
% of Demand
Global Supply and Demand Summary
Our summary of global supply and demand is shown in the tables below. We expect that global LNG
demand will reach 355mtpa by 2020 and 440mtpa by 2025 (Exhibit 95).
53
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 95
Global LNG supply/demand balance by 2025
Global LNG Demand by Country
(million tons per annum)
2010
2011
2012
2013
1.7
4.2
8.6
2.1
3.1
6.5
1.4
3.4
3.3
0.7
5.0
2.0
0.4
7.0
1.0
0.4
9.5
1.0
0.4
9.7
1.0
0.4
10.0
1.0
0.4
10.3
0.9
0.4
10.6
0.9
0.4
11.0
0.9
0.4
11.3
0.9
0.4
11.6
0.9
0.4
12.0
0.9
0.4
12.3
0.8
0.4
12.7
0.8
14.5
11.6
8.1
7.7
8.4
10.8
11.1
11.4
11.7
12.0
12.3
12.6
12.9
13.2
13.6
13.9
Latin America
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Dom. Republic
Puerto Rico
1.5
2.3
2.5
0.7
0.8
3.3
0.9
3.0
0.6
0.5
3.4
2.8
3.1
1.0
1.0
4.2
4.0
3.0
0.9
1.1
4.2
5.1
3.0
1.0
1.4
4.6
5.6
3.2
1.0
1.5
4.9
6.1
3.5
1.0
1.5
5.3
6.7
3.8
1.0
1.6
5.7
7.4
4.1
1.1
1.6
6.2
8.1
4.4
1.1
1.7
6.7
9.0
4.8
1.1
1.7
7.0
9.9
5.0
1.1
1.8
7.4
10.8
5.3
1.1
1.9
7.8
11.9
5.5
1.2
1.9
8.1
13.1
5.8
1.2
2.0
8.6
14.4
6.1
1.2
2.0
Sub-Total
7.8
8.2
11.3
13.3
14.7
15.8
17.1
18.5
20.0
21.5
23.3
24.8
26.5
28.3
30.2
32.3
Europe
Belgium
France
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Turkey
UK
4.3
10.7
0.6
6.5
0.0
2.3
20.9
5.0
13.7
4.3
10.7
0.9
6.2
0.0
2.1
17.1
4.2
18.3
2.0
7.8
0.9
4.9
0.0
1.8
14.5
5.7
10.6
1.3
6.2
1.1
3.9
0.0
1.6
9.4
3.8
6.9
0.8
4.4
0.3
2.9
0.0
1.0
7.6
4.3
8.6
0.9
4.8
0.3
3.2
0.0
1.1
8.2
4.7
9.4
1.0
5.2
0.3
3.5
0.0
1.2
8.9
5.1
10.2
1.0
5.7
0.4
3.8
0.0
1.3
9.7
5.6
11.1
1.1
6.2
0.4
4.1
0.0
1.4
10.6
6.0
12.0
1.2
6.7
0.4
4.5
0.0
1.6
11.5
6.6
13.1
1.3
7.3
0.5
4.8
0.0
1.7
12.4
7.1
14.2
1.4
7.9
0.5
5.3
0.0
1.8
13.5
7.7
15.4
1.6
8.6
0.5
5.7
0.0
2.0
14.6
8.4
16.7
1.7
9.3
0.6
6.2
0.0
2.1
15.9
9.1
18.1
1.8
10.1
0.6
6.7
0.0
2.3
17.2
9.9
19.6
2.0
10.9
0.7
7.3
0.0
2.5
18.7
10.7
21.3
Sub-Total
64.1
63.8
48.3
34.2
30.0
32.6
35.4
38.5
41.8
45.4
49.3
53.5
58.1
63.0
68.4
74.2
Middle East
Kuwait
UAE
Israel
Pakistan
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.7
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.9
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.9
0.0
0.0
2.3
1.5
1.5
0.0
2.5
1.5
1.5
3.0
2.8
3.0
1.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
1.5
3.0
3.3
3.0
1.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
1.5
3.0
3.8
3.0
1.5
3.0
4.0
3.0
1.5
3.0
4.3
3.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
3.0
4.8
3.0
1.5
3.0
5.0
3.0
1.5
3.0
Sub-Total
0.7
2.9
3.0
2.7
5.3
8.5
10.3
10.5
10.8
11.0
11.3
11.5
11.8
12.0
12.3
12.5
9.9
8.8
70.0
32.6
11.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
12.2
12.1
78.6
36.7
12.0
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
14.7
14.4
87.1
36.3
12.7
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
18.6
12.1
87.8
40.2
12.8
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
20.7
13.3
90.4
37.2
13.5
3.5
1.3
2.0
3.5
28.7
14.6
88.6
38.7
14.1
4.5
4.0
3.0
3.5
38.4
16.8
85.9
40.3
14.8
6.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
38.4
20.2
86.8
41.9
15.6
6.0
5.0
5.0
3.5
40.8
24.2
87.7
43.6
16.4
6.0
5.5
6.0
3.5
45.3
29.0
88.5
45.3
17.2
6.0
6.0
7.0
3.5
45.3
34.8
89.4
47.1
18.1
6.0
6.5
8.0
3.5
47.5
36.6
90.3
49.0
19.0
6.0
6.5
8.5
4.0
49.9
38.4
91.2
51.0
19.9
6.0
6.5
9.0
4.5
52.4
40.3
92.1
53.0
20.9
6.0
6.5
9.5
5.0
55.0
42.3
93.1
55.1
21.9
6.0
6.5
10.0
5.5
57.8
44.5
94.0
57.3
23.0
6.0
6.5
10.5
6.0
Sub-Total
132.9
152.3
166.2
172.7
185.4
199.7
214.3
222.4
233.6
247.8
258.7
267.4
276.4
285.8
295.5
305.6
Global Demand
Global Demand Growth
220.0 238.9 236.8 230.7 243.7 267.5 288.2 301.2 317.8 337.8 354.8 369.8 385.6 402.3 419.9 438.5
20.5% 8.6% -0.9% -2.6% 5.7% 9.8% 7.7% 4.5% 5.5% 6.3% 5.0% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4%
North America
Canada
Mexico
USA
Sub-Total
Asia Pacific
China
India
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
Singapore
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
54
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+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 96
Global LNG export capacity by 2025
Global LNG Export by Country 2002-2020E
(million tons per annum)
North America
Canada
USA
2010
2011
2012
0.5
0.1
0.3
14.1
12.7
11.2
6.6
3.5
0.3
18.2
6.2
4.0
0.1
18.8
5.1
3.6
19.8
19.6
6.6
23.5
22.8
18.9
7.1
21.4
24.3
3.0
9.8
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2020E 2020E 2020E 2020E 2020E
1.5
1.5
1.5
10.5
19.5
51.7
60.7
70.7
8.0
70.7
8.0
70.7
13.5
70.7
22.0
70.7
22.0
70.7
13.1
2.6
5.7
3.4
19.7
-
16.9
5.2
5.7
3.4
19.7
-
16.9
5.2
5.7
3.4
19.7
-
16.9
5.2
5.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
-
21.1
5.2
7.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
-
21.1
5.2
7.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
-
21.1
5.2
7.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
-
21.1
5.2
7.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
-
21.1
5.2
7.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
-
21.1
5.2
7.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
9.0
21.1
5.2
7.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
9.0
21.1
5.2
7.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
13.5
21.1
5.2
7.7
3.4
0.3
19.7
13.5
20.6
6.7
18.1
23.4
24.1
6.7
16.4
23.5
24.1
6.7
14.8
22.8
6.8
47.4
6.7
15.3
21.6
6.8
76.9
6.7
13.7
17.4
6.8
85.3
6.7
12.8
16.3
6.8
85.3
6.7
12.0
17.4
6.8
85.3
6.7
14.3
17.2
6.8
85.3
6.7
14.1
17.0
10.0
85.3
6.7
13.2
16.4
10.0
85.3
6.7
15.2
15.8
16.9
93.3
6.7
14.3
15.1
16.9
93.3
6.7
13.5
14.5
16.9
93.3
6.7
12.7
13.9
16.9
2.9
10.4
3.1
10.9
3.2
10.6
3.2
10.6
3.2
10.6
3.2
10.6
3.2
10.6
3.2
22.7
3.2
22.7
3.2
22.7
3.2
22.7
3.2
22.7
3.2
22.7
3.2
22.7
3.2
22.7
8.2
56.1
8.4
74.2
8.2
76.1
6.0
4.0
5.6
6.3
5.5
4.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
4.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
4.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
4.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
4.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
5.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
5.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
5.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
5.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
5.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
5.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
5.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
5.7
8.8
77.1
5.7
5.7
Rest of World
Peru
Trinidad
1.3
15.5
3.4
13.0
3.7
14.6
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
3.8
14.8
Total Global Supply
16.8
237.7
235.4
245.5
256.3
278.8
311.8
334.4
378.9
390.1
402.9
409.4
426.6
438.6
450.2
448.8
Africa
Algeria
Angola
Egypt
Eq. Guinea
Libya
Nigeria
Mozambique
Asia Pacific
Australia
Brunei
Indonesia
Malaysia
PNG
Europe
Norway
Russia
Middle East
Oman
Qatar
Israel
UAE
Yemen
55
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Exhibit 97
Global Regas Capacity Operating and Under Construction By Country
Total Capacity by Country
Argentina
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
Dom. Republic
France
Greece
India
Indonesia
Italy
Israel
Japan
Korea
Kuwait
Malaysia
Mexico
Netherlands
Pakistan
Poland
Portugal
Puerto Rico
Singapore
Spain
Sweden
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
UAE
UK
USA
2013
8.3
6.6
5.6
9.0
4.0
34.3
2.0
20.4
3.9
22.5
4.5
15.6
1.9
192.8
77.7
3.8
3.8
15.2
6.5
6.5
0.0
5.0
0.7
3.0
54.0
0.4
10.4
5.0
8.7
2.8
39.3
131.1
2014E
8.3
6.6
10.9
12.7
7.8
42.3
2.0
23.4
3.9
27.0
6.5
15.6
1.9
197.8
77.7
3.8
3.8
15.2
6.5
6.5
3.6
5.0
0.7
5.5
54.0
0.4
10.4
5.0
8.7
2.8
39.3
131.1
2015E
8.3
6.6
10.9
12.7
8.9
51.3
2.0
23.4
3.9
27.0
6.5
25.5
1.9
205.1
84.5
3.8
3.8
15.2
6.5
6.5
3.6
5.0
0.7
5.5
54.0
0.4
10.4
5.0
8.7
2.8
39.3
131.1
2016E
8.3
6.6
10.9
12.7
8.9
51.3
2.0
23.4
3.9
37.0
6.5
25.5
1.9
205.1
84.5
3.8
3.8
15.2
6.5
6.5
3.6
5.0
0.7
5.5
54.0
0.4
10.4
5.0
8.7
2.8
39.3
131.1
2017E
8.3
6.6
10.9
12.7
8.9
57.3
2.0
23.4
3.9
47.0
6.5
25.5
1.9
205.1
84.5
3.8
3.8
15.2
6.5
6.5
3.6
5.0
0.7
5.5
54.0
0.4
10.4
5.0
8.7
2.8
39.3
131.1
2018E
8.3
6.6
10.9
12.7
8.9
60.3
2.0
23.4
3.9
47.0
6.5
25.5
1.9
205.1
84.5
3.8
3.8
15.2
6.5
6.5
3.6
5.0
0.7
5.5
54.0
0.4
10.4
5.0
8.7
2.8
39.3
131.1
2019E
8.3
6.6
10.9
12.7
8.9
60.3
2.0
23.4
3.9
47.0
6.5
25.5
1.9
205.1
84.5
3.8
3.8
15.2
6.5
6.5
3.6
5.0
0.7
5.5
54.0
0.4
10.4
5.0
8.7
2.8
39.3
131.1
2020E
8.3
6.6
10.9
12.7
8.9
60.3
2.0
23.4
3.9
47.0
6.5
25.5
1.9
210.1
84.5
3.8
3.8
15.2
6.5
6.5
3.6
5.0
0.7
5.5
54.0
0.4
10.4
5.0
8.7
2.8
39.3
131.1
Total Capacity
705.3
746.6
780.8
790.8
806.8
809.8
809.8
814.8
56
January 21, 2015

+852-2918-5741
Disclosure Appendix
Valuation Methodology
For Santos, Oil Search, Woodside, Inpex and InterOil, we believe an NAV approach is appropriate given
a significant portion of their values are attached to future LNG projects. In calculating the NAV, we have
assumed a long term oil price of $90 (real).
European Oil & Gas
Our target prices for the European Integrated Oils are calculated by applying our estimates for 2015
cashflow per share (CFPS) to a forward price-to-cashflow (P/CF) multiple. This P/CF multiple is generated
through the relationship, and historically strong correlation, between 12 month forward P/CF multiples and
Return on Average Capital Employed (ROACE) within the Integrated Oils group. Our calculation utilizes
this relationship and an estimated long term, through the cycle ROACE to generate the target P/CF
multiple. The price calculations for the Integrateds are summarized above. We use $80/bbl Brent for 2015
and $90/bbl Brent in 2016.
Risks
Risks to energy and commodity stocks include economic conditions and commodity price swings. If the
global, US or Chinese economies turn down significantly, global demand growth for commodities could
decelerate, putting pressure on prices and thus on the cash flow of producers.
57
SRO REQUIRED DISCLOSURES
References to "Bernstein" relate to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong)
Limited , and Sanford C. Bernstein (business registration number 53193989L), a unit of AllianceBernstein (Singapore)
Ltd. which is a licensed entity under the Securities and Futures Act and registered with Company Registration No. 199703364C,
collectively.
Bernstein analysts are compensated based on aggregate contributions to the research franchise as measured by account penetration,
productivity and proactivity of investment ideas. No analysts are compensated based on performance in, or contributions to, generating
investment banking revenues.
Bernstein rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 6-12 months versus the S&P 500 for stocks listed on the
U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the MSCI Pan Europe Index for stocks listed on the European exchanges (except for Russian
companies), versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index for Russian companies and stocks listed on emerging markets exchanges outside
of the Asia Pacific region, and versus the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan) exchanges - unless
otherwise specified. We have three categories of ratings:
Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead.
Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp in the year ahead.
Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp in the year ahead.
Not Rated: The stock Rating, Target Price and estimates (if any) have been suspended temporarily.
As of 01/19/2015, Bernstein's ratings were distributed as follows: Outperform - 46.9% (2.1% banking clients) ; Market-Perform - 41.6%
(1.6% banking clients); Underperform - 11.6% (0.0% banking clients); Not Rated - 0.0% (0.0% banking clients). The numbers in
parentheses represent the percentage of companies in each category to whom Bernstein provided investment banking services within the
last twelve (12) months.
Neil Beveridge maintains a long position in BP PLC (BP).
Accounts over which Bernstein and/or their affiliates exercise investment discretion own more than 1% of the outstanding common stock of
the following companies BG/.LN / BG Group PLC, RDSA.LN / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSA.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.LN /
Royal Dutch Shell PLC, RDSB.NA / Royal Dutch Shell PLC.
The following companies are or during the past twelve (12) months were clients of Bernstein, which provided non-investment bankingsecurities related services and received compensation for such services BP / BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC.
An affiliate of Bernstein received compensation for non-investment banking-securities related services from the following companies BP /
BP PLC, BP/.LN / BP PLC.
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also write to either: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC, Director of Compliance, 1345 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10105 or
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12-Month Rating History as of 01/19/2015

Ticker
Rating Changes
1605.JP
BG/.LN
BP
BP/.LN
FP.FP
IOC
OSH.AU
RDS/A
RDS/B
RDSA.LN
RDSA.NA
RDSB.LN
RDSB.NA
STO.AU
TOT
WPL.AU
O (RC) 02/18/14
O (IC) 01/22/09
M (IC) 08/03/10
M (IC) 08/03/10
O (IC) 08/03/10
O (IC) 08/14/14
O (IC) 06/29/09
O (RC) 09/30/14
O (RC) 09/30/14
O (RC) 09/30/14
O (RC) 09/30/14
O (RC) 09/30/14
O (RC) 09/30/14
M (RC) 04/20/11
O (IC) 08/03/10
M (RC) 05/29/14
M (IC) 06/13/13
M (RC) 03/09/12
M (RC) 03/09/12
M (RC) 03/09/12
M (RC) 03/09/12
M (RC) 03/09/12
M (RC) 03/09/12
O (RC) 01/08/13
Rating Guide: O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, N - Not Rated

Rating Actions: IC - Initiated Coverage, DC - Dropped Coverage, RC - Rating Change
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Bernstein LNG Sector Update January 2015

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Bernstein LNG Sector Update January 2015

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January 21, 2015

Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. (Senior Analyst) neil.beveridge@bernstein.com +852-2918-5741

O Outperform, M Market-Perform, U Underperform, N Not Rated

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

January 21, 2015

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

January 21, 2015

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

Liquifaction Capacity Additions

Source: Bernstein estimates and analysis

January 21, 2015

90mtpa of new projects need to be

Spare Base Capacity (mmt)

Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis

Global LNG Demand

Assuming 90% Utilization Rate

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

Total Required Capacity

Total Base Capacity

In Construction Capacity (Cumulative)

Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis

January 21, 2015

Brent eqv price

Japan LNG Prices

Japan LNG Prices (SCB forecast)

Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis and estimates

FOB Price $/mscf (12% IRR)

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

Source: Bernstein Estimates

January 21, 2015

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

LNG Cost $/ton

Source: Company, Bernstein analysis and estimates

January 21, 2015

The price of US LNG delivered to Asia will not be

Shipping via CGH

Source: Company report, Bernstein analysis

Overview of LNG Market in 2015

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

January 21, 2015

Global LNG Demand (MT)

Global LNG Demand

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis

January 21, 2015

Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. (Senior Analyst) neil.beveridge@bernstein.com

YoY growth rate

Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis

(0.1) (0.5) (0.5)

Year-on-year Change (MT)

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis

January 21, 2015

Volumes for last 12 month as of Sept 14

Source: Wikimedia Commons, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas

LNG Imports to Asia

January 21, 2015

Imported Volume (MT)

Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis

Japan LNG - What Will Happen As Nuclear Re-Starts

Japan nuclear power plants

Nuclear power in operation

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas