Opening Bell

Todays Highlights

Market Outlook
Lower-than-expected CPI and better-than-expected IIP data
underscores the expectation of an overall improvement in the
economic health of the economy. The improving trend in data prints
bodes well for the medium term outlook for the equity markets.
Markets Yesterday
Domestic markets came off their fresh record highs to end the
session with marginal gains as investors turned cautious ahead of
October consumer price inflation and the September index of
industrial production data that was released after market hours
US markets closed mixed on account of profit booking and news of
major fines levied against several large banks for currency market
manipulation

Results: Tata Power, Sun Pharma, Cipla, SCI,

Bajaj Electricals, Hindalco, United Spirits, NBCC,
SAIL, MRPL, IOC, HPCL, Gujarat Gas, Ashoka
Index Movement (past one month)
8600

30000

8400
8200

29000
28000

8000
7800

27000
26000

7600

25000

Key Developments

BSE (RHS)

IIP for September 2014 recorded growth of 2.5% YoY ahead of Street
expectations as mining, manufacturing and electricity output
increased 0.7%, 2.5% and 3.9% YoY, respectively. Under the use
based category, capital goods output increased 11.6% with healthy
growth in transformers and cable, rubber and insulated production.
Basic goods and Intermediate goods production increased 5.1% and
1.8% YoY, respectively. However, production of consumer goods
declined 4% YoY due to 11.3% YoY dip in production of consumer
durables. Cumulative growth for H1FY14 was 2.8% YoY
JLR retail volumes for October came ~2% YoY lower at 33,512 units,
with Land Rover volumes down 1% to 28,149 units and Jaguar
volumes lower by 7% to 5363 units.
HPCLs Q2FY15 revenues are expected to increase 14.8% YoY on
account of higher sales volume. Refining margins are expected at
$0.8/bbl vs. $3.9/bbl YoY mainly due to a decline in global margins
and inventory loss on account of a decline in Brent crude prices
Hindalco is expected to report total aluminium metal sales at ~190
KT and copper metal sales at ~98 KT. The EBITDA margin is
expected to increase 88 bps QoQ to 10.2%

Sensex
Nifty

NSE (LHS)

Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)

28,009 27,910
0.4
0.5
32.3
17.8
8,383
8,383
0.0
0.7
33.0
17.7

Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)

CY12
127,034
-55,612

CY13 YTD CY14 Yesterday Last 5 Days

112,221
93,017
459
5,468
-74,125
-33,798
-559
-2,788

World Indices Monthly performance

Nikkei
17,242
12.4%
Shanghai
2,491
5.1%

Nasdaq
4,675
9.3%
Germany
9,211
4.8%

NSE
8,383
6.7%
U.K.
6,611
4.3%

BSE
28,009
6.5%
France
4,180
2.6%

Dow Jones
17,612
6.5%
Kospi
1,962
1.4%

Nifty Heat Map

Axis Bank

481.2
3.1%

Ambuja
Cement

229.5

ICICI
Bank

1,708.0

Bank of
Baroda

1.8%
1.3%

United
Spirits

2,724.5

Kotak
Bank

1,126.4

IDFC

911.8
0.4%

SBI

PNB

953.7
0.0%

BPCL

Tech M.

2,620.5
-0.4%

RIL

HCL Tech
NTPC

1.7%
157.0
1.3%

1,018.8
3,439.7
Dr Reddy
0.7%
0.6%

HDFC
Bank

NMDC

3.1%

156.1
-0.6%
1,600.5
-0.9%
142.2
-2.5%

ITC

765.3
-0.2%
974.1
-0.4%
272.1

Sesa
Sterlite

241.8

-0.6%

140.1
2.4%
369.5
1.5%

Bajaj
Auto

2,599.6

Hero
Moto

1,142.7
2,967.4
HDFC Ltd
1.5%
1.3%

2.0%

Tata
Motors

531.9
1.9%

Indusind
Bank

727.7

Bharti
Airtel

387.3
0.6%

Grasim
Ind

3,635.6
0.6%

TCS

345.9
0.1%

ACC

1,514.1
0.1%

Hindalco

151.3
0.0%

Wipro

556.1
-0.2%

HUL

770.0
-0.3%

ONGC

393.7
-0.3%

Infosys

4,106.0
-0.5%

Lupin

2,746.1
Coal India
0.2%

Cairn
India

Tata Steel

DLF

Asian
Paints

1.0%

644.0
-0.8%
906.1

-1.0%

Sun
Pharma

468.4
-2.5%

Tata
power

91.1
-2.7%

-1.2%

Maruti

Ultratech
JSPL
Cipla

3,359.8
0.9%

1,422.9
-0.5%
2,624.6
-0.8%
153.3
-1.4%
618.3
-2.9%

BHEL

M&M
GAIL
L&T
Power
Grid

247.5
0.9%
2,591.8
0.4%

1,253.6
-0.6%
485.6
-0.9%
1,613.5
-1.4%
143.0
-3.2%

Markets Today
Close Previous Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

PDF created with pdfFactory Pro trial version www.pdffactory.com

25,615
34,802
80.1
6747

25,790
34,746
80.4
6756.5

-0.7
0.2
-0.4
-0.1

-0.3
-2.3
-6.7
-0.2

-7.0
-19.8
-27.7
-8.5

61.51
1.24
115.62

61.56
1.24
115.49

-0.1
0.0
0.1

-0.2
-0.7
-2.9

0.5
-9.5
-8.9

51.8
59.6
46.9
67.2
56.5

51.7
58.9
46.1
67.2
56.0

0.3
1.3
1.8
-0.1
0.9

9.8
NA
7.8
7.0
14.7

50.0
NA
49.5
18.7
36.4

Key Data Points

Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

Key Domestic Economic Indicator

Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate

Period
Oct
Q3
Oct
w/e
Q2
12M
Oct
Sep
Sep
Q3
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
N/A
N/A
N/A

Release Date
28-Nov
24~05Dec
13~14Nov
14-Nov
28-Nov
30-May
13~14Nov
12-Nov
12-Nov
24~05Dec
13~14Nov
14-Nov
14-Nov
14-Nov
14-Nov
2-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec

Latest Values
4.70%
2.50%
2.50%
-

Prior Values
4,388.26bln IN
-7.8bln $
28.9bln $
315.91bln $
5.70%
4.50%
43.2bln $
0.40%
-1.40%
-34.6bln $
14.25bln $
3.50%
1.30%
2.38%
2.84%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%

Sectoral Index
Sector

Previous

Change

% Change

Volume

Auto

18617.6

18400.4

217.2

1.2

1412000

Banks

20117.8

19894.6

223.2

1.1

3158000

BSE Small Cap

11184.4

11162.0

22.4

0.2

98533000

Capital Goods

15798.2

15883.1

-84.9

-0.5

3554000

9779.3

9725.9

53.4

0.5

668000

FMCG

3-Nov

5-Nov

7-Nov

10-Nov

BSE Cash

11-Nov

12-Nov

11-Nov

12-Nov

NSE Cash

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)

200000
100000
0
3-Nov

5-Nov

7-Nov

10-Nov
NSE Deri vative

Sectoral Performance Monthly Returns (%)

Close

Consumer Durables

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

7762.5

7688.4

74.1

1.0

1306000

Healthcare

14940.1

15011.1

-71.0

-0.5

1220000

IT

10762.5

10773.9

-11.4

-0.1

481000

Metals

11205.9

11308.2

-102.3

-0.9

4117000

Mid Cap

10133.3

10085.7

47.6

0.5

60217000

Oil & Gas

10901.5

10959.1

-57.6

-0.5

1542000

Power

2121.3

2150.7

-29.4

-1.4

8260000

PSU

8203.2

8250.0

-46.8

-0.6

14158000

Real Estate

1654.9

1657.4

-2.5

-0.2

12918000

Banks
Capital Goods
Healthcare
Mid Cap
Power
Auto
FMCG
PSU
BSE Small Cap
Real Estate
Metals
Consumer Durables
Oil & Gas
IT

12.4
10.1
9.0
7.3
7.2
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.4
3.9
2.5
2.0
1.4
0.8
0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0
8.0
(%)

10.0

12.0

14.0

Key News for Today

Company/Industry
Aurobindo
Pharma

News
Aurobindo Pharma has emerged as the highest
bidder with a $132-million bid for acquisition of
nutritional supplement maker Natrol Inc. and
other affiliates

View
If successful, it will pave the way for the
entry
into
the
lucrative
OTC
nutraceuticals space in the US

NIIT

NIIT Ltd and eBay India have launched ePro, an ecommerce certification programme, for online
entrepreneurs. The course would comprise eight
hours of video tutorials and interactive learning
and another eight hours of online cloud learning
with a cost of | 4000

As the ecommerce industry picks up, the

course could see rising enrolments for
NIIT's Individual Learning Solutions. This
could help partially offset the weakness
in IT enrolments

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

PDF created with pdfFactory Pro trial version www.pdffactory.com

Impact

Sensex Chart

Technical Outlook

We said, "Focus on individual stocks until the

Sensex moves beyond its five-day range
decisively..." The index initially gained 216
points but shaving off 167 points after 11:25
am, finished only 99 points or 0.3% higher.
The auto, bank indices added 1.1% each but
the Power Index lost 1.3%. Initially positive,
the A/D ratio also finished marginally negative.
The action formed an Inverted Hammer with a
small body and larger upper shadow. The
index did move above its five-day range but
failed to close above it. Candle-wise, an
Inverted
Hammer can
have
negative
implications, if today's action shows follow-up
weakness and closes below its low. Holding
the candle's low would, however, maintain
positive options.

Pivot Points

CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Index/Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI POWER
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSPITALS
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
BAJAJ AUTO
BOB
BOI
BATA INDIA

Close
28008.90
8383.30
1514.10
478.90
46.40
1816.50
121.05
87.55
1142.55
240.80
285.65
53.45
644.00
1061.75
2599.55
1018.80
288.70
1247.40

S1
28020.10
8386.45
1516.55
469.35
46.25
1801.90
121.10
86.55
1146.05
239.60
284.65
52.95
639.10
1058.50
2595.45
1012.20
284.30
1233.65

S2
27978.15
8375.30
1511.50
464.80
45.90
1774.80
120.15
85.10
1132.55
236.80
282.85
51.85
636.25
1047.50
2576.60
1007.20
281.55
1227.50

R1
28104.05
8408.75
1526.70
479.50
46.90
1856.00
123.00
87.75
1173.05
245.30
288.20
55.15
645.45
1080.50
2633.15
1022.20
289.60
1249.10

R2
28167.80
8424.90
1531.60
484.60
47.20
1867.60
124.70
88.35
1181.55
247.85
289.95
55.45
648.65
1084.55
2638.95
1027.20
292.25
1256.85

Trend
+ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
Neutral
+ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
Neutral
+ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
Neutral
-ve
-ve

Nifty Call Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) November 2014

8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500
8600
8700
8800
150.0

114
89
122

99
28

112
3
1
0

100.0

50.0

92
34
13

0.0
Call

50.0

100.0

150.0

Put

BSE
NSE

Advances
1536
766

Declines
1513
767

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Unchanged
101
54

Daily Technical Calls

1. Buy Aurobindo Pharma in range of 1062.00-1064.00
2. Buy Ambuja Cement in range of 229.75-230.25
3. Buy Shriram Transport Finance above 1040.00
4. Sell Jindal Steel & Power below 153.50
*All recommendations are of November Future

See Momentum Pick for more details

Sell BSES Nov Fut at 631.00-632.00

View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 624.50
Target 2: 616.70
Stop Loss: 638.50
Market Lot: 500
CMP : 635

See Daily Derivatives for more details

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Short Term
Up
7950
7950
8450
8164
7381

Advances / Declines

Buy TMLDVR Nov Fut at 329.00-330.00

View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 332.50
Target 2: 335.50
Stop Loss: 325.50
Market Lot: 1000
CMP : 327.80

49
64

Intraday
Up
8330
8370-8335
8420-8450
0
0

Intraday Derivative Strategy

30
22
30

106

Nifty
Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA