HT FT System

www.imawinner.co.uk

This system is covered by Copyright to Im A Winner 2010. Any unlawful distribution will be
pursued.
Im a Winner specialise in finding statistical and proven betting strategies based on previous
performance as this is the greatest guide to the future. Whilst every effort is made to give
the greatest chance of success Im a Winner do not guarantee or endorse financially any
choices made from this system. All bets placed are at the bettors risk.

First things first

This system works using the rather tempting odds offered by HT/FT betting. The concept of
the bet is that you predict the result at the end of the first half and at the end of the match.
The shrewder readers may have noticed that were already dealing with an accumulator.
We have two bets running that we need to get right. Its a strange approach for Im a winner
to pursue as we generally steer people away from accumulators. Its statistical fact that the
more bets you put in a chain the less chance you have of getting the correct result. Whats
more, you are extremely unlikely to return anywhere near the true odds of the risk you are
taking from the bookmaker. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule and this system
looks to capitalise on that. In this case, its that we can get a really stand out result from
accumulators.
There are lots of people out there who play the HT/FT market because they offer some
really great returns for correct predictions. The highest returns are usually paid out for
games that change from one extreme to another, for example home team winning at half
time and then the away team winning at full time. If we look at a fairly level game this
weekend, Fulham (5/6) at home to Wigan (7/2) the odds on a H/A result are a tasty 40-1. If
we look at a more one sided match, say Arsenal (1/6) against West Ham (14/1) then the H/A
will attract 66-1.
So, are any of these odds any good? The price of 66-1 basically means that the bookmakers
think that if the game was played over and over again for 66 renewals that result should
come up once although its impossible to prove accurately we think it could well come up
more often than that.
These are the details of the total number of results over the last 3 seasons of the
premiership; each season brings almost identical distributions:

HT / FT System

Its quite a surprising picture to look at. Were all aware that the Home team wins between
40% and 50% of the time but most arent aware that 30% of the time they win the first and
second half. We can of course see now why the odds on an H/A result are so long, 25
instances in 1140 games is a long enough time for anyone to wait! Its also interesting to
note that the home advantage makes no difference in the complete reversal market
Both A/H and H/A has managed 25 instances.
So, what odds are available on HH? This is the highest occurring statistically so it makes
sense to start there. As I look at the Premiership games this weekend the odds on a H/H
result are as follows:

Of course, with a chance of getting it right being 30% then things look a little more difficult.
If we anticipate 3 games to go H/H then it would be fair to assume that the games of
Arsenal, Everton and Manchester Utd are the ones the bookmakers think will end up that
way judging by their odds. Of course, bookmakers can be wrong just as all of us can but its
certainly difficult to find a good selection process for predicting H/H wins with odds over 3
(better than the true odds).
When we refer to the previous table however, what strikes us as a far more interesting
statistic is that games that are drawn at half time constitute 41% of all games. Thats at odds
to the 26% of games that finish that way. This implies that the games are more evenly
pegged up until half time, at which point something changes. It could be conceivable that
the superior teams fitness comes into play for example.
What we find more interesting, and what this system will be based on is that the results D/H
and D/D constitute basically 1/3rd of all games played in the premiership.

So, what happened before?...

The first process in working through any system, especially for football, is to compare our
hunch over a period of time to ensure that our suspicions are accurate. This should also
throw up some seasonal variances if the apply.
The first thing we checked was the percentage of games that ended in either a D/H or a D/D
result throughout the course of 2009/2010, 2008/2009 and 2007/2008. It makes for some
interesting reading.

Or in Graphical format:

This shows that although 32% is a good and accurate average over the course of a season it
also shows that certain other trends appear every year.

Every season starts slowly with August consistently showing lower than 30%
occurances

As the season progresses there is a consistent increase in these types of results

The strongest period each year are the month of December, January and February
which consistently scored 30% or higher.

In light of these details we decided that the system we built should be based around the
three months over the end of the year.
Of course, although this is a higher than average period in time, we dont know if this is even
week by week or whether there are a few weeks that swing the overall statistics. Lets look
at the same seasons from December to February on a by week basis.

Looking through this, it is fair to say that there is non consistent results on a week by week
basis. The swings can be anywhere from 0 matching bets through to 10. So how can we take
advantage of this? The main peice of data that catches my eye is that during each season
there have been at least three examples during this period where theres been at least 6
corresponding matches. Now please just bare in mind that week 4 is usually the week over
Christmas when two sets of games are played.
We think that this phenomenom should then lend itself to placing six-fold bets, one per
week. Looking through the available odds that should easily counteract the chance of losing
9 bets in every series of 12. We have to build a certain amount of flexibility into the
selection process though so I suggest 6 ways from 8 selections combining two results (DH
and DD).
Lets just recap that section so that youre all clear. Our bets will be six fold bets from eight
matches covering each match for the DD and DH results.
This leads us to 1792 bets. Thats quite a considerable sum to be fair and at 0.05p bets it
still adds up to a staggering 89.60. What would you win if you got 6 matching results? If we
work on an average price of 4-1 then you would win 781.25 or at 5-1 youd receive
2332.80. That is of course assuming a single six-fold coming off. If you managed to get 7
correct results from your eight you would have a lot more correct six folds and with 8
correct you would really hit the jackpot! I conservatively predict that you would return
closer to 50,000 for all 8 correct responses in one go (to a 0.05p stake).

Of course, you can find certain bookmakers to take 0.01 pence bets and this brings the cost
down to a far more reasonable 17.92 bet per week with the potential of approximately
10,000 returns.

So who do we back?
So if we can only cover 8 games and there are 10 each week in the premiership then how do
we choose which two to drop?
A lot of information that we could use is just impossible to get hold of after the event so we
have to use this seasons recent results to see if we can find any trends. To date (28th
October 2010) there have been 90 games and 30 of those have finished as either DH or DD
(33% sound familiar?). The breakdown of results are as follows:

As you can see, the season has started as anticipated with a very poor showing in August
and then some more stable results as we head further into the season. Its interesting to see
that at least one of the weeks so far would have given us our 6 timer. The games that week
that finished as wed hope were:
Stoke vs Blackburn (DD)
Sunderland vs Man United (DD)
Tottenham vs Aston Villa (DH)
West Brom vs Bolton (DD)
Wigan vs Wolves (DH)
Man City vs Newcastle(DH)
The ones from that week that didnt go to plan were:
West Ham vs Fulham
Birmingham vs Everton
Liverpool vs Blackpool
Chelsea vs Arsenal
The difficulty is that for the six correct games, there are no stand out results. Nothing too
weird or wonderful. Unfortunately, the same is also true of the ones that didnt match.
Although Chelsea have amazing form at the moment (theyve won every home game as
H/H) it would have been concievable that Arsenal would have held them until half time. The
only benefit is that if we had to forfeit 2 games from the list then it would have been West

Ham at home (bottom of the league) and Liverpool at home (in absolutely awful form with 6
points from 8 games). This would have given us our six timer but can we make it anymore
scientific?
Firstly we looked at the differences in league position to see what that produced.

It is clear that the extremes of the ranges dont create an accurate result. For example, a far
better away team playing a low level home team would create an an away win. Even if a
draw does come through at half time the final result would ruin it. I would however have a
12 place difference as the minimum that would cause this result. Of course, should the same
difference be in place for the home team then were far more likely to get a HH results so
these should equally be avoided.
When we look at the games to date so far this premier league season there have been 30
occasions of DD and DH. Looking at them for clues as to the result becomes quite difficult.
Of the 20 teams in the premiership, 14 of them have been the home team whilst 17 have
been the away team. Of the 30 games, twenty were 0-0 draws at half time with ten of them
1-1 draws. Of the 30 games, 11 of them finished with the same score that they held at
halftime. Of the remaining 19 games, 7 games went on to be higher scoring draws.
So if this doesnt really give us much more of a clue then maybe we should look at the
games that are actually coming up each week. Lets have a look at week 1

Well in our opinion it would take a rather pessemistic punter to not label Manchester Utd
away to Blackpool as a good exclusion. Of course, even that has some doubt to it as
Manchester United have managed one win and six draws away. Of course, Blackpool arent
perfect especially off the back of a 0-0 draw with relegation headed West Ham so it would
be fair to say that its unlikely. In addition, I would have to put Birmingham City as another
exclusion Tottenham are shaky but theyre also desperate to make sure they get 4th for
more Champions league football so Birmingham could be the ones. Of course, some of
those people out there will think that St. Andrews is a bit of a strong hold but believe me,
its not against the top teams.
Week 4
Youll have no doubt noticed that week 4 poses a unique opportunity. The week over
Christmas contains two sets of premier league games. Thats a total of 20 games to choose
the winners from. This is actually a fantastic opportunity as every year there have been at
least 6 DD and DH results. It was during this period that the highest peak of 10 occured. Of
course, there is the problem that you have more choices to make but this is a once a year
opportunity. Depending on the decisions you are presented with every year it may well be
advisable to select a couple of different bets as you will stand to recieve a extremely
substantial reward for getting things right.
This system, it is fair to say, has two parts. The first is the opportunity, the discovery that
these occurances arent as freak as we may first expect and the decision to use an
accumulator to get the best possible return. The second is the choice of which teams to
select. Throughout all of our investigations we havent managed to find a guaranteed way of

saying if team A has this then dont select them. Its a subjective decision and one that can
only be compiled through in-depth analysis and a certain amount of good judgement.
We hope that you can see the benefits of this approach and we hope that you will all be
celebrating come the end of the season. Although we have found no scientific way of
selecting the removal of teams we would center our approach around excluding teams
where they are substantially better that there opposition both home and away. Then
compare this with all of the standard tipsters the racing post, sportinglife, skysports, bbc,
and see which teams they all confirm wont fit with our plan (namely away win).
Please remember that betting should be fun and Im a winner supply this system entirely at
your own risk. Do not gamble more than you can afford to lose and seek help if you feel
youre out of control.