Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
PART NO
12-720
24-720
1-720
34-720
1-420
TOTAL
DAYS
UNITS/DAY
TOTAL
DAYS
UNITS/DAY
75219
65
1157
122868
64
1920
54996
63
873
292465
Q II
1788
2097
2116
2352
2721
3029
Q III
3748
4008
3523
4092
4449
5786
Q II
36
47
21
36
42
22
Q IV
5115
5532
5921
6824
7184
9451
Q III
43
32
45
38
27
26
3167
3123
3374
3968
4531
4231
Q IV
18
34
19
28
25
28
YEAR TOTAL
179634
191880
194142
224068
245505
292461
YEAR TOTAL
13
1430
24
1781
38
1599
43
1885
11
1365
29
1365
EAR TOTAL
EAR TOTAL
Qtr
PVB Total
1
27512
2
45798
3
76968
4
43858
1
30580
2
53198
3
88704
4
51590
1
35372
2
57840
3
93388
4
58906
1
39382
2
75219
3
122868
4
54996
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
Year
Qtr
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
140000
120000
100000
80000
Qtr
PVB Total
60000
40000
20000
0
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
PVB
Trend
Use Trend corrected holts method to forecast demand for 2005 quarter 1
Compare the obtained value with actual sales given
The error if less than method used previously then this method is better
Also find value of value for each quarter using the formula and compare it with actual sales
otal
r (PVB Total)
700
600
500
400
Qtr
Fire Valve Total
300
200
100
0
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Fire Valve
Trend and Seasonality
Use Trend and seasonality corrected holts method to forecast demand for 2005 quarter 1
Compare the obtained value with actual sales given
The error if less than method used previously then this method is better
ve Total
Assuming
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
values
0<alpha<1
0<beta<1
0<gamma<
0.2
0.1
0.25
Holtz-winters forecas
Alpha*(Current Sales - Last year season Factor)*+(1-alpha)
beta*(This quarter base level - Prior week base level)+(1-b
Gamma*(this quarter sale - this quarter base level) + (1-g
Seasonal factor
Year
Period
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
Qtr
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
98376.839
99712.203
101047.57
102382.93
103718.29
105053.66
106389.02
107724.38
109059.75
110395.11
111730.48
113065.84
114401.2
115736.57
117071.93
118407.29
119742.66
121078.02
122413.39
123748.75
125084.11
126419.48
127754.84
129090.2
130425.57
131760.93
133096.3
134431.66
135767.02
137102.39
138437.75
139773.11
141108.48
142443.84
143779.2
145114.57
146449.93
147785.3
149120.66
150456.02
151791.39
153126.75
154462.11
140000
120000
100000
80000
Qtr
PVB Total
60000
Linear (P
40000
20000
0
1
Forecasting
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Qtr
PVB Total
Linear (PVB Total)
14 15 16