Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
01
INTRODUCTION
04
06
06
09
10
13
16
17
21
REFERENCES
23
ENDNOTES
24
APPENDIX
25
25
27
28
31
33
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
This report presents empirical research conducted by the
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) in conjunction with
the Religious Freedom and Business Foundation1 that aims
to get beyond ideology to provide a more comprehensive
understanding of how religion interacts with peace.
Quantitative analysis has revealed that many of the
commonly made statements surrounding the relationship
between peace and religion are not supported by the
analysis contained in this study.
This report answers five common questions relating to
religion and violence. To determine the list of questions the
most common themes of discussion and opinions expressed
in the media were identified. The scope of the research
highlights key relationships between peace and religion and
provides a platform and opportunities for further research.
QUESTION 1
IS RELIGION THE MAIN CAUSE OF CONFLICT TODAY?
Religion is not the main cause of conflicts today. Whilst
religion has evidently been a cause of many conflicts
throughout history it is by no means the only reason for
conflict. Surveying the state of 35 armed conflicts from 2013,
religious elements did not play a role in 14, or 40 per cent.
It is notable that religion did not stand as a single cause in
any conflict; however 14 per cent did have religion and the
establishment of an Islamic state as driving causes. Religion
was only one of three or more reasons for 67 per cent of the
conflicts where religion featured as a factor to the conflict.
QUESTION 2
DOES THE PROPORTION OF RELIGIOUS BELIEF
OR ATHEISM IN A COUNTRY DETERMINE THE PEACE
OF THE COUNTRY?
There is no clear statistical relationship between either
the presence or the absence of religious belief and
conflict. Even at the extremes, the least peaceful
countries are not necessarily the most religious and vice
versa. For example, when looking at the ten most
peaceful countries three would be described as highly
religious, and when looking at the ten least peaceful
nations two would be described as the least religious.
Conversely, the absence of religious belief, as manifested
by atheism, also sees no significant link to broader
societal peacefulness.
QUESTION 3
IN MUSLIM COUNTRIES, DOES THE DEMOGRAPHIC
SPREAD OF SUNNI AND SHIA DETERMINE PEACE?
Despite the apparent role of Sunni and Shia sectarian
violence in parts of the Middle East today, when reviewed
globally, countries with high proportions of Sunni and
Shia are not necessarily violent or plagued with conflict.
What distinguishes Muslim-majority countries is differing
performance in the Pillars of Peace, a framework
developed by IEP to assess the positive peace factors that
create peaceful societies. Specifically, countries that have
lower corruption, well-functioning government and better
relations with neighbours are more peaceful regardless of
the particular levels of Sunni and Shia.
This report acknowledges the sectarian violence between
Sunni and Shia that is a major feature of conflicts in the
Middle East today, but highlights that Sunni and Shia
QUESTION 4
IS RELIGION KEY TO UNDERSTANDING
WHAT DRIVES PEACE?
There are many other socio-economic characteristics that
have more significant explanatory power in understanding
why conflict and peace occurs than religion does. There
are however some religious factors that are significantly
related to peace.
Multivariate regression analysis reveals that there is a
consistent relationship between factors such as corruption,
political terror, gender and economic inequality and
political instability which determine poor peace scores as
measured by the Global Peace Index (GPI). The research
clearly indicates that these factors are globally more
significant determinants in driving violence and conflict in
society than the presence of religious belief.
Nevertheless, there are two religious characteristics which are
associated with peace; restrictions on religious behaviour as
well as hostilities towards religion. Countries without a
dominant religious group are, on average, more peaceful and
have less restrictions or social hostilities around religion than
countries with a dominant religious group. However,
government type has much greater explanatory power than
religion in understanding differing levels of peace.
QUESTION 5
CAN RELIGION PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE IN PEACEBUILDING?
While a lot of analysis may focus on the negative role of
religion it is important to acknowledge the potential positive
role of religion in peacebuilding through inter-faith dialogue
and other religiously-motivated movements. It was found
that countries that had higher membership of religious
groups tended to be slightly more peaceful.
Religion can be the motivator or catalyst for bringing
about peace through ending conflict as well as helping to
build strong social cohesion. Furthermore, religion can act
as a form of social cohesion and, like membership of
other groups, greater involvement in society can
strengthen the bonds between citizens strengthening the
bonds of peace.
KEY FINDINGS
INTRODUCTION
This report investigates the empirical relationships between
peace, as measured by the Global Peace Index (GPI), and
various religious measures related to levels of religious
belief, restrictions and hostilities towards religion, combined
with a number of other socio-economic factors, to
statistically explain the relationship between religion, peace
and conflict.
A key source of information are two indices created by Pew
Research which measure government restrictions on religion
and social hostility towards religious groups referred to in the
report as religious restrictions and religious hostilities. These
indices have been generated by relying on published reports
QUESTION 1
IS RELIGION THE MAIN CAUSE
OF CONFLICT TODAY?
To better understand the role of religion it is important to
understand how many conflicts actually involve religion and
how many have religion as the sole or main motivator. Many
conflicts throughout history have been attributed to religion.
To better understand the role of religion in conflict, 35
armed conflicts in 2013 were analysed to determine the role
of religious characteristics in these conflicts.4 Many conflicts
which involve religion also have many other grievances
associated with the conflict.
There were many causes of conflict for the 35 recorded
armed conflicts from around the world in 2013. The
definition of armed conflict here is from the Escola de
Cultura de Pau and is the continuous and organised use of
force causing either at least 100 fatalities in a year or has a
serious impact on human security, infrastructure or natural
resources and has different objectives from those of
common crime.5 The majority of these conflicts had
multiple background causes, with different elements
simultaneously featuring as motivating factors to disputes.
Of the 35 conflicts in 2013, 86 per cent had more than one
cause. Nearly two thirds of conflicts in 2013 had among their
main cause opposition to a particular government, or
opposition to the economic, ideological, political or social
system of a state. Identity was a feature in most conflicts in
2013, with 21 conflicts involving clashes of identity as a main
cause of conflict. When analysing the motivation for these
conflicts the desire for identity and self-government was a
part of 60 per cent of the conflicts. Whilst religious elements
Identity based
Opposition to
Government
Opposition to the
ideological system
Self-government
(separatist)
Religious element
in conflict it is not the major factor, albeit 14 per cent did have
the religion and the specific establishment of an Islamic state
as driving causes. Notably, religion alone was not the sole
cause of conflict for any armed conflicts in 2013.
There were 14 conflicts which did not have a significant
religious element, of which five had only one cause of
conflict. Two conflicts, Burundi and Libya, were solely driven
by Government concerns. Conflict in Burundi was mainly
about the power and military distribution between the
majority Hutu and minority Tutsi ethnic groups. Libya
continues to face conflict stemming from political uncertainty
IDENTITY
RELIGIOUS
ELEMENT
SELF-GOVERNMENT
(SEPARATIST)
OPPOSITION
TO THE SYSTEM
(IDEOLOGICAL)
OPPOSITION
TO THE
GOVERNMENT
RESOURCE-BASED
TERRITORY-BASED
21
21
17
18
Afghanistan
Algeria (AQIM)
Burundi
Central Africa (LRA)
Central African Republic
Colombia
DR Congo (east)
Ethiopia (Ogaden)
India (Assam)
India (CPI-M)
India (Jammu and Kashmir)
India (Manipur)
Iraq
Israel-Palestine
Libya
Mali (north)
Myanmar
Nigeria (Boko Haram)
Pakistan
Pakistan (Balochistan)
Philippines (Mindanao-Abu Sayyaf)
Philippines (NPA)
Russia (Chechnya)
Russia (Dagestan)
Russia (Ingushetia)
Russia (Kabardino-Balkaria)
Somalia
South Sudan
Sudan (Darfur)
Sudan (South Kordofan and Blue Nile)
Syria
Thailand (south)
Turkey (southeast)
Yemen (AQAP)
Yemen (Houthis)
TOTAL
Source: Escola de Cultura de Pau. Alert 2014!
MEASURING PEACE
Peace is a complicated concept; but also a concept
which is universally recognised as important to
measure and define. The GPI is the worlds
preeminent measure of peacefulness at the national
level. The GPI is comprised of 22 indicators which
measure the existence or absence of violence or the
fear of violence. The indicators were originally
selected with the assistance of an international panel
of independent experts in 2007 and have been
reviewed and improved by the GPI expert panel on
an annual basis.
In attempting to gauge peacefulness, the GPI
investigates the extent to which countries are involved
in ongoing domestic and international conflicts, the
level of societal safety and security, and the extent to
which a society is militarised. Five indicators measure
domestic and international conflicts, which includes
indicators of both total deaths from conflict and the
total number of conflicts a country is involved in. The
level of safety and security within a nation is captured
by ten indicators. Low crime rates, minimal terrorist
activity and violent demonstrations, harmonious
relations with neighbouring countries, a stable political
scene and a small proportion of the population being
internally displaced or made refugees can be equated
with peacefulness. The remaining indicators are
related to a countrys military build-upreflecting the
assertion that the level of militarisation and access to
weapons is directly linked to peace.
For full indicator detail see Appendix A.
QUESTION 2
DOES THE PROPORTION OF RELIGIOUS BELIEF OR ATHEISM
IN A COUNTRY DETERMINE THE PEACE OF THE COUNTRY?
0.14
EXTERNAL GPI
-0.12
INTERNAL GPI
0.22
GOVERNMENT
RESTRICTIONS INDEX (GRI)
-0.03
0.03
0.21
MILITARIZATION
-0.08
ONGOING CONFLICT
0.06
Source:
World
Religion
Project
Source: IEP,
IEP,EIU,
World
Religion
Project
10
There is a no overall trend between higher levels of religious beliefs and lower peace.
4.0
R2=0.02
IRQAFG
3.5
PRK
GPI
3.0
RUS
2.5
CHN
JAM
MORE PEACEFUL
2.0
VNM
1.5
JPN
NZL
ISL
1.0
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
11
FIGURE 3 COUNTRIES WITH GREATER THAN FIVE PER CENT ATHEISM SORTED BY 2013 GPI SCORE.
COMMUNIST OR FORMER COMMUNIST COUNTRIES IN RED.
There is not a statistical meaningful relationship between the GPI and the proportion of atheists in a country. The most peaceful country with high atheism is Denmark.
It has similar atheists levels as Kyrgyzstan, the third least peaceful country with high athiesm.
100%
ATHEISM LEVELS
80%
60%
40%
20%
Denmark
New Zealand
Austria
Switzerland
Japan
Finland
Canada
Sweden
Norway
Belgium
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Australia
Germany
Portugal
Netherlands
Hungary
Uruguay
Spain
Chile
Slovakia
Italy
Estonia
Vietnam
Latvia
United Kingdom
Lithuania
France
Mongolia
Albania
Montenegro
Kazakhstan
Trinidad & Tobago
Belarus
United States
China
Ukraine
Jamaica
South Africa
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
North Korea
0%
MORE PEACEFUL
LESS PEACEFUL
12
QUESTION 3
IN MUSLIM COUNTRIES, DOES THE
DEMOGRAPHIC SPREAD OF SUNNI
AND SHIA DETERMINE PEACE?
The breakdown of Sunni and Shia in a country is not
necessarily a key determinant of peace. Qatar is the most
peaceful country in the Middle East and North Africa
region, ranking 19 in the 2013 GPI, and has the same Sunni/
Shia breakdown as the least peaceful country in the 2013
GPI, Afghanistan.
FIGURE 4 SUNNI AND SHIA AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION, SORTED BY GPI
The different levels of Sunni and Shia in a country does not explain differing performance in peace. Graph covers Muslim
countries with greater than five per cent of both Sunni and Shia.
Shia
80%
60%
40%
20%
MORE PEACEFUL
Iran
Lebanon
Yemen
Iraq
Afghanistan
1.71
Azerbaijan
Kuwait
U.A.E.
1.68
Tajikistan
1.45
Bahrain
GPI score
Qatar
0%
Country
Sunni
100%
2.14
2.30
2.34
2.47
2.59
2.75
3.25
3.44
LESS PEACEFUL
13
Given that there are only 11 countries which met the criteria
of greater than five per cent Sunni/Shia minority there were
not enough countries to perform a through statistical
analysis. However, certain observations can still be made.
While it is beyond the scope of this report to analyse the
exact causes of intra-religious conflict, this does suggest
that demographic aspects of sectarian differences does not
make conflict and violence inevitable.
Further research on the positive factors associated with
Sunni/Shia relations in these relatively peaceful Muslim
states is important to better understand approaches for
peacebuilding and to help avoid inter-religious conflict.
The Pillars of Peace provide an insight into what features
differentiate the peace performance of countries with high
levels of Sunni and Shia. Three of the eight Pillars of Peace
correlate with the GPI for the most Muslim countries.
This is a very strong correlation, however given the small
sample size it cannot be seen as being statistically
significant, but is indicative of factors that are known to
lead to peace.14
Certainly the Pillars of Peace Low Levels of Corruption and
Well-Functioning Governments are more likely to result in
outcomes where minorities are better included and Good
Relations with Neighbours lowers the likelihood of foreign
countries destabilising a country. This demonstrates that
countries with a majority of Muslims which perform well in
the three Pillars, as well as the Positive Peace Index tend to
be more peaceful.
The Good Relations with Neighbours Pillar refers to
relations between communities as well as to crossborder
relations. Low Levels of Corruption is linked with a Well
Functioning Government. See Box 3 for more information
on the Pillars of Peace.
0.71
0.61
0.71
0.70
14
15
16
QUESTION 4
IS RELIGION KEY TO UNDERSTANDING
WHAT DRIVES PEACE?
SOCIAL HOSTILITIES
INDEX
GPI
0.36
0.49
EXTERNAL GPI
0.48
0.53
INTERNAL GPI
0.25
0.38
0.58
GRI
Source: IEP, PEW
17
WORSE
No dominant group
Dominant group
4.5
4
3.5
Performance
3
2.5
2
1.5
BETTER
1
0.5
0
GPI
18
RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY
GOVERNMENT TYPE
Hostilities
Religious restrictions and religious hostilities fall on a bell-curve with the mid-levels of religious
diversity having the worst performance. Europe is the only region against trend.
North
America
Sub Saharan
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Russia
and CIS
South Asia
Europe
MENA
Central America
and Caribbean
South
America
32%
41%
46%
61%
66%
68%
69%
75%
77%
< HETEROGENEOUS
HOMOGENEOUS >
19
second best performing government type on the Social Hostilities Index, reflecting the
enforced peace that can occur in some authoritarian contexts.
Every full democracy, except the US, is amongst the 50 most peaceful countries in the world.
Full democracies have disproportionately higher levels of non-believers than other forms of
government. However, the overall proportions of atheists are generally very low and are
therefore incapable of creating a strong influence on the factors that affect peace. Full
democracies are peaceful regardless of the levels of religious belief.
WORSE
GPI
Performance
BETTER
Full democracy
Flawed democracy
Hybrid regime
Authoritarian regime
Number of countries
56
Authoritarian regime
Hybrid regime
Flawed democracy
Full democracy
58
0
12
22
16
28
12
13
14
28
19
6
5
2
1
510% population atheist
10
1
4
10%+ population atheist
20
QUESTION 5
CAN RELIGION PLAY A POSITIVE
ROLE IN PEACEBUILDING?
FIGURE 9 PEACE COMPARED TO ABOVE AND BELOW AVERAGE MEMBERSHIP RATES OF GROUPS
Countries with above average membership rates for organisations are on average more peaceful. This includes membership of
church or religious groups.
2.2
Government Restrictions Index (GRI)
2.0
GPI
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
Any other
organisation
Sport or
recreation
Art, music,
educational
Church or
religious
Charity or
humanitarian
Professional
Labour
union
Political
party
Environment
21
22
REFERENCES
Maoz Z., & Henderson E. (2010). The World Religion Dataset, 1945-2010:
Basedau M., Strver G., & Vllers J., (2011). Violence and Security, Cutting
Bread or Cutting Throats? Findings from a New Database on Religion,
Catherwood C. (2007). Making War In The Name Of God. New York, USA:
Citadel Press.
RisingTideofRestrictions-fullreport.pdf.
Pew Research Center (2013). The Worlds Muslims: Religion, Politics
and Society. Retrieved from http://www.pewforum.org/files/2013/04/
worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-full-report.pdf.
Pew Research Center (2014). Global Religious Diversity. Retrieved from
http://www.pewforum.org/files/2014/04/Religious-Diversity-full-report.pdf.
Rogers M., Bamat, T., & Ideh J. (ed.s) (2008). Pursuing Just Peace:
An Overview of Case Studies for Faith-Based Peacebuilders. Baltimore,
USA: Catholic Relief Services.
Seul J. (1999). Ours is the Way of God: Religion, Identity, And Intergroup
Conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 36(5) pp. 553-569.
Smock D. (2002). Interfaith Dialogue and Peacebuilding. Washington DC,
USA: United States Institute of Peace.
Smock D. (2006). Religious Contributions to Peacemaking: When
Religion Brings Peace, Not War. Peaceworks 55. Washington DC, USA:
United States Institute of Peace.
Thomassen B. (2007). Culture and Politics: The Challenge of the New
Identity Politics. Processi Storici e Politiche di Pace.
United Nations Global Compact, Business for Peace, Religious Freedom
& Business Foundation (2014). Business: A Powerful Force for Supporting
Interfaith Understanding and Peace. Retrieved from
http://religiousfreedomandbusiness.org/uploads/3/2/9/7/3297448/
business_a_powerful_force_for_interfaith_understanding_and_peace.pdf.
23
ENDNOTES
1.
16.
Ibid.
17.
Basedau M., Strver G., & Vllers J., (2011). Violence and Security,
Cutting Bread or Cutting Throats? Findings from a New Database
18.
http://religiousfreedomandbusiness.org/.
2.
3.
Rodopi B.V.
4.
19.
20.
21.
Ibid p. 16.
6.
7.
Gort J., Jansen H., & Vroom H. (ed.s) (2002). Religion, Conflict and
Reconciliation: Multifaith Ideals and Realities. New York, USA:
research/understanding-peace/structures-of-peace.
22.
23.
ArmedConflict/Running_on_Faith.pdf.
www.correlatesofwar.org/COW2%20Data/Religion/Religion.htm.
For more information see the Institute for Economics and Peace.
24.
9.
25.
Press p. 10.
26.
10.
11.
12.
Religious-Diversity-full-report.pdf.
Fox J. (2007). The rise of religion and the fall of the civilization
paradigm as explanations for intra-state conflict. Cambridge
Review of International Affairs, 20(3) pp. 361-382.
14.
15.
Grim B.J. & Finke R. (2007). Religious Persecution in CrossNational Context: Clashing Civilizations or Regulated Economies?.
American Sociological Review 72 p. 637.
24
APPENDIX
APPENDIX A
DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
Five main sources of data have been used to measure and
assess the relationship between religion and peace.
The first is the Global Peace Index (GPI) comprised of 22
indicators. The GPI uses the absence of violence or fear of
violence as the definition of peace. The index consists of
measures of external peace and internal peace. The indicators
can also be divided into three groups, militarization, ongoing
conflicts and societal safety and security.
25
Questions include:
Does any level of government interfere with
worship or other religious practices?
Is religious literature or broadcasting limited by
any level of government?
Was there harassment or intimidation of religious
groups by any level of government?
Questions include:
Were there crimes, malicious acts or violence
motivated by religious hatred or bias?
Did violence result from tensions between
religious groups?
Did organized groups use force or coercion in an
attempt to dominate public life with their
perspective on religion, including preventing some
religious groups from operating in the country?
26
APPENDIX B
EXPLANATION OF CONFLICT CATEGORIES
The seven categories that underpin conflict are not mutually
exclusive, but rather there are conflicts which could fit into
all categories. The definitions of the seven categories are:
27
APPENDIX C
CORRELATION SCATTERPLOTS
LESS HOSTILITY
10
R2 = 0.25
MORE HOSTILITY
0
0
LESS RESTRICTIONS
10
MORE RESTRICTIONS
4.0
3.5
3.0
GPI
R2 = 0.13
2.5
MORE PEACEFUL
LESS PEACEFUL
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
LESS RESTRICTIONS
10
MORE RESTRICTIONS
28
MORE PEACEFUL
LESS PEACEFUL
External GPI
FIGURE 12 GOVERNMENT RESTRICTIONS INDEX (2012) VS EXTERNAL GLOBAL PEACE INDEX (2013)
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
R2 = 0.07
1.5
1.0
0
LESS RESTRICTIONS
10
MORE RESTRICTIONS
LESS PEACEFUL
MORE PEACEFUL
Internal GPI
FIGURE 13 GOVERNMENT RESTRICTIONS INDEX (2012) VS INTERNAL GLOBAL PEACE INDEX (2013)
3.5
3.0
2.5
R2 = 0.05
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
LESS RESTRICTIONS
10
MORE RESTRICTIONS
LESS PEACEFUL
MORE PEACEFUL
GPI
3.0
2.5
R2 = 0.25
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
LESS RESTRICTIONS
10
MORE RESTRICTIONS
29
LESS PEACEFUL
MORE PEACEFUL
External GPI
FIGURE 15 SOCIAL HOSTILITIES INDEX (2012) VS EXTERNAL GLOBAL PEACE INDEX (2013)
3.5
3.0
2.5
R2 = 0.07
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
LESS RESTRICTIONS
10
MORE RESTRICTIONS
LESS PEACEFUL
MORE PEACEFUL
Internal GPI
FIGURE 16 SOCIAL HOSTILITIES INDEX (2012) VS INTERNAL GLOBAL PEACE INDEX (2013)
3.5
3.0
2.5
R2 = 0.17
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
LESS RESTRICTIONS
10
MORE RESTRICTIONS
30
APPENDIX D
MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
FDI OF GDP
Estimate
Std. Error
T value
Pr (>|t|)
1.11E+00
3.57E-01
3.099
0.00260 **
-3.07E-10
1.26E-10
-2.431
0.01706 *
-3.23E-01
4.72E-02
-6.835
9.89E-10
1.92E-01
4.19E-02
4.587
1.47e-
-1.13E-02
2.19E-03
-5.137
1.64E-06
-5.95E-03
4.02E-03
-1.481
0.14223
7.78E-01
4.53E-01
1.718
0.08927
1.17E-02
1.23E-02
0.954
0.34283
4.43E-06
1.56E-06
2.832
0.00572
1.41E-02
2.60E-03
5.416
5.13e-07 ***
-2.15E-01
9.89E-02
-2.175
0.03226 *
0.8992
0.8879
79.42 on 10 and 89 DF
<2.2e-16
RESIDUAL STANDARD ERROR
31
INTERPRETATION
Shows the amount of change in the dependent
variable due to a one unit increase in the independent
variable. For this we can say that a one unit increase in
the Gini coefficient is related to a 1.41E-02 increase
in the internal GPI.
32
APPENDIX E
WORLD VALUES SURVEY VIEW
The World Values Survey has only limited data points for atheism and religious
service attendance in 2010. There is a bias towards European countries.
4.0
3.5
RUS
3.0
GEO
MORE PEACEFUL
GPI
2.5
CYP
FRA
2.0
CZE
SWE
I
IRL
1.5
SL
SL
1.0
R2 = 0.15
0.5
0.0
2%
0%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
4.0
3.5
3.0
GEO
TUR
2.5
GPI
MORE PEACEFUL
RUS
FRA
2.0
OU
ROU
R2 = 0.11
CZE
IRL
1.5
IS
ISL
1.0
0.5
0.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Percentage of the population who answer they never or practically never attend religious services
Sources: IEP, World Values Survey
33
Pillars of Peace
Institute for Economics and Peace
September 2013
Pillars of Peace is a new conceptual
framework for understanding and
describing the factors that create a
peaceful society.
GLOBAL
PEACE
INDEX
2013
37