Contact:

Tom Swiss
(773) 485-9477
February 3, 2015

7th Ward: Holmes at 15% Has Slight Lead

Half of 7th Ward Still Undecided

CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll for Aldertrack on Tuesday, February 3, 2015 for
7th Ward Alderman with 491 respondents.
Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters.
Natashia Holmes

76

15.5%

Keiana Barrett

49

10.0%

Gregory Mitchell

37

7.5%

LaShonda Shonnie Curry

27

7.1%

Joseph Moseley II

20

4.1%

Flora Flo Digby

16

3.3%

Bernie Riley

1.8%

Margie Reid

1.0%

244

49.7%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 4.51% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS
Natashia Holmes has a slight lead with only 15% of the vote in a crowded field of eight candidates. Often
voters in African-American communities break late, so it is not surprising to see half the respondents
undecided. Building brand identity is very expensive and in a crowded field, money will play a large
factor deciding who makes the runoff.

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 1


Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further
development in this race.

METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections,
likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections.

CROSSTABS
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

197
294

40.1%
59.9%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 - 64
Age 65 plus

38
128
186
138

12.4%
21.0%
35.5%
31.1%

*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Respondents by Zipcode
60617 Count
60619 Count
60649 Count

230
7
253

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 2