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Contents
1. Alternative Ways of Hedging Against Exchange Risk on Transaction
2. Hedging Through Options
Learning Objectives:
1. Identify transaction exposure,. Which assets or liabilities and cash flows are
exposed to changes in exchange rates?
2. Strategies to hedge or not to hedge against the exchange rate risk. How to
manage transaction exposure?
3. How to conduct hedging through a forward contract?
4. How to conduct a spot hedge or a money-market hedge?
5. How to conduct hedging through an option?
6. Evaluate various strategies and make a decision in favor of a certain strategy.
2.0 Objective:
To hedge the transaction exposure on current asset of accounts receivable that
comes in existence in March, and to maximize dollar receipt against the accounts
receivable denominated in pounds.
The main concern is that pound will depreciate against dollar (or dollar will appreciate
against pound) so that dollar receipt against pound receivables will be adversely
affected.
2.1 Remain un-hedged
GD may be just happy with the transaction risk. If the managers of GD place a very
high trust in the Foreign Exchange Advisorys forecast of $1.4350/, they may decide
not to hedge. In this case they are exposed to risk,and their expected receipt is
1,000,000($1.4350/)=$1,435,000 in 3 months. (This amount, however, is at risk).
Suppose, if the pound falls to $1.3800/ in June, GD would receive only $1,380,000
($1,435,000- $1,380,000= $55,000 less). However, if the transaction were left
uncovered and pound strengthened even more than the forecast, GD could receive
more than $1,435,000. Thus, depending upon the future spot rate, there will be
transaction gain or loss.
1.
will need to borrow just enough to repay both principal and interest with the sale
proceeds (1,000,000). The interest is 8% per annum (or 2% for 3 months)
PV=1,000,000/1.02=980,393.
The firm should borrow 980,392 and after 3 months repay that amount plus the
interest of 19,608.
2.
Exchange 980,392 for $ at the current spot rate of $1.40/ and receive
$1,372,549.
3.
Invest in $ money market at the 3-month rate of 2.50% (10% per annum) to
receive in June:
FV=$1,372,549 (1+0.025)=$1,406,862.73
Note that the above cash flow is less than that obtained through the forward market
hedge because quarterly forward rate differential is not equal to the quarterly interest
rate differential (you may like to verify this proposition by calculating the forward and
interest rate differentials and checking whether the IRP holds). Since the IRP does not
hold, under the given conditions, the forward hedge is superior to the money market
hedge.
GD can buy a put option on PHLX with a June expiration date, a strike of 140,
a premium cost of 2.50 cents per pound, and a contract size of 12,500.
2.
Through the put options, GD can lock in the minimum price of in dollars.
Put options on means option to sell . Accounts receivables are the source of , but
the put option enables to hedge against the depreciation of .
3.
Total Cost
=$337.50/$12500=$0.027/
B. appreciates against dollar. At any exchange rate above $1.400 (the exercise
price), GD would allow its option to expire unexercised and would exchange
the pounds for dollars at the spot rate. That rate could be $1.4175 (the forward
rate), $1.4350 (the expected forecast rate), or any other higher rate.
For instance, if the expected rate of $1.4350 is realized in June, then GD will receive
1,000,000=$1,435,000 in the future spot market.
Net proceeds=1,4365,000-27,000 (ignoring the interest cost on $27,000 from March to
June)
=$1,408,000
The downside risk is limited with an option. If the pound depreciated below $1.4000,
GD would exercise its option to sell (put) 1,000,000 at $1.4000/ receiving
$1,400,000 gross, and a net of the $1,373,000 after the premium cost. Although this
downside result is worse than the downside of the forward or money market hedges,
the upside potential is not limited. Thus the superiority of the option strategy over
other hedges depends upon the degree to which the management is riskaverse.
The break even upside spot price of must be
1.4175+0.0270=1.4445.
If the pound has a considerable volatility, there is good chance that it may appreciate
against dollar above $1.4455/, then the option would be a better strategy.
3.0
Spot at
maturity
$/ (X)
Unhedged (Y1)
Total
Recepts
$
million
Recept Per
unit $/
Total
Recepts
$
million
Recept
Per unit
$/
Total
Recepts
$ million
Recept Per
unit $/
Total
Recepts
$
million
Receipt
Per unit
$/
1.35
$ 1.35/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.3730
$ 1.3730/
ITM
1.36
1.3
$ 1.36/
1.41 5
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.3730
$ 1.3730/
ITM
1.37
1.38
1.37
$ 1.37/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.3730
$ 1.3730/
ITM
1.38
$ 1.38/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
$ 1.3730/
ITM
1.39
$ 1.39/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.373
=
1.3730
$ 1.3730/
ITM
1.40
1.40
$ 1.40/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
$ 1.40682/
1.3730
$ 1.3730/
ATM
1.41
1.4175*
1.41
$ 1.41/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
$ 1.3830/
OT
1. 175
$ 1.4175/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.3905
$ 1.3905/
OTM
1.42
1.42
$ 1.42/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.3930
$ 1.3930/
OTM
1.43
1.4350**
1.43
1.4 50
$ 1.43/
$ 1.4350/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.4030
$ 1.4030/
OTM
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.4080
$ 1.4080/
OTM
OTM
OTM
1.35
1. 9
1.3830
1.44
1.44
$ 1.44/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.4130
$ 1.4130/
1.45
1.45
$ 1.45/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.4068
$ 1.40682/
1.4230
$ 1.4230/
1.46
1.46
$ 1.46/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.4330
$ 1.4330/
OTM
1.47
1.47
$ 1.47/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.4430
$ 1.4430/
OTM
1.48
1.48
$ 1.48/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1 40682
$ 1.40682/
1. 530
$ 1.4530/
TM
1.49
1.49
$ 1.49/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.4630
$ 1.4630/
OTM
1.50
1.50
$ 1.50/
1.4175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.4730
$ 1.4730/
OTM
1.51
1.51
$ 1.51/
1. 175
$ 1.4175/
1.40682
$ 1.40682/
1.4830
$ 1.4830/
OTM
* Forward Rate
** Forecast Rate
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3.1
If St ($/) < $ 1.400/ (put is ITM), the put option will be exercised at the
exercise price of x = 1.4. The portfolio value (underlying current assets of accounts
receivable + the put option ) is:
$ 1.4000/ * 1,000,000 27,000 = 1,373,000
So if depreciates unduly below the exercise price, the dollar value of accounts
receivable is protected and a guaranteed sum of $ 1,373,000 will be received.
2.
The put option will not be exercised because it is more profitable to sell in the spot
market at the exchange rate of $ 1.435/.
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3.
Suppose we want to compare the forward and option hedges. What is the spot
St P
1.4175 =
St 0.027
St
1.4445
Conclusion
If you expect that the spot exchange rate will be realized in the range 1.373
1.4450, then both remaining unhedged and the forward hedge are superior to
the put option hedge
If you expect that S will be realized above 1.4450, then put option hedge is a
better choice.
If exchange rates are highly volatile (large variability), so that there is a high
probability that the spot rate will shoot above 1.4445, then put option hedge is
quite desirable.
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4.0
GOAL:
Receive ____
maximum $
from sale
ALTERNATIVES
RESULTS
Unhedged
Wait 3 months, then
sell 1m for $ in the
spot market.
Receive in 3 months
1. An unlimited
Max.
2. An Exp.
$1,435,000.
3. A Min of zero.
Receive $1,417,500
in 3 months (certain)
Receive $1,372,549
in March. Future
value after 3 months
depends on US Int
rate. i s . with
i s =10% receive
$1,406,862.73
1. Receive in 3
months (unlimited
Max -27,000)
2. An expected
amount of 1,408,000
3. A Min 1,373,000
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b)
In each scenario, determine whether the importer should exercise the options, and find
the cost of in terms of $. On October 30, the call premium has increased to $0.055/
for the same options that mature in December.
We will answer the above questions as follows:
8( 31,250)($0.0220)+8($4)=$5,532
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If opportunity cost for about 45 days (Sept 16 to October 30) is also considered, then
the total cost is:
5,532(1+0.01125)=5594.235
Or, $5594.235/250,000 = $0.022377/
Measured from todays viewpoint, the importer has essentially assured that the
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