Forecasting Cosmology Constraints with Type Ia Supernovae

Forecast of Cosmology constraints
using Type Ia Supernovae and photometric typing

E. Gjergo1,2 , Y. Shylnov1 , S. Kuhlmann2
Illinois Institute of Technology, Argonne National Laboratory
ISAAC - IIT Symposium on Astrophysics, Astronomy and

Cosmology
Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)
Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae
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Outline
Introduction
Accelerated expansion of the
Universe
Spectroscopy and photometry
Hubble diagram
Type Ia supernovae
Light curves
Motivation
Cosmology Constraints
Defining a Figure of Merit
Factors changing FoM
6
7
8
Example of FoM changes

Optimal FoM
Quintessence and Modified
Gravity
Comparison to Data sets
Union2.1
Dark Energy Survey (DES)
Wide-Field Infrared Survey
Telescope (WFIRST)
Conclusion
References
Extras - Theory
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Introduction
Accelerated expansion of the Universe
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Introduction
How are measurements done?

We need a way to relate the brightness of an object to its distance
Can objects or events exist, which are common or frequent, and
their luminosity is the same at a fixed distance?
If yes, we have found our light bulbs of the Universe: the dimmer
they are, the farther away they are
Fluctuations must be taken into consideration
Such objects are called standard candles
Standard Candles dont have to have the exact same absolute
magnitude, but you can infer a standardization through other
properties of the object.
We use Type Ia supernovae as standard candles
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Introduction
Example of a Type Ia supernova (SNe)
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Introduction
Example of spectroscopic analysis
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Introduction
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Introduction
Photometric example of light curves in the G R I and Z bands.
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Introduction
Hubble diagram
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Introduction
Type Ia supernovae
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Introduction
Light curves
First example of standardization from Perlmutter (2003) Physics Today
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Introduction
Light curves
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Introduction
Light curves
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Introduction
Light curves
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Motivation
My paper & poster for AAS 222nd Meeting

Reference: Astroparticle Physics, Volume 42, p.
52-61. [arXiv:astro-ph/1205.1480]
www.hep.anl.gov/
egjergo/
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Motivation
Motivation and the Dark Energy Survey (DES)

Photometric surveys will collect a
massive amount of data (great
statistics!)
But we lose spectroscopic information
= data will be contaminated.
Type Ia supernovae are a cosmological
probe, because theyre standardizable.
How to optimize the supernovae
sample? = Figure of Merit (FoM)
advocated by the Dark Energy Task
Force (DETF)
Dark Energy Survey (DES), a
collaboration of 150 scientists from over
20 institutions. 570-Megapixel CCD
camera, mounted at the CTIO in Chile.
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Premise to the Figure of Merit (FoM)
The Dark Energy Task Force (DETF)

defined a Figure of Merit (FoM),
Unlike CDM which has w = 1,
were defining w according to the
CPL parametrization:
w(z) = w0 + wa
z
1+z
Where w0 is todays value and wa is

the possibly time dependent value.
The confidence contours on these two

parameters are given by the Fisher
Matrix:
F
D 2 ( ln L) E
i j
Where L := L(|) is the likelihood,

a probability distribution conditional
on the cosmology parameters
:= (w0 , wa , , k , sys.1 , . . . )
1
This is the first analysis to include Core Collapse systematics in Fisher
matrix forecast
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Definition of Figure of Merit (FoM)

The FoM is defined as follows:
FoM =
1
Areaellipse
Where the ellipse is obtained from the

eigenvalues of the Fisher matrix.
Notice: Data is relatively gaussian
with priors on CMB and BAO
(checked with MCMC).
In this case the Fisher matrix is a
relatively good tool.
Above is an example of two FoMs: the

inner black curve has FoM = 228 and
the outer red one has FoM = 124.
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Factors changing FoM
Factors that alter the FoM the most

Number of supernovae
Distance Modulus error
Core Collapse supernovae contamination
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Example of FoM changes
Example
From raw data, a sample of supernovae is selected with SNR cuts, and fit
probability against supernovae light curve models.
These numbers were produced from a sample with 80% purity.
FoM
FoM
FoM
FoM
FoM
FoM
for
for
for
for
for
for
Ia
Ia
Ia
Ia
Ia
Ia
only
+ CC
+ CC
+ CC
+ CC
+ CC
(CC with Ia mu error)

(CC with CC mu error)
(CC with CC mu error) + CC systematic
(inflated error for 2 /DOF 1)
(inflated error for 2 /DOF 1 and CC systematic)
310
354*
316*
260
181
158
Table: *Increase by SN number

*Decrease due to error.
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Optimal FoM
Optimal FoM
Purity =
Type Ia selected
Total SNe selected
The FoM peaks at 98%

purity
At higher purities, the
FoM drops due to the
lower # of supernovae
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Quintessence and Modified Gravity
Comparison of Friedmann Equations

Friedmann equation for General Relativity with CDM :
2
h
i
a
8G X
H2 =
=
i = H02 m a3 + r a4 + a3(1+w)
2
a
3c
i
Friedmann equation for General Relativity with f (R) corrections:
2

1
a
a
a
+ f fR + fR = H02 m a3 + r a4
a
6
a
a
OR The accelerated expansion of the Universe could be due to a

time-dependent scalar field (quintessence).
Its evolution would then be governed by the Klein-Gordon equation
+ 3H = dV
d .
The Friedmann equation for quintessence:
!
2
a
8G X
1 2
=
i + 2 + V ()
a
3c2
2c
i
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Quintessence and Modified Gravity
Quintessence
Each quintessence model proposes a

different potential
(for a review see Caldwell & Linder,
PRL95, (2005)):
Collaboration with K. Kadowaki and

E. Varty from Loyola University
Chicago, and R. McNees:
V = V0 e
For each , V0 is chosen so that

V = M 4n n - Thawing behavior quintessence matches at a0 .
V = M 4+n n - Freezing
behavior
V=V0e
72
V = M 4 cos2 (/2f ) - Axion-like

aH
Many others
70
68
66
64
62
0.0
0.5
1.0
z
1.5
2.0
The curves, top

to bottom,
represent
potentials with
= 0 to
= 2.5, in
increments
of 0.5
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Union2.1
Real Data
Quintessence V=V0et with Union2.1 data
fHRL broken power law with Union2.1 data
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Union2.1
-LCDM
-LCDM
0.2
0.0
Union2.1
-0.2
= 2.0
fR0 = 0.003
= 2.5
-0.4
LCDM
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

z
fR0 = 0.01
-0.4
LCDM
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

z
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Dark Energy Survey (DES)
Simulated sample
Quintessence V=V0et with DES sims
fHRL broken power law with DES sims
DES sim.
0.2
DES sim.
0.2
= 2.0
fR0 = 0.003
= 2.5
0.0
fR0 = 0.01
0.1
LCDM
-LCDM
-LCDM
0.1
0.0
LCDM
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
z
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
z
0.8
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1.2
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Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
The WFIRST2.4m data also contains systematics, unlike the other two
data sets which only have statistics.
Quintessence V=V0et with WFIRST2.4m sims
fHRL broken power law with WFIRST2.4m sims
Space-based
0.4
space-based
0.2
fR0 = 0.003
= 2.0
fR0 = 0.01
= 2.5
0.0
0.1
LCDM
-LCDM
-LCDM
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

z
LCDM
0.0
0.5
1.0
z
1.5
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Conclusion
Concluding remarks
We have investigated cosmology constraints for a variety of

cosmology models and current and future supernova data
Its likely that well need a space-based mission like WFIRST to
have significant constraints on modified gravity
2model 2CDM (systematics for space-based only)
Quintessence with = 2.0
Quintessence with = 2.5
wef f for fR0 = 0.01
wef f for fR0 = 0.003
Union2.1
2.9
6.5
0.3
0.7
DES simulation
11.7
42.0
0.8
1.3
Space-based sim.
63.4
137.3
16.0
19.9
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References
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Extras - Theory
FRW metric
ds2 = dt2 a2(t)[dr 2/(1 kr 2) + r 2d 2 + r 2 sin2 d2]
a(t) is the cosmic scale factor (a = 1 today)

k is the curvature (k = 0 for flat Euclidean space)
Define redshift z
obs/em = 1 + z = 1/a(t)
Hubble parameter
H(z) =
a
a
H0 = 72 km/sec/Mpc
ds2 =
1
(1 + z)2
2 2
H dz d
x2
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Extras - Theory
(ds = 0) for a light ray co-moving distance

Z z
rem(z) =
H 1(z 0) dz 0
(k = 0)
Luminosity Distance
dL(z) =
L
4F
= (1 + z)
H 1(z 0) dz 0
Distance Modulus
= m M = 5 log10(dL/10pc)
Magnitude
m = 2.5 log10(F/F0)
M = m at 10pc
Solve GR field equations in FRW metric

H2 =
where i = M, R, vac
2
a
a
8G X
3
k
a2
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Extras - Theory
Einsteins cosmological constant = 8Gvac
c =
3H02
8G
4 1047 GeV4
Assume sources are perfect fluids

T = diag[, P, P, P ]
Equation of State (EOS) parameter
wi Pi/i
controls the evolution of i
For constant wi
i (1 + z)3(1+wi)
where wM = 0, wR = 1/3, and wvac = w = 1

Now
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Extras - Theory
H2 =
2
a
a
where i = i/c
and
a
4G X
3
= H02
X
i
(i + Pi) =
ia3(1+wi)
H02 X
2
k
a2
i(1 + 3wi)
When radiation and matter dominate, wi > 0, gravity slows expansion

For wi < 1/3, gravity is repulsive, expansion accelerates
Parametrization for DE
w = w0 + wa(1 a)
M = 0.27, = 0.73, R = 8 104, b = 0.04, CDM = 0.22
Experiment
b
CDM
WMAP5
0.0438 0.0012 0.213 0.012 0.74 0.03
WMAP5 + BAO + SN 0.0456 0.0012 0.227 0.006 0.726 0.015
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Extras - Theory
H2 =
2
a
a
where i = i/c
and
a
4G X
3
= H02
X
i
(i + Pi) =
ia3(1+wi)
H02 X
2
k
a2
i(1 + 3wi)
When radiation and matter dominate, wi > 0, gravity slows expansion

For wi < 1/3, gravity is repulsive, expansion accelerates
Parametrization for DE
w = w0 + wa(1 a)
M = 0.27, = 0.73, R = 8 104, b = 0.04, CDM = 0.22
Experiment
b
CDM
WMAP5
0.0438 0.0012 0.213 0.012 0.74 0.03
WMAP5 + BAO + SN 0.0456 0.0012 0.227 0.006 0.726 0.015
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Extras - Theory
A = 2.5 log10(F /F0) a
(s0) ds0
E(B V ) = AB AV = AV /RV
RV (aB/aV 1)1
f
Xhost
= Af 0 (f 0 + f 0 /RV )AV
RV = 3.1
AV exp(AV / )
SALT-II parameters
RV = 2.18 0.5
= 0.334 0.088
x0 x1 c
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Forecasting Cosmology Constraints with Type Ia Supernovae

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Forecast of Cosmology constraints

using Type Ia Supernovae and photometric typing

ISAAC - IIT Symposium on Astrophysics, Astronomy and

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Example of FoM changes

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Accelerated expansion of the Universe

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Accelerated expansion of the Universe

How are measurements done?

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Accelerated expansion of the Universe

Example of a Type Ia supernova (SNe)

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Spectroscopy and photometry

Example of spectroscopic analysis

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Spectroscopy and photometry

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Spectroscopy and photometry

Photometric example of light curves in the G R I and Z bands.

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

First example of standardization from Perlmutter (2003) Physics Today

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

My paper & poster for AAS 222nd Meeting

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Motivation and the Dark Energy Survey (DES)

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Defining a Figure of Merit

Premise to the Figure of Merit (FoM)

The Dark Energy Task Force (DETF)

Where w0 is todays value and wa is

The confidence contours on these two

Where L := L(|) is the likelihood,

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Defining a Figure of Merit

Definition of Figure of Merit (FoM)

Where the ellipse is obtained from the

Eda Gjergo (IIT/ANL)

Above is an example of two FoMs: the

Cosmology with Type Ia supernovae

Factors changing FoM