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Markikina Fault
Multiple large earthquakes in the past 1500 years on a fault in metropolitan Manila, The Philippines
(published in the Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 2000, vol. 90, p. 73-85)
Alan R. Nelson
Stephen F. Personius
Geologic Hazards Team, Central Region U.S. Geological Survey, MS 966
PO Box 25046,
Denver, Colorado 80225, USA Rolly E. Rimando
Raymundo S. Punongbayan
Norman Tugol
Hannah Mirabueno
Ariel Rasdas
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology,
University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City,
The Philippines
Figure 1
ABSTRACT
The first 14C-based paleoseismic study of an active fault in The Philippines shows that a right-lateral fault
on the northeast edge of metropolitan Manila poses a greater seismic hazard than previously thought.
Stratigraphic, soil, and 14C data from exposures across the northern part of the west Marikina Valley fault
indicate a recurrence interval of 200-400 years for magnitude 6-7 earthquakes on the fault. Stratigraphic
relations among faults and silty hillslope colluvium, gravelly stream-channel alluvium, and cobbly debris-flow
deposits exposed in trenches-and three reddish, clay-rich B soil horizons developed on those depositsrecord three surface-faulting events. AMS 14C ages on detrital charcoal constrain the entire stratigraphic
sequence to the past 1300-1700 years, and clay-rich soils point to earthquake recurrence intervals of >200
years. Minimal soil development and modern 14C ages from colluvium overlying a faulted debris-flow
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deposit in a nearby stream exposure show that the most recent, fourth faulting event is historic, probably
dating from the past 200 years.
INTRODUCTION
Recent assessment of the earthquake hazard posed by crustal faults in cities such as Los Angeles and
Seattle, and the economic and human loss resulting from recent damaging earthquakes in Northridge,
California, and Kobe, Japan highlight the need for evaluating potentially active crustal faults in urban areas.
Manila--with a metropolitan population of about 10 million--is similarly subject to earthquakes on nearby
crustal faults, as well as earthquakes on more distant plate-boundary faults (Fig. 1A). The city has been
heavily damaged by earthquakes at least six times in the past 400 years, but the specific sources for the
earthquakes are uncertain. The Marikina Valley fault system, on the northeastern edge of the Manila
metropolitan area (Metro Manila, Figs. Fig. 1A and Fig. 2A), is a likely source one or more of these
earthquakes. Determining the rate of recurrence of large earthquakes on these shallow crustal faults is
critical for estimating the strength and probability of future earthquake ground motions in the metropolitan
area.
Figure 2
Over the past two decades, detailed stratigraphic studies of sediments displaced by recent faulting have
become a standard means of reconstructing the magnitude and recurrence of past earthquakes on surfacerupturing faults. Unfortunately, such fault assessment techniques have rarely been applied in many areas
where they might yield maximum benefits--the rapidly growing urban areas of developing countries. In The
Philippines, interest in seismic hazard assessment was stimulated by the 1990 magnitude 7.8 earthquake in
northern Luzon (Fig. 1A). Scarps raised during this earthquake were trenched by Daligdig, Nakata and
others to determine the history of earthquakes on that branch of the Philippine fault system. In 1991
PHIVOLCS staff used a trench across the east Marikina Valley fault (Fig. 2A) to show recent lateral and
thrust (?) movement on that fault, but because no radiocarbon-datable material was found earthquake
recurrence on the fault could not be determined.
In 1995-96 we made the most successful attempt to determine earthquake recurrence on a hazardous fault
in The Philippines-the westernmost fault in the Marikina Valley system, which lies only 10 km east of central
Manila (Fig. 2A). Stratigraphic, soils, and 14C data obtained from trenches and stream bank exposures at
the Maislap trench site show that a northern splay of the west Marikina Valley fault (Fig. 2A) has produced
at least four large earthquakes in the past 1300-1700 years. Such a history suggests a rate of slip several
times greater than might be expected from a fault with less than 30 km of physiographic expression located
more than 60 km from active plate boundaries (Fig. 1A).
Figure 3
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Figure 4
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-long northern half of the west Marikina Valley fault, whose trace is marked by young, fault-related
landforms, corresponds with earthquakes of this size. Although there is a possibility that a much longer
section of the fault ruptured during earthquakes as large as magnitude 7.5, landforms suggesting repeated
rupture of the west Marikina Valley fault southward beyond the Pasig River have yet to be identified (Fig.
1B). The geomorphically expressed trace of the east Marikina Valley fault is even shorter (18 km long), so
the chance of an earthquake larger than magnitude 7 on the faults of the Marikina Valley system seems
small.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This project was conceived by S. T. Algermissen as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Worldwide
Earthquake Risk Management program. Algermissen also obtained funding for the project from the U.S.
Agency for International Development--The Philippines (Technical Resources Project No. 492-0432). R.S.
Punongbayan obtained further funding from the Philippine Department of Public Works and the insurance
industry in Manila (primarily backhoe support, PHIVOLCS salaries, and supplies). We thank David Nelson
and Jos Garzon of U.S. AID in Manila for being strong advocates of our work. Takashi Nakata (Hiroshima
University, Japan) identified the Maislap trench site during earlier geomorphic mapping projects and
encouraged us to trench it. Chris Newhall (USGS, Vancouver, Washington), and Donald Wells, Andy
Thomas, and Tom Bullard (all with Geomatrix Consultants, San Francisco) gave valuable advice and loaned
us equipment. Lee-Ann Bradley prepared Figures 1-5 and Carol Prentice and Michael Machette provided
helpful reviews. We especially thank Rodolfo Alito and his family for two months of generous hospitality, for
permission to dig up their rice paddies, and for hiring and supervising laborers at the site.
U.S. Department of the Interior | U.S. Geological Survey
URL: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/pacnw/paleo/manila/index.php
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