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BY RAVI KANT JAIN
olatility is both the boon and bane of all traders — The result corresponds closely to the percentage price
you can’t live with it and you can’t really trade change of the stock.
without it.
Most of us have an idea of what volatility is. We usually 2. Calculate the average day-to-day changes over a certain
think of “choppy” markets and wide price swings when the period. Add together all the changes for a given period (n) and
topic of volatility arises. These basic concepts are accurate, but calculate an average for them (Rm):
they also lack nuance.
Volatility is simply a measure of the degree of price move- Rt
ment in a stock, futures contract or any other market. What’s
necessary for traders is to be able to bridge the gap between the Rm = n n
simple concepts mentioned above and the sometimes confus-
ing mathematics often used to define and describe volatility. 3. Find out how far prices vary from the average calculated
But by understanding certain volatility measures, any trad- in Step 2. The historical volatility (HV) is the “average vari-
er — options or otherwise — can learn to make practical use of ance” from the mean (the “standard deviation”), and is esti-
volatility analysis and volatility-based strategies. We’ll explore mated as:
these volatility calculations and discuss how to use them.
Rt - Rm 2
There are two main measures of volatility: historical volatility
HV = n-1
and implied volatility.
Historical volatility is the measure of a stock’s price move- 4. Express volatility as an annual percentage. To annualize
ment based on historical prices. It measures how active a stock the historical volatility, the above result is multiplied by the
price typically is over a certain period of time. Usually, histor- square root of 252 (the average number of trading days in a
ical volatility is measured by taking the daily (close-to-close) year). For example, if you calculated the 10-day historical
percentage price changes in a stock and calculating the average volatility using Steps 1-4 and the result was 20 percent, this
over a given time period. This average is then expressed as an would mean that if the volatility present in the market over
annualized percentage. Historical volatility is often referred to that 10-day period holds constant for the next year, the market
as actual volatility or realized volatility. could be expected to vary 20 percent from it current price.
Short-term or more active traders tend to use shorter time Sometimes historical volatility is estimated by “ditching the
periods for measuring historical volatility, the most common mean” and using the following formula:
being five-day, 10-day, 20-day and 30-day. Intermediate-term
and long-term investors tend to use longer time periods, most
commonly 60-day, 180-day and 360-day. Rt 2
HV= n
There’s some unavoidable math involved here, but under-
standing the concepts is the important thing, since you’ll never The latter formula for historical volatility is statistically
have to calculate historical volatility by hand — any piece of called a non-centered approach. Traders commonly use it
analytical software will do it for you. because it is closer to what would actually affect their profits
and losses. It also performs better when n is small or when
To calculate historical volatility: there is a strong trend in the stock in question.
1. Measure the day-to-day price changes in a market. In other words, historical volatility measures how far price
Calculate the natural log of the ratio (Rt) of a stock’s price (S) swings over a given period tend to stray from a mean or aver-
from the current day (t) to the previous day (t-1): age value. Table 1 (p. xx) illustrates how the 10-day historical
volatility is calculated (using both methods above) for America
Rt = LN
( )St
St - 1
Online (AOL) prices from Dec. 9 to Dec. 23, 1999. The resulting
historical volatilities of approximately 52 and 54 percent sug-
continued on p. x
continued on p. x
Although the market consolidated in October 2000 after falling from its
highs, implied volatility made new highs that month, suggesting nervousness
about the stock’s prospects. The market subsequently tumbled to new lows. 100 call, short the 110) on a stock trading
Nortel (NT), daily
at 100. If the stock rises to 110 or above,
90 you may wish to take profits on the
spread. But at 110, your short option
80 with the 110 strike price is at the money
and, thus, has the maximum exposure to
change in volatility. If the implied
70 volatility for this stock has risen with the
market move, then you will be buying
60 back the 110 call at a higher volatility
than when you put the spread on. This
will eat into your profits on the spread.
50 However, if the implied volatility has
fallen, it will be in your favor.
40 When executing a call or put spread,
you want to look for stocks whose
implied volatility tends to fall as the
30 stock moves up (for a call spread) or
Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
2000 2001 down (for a put spread). Looking again
140% at Figure 1, it is clear that buying put
spreads would not have been advisable,
but buying call spreads would have
120%
been, as the implied volatility always
seems to come off a bit when the stock
rises.
100%
80%
One trap traders using volatility analysis
tend to fall into is interpreting volatility
60% itself as a directional indicator. High or
low volatility by itself does not imply a
certain direction or expected direction of
40% the stock.
However, careful analysis of volatility
patterns, combined with other indicators
20% and stock movements, can lead to some
30-day HV IV Index mean interesting direction-based trading
strategies. Different stocks behave differ-
Source: iVolatility.com ently, but in many cases, implied volatil-
ity tends to be a leading indicator of
in lieu of buying the stock at a certain level. stock direction.
Volatility analysis can help the decision-making process for When a stock is falling, every trader is looking for an indi-
this strategy. Stocks whose implied volatility tends to spike cation of whether the stock will continue in that direction or
when the stock falls may not be good candidates for writing whether it will stabilize and present a possible buying oppor-
puts, because if you change your mind and want to exit the tunity. When a stock is declining and the implied volatility
position, it could be very expensive. On the other hand, if a does not change (or falls), it suggests the market is not too
stock is dropping but implied volatility is not changing much, nervous about the stock. On the other hand, if the implied
it may be a good candidate to write puts on, as the market is volatility rises, it means the market continues to be nervous
not suggesting nervousness about the stock. about the stock’s downside potential.
Choosing call and put spreads. Call spreads (bull spreads) This is shown in Figure 3 (above). In July 2000, although
and put spreads (bear spreads) — simultaneously going long Nortel (NT) shot to new highs and broke technical levels, the
and short a put or call — are popular options strategies, as they implied volatility did not jump much, signaling lukewarm
offer a cheap way to take advantage of an anticipated price confidence in the move. But when the stock dropped off
move in the stock. The problem many traders have found is sharply in September, implied volatility made new highs,
that the returns are sometimes not so attractive when exiting showing nervousness by the market. In October, even though
the spread. This is typically because of the volatility effect. the stock seemed to be trying to consolidate, the implied
For example, say you bought a 100/110 call spread (long the
continued on p. x