State of Renewable Energy

Danish Energy Seminar

Dirksen Senate Office Building – Washington, DC
November 14, 2006
Michael Eckhart, President
American Council On Renewable Energy
www.acore.org
 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

2
ACORE’s 375 Members

3
 ACORE’s Mission and Scope
Mission: As a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt organization:

“… to assume responsibility for the success of renewable energy

in America”

“…to bring renewable energy into the mainstream of America’s

economy and lifestyle”

“…to be for renewable energy and against nothing”

ACORE encompasses all renewable energy options:

- Solar energy - Biomass energy and fuels
- Wind power - Geothermal energy
- Hydropower / ocean - Waste-to-energy

In all forms of energy:

- Electricity - End use thermal energy
- Fuels - Hydrogen

Focusing on four strategic themes:

- Markets - International
- Finance - Policy
4
 Trade Show for Industry and Markets
“POWER-GEN Renewable Energy & Fuels”
Produced with Pennwell
March 6-8, 2007

Opening Session Dan Reicher

Exhibit Hall 5
 Finance
Renewable Energy Finance Forum–Wall Street
Produced with Euromoney at the Waldorf-Astoria in New York
June 21-22, 2007

6
 Trade
Great Wall Renewable Energy Forum
Beijing, China
October 23-26, 2006

Executive Tours:

Pre: Wind Companies

Post: Solar Companies 7
 Policy Conference
“Renewable Energy in America - Phase II”
November 29-30, 2006
Cannon Caucus Room, Washington, DC

8
 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

9
 World and US Oil Dilemma
End of an Era … Beginning of an Era

PEAK OIL

NATIONAL
SECURITY

10
 Environment and Climate Change
End of an Era … Beginning of an Era

Changes in Atmospheric Concentrations - 1000 Year History

concentration CO2
360
310

Atmospheric
340

(ppm)
320 290
Source:
NREL
300
1000 1200 1400 1600
1000 1800
1200 2000
1400 1000
1600 1200
1800 1400
2000 1600 1800 2000
280 270

260

250

11
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)
 Renewable Energy Cost Trends
Levelized cost of energy in constant 2005$1

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt)

1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. November 2005.

12
 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

13
 State of the Global RE Market
160,000 MW Installed Growing at 25 GW/Year
“NEW RENEWABLES” Plus:
2004 INSTALLED BASE (000 MW)
160 720 GW Large Hydro
140 Solar
Geothermal 220 GW (th) Biomass
120 Heating
Biomass
100 Windpower 28 GW (th) Geothermal
80 Small Hydro Heating
60
77 GW (th) Solar Heating
40
1 GW of off-grid solar
20 PV systems
0
World DCs EU 25 US Japan Source: Renewables 2005: Global Status Report

14
 Global Investment in Clean Energy
2005: $48.9 Billion/year

$7.0bn $48.9bn
$21.9bn*

$6.0bn $20.0bn
$7.0bn

$4.9bn*
$2.1bn*

VC/PE Public Corporate Gov’t Technology & Asset Small-scale Total

markets RD&D R&D Equipment finance projects investment

Figures marked * are based on New Energy Finance Desktop databases; all other figures are industry estimates
based on various sources. Source: New Energy Finance 15
Leadership for Renewable Energy
European Union Policies

Green Certificates
Feed-in Tariffs
Capital grants, Tax relief …
Obligation
Tradable certificates

16
 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

17
 Denmark
Early Leader in Windpower

18
 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

19
 China
New Renewable Energy Law Effective 1-1-2006

China’s Power Plan

(Gigawatts)

Year Total RE
2010 650 60
2020 950 120

20
Following the Great Wall Conference in Beijing …
Tour of Chinese Solar Companies
October 27-31, 2006

21
 Following the Great Wall Conference in Beijing …
Tour of Chinese Solar Companies
October 27-31, 2006
Shanghai:
• TopSolar Green Energy Company
• Solar Energy Science & Technology

Wuxi:
• Suntech Solar Energy Company

Suzhou:
• Canadian Solar Inc.

Wuhan:
• Jingwei - solar thermal company
• Rixin Technology Co., Ltd.

Shenzhen:
• Jiawei Solar PV Co. Ltd.
Shanghai • Sunshine Electronics Co. Ltd.
• Trony Solar Science & Tech Co., Ltd.
• Gianteam Solar Energy Co., Ltd.
22
 Chinese Solar PV Company

Shanghai Solar S&T Co, Ltd.

• 100 MW/year Modules
• 10 MW/year Cells

23
Chinese Solar Water Heater Company

24
Pollution – Chinese Style

25
 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

26
The Challenge of Putting RE into Use
- Regional Resources, Economics, and Politics -
SOLAR ENERGY WIND POWER

GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS

Resource Potential
27
 Renewable Portfolio Standards
20 States + DC with RPS, + 2 with Goals

MT: 15% by 2015 NY: 25% by 2013

MN: 1,125 MW wind by 2010 ME: 30% by 2000
WI: 2.2% by 2011 MA: 15% by 2020
RI: 4% by 2008

*CT: 4% by 2008
IA: 105 MW PA:18% by 2020
CA: 20%by 2017
*NJ : 6.5% by 2008
*NV: 15% by 2013 DE: 20% by 2019

MD: 7.5% by 2019

*AZ: 1.1%by 2007
CO: 10% by 2015 DC: 11% by 2022
*NM: 10% by 2011
TX: 2,880 MW by 2009 State RPS

HI: 20% by 2020 Non-punitive goals

Prospects

Source: IREC, DSIRE Database 28

 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

29
 Wholesale Power Generation
US Wind Power
US Wind Power Installations
(MW/Year)
3500

3000
Installed
2500 RPS Required
New
2000

1500

1000 9,700 MW Installed Base 2005

500 Market Drivers:

. Production Tax Credit
0 . Renewable Portfolio Standard
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
35,000 MW estimated by 2015
Sources: AWEA (actual) and ACORE (forecast)
30
 Location of US Windfarms
Per capita income in 1999
45,000

25,000

5,000

Status
Completed
Proposed
Speculative
Under development

31
 Location of US Windfarms
Per capita income in 1999
45,000

25,000

5,000

Status
Completed
Proposed
Speculative
Under development

32
 Other Wholesale Power Generation
Geothermal, Hydropower, and
Solar Thermal-Electric
Solar Dish-
Sterling:
850 MW
Contracts

2,000 MW Projects
Solar Trough:
64 MW
Under
Construction

Incremental hydro 33
 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

34
Solar PV

35
 Distributed Generation
World Solar PV Market
Global Solar PV Production
(MW/Year)
2000
Annual Installations in 2005:
Grid
Off-Grid Germany: 750 MW/Year
1500
Japan: 350 MW/Year
California: 100 MW/Year
1000

500 Key Issue = Silicon

shortage until 2008
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Sources: PV News and ACORE
36
 Distributed Generation
US Solar PV Market
US Solar PV Installations
(MW/Year)
400
350 Grid
300 Off-Grid

250
200
Market Drivers:
150 . US 30% tax credit – needs extension
100 . States with solar subsidies
. Environmental ethic
50 . California $3.2 Billion program
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Sources: PV News and ACORE 37

 US PV Market Driver #1
Net Metering Rules

State-wide net metering for certain utility types

Net metering offered by one or more individual utilities
Source: IREC, DSIRE Database 38
 US PV Market Driver #2
Grants & Rebates
( $/W or % of costs)

25% $4-5
$4 $2
$5-6 $5
$3.90/$2.25
SE-PA:
$4/W+ $1/kWh
for 1 yr.
$2.80

$5.50
50%

Austin $5.00
Utility PV Rebates
Source: IREC, DSIRE Database
39
 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

40
 Ethanol
2005 Outlook
Million Gallons / Year
12000

10000

8000
RFS Obligation:
7.5 BGY by 2012
6000

4000

Biofuel options:
2000
• Corn-based ethanol fuel
0
• Cellulosic ethanol fuel
1990 2000 2010 • Bio-diesel fuel
41
 Ethanol Industry
2006 Outlook
Million Gallons / Year
12000 • Over 100 production
plants in 21 states,
10000
plus;
8000 – 40+ new projects
– 10-12 expansions
6000
• New Outlook:
4000 – 7.5 BGY by 2007-2008
– 10 BGY by 2010
2000

0
1990 2000 2010
42
Revolutionary Opportunity is at our Doorstep
Biofuels + Hybrid Engines
Biofuels + Hybrid Engines =
50 – 100 mpg of fuel
300–600 mpg of gasoline

2003 Toyota Prius 2006 Toyota Prius

47 mpg 51 mpg

43
Revolutionary Opportunity is at our Doorstep
Biofuels + Hybrid Engines
Biofuels + Hybrid Engines =
50 – 100 mpg of fuel
300–600 mpg of gasoline

2003 Toyota Prius 2006 Toyota Prius

47 mpg 51 mpg

Mike Eckhart’s Two Family Cars 44

 Topics
1. ACORE
2. Fundamental drivers
3. Global perspective
• Global
• Denmark
• China
4. US markets
• Key issues
• Windpower
• Solar PV
• Biofuels
5. Outlook

45
Renewable Energy Targets and Forecasts
% of Total Energy
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Global Perspectives A3 Germany
Today (Global) IEA World Energy Outlook Ref
Shell Dynamics (Global) European Union
Navigant (Global) Today (US)
Source:
Pew Tech Triumphs Policy (US) Aitkin (US)
NREL
GHG (Hoffert) GPRA05 EERE (US)
EIA Reference (US) 46
Renewable Energy Targets and Forecasts
% of Total Energy
60%
50%
CLIMATE CHANGE
40%
30%
20%
10%
USG
0%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Global Perspectives A3 Germany
Today (Global) IEA World Energy Outlook Ref
Shell Dynamics (Global) European Union
Navigant (Global) Today (US)
Source:
Pew Tech Triumphs Policy (US) Aitkin (US)
NREL
GHG (Hoffert) GPRA05 EERE (US)
EIA Reference (US) 47
 World Energy Supply Scenario
1500 Royal Dutch Shell
Surprise
Sustained Growth Scenario Geothermal
1996
Solar
1000
Exajoules

Biofuels
TODAY
Wind

Nuclear
1500 Hydro
Gas

Oil & NGL

Coal

0 Traditional
Biomass
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Source: Royal Dutch Shell, 1995. 48
LS-CD-b136501
 Thank You
www.acore.org
Michael Eckhart
American Council On Renewable Energy
meckhart@acore.org