February 2015

www.CenterCityPhila.org

A publication of the
Central Philadelphia
Development Corporation
and the Center City District
660 Chestnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19106
215.440.5500

CenterCityReports: Housing

Sustaining Momentum
Residential construction in Greater
Center City maintained a very strong
pace in 2014 as 1,983 new units were
brought to market, down nominally
from the record level of 2,168 in
2013. This new supply included 1,358
apartments, 183 condominiums, and
442 single-family homes, with the
share of for-sale units increasing from
18% in 2013 to 32% in 2014. Nearly
all indicators suggest that demand
has kept pace with supply and can
support the additional units now under
construction. While national economic
cycles will frame the big picture,
regional demographic trends favor
downtown for at least the next five
years. Philadelphias ability to absorb
all the projects announced, but not
yet underway, is largely contingent on
the ability of local political, business
and civic leadership to create a path
to more robust job growth and reliable
funding for schools.

Daniel Cox

1616 Walnut Street, now Icon, is one of scores of older buildings that have been
converted to residential use since 1997, adding new vitality to Center City sidewalks.

Greater Center City Completed Residential Units

Figure 1: Completed Units by Type, 2000 to 2014

2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2000

2001

Single Family

2002

2003
Condos

2004

2005

Apartment

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Developments Database, Center City District

Housing
Residential development in Core
Center City was almost entirely
multifamily rental, as apartments
comprised 647 of the 665 (97%)
units of the new supply, with 74%
concentrated west of Broad Street.
The mix of developments in Extended
Center City was more evenly split
between 711 apartments and 607
ownership units (172 condos and 435
single-family homes) with distribution
evenly split between neighborhoods
north of Vine Street and south of
Pine Street.1
New supply in the Core was highly
concentrated in a handful of large
apartment projects, with two
developments, 1900 Arch (248 units)
and Icon (206 units), accounting for
approximately two-thirds of new
supply (see Figure 2). Development
in the southern portion of Extended
Center City was composed mostly of
smaller infill projects with significant
activity west of Broad in Point Breeze.
Larger projects south of Pine Street
include the SouthStar Lofts (85
apartments) on South Broad, the
Wharton Street Lofts (45 apartments)

New construction at 1900 Arch Street provides residents with the primary advantage
of downtown living: the ability to walk to work, arts, cultural, restaurant and retail
attractions. Credit: Philamedia

in East Passyunk, and the Toll

Brothers development at 24th and
South (68 townhouses). Development
north of Vine Street was characterized
by a mix of infill and medium-scale
projects. Larger projects include The
Penthouses at Penn Treaty Village (224
apartments in two phases) and the
affordable housing development JBJ

Figure 2: Completed Units by Area, 2014

Area

Apartment

Condo

Single Family

Total

Core

647

11

665

West of Broad

479

480

East of Broad

168

11

185

Extended

711

172

435

1,318

West of Broad

192

108

223

523

East of Broad

519

64

212

795

North

415

127

151

693

West of Broad

106

83

15

204

East of Broad

309

44

136

489

South

296

45

284

625

West of Broad

86

25

208

319

East of Broad

210

20

76

306

1,358

183

442

1,983

Greater Center City

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

Soul Homes (55 apartments). There

were also a number of smaller condo
projects just west of Broad, including
the 24-unit Vineyards at 16th Street.
HOMEOWNERSHIP DEMAND
The shift toward production of forsale housing, with 625 new units
in 2014, was supported by strong
and consistent demand. A total of
2,772 homes were sold by brokers in
Greater Center City in 2014, almost
identical to the number sold in 2013
(2,797 homes).2 The average sales
price in Greater Center City increased
by 6% between 2013 and 2014, while
the speed at which properties sold
continued to accelerate. Between
2012 and 2013, there was almost an
18% decline in the number of days

1. CCD tracks print and online accounts of residential construction

projects in Greater Center City and verifies their status and degree
of completion through periodic on-site surveys. Units are counted
as in progress when there is visual evidence of construction
activity and completed when construction activity has been
completed and units are available. This report is based on a site
survey completed in December 2014.
2. As recorded in the Multiple Listing Service, which covers
transactions handled by real estate brokers.

Housing
Figure 3: Completed Units, 2014
GIRARD AVE
Greater Center City

SPRING GARDEN ST

Size
1-5
6-25

VINE ST

26-50

Center City Core

51-100
101-200
MARKET ST

201-999

Color
Apartment
Condo
Single Family

PINE ST

BROAD ST

WASHINGTON AVE

TASKER ST
Source: Developments Database - CCD

Core Center City is bound by Vine and Pine Streets. Extended Center City includes neighborhoods between Vine and Girard and those
between Pine and Tasker. The combined area is termed Greater Center City.

a property remained on the market;

between 2013 and 2014 there was
another 14% drop. The highest
volume of sales occurred in the
southern portion of extended Center
City, particularly west of Broad Street,
while the highest prices were attained
in the Core, particularly east of Broad
Street. On average, homes that were
sold in the extended neighborhoods
were 39% less expensive than those
in the Core.

Sales tracked by Econsult Solutions,

Inc. in an area quite similar to the
CCD/CPDC definition of Greater Center
City3 show a long-term positive trend
with the market fully recovering from
the recession as the median sale price
per square foot surpassed $300 for the
first time in 2014. The 10-year trend in
median price per square foot shows an
increase from $262 to $307. Over the
same period, the median home price
rose from $330,000 to $420,000.

IS THERE SUFFICIENT
RENTAL DEMAND?
Despite a steady, increasing supply
of new units, asking rents on a persquare-foot basis increased nearly
everywhere in Greater Center City in
2014. While rents were highest in the
3. Econsult Solutions definition of Center City corresponds to
that used by the Philadelphia City Planning Commission and is
essentially Core Center City with nearly all of the extended portion
to the north (roughly to Poplar Street) and half of the Extended
Portion to the South (roughly to Washington Avenue). Our larger
definition is based on the significant percentage of residents in
these neighborhoods who work in Center City.

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

Housing
Core, closest to places of employment,
price appreciation was greatest in
neighborhoods on the emerging edges
of Greater Center City up 17% in
Point Breeze ($1.07 to $1.25), 14% in
Callowhill/Poplar ($1.50 to $1.71), and
11% in Grays Ferry ($0.81 to $0.90).
The only neighborhood showing any
decrease was around Rittenhouse
Square, where rents, while still
commanding the highest prices in
Greater Center City, declined by 5%
(from $2.60 to $2.47). This modest
drop might be explained by the fact
that the adjacent surge of new supply
may have softened demand for existing
product in this most densely settled
area of Center City.
Advertised asking rents do not capture
any rent concessions that may be
offered by landlords to retain or attract
tenants in a highly competitive market.
But conversations with three major
owners of Center City apartments
did not suggest any softening or rent
concessions in 2014. This is borne
out by Delta Associates year-end,
Philadelphia Class A Market Report.
Delta surveys what they term a
statistically significant sample of
larger buildings constructed since

Figure 4: 2014 Completed Projects with 20 or More Units

Name/Address

Type

Location

Units

1900 Arch St

Apartment

Core--West

248

Icon

Apartment

Core--West

206

Penn Treaty Village

Apartment

Extended--NE

224

Southstar Lofts

Apartment

Extended--SE

85

2400 South (Phase I)

Single Family

Extended--SW

68

John C. Anderson Apartments

Apartment

Core--East

56

JBJ Soul Homes

Apartment

Extended--NW

55

Wharton Street Lofts

Apartment

Extended--SE

45

The Pottery

Apartment

Core--East

43

Sanctuary Lofts

Apartment

Extended--SW

38

1108-30 N Front

Single Family

Extended--NE

27

Vineyards at 16

Condo

Extended--NW

24

Pressman Commons

Single Family

Extended--NE

21

1244 Ridge Ave

Apartment

Extended--NE

20

253 N 2nd St

Apartment

Core--East

20

826-34 N 3rd

Single Family

Extended--NE

th

20

Total Units in Larger Projects (20 or More Units)

1,200

Total Units in Smaller Projects (Less than 20 Units)

783

Total Units

1,983

1991. They found vacancy rates

inching up from 5.5% to 5.7% between
December 2013 and December 2014,
while rents rose by 3.7% in the same
period. Looking forward over the
next 36 months, they project vacancy
edging up slightly with rent growth

moderating. But they see those

trends as temporary, concluding
we expect Center City to remain
a healthy market.4

4. Delta Associates, Year-End 2014, Philadelphia Class A Market

Report, December 2014, page 20.

Figure 5: Brokered Residential Sales

Area

Sales 13

Sales 14

Change

Avg Price 13

Avg Price 14

Change

DOM 13

DOM 14

Change

Core

767

741

-3%

$564,746

$597,875

6%

105

91

-13%

East

440

409

-7%

$638,796

$703,047

10%

110

94

-15%

West

327

332

2%

$465,107

$468,311

1%

98

87

-11%

2,030

2,031

0%

$340,477

$363,486

7%

72

62

-14%

620

666

7%

$361,444

$355,948

-2%

79

70

-11%

Extended
North
East

198

224

13%

$366,953

$383,458

4%

107

80

-25%

West

422

442

5%

$358,859

$342,007

-5%

66

65

-2%

1,410

1,365

-3%

$331,257

$367,164

11%

69

58

-16%

621

584

-6%

$368,764

$419,419

14%

72

60

-17%

South
East
West
Greater CC

789

781

-1%

$301,736

$328,089

9%

67

57

-15%

2,797

2,772

-1%

$401,976

$426,142

6%

81

70

-14%

Source: Trend MLS (2015)

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

Housing
An important gauge of equilibrium
is how the number of new units
aligns with the number of people
moving into Center City. Center Citys
population has steadily grown since
the 1990s. Between 2010 and 2013,
the most recent American Community
Survey found that the number of
households in Greater Center City
increased by an average of 1.6% per
year, or approximately 1,375 net new
households per year. Assuming that
rate held constant for 2014, Center
City added 5,622 households between
2010 and 2014. During the same
period of time, CCDs development
survey counted an increase of 5,269
new housing units, suggesting
that recent construction was fully
supported by market demand. If the
2010 to 2013 annual growth rate of
1.6% is projected forward, Greater
Center City could add another 6,226
new households between 2015
and 2018.

Medial
Price per
Square
(2005-2014)
Figure
6: Median
Price
per Foot
Square
Foot, 2005-2014
$320
$307

$310
$300
$290
$280

$262

$270
$260
$250
$240
Source: Econsult Solutions, Inc. (2015)

$230
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2012

2013

2014

Center City home prices have completely rebounded from the recession,
surpassing 2007 levels.

Whats in the Pipeline

There are 3,681 more units in progress
in Greater Center City, with the mix of
units closely resembling what has come
on line in recent years: 75% apartments,
15% single-family homes, and 10%
condominiums. In the Core, 90% of units

Figure 7: Median Rent per Square Foot by Neighborhood

Neighborhood

Section

2013

2014

Change

Rittenhouse

Core

$2.60

$2.47

-5%

Waterfront

Core

$1.95

$2.05

5%

Logan Square

Core

$1.95

$2.00

3%

Society Hill

Core

$1.83

$2.00

9%

Washington Square West

Core

$1.97

$2.00

2%

Old City

Core

$1.83

$1.88

3%

Chinatown

Core

$1.75

$1.84

5%

Graduate Hospital

Extended South

$1.62

$1.73

7%

Callowhill / Poplar

Extended North

$1.50

$1.71

14%

Bella Vista

Extended South

$1.58

$1.70

8%

Queen Village

Extended South

$1.59

$1.70

7%

Northern Liberties

Extended North

$1.50

$1.58

5%

Fairmount / Spring Garden

Extended North

$1.52

$1.55

2%

Passyunk Square

Extended South

$1.30

$1.38

6%

Pennsport

Extended South

$1.20

$1.26

5%

Point Breeze

Extended South

$1.07

$1.25

17%

Grays Ferry

Extended South

$0.81

$0.90

11%

Source: Kwelia5 (2015)

2010

under construction are apartments,

while half of units in the Extended area
are for sale. If the rate of household
growth continues at its current pace,
demand should support appropriatelypriced supply, varying somewhat by
location, so long as the delivery of these
units is relatively evenly spaced over the
next 12 to 36 months.
LOCATION, LOCATION
There are 17 projects with 50 units or
more currently under construction.
These larger projects, 86% of which
are apartments, account for 2,446
(66%) of the 3,681 current, inprogress supply. They will add greater
residential density and nighttime
animation in the Core, while continuing
the outward expansion of Center City.
Two of the larger projects will add
substantial new foot traffic and
evening activity to Market Street.
On the 1100 block, East Market,
currently the largest residential
project underway in Greater Center
5. Kwelia scans on-line sources, aggregates listing data, and
applies statistical cleaning and de-duplication algorithms to achieve
accuracy. The medians presented are drawn from Kwelias cleaned
and de-duplicated rental housing dataset and are based on more
than 80,000 total listings over the two-year period.

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

Housing
Figure 8: In-Progress Units by Area
Area

Apartment

Condo

Single Family

Total

Core

1,915

139

65

2,119

West of Broad

665

133

26

824

East of Broad

1,250

39

1,295

Extended

828

235

499

1,562

North

636

89

221

946

West of Broad

490

40

39

569

East of Broad

146

49

182

377

South

192

146

278

616

West of Broad

80

67

100

247

East of Broad

112

79

178

369

2,743

374

564

3,681

Greater Center City

Demand can support supply, so long as the

volume of units underway are delivered to market
relatively evenly over the next three years.
Figure 9: In Progress - Projects with 50 or More Units
Name/Address

Type

Location

East Market (Phase I)

Apartment

CoreEast

Units
322

1919 Market Street

Apartment

CoreWest

321

Rodin Square

Apartment

ExtendedNW

293

1401 Spruce St

Condo

CoreWest

130

One Water Street

Apartment

CoreEast

250

Avenue of the Arts Building

Apartment

CoreEast

220

Avenir

Apartment

CoreWest

175

1112-28 Chestnut Street

Apartment

CoreEast

112

AQ Rittenhouse

Apartment

CoreWest

110

810 Arch Street

Apartment

CoreEast

94

BridgeView - 787 Swanson Street

Single Family

ExtendedSE

75

5th & Fairmount

Single Family/
Apartment

ExtendedNE

66

Shirt Corner - 3rd & Market Streets

Apartment

CoreEast

59

2400 South (Condo Phase)

Condo

ExtendedSW

59

1900 Arch Street (Phase II)

Apartment

CoreWest

55

410 at Society Hill

Condo

ExtendedSE

55

Broad Street Armory

Apartment

ExtendedSE

50

Total Units in Larger Projects (50 or More Units)

2,446

Total Units in Smaller Projects (Less than 50 Units)

1,235

Total Units

3,681

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

City, will add 322 apartments and

substantial ground-floor retail with
a site plan that creates a pedestrian
corridor through to Chestnut Street.
Combined with the redevelopment
of the Gallery at Market East and
with the repositioning of the Mellon
Independence Center these projects
will transform the area between
Independence National Historical
Park and the major convention hotels
over the next three years.
At 20th and Market Streets,
construction has started on 300
rental units on a parcel that long was
thought to be an office site, but quite
near three other major, completed
Market West housing developments.
Nearly 300 more apartments are rising
just north of the Benjamin Franklin
Parkway at Rodin Square, featuring a
newly relocated and expanded Whole
Foods. The Avenue of the Arts Building
at Broad and Chestnut Streets will
replace college dorm space with 220
rental units. Along the waterfront,
new construction in the shadows of
the Benjamin Franklin Bridge will
add 250 residences at One Water
Street. Chestnut Place, 1112-28
Chestnut Street, and AQ Rittenhouse
will increase supply by another 400
units. Toll Brothers is simultaneously
producing two condo projects at either
end of the southern edge of Core
Center City 2400 South and 410 at
Society Hill. Along the Avenue of the
Arts, the conversion of the 21-story,
330,000-square-foot Atlantic Building
at Broad and Spruce Streets will add
another 130 condominium units. The
244 units in these three developments
comprise 65% of the multi-unit forsale housing now underway in Greater
Center City. These developments,
along with two proposed by Dranoff
Properties and one by Scannapieco

Housing
Figure 10: In-Progress Units Map
GIRARD AVE
Greater Center City

SPRING GARDEN ST

Size
1-5
6-25
26-50

VINE ST
Center City Core

51-100
101-200

MARKET ST

201-999

Color
Apartment
Condo
Single Family

WASHINGTON AVE

BROAD ST

PINE ST

TASKER ST

Source: Developments Database - CCD

Development Corporation, suggest

that the condo market is beginning to
pick up momentum now that nearly all
the units that came on line in 20082009 have been absorbed.

Still More Proposed

In addition to the 3,681 units under
construction, there are a significant
number of projects that have been
proposed, including MIC Tower (342),

Hanover North Broad (339), 1601 Vine

Street (277), Art Museum Towers
II (286), Eastern Tower Community
Center (150), SLS International
(125), Divine Lorraine (126), and

The road immediately ahead appears smooth,

but there could be caution signs in the distance.

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

Housing
One Riverside (88). Not all projects
may move to construction, but if the
hypothetical steady growth projection
of demand holds constant, Greater
Center City might, in addition to those
in the pipeline, be able to absorb 2,500
more units between 2015 and 2018.

Means of Transportation to Work Core CC

Figure 11: Means of Transportation to Work - Core Center City
Other
2%

Home
7%

In their typology of market cycles

Recovery, Expansion, Hypersupply, and
Recession - Integra Realty Resources
places the Philadelphia region at the
upper end of the Expansion phase.6
Put simply, the road immediately
ahead appears smooth, but there
could be caution signs in the distance.
The Appeal of Center City
Cultural and lifestyle choices are
favoring transit-oriented, walkable
places. Despite the recent drop in gas
prices, the residential appeal of Center
City remains convenience: the ability to
get to work without a car and to walk
to restaurants, arts, entertainment
and other amenities. In the Core, 39%
of commuters walk to work, while
fully 71% are able to commute to
work without a car. In the extended
neighborhoods, 56% commute without
a car, compared to the balance of the
city where more than 60% rely on
automobiles to get to work. As SEPTA
introduces more customer-friendly
service, bike lanes improve and carsharing, bike-sharing and on-demand
transportation options proliferate, the
number of people choosing to live car
free has increased. Today, between
one-third and one-half of Greater
Center City residents report having no
vehicle in their household.7

Walk
39%

7. A recent study, as reported in the Washington Post (www.

washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/16/theamerican-decline-in-driving-actually-began-way-earlier-thanyou-think), suggests that the decline in driving dates back to
1992 and isnt related to the most recent Great Recession that
began in early 2008.

Public
Transport
19%

Car
29%
Source: 2009-2013 American Community
Survey 5-year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Means of Transportation to Work Extended

Figure 12: Means of Transportation to Work - Extended
Other
2%

Bicycle
7%
Home
4%

Walk
18%

Public
Transport
25%

Car
44%
Source: 2009-2013 American Community
Survey 5-year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 13:
Means
Transportation
Work
Means
of
Transportation
to WorktotoCitywide
Means
ofofTransportation
Work Citywide
- Balance of Philadelphia
Other
1%
Walk
5%

Car
63%
6. Integra Realty Resources ViewPoint 2015,
December 2014, page 12.

Bicycle
4%

Walk
5%

Car
63%

Other
Bicycle
1% 1%
Home
3%

Bicycle
1%
Home
3%

Public
Transport
27%

Public
Transport
27%

Source: 2009-2013
American
Community
Survey
5-year Estimates,
U.S. Census
Bureau
Source:
2009-2013
American
Community
Survey 5-year
Estimates,
U.S. Census Bureau

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

Housing
Houshold Vehicles Available

Figure 14: Households Without Cars

Washington Square

61%

39%

Chinatown

56%

44%

Rittenhouse

54%

46%

Grays Ferry

51%

49%

Point Breeze

48%

52%

Loft District

47%

53%

Logan Square

46%

54%

Passyunk Square

40%

60%

38%

62%

Old City
Graduate Hospital

35%
35%

Pennsport

35%

65%

All of Philadelphia

33%

67%

65%

Bella Vista

30%

70%

Fairmount

29%

71%

Society Hill

29%

71%

Queen Village

23%

77%

Northern Liberties

14%

86%
98%

Waterfront 2%

0%

10%
No Vehicle HH

20%

30%
1+ Vehicle

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

The East Market development will not only add new street-level retail and mid-block connections to Chestnut Street, it will bring new
residents to the upper floors of East Market Street for the first time in significant numbers. Credit: National Real Estate Development

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

Housing
Figure 17: New Movers to Philadelphia by Age
(1 dot = 1 person)
MAP 1

Ages 18-24

BROADER DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Philadelphias large number of
institutions of higher education has
long enabled the city to attract 18 to
24 year olds, including a significant
percent from outside the region. The
concentration of in-movers of this age
(Map 1) corresponds almost exactly
with the location of Philadelphias
education and health campuses.
Historically, those students who
come from the Greater Philadelphia
region have a greater propensity
to stay in the city after graduation
than those from outside the region.
A 2014 Campus Philly survey found
that 76% of natives stayed, while
only 51% of out-of-towners chose to
remain.8 The top reason graduates
cited as their motivation for staying

MAP 2

MAP 3

Ages 25-34

Ages 35-54

was post-graduation job prospects.

Cultural amenities, restaurants and
quality public spaces are factors, but
particularly for those shouldering the
burden of student loans, jobs matter
most. As those prospects declined
during the recent recession, the
number who reported staying for one
year or more after graduation declined
from 61% to 57%.
The residential location of new inmovers to Philadelphia ages 25
to 34 (Map 2) largely reflects the
concentration of employment in a city
where 55% of all jobs are located in
Center City and University City. Center
City is the number-one destination for
in-movers of all ages to Philadelphia,
accounting for 22% (15,033) of the

69,025 new arrivals to the city in 2013.

Center City also dominates in the
attraction of 35 to 54 year olds (Map 3).
University Citys 10,696 new in-movers
bring the cumulative share of these two
employment nodes to 37% of all new
arrivals to Philadelphia in 2013, making
these areas a primary gateway to the
city. Immigration to other portions
of the city and a more even citywide
distribution of those 35 to 54 rounds out
the picture of new arrivals.
CAN WE SUSTAIN DEMAND:
A LOOK AHEAD
Jobs: Philadelphia as a whole has
rebounded slowly from the recession.
While education and healthcare
8. Campus Philly, Choosing Philadelphia, December 2014, page 11.

Thirty-seven percent of all in-movers to Philadelphia

moved into Center City or University City, making
them the primary gateway for new arrivals to the city.

10

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

Housing
Movers
to Philadelphia
by to
agePhiladelphia
by Planning District,
Ages
25+ OnlyDistrict, Ages 25+ Only
Figure
18: Movers
by Age by
Planning
Center City
South
University/South
Lower Northwest
North
Upper Northwest
North Delaware
Upper North
Central Northeast
River Wards
Lower Northeast
Lower Far Northeast
Upper Far Northeast
Lower North

25 to 34

35 to 54

55 and Over

West Park
Lower Southwest
West
Lower South
0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 19: In Migration to Philadelphia, All Ages, Total 69,025

District

Count

Percent

Count

Percent

District

Count

Percent

Center City

15,033

22%

District
Upper North

3,664

5%

River Wards

1,710

2%

University/SW

10,696

15%

Upper Northwest

3,160

5%

Lower Far NE

1,640

2%

Lower North

4,840

7%

West Park

2,893

4%

West

1,510

2%

Lower Northwest

4,754

7%

North Delaware

2,836

4%

Upper Far NE

1,490

2%

South

4,710

7%

Lower Northeast

2,603

4%

Lower Southwest

1,447

2%

North

3,796

5%

Central NE

2,117

3%

Lower South

306

0%

Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

11

Housing
MoverstotoPhiladelphia
Philadelphia All
Planning
District
Figure 20: Movers
AllAges
Agesbyby
Planning
District
Center City
University/South
Lower North
Lower Northwest
South
North
Upper North
Upper Northwest
West Park
North Delaware
Lower Northeast
Central Northeast
River Wards
Lower Far Northeast

1 to 17

18 to 24

25 to 34

35 to 54

55 and Over

West
Upper Far Northeast
Lower Southwest
Lower South
0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

growth in University City and Center

City has been very strong, officeusing, salaried jobs have declined.
Despite the significant positive
exception of Comcast, which will
add several thousand employees
in Center City over the next three
years, Philadelphia office jobs have
declined, even as national trends
have been positive since 2010. Using
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
data, Savills Studley has calculated
that office jobs in Philadelphia
declined from 157,534 in 2000, to
139,836 in 2007, to 132,304 in 2014.9

12

But BLS data only include traditional

wage and salaried employees.
Like many cities, Philadelphia has
shown significant growth among
independent or self-employed
workers, many of whom work from
home, while others make use of
emerging co-working spaces. Only
a portion of these independent
workers are in professions requiring
a college degree. The majority are in
professions requiring no more than a
high-school education. More robust,
traditional job growth remains the
best guarantor of housing demand.

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

Demographics: Millennials,
generally defined as those born
between the early 1980s and 2000,10
have played a major role in the
medias narrative about downtown
revival nationally. The cohort of
Millennials, ages 20 to 34, born
between 1981 and 1995, have now
entered the housing market. In
Philadelphia, this group makes up
47% of the population of Core Center
9. Savills Studley, 2015 Review and Outlook: Whats Ahead for
Commercial Real Estate, January 2015, page 11.
10. The term Millennial has been variously defined by
different researchers.

Housing
Population by Age, 2000 and 2013 - Core CC

Figure 21: Core Center City Population by Age, 2000 and 2013

85+
80 to 84

2000 Population

75 to 79

2013 Population

70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
0 to 4
0

5,000

10,000

15,000

Population by Age, 2000 and 2013 - Core CC

Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 22: Greater Center City Population by Age, 2000 and 2013
85+
80 to 84

2000 Population

75 to 79

2013 Population

70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
0 to 4
0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

City and 36% of the residents of

Extended Center City. But this is not
really a new trend. Younger people
have been attracted to the downtowns
of major American cities since at least
the 1970s, as colleges and medical
schools expanded dramatically during
urban renewal. In 2000, 20 to 34 year
olds made up 45% of the population of
the Core and 27% of the population of
the extended neighborhoods. Until the
post-2000 return of empty-nesters,
the story line was always more a stayin-the-city trend for those who had
come here for college.
But while the age distribution
of downtown residents has not
changed significantly (except for the
substantial, positive growth in emptynesters), the dramatic difference is
that the sheer volume of Millennials
regionally and nationally, has made the
presence of twenty-somethings more
pronounced. As empty-nesters have
joined in, together they have driven
up demand for downtown housing
and pushed outward the boundaries
of Center City. This has set up a very
positive dynamic for housing markets
as Center City has functioned as a
gateway for young renters who then
move outward as homeowners into
the extended neighborhoods and
elsewhere in Philadelphia.
Schools: A substantial portion of the
20 to 34 year olds in 2000 did not age
in place. If they had, figures 21 and 22
would show more 35 to 44 year olds.
In fact, there was a slight drop in the
total number of people in their 40s
in Greater Center City between 2000
and 2013. Two things typically happen
for professionals between their 20s
and their 40s: first, their salaries or
revenues in their businesses rise, and
second, many choose to have children.
But there was also a corresponding

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org

13

Housing
Philadelphia Metropolitan Area Population by Age

Figure 23: Philadelphia Metropolitan Area Population by Age

85+
80 to 84
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
0 to 4
0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

drop in the number of school-age

children in Greater Center City during
the same period. Implementing
competitive tax policies that
encourage more dynamic job growth
by relying less on taxing wages
and business revenues clearly can
contribute to residential retention.
Even more immediate, is the need to
secure adequate and reliable funding
for public schools.
How long can Philadelphia continue to
replenish its downtown with childless
20 to 34 year olds? Figure 23 shows
the total population distribution
for the Philadelphia Metropolitan
Area. Two large demographic bulges
stand out Baby Boomers and
Echo Boomers or Millennials, who
just surpassed their parents as the
nations largest cohort. Sandwiched
between is the comparatively smaller
Generation X.
Immediately behind the current
cohort of Millennials in the housing
market is an equally sized group of 15
to 19 year olds. But then, the cohorts
aged 5 to 9 and 10 to 14 taper down.

Townhouse development has continued to add new residents to nearly all the
neighborhoods of Extended Center City. In 2014, the construction of single-family homes
reached the highest level since 2007.

In the simplest terms, Philadelphia

has another five years of consistent
regional demand from young people
in the pipeline. Then demographics
drop off, unless we grow more
jobs, retain more college students
from other regions and keep more
residents in the city as their incomes
rise. Competitive tax policies and
reliable funding for schools are
the keys, not only to sustainable
downtown housing demand, but also
to the vitality of the entire city.

This report was researched by Garrett Hincken, Rick Way, and Casandra Dominguez; designed by Abigail Saggi; and edited by Linda Harris. Center City District thanks Kwelia, Delta Associates, Econsult
Solutions, Savills Studley, Integra Realty Resources, and the Greater Philadelphia Association of REALTORS for their contributions to this report.

14

Center City District & Central Philadelphia Development Corporation www.CenterCityPhila.org