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2000=100
220
200
180
160
140
120
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
100
Return of Overcapacity
While world steel demand continues to grow, capacity utilization ratio
trends down
No easy solutions to overcapacity in sight
100%
Jun-08
92.7%
90%
Apr-10
84.5%
Apr-11
83.4%
Sep-13
79.3%
80%
Aug-10
74.2%
70%
Dec-12
71.5%
60%
Dec-08
59.9%
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
50%
54
8
11
23
125
156
17
44
81
135
15
42
46
22
Steel
making
(HRC)
230
22
28
78
32
61
35
27
26
1995
2000
2005
10
2011
2017
Mt
y-o-y % growth
Mt
14.0
15
10
1 403
1 219
1 600
1 523
1 400
1 200
1 300
1 219
1 141
7.0
1 430
1 475
125.0*
7.9
1 000
3.1
3.3
2.0
800
600
0.0
400
-5
200
-6.4
-10
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
*) 2014 as % of 2007
2012
2013
2014
12/11
13/12
14/13
2014 as %
of 2007
World
United States
European Union (27)
Japan
China
India
Brazil
ASEAN (5)
MENA
1,430.3
1,475.1
1,523.2
2.0
3.1
3.3
125.0
96.2
96.9
99.8
7.8
0.7
3.0
92.2
140.2
134.9
137.8
-9.5
-3.8
2.1
69.1
63.9
64.0
63.0
-0.2
0.1
-1.6
77.6
660.1
699.7
720.7
2.9
6.0
3.0
172.2
71.6
74.0
78.2
2.6
3.4
5.6
151.8
25.2
26.0
27.0
0.6
3.2
3.8
122.3
54.8
57.3
60.4
12.8
4.6
5.4
149.7
63.2
64.3
69.0
2.2
1.7
7.3
127.2
Developed Economies
Emerging & Developing
Economies excl China
World excl. China
390.2
384.1
390.5
-1.7
-1.6
1.7
82.4
380.0
391.4
412.1
4.2
3.0
5.3
126.0
770.2
775.4
802.6
1.1
0.7
3.5
100.3
9
World
China
Developed Economies
160
140
120
100
80
60
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Developed Economies
41.5%
16.4%
58.5%
46.1%
20.5%
53.9%
48.5%
23.3%
China
51.5%
52.2%
27.4%
47.8%
53.0%
28.3%
47.0%
2005
33.3%
58.3%
41.7%
2006
33.1%
58.4%
41.6%
2007
2008
2009
61.1%
34.3%
38.9%
63.3%
36.7%
48.3%
36.7%
73.7%
26.3%
2010
45.2%
71.3%
28.7%
2011
45.7%
71.7%
28.3%
2012
46.1%
72.7%
27.3%
2013
47.4%
74.0%
26.0%
2014
47.3%
74.4%
25.6%
11
11
12
China
Indonesia
India
United States
Japan
South Korea
1 400
South Korea
488 506
1 200
1 000
305
800
279
222
Japan
220
127
600
China
40
57
400
Africa
United States
200
India
Brazil
Japan
World
10
20
30
40
50
thousands USD
13
14
1 800
1 600
RoW
CAGR 2000-2007
6.6%
1 400
1 200
China
CAGR 1975-2000
1.1%
1 000
former USSR
CAGR 1950-1975
5.0%
800
600
400
200
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
142.6
84.1
51.1
7.4
2000-2007
480.3
74.2
297.8
108.4
2007-2014
320.2
-85.5
314.8
90.9
15
Population
(million)
Urbanisation
(%)
Steel Use/
capita(Kg)
2012
2020
2010
2020
2012
2020
2012
Mexico
116
126
77.8
80.5
14.4
17.3
173
Turkey
75
81
70.5
78.6
14.1
17.9
382
Brazil
198
210
84.3
86.8
11.0
13.8
127
Thailand
70
72
33.7
38.0
9.4
12.9
234
China
1 354
1 388
49.2
61.0
9.0
15.3
488
Indonesia
245
263
49.9
57.2
4.7
6.7
51
India
1 258
1 387
30.9
34.8
3.7
5.7
57
Vietnam
90
96
30.4
36.9
3.4
5.1
122
16
Environmental Challenges
Energy use reduction efforts in developed world already at theoretical limit
and limited progress in Break-Through technologies. Pressure on costs
and also negative impact on steel demand growth
17
Energy
industry
Traffic
HH, ind.,
CTS1
Other renewables2
Efficient transformers
2.1
Efficient e-motors
1.9
Emissions in the
steel production3
29.5
~ 400 : 1
<0.1
32 : 1
0.4
14.2
5.0
0.03
~ 200 : 1
0.1
14 : 1
3:1
0.7
1.0
0.9
1.1 : 1
1.0
9:1
9.2
Combined heat/power
5
10
1.3 : 1
8.4
11.2
30
10
11
Mt
Mt
~ 74 Mt
~ 12 Mt
6:1
1.HH = households; CTS = commerce, trade, and service 2. Geothermal, biomass, hydro 3. CO 2 expenditure for other materials not examined;
values are rounded 4. Ratio relates exclusively to the emissions
Source: BCG analysis
18
Mt
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Years
Mt
1970
589
1975
640
1980
713
1985
719
1990
773
1995
743
2000
846
2005
1 139
2010
1 404
2012
1 542
19
19
Conclusion
Despite current difficulties, future scenarios for the steel industry have
optimistic starting point: Urbanization and population growth will support
industry growth for considerable time
Surplus capacity in the industry will be difficult to reduce quickly, but can
be absorbed in long term
Steel industry will continue to provide the basis for sustainability of the
modern society through innovation
20
20
Steel is a cornerstone
and key driver for the
worlds economy.
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