Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Outline
Geographical distribution
Fleet activity in main regions
Top 20 owners
Fleet growth forecast
Scrapping
Newbuilding, second-hand market
Steel Price
Concluding Remarks
120
115
110
105
100
95
USD/barrel
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
2015
54.58
57.58
2016
71.00
75.00
(Unit: USD per barrel, from Short-term Energy Outlook, released by EIA in January,2015)
Spot Crude
2015
56.7
2016
63.9
2017
68
2018
70.9
2019
72.1
2020
72.6
2013
14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4
2014
15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4
2015
Africa
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.1
Americas
30.2
30.5
31.1
31.1
30.7
30.4
30.4
31.1
31.3
30.8
30.6
30.7
31.3
31.5
31
Asia/Pacific
30.7
29.8
29.8
30.9
30.3
31.2
30.1
29.9
31.2
30.6
31.6
30.6
30.7
31.8
31.2
Europe
13.8
14.5
14.6
14.2
14.3
13.7
14.1
14.6
14.2
14.1
13.8
14.1
14.4
14.1
14.1
FSU
4.5
4.6
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.7
4.6
Middle East
7.5
7.9
8.4
7.7
7.9
7.8
8.2
8.6
7.8
8.1
7.9
8.4
8.8
8.2
8.3
90.6
91.2
92.5
92.8
91.8
91.6
91.6
93.3
93.9
92.6
92.5
92.5
94
94.4
93.3
Annual Chg(%)
1.3
1.7
1.6
0.9
1.4
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.7
1.1
0.9
0.9
Annual Chg(mb/d)
1.1
1.5
1.5
0.8
1.2
1.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
World
The outlook for global oil demand growth for 2015 has been cut by 230 kb/d to 0.9 mb/d on
lower expectations for the FSU and other oilexporting countries.
Sharply lower oil prices since midJune have, to date, led to little positive impact on global oil
product demand.
The Russian forecast has been hit particularly hard by the market selloff, with the forecast for
2015 revised down by 195 kb/d, to 3.4 mb/d. The impact of economic sanctions and uncertainty
over Russias policy towards Ukraine will likely aggravate price effects.
94
92
3
90
Forecast
88
86
84
82
-1
80
-2
78
76
-3
World Production
World Consumption
1,600
40
1,400
35
1,200
30
1,000
25
800
600
20
400
15
200
10
Production of Crude Oil including Lease Condensate (Billion Barrels Per Year)
World Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)
1990
2000
2013
22.1
25
27.8
1000.5
1016.8
1646.0
45.3
40.7
59.2
45
E&P Reduction
International Capital Spending by Regions( USD mn)
Middle East
latin America
Russia/FSU
India, Asia and Australia
Europe
Africa
Majors(International)
NAM Independents(International)
Other(International)
Total International Spending
2013
2014E
2015F
2013-2014 %
2014-2015 %
34,777
74,137
48,317
108,534
46,014
24,225
104,946
17,435
4,581
462,966
40,180
78,671
51,348
112,499
45,921
26,286
104,813
18,565
5,161
483,444
46,000
74,934
44,606
105,735
38,248
27,725
94,640
14,120
5,041
451,049
15.50%
6.10%
6.30%
3.70%
-0.20%
8.50%
-0.10%
6.50%
12.70%
4.40%
14.5%
-4.7%
-13.1%
-6.0%
-16.7%
5.5%
-9.7%
-23.9%
-2.3%
-6.7%
Shell, will cut its capital spending by $15bn over 2015-17. 40% projects will be delayed or
cancelled.
Total, announced to reduce group-wide capital spending by 10% this year and speed up billions
of dollars in asset disposals.
Conoco, planned 33% cut in its capital spending this year to $11.5bn, $2bn less than it had
suggested in December 2014.
110.0%
105.0%
95.0%
100.0%
95.0%
90.0%
85.0%
90.0%
85.0%
80.0%
80.0%
75.0%
75.0%
70.0%
70.0%
South America
West Africa
Europe/Mediterranean Sea
Middle East
10
97.5%
AHTS
96.6%
PSV
99.0%
Trend
US Gulf of Mexico
Utilization Rate
Rig
81.3%
AHTS
80.7%
PSV
91.0%
Middle East
Trend
Utilization Rate
Utilization Rate
Rig
90.5%
AHTS
93.1%
Rig
85.2%
PSV
94.8%
AHTS
96.9%
PSV
75.8%
West Africa
Utilization Rate
Rig
85.3%
AHTS
90.0%
PSV
96.7%
Trend
South America
Utilization Rate
Rig
99.4%
AHTS
97.8%
PSV
96.3%
Trend
*The arrows indicate the change of utilization rate from last quarter.
** Since Oct2013 IHS Petrodata started using marketed supply to replace
total
supply to calculate rig utilization rates, hence the rates are in
general higher than preivously reported.
Note: Vessels with the avtivity status cold stacked, idle and other work
(out of market) are seen as unemployed n the utilization rate calculation.
World Total
Utilization Rate
11
Asia/Australia
Trend
Rig
90.9%
AHTS
87.9%
PSV
93.3%
Trend
Trend
Weaker than expected economic growth, especially in the EU , Japan and China,
continue as a driver for weak oil consumption. Increased capital discipline at oil
companies, cost-cutting measures and scaled-back spending for E&P all bring
more negative outlook.
Forecast on oil prices turn around very uncertain-next 3 months likely to give
stronger indication of direction.
Price fall only partly driven by demand, more by supply and politics.
12
AHTS
AHTS Fleet Profile
Fleet overview
Age distribution
Geographical distribution
Fleet activity in main regions
Top 20 owners
Fleet growth forecast
14
AHTS-Fleet Overview
15 AHTS were removed from
service compared with Q3, 2014
5,000-6,999
BHP
7,000-9,999
BHP
10,00014,999 BHP
15,00017,999 BHP
>18,000 BHP
Total
211
657
433
267
124
118
1,810
64
20
41
15
151
1.9%
9.7%
4.6%
15.4%
5.6%
12.7%
8.3%
21
65
41
17
154
10.0%
9.9%
9.5%
6.4%
4.0%
4.2%
8.5%
2014 Delivered
36
13
10
67
2015 to be
Delivered
53
15
31
118
Current Fleet
Orderbook
Orderbook as a %
of the Fleet
Idle Vessels
Idle as a % of the
Fleet
15
Trend
>18,000 BHP
5%
>18,000 BHP
6%
15,000-17,999
BHP
7%
< 4,999 BHP
12%
10,000-14,999
BHP
13%
10,000-14,999
BHP
15%
AHTS
AHTS Fleet
End 2004
Fleet
Today
5,000-6,999 BHP
36%
5,000-6,999 BHP
23%
7,000-9,999 BHP
27%
7,000-9,999 BHP
24%
< 4,999
BHP
5,0006,999 BHP
7,0009,999 BHP
2004 year-end
213
184
225
109
Current Fleet
211
657
433
Growth %
-0.9%
257.1%
92.4%
16
>18,000
BHP
Total
48
42
821
267
124
118
1,810
145.0%
158.3%
181.0%
120.5%
5,000-6,999
BHP
7,000-9,999
BHP
10,00014,999 BHP
15,00017,999 BHP
>18,000 BHP
Total
Current Fleet
(no. of vessels)
211
657
433
267
124
118
1,810
26.5
9.9
15.1
12.9
9.3
8.3
13.4
13.7%
90%
1.8%
80%
17.2%
22.5%
69.2%
5.8%
2.8%
5.2%
1.9%
6.0%
8.1%
25.2%
5.8%
70%
0.8%
1.7%
5.9%
0.8%
0.8%
6.5%
100%
25.4%
21.0%
6.0%
3.1%
1.4%
2.3%
8.0%
5.8%
60%
14.4%
17.8%
50%
26.6%
20.3%
21.8%
Newbuilding activity in
recent years focus on
40%
30%
20%
5,000-6,999BHP and
2.4%
4.3%
above 15,000BHP.
55.7%
51.7%
42.3%
12.8%
37.1%
43.2%
41.1%
10%
10.4%
0%
< 4,999 BHP
5,000-6,999 BHP
0-5 yr
6-10 yr
11-15 yr
16-20 yr
21-25 yr
>18,000 BHP
26-30 yr
17
>30 yr
Grand Total
40
219
Middle East
75
West Africa
Far East 6
Indian Ocean
Northwest Europe
205
44
South America 5
26
73
9
30
13
26
35
37
25 5
36
11 15 10
Mediterranean/Black Sea 4 24
17
99
30
98
43
5,000-6,999 BHP
15 1
7,000-9,999 BHP
10,000-14,999 BHP
>18,000 BHP
44
25
69
66
11 8 16 4
18
800
700
64
Region
Middle East
West Africa
Southeast Asia
Far East
Indian Ocean
Mediterranean/Black Sea
Northwest Europe
Caspian Sea
South America
USA, Gulf of Mexico
Mexico
Canada, East
Central America
Russian Arctic
Australia/New Zealand
Grand Total
Current Order Book
Vessels recorded
without DP
90
600
No. of vessels
Segment disappear?
500
20
400
109
300
41
567
46
200
100
0
324
146
221
123
65
Fleet <30yr
Fleet >30yr
15
1
117
Order book
19
No. of vessels
82
79
60
33
32
29
18
16
12
9
8
7
4
1
1
393
151
743
Opportunity
for fleet
renewal?
3
1
1
3
4
1
160
211
5,000-6,999 7,000-9,999
10,00015,000BHP
BHP
14,999 BHP 17,999 BHP
55
39
16
1
5
79
8
1
6
17
11
7
4
14
20
9
10
12
7
1
18
6
2
2
28
1
1
11
4
21
4
9
11
5
16
7
1
11
10
13
7
1
2
14
1
2
12
2
6
6
8
5
5
4
8
1
6
2
8
3
1
10
424
207
161
657
433
267
124
20
>18,000
BHP
4
1
2
25
1
12
1
8
64
118
Total Fleet
130
94
56
43
35
34
29
29
28
28
26
25
24
23
21
20
20
19
19
19
1,088
1,810
AHTS
AHTS Market
Orderbook
Delivery
Scrapping
Newbuilding and second-hand market
21
KCM
FOCAL 680
SPA85L
60
2
51
10,000-14,999 BHP
40
5,000-6,999BHP
Current order book: 64 vessels
Design unknown: 50 vessels
Seatech
5,000-6,999 BHP
7,000-9,999 BHP
Seatech P-729
VS4612
50
No. of Vessels
DN59M
15,000-17,999 BHP
>18,000 BHP
30
23
20
13
9
10
4.0
6
3
7
4
4
1
SPA 150
VS4612 AHTS
10,000-14,999BHP
Current order book: 41 vessels
Design unknown: 29 vessels
22
120
100
200
150
60
100
40
50
20
23
USD/bbl
No. of Vesels
80
AHTS Scrapping
< 4,999 BHP
5,000-6,999 BHP
7,000-9,999 BHP
32.6
30.9
33.0
29
25
1
20
10
15
10
1
2
3
2
2009
< 4,999 BHP
1
4
5
2
1
2008
2010
5,000-6,999 BHP
2011
2012
7,000-9,999 BHP
Note: the scrapping number include vessels retired/ removed from service,
scrapped and to be scrapped.
24
2013
4
2
1
2014
10,000-14,999 BHP
Newbuilding Contractings
100
250
120
90
100
200
No. of Vessels
70
50
40
80
150
60
100
40
30
20
50
20
10
0
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
0
Dec-08
Mill. USD
60
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
>18,000 BHP
10,000-14,999 BHP
5,000-6,999 BHP
Brent Oil Price (right axis)
Note: The newbuilding and 2nd hand prices refer to Norwegian built vessels;
Second-hand price refers to the average price of 5-year old vessels.
25
2012
2013
2014
15,000-17,999 BHP
7,000-9,999 BHP
< 4,999 BHP
USD/bbl
80
AHTS Supply-Summary
26
26
PSV
PSV Fleet
Fleet overview
Age distribution
Geographical distribution
Fleet activity in main regions
Top 20 owners
Fleet growth forecast
27
<1,999 dwt
Current Fleet
Total
445
165
430
425
1,465
28
24
130
157
339
6.3%
14.5%
30.2%
36.9%
23.1%
16
10
12
10
48
3.6%
6.1%
2.8%
2.4%
3.3%
2014 Delivered
18
46
80
151
2015 to be Delivered
19
13
109
120
261
Orderbook
Orderbook as a % of the
Fleet
Idle Vessels
28
Trend
>4,000 dwt
10%
3,000-3,999 dwt
18%
>4,000 dwt
29%
PSV Fleet
End 2004
2,000-2,999 dwt
14%
<1,999 dwt
31%
PSV Fleet
Today
<1,999 dwt
58%
3,000-3,999 dwt
29%
2,000-2,999 dwt
11%
<1,999 dwt
2,000-2,999 dwt
3,000-3,999 dwt
>4,000 dwt
Grand Total
2004 year-end
377
90
119
62
648
Current Fleet
445
165
430
425
1,465
Growth %
18.0%
83.3%
261.3%
585.5%
126.1%
29
2,000-2,999 dwt
3,000-3,999 dwt
>4,000 dwt
Grand Total
Current Fleet
(no. of vessels)
445
165
430
425
1,465
21.1
12.4
7.8
5.1
11.6
1.9%
100%
12.1%
90%
80%
0.6%
2.4%
8.5%
45.4%
2.1%
0.7%
0.5%
4.2%
4.7%
1.2%
15.9%
6.8%
16.7%
1.1%
1.8%
5.1%
15.5%
70%
12.4%
24.8%
60%
29.8%
50%
2.9%
1.8%
5.2%
40%
8.8%
20.9%
21.2%
71.5%
30%
17.3%
44.4%
20%
42.9%
30.3%
10%
18.7%
0%
<1,999 dwt
0-5 yr
Newbuilding activity in
2,000-2,999 dwt
6-10 yr
11-15 yr
3,000-3,999 dwt
16-20 yr
>4,000 dwt
21-25 yr
Grand Total
26-30 yr
30
>30 yr
159
Northwest Europe 3 13
75
South America
51
West Africa
Middle East
NW Europe/North Sea
Indian Ocean
21
6
26
Mediterranean/Black Sea 41 18
78
95
35
15 14 2
47
65
83
13
60
27
157
15
69
Mexico
59
33
13 5
19
16
Far East 17 9 4
<1,999 dwt
Central America
6 5 52
Caspian Sea
7 81
2,000-2,999 dwt
3,000-3,999 dwt
>4,000 dwt
Other 5342
(in No. of vessels)
31
41
81
An upsizing
trend
Region
USA, Gulf of Mexico
West Africa
Middle East
South America
Mexico
Southeast Asia
Northwest Europe
Mediterranean/Black Sea
Central America
Indian Ocean
Caspian Sea
USA, Alaska
Canada, East
Far East
Baltic
Grand Total
Current Order Book
Vessels recorded
without DP
600
No. of vessels
500
157
130
28
400
422
422
202
300
200
100
24
20
243
145
Fleet <30yr
Fleet >30yr
Order book
32
No. of vessels
62
46
35
23
22
12
10
6
4
4
4
2
1
1
1
233
339
302
<1,999
dwt
8
29
41
9
27
4
14
1
15
4
5
2,000-2,999 3,000-3,999
dwt
dwt
7
24
14
48
2
25
25
4
11
9
16
20
10
4
2
4
8
8
2
1
1
13
1
13
3
2
7
>4,000
dwt
79
23
13
15
5
10
2
18
15
11
1
1
4
7
10
16
1
272
445
70
165
33
3
7
7
223
430
14
10
7
7
173
425
Total Fleet
118
114
81
53
52
50
30
24
23
20
19
19
18
17
17
16
14
14
14
14
738
1,465
PSV
PSV Market
Orderbook
Delivery
Scrapping
Newbuilding and second-hand market
34
DN60M
90
A <1,999 dwt
87
B 2,000-2,999 dwt
80
UT535E
C 3,000-3,999 dwt
74
D >4,000 dwt
SPP17
220ft
<1,999dwt
Current order book: 28 vessels
Design unknown: 16 vessels
No. of Vessels
70
60
50
40
20
10
VS4408
20
18
8
2
17
11
2
9
2
16
200ft
KCM75M
ADNOC
27
30
10
2,000-2,999dwt
Current order book: 24 vessels
Design unknown: 9 vessels
35
13
2 1
300
120
250
100
200
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
36
USD/bbl
No. of Vesels
PSV Scrapping
<1,999 dwt
2,000-2,999 dwt
3,000-3,999 dwt
28.7
25.6
26.0
12
10
4
2
0
2008
2009
<1,999 dwt
2010
2011
2012
2,000-2,999 dwt
Note: the scrapping number include vessels retired/ removed from service,
scrapped and to be scrapped.
37
2013
3,000-3,999 dwt
2014
250
120
60
100
200
40
30
80
150
60
100
40
20
50
20
10
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
>4,000 dwt
2,000-2,999 dwt
Brent Oil Price (right axis)
Note: The newbuilding and 2nd hand prices refer to Norwegian built vessels;
Second-hand price refers to the average price of 5-year old vessels.
38
2012
2013
2014
3,000-3,999 dwt
<1,999 dwt
USD/bbl
No. of Vessels
Mill. USD
50
PSV orderbook focus is mainly above 3,000 dwt and above 4,000 dwt.
PSV scheduled deliveries for 2015 is significantly higher than the actual
delivered in 2014. Scheduled deliveries of 2016 is less than 1/3 of that
of 2015.
39
Demand-Steel Price
1,800
1,600
1,400
USD/tonne
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
40
Concluding Remarks
Scrapping Age
40
50
35
45
No. of Vessels
30
40
25
35
20
15
30
10
25
20
AHTS
AHTS
PSV
42
PSV
140
250
200
120
100
80
150
60
100
50
0
PSV Idle
20
No. of Vessels
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
AHTS Idle
142
125
72
154
PSV Idle
37
32
85
48
43
compared to 2014.
40
AHTS Idle
300
Concluding Remarks
Lower oil price putting negative pressure on market for the offshore
newbuilding orders.
44
This report is based on our knowledge of relevant market conditions. Our estimates are made on the basis of this knowledge, but
other circumstances, or new circumstances, as well as general uncertainty could cause the market to develop differently. We take
general reservation for misprints. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any material form
(including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means) without the written permission of the copyright owner.
Likewise, any quoting is prohibited without the written permission of the copyright owner.