Keith Wicks Revised Grocery Study 03-17-14

KWA
Retail Development Planning
Retail Food Market Survey Update
Downtown Louisville, Kentucky
Prepared for:
Louisville Downtown Development Corporation

Project #LDDC102
March 10, 2014
Keith Wicks & Associates

Krwassoc@Frontiernet.Net
15008 Keller Lake Drive

Minneapolis, MN 55306
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Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102
3-10-14
P a g e |2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The objective of this report is to update the original market survey #LDDC101 dated March
2013 for the purpose of assessing feasibility of and providing sales forecasts for new plans for
developing retail food service in the Downtown Louisville market.
Delineated primary trade area remains the same as with the original survey: 3-miles east/west
and 2-miles north/south; market potential is a mix of residential and daytime business sectors.
Sites and projected store opening:

NuLu Site 1000, opening 18-months out, September 2015.
Cordish Site 2000, opening 24-months out; March 2016.
Projecting first year end settled sales for each site.

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NuLu Site 1000, 724 E. Market Street.
Location: Downtowns east end, NuLu arts and entertainment district. The
property measures about 100 wide x 200 deep; 0.46 acre. It backs up to an
alley for additional access and room for delivery.
Proposed development: two-story complex; 4,000 sf at ground level for

grocery; second floor office lease area for contribution to return on real estate
investment. Assumption: total grocery area is contained at ground level.
However, there is option to expand the 4,000 sf total area via housing some store
elements at the second floor (e.g., offices, break room, storage, prep, catering
and caf whether indoor or rooftop).
Proposed grocer: Pauls Fruit Market, an

established specialty retailer with five stores in the
Louisville Metro. Produce is lead feature
including floral & gifts and seasonal nursery. The
format also features service deli with custommade sandwiches (Boars Head products) and
store-made salads/entrees. It provides
convenience variety center store grocery, dairy
and frozen food, and subleased area for a Burgers service butcher shop.
Projected store: described above and tailored to the NuLu market and site; optimized
prepared foods, catering, and caf/ patio seating. The small site limits parking and
nursery area. Upside via use of second floor space.

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Pauls as a small specialty store would provide limited grocery and more so fresh
grocery fare to the immediate convenience area and would have potential to develop
business beyond the trade area east end. Pauls specialties also attract a share of the
substantial daytime and transient trade in this market including the hospital district,
industrial businesses and entertainment corridor along Market and Main.

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Cordish Site 2000
See Courier Journal March 7, 2014 article on this development, on page ___.
Location: planned redevelopment block between MLK Blvd. and Liberty Street, and
2nd and 3rd Streets. At the heart of downtown, with close proximity to 4th Street Live
and KFC Yum! Convention Center.
Proposed development: Cordish Co., owner operator of 4th Street Live,

propose a $261m mixed-use plan with a 600-room hotel and a 200-unit
apartment complex with first floor retail anchored by a specialty grocery store.
Proposed grocer: Cosentinos, a Kansas City, MO retailer with portfolio of

(2) Market, (3) Sun Fresh, (3) Apple and (17) Price Chopper
supermarkets. Serviced by Associated Wholesale Grocers (AWG)
headquartered in Kansas City and with a wholesale division in Nashville.
Projected store: Cosentinos operates a 33,000 sf

Market format in similar situation in Downtown
Kansas City. That store is a full-service supermarket
with emphasized prepared food service for the
downtown market. Site 1000 is projected as a scale
down version, 25,000 sf.

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Cosentinos Site 2000 is 0.9 mile west of NuLu Site 1000. These sites have minor
interaction with the proposed difference in store size and retail models, and with citing
the strong densities with the daytime trade in each area.
Site 2000 is exposed to a broader dynamic of traffic and business sectors which
support the larger store. The projected Cosentinos Market is a scaled down version of
the Kansas City downtown retail model. That store size is assumed with scaled down
grocery area to allow for emphasize prepared foods area, yet hold a full-service
grocery set. Ground floor caf seating would seem to be sacrificed in this store size
but its assumed that there will be other options for on premise dining via mezzanine
seating area or with seating in common areas of the associate retail complex.
The facility will have
excellent sight lines at the
southeast corner of the
property facing traffic at the
wider, 2nd Street. Business
impression will depend on
supportive presentation of
the storefront and business
imagery to help develop
initial market awareness as
well as maintain impression
in the congested downtown
market, especially citing
transient trade.
Its also assumed that larger grocery orders will have support of carry out service or a
cart-escalator or parcel pick-up service with the onsite structured parking.
A typical new supermarket will grow its sales base through three years of business
maturation, and the uniqueness of Cosentinos as a new retailer in the Louisville Metro
market can develop extended reach and sales into second and third years of operation
(see three year forecast in the Conclusion section). First year business from
residential sectors could be lean as the market adapts to the new retail food location.
This location has first year sales development advantage with walking trade. It will rely
on the proposed structured parking with 800 stalls on site, which is an established
culture with the downtown market.

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2013 Demographics
3-10-14
P a g e |8
NuLu Site 1000
Cordish Site 2000
Cosentino's KC*
3,159
3,953
34,447
$135,837
$169,979
$155,115
1.80
2.28
1.30
86.3%
94.2%
80.2%
33.5
39.0
31.3
Average Household Income
$36,387
$32,937
$52,150
Median Household Income
$23,949
$21,801
$42,839
% White Population
35.5%
41.2%
69.2%
% Black Population
59.4%
52.3%
20.8%
% Children (19 years or less)
21.5%
8.6%
8.6%
6.9%
8.9%
8.9%
4 Years +, College
22.6%
26.4%
50.7%
1-Mile Reach -- Total Population
11,186
15,134
10,743
$447,440
$650,762
$483,435
1/2-Mile Reach -- Total Population

Estimated Retail Food Potential
Household Size
% Rental Housing.
Consumer Median Age
% Seniors (>65 years old)

HHD Size
1.80
1.70
1.60
75.9%
91.5%
77.3%
33.9
34.9
31.5
$38,514
$26,892
$49,779
$28,470
$18,471
$39,093
% White Population
46.2%
30.9%
59.4%
% Black Population
48.9%
63.9%
29.1%
19.7%
23.0%
23.0%
% Seniors
4 Years +, College
7.6%
25.5%
11.4%
18.1%
11.4%
40.7%
2-Mile Reach -- Total Population
48,917
50,847
29,156
$1,956,680
$2,186,421
$1,312,020
1.80
1.90
1.90
68.2%
73.5%
74.0%
35.8
33.9
31.8
$43,525
$35,705
$45,247
$32,121
$26,146
$33,974
% White Population
60.2%
48.6%
44.0%
% Black Population
34.9%
46.6%
41.5%
19.8%
23.1%
23.1%
% Seniors
4 Years +, College
11.7%
28.6%
10.3%
21.4%
10.3%
28.0%
% Rental Housing.
Consumer Median Age
HHD Size
% Rental Housing.
Consumer Median Age
Daytime Workers, 0.5-Mile

19,812
56,143
40,232
Daytime Pop., 1-Mile
75,024
99,995
79,403
Daytime Pop., 2-Mile
130,503
134,064
122,603
Cosentino's Downtown Kansas City Market included for comparison to Cordish Site 2000.

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Sales forecast information
This markets supermarket competitive structure is updated from that assessed

with the original field study. It is updated with the projected population trend and
2% annual inflation of consumer expenditures.
o One competitor change is included in all forecasted scenarios: Kroger
#348 at 2nd and Breckenridge has been upgraded with a $500k
investment. Store size remains the same but equipment was replaced as
needed, new dcor added and natural and organic products were
expanded presumably for that areas mix of students and seniors.
The sales model is with basis of trade area residents and supermarket
expenditures. Sales models are used first to assess current market competitive
structure and then to forecast sales for changes as with Sites 1000 and 2000.
Keep in mind that a central market positioned competitor or site is typically
assessed with 70-95% of its sales base coming from the primary resident trade
areathis percent of total sales is referred to as the Draw factor.
Sites 1000 and 2000 will each have low Draw factors because of this markets
convenience area daytime demand (dining and going home needs with workers,
businesses, visitors). Daytime demand is a substantial factor with this market,
noting that consumer food-away-from-home expenditures are close (about 10%
less) than food-at-home expenditures. Downtown daytime workers are estimated
to have about 20-30% of food-away expenditure available for daytime dining
needs, which raises additional grocery demand for going home needs.
Cosentinos Market Site 2000 is exposed to 50,000 to 100,000 daytime workers
in the range of 0.5 to 1-mile of Site 100, and 2,400 to 4,500 businesses in that
range. This doesnt account for hotel guests and visitors. The demographic
comparison of Site 2000 to that for Cosentinos Downtown Kansas City store
indicates that Site 2000 is exposed to less household income and a greater
share of lower income households, but conversely the Louisville market presents
an even stronger daytime demand. Louisville market growth is a factor that
would seem to favor Site 2000, comparatively, too.

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Pauls Fruit Market Site 1000 is exposed to 20,000 to 75,000 daytime workers
and 900 to 2,500 businesses in that range.
Daytime potential is further highlighted with downtowns substantial office,
entertainment and health care sectors.
The baseline sales model defines resident expenditure potential for:
o Retail food (grocery).
o Beer.
Consumer pharmacy expenditures are not included in this market because
neither proposed retailer for Site 100 and 200 offer the service. The added sales
for competitors with that service shift into outside Draw business.
Wine & spirits expenditures are not included in this market because Kentucky
does not allow those sales in a supermarket. The issue has been actively
lobbied but the 6th U.S. Court of Appeals in January 2014 upheld the 1938 law.
Directly related downtown growth
In proximity of Cordish Site 100:
o ___ new hotel rooms under construction.
o ____ new apartments planned.
o $645m expansion plan for KFC Yum! Convention Center. This increases
the centers ability to contend for 74% of convention demand to over 90%
of that demand. This is a key catalyst for the in-process and planned
growth of downtowns hotel and entertainment sectors.
o _____ sf of new, mixed-use office space.
In proximity of NuLu Site 1000:

o Mainstreet Streetscape to improve presentation of the area between NuLu
and downtown.
o Close proximity to the university biotech district west of the freeway.
o Planned hotel across Mainstreet from Site 1000.
The subject sites are judged to draw a majority of their respective sales base
from within this market including residential and daytime business sectors. They
additionally can draw secondary business from residential sectors beyond this
trade area and more so contiguous to the primary trade area, including low
income sectors to the west.

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Conclusion
The following forecasts are reasonably achievable sales goals. The forecasts would likely be
altered upon further information for the proposed site developments and retail models. There
more so is upside to the forecasts as opposed to downside performance issues, given this
Downtowns substantial development plans and proposals, and citing opportunity with the
substantial daytime trade.
Scenario 1 -- Pauls NuLu Site 1000 open 3rd Qtr. 2015 the limited variety specialty store is
projected accordingly in competitive ranking (sales model Image).
Despite that conservative measure the lack of convenient grocery service in this area raises
reasonably this scenarios grocery potential is just over $6/sf at $25.5k. Prepared foods
attraction to the daytime sector increases Pauls potential about 20-points for the total forecast
of just of $35k per week. Store hours are assumed similar to Pauls other stores; 8-7 daily. The
following is a first-pass at breaking down the forecast by retail element.
4,000 SF PAUL'S NULU SITE 1000

First-Pass Estimates of Forecast & Break Down by Retail Department
Distribution
Weekly
Sales
Produce
Floral & Gifts
27.00%
3.00%
$9,765
$1,085
Seasonal Nursery
Deli & Bakery
Catering
1.00%
25.00%
3.00%
$362
$9,042
$1,085
Grocery
Frozen
Dairy
18.00%
3.00%
5.00%
$6,510
$1,085
$1,808
Burger's Meat
15.00%
$5,425
Total
100.00%
$36,166
Department
Market Share
Store Size
$/SF Productivity
Annual
Sales
Comments
$507,771 Paul's lead feature.

$56,419 Emphasized & creative presentation of this area as
supplement to Produce and to maintain consumer
perspectives of seasonal nursery service.
$18,806 Contribution to annual weekly performance; 14-weeks.
$470,158 Serv. Case, island cheese.
$56,419 Office deliver and pickup; no "service" program.
$338,514 Natural & organic products.
$56,419 Limited variety; upside w/signature Paul's product.
$94,032 Doors and open multi-deck case.
Challenging service department potential especially
$282,095
against Cosentino's Market Site 2000 if developed.
$1,880,632 First year.
1.42%
4,000 sf
Second Year = $39,820 $9.82/sf

Third Year = $42,212 $10.55/sf
$9.04

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Notes regarding Pauls upside options and changes to the assumed retail model
1. Pauls doesnt sell beer but which can be considered for this uptrend market especially if
Bergers sales goal isnt feasible thereby replacing that space with a beer department.
2. If Burgers sales goal isnt feasible then its assumed that this store would instead offer
frozen, fresh meat product (limited variety).
3. Frozen food sales goal is very conservative but could become much more significant
with a Pauls signature, frozen product program (i.e., oven-ready products).
4. Prepared foods business potential benefits with caf seating however that is developed
with indoor and patio options.
5. Pauls is a known retailer in the metro and more specifically at the metros east side,
and NuLu is an emerging and spotlighted commercial district, but this is a start-up
convenience retail location and it will rely on strong initial marketing for convenience
trade and drawing business from the neighboring communities of Clifton and Highlands.
THREE YEAR SALES GROWTH FORECAST -- PAUL'S NULU SITE 1000
Facility Map Key = 1000
1st Year
2nd Year
3rd Year
Inflation is 2%
Sep 2016
Sales Forecast
Weekly Sales /SqFt
36,166
9.04
39,280
9.82
42,212
10.55
EXPLANATION OF SALES FORECAST

Paul's Fruit Mkt
Map Key 1000
------------Sales Transfer------------- --Total Transfer-Sep 2016 Percent

Sep 2017
Sep 2018
Sales Percent
Related Stores
Population
Inflation
Float
Outside Trade Area
20,708
566
425
0
14,466
57.26
1.57
1.18
0.00
40.00
770
608
490
0
1,246
575
638
546
0
1,173
22,053
1,813
1,461
0
16,885
52.24
4.29
3.46
0.00
40.00
Total
Cumulative
36,166
36,166
100.00
3,114
39,280
2,932
42,212
42,212
100.00
Related Stores
Map Key Name
1
2
3
224
327
348
348.1
753
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Total
Cumulative
------------Sales Transfer-----------Sep 2016 Percent Sep 2017

Sep 2018
-Total TransferSales Percent
-797
-479
-2,023
-5,433
-2,059
0
-5,576
-4,341
-1.47
-1.37
-1.50
-2.20
-2.49
0.00
-1.86
-1.68
-30
-18
-75
-198
-78
0
-209
-162
-22
-13
-56
-148
-58
0
-156
-121
-849
-510
-2,155
-5,780
-2,195
0
-5,942
-4,623
-1.56
-1.46
-1.59
-2.34
-2.66
-2.66
-1.98
-1.79
-20,708
-20,708
-1.86
-770
-21,478
-575
-22,053
-22,053
-1.98

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Scenario 2 Cosentinos Cordish Site 2000 opens 1st Qtr. 2016 the mixed-use plan reportedly
will take up to three years to develop so the actual timeline to Cosentinos Market opening
could extend out another twelve months. This survey projects an optimistic timeline of 24months to opening which in effect makes the forecast conservative regarding inflation and
market growth in that additional time.
Site 2000 is a startup, convenience retail location which along with an unknown retailer can
cause a lean first year performance and extended timeline for business development, over the
typical supermarket three year timeline to business maturation in a new location.
However, Downtown Louisvilles business sectors density along with the proposed dynamic of
the Cordish plan and Cosentinos retail expertise is judged to develop good short-term market
awareness and sales achievement.
Another supportive point of Scenario 2s potential is Downtowns substantial in-process,
planned and proposed major development projects. Daytime demand is already an exceptional
business sector with impressive planned growth surrounding this site.
Downtowns housing units are projected to double in this decade including the 200 planned
apartments at Site 2000. Plans and logistics to this site are to be determined yet make this
market position a long-term growth opportunity. And Site 2000 is assumed to be connected to
Downtowns skywalk system.

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25,000 SF COSENTINO'S MARKET SITE 2000

First-Pass Estimates of Forecast & Break Down by Retail Department
Distribution
Weekly
Sales
Prepared Food
20.00%
$46,201
Bakery
Coffee bar
Produce
Floral & Gifts
4.50%
3.00%
15.00%
1.50%
$10,395
$6,930
$34,651
$3,465
Aggressive distribution forecast & in line with

$2,402,473 potential & the "Market" model. Potential in the
scaled down store size is dependent on details.
$540,556 On-premise baking; Euro breads, pastries, deserts.
$360,371 Branded coffeehouse; see note below.
$1,801,855 W/salad bar.
$180,185 Considers daytime demand including hospitals.
Meat & Seafood
11.00%
$25,411
$1,321,360 Featuring service along with convenient self-serve.
Grocery
Frozen
Dairy
29.00%
5.00%
7.00%
$66,992
$11,550
$16,170
$3,483,586 Natural & organic products.

$600,618
$840,865
Beer
4.00%
$9,240
Department
Annual
Sales
Comments
$480,495 Craft beer featured set.
Total 100.00% $231,007 $12,012,364 First year end.

Market Share
Total Store SF
$/SF Productivity
1.42%
25,000
$9.24
Second Year = $248,630 $9.95/sf

Third Year = $265,345 $10.61/sf
Notes regarding Cosentinos upside options and changes to the assumed retail model
1. This forecast is very dependent on details of the plan with regard to the scaled down
model, prepared foods formatting, site presentations and shopping support factors. Its
judged to be a fair forecast more so with upside as opposed to downside issues.
2. Recommending Cosentinos leverage Italian and International themes in variety,
features and signatures with that this metro has no other specialty grocer of that
character, which strengthens potential for extended reach; a difference-maker.
3. A branded coffee bar is assumed even though the KC store doesnt appear to have one.
But this is fitting for this market and as a replacement feature with KY not allowing a
liquor lounge as the KC store features.
4. Catering is add-on sales to this forecast due to the KC store offering a full-service
program which needs to be defined for this situation.

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P a g e | 15
THREE YEAR SALES GROWTH FORECAST

SCENARIO 2 -- COSENTINO'S CORDISH SITE 2000
Mar 2017
Sales Forecast
Weekly Sales /SqFt
1st Year
2nd Year
3rd Year
231,007
248,630
265,345
9.24
9.95
10.61
Inflation is 2%

Cosentino's Mkt
Map Key 2000
------------Sales Transfer------------- --Total Transfer-Mar 2017 Percent

Mar 2018
Mar 2019
Sales Percent
Related Stores
Population
Inflation
Float
Outside Trade Area
143,229
3,981
2,944
0
80,852
62.00
1.72
1.27
0.00
35.00
3,895
4,229
3,331
0
6,168
2,867
4,326
3,672
0
5,850
149,990
12,536
9,948
0
92,871
56.53
4.72
3.75
0.00
35.00
Total
Cumulative
231,007
231,007
100.00
17,623
248,630
16,716
265,345
265,345
100.00
Related Stores
Map Key Name
1
2
3
224
327
348
348.1
753
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Total
Cumulative
------------Sales Transfer-----------Mar 2017 Percent Mar 2018

Mar 2019
-4,990
-2,175
-4,849
-15,318
-28,442
0
-63,386
-24,069
-9.78
-6.45
-3.60
-6.35
-49.89
0.00
-25.66
-9.94
-157
-67
-158
-431
-641
0
-1,716
-724
-116
-50
-117
-318
-468
0
-1,263
-535
-5,263
-2,292
-5,125
-16,067
-29,551
0
-66,365
-25,328
-10.31
-6.79
-3.80
-6.66
-51.83
-51.83
-26.87
-10.46
-143,229
-143,229
-14.22
-3,895
-147,123
-2,867
-149,990
-149,990
-14.89

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P a g e | 16
Scenario 3 Two-stores opened 1st Qtr. 2016

Opening both locations makes sense for two reasons:
1. Two stores bring a convenient network of retail food service for the broad Downtown
market in support of the existing and planned business sectors including housing.
2. The two retail models are each significant and unique anchors for their respective
business settings.
TWO-STORES OPENED 1ST QTR 2016

Scenario
1 Pauls NuLu
Site 1000
2 Cosentinos
Cordish Site 2000
Store Size
4,000 sf
Sales Forecast
$30,654
$/SF Productivity
$7.66
Market Share
1.18%
25,000 sf
$229,428
$9.18
9.56%
The downside to opening stores in both locations is that the sites are 0.9 mile apart so that
their convenience trade areas do overlap. The effect has minor impact on Cosentinos sales
forecast but does lower Pauls forecast about -10% more so taking grocery potential.
The two-store strategy further emphasizes the importance of prepared foods strategy for Pauls
in the NuLu situation, which can minimize if not erase that impact. For example, in this
scenario Bergers Meats isnt recommended against Cosentinos meat services so that space
could be replaced with prepared foods and related services.

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P a g e | 17
SCENARIO 3 TWO-STORE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

THREE YEAR SALES GROWTH FORECASTS
PAUL'S NULU SITE 1000
Mar 2017
Sales Forecast
Weekly Sales /SqFt
1st Year
2nd Year
3rd Year
30,654
33,273
35,720
7.66
8.32
8.93
Inflation is 2%

Paul's Fruit Mkt
Map Key 1000

Mar 2018
Mar 2019
Sales Percent
Related Stores
Population
Inflation
Float
Outside Trade Area
17,574
457
361
0
12,262
57.33
1.49
1.18
0.00
40.00
662
495
415
0
1,048
494
513
461
0
979
18,731
1,465
1,236
0
14,288
52.44
4.10
3.46
0.00
40.00
Total
Cumulative
30,654
30,654
100.00
2,619
33,273
2,447
35,720
35,720
100.00
Related Stores
Map Key Name
1
2
3
224
327
348
348.1
753
2000
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Cosentino's Mkt
Total
Cumulative

Mar 2019
-582
-372
-1,680
-4,156
-990
0
-3,243
-3,131
-3,422
-1.15
-1.11
-1.26
-1.75
-1.74
0.00
-1.32
-1.31
-2.41
-22
-14
-64
-154
-38
0
-123
-118
-129
-17
-11
-48
-115
-28
0
-92
-88
-96
-621
-396
-1,791
-4,425
-1,056
0
-3,458
-3,338
-3,647
-1.23
-1.19
-1.35
-1.86
-1.86
-1.86
-1.41
-1.39
-2.57
-17,574
-17,574
-1.54
-662
-18,236
-494
-18,731
-18,731
-1.65

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Fax952.953.0152
3-10-14
P a g e | 18
COSENTINO'S CORDISH SITE 2000

Mar 2017
Sales Forecast
Weekly Sales /SqFt
1st Year
2nd Year
3rd Year
229,428
246,935
263,533
9.18
9.88
10.54
Inflation is 2%

Cosentino's Mkt
Map Key 2000

Mar 2018
Mar 2019
Sales Percent
Related Stores
Population
Inflation
Float
Outside Trade Area
142,271
3,933
2,924
0
80,300
62.01
1.71
1.27
0.00
35.00
3,892
4,179
3,309
0
6,128
2,866
4,276
3,647
0
5,809
149,029
12,388
9,880
0
92,237
56.55
4.70
3.75
0.00
35.00
Total
Cumulative
229,428
229,428
100.00
17,508
246,935
16,598
263,533
263,533
100.00
Related Stores
Map Key Name
1
2
3
224
327
348
348.1
753
1000
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Paul's NuLu Mkt
Total
Cumulative

Mar 2019
-4,832
-9.60
-2,086
-6.26
-4,510
-3.39
-14,043
-5.93
-27,507 -49.35
0
0.00
-61,558 -25.34
-23,066
-9.67
-4,669 -26.90
-142,271
-142,271
-14.11
-153
-65
-149
-396
-623
0
-1,678
-700
-128
-113
-48
-111
-292
-455
0
-1,235
-518
-94
-3,892
-146,163
-2,866
-149,029


-5,099 -10.13
-2,199
-6.60
-4,769
-3.59
-14,731
-6.22
-28,585 -51.29
0 -51.29
-64,470 -26.54
-24,285 -10.18
-4,891 -28.18
-149,029
-14.78
Office...952.953.0993
Cell...612.868.9871
Fax952.953.0152
3-10-14
P a g e | 19
Original Survey Competitor Assessment; March 2013

Map
Key
348
1
2
3
224
327
753
Store
Kroger Food & Drug
924 S. 2nd Street
Save A Lot
1311 S. Shelby St.
Walmart Nbhd. Mkt.
3101 Poplar Level Rd
Value Market
1250 Bardstown Road
Kroger Fd, Drug & Fuel
2200 Brownsboro Rd
Kroger Food & Drug
2710 W. Broadway
Kroger Food & Drug
1265 Goss Avenue
7 Competitors Totals
Competitors Averages
TSQFT
Sales
Draw*
$ in T.A.
Market
Share
26,000
$285,000
$10.96
90%
$256,500
19.40%
17,000
$85,000
$5.00
50%
$42,500
3.86%
40,000
$325,000
w/pharmacy
$250,000
$8.13
10%
$32,500
2.46%
$8.33
50%
$125,000
9.45%
$520,000
w/pharmacy
$530,000
w/pharmacy
$700,000
w/pharmacy
$13.33
18%
$92,040
17.70%
$11.28
10%
$53,000
6.01%
$10.14
10%
$70,000
18.27%
$2,695,000
$385,000
$10.06
$10.06
n/a
n/a
$671,540
$95,934
77.15%
11.02%
$302,141
$1,322,141
22.85%
100.00%
30,000
39,000
47,000
69,000
268,000
38,286
Total Float $
Total Market Potential
$/SF

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P a g e | 20
TODAYS DOWNTOWN LOUISVILLE RETAIL FOOD MARKET

MARCH 2014
2.0% ANNUAL INFLATION
TRADE AREA TOTALS
Trade Area
Population
Potential
Facility Volume
Float Amount
Float Percent
P.C.E.
Dec 2012
Mar 2014
34,111
1,322,141
1,020,000
302,141
22.85
38.76
34,853
1,385,479
1,068,764
316,714
22.86
39.75
% Change
2.18
4.79
4.78
4.82
2.56
ESTIMATED COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE WITH KROGER #348 UPGRADE

Facility
Map Key
1
2
3
224
327
348
348.1
753
Forecast
---Mar 2014 --Volume
/SqFt
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Totals
Averages
86,786
5.11
259,708
536,166
8.66
13.75
--closed-316,969
706,850
* 2,770,633
395,805
Current
----Dec 2012 ---Volume
/SqFt
----12.19
10.24
85,000
325,000
250,000
520,000
530,000
285,000
285,000
690,000
5.00
8.13
8.33
13.33
11.28
10.96
10.96
10.00
10.34
2,970,000
371,250
10.10
T.A.
Diff.
%
Chg
Fcst
Total
Area
1,072
958
4,854
7,275
-63
-256,500
28,772
5,898
2
3
4
3
0
17,000
40,000
30,000
39,000
47,000
11
2
26,000
69,000
Draw
60
10
50
45
15
90
90
35
Image
65
92
89
118
114
112
117
111
-207,736
38,286
102
The low draw for forecast volumes is 29.99

* Forecast total includes low draw stores whose volumes are not shown.
CHAIN SUMMARY
Chain
Name
# of
Facs
---------------------Chain Total-------------------Volume
Average
Size
Average
SaveALot
*Walmart
Value Market
*Kroger
1
1
1
4
86,786
334,575
259,708
2,089,563
Totals
Averages
2,770,633
86,786
334,575
259,708
522,391
17,000
40,000
30,000
181,000
Vol/
SqFt
17,000
40,000
30,000
45,250
5.11
8.36
8.66
11.54
38,286
10.34
268,000
395,805
Avg
Image
Market
Share
65
92
89
115
3.76
2.41
9.37
61.59
77.14
* Chain includes facilities with draw less than 29.99

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P a g e | 21
MARKET POTENTIAL BY POPULATION SECTOR MARCH 2014

Sector
Map Key
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Total
Average
-----Mar 2014----Population
PCE
806
983
790
833
1,315
867
498
1,017
1,144
982
1,512
1,571
1,191
870
754
1,291
1,717
809
1,028
862
772
904
1,102
713
879
929
1,208
2,425
932
973
1,172
882
1,122
37.67
33.70
36.25
39.73
43.41
36.13
32.70
43.88
41.79
32.27
32.33
29.67
36.73
36.74
32.46
32.55
38.89
39.84
41.40
43.17
43.20
47.88
45.18
43.73
46.00
47.95
47.38
38.67
45.08
43.95
44.39
42.14
42.24
34,853
Potential
30,358
33,127
28,637
33,095
57,083
31,325
16,283
44,629
47,807
31,686
48,884
46,614
43,744
31,963
24,473
42,018
66,780
32,230
42,557
37,217
33,350
43,288
49,792
31,183
40,433
44,546
57,238
93,780
42,014
42,761
52,026
37,168
47,390
-------Float------Percent
Amount
21.74
22.04
19.83
18.31
19.52
14.03
19.43
20.56
20.68
21.43
20.01
22.86
17.27
24.57
19.51
23.69
26.13
20.79
23.61
20.74
25.83
24.88
27.00
24.30
26.06
26.59
27.33
26.91
28.40
25.85
21.98
21.97
16.41
1,385,479
39.75
6,601
7,300
5,678
6,060
11,140
4,396
3,164
9,175
9,885
6,790
9,784
10,655
7,556
7,853
4,776
9,956
17,448
6,700
10,047
7,719
8,615
10,769
13,443
7,578
10,535
11,843
15,643
25,238
11,933
11,054
11,435
8,167
7,778
316,714
22.86

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3-10-14
P a g e | 22
SCENARIO 1 PAULS NULU SITE 1000

18-MONTHS TO STORE OPENING SEPTEMBER 2015
FIRST YEAR END FORECAST SEPTEMBER 2016
TRADE AREA TOTALS
Trade Area
Population
Potential
Facility Volume
Float Amount
Float Percent
P.C.E.
Dec 2012
Sep 2016
34,111
1,322,141
1,020,000
302,141
22.85
38.76
36,560
1,529,507
1,179,910
349,597
22.86
41.84
% Change
7.18
15.68
15.68
15.71
7.93
COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE WITH PAULS NULU SITE 1000

Facility
Map Key
1
2
3
224
327
348
348.1
753
1000
Forecast
---Sep 2016 --Volume
/SqFt
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Paul's NuLu Mkt
94,240
5.54
280,662
568,509
9.36
14.58
--closed-349,788
766,415
36,166
----13.45
11.11
9.04
Current
/SqFt
85,000
325,000
250,000
520,000
530,000
285,000
285,000
690,000
0
5.00
8.13
8.33
13.33
11.28
10.96
10.96
10.00
0.00
T.A.
Diff.
%
Chg
Fcst
Total
Area
5,544
3,690
15,331
21,829
6,761
-256,500
58,309
26,745
21,700
11
11
12
9
9
17,000
40,000
30,000
39,000
47,000
23
11
0
26,000
69,000
4,000
Totals
* 3,032,758
2,970,000
-96,591
Averages
379,095
11.15
371,250
10.10
Forecast total includes low draw stores whose volumes are not shown.
Draw
60
10
50
45
15
90
90
35
60
34,000
Image
65
92
89
118
114
112
117
111
80
100
NEW CHAIN REPORT

Chain
Name
SaveALot
*Walmart
Value Market
*Kroger
Paul's Markets
# of
Facs
1
1
1
4
1
Average
Size
Average
94,240
94,240
17,000
17,000
361,903
361,903
40,000
40,000
280,662
280,662
30,000
30,000
2,259,787
564,947
181,000
45,250
36,166
36,166
4,000
4,000
Totals
8
3,032,758
Averages
379,095
Vol/
SqFt
5.54
9.05
9.36
12.49
9.04
272,000
Avg
Image
65
92
89
115
80
Market
Share
3.70
2.37
9.17
60.49
1.42
77.14
34,000
11.15
COMPETITORS NEW MARKET SHARES

Facility
Map Key
1
2
3
224
327
348.1
753
1000
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Paul's NuLu Mkt
-----Sep
M.S.
3.70
2.37
9.17
16.73
5.64
20.58
17.54
1.42
Totals
77.14
2016 ----Volume
56,544
36,190
140,331
255,829
86,261
314,809
268,245
21,700
1,179,910

Office...952.953.0993
Cell...612.868.9871
Fax952.953.0152
3-10-14
P a g e | 23
SCENARIO 2 COSENTINOS CORDISH SITE 2000

24-MONTHS TO STORE OPENING MARCH 2016
FIRST YEAR END FORECAST MARCH 2017
TRADE AREA TOTALS
Trade Area
Population
Potential
Facility Volume
Float Amount
Float Percent
P.C.E.
Dec 2012
Mar 2017
34,111
1,322,141
1,020,000
302,141
22.85
38.76
36,902
1,559,651
1,203,175
356,476
22.86
42.26
% Change
8.18
17.96
17.96
17.98
9.04
COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE WITH COSENTINOS CORDISH SITE 2000

Facility
Map Key
1
2
3
224
327
348
348.1
753
2000
Forecast
/SqFt
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Cosentino's Mkt
88,780
5.22
279,998
554,978
9.33
14.23
--closed-290,447
722,568
231,007
----11.17
10.47
9.24
Current
/SqFt
85,000
325,000
250,000
520,000
530,000
285,000
285,000
690,000
0
5.00
8.13
8.33
13.33
11.28
10.96
10.96
10.00
0.00
T.A.
Diff.
%
Chg
Fcst
Total
Area
2,268
2,591
14,999
15,740
-18,880
-256,500
4,903
11,399
150,155
4
8
12
7
-24
17,000
40,000
30,000
39,000
47,000
2
5
0
26,000
69,000
25,000
Totals
* 2,922,827
2,970,000
-73,325
Averages
365,353
9.98
371,250
10.10
Draw
60
10
50
45
15
90
90
35
65
36,625
Image
65
92
89
118
114
112
117
111
90
101
NEW CHAIN REPORT

Chain
Name
SaveALot
*Walmart
Value Market
*Kroger
Cosentino's
# of
Facs
1
1
1
4
1
Average
Size
Average
88,780
88,780
17,000
17,000
350,914
350,914
40,000
40,000
279,998
279,998
30,000
30,000
1,972,127
493,032
181,000
45,250
231,007
231,007
25,000
25,000
Totals
8
2,922,826
Averages
365,353
Vol/
SqFt
5.22
8.77
9.33
10.90
9.24
293,000
Avg
Image
65
92
89
115
90
Market
Share
3.42
2.25
8.98
52.87
9.63
77.14
36,625
9.98

Facility
Map Key
1
2
3
224
327
348.1
753
2000
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Cosentino's Mkt
-----Mar
M.S.
3.42
2.25
8.98
16.01
3.89
16.76
16.22
9.63
Totals
77.14
2017 ----Volume
53,268
35,091
139,999
249,740
60,620
261,403
252,899
150,155
1,203,175

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Cell...612.868.9871
Fax952.953.0152
3-10-14
P a g e | 24
SCENARIO 3 -- TWO NEW STORES STRATEGY

24-MONTHS TO STORES OPENING MARCH 2016
FIRST YEAR END FORECAST MARCH 2017
COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE WITH PAULS NULU SITE 1000 AND COSENTINOS
CORDISH SITE 2000
Facility
Map Key
1
2
3
224
327
348
348.1
753
1000
2000
Forecast
/SqFt
Name
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Paul's NuLu Mkt
Cosentino's Mkt
Totals
Averages
87,556
5.15
276,187
544,615
9.21
13.96
--closed-285,545
711,607
30,654
229,428
* 2,907,068
323,008
Current
/SqFt
----10.98
10.31
7.66
9.18
85,000
325,000
250,000
520,000
530,000
285,000
285,000
690,000
0
0
5.00
8.13
8.33
13.33
11.28
10.96
10.96
10.00
0.00
0.00
9.79
2,970,000
371,250
10.10
T.A.
Diff.
%
Chg
Fcst
Total
Area
1,534
2,147
13,093
11,077
-20,249
-256,500
490
7,562
18,393
149,128
3
7
10
5
-25
17,000
40,000
30,000
39,000
47,000
0
3
0
0
26,000
69,000
4,000
25,000
Draw
60
10
50
45
15
90
90
35
60
65
Image
65
92
89
118
114
112
117
111
80
90
-73,325
33,000
99
The low draw for forecast volumes is 29.99

NEW CHAIN REPORT

Chain
Name
# of
Facs
Average
Size
Average
SaveALot
*Walmart
Value Market
*Kroger
Paul's Markets
Cosentino's
1
1
1
4
1
1
87,556
346,469
276,187
1,936,775
30,654
229,428
Totals
Averages
2,907,068
87,556
346,469
276,187
484,194
30,654
229,428
17,000
40,000
30,000
181,000
4,000
25,000
Vol/
SqFt
17,000
40,000
30,000
45,250
4,000
25,000
5.15
8.66
9.21
10.70
7.66
9.18
33,000
9.79
297,000
323,008
Avg
Image
Market
Share
65
92
89
115
80
90
3.37
2.22
8.85
51.96
1.18
9.56
77.14

Facility
Map Key
1
2
3
224
327
348.1
753
1000
2000
Name
-----Mar
M.S.
Save-A-Lot
WM Nbhd Mkt
Value Market
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Kroger
Paul's NuLu Mkt
Cosentino's Mkt
Totals
2017 ----Volume
3.37
2.22
8.85
15.71
3.80
16.48
15.97
1.18
9.56
52,534
34,647
138,093
245,077
59,251
256,990
249,062
18,393
149,128
77.14
1,203,175

Office...952.953.0993
Cell...612.868.9871
Fax952.953.0152
3-10-14
P a g e | 25
(Kansas City store opening review) Cosentinos Market Downtown

WRITT EN BY: M ARY BLO CH - JU N 0112
If you havent already explored Cosentinos Market downtown, treat

yourself to the experience. Regardless of whether you live or work
downtown, its worth the drive. A grocery store was the missing link
to entice people to live downtown, and Cosentinos (the same family
that brought us the Brookside Market) really did it right.
Among other features, it has a salad bar that doesnt quit, made-to-order
sandwiches, a coffee bar with Kansas Citys own Roasterie, pizza and
pasta, a bakery and pre-prepared foods for carry-out. And then there is
the sushi bar by Kaiyo. Kaiyo is my favorite sushi restaurant in Kansas
City, and David Loo travels from his Leawood outpost to prepare sushi
at lunchtime for downtowners who stop in. If youre lucky, there will be
leftovers in the display case to take home for dinner.
If youre a beer lover, youll be thrilled with the vast selection of

brews from around the country and world. There are very fine wine
labels to choose from, tooworthy of a picnic or romantic dinner.

If youd rather eat your meal in the store, theres tons of table seating (within store and on 2 nd level).
Many people think parking is a problem. Far from it. Drive into the parking garage off Main, just north of
13th St. Theres a door from the garage into a corridor that leads to the grocery store. The store will validate
your parking ticket and an elevator makes it easy to get your cart full of groceries to the car. Piece of cake.

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3-10-14
P a g e | 26
Omni, Cordish partner with Kentucky,

Louisville on $261 million downtown hotel,
grocery store
Mar. 7, 2014 |
The Courier-Journal, Written by Sheldon S. Shafer
Downtown hotel
A city block in the heart of Louisvilles downtown will see a 600-room luxury hotel, a major grocery
store, retail stores and 200 apartments all part of a $261 million project announced Thursday.
Louisville and Kentucky are joining with Omni Hotels & Resorts and the Cordish Co., which runs 4th
Street Live!, to build the massive project within three years on the Louisville Water Co. block owned
by the city and bounded by Second, Third and Liberty streets and Muhammad Ali Boulevard.
The projects cost will be split between the public and private partners, with $105 million from Omni,
$30 million from Cordish and $126 million from the city and state, according to Gov. Steve Beshear and
Mayor Greg Fischer, who were joined Thursday by Nick Benjamin, Cordishs director of development,
and by Mike Garcia, Omni CFO and senior vice president of development.
This project is a major infusion in our downtown and to the citys entire economy, Fischer said.
It will create jobs, both temporary construction positions and permanent jobs, and it will boost our
convention and tourism industry as Omni provides a new level of luxury hotel.
Each parties obligations include:
Omni will build the hotel, which will be adjacent to 200 apartments that Cordish will develop.
The state will contribute $90.5 million through tax rebates.
The city will contribute $35.5 million. That includes the $17 million value of the land, which the city
purchased years ago, and another $17 million the city will spend to construct a parking garage that will
be paid for with Parking Authority bonds . The city also will provide $1.5 million for contingencies.
A financing district will be created within the block and part of an adjoining block, with a portion of the
new tax revenue helping to finance the development.
The block holds several historic buildings, including the Morrissey Parking Garage, the Odd Fellows Hall,
the Falls City Theatre Equipment building and the former Louisville Water Co. building. Garcia said Omni
is sensitive to preservation issues.

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Steve Rowland, the citys chief finance officer, said the city will issue $104 million in bonds next year
likely with a 30-year term to provide the funds to build the project. Although the city will guarantee
the bonds, Rowland said he is confident that the project will generate enough tax revenue to cover the
debt.
The development will be among the largest projects under construction in the region. Construction is
anticipated to begin in 2015, with the entire project expected to open no later than 2017.
This investment will be a catalyst for more convention activity, while bringing more out-of-state visitors
to Kentucky, said Beshear. Fischer called it a catalyst for Louisvilles downtown revitalization.
Fischer said he had been negotiating the deal for more than a year, which is expected to create 1,350
construction jobs and 350 permanent positions.
Fischer said he is particularly pleased that downtown Louisville will get a new grocery store. Citizens
and visitors have told us for years that a grocery was the biggest missing component to downtown,
Fischer said.
The Omni Louisville Hotel will be the fourth four-diamond, luxury hotel in the area, and will feature 600
guestrooms and suites, 70,000 square feet of meeting space, a spa, fitness center, two full-service
restaurants, rooftop pool-side caf, street level retail venue and a lobby lounge, according to the plans.
It will be the companys first property in Kentucky.
The project will also include 44,000 square feet of retail, including a full-service, 30,000-square-foot
downtown grocery store. Those facilities will be developed by Cordish; the grocery operator has not
been signed, officials said.
An 850-space parking garage will be built to service the hotel, residential and retail/grocery and will be
developed by the Parking Authority of River City.
Metro Council President Jim King, D-10th District, said the council must approve the bond issue and the
creation of the tax district. But he expressed high confidence in Cordish, calling the development plans
a home run.
Fischer also praised Cordish, saying the company stepped up, when no one else would. Cordish has
been criticized in the past by some Metro Council members, who argued that the city had given the
company sweetheart deals that it hasnt extended to other private businesses.
The public sectors assistance is consistent with comparable developments in other major cities, officials
said.

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Louisville has more than 4,000 hotel rooms in the downtown area, around 2,300 of which are linked by
the elevated walkway system with the Kentucky International Convention Center and the new KFC Yum!
Center.
Other hotels with a total of about 800 rooms in or near downtown are on the drawing board. And
several large suburban hotels are also in sight, including a long-planned 500-room luxury hotel on
Phillips Lane near Gate 1 to the Kentucky Exposition Center.
But officials said the Omni is needed. Fischer said the Omni will offer rooms to the more than one
million tourists expected to visit the Bourbon Trail this year.
And Karen Williams, acting CEO of the Louisville Convention & Visitors Bureau, called the Omni a game
changer in Louisvilles chances of landing some of the major trade shows.
Linda Edwards, vice president of sales and marketing for the Kentucky State Fair Board, a primary local
convention recruiter, said another major hotel would help bring in new business, especially larger
conventions and groups considering use of both the Yum! Center and KICC, which may soon be in line
for a $175 million expansion and renovation.
Additional hotel rooms downtown, for instance, Edwards said, would save groups the cost of having to
shuttle delegates in from suburban properties.
The Dallas-based Omni has about 40 U.S. hotels, including ones in Nashville, Indianapolis and St. Louis.
Omni classifies about a dozen of the sites as resort properties.

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Qualifier
This report is furnished pursuant to a request by Louisville Downtown Development Corp.
(client). The request is to update the original market survey dated March 2013. The client
acknowledges that while they believe the services to be performed hereunder by Keith
Wicks & Associates will be a valuable tool in management decision making it also
understands that an important part of said services involves subjective judgment, which is
dependent upon the correctness of the information made available to Keith Wicks &
Associates. Therefore, the client further acknowledges its understanding that Keith Wicks
& Associates does not guarantee any result from the use of the analysis or other services
performed hereunder, not shall Keith Wicks & Associates be responsible for any loss
incurred as a result of the use of said analysis or other services.
Furthermore, these projections are based on the conditions identified in the original survey
and the information made available for this update. Any deviation from the study
assumptions or changes in economic conditions could cause significant variation between
these projections and actual sales. The possibility of this occurring increases with time.

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Update Source Data

Louisville Downtown Development Corp., including a meeting with Clark Welch to review the
sites in February 2014.
Internet sources.
Sites USA, demographics.

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Keith Wicks Revised Grocery Study 03-17-14

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Retail Development Planning

Retail Food Market Survey Update

Downtown Louisville, Kentucky

Louisville Downtown Development Corporation

Keith Wicks & Associates

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

Sites and projected store opening:

Keith Wicks & Associates

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

NuLu Site 1000, 724 E. Market Street.

Proposed development: two-story complex; 4,000 sf at ground level for

Proposed grocer: Pauls Fruit Market, an

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

Keith Wicks & Associates

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

Cordish Site 2000

Proposed development: Cordish Co., owner operator of 4th Street Live,

Proposed grocer: Cosentinos, a Kansas City, MO retailer with portfolio of

Keith Wicks & Associates

Projected store: Cosentinos operates a 33,000 sf

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

Keith Wicks & Associates

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

Keith Wicks & Associates

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

NuLu Site 1000

Cordish Site 2000

Average Household Income

Median Household Income

% Children (19 years or less)

1-Mile Reach -- Total Population

1/2-Mile Reach -- Total Population

% Seniors (>65 years old)

Estimated Retail Food Potential

Average Household Income

Median Household Income

% Children (19 years or less)

2-Mile Reach -- Total Population

Estimated Retail Food Potential

Average Household Income

Median Household Income

% Children (19 years or less)

Daytime Workers, 0.5-Mile

Keith Wicks & Associates

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

Sales forecast information

This markets supermarket competitive structure is updated from that assessed

Keith Wicks & Associates

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

In proximity of NuLu Site 1000:

Keith Wicks & Associates

15008 Keller Lake Drive

Louisville, Kentucky Retail Food Market Survey Update #LDDC102

4,000 SF PAUL'S NULU SITE 1000