EENS 3050

Natural Disasters

Tulane University

Prof. Stephen A. Nelson

Natural Disasters & Assessing Hazards and Risk
This page last updated on 20-Aug-2014

Natural Hazards and Natural Disasters

A natural hazard is a threat of a naturally occurring event will have a negative effect on
humans. This negative effect is what we call a natural disaster. In other words when the
hazardous threat actually happens and harms humans, we call the event a natural disaster.
Natural Hazards (and the resulting disasters) are the result of naturally occurring processes that
have operated throughout Earth's history.

Most hazardous process are also Geologic Processes.

Geologic processes effect every human on the Earth all of the time, but are most
noticeable when they cause loss of life or property. If the process that poses the hazard
occurs and destroys human life or property, then a natural disaster has occurred. Among
the natural hazards and possible disasters to be considered are:
o

Earthquakes

Volcanic Eruptions

o
o

Floods
Droughts

Tsunami

Hurricanes

Landslides

Tornadoes

Subsidence

Asteroid Impacts

All of these processes have been operating throughout Earth history, but the processes
have become hazardous only because they negatively affect us as human beings.
Important Point - There would be no natural disasters if it were not for humans.
Without humans these are only natural events.

Risk is characteristic of the relationship between humans and geologic processes. We

all take risks everyday. The risk from natural hazards, while it cannot be eliminated, can,
in some cases be understood in a such a way that we can minimize the hazard to
humans, and thus minimize the risk. To do this, we need to understand something about
the processes that operate, and understand the energy required for the process. Then, we
can develop an action to take to minimize the risk. Such minimization of risk is called
hazard mitigation.

Although humans can sometimes influence natural disasters (for example when poor
levee design results in a flood), other disasters that are directly generated by humans,
such as oil and toxic material spills, pollution, massive automobile or train wrecks,

airplane crashes, and human induced explosions, are considered technological disasters,
and will not be considered in this course, except when they occur as a secondary result
of a natural disaster.
Some of the questions we hope to answer for each possible natural disaster are:
o

Where is each type of hazard likely to be present and why?

What scientific principles govern the processes responsible for the disasters?

How often do these hazards develop into disasters?

How can each type of disaster be predicted and/or mitigated?

As discussed before, natural disasters are produced by processes that have been operating since
the Earth formed. Such processes are beneficial to us as humans because they are responsible
for things that make the Earth a habitable planet for life. For example:
o

Throughout Earth history, volcanism has been responsible for producing much of the
water present on the Earth's surface, and for producing the atmosphere.

Earthquakes are one of the processes responsible for the formation of mountain ranges
which which direct water to flow downhill to form rivers and lakes.

Erosional processes, including flooding, landslides, and windstorms replenishes soil and
helps sustain life.

Such processes are only considered hazardous when they adversely affect humans and their
activities.
Classification of Natural Hazards and Disasters
Natural Hazards and the natural disasters that result can be divided into several different
categories:
Geologic Hazards - These are the main subject of this course and include:
o Earthquakes

Volcanic Eruptions

Tsunami

Landslides

Floods

Subsidence

Impacts with space objects

Atmospheric Hazards - These are also natural hazards but processes operating in the
atmosphere are mainly responsible. They will also be considered in this course, and
include:
o

Tropical Cyclones

Tornadoes

Droughts

Severe Thunderstorms

Lightening

Other Natural Hazards - These are hazards that may occur naturally, but don't fall in to
either of the categories above. They will not be considered to any great extent in this
course, but include:

Insect infestations

Disease epidemics

Wildfires

Natural Hazards can also be divided into catastrophic hazards, which have devastating
consequences to huge numbers of people, or have a worldwide effect, such as impacts with
large space objects, huge volcanic eruptions, world-wide disease epidemics, and world-wide
droughts. Such catastrophic hazards only have a small chance of occurring, but can have
devastating results if they do occur.
Natural Hazards can also be divided into rapid onset hazards, such as Volcanic Eruptions,
Earthquakes, Flash floods, Landslides, Severe Thunderstorms, Lightening, and wildfires, which
develop with little warning and strike rapidly. Slow onset hazards, like drought, insect
infestations, and disease epidemics take years to develop.
Anthropogenic Hazards
These are hazards that occur as a result of human interaction with the environment. They
include Technological Hazards, which occur due to exposure to hazardous substances, such as
radon, mercury, asbestos fibers, and coal dust. They also include other hazards that have formed
only through human interaction, such as acid rain, and contamination of the atmosphere or
surface waters with harmful substances, as well as the potential for human destruction of the
ozone layer and potential global warming.
Effects of Hazards
Hazardous process of all types can have primary, secondary, and tertiary effects.

Primary Effects occur as a result of the process itself. For example water damage
during a flood or collapse of buildings during an earthquake, landslide, or hurricane.

Secondary Effects occur only because a primary effect has caused them. For example,
fires ignited as a result of earthquakes, disruption of electrical power and water service
as a result of an earthquake, flood, or hurricane, or flooding caused by a landslide into
a lake or river.

Tertiary Effects are long-term effects that are set off as a result of a primary event.
These include things like loss of habitat caused by a flood, permanent changes in the
position of river channel caused by flood, crop failure caused by a volcani c eruption
etc.
Vulnerability to Hazards and Disasters

Vulnerability refers the way a hazard or disaster will affect human life and property
Vulnerability to a given hazard depends on:

Proximity to a possible hazardous event

Population density in the area proximal to the event

Scientific understanding of the hazard

Public education and awareness of the hazard

Existence or non-existence of early-warning systems and lines of communication

Availability and readiness of emergency infrastructure

Construction styles and building codes

Cultural factors that influence public response to warnings

In general, less developed countries are more vulnerable to natural hazards than are
industrialized countries because of lack of understanding, education, infrastructure, building
codes, etc. Poverty also plays a role - since poverty leads to poor building structure, increased
population density, and lack of communication and infrastructure.
Human intervention in natural processes can also increase vulnerability by
Development and habitation of lands susceptible to hazards, For example, building on
floodplains subject to floods, sea cliffs subject to landslides, coastlines subject to
hurricanes and floods, or volcanic slopes subject to volcanic eruptions.

Increasing the severity or frequency of a natural disaster. For example: overgrazing or

deforestation leading to more severe erosion (floods, landslides), mining groundwater
leading to subsidence, construction of roads on unstable slopes leading to landslides,
or even contributing to global warming, leading to more severe storms.

Affluence can also play a role, since affluence often controls where habitation takes place, for
example along coastlines, or on volcanic slopes. Affluence also likely contributes to global
warming, since it is the affluent societies that burn the most fossil fuels adding CO2 to the
atmosphere.
Assessing Hazards and Risk
Hazard Assessment and Risk Assessment are 2 different concepts!

Hazard Assessment consists of determining the following

when and where hazardous processes have occurred in the past.

the severity of the physical effects of past hazardous processes (magnitude).

the frequency of occurrence of hazardous processes.

the likely effects of a process of a given magnitude if it were to occur now.

and, making all this information available in a form useful to planners and public
officials responsible for making decisions in event of a disaster.

Risk Assessment involves not only the assessment of hazards from a scientific point of view,
but also the socio-economic impacts of a hazardous event. Risk is a statement of probability
that an event will cause x amount of damage, or a statement of the economic impact in
monetary terms that an event will cause. Risk assessment involves
hazard assessment, as above,
location of buildings, highways, and other infrastructure in the areas subject to hazards

potential exposure to the physical effects of a hazardous situation

the vulnerability of the community when subjected to the physical effects of the event.

Risk assessment aids decision makers and scientists to compare and evaluate potential
hazards, set priorities on what kinds of mitigation are possible, and set priorities on where to
focus resources and further study.

Prediction and Warning

Risk and vulnerability can sometimes be reduced if there is an adequate means of predicting a
hazardous event.
Prediction
Prediction involves:

A statement of probability that an event will occur based on scientific observation

Such observation usually involves monitoring of the process in order to identify some
kind of precursor event(s) - an anomalous small physical change that may be known to
lead to a more devastating event. - Examples:
o

Hurricanes are known to pass through several stages of development: tropical

depression - tropical storm - hurricane. Once a tropical depression is identified,
monitoring allows meteorologists to predict how long the development will take
and the eventual path of the storm.

Volcanic eruptions are usually preceded by a sudden increase in the number of

earthquakes immediately below the volcano and changes in the chemical

composition of the gases emitted from a volcanic vent. If these are closely
monitored, volcanic eruptions can be often be predicted with reasonable
accuracy.
Forecasting
Sometimes the word "forecast" is used synonymously with prediction and other times it is not.

In the prediction of floods, hurricanes, and other weather related phenomena the word
forecast refers to short-term prediction in terms of the magnitude, location, date, and
time of an event. Most of us are familiar with weather forecasts.

In the prediction of earthquakes, the word forecast is used in a much less precise way referring to a long-term probability that is not specific in terms of the exact time that the
event will occur. For example: Prior to the October 17 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake
(also know as the World Series Earthquake) the U.S. Geological Survey had forecast a
50% probability that a large earthquake would occur in this area within the next 30
years. Even after the event, the current forecast is for a 63% probability that a major
earthquake will occur in this area in the next 30 years.
Early Warning

A warning is a statement that a high probability of a hazardous event will occur, based on a
prediction or forecast. If a warning is issued, it should be taken as a statement that "normal
routines of life should be altered to deal with the danger imposed by the imminent event".
The effectiveness of a warning depends on:
The timeliness of the warning
Effective communications and public information systems to inform the public of the
imminent danger.

The credibility of the sources from which the warning came.

If warnings are issued too late, or if there is no means of disseminating the information, then
there will not be time enough or responsiveness to the warning. If warnings are issued
irresponsibly without credible data or sources, then they will likely be ignored. Thus, the people
responsible for taking action in the event of a potential disaster will not respond.

Frequency of Natural Disasters

Again, it is important to understand that natural disasters result from natural processes that
affect humans adversely.
First - Size Matters
For example:

Humans coexist with rivers all the time and benefit from them as a source of water and
transportation.
Only when the volume of water in the river becomes greater than the capacity of the
stream channel is there a resulting disaster.

Small earthquakes occur all of the time with no adverse effects.

Only large earthquakes cause disasters.

Second Location, location, location

For example:

A volcanic on an isolated uninhabited island will not result in a natural disaster.

A large earthquake in an unpopulated area will not result in a disaster.

A hurricane that makes landfall on a coast where few people live, will not result in a
disaster.

So, what we have to worry about is large events that strike areas where humans live.
Thus, in natural hazards studies, it is important to understand the relationship between
frequency of an event and the size of the event. Size is often referred to a magnitude.
For just about any event, statistical analysis will reveal that larger events occur less frequently
than small events.
Statistical analysis of some types of events for specific locations allow one to determine the
return period or recurrence interval.

Examples:

Flood Frequency For any river, high

discharge events are rare.
Large discharge events
occur much less
frequently than small
discharge events.

Meteorite Impacts Although we as humans have not had the opportunity (fortunately) of observing large asteroid
or meteorite impacts, the data suggest that impacts of large asteroids (1 km or larger) occurs
only once every 10 million years.

Earthquakes As we have just noted, large earthquakes occur much less frequently than smaller earthquakes.

Those with magnitudes greater than 8.5 only occur once every 3 years on the average (see Table
3.3 in your text or http://www.iris.edu/hq/gallery/photo/1066)
Is the Frequency of Natural Disasters Increasing?
Are natural disasters becoming more frequent as it seems from news reports of recent activity?
The short answer appears to be that yes, natural disasters are increasing in frequency (see
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/trends-in-natural-disasters. But, this suggests some other
important questions before we start making conclusions about the end of the world:
1. Is the frequency of hazardous events increasing?
2. Why is the frequency of natural disasters increasing (what could explain the trend)?
First, Is the frequency of hazardous events increasing? This is much more difficult to answer
since natural events responsible for natural disasters have been occurring throughout the 4.5
billion year history of the Earth. Nevertheless, there is no evidence to suggest that hazardous
events are occurring more frequently.
What about global warming? There is evidence to suggest that weather related disasters are
becoming more frequent, compared to other disasters like earthquakes. For example, the
frequency of disasters from tropical cyclones and floods has been increasing, the frequency of
earthquakes has changed little. Although this is what we expect from global warming, there is
not yet enough statistical data to prove this right now.
Second, is there another explanation for the the frequency of natural disasters increasing? First
consider the following facts:
Human population has been increasing at an exponential rate. With more people, vulnerability
increases because there are more people to be affected by otherwise natural events.
Human population is moving toward coastal areas (see http://www.livescience.com/4167flocking-coast-world-population-migrating-danger.html). These are areas most vulnerable to
natural hazards such as tropical cyclones, tsunami, and, to some extent, earthquakes.
Our ability to communicate news of natural disasters has been increasing, especially since the
invention of the internet. Earlier in human history there may have been just as many disasters,
but there were few ways the news of such disasters could be communicated throughout the
world.
Meanwhile: Deaths from natural disasters has decreased in developed countries and increased in
developing countries. What could explain this? Politics? Economics? Cultural Differences?
Education?
The cost of natural disasters has been increasing in developed countries. What could explain
this? Economics?

This Course
This course is not about the political, cultural, or economic aspects of natural disasters.
It is about the science of natural disasters and how can use our knowledge of the scientific
aspects of disasters to reduce the death and destruction caused by otherwise natural events.
Textbook Theme
The textbook selected for this course uses 5 fundamental concepts in the study of natural
hazards and disasters:
1. Science helps us predict hazards
2. Knowing hazard risk can help people make decisions
3. Linkages exist between natural hazards
4. Humans can turn disastrous events into catastrophes
5. Consequences of hazards can be minimized
We will discuss each of these concepts for each of the hazards we study.
Examples of questions on this material that could be asked on an exam
1. Define and give examples of each of the following types of hazard (a) geologic hazard,
(b) atmospheric hazard, (c) catastrophic hazard, (d) rapid onset hazard, (e)
anthropogenic hazard (f) slow oneset hazard, .
2. Explain how poverty and affluence can play a role in increasing vulnerability to natural
hazards.
3. What is the difference between hazard assessment and risk assessment?
4. What factors determine the effectiveness of warning systems?
5. Explain the difference between primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of possible
hazards.
6. What is the relationship between size of natural events, disasters, and frequency of
disasters? What is the concept of recurrence interval?
7. What might be responsible for the apparent increase in recent years of the number of
natural disasters and the economic losses due to natural disasters?
AusGeo News June 2008 Issue No. 90

Assessing natural disaster risk in the AsiaPacific region

Alanna Simpson, Phil Cummins, Trevor Dhu, Jonathan Griffin and John Schneider
Supporting international development through natural hazard risk research
The Asia-Pacific region experiences some of the world's worst natural hazards-frequent
earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, cyclones and annual monsoons. It also includes many of the
world's megacities-those with more than 8 million people-so the number of people exposed to
hazard risks in the region is very high.
There is abundant evidence that natural disasters disproportionately affect developing
countries. Between 1991 and 2005, more than 90% of natural disaster deaths and 98% of
people affected by natural disasters were from developing countries (OFDA/CRED
International Disasters Database EM-DAT). Moreover, disasters are increasing in number and
size every year due to a number of factors including rapid population growth, urbanisation
and climate change.

Implications for international aid programs

The high risk of natural
disasters in developing
nations has considerable
implications for international
aid programs. Natural
disasters can significantly
compromise development
progress, reduce the
effectiveness of aid
investments, and halt or slow
progress towards the
achievement of Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs).
For example, progress
MDG 1halving poverty
and hunger by 2015may be halted or reversed during a natural disaster. Furthermore, aid
resources may be diverted to humanitarian and emergency responses which can impact on
development programs in areas not directly affected by a disaster.
Natural hazard risks also influence the type and scale of disaster relief and humanitarian
response required of aid agencies. Relatively infrequent, high-magnitude, natural disasters,

such as the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, are most likely to overwhelm the
capacities of local and national governments and to require significant international
humanitarian assistance.
With increasing recognition that disasters erode hard-won development gains, international
policymakers have focused on disaster risk reduction (such as the Hyogo Framework for
Action). In line with this trend, the Australian Government, through the Australian Agency
for International Development (AusAID), has placed greater emphasis on the reduction of
natural hazard risk in developing countries.
Improving our understanding of the frequency, location and magnitude of sudden-onset
natural disasters will help the Australian Government and AusAID plan and prepare for
natural disaster response (for example, through the strategic placement of emergency
supplies). Recognising the impact of disasters on the progress of development, the Australian
Government decided in 2007 to enhance the humanitarian response, preparedness and
capacity of partner governments. In particular, that decision recognised a need for better
natural hazard risk assessments.
Figure 1. Countries included in this study, colour-coded according to the priority their natural
hazard risk was given for the study. Primary focus countries are highlighted in red, countries
of interest in orange, and secondary focus countries in pale yellow. (Larger image GIF
260kb]).
In 2007, as part of this strategic approach, Geoscience Australias Natural Hazard Impacts
Project conducted a broad hazard risk assessment of the Asia-Pacific region for AusAID. The
assessment included earthquake, volcanic eruption, tsunami, cyclone, flood, landslide and
wildfire hazards, with particular attention given to countries the Australian Government
considered to be high priority, of interest or of secondary focus (figure 1).

Determining natural hazard risk in a development context

Disasters are not the inevitable consequence of natural hazards. A volcanic eruption on an
uninhabited Alaskan island is unlikely to be a disaster, but a
similar eruption in the densely populated AsiaPacific
region could be catastrophic.

For a natural hazard to become a natural disaster,

populations need to be exposed to the hazard. However, if
we analyse disasters, we find that the scale and impact of a
natural hazard is determined by inherent vulnerabilities
within populations. A magnitude 6 earthquake in New
Zealand (such as the 2007 Gisborne earthquake), is
unlikely to cause mass fatalities, as that country has strict
building codes. Yet an earthquake of the same magnitude
could lead to many fatalities in the developing countries of

the Asia-Pacific region if building codes are not enforced. To rewrite a familiar adage,
earthquakes dont kill people, buildings do.
A crucial aspect in the assessment of natural disaster risk is the metric used to define a
previous disaster and therefore the risk of future disasters. While the number of fatalities is
the typical metric used to classify disasters, this ignores the number of injured, homeless and
displaced people, the need for international humanitarian assistance and the economic impact.
This study uses significantly impacted population as the risk metric. This deliberately vague
term covers death, injury, displacement, prolonged loss of access to essential services and/or
shelter, and/or significant damage to agriculture, horticulture and industry.
Future work to improve our understanding of natural hazard risk in the AsiaPacific region
will need to test more specific risk metrics, particularly those most useful in an international
development and humanitarian context. It could be useful to calculate risk in terms of the
number of fatalities and injured, the extent of building destruction, the period of
compromised access to essential services (such as water, electricity, communications and
health), the impact on food supply (such as effect on the annual harvest) and/or the effect on
the economy.
A particularly useful risk metric, and one touched on in our study, is the risk of a
governments disaster response capabilities being overwhelmed and requiring external aid
assistance. The potential for this is proportional to the percentage of the population seriously
affected and the countrys level of development.
Figure 2. The convergence of high population density and active faults in Manila, the
Philippines. Movement on the Marikina Valley fault could have a devastating impact on
Manila, depending on the earthquake magnitude and epicentre. Population data are from
Landscan, with more intense colour signifying higher population density. The fault location is
from Nelson et al (2000). (Larger image [GIF 676kb]).
If a very small proportion of a developed countrys population is affected by a disaster,
internal resources can be readily mobilised for response and recovery. When cyclone Larry
hit northern Queensland, it seriously affected less than one per cent of Australias population
and Australia was well equipped to support those affected without external assistance. In
contrast, a similar percentage of Papua New Guineas population was directly affected by
cyclone Guba, but the response required significant foreign support in the post-disaster phase.
A final question concerns the priorities of the international aid community: should we be
most concerned about relatively frequent and lower impact hazards, such as the near-annual
flooding of the Mekong Delta in Southeast Asia, or comparatively rare but often catastrophic
disasters, such as the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami? Both types of events seriously
compromise development progress, and an all-hazards approach is optimal, but in a reality of
limited resources what event has the highest priority?

Natural hazard risk assessment

Geoscience Australias preliminary natural hazard risk assessment of the region aimed to help
AusAID identify countries and areas at high risk from one or more natural hazards. The

frequency of a range of sudden-onset natural hazards was determined and, allowing for data
constraints, an evaluation was made of potential disaster impact. Extra emphasis was placed
on relatively rare but high-impact events, such as the December 2004 tsunami, which might
not be well documented in the historical record.
Our assessment suggests that it seems inevitable that the Asia-Pacific region will see one or
more megadisasters, seriously affecting millions of people, during the 21st century.
Some researchers have predicted that an earthquake with a million fatalities could occur in
the Himalayan belt of South Asia and we would argue that megacities in China, Indonesia
and the Philippines are also candidates. From the available research, the case for volcanic
disasters on that scale has not been argued, but analysis suggests that millions could be
seriously affected by a large eruption in the Philippines or Indonesia. Finally, the population
explosion in the megadeltas of Asia (for example, Bangladesh), combined with increasing
vulnerability to climate change, indicates that a flood or cyclone event affecting tens of
millions of people is also likely.

Megacities with a very high earthquake risk

The 18 million residents of Manila in the Philippines dwell in an area particularly vulnerable
to earthquakesthe city has sustained heavy damage from earthquakes at least six times in
the past 400 years (Nelson et al 2000). In part, this results from movement on the Marikina
Valley fault system, which cuts through the northeastern part of the city (figure 2). Studies
suggest that magnitude 67 earthquakes are generated on this fault every 200 to 400 years
(Nelson et al 2000).
A combination of rapid urbanisation, location on a floodplain prone to amplified ground
motion and liquefaction, and frequent large earthquakes results in a high potential for an
earthquake to impact on a large proportion of Manilas population. Indeed, our analysis
suggests that Manila is the AsiaPacific megacity most at risk to earthquakes, with
magnitude 5 earthquakes occurring on average once every 37 years. A magnitude 5
earthquake centred near Manila is predicted to significantly impact on several hundreds of
thousands of people; a larger earthquake striking at Manilas centre could be catastrophic.
Across the AsiaPacific region, the countries with the largest total populations exposed to
very high earthquake hazard are China, India, Nepal, the Philippines and Burma, while other
megacities with a particularly high risk from earthquakes include Dhaka (Bangladesh) and
Beijing. Countries with a high percentage of their populations exposed to very high
earthquake hazard are Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Nepal, Burma and the Philippines.

Potential impact of dormant volcanoes

'The most dangerous situation of all is that of a large, unexpected explosive eruption from a
long-dormant volcano in a densely populated area' (Simkin 1993).
Our analysis suggests that 180 million people in the AsiaPacific region live within
50 kilometres of a volcano that has not been active in the past 40 years. Consequently, the
dangerous situation referred to by Simkin (1993) is prevalent in the region.

To illustrate the potential

impact of one of these longdormant volcanoes erupting
in the densely populated
Asia-Pacific region,
Geoscience Australia
developed a simple
simulation of the impact of
Indonesias Tambora eruption
on todays population. The
1815 eruption of Tambora
volcano, 300 kilometres east
of Bali, killed around 92 000
people. With the growth of
population during the 20th
century, the impact of the
same eruption today would
be catastrophic. This is
illustrated by the following
scenario, which uses ash thicknesses from Self et al (1984).
If the warning signs of an impending eruption were recognised and appropriate action taken,
more than 200 000 people would require evacuation from within 50 kilometres of the
volcano. The evacuation would provide protection from the most life-threatening of volcanic
hazards.
Assuming wind patterns similar to those during the 1815 eruption, around 8 million people
would be within range of deposits of at least 20 centimetres of ash during the eruption,
potentially collapsing around one-third of roofs. Roughly one-third of Indonesias population
would be within range of deposits of one centimetre of ash (figure 3). This relatively thin
layer could damage electrical equipment, disrupt power supplies, contaminate water sources,
cause health problems and significantly interrupt food production, industry and tourism. In
addition, at least one tsunami was triggered by the 1815 eruption, with a wave height of
4 metres near the volcano and 12 metres in East Java (Stothers 1984). Such a tsunami today
could cause extensive coastal damage.
Figure 3. The current population density of Indonesia overlaid by the ash-dispersal pattern
from the 1815 Tambora eruption. The area 100 kilometres from the volcano received between
50 and 100 centimetres of ash, and pyroclastic flows are thought to have extended about 30
kilometres from the volcano. More than 500 000 square kilometres of the Java Sea and
surrounding islands were covered by more than one centimetre of ash. Eruption details from
Self et al (1984). (Larger image [GIF 314kb]).
Similar eruption scenarios could be played out in many AsiaPacific countries, with
Indonesia and the Philippines having the greatest number of people exposed to very high
volcanic hazards. Geoscience Australias analysis suggests that volcanic disasters seriously
affecting more than 100 000 people can be expected about once a decade in Indonesia and
once every few decades in the Philippines. Volcanic disasters impacting on tens of thousands

of people in Papua New Guinea are expected about once a century, while Vanuatu has the
potential for a catastrophic volcanic disaster (one that affects at least one per cent of the
population) about twice in a century.

Low-lying coastal areas exposed to potential large

tsunamis
The December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami provided a catastrophic reminder that the Asia
Pacific region is far from immune to tsunami. The region is traversed by one-third of the
worlds subduction zones, capable of producing the worlds largest earthquakes and tsunamis.
Furthermore, many of the subduction zones are adjacent to densely populated low-lying
coastal communities.
Geoscience Australias broad assessment focused on the largest earthquakes (magnitude 9.0
to 9.5) generated in the subduction zones of the region at a frequency of around one in
1000 years. The number of people exposed to tsunamis was determined by using a very
coarse relationship between earthquake magnitude, proximity of affected coastlines, and
populations living close to sea level.
The results suggest that the most dangerous potential source of large tsunamis is at the
northern tip of the Bay of Bengal. A tsunami there would threaten several million people in
the low-lying coastal areas of Bangladesh, India and Burma. By individual country, Indonesia
has the highest population threatened by tsunamis, followed by Bangladesh and India.
While Pacific nations have considerably lower population densities, very high percentages of
their populations would be impacted by a tsunami generated from nearby subduction zones.
Up to 40% of Vanuatus population would be at risk in the event of a tsunami, followed by
more than 20% in Tonga. Many other Pacific island nations have more than 5% of their
populations similarly exposed.

Conclusion
Our preliminary assessment of natural hazard risk in the AsiaPacific region highlights the
potential for the region to experience a megadisaster affecting millions of people during the
coming century.
While the scale of such a disaster may seem greater than any recorded so far, we reached this
conclusion not only because the AsiaPacific region is home to intense geological and
meteorological activity, but also because of the regions burgeoning population, which has
increased more than fivefold during the 20th century. People in the region are increasingly
vulnerable because of trends such as rapid urbanisation and their tendency to concentrate in
areas especially prone to natural hazards.
Because of the threat natural disasters pose to the progress of development, natural hazard
risk management will continue to increase in importance in international development policy
in the AsiaPacific region.

PENILAIAN RISIKO BENCANA

Karakteristik Bencana
Bencana secara istilah dibedakan berdasar karakteristik fisik utama :
Penyebab : Alam atau ulah manusia.
Frekuensi : Berapa sering terjadinya.
Durasi : Beberapa durasinya terbatas, seperti pada ledakan, sedang lainnya mungkin lebih
lama seperti banjir dan epidemi.
Kecepatan onset : Bisa muncul mendadak hingga sedikit atau tidak ada pemberitahuan yang
bisa diberikan, atau bertahap seperti pada banjir (keculi banjir bandang), memungkinkan
cukup waktu untuk pemberitahuan dan mungkin tindakan pencegahan atau peringanan. Ini
mungkin berulang dalam periode waktu tertentu, seperti pada gempa bumi.
Luasnya dampak : Bisa terbatas dan mengenai hanya area tertentu atau kelompok
masyarakat tertentu, atau menyeluruh mengenai masyarakat luas mengakibatkan kerusakan
merata pelayanan dan fasilitas.
Potensi merusak : Kemampuan penyebab bencana untuk menimbulkan tingkat kerusakan
tertentu (berat, sedang atau ringan) serta jenis (cedera manusia atau kerusakan harta benda)
dari kerusakan.

Geografi Bencana
Area geografik yang nyata sehubungan dengan bencana dikatakan sebagai area kerusakan,
area dimana bencana menyerang. Dibagi :
Area kerusakan total : Dimana bencana paling merusak.
Area kerusakan tepi : Walau dampak bencana dirasakan, kerusakan dan atau cedera nyata
lebih ringan dibanding area kerusakan total.
Area penyaring : Area dekat area kerusakan dari mana bantuan dimulai secara segera dan
spontan.
Area bantuan terorganisir : Area darimana bantuan yang lebih resmi diberikan secara
selektif. Area ini mungkin meluas hingga mencakup bantuan masyarakat, regional, nasional
dan internasional.

Berdasar tingkat respons, bencana diklasifikasikan menjadi tiga tingkat (ACEP) :

Tingkat 1 : Sistem pengelolaan respons terhadap bencana lokal mampu bereaksi secara
efektif dan dapat mancakup kerusakan atau penderitaan.
Tingkat 2 : Sebagai tambahan terhadap respons lokal, dukungan diberikan oleh sumber
regional atau masyarakat atau negara sekitar.
Tingkat 3 : Melampaui kemampuan sumber lokal atau regional dan diperlukan bantuan
internasional.

Yang harus diingat :

-

Bencana bisa menimbulkan kerusakan masyarakat dan sumber daya yang diperlukan
untuk menghadapinya.

Bencana menyebabkan masalah pemulihan dan perbaikan jangka panjang. Bisa

melampaui kemampuan masyarakat beserta sumber daya dan atau fasilitasnya.

Bencana menyebabkan kematian, cedera dan kecacadan.

Pengelolaan Risiko Bencana

Pikirkan bahwa masyarakat dan lingkungannya adalah terancam terhadap bencana dan
bagaimana kesanggupan masing-masing melawan akibat dari kerusakan oleh bencana.

Risiko (risk) : Kemungkinan akan kehilangan yang bisa terjadi sebagai akibat kejadian
buruk, dengan akibat kedaruratan dan keterancaman.
Bahaya (hazard) : Potensi akan terjadinya kejadian alam atau ulah manusia dengan akibat
negatif.
Keterancaman (vulnerability) : Akibat yang timbul dimana struktur masyarakat, pelayanan
dan lingkungan sering rusak atau hancur akibat dampak kedaruratan. Adalah kombinasi
mudahnya terpengaruh (susceptibility) dan daya bertahan (resilience). Resilience adalah
bagaimana masyarakat mampu bertahan terhadap kehilangan, dan susceptibility adalah
derajat mudahnya terpengaruh terhadap risiko. Dengan kata lain, ketika menentukan
keterancaman masyarakat atas dampak kedaruratan, penting untuk memastikan kemampuan
masyarakat beserta lingkungannya untuk mengantisipasi, mengatasi dan pulih dari bencana.
Jadi dikatakan sangat terancam bila dalam menghadapi dampak keadaan bahaya hanya
mempunyai kemampuan terbatas dalam menghadapi kehilangan dan kerusakan, dan
sebaliknya bila kurang pengalaman menghadapi dampak keadaan bahaya namun mampu
menghadapi kehilangan dan kerusakan, dikatakan tidak terlalu terancam terhadap bencana
dan kegawatdaruratan.

High susceptibility + low resilience = high level of vulnerability.

High exposure to risk + limited ability to sustain loss = high vulnerability.
Low susceptibility + high resilience = low degree of vulnerability.
Ability to sustain loss + low degree of exposure = low vulnerability.

Jelaslah bahwa petugas harus mengenal golongan masyarakat, struktur dan pelayanan yang
mudah terancam, hingga dapat menjadikannya tahan terhadap kerusakan akibat kedaruratan.

Proses Pengelolaan Risiko Bencana

Dalam pengelolaan risiko bencana, bencana dijelaskan berkaitan dengan risikonya terhadap
masyarakat; dan dilakukan tindakan yang sesuai terhadap risiko yang diketahui.

Hal penting :
-

Berapa luas bencana melanda.

Berapa luas ancaman terhadap masyarakat dan lingkungan.

Pengelolaan risiko bencana adalah penerapan sistematik dari kebijaksanaan pengelolaan,

prosedur dan pelatihan terhadap :
-

Memastikan hal-hal terkait

Mengidentifikasi risiko

Menganalisis risiko

Menilai / mengevaluasi risiko

Mengatasi risiko

Pengamatan dan penelaahan harus merupakan proses berkesinambungan dalam pengelolaan

risiko, dan semua sistem tergantung pada komunikasi dan konsultasi.

Hal tsb. menjadi perangkat pengambil keputusan yang sistematik, logis dan praktis bagi
pengelola bencana. Gunanya untuk mendapatkan kegunaan yang mendasar bagi pengelola
bencana untuk mengurangi dampak dari bencana. Artinya pengelola bencana dapat :
1. Mengidentifikasi apa yang mungkin terjadi
2. Menganalisis kemungkinan hasil akhir
3. Menilai dampak
4. Menindak risiko (pencegahan/mitigasi, mempersiapkan, merespons dan pemulihan)
5. Memonitor proses

Pengelolaan Bencana Menyeluruh dan Terpadu

Pengelolaan bencana yang efektif memerlukan kombinasi empat konsep :

Atas semua bahaya

Menyeluruh

Terpadu

Masyarakat yang siap

Semua bahaya, maksudnya aturan yang disetujui dalam merancang mengatasi semua bahaya,
alam dan ulah manusia. Dari pada mengembangkan rencana dan prosedur berbeda untuk
masing-masing bahaya, rancangan tunggal pengelolaan harus dibuat dan digunakan dalam
menghadapi semua bahaya yang dihadapi masyarakat.

Pendekatan Menyeluruh
Empat dasar pengelolaan kegawatan dan bencana, masing-masing memerlukan program
pengelolaan (strategi) :
1. Pencegahan dan mitigasi
Peraturan dan persyaratan fisik untuk mencegah terjadinya bencana, atau untuk mengurangi
dampaknya.
2. Persiapan
Perencanaan dan program, sistem dan prosedur, pelatihan dan pendidikan untuk memastikan
bahwa bila bencana terjadi, sumber daya dan tenaga dapat segera dimobilisasi dan
diberdayakan dengan hasil terbaik. Termasuk pengembangan sistem peringatan dan
kewaspadaan, perencanaan organisasional, pelatihan dan pengujian petugas, peralatan,
perencanaan dan prosedur, serta pendidikan publik.
3. Respons
Kegiatan yang diambil mendahului atau segera setelah dampak bencana untuk meminimalkan
akibat, dan untuk memberikan bantuan segera, memulihkan dan mendukung masyarakat.
Termasuk rescue, pemulihan dan dukungan terhadap korban, informasi publik,
pemberian makanan, pakainan dan tempat berlindung.
4. Pemulihan
Pemulihan dan perbaikan jangka panjang atas masyarakat yang terkena. Merupakan proses
rumit dan lama.

Pendekatan Terpadu
Pengelolaan bencana efektif memerlukan kerjasama aktif antara berbagai fihak terkait.
Artinya semua organiasi dengan tugasnya masing-masing bekerja bersama dalam pengelolaan
bencana. Hubungan berbentuk kerjasama sangat penting.

Masyarakat yang siap

Adalah masyarakat yang masing-masing individunya waspada terhadap bahaya dan tahu
bagaimana melindungi dirinya, keluarganya serta rumahnya terhadap dampak dari bahaya.
Bila masing-masing dapat melakukan tindakan perlindungan terhadap dampak bahaya, akan
mengurangi keterancaman terhadap bencana dan kedaruratan.

Kegiatan pencegahan / mitigasi, persiapan, respons dan pemulihan yang harus dilakukan :
1. Pencegahan dan mitigasi :
2. Standar bangunan dan kemampuan PMK
3. Immunisasi penyakit
4. Rancang sanitasi
5. Pembuangan sampah / limbah
6. Program pendidkan masyarakat
7. Informasi media
8. Peringatan terhadap masyarakat

Persiapan :
1. Perencanaan, sistem dan prosedur
2. Pelatihan personil
3. Pengujian perencanaan, personil dan peralatan
Respons :

1. Pengaktifan sistem pengelolaan insidens

2. Pengaktifan sistem pengelolaan informasi dan sumberdaya
3. Mekanisme pendukung bagi staf
Pemulihan :
1. Proses debriefing
2. Menilai dan merubah perencanaan dan prosedur
3. Identifikasi dan pemanfaatan pengetahuan yang didapat

Kesimpulan Pengelolaan risiko bencana

Pengelolaan risiko bencana adalah pemanfaatan yang sistematik dari kebijaksanaan
pengelolaan, prosedur dan pelaksanaan dengan maksud mengurangi dampak bencana.
Merupakan perangkat pembuat keputusan yang logis dan praktis.

Proses Perencanaan Terhadap Bencana

(Risk Assessment / Penilaian Risiko)
1. Tentukan hal yang akan direncanakan
2. Tetapkan komite perencanaan
3. Lakukan penilaian risiko
4. Tentukan tujuan perencanaan
5. Tentukan pertanggungjawaban
6. Analisis sumberdaya
7. Kembangkan sistem dan prosedur
8. Tulis rencana
9. Latih tenaga
10. Tes rencana, tenaga dan prosedur

11. Tinjau ulang rencana

12. Perbaiki rencana

Hal yang akan direncanakan :

Hal yang akan direncanakan dalam menghadapi kegawatdaruratan harus diidentifikasi.
Komite perencanaan :
Fihak rumah sakit, fihak sistem kesehatan masyarakat termasuk kesehatan masyarakat dan
kesehatan mental, pelayanan darurat eksternal seperti ambulans, PMK dan polisi.
Lakukan analisis risiko bencana :
Termasuk analisis bahaya dan analisis keterancaman. Semua analisis akan membantu komite
perencanaan bencana menentukan sasaran dan prioritas perencanaan.
Penilaian risiko bencana berkelanjutan sepanjang proses perencanaan : Bahaya berubah,
tingkat keterancaman berubah, semua harus dimonitor dan dinilai secara tetap.
Tentukan tujuan perencanaan :
Berdasar pada hasil analisis risiko dan pengenalan strategi pengelolaan bencana yang
disetujui komite.
Tentukan pertanggungjawaban :
Memilih pertanggungjawaban dari semua fihak terkait : RS, petugas, dan pelaksana
kesehatan masyarakat lainnya.
Analisis sumberdaya :
Komite harus mengetahui apa yang akan dibutuhkan; dari pada hanya melihat apa yang
dipunyai. Bila apa yang dibutuhkan kurang dari apa yang tersedia, komite harus
mengidentifikasi sumber tenaga dan sarana yang tersedia yang dapat dipanggil seketika
dibutuhkan. Rencanakan kerjasama dengan fasilitas kesehatan regional atau nasional.
Ciptakan sistem dan prosedur :
Komite harus mengidentifikasi strategi untuk pencegahan dan mitigasi, penyiapan, respons
dan pemulihan akibat kegawatan major dan bencana. Ini termasuk sistem komando gadar RS,
sistem komunikasi, informasi publik, sistem pengelolaan informasi dan sumberdaya.
Tuliskan rencana :
Dokumen tertulis harus dibagikan pada semua yang akan menggunakannya. Dokumen harus
sederhana dan langsung sasaran, atau orang tidak dapat membaca atau memahaminya.

Latih persomil, uji perencanaan, personil dan prosedur :

Pelatihan personil serta pengujian perencanaan, sistem dan prosedur merupakan bagian vital
dari persiapan pengelolaan gadar atau bencana.
Kegiatan respons bencana memerlukan personil untuk bekerja diluar kegiatan dan
tanggungjawab hari-hari normalnya, dan melaksanakan tugas yang kurang familier. Untuk
menciptakan kejadian menjadi lebih sulit, berikan tidak hanya banyak tugas yang tidak
familer, namun mereka harus mendapatkan lingkungan yang sangat menekan, yang bahkan
pantas untuk menguji sistem dan personil yang sudah berpengalaman.
Dapat dimengerti mengapa personil wajib dilatih dan diuji secara rutin dalam tugas
pengelolaan bencananya. Personil juga memerlukan kesempatan untuk mempraktekkan tugas
dan tanggungjawab pengelolaan bencananya.
Selain itu, rencana yang belum diuji dan dinilai ulang mungkin lebih buruk dari pada
tidak ada rencana sama sekali. Hal ini akan membangun rasa keamanan yang salah pada
petugas dalam hal tingkat persiapan.
Tinjau ulang dan ubah perencanaan :
Perencanaan harus dinilai ulang dan diperbaiki secara berkala,dan harus dinyatakan dalam
perencanaan itu sendiri. Setiap saat, perencanaan atau bagian dari perencanaan, diaktifkan
untuk latihan atau dalam bencana sesungguhnya. Debriefing harus dilakukan untuk
mengenal kebutuhan perbaikan perencanaan, sistem dan prosedutr, dan untuk melatih
personil.
Sekali lagi, perencanaan adalah proses, tidak pernah berakhir. Perencanaan tertulis
adalah hanya sebuah hasil akhir dari proses perncanaan, namun bukan titik akhir, hanya
bagian dari proses perencanaan. Perencanaan tertulis adalah dokumen yang hidup yang harus
secara tetap diuji, dinilai ulang dan dipertbaharui.

Bagaimana bila :
Bagian penting dari proses perencanaan adalah pertanyaan dari komite : Bagaimana bila ;
Bagaimana bila ini atau itu terjadi, apa yang harus dilakukan, apa yang diperlukan, apa
dampaknya pada petugas dll.
Tidak mungkin untuk membuat rencana bagi semua kejadian, namun kegiatan komite
dalam memikirkan batasan kejadian beserta konsekuensinya, dan membahas pilihan
rancangan yang diperkirakan memiliki jangkauan luas dalam sistem persiapan, penting
dilakukan.

Didunia, kehilangan akibat bencana tetap meningkat walau investasi yang sangat besar dalam
tindakan pencegahan secara tehnik sudah dilakukan. Hambatan politik dan ekonomi
menyebabkan bahwa pendekatan tradisional dalam mendapatkan rasa aman terhadap bahaya

harus dinilai ulang. Tidak saatnya lagi mangatakan bahwa pencegahan terhadap proses
berbahaya secara umum dikatakan sebagai terbaik atau cara yang paling diinginkan dalam
menghadapi risiko. Pencegahan dan peningkatan resilience dari objek yang berpotensi
terkena adalah dua contoh penting lainnya dari bagaimana kerusakan akibat keadaan
berbahaya dapat dikurangi.
Konsep pilihan untuk mengatasi keadaan bahaya adalah menggunakan kebijaksanaan
berdasar risiko. Walau diarahkan pada bahaya, yang juga telah mencakup risiko, dijelaskan
sebagai fungsi dari empat faktor berikut :
1. Frekuensi terjadinya kejadian bahaya.
2. Intensitas kerusakan objek sasaran yang berpotensi terhadap risiko dengan distribusi /
kelompok khusus.
3. Keterancaman objek sasaran akan terkena oleh kerusakan.
4. Keterpaparan target sasaran terhadap bahaya.

Frekuensi dan kerusakan menunjukkan beratnya keadaan bahaya, keterancaman dan

keterpaparan sasaran terhadap risiko. Inilah kenapa ada perbedaan antara definisi sederhana
risiko sebagai hasil kemungkinan, dan perluasan kerusakan yang lebih menunjukkan sudut
pandang operator atau pelaksana. Bagaimanapun sudut pandang yang lebih sempit dengan
cepat menunjukkan bahwa frekuensi dan keterpaparan adalah sebanding dengan
kemungkinan, dimana intensitas dan keterancaman mengartikan kerusakan.

Penggunaan pengelolaan risiko akan berhasil bila informasi berikut tersedia :

1. Karakterisasi bahaya secara khusus.
2. Mengumpulkan dan mengklasifikasikan objek yang terancam dalam jangkauan proses
berbahaya.
3. Tampilan dampak kerusakan yang mungkin terjadi terhadap objek disaat kejadian.

Saat ini prinsip penilaian risiko dan pembuatan kebijaksanaan secara umum berdasar risiko
dipakai secara luas lintas disiplin dan lintas batas.

Evaluasi dan Persepsi Risiko

Kunci pendekatan berdasar risiko menghadapi bahaya diterima dalam bentuk tingkat rasa
aman yang memadai dan secara ekonomik. Baik definisi dari tingkat rasa aman yang
memadai dan kuantifikasi tampilan ekonomik tidak dapat dibuat hanya oleh para ahli. Nilai
dan tanggapan sosial mungkin merupakan faktor lebih penting dalam membentuk rasa aman
dari pada risiko nyata sendiri.
Satu masalah yang belum jelas adalah opini publik dalam proses keputusan. Ini
mungkin karena jarak antara ilmu sosial (termasuk proses evaluasi publik) dan ilmu
administratif atau tehnik (yang bertanggung jawab pada kebanyakan risiko nyata). Usaha saat
ini adalah menjembatani jarak tsb. dengan mengembangkan model yang seakurat mungkin
menunjukkan persepsi dan evaluasi publik akan risiko yang diharapkan hingga pembuat
keputusan dapat menggunakan hal ini. Dengan kata lain, dianjurkan bahwa pandangan publik
tentang evaluasi risiko secara normatif (dari pada emperik-deskriptif) akan memperbaiki
keputusan yang dibuat dalam pengelolaan bencana.

Pustaka :
1. Nature and Type of Disasters. Hospital Preparedness for Emergencies & Disasters.
Indonesian Hospital Association. Participan Manual. Jakarta 2003.
2. Disaster Risk Management. Hospital Preparedness for Emergencies & Disasters.
Indonesian Hospital Association. Participan Manual. Jakarta 2003.
3. Risk Management Planning. Hospital Preparedness for Emergencies & Disasters.
Indonesian Hospital Association. Participan Manual. Jakarta 2003.
4. Risk awareness and assessment. Living with risk A global review of disaster
reduction initiative. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.