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Unied growth theory

Unied growth theory was developed to address the inability of endogenous growth theory to explain key empirical regularities in the growth processes of individual
economies and the world economy as a whole. Endogenous growth theory was satised with accounting for empirical regularities in the growth process of developed
economies over the last hundred years. As a consequence
it was not able to explain the qualitatively dierent empirical regularities that characterized the growth process
over longer time horizons in both developed and less developed economies. Unied growth theories are endogenous growth theories that are consistent with the entire
process of development, and in particular the transition
from the epoch of Malthusian stagnation that had characterized most of the process of development to the contemporary era of sustained economic growth.

and technological progress to the enhancement of human


capital formation and income per capita, paving the way
for the emergence of sustained economic growth.

The theory further explores the dynamic interaction between human evolution and the process of economic development and advances the hypothesis that the forces of
natural selection played a signicant role in the evolution
of the world economy from stagnation to growth. The
Malthusian pressures have acted as the key determinant
of population size and conceivably, via natural selection,
have shaped the composition of the population as well.
Lineages of individuals whose traits were complementary to the economic environment generated higher levels of income, and thus a larger number of surviving ospring, and the gradual increase in the representation of
their traits in the population contributed to the process of
Unied growth theory was rst advanced by Oded Galor development and the take-o from stagnation to growth.
and his co-authors who were able to characterize in a sin- Unied Growth Theory sheds light on the divergence in
gle dynamical system an initial stable Malthusian equilib- income per capita across the globe during the past two
rium which due to the evolution of latent state variables, centuries. It identies the factors that have governed the
ultimately vanishes endogenously, causing a transitional transition from stagnation to growth and have thus congrowth take o before the system gradually converges to
tributed to the observed worldwide dierences in ecoa modern growth steady-state equilibrium. The Malthu- nomic development. It highlights the persistent eects
sian state is characterized by slow technological progress
that variations in historical and prehistorical conditions
and population growth, where the benets of technologi- have had on the composition of human capital and ecocal progress are oset by population growth. In the modnomic development across countries. Finally, it uncovers
ern growth state technological progress does not encour- the forces that have led to the emergence of convergence
age population growth but human capital accumulation
clubs.
instead which then further spurs technological progress.
The theory captures in a single analytical framework
the main characteristics of the process of development:
(i) the epoch of Malthusian stagnation that characterized most of human history, (ii) the escape from the
Malthusian trap, (iii) the emergence of human capital formation in the process of development, (iv) the onset of the
demographic transition, (v) the origins of the contemporary era of sustained economic growth, and (vi) the divergence in income per capita across countries.

1 References
Galor, Oded (2011). Unied Growth Theory.
Princeton: Princeton University Press. ISBN 9780-691-13002-6.

Unied growth theory suggests that the transition from


stagnation to growth has been an inevitable by-product of
the process of development. It argues that the inherent
Malthusian interaction between the rate of technological
progress and the size and composition of the population
accelerated the pace of technological progress and ultimately raised the importance of education in coping with
the rapidly changing technological environment. The rise
in industrial demand for education brought about signicant reductions in fertility rates. It enabled economies to
divert a larger share of the gains from factor accumulation
1

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