CPO FUTURES

DAILY PREVIEW
December 12, 2013
CPO Futures 3rd month daily chart

Fundamental
Palm oil prices closed lower for the third consecutive day as investors
continue to ponder sluggish export data. Investors sentiment were further
dampen amid expectation that major importer, India, may reduce demand
during the winter season. Moreover, a bumper crop of competing soyoil
weighed prices down. Nevertheless, prices remain well-supported as the
rainy season is expected to dampen output of the tropical oil. NYMEX crude
oil dropped from a six-week high after gasoline and diesel inventories
jumped more than forecasted last week as refineries increased output. The
decline was also in line with retreating US stock market as investors were
worried that the Federal Reserve may soon trim its stimulus measures after
a conclusion was arrived to resolve the budget deal. On the other hand,
soyoil registered stellar performance amid bargain hunting activities after
prices tumbled for three consecutive sessions to settle at its bottommost
point in two months. Expect palm oil futures to trade higher today in unison
with gains in the rival soyoil contract. Seasonal factors which will deplete
inventory levels will also boost prices.
Technicals
Futures prices shaved 8 points to close at 2631. Trading activities of the
day were depicted through the formation of a second consecutive black
shooting star whereby sellers overpowered buyers. Prices now settle in par
with its 20 day moving average, suggesting support at the 2628 level.
Expect prices to open and trade higher today, borrowing strength from the
rival soyoil market. As such, support and resistance can be eyed at 2620
and 2670 respectively.
Strategy
Trade may long with a stop on or below 2620.

Source: Bloomberg
Contract
Sett
DEC 13
2,599
JAN 14
2,617
FEB 14
2,631
MAR 14
2,636
APR 14
2,636
MAY 14
2,635
JUL 14
2,626
SEP 14
2,615
NOV 14
2,601
JAN 15
2,603
MAR 15
2,618
MAY 15
2,620
JUL 15
2,615
SEP 15
2,618
NOV 15
2,618
Export Est
Period
1 - 10th days
1 - 15th days
1 - 20th days
1 - 25th days
Full month

Chg
-9
-9
-8
-7
-6
-4
-3
-2
-4
-3
-3
-7
-10
-10
-10

High
2,634
2,650
2,653
2,650
2,647
2,638
2,628
2,614
2,610
2,615
2,620
2,620
-

NOV13
ITS
SGS
472,321
496,237
744,975
734,476
1,004,880
975,011
1,229,580 1,230,878
1,449,664 1,472,694

Low
2,615
2,627
2,632
2,633
2,630
2,621
2,611
2,600
2,602
2,614
2,612
2,611
-

Vol
-

953
12,485
4,353
1,076
1,489
477
488
726
45
2
11
12
22,117
DEC'13
ITS
378,579
-

SGS
366,898
-

O/I chg
O/I chg
Value USD
-580
7.47 Mn
-767
-15.56 Mn
371
7.57 Mn
378
7.72 Mn
201
4.11 Mn
447
9.13 Mn
14
.28 Mn
-133
-2.7 Mn
498
10.04 Mn
-15
-.3 Mn
2
.04 Mn
10
.2 Mn
12
.24 Mn
0
. Mn
0
. Mn
438
28.25 Mn
Change (m-o-m)
ITS
SGS
-19.8%
-26.1%
-

Oct13
1,972,249
1,845,312
1,659,105
22,503

Dec Chg
(Mean)
-10.46%
6.08%
-5.82%
131.00%

Open Int
1,701
11,698
39,481
28,874
7,648
14,493
8,590
6,346
21,698
3,627
1,065
7,872
1,726
213
42
155,074

Malaysian Palm Oil Board Statistic

Production
Stocks
Export
Import
Commodity Futures (3rd month)
Overnight close
CPO
2631
Dalian Olein
6230
Soybean Oil (realtime)
40.40
WTI Crude (realtime)
97.44
CRB Index (realtime)
281.02

Dec12
1,780,153
1,575,103
2,627,419
1,650,192
+/-8
4
0.29
-1.07
2.15

Sep13
1,912,237
1,784,397
1,605,209
19,483
1d Chg (%)
-0.30%
0.06%
-0.10%
0.03%
0.77%

3m Chg
12.77%
8.23%
-5.43%
-10.28%
-3.32%

Nov'13
1,861,114
1,977,895
1,520,712
14,859
6m Chg
7.13%
-2.60%
-15.76%
1.63%
-1.40%

Previous Week
High
Low
2,646
2,570
2,662
2,595
2,673
2,605
2,675
2,609
2,673
2,610
2,671
2,608
2,657
2,595
2,644
2,583
2,630
2,566
2,631
2,573
2,630
2,604
2,635
2,591
2,632
2,600
2,633
2,610
2,615
2,606

Cash CPO (MYR/MT)

DEC 13

Spreads
Dec13-Jan14
Dec13-Feb14
Jan14-Feb14
Jan14-Mar14
Feb14-Mar14
Mar14-Apr14

Last
-18
-41
-13
-17
-4
1

Last Bid
2600

Bid
-16
-22
-5
-1

Offer
-13
-10
-3
1

Last Offer
2630

Vol
0
0
656
116
2,945
194

Last
3.2255
12035

1d Chg
0.55%
0.96%

Change (y-o-y)
ITS
SGS
-24.9%
-29.0%
-

MYR 111

2000

1000
3/8/2013

6/8/2013
Cash CPO (LHS)

9/8/2013
Margin (RHS)

RBD Palm Olein (LHS)

Crude Degummed Soybean Oil (CDSBO)/

Expected RBD Palm Olein (RBDPL) Basis (per Tonne)
Dec
1400
1,666,441
1200
2,098,151
1000
1,432,207
800
34,324

6m Chg
1.84%
21.29%

Overnight Leads
Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher on Wednesday on export demand for
U.S. soybeans and soymeal and a late-session flurry of technical buying, traders said. - Reuters

Kenanga Deutsche Futures Sdn Bhd (353603-X)

Dealing Desk: (603) 2162 6000 Fax: (603) 2164 9798 Email: futures@kenanga.com.my

USD 53.1
350
300
250
200

600

150

400

100

200

50

0
6/25/2013
Spread (RHS)

9/17/2013

CDSBO USD (LHS)

12/10/2013

RBDPL USD (LHS)

30 Days
19.95%

60 Days 90 Days
17.33% 18.02%

40
30D Volalitity (%)

60D Volatility (%)

90D Volatility (%)

30

20

10
12/10/2012

3/10/2013

Disclaimer: This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. Kenanga Deutsche Futures
Sdn Bhd shall not liable for any negligence, default or lack of care and accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document.

Avg
5
8
3
4
2
3

3000

Relative to FCPO
3m Chg
6m Chg
0.00%
0.00%
-4.02%
-9.07%
-16.14%
-21.37%
-20.44%
-5.13%
-14.27%
-7.96%
3m Chg
-1.70%
5.06%

30 Day
Low
-50
-55
-17
-20
-5
-3

Refiner's Margin (RBDPO - Cash CPO)

3rd mth FCPO Volatility

Currency
USDMYR
USDIDR

High
12
15
5
9
5
9

3m Chg 6m Chg
9.6%
8.3%

6/10/2013

9/10/2013

12/10/2013