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Analysis
income gains in the last two decades. Yet, the Western
middle class has not. The Western middle class no longer
has any reason to put up with the self-regarding elites, and
political entrepreneurs both from the right and the left have
seized on that temperament.
Then there are the cracks and omissions in the liberal moral
matrix. In his brilliant book, The Righteous Mind, Jonathan
Haidt demonstrates that thinking of morality only in terms
of harm and fairness is a minority point of view around the
world, possibly even in the West.4 He shows that people
also care about other considerations such as authority and
sanctity, themes not subsumed under the harm- and fairnesscentric notions of morality. Today, this matters even more
because the pace of change has accelerated, and at times of
rapid change, people yearn for an effective compass, the lack
of which leads to anomy.5 It is not surprising that people
yearn for some predictability and familiarity. If liberalism
cannot appreciate that urge, and respond to it effectively, we
should not be surprised that people trade certainty of process
for certainty of outcomes, and pave the way for illiberal
constellations.
In addition to the intellectual reasons for taking illiberalism
seriously, there are also political ones. We study each other
and draw inspiration and occasionally material support
from like-minded parties across national borders.6 How the
debate about the nature of successful governance will be
settled in one country has repercussions for others.
Let us consider a counterfactual. After the Charlie Hebdo
attacks, Timothy Garton Ash thundered that We do not
resolve our differences by violence. We do it by speech, and
invited the European media to republish Charlie Hebdos
cartoons featuring Mohammed and other revered figures
because Thats what satire does.7 Ash logic was that people
should get used to it and grow a thicker skin. There is,
obviously, no doubt whatsoever that the perpetrators of the
Paris attacks acted in the most heinous manner, and deserve
to be universally condemned. Yet, imagine a scenario
where, instead of killing 12 people, 12 Muslims kill them4 Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind, Vintage, 2012.
5 In Pursuit of a Global Civics, Hakan Altinay, Blue Dot, UNESCO MGIEP, 2015.
6 For one recent account of cross-border consequences, see The Russian Connection by
Peter Kreko, Political Capital: Budapest, 2014.
7 Europes media must unite and stand against the assassins veto by Timothy Garton Ash, The
Globe and Mail, January 8, 2015.
Analysis
dissent or due process. There are no instances where he has
admitted to having learned something from his detractors.
He is explicit about viewing the judiciary and other checks
and balances as hindrance. For years, he has demonized
journalists and media groups who question his tactics.
Countless journalists have been fired, and even arrested; the
largest media group in the country has been fined $1 billion.
While Erdoans sympathizers argue that he is authoritarian,
but he is successful, Erdoans core team argues that he is
successfulbecausehe is authoritarian. Liberals from Turkey
and Europe have not yet made the case that he is successful
despite his authoritarianism. Turkey needs a different strain
of liberalism, as does the rest of Europe.
To be sure, much of Turkeys success has more to do with
a favorable constellation of circumstances than Erdoans
Midas touch: Turkey refinanced its high public debt of 2002
with a much lower interest rate made possible through
the global liquidity glut and increased its creditworthiness
because of its EU membership prospects. Without the fiscal
space made possible by these two developments, the health
care expansion, social policies, and infrastructure upgrades
would have been impossible. The World Bank argues that
the policies and practices that enabled this leap will not be
sufficient to allow Turkey to break out of the middle income
trap. They call attention to low female participation in the
labor force as one crucial impediment. It is also difficult
to overlook the opportunity cost of demonizing the most
creative circles in the society. For example, the Gezi Park
protests were frequented by actors, directors, and scriptwriters from Turkeys phenomenally successful soap operas.
Analysis
and nationally. That is not as easy a task as we may assume.
Truly recognizing the challenge would be a good step
toward starting to address it.
About GMF
The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) strengthens
transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and global challenges
and opportunities in the spirit of the Marshall Plan. GMF contributes
research and analysis and convenes leaders on transatlantic issues
relevant to policymakers. GMF offers rising leaders opportunities to
develop their skills and networks through transatlantic exchange, and
supports civil society in the Balkans and Black Sea regions by fostering
democratic initiatives, rule of law, and regional cooperation. Founded
in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-profit organization through a gift from
Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF
maintains a strong presence on both sides of the Atlantic. In addition
to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has offices in Berlin,
Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, and Warsaw. GMF also
has smaller representations in Bratislava, Turin, and Stockholm.