Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
www.landcommodities.com
Executive Summary
Chapter 1
An Introduction to the Relationship between Agricultural Commodity Prices, Cropland Availability and
Farmland Values
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
The Resource Scarcity Debate Is the Planets Carrying Capacity at or Near a Tipping Point?
The Malthusian Debate
The Current State of the Debate
Technological Innovation and its Implications with Respect to Farmland Values in the
Foreseeable Future
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
The Limiting Effects of Diminishing Returns and the Implications for Global Food Production
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Price Elasticity of Demand for Food and the Implications for Future Agricultural Commodity Prices and
Farmland Values
Chapter 9
Fossil Fuel Shortages and the Potential Consequences for the Agricultural Economy
Trends in Biofuel Consumption and the Increasing Correlation between Energy and Food
Peak Oil and the Implications for Agricultural Commodity Prices and Farmland Values
Supply Side Implications of Peak Oil and Gas
Chapter 10
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
Conclusion
Executive Summary
CHAPTER 1
Land is scarce and will become scarcer as the world has to double food output
to satisfy increased demand by 2050. With limited land and water resources,
this will automatically lead to increased valuations of productive land.
Joachim von Braun, Director General at the International Food Policy Research Institute, 2009
As with all assets - from commodities to real estate farmland values are dictated by the relationship between
supply (measured by the per capita availability of farmland)
and demand (for the limited supply available). The recent
global financial crisis has shown that other market factors
such as the availability of credit (which influences demand
by enabling it) and negative buyer sentiment can also have
an effect in the short-term.
Over the long-term however, supply and demand
fundamentals will dictate trends. In the words of legendary
long-term value investor, Warren Buffett: In the short-term,
the market is a voting machine, in the long-term the market
is a weighing machine.16 Buffet actually made his first ever
investment in farmland. With savings from his two paper
rounds, he spent $1,200 on 40 acres of Nebraska farmland,
which he leased to a tenant farmer.17
On the demand side of the equation, farmland values are
driven primarily by the profitability of agricultural enterprise.
The greater the income yield a farmer is able to earn from
farming activities, the higher the price they will be prepared
to pay for the land upon which that yield is derived. This
relationship applies for both farmer landowners and investor
landowners. Tenant farmers will be prepared to pay higher
rents on land if the financial incentive to do so exists and
investors will be prepared to pay a higher price for land as
yield ratios improve.
170%
140%
110%
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
36%
20
04
90%
10
CHAPTER 1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
Figure 1.3: Trends in land prices and rental rates in Japan between 1955 and 2000
1000
2000
1800
900
1600
Rent
800
1400
1200
700
Rent (yen/are)
Price
1000
600
800
500
600
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology and Newcastle University (UK), Published in Agricultural Economics, 2008
11
CHAPTER 1
1,400, 000
1,350, 000
1,300, 000
1,250, 000
20
07
20
01
19
96
19
91
19
86
19
81
19
76
19
71
19
66
1,200, 000
19
61
12
CHAPTER 1
13
CHAPTER 2
The best sector in the world that I know right now is probably agriculture.
Everybody should become a farmer. Farming is going to be one of the greatest
industries of our time for the next 20 to 30 years. Im convinced that farmland
is going to be one of the best investments of our time
Jim Rogers, 2009 (Jim Rogers cofounded the Quantum Fund with George Soros which gained more than
4,000% in 10 years, while the S&P rose less than 50%.)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
15
CHAPTER 2
Soybeans
Area increase
Yield growth
4%
3%
Maize
2%
Cotton
Wheat
Rice
1%
0%
Figure 2.3: Changes in the real prices of major agricultural commodities from 1900 to 2008
240
330
280
200
1951 Rebuilding after World War II
230
160
180
140
120
130
Index reference: 1977-1979=199
100
80
80
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2008
16
CHAPTER 2
75%
121%
215%
Figure 2.4: Global trends in cereal and meat production from 1950 to 2009
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
380
40
Production per capita (kg)
340
300
20
17
Wheat
375
250
125
08
R
A
M
FE
08
08
08
N
JA
07
EC
D
O
N
CT
07
07
07
P
SE
JU
07
07
07
N
JU
PR
AY
07
68 Days
Rice
825
550
275
08
PR
08
R
A
M
08
08
N
FE
08
JA
07
EC
07
O
N
SE
U
A
CT
07
07
G
07
07
JU
JU
AY
07
Corn
225
150
75
08
08
JU
08
AY
M
08
R
PR
A
A
M
08
08
FE
08
JA
N
07
EC
D
07
V
N
O
07
CT
O
SE
P
U
A
07
07
JU
18
Rice
Coarse grains
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
19
CHAPTER 3
0.22 hectares
0.42 hectares
21
08
20
75
50
19
25
19
00
19
75
19
50
18
18
00
75
18
50
17
17
17
17
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
25
00
1000
07
200,000
75
2000
50
400,000
25
3000
00
4000
600, 000
75
800, 000
50
5000
25
6000
1,000, 000
00
1,200, 000
75
7000
50
1,400, 000
25
00
25
18
Source: Arable land figures between 1961 and 2007 - Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2009; Arable land figures between 1700
and 1960 - Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2006; Population figures United Nation Population Division, 1999, 2007
This implies that whilst in the more distant past there may
have been enough space to expand cropland, this will be
less the case in the future. Indeed, looking at Figure 3.4
which plots the rate of change in the global population
against the rate of increase in the area of agricultural
land, this is glaringly apparent. In the earlier portion of the
graph, human population and farmland increased roughly
in step with each other. During the 50s the two trend
lines diverge very markedly. This is the point at which the
Green Revolution took over from cropland expansion as
the dominant means by which the human carrying capacity
of the planet has increased. However, as later sections
will show, the productivity gains delivered by the Green
Revolution are now also in decline.
0.45
175%
0.40
150%
0.35
0.30
125%
0.25
100%
0.20
Population in millions
Agricultural Land Mha
75%
0.15
50%
0.10
25%
0.05
0%
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2006
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
22
1970
1980
1990
2000
23
24
CHAPTER 4
The use of foodstuffs to make energy substitutes corn and sugar for
ethanol and palm oil and soy oil for biodiesel has created a fresh layer of
demand. Supply is inelastic. Its not easy to increase the acreage to produce
crops. Effectively your supply curve is fixed and your demand curve is moving
to the right.
Edward Hands, Portfolio Manager at Commerzbank
110 million
45 million
26
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Wheat
Coarse
grains
Rice
Oilseeds
Veg.
oils
Figure 4.2: Comparison of OECD-FAO commodity price forecasts for the period 2008-2017 with actual 2008 price peaks
(Price units: US$ / metric ton)
Commodity
Average Price
1998 - 2007
OECD-FAO Forecasts
2008 Price
Peak
% Increase Over
1998-2007 Average
OECD-FAO Forecast
Average Price 2008 - 2017
% Increase Over
1998-2007 Average
Wheat
153
440
187%
234
53%
Rice
249
1015
307%
343
38%
Corn
107
287
169%
177
66%
Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats, 2008; International Monetary Fund, 2009
Furthermore, as Figure 4.3 indicates, even when comparing average April 2009 prices, the OECD-FAO forecasts look conservative.
This is especially pertinent given the fact that the current price levels are already touching or exceeding the OECD-FAO forecasted
10 year average despite the world being in the throes of the worst contraction in global GDP growth since the Second World War.
Figure 4.3: Comparison of OECD-FAO commodity price forecasts for the period 2008-2017 with actual prices in 2009
(Price units: US$ / metric ton)
Commodity
Wheat
153
233
53%
Rice
249
577
132%
Corn
107
169
58%
Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats, 2008; International Monetary Fund, 2009
27
Figure 4.4: Average annual percentage increase in yield growth in key agricultural commodities between
1965 and 2006
Category
Wheat
Rice
Maize
Soybeans
World
2.0%
1.7%
1.8%
1.5%
High income
1.6%
0.9%
1.6%
1.3%
Middle income
2.0%
1.9%
2.6%
2.8%
Low income
2.6%
2.0%
1.1%
1.4%
3.8%
1.8%
2.9%
1.9%
0.1%
0.0%
0.8%
-0.1%
2.0%
2.5%
2.6%
1.3%
2.5%
1.2%
2.7%
3.0%
South Asia
2.6%
2.1%
1.6%
1.5%
Sub-Saharan Africa
2.2%
0.7%
0.7%
3.2%
Income level
Region
28
29
CHAPTER 5
Is the current food crisis just another market vagary? Evidence suggests
not; we are undergoing a transition to a new equilibrium, reflecting a new
economic, climatic, demographic and ecological reality.
Japanese Prime Minister, Taro Aso, 2009
3.5%
0.5%
31
3%
2%
1%
0%
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
0.28
N
H2O
60
0.24
40
0.20
20
0.16
4%
0.12
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
32
80
60
40
20
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1982
2002
Developing countries
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
East and Southeast Asia
South Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2008; M. World Bank, 2007
700%
167%
33
5000
4837
4675
4512
4350
1961
1970
1980
1990
2000
2007
2.1%
0.6%
1.1%
34
Figure 5.7: A comparison of recent and historic average annual yield growth in the developing world
Annual % change in yields, 1965-99, 2000-08
3.5
3.0
1965-1999
2000-2008
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Wheat
Rice
Maize
Soybeans
35
CHAPTER 6
1 billion
225,000
37
60
53
1999-2001
2003-2005
44
40
53
35
20
0
1990-92
1994-96
0
1750
1800
1850
Developed countries
1900
1950
2000
2050
Developing countries
17%
900 million
Number of malnourished
people in the world
38
900
800
700
600
1990-92
1995-97
2003-05 2007
1995-97
2003-05
2007
39
Another trend of population dynamics relates to longterm trends for ageing. A consequence of trends in age
demographics is that as the proportion of adults relative
to children increases, food needs rise. As the population
pyramids for China in Figure 6.5 illustrate, adult population
increased relative to the number of children between
199002 and 200305. This trend is most pronounced in
countries with already large populations and/or countries
with high population growth rates.
Males
Females
Age
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
80
60
40
20
Millions
20
40
60
80
Millions
2005
Males
0.6
Females
Age
80+
0.5
75-79
70-74
0.4
65-69
60-64
0.3
55-59
50-54
45-49
0.2
40-44
35-39
0.1
30-34
25-29
0.0
20-24
15-19
-0.1
10-14
5-9
-0.2
1990-92 to 1995-97
1995-97 to 2003-05
0-4
80
60
40
20
Millions
20
40
60
80
Millions
40
$5 billion
400
300
200
100
1961
1970
1980
1990
2000
Forecast
2007
12
Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2009
0
2007
Year on year
2008
2009
Quarter-on-quarter annualised
41
75
50
25
0
1700
1800
Other
1900
Forest
1980
Pasture
Cropland
150
100
50
0
1980
1985
Meat
1990
1995
Horticulture
2000
2005
Cereals
42
7 kilograms
16,000 litres
35-40%
Figure 6.11: Comparative growth rates for production of selected animal products and feed grain use in developing
countries between 1961 and 2001
1700
1500
Index: 1961=100
1300
1100
900
700
500
300
100
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
43
84%
Forecasted increase in the
191%
Figure 6.12: Past and projected trends in consumption of meat and milk in developing and developed countries
Food demand
Developing countries
Developed countries
1980
1990
2002
2015
2030
1980
1990
2002
2015
2030
14
18
28
32
37
73
80
78
83
89
34
38
46
55
66
195
200
202
203
209
47
73
137
184
252
86
100
102
112
121
114
152
222
323
452
228
251
265
273
284
44
Figure 6.13: The relationship between meat consumption and per capita income in 2002
140
USA
120
Russian
Federation
100
Brazil
80
China
60
Japan
40
Thailand
20
India
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
High-income countries
Low-income countries
Cereals 55
Others 11
Others 19
45
50%
Projections
900
Kcalories/person/day
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1962
1970
1980
1990
2000
2015
2030
2050
Industrialized
Transition
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia
For past,
three-year
averagesOrganisation
centered onof
the
Source:
Food
and Agriculture
the United Nations, 2006
indicated year. Livestock products include meats,
eggs, milk and dairy products (excluding butter).
46
Figure 6.16: Global demographic spread of income groups on a country by country basis in 2008
High income
$11,500 or more
Middle, upper
$3,700 - $11,500
Middle, lower
$900 - $3,700
Low income
$900 or less
389%
47
Figure 6.17: Changes in historical and projected composition of human diet and the nutritional value
Kilocalories per
capita/day
Other
Pulses
2500
Roots and
tubers
Meat
Sugar
2000
Vegetable
oils
1500
Other
cereals
1000
Wheat
500
Rice
0
1964-66
1997-99
2030
South Asia
29
2.8
57
2.4
Sub-Saharan Africa
37
4.4
59
2.8
78
2.1
Developing countries
57
3.1
Developed countries
73
0.6
World
49
2.2
48
Projections
Billion people
5
4
3
Rural
2
Urban
1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
500
450
U=20%
400
350
U=25%
300
250
U=30%
200
150
100
400
600
800
1000
1200
278%
85%
Grain products
Caloric sweeteners
Fats and oils
Other foods (including
eggs and other dairy products)
0
10
15
20
25
Food lost
49
4000
3000
43%
2000
1000
0
Field
Household
Harvest losses
Animal feed
26%
30%
50
Figure 6.23: Volatility of production around trend between 1960 and 2007 for various food commodities
Bananas
Sugar
Tea
Rice
Wheat
Palm oil
Maize
Soybeans
Cocoa
Coffee
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
30%
51
Figure 6.24: Deviations from trend in wheat and coarse grain yields between 1995 and 2007
Tonnes per hectares
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Australia
2000
2001
Canada
2002
2003
EU27
2004
2005
2006
2007
United States
Note: Yield trends are estimated over these years to be 0.7% for the EU (27), 1.0% for Canada, and 2.6% for the US, and assumed to be 0% for Australia.
Source: OECD Secretariat, 2009; Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2009
100
80
60
40
20
0
Africa
East Asia
Europe and
central Asia
South Asia
None
Source: World Bank, 2008; Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2008
52
53
CHAPTER 7
If there is climate change taking place, the best way to participate is through
agriculture. Jim Rogers, 2009
Feeding the majority of the poor and vulnerable populations in Africa,
while preserving the natural resource base and the environment, is one of
the most pressing development challenges of the twenty-first century.
Dr. Akin Adesina, Vice President of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa and Associate Director of
the Rockefeller Foundation, 2009
Estimated actual
global mean
temperature, C
0.6
14.6
0.4
14.4
0.2
14.2
0.0
14.0
- 0.2
13.8
- 0.4
13.6
- 0.6
1880
13.4
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
55
Figure 7.2: Trends in rainfall variability in the Sahel region of Sub-Saharan Africa
Index
100
75
50
25
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
250
40%
Cyclones
Floods
35%
200
30%
150
Earthquakes
25%
100
20%
50
15%
10%
1950
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
56
26
400
350
300
250
Human-induced
200
150
2%
14%
100
1980s
50
0
1900
86%
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2010
98%
Earthquakes
All disasters
11%
20%
1990s
80%
89%
Number of emergencies
70
60
27%
2000s
50
40
30
20
73%
73%
10
0
Sudden onset
Socio-economic
Slow onset
1981
1985
1989
Human-induced disasters
1993
1997
2001
Natural disasters
2005
Total
57
have significant impacts on yield. Agricultural productivity could actually decrease during the next 30 years, rather
than increase as more optimistic forecasts are predicting.148
Against a background of rising demand this could have
significant implications for commodity prices in the coming
years. In their words:
Global temperatures are expected to rise by 0.4 degrees
Celsius between now and 2030. This could lead to an
overall decline in agricultural productivity of between 1 and
10 percent by 2030 (compared with a counterfactual where
average global temperatures remained stable), with India,
Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Latin America being most
affected.149
10%
TEMPERATURE CHANGE
Over most land areas, warmer and fewer cold days and nights,
warmer and more frequent hot days and nights
Damage to crops
Soil erosion
Inability to cultivate land due to waterlogging of soils
DROUGHT
Affected areas increase
Land degradation
Crop damage and failure
Increased livestock deaths
Increased risk of wildfire
Damage to crops
Windthrow (uprooting) of trees
Damage to coral reefs
58
15%
27%
+1C
+2C
+3C
+4C
+5C
+6C
Food
Falling crop yields in many areas, particulary developing regions
Water
Ecosystems
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Risk of abrupt and major irreversible changes
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
0C
+1C
+2C
+3C
+4C
+5C
+6C
59
Figure 7.10: Projected losses in food production due to climate change by 2080
-15%
0%
+15%
+35%
No data
Source: Cline et al., 2007; Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2009
60
2030
8000
70-80%
2015
6000
2002
4000
1990
1980
2000
1970
1960
Increases, over
2002 water
requirements,
needed to eradicate
poverty by 2030 and
2050 respectively
27%
22-32%
61
-3.0
1980
1978
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2008
Cumulative loss
Hundred thousand
Hundred thousand
million tonnes
million tonnes
1992
Increase
1.8 billion
-1
-20
-2
-40
Loss
-3
-60
-4
-80
-5
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2003
62
low
moderate
high
very high
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.8
25%
63
1.7-12%
Source: United Nation Environment Program, 2007; Viviroli, D., Weingartner, R. et al., 2003
64
Impacts of Drought
In the case of rainfed crops a key inhibitor of productivity
is drought. Having risen steeply in recent years, droughts
are forecast to increase in many regions of the world as a
result of climate change. Apart from their effect on arable
crops, droughts have also been particularly devastating on
livestock production. In Africa for example, data from nine
major droughts in the study countries between 1981 and
2000 resulted in an average livestock loss of 40% with the
lowest recorded loss being 22% of animals and the highest
loss being 90%, as seen in Figure 7.16.189
40%
US$1.1-55 billion
Annual cost of crop losses due
to alien invasive species
Southern Ethiopia
1983-1984
45-90% of cattle
18% of sheep and goats
1991-1993
42% of cattle
1995-1997
46% of cattle
41% of sheep and goats
1998-1999
62% of cattle
Niger
1982-1984
62% of national cattle herd
Namibia
1993
22% of cattle, 41% of goats and sheep
Northern Kenya
Botswana
1991
28% of cattle, 18% of sheep and goats
1981-1984
20% of national herd
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
65
1 FOOTBALL PITCH
Source: United Nations Environment Program, 2000; International Soil Reference Centre, 2000; World Atlas of Desertification, 1997
66
US$400 billion
US$44
67
80%
3 United Kingdoms
Potential equivalent area of cropland
lost to urbanisation by 2050
Accounting for the effects of climate change and the need
to increase agricultural output, the system is viewed by
many as the pre-eminent forecasting tool for agricultural
land use trends. Its results will play a major role for policy
planning purposes at the at the next United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change to be held in
Copenhagen in December 2009, where world leaders from
192 countries will meet to discuss and agree upon climate
change mitigation policy. In Europe, IMAGE has already
been used in the Euralis study on future prospects for
agriculture in the rural areas of the EU-25 countries and in
the IPCC Agricultural Assessment (IAASTD).
The IMAGE model includes data dating back hundreds of
years and has been tested retrospectively. . Figure 7.18
shows a map of global land use at the beginning of the
18th century. The red and yellow component indicates
the relatively minor use of the worlds land resources for
agricultural at that time.
Jumping forward to the present, Figure 7.19 shows that
the 21st century planet is a very different place with
68
1700
2000
Forests
Grasslands
Non-productive land
69
Figure 7.20: The greenhouse gas effects of agriculture and deforestation compared to other sectors in 2008
63%
60
40
15%
20
11%
7%
4%
0
Energy
Agriculture
(excluding land
use change)
Deforestation
Developed countries
Industrial
processes
Waste
Developing countries
70
2005
Landuse and agriculture
Agricultural land
Forests
Non-productive land
71
30%
50%
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1960
1970
1980
World biocapacity
1990
2000 2005
72
1980
1990
2000 2005
7
28
3
1,
62
14
0
22
20
0
39
1970
15%
1960
20
Population (millions)
North America
Africa
Europe EU
Asia-Pacific
Europe Non-EU
Middle East
and Central Asia
73
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000 2005
World biocapacity
Grazing land
Built-up land
Cropland
Fishing ground
Carbon footprint
Forest
Source: Global Footprint Network, 2009
2000
China
1500
UAE
710
Saudia Arabia
620
Japan
320
Libya
250
Malaysia
40
India
10
thousand hectares
Each square represents 50 000 hectares.
Values under this value are represented with
one square
74
75
Figure 7.28: Differences in cereal yield growth for different regions of the world between 1960 and 2005
Yields, tons per hectare
5
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
& Caribbean
Middle East
& North Africa
2005
76
1962
1982
2002
South Asia
39
29
33
11
11
10
20
30
40
1980
2000
24
South Asia
77
85
48
59
0
20
40
60
80
Cereal area, %
Fertilizer use
Sub-Saharan Africa
1962
1982
2002
13
South Asia
98
190
73
34
81
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2006; Evenson et al., 2003
72.8 hectares
77
Figure 7.30: Arable and permanent cropland per capita in different regions of the world
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.48
South Asia
0.27
0.23
0.74
Europe &
3.53
Central Asia
Latin America &
Caribbean
1.55
0
78
45,000
Figure 7.31: Changes in farm size and land distribution in a range of developing countries
Country
Period
End
Change in total
number of farms %
Change in total
area %
Farm size
definition useda
197796
1.4
0.6
103
-13
Total
Pakistan
19902000
3.8
3.1
31
Total
Thailand
197893
3.8
3.4
42
27
Total
Ecuador
19742000
15.4
14.7
63
56
Total
199095
1.6
1.4
-5
Total
Egypt
19902000
1.0
0.8
31
Total
Malawi
198193
1.2
0.8
37
-8
Cultivated
Tanzania
197196
1.3
1.0
64
26
Cultivated
Chile
197597
10.7
7.0
-31
Agricultural
Panama
19902001
13.8
11.7
11
-6
Total
198293
3.3
4.8
-1
43
Cultivated
Brazil
198596
64.6
72.8
-16
-6
Total
198396
1.6
2.0
64
105
Cultivated
Algeria
19732001
5.8
8.3
14
63
Agricultural
a. Total land area, agricultural (arable) land area, or cultivated (planted) crop area.
Source: Anriquez et al., 2007; Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2006
79
150,000
A similar pattern is being observed in many other neocolonial projects. In Pakistan, farmers movements are
already raising the alarm about 25,000 villagers that are
bound to be displaced if the Qataris proposal to outsource
part of their food production to the Punjab province is
accepted.267 Another Qatari project in Kenya involves
40,000 hectares of land in the Tana River delta, home
to 150,000 pastoralist families who regard the land as
communal and utilise it to graze some 60,000 cattle.268
Sub-Saharan Africa
Former USSR
Latin America & Caribbean
Europe
North Africa & West Asia
0
2000
2000
2010
2010
2020
2020
2030
80
Sub-Saharan Africa
North America & Oceania
0
2000
2000
2010
2010
2020
2020
2030
Figures 7.32 and 7.33, based on the IMAGE 2.4 model, take
into account climate change constraints to expansion into
forested areas and as a result, predict only modest increases
in cropland area. When considering the need to support a
doubling of global grain demand by 2050, it is clear that
only a small portion of the required production increase
could result from this level of cropland expansion. Despite
the fact that this expansion takes place primarily at the
expense of grassland and grazing lands, the model accepts
81
CHAPTER 8
You are going to have to get used to the fact that you are going to have
to spend a greater proportion of your income on food in the future - after
decades of spending less. The price of most commodities has jumped
significantly this year, as the global economy slowly stutters towards
recovery. Gains in oil and metals prices may not have much further to go but
many believe that the situation with food is different. If you are expecting
the price of your weekly shopping basket to fall soon, it may be best not to
hold your breath.
The Sunday Telegraph Newspaper, 2009
Figure 8.1: The relationship between price (P), production quantity (Q), supply (S) and demand (D)
P
D1
D2
P2
P1
Q1 Q2
It is not only the need for food and the supply available
to meet that need, but just as importantly, the price those
demanding that food are prepared to pay. The preparedness
of consumers to pay for food at a given price is described by
the price elasticity of demand (PED), defined as the measure
of responsiveness in the quantity demanded of a commodity
as a result of change in price of that commodity.275 In other
words, the price elasticity of demand is a measure of the
sensitivity of demand to changes in price.
Inelastic demand means a producer can raise prices without
affecting demand for its product, whereas elastic demand
83
Self-actualization
Esteem
Love/Belonging
Safety
Physiological
morality,
creativity,
spontaneity,
problem solving,
lack of prejudice,
acceptance of facts
self-esteem, confidence,
achievement, respect of others,
respect by others
friendship, family, sexual intimacy
security of body, of employment, of resources, of
morality, of the family, of health, of property
84
It is for this reason that the food sector of the economy has always been seen as
a defensive investment strategy, being more resistant to downturns in consumer
spending during times of recession. Indeed, the recent rises in agricultural
commodity prices are in themselves evidence of the capacity for consumers to
absorb higher prices (even in times of recession). In the words of the OECD-FAO
Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017:
Despite a doubling of some grain prices and broad increases overall, global
food and feed use per capita were sustained, implying that the generally strong
economic performance of the last two years has been manifested in outward shifts
of demand that in combination with relatively inelastic demand in the short-term
has offset the impact of higher prices on quantities demanded. The sensitivity of
demand to price changes appears to be falling for various reasons. Thus, a shock
to supply of a given size will require a greater price change to bring about the
demand adjustment required to balance the market.277
Or as the World Bank puts it in their 2009 Global Economic Prospects Report:
Crude oil price increases reduce the disposable incomes of consumers, which,
in turn, may slow industrial production. In principle, lower disposable income
should have a negative impact on the consumption of food commodities.
However, because the income elasticity for most food commodities is small, this
effect is limited.278
Figure 8.3: Actual and forecasted global GDP growth from 1980
Real GDP, percentage change
Forecast
8
High-income countries
6
0
Developing countries, excluding China and India
Developing countries
-2
16%
Rise in global food
expenditures between
2004 and 2006
50%
Rise in the price of rice in
500%
This rise in agricultural
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
85
ne
ga
ru
Se
Pe
an
ki
st
ny
Pa
In
Ke
ne
sia
a
do
In
ai
H
di
ti
yp
Eg
Ch
in
ile
Ch
a
an
w
ts
Bo
ng
la
de
sh
Ba
Figure 8.5: Relationship between percentage share of food expenditure and per capita income in 2008
Percentage share of food expenditure in CPI
70
NGA LKA
60
TZA GHA
50
KEN
40
SEN PAK
BFA
30
JOR
HKG
JPN
ECU
ESP
UGA IDN
20
ITA
THA
10
KOR
DEU
AUT
GBR CHE
USA
NOR
IRL
0
0
5000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
This relationship has strong implications for agricultural commodity prices when considered in the light of changing dietary habits
in countries like China and India where per capita GDP is rising. In the words of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017:
Economics of demand indicate that consumers tend to care less about prices of goods that represent a small share of their
budget. As incomes expand and the share of budgets spent on a necessity like food fall, consumers are expected to be somewhat
less sensitive to price changes, and a shock to supply of a given size will require a greater price signal to compel consumers to
adjust their purchases. Higher incomes that tend to reduce demand elasticity may lead to greater variability in world prices.
In the United States for example, only 10% of average consumer spending is on food. This means a 100% increase in food prices
would only result in an 11% decrease in the amount of money available to the US consumer for non-food expenditures. A similar
86
situation applies to the majority of OECD countries where food expenditure shares
range between 13% and 20%.282
The price inelasticity of food demand is most clearly demonstrated by recent data
from developing countries where incomes are much lower and the share of food
expenditure is much higher. For instance, it is 28% in China, 33% in India, and
absorbs more than half of total household expenditures in countries such as Kenya
at 51%, Haiti at 52%, Malawi at 58% and Bangladesh at 62%.283
Despite this, consumers in poorer countries continue to absorb steep increases
in food prices, although in many cases unwillingly, as evidenced by the recent
food riots in a number of the aforementioned countries. As Figure 8.6 indicates,
Bangladeshis paid just under 50% more for rice as a result of the 2007-2008
commodity price spikes whilst Thais paid more than double.
150
100
50
-50
World
India
Bangladesh
Philippines
Thailand
Viet nam
Figure 8.7: Change in dietary energy intake by income group between 2007
and 2008
0.0
Bangladesh Guatemala
Malawi
Nepal
Peru
Tajikistan
Viet Nam
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
Change in average calorie intake (%)
Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2008
Richest 20%
Figure 8.8: Global food import expenditures between 1990 and 2008
Index (1990 = 100)
700
600
World
Developed countries
Developing countries
Least-developed countries
Low-income food-deficit counties
500
400
300
200
100
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
88
Oil
15
10
Agriculture
0
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
Figure 8.10: Trends in real and nominal prices for selected agricultural commodities between 1971 and 2007
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
800
500
Wheat
700
Coarse Grains
400
600
500
300
400
200
300
200
100
100
07
20
01
20
95
19
89
19
83
19
07
20
01
20
95
19
89
19
83
19
19
20
19
19
19
19
20
Real prices
77
71
07
200
01
300
95
400
89
600
83
600
77
900
Oilseeds
19
Rice
800
71
77
US$/tonne
1000
1200
19
19
19
07
20
01
20
95
19
89
19
83
19
77
19
71
19
US$/tonne
1500
71
Nominal prices
Source: OECD, 2008; Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2008
89
Vegetable oil
Wheat
Maize
Rice
5
4
3
2
1
0
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Source: OECD, 2008; Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2008;
International Monetary Fund, 2008
90
CHAPTER 9
91
The threat to the worlds energy security, especially on oil and natural gas,
will reach serious dimensions in the next ten years.
International Energy Agency, 2009
40%
25%
92
242%
40,000
30,000
70%
20,000
10,000
Ethanol
Biodiesel
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
15,000
Ethanol
Biodiesel
10,000
5,000
0
USA
Brazil
Other China
countries
India
France
Russia
93
Figure 9.3: Voluntary and mandatory bioenergy targets for transport fuels in G8+5 countries
Country/Country Grouping
Targets1
Brazil
Mandatory blend of 2025 percent anhydrous ethanol with petrol; minimum blending of
3 percent biodiesel to diesel by July 2008 and 5 percent (B5) by end of 2010
Canada
5 percent renewable content in petrol by 2010 and 2 percent renewable content in diesel
fuel by 2012
China
France
5.75 percent by 2008, 7 percent by 2010, 10 percent by 2015 (V), 10 percent by 2020 (M
= EU target)
Germany
India
Proposed blending mandates of 510 percent for ethanol and 20 percent for biodiesel
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Russian Federation
No targets
South Africa
United Kingdom
9 billion gallons by 2008, rising to 36 billion by 2022 (M). Of the 36 billion gallons,
21 billion to be from advanced biofuels (of which 16 billion from cellulosic biofuels)
European Union
M = mandatory; V = voluntary.
Source: GBEP, 2007, updated with information from the United States Department of Agriculture, USDA, 2008a; Renewable Fuels Association, RFA, 2008;
written communication from the EU Commission and Professor Ricardo Abramovay, University of So Paulo, Brazil, 2008
94
Figure 9.4: Total support estimates for biofuels in selected OECD economies in 2006
Ethanol
OECD economy
Biodiesel
TSE
Variable share1
TSE
Variable share1
TSE
Variable share1
(Billion US$)
(Percentage)
(Billion US$)
(Percentage)
(Billion US$)
(Percentage)
United States of
America2
5.8
93
0.53
89
6.33
93
European Union3
1.6
98
3.1
90
4.7
93
Canada4
0.15
70
0.013
55
0.0163
69
Australia5
0.043
60
0.032
75
0.075
66
Switzerland
0.001
94
0.009
94
0.01
94
Total
7.6
93
3.7
90
11.3
92
The percentage of support that varies with increasing production or consumption, and includes market-price support,production payments or tax
credits, fuel-excise tax credits and subsidies to variable inputs.
Provisional estimates.
Source: Steenblik, 2007; Koplow, 2007; Quirke, Steenblik and Warner, 2008.
95
Figure 9.5: Breakeven prices, expressed as the crude oil price, for selected feedstocks based on 2005 production costs
Price of crude oil (US$/barrel)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
As Figure 9.5 shows, the higher the oil price, the more economically viable biofuel production becomes (even without subsidies
or climate change mitigation incentives) and the greater will be the competition for cropland. At oil prices above the $50 mark,
biofuel production becomes capable of producing significant profits thus creating stiff competition and forcing up the price of
maize, wheat and other feedstock crops.
Estimates from OECD-FAO forecasting models project global ethanol production increasing rapidly over the next 10 years and
reaching some 125 billion litres in 2017, twice the quantity produced in 2007. These estimates are based on the assumption that:
long run oil prices are expected to stabilize (in real terms) at around $75.303
This seems conservative for two reasons. Firstly, fuel ethanol production tripled between 2000 and 2007 alone.304 Secondly, the
long run oil price forecast of $75 per barrel is well below the forecasts of many leading industry experts. They forecast much
higher oil prices on the basis that once global demand returns to pre- recession levels, given that significant production expansion
is unlikely in the near future, a return to 2008 prices of well above $100 per barrel is likely.
Even so, the same OECD-FAO report forecasts that food prices will rise by between 20% and 50% by 2016, partly as a result of
biofuels.305 Figure 9.6, showing the correlation between feedstock and oil prices, demonstrates that agricultural commodity prices
rise with the price of oil.
96
Maize ($/ton)
700
350
600
300
500
250
400
200
300
150
200
100
100
50
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Wheat ($/ton)
500
400
300
200
100
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
97
Figure 9.7: Notable recent statements relating to the end of the era of cheap oil
Commentator
Statement
Reference
David OReilly,
Chairman, Chevron
Viktor Khristenko,
Russian Energy Minister
Guy Caruso,
Administrator. U.S.EIA
100
80
Pr
60
with
ble
ofita
40
subs
idie
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
62
3%
98
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1920
1930
1940
1950
Production
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Imports
50%
6.7%
99
The pattern of peak production following peak discovery has been observed in many oil producing regions of the world. Indeed,
peak oil has already been reached and surpassed in the 62 oil producing countries listed in Figure 9.10.
9.10: Oil producing countries at or past peak production as of 2008
1
United States
17
Poland
33
Peru
49
Serbia
United Kingdom
18
Myanmar
34
Morocco
50
Russia
19
Tajikistan
35
France
51
Japan
Libya
20
36
Senegal
52
Pakistan
Kuwait
21
Indonesia
37
Congo (Kinshasa)
53
Turkey
Iran
22
Romania
38
China Taiwan
54
Italy
Egypt
23
Belarus
39
Netherlands
55
Denmark
Ukraine
24
Turkmenistan
40
Benin
56
Mexico
Norway
25
Israel
41
Cameroon
57
South Africa
10
Australia
26
Spain
42
Barbados
58
Cuba
11
Venezuela
27
Tunisia
43
Greece
59
Yemen
12
Germany
28
Albania
44
Argentina
60
Bahrain
13
Bulgaria
29
Georgia
45
Uzbekistan
61
Oman
14
Kyrgyzstan
30
Hungary
46
Gabon
62
Colombia
15
Austria
31
Chile
47
Slovakia
16
Czech Republic
32
Croatia
48
Syria
100
Figure 9.11 shows the discovery and production peaks for a number of these countries. These curves clearly demonstrate that the
peak of production characteristically occurs somewhere between 20 and 40 years after discovery. Figure 9.12 shows the discovery
and production curves for the regions of Asia-Pacific, Europe and the United Sates, all of which have peaked in a similar pattern,
thus demonstrating that peak theory holds not only for countries or sub-regions but also for collections of those countries or subregions.
Figure 9.11: Oil discovery and actual and forecast production curves for various countries
United Kingdom
Norway
3,000
million barrels of oil per year
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
production forecast
1,000
500
0
2,700
2,400
2,100
1,800
1,200
900
600
300
50
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
20
90
20
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
19
Indonesia
2,000
1,500
1,800
1,350
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
production forecast
400
200
1,050
900
750
production forecast
600
450
300
150
Cameroon
50
40
20
20
30
20
20
20
10
00
20
90
20
80
19
19
70
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
19
20
10
19
00
19
50
20
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
00
20
90
20
80
19
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
19
19
40
30
1,200
Austria
100
270
90
300
240
210
180
150
120
90
production forecast
60
30
70
60
50
40
30
production forecast
20
10
50
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
20
90
20
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
50
20
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
00
20
90
20
19
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
19
19
40
30
80
19
19
30
50
20
40
20
30
20
20
10
20
00
20
90
20
80
19
70
19
60
19
19
19
50
Egypt
production forecast
1,500
19
4,000
101
Figure 9.12: Oil discovery and actual and forecast production curves for regions of the world
United States of America
Europe
5,000
8,000
6,000
production forecast
4,000
2,000
0
4,500
4,000
3,500
production forecast
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
50
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
20
90
20
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
20
19
10
19
00
19
50
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
20
90
20
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
20
19
10
19
19
19
00
19
10,000
Asia-Pacific
6,750
6,000
5,250
4,500
3,750
production forecast
3,000
2,250
1,500
750
50
40
20
20
30
20
20
10
20
20
00
20
90
80
19
19
70
19
60
50
19
19
40
30
19
19
20
19
10
19
00
19
7,500
102
Figure 9.13 shows global oil discoveries and production since1910. Global discoveries peaked in 1962 with the trend since then
being generally downwards. Onshore oil is generally exploited first in any region given that it is cheaper to extract (and therefore
more profitable) than offshore oil. This suggests, based on the timescale between peak discovery and peak production, that global
oil production could peak at some point in the near future.
Figure 9.13: Global oil discoveries and onshore and offshore production
80000
75000
70000
65000
45 Years
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2008
103
90
World
58% of World
Total in 2006
60
OECD
30
Non-OECD
05
20
00
20
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
19
65
60
19
Statement
Reference
Royal Swedish
Academy of
Sciences
International Energy
Agency
Raymond James
(Brokerage / Financial)
Schlesinger, J. R.
(Former Secretary of
Energy, Secretary of
Defense, CIA Director,
and
AEC Chairman)
Greene, D.
(Oak Ridge National
Laboratory energy
analyst)
104
An updated supplement to the Hirsch Report published in 2007, entitled Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts,
provides a list of peak forecasts tabulated according to forecast date.310 These are shown in Figure 9.16.
Figure 9.16: Various peak oil forecasts by commentator and source
Commentator
Statement
Reference
http://www.defenseandsociety.org/fcs/crisis_unfolding.
htm .February 11, 2006
Dec-05
Close or past
Very soon
By 2010
Around 2010
2010
A challenge around
2011
Around 2012
Around 2012
Within a decade
Within a decade
2015
Around 2015
2015 - 2020
Around 2020
105
A number of the more credible peak forecasts are plotted on the graph in Figure 9.17 providing a clear impression of a consensus
position in the 2000 to 2020 date range. Aside from these forecasts, more recent historical data suggest that oil production might
have already peaked and may never return to the production level seen in 2008.
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
BP (2006)
Laherrere (All)
ASPO-58 (CO+NGL)
EIA (CO)
Skrebowski (CO+NGL)
EIA (NGPL)
Logistic Low
Koppelaar (All)
Logistic High
Bakhtiari (CO+NGL)
EIA (All)
Loglets (CO+NGL)
GBM (CO+NGL)
CERA (CO)
Deffeyes (CO)
ASPO-71 (CO+NGL)
CERA (All)
2030
2040
106
Abu Dhabi
Dubai
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela
1982
31
57
30
65
165
20
1983
31
55
41
64
162
21
1984
30
51
43
64
166
25
1985
31
48
44
90
169
26
1986
30
48
44
90
169
25
1987
31
49
47
92
167
56
1988
92
93
100
92
167
58
1989
92
93
100
92
170
59
1990
92
93
100
92
257
59
1991
92
93
100
94
257
63
1992
92
93
100
94
258
64
1993
92
93
100
94
258
64
1994
92
89
100
94
259
65
1995
92
88
100
94
259
65
1996
92
93
112
94
259
72
1997
92
93
112
94
259
72
107
50
Forecast
48
46
Non OPEC-12 Peak
2004: 46.8 MBD
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
108
12
10
6.48%
6
1.74%
0
-2
-4
-6
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
109
Period
Per capita income
Population
GDP
World
1.2%
1.5%
2.7%
High income
1.8%
0.7%
2.5%
2.0%
1.6%
3.6%
Low income
2.3%
2.2%
4.5%
Middle income
2.2%
1.2%
3.5%
World
1.8%
1.2%
3.1%
High income
1.7%
0.7%
2.5%
4.2%
1.3%
5.6%
Low income
4.1%
1.9%
6.1%
Middle income
4.6%
0.9%
5.5%
World
1.7%
0.8%
2.5%
High income
1.2%
0.1%
1.3%
3.9%
0.9%
4.9%
Low income
3.8%
1.5%
5.4%
Middle income
4.1%
0.7%
4.8%
World
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.6%
High income
-0.5%
-0.7%
-1.2%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.7%
Low income
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.7%
Middle income
-0.5%
-0.2%
-0.7%
1990s
2000s
2015-30
Figure 9.22: Relationship between per capita income and oil consumption
30000
Ave. yearly income per person ($)
25000
UK
US
20000
15000
10000
China
Russia
5000
Saudi Arabia
India
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
110
100
60
80
50
60
40
30
40
20
20
10
05
03
20
01
20
99
20
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
Figure 9.23: Real spending by major American multinational oil companies since 1980
19
111
18
12
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
United States
Japan
Former U.S.S.R.
China
Russia
India
2000
2005
7.8%
153%
112
Agriculture
13.5%
Industry
19.4%
Forestry
17.4%
$5.8 billion
US subsidies for biofuels in 2006
113
food crisis oil prices hit US$147/barrel and were still above
$70 in July 2009 in the midst of the worst global economic
recession since the Great Depression.339 This apparent
disconnect between the realities of the recent history of oil
prices and the FAO forecasts, provides some insight into
the extent to which world policy makers, even at the very
highest levels of the United Nations, may be completely
unprepared for a future of higher average oil prices.
Despite sticking to their long-term forecast assumptions
of oil price, the UN does acknowledge this. In the words
of a recent FAO report: If peak oil supply is reached
within the period under consideration, this will have major
consequences for the economics of virtually all aspects of
food production.340
As a recent UN report acknowledges: The projected
increases required to sustain demand assume a substantial
increase in the use of fertilizers by small-scale farmers.341
Most of the projected increases in production assume an
increase in the use of fertilizers to exploit the yield gap
in key expansion regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and
South America In a world of more expensive oil, this could
have profound implications as forecast supply increases
could fall short of forecast demand increases.
Dollars/pound of nutrient
0.8
Nitrogen
Phosphate
Potash
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
114
CHAPTER 10
10%
-18.9%
3. U
ncertainties over valuations due to low levels of
visibility with respect to the global economy.
4. C
oncerns over inflation in light of mass quantitative
easing in many global markets.
5. T he disappearance of risk free returns on cash due to
unprecedented low central bank interest rates.
-27%
-30.9%
116
117
118
Figure 10.1: Sharpe Ratios for US assets classes between 1991 and 2007 (geometric mean % total returns)
Asset Class
Sharpe Ratio
Government bonds
7.2
5.9
0.53
S&P 500
11.4
17.0
0.41
Farmland
11.1
7.6
0.93
9.2
7.1
0.72
Standard
Deviation
Asset Allocation
Farmland
S&P 500
Business Real
Estate
Long term
Corp. Bonds
15.56
6.49
100.00
15.50
6.31
98.4
1.6
15.00
5.33
87.9
12.1
14.50
4.72
78.8
12.0
9.2
14.00
4.17
69.3
10.8
19.7
0.2
13.50
3.68
61.7
8.8
26.2
3.3
13.00
3.26
54.1
6.7
32.8
6.4
12.50
2.90
50.5
5.2
36.2
8.1
12.00
2.58
49.2
4.2
37.3
9.3
11.50
2.31
48.1
3.2
38.4
10.3
11.00
2.09
46.0
2.0
40.3
11.7
10.55
2.03
42.8
43.1
14.1
Source: Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 1992
The study concludes as follows: The study used cash rents after property taxes to derive the income part of the returns on
farmland for the period 1967-88 and showed that diversification enhances portfolio performance for institutional investors. The
results were robust across wide variations in variance and annual returns to farmland.
For the period 1967-88, farmland exhibited a higher return than that of stocks and bonds. Further, returns on farmland were
negatively correlated with stocks and bonds and positively correlated with inflation. Thus investment in farmland not only was
a good hedge against inflation but also provided diversification for those who included it in their portfolio. The implication is
that, by including farmland in their portfolio, they may be able to reduce the possibility of shortfalls of their funds in times of
higher inflation.348
119
Another more recent study, based on figures from the NCREIF Farmland Index, reported similar findings.349 As Figure 10.3
indicates farmland performed well during the study period (1991 2004) compared to other assets such as US investment grade
bonds (as represented by the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index), a diversified portfolio of the top 1,000 US large capitalisation
stocks and top 2,000 small capitalisation stocks (as represented by the Russell 3000 Index), as well as mainstream real estate (as
represented by the NCREIF Property Index)..
Figure 10.3: US farmland returns against other asset classes over different time periods ending December 2004
1 Year
3 Yrs
5 Yrs
7 Yrs
10 Yrs
13 3/4 Yrs
NCREIF Farmland
20.50%
12.20%
9.04%
8.48%
8.76%
8.56%
NCREIF Property
14.52%
10.03%
9.91%
11.00%
10.87%
7.59%
Russell 3000
11.95%
4.80%
-1.16%
5.09%
12.01%
11.29%
Lehman Aggregate
4.34%
6.20%
7.71%
6.59%
7.72%
7.54%
Source: NCREIF Farmland and Property Indexes, 2004; Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, 2004; Russell Investment Group, 2004
As Figure 10.4 shows, farmland also showed low or negative correlation with traditional asset classes and real estate, whilst
showing a positive correlation with inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Figure 10.4: Correlation of US farmland to other asset classes and inflation over different time periods ending December 2004
RETURN
STD DEV
CORRELATIONS
CPI
Bonds
Stocks
RE
CPI
4.8%
3.2%
1.00
Bonds
8.9%
7.2%
-0.34
1.00
Stocks
12.7%
17.2%
-0.23
0.33
1.00
Real Estate
9.4%
5.6%
0.38
-0.20
0.06
1.00
Farmland
10.3%
7.8%
0.54
-0.52
-0.13
0.11
Farmland
1.00
Source: UBS AgriVest, 2004; U.S. LT Government Bond Index, 1970-1977; Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, 1978-2004; S&P 500 Stock Index, 2004;
Evaluation Associates, 1970-1977; NCREIF Property Index, 1978-2004; Core Farmland Index, 1991-2004; Ibbotson Associates, 1970-1990
A further study conducted in Saskatchewan, a prairie province which produces just under half of Canadas grain, compared
farmland with a number of other asset classes found in a typical globally diversified investment portfolio held by a Canadian
mutual fund investor. The study concluded that: the addition of farmland ownership would have enhanced financial
performance across the portfolio for average or medium levels of risk. The financial gains from farmland are a result of its
negatively correlated returns with equity markets. When added to an equity portfolio, the risk level is reduced while maintaining
the same rate of return on investment.350
The study compared Saskatchewan farmland with Canadian T-Bills and long-term bonds, forming the lower risk end of the
portfolio, and various equity markets (Canada, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy) at the higher
risk end of the portfolio. As can be seen from Figure 10.5, Saskatchewan farmland out-performed the local equity market whilst
exhibiting a lower level of risk (measured in terms of volatility).
120
Figure 10.5: Comparison of average risk and return for Saskatchewan farmland and other asset classes
between 1970 and 1998
14%
USA Equities
UK Equities
12%
France Equities
Farmland
10%
Return o1n Investment
Japan Equities
Germany Equities
Canada Equities
Long Bonds
8%
Italy Equities
T-Bills
6%
4%
2%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Credit crunch
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
1973
oil crisis
500
05
20
00
20
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
19
75
70
5,000
19
per acre ()
121
122
123
CHAPTER 11
The trick here is not just to harvest crops but to harvest money.
Mikhail Orlov, founder of Black Earth Farming and former private equity manager with Carlyle and Invesco, 2008
10yrs
Farming Top 25%
Commercial - All
20yrs
30yrs
Forestry
Gilts
Equities
125
126
127
Figure 11.2: Asset allocations for FTSE APCIMS private investor indices (effective as of January 19th 2009)
FTSE APCIMS
Portfolio Index
Portfolio Objectives
UK
Equities
Foreign
Equities
Bonds
Cash
Commercial
Property
Hedge
Funds
47.5%
30.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
7.5%
45.0%
10.0%
37.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%
42.5%
22.5%
20.0%
5.0%
2.5%
7.5%
128
Over the past few years hedge fund gurus like George
Soros, investment powerhouses like BlackRock, and
retirement plan giants like TIAA-CREF have begun to plough
money into farmland. As of the first quarter of 2009, more
than $2 billion of private equity money had been raised for
farmland investments globally, and another $500 million
was planned. Even after the correction, grain prices remain
above their 20-year average, and food stocks around the
world are still near 40-year lows. For many investors, last
years shortages are a preview of what could lie ahead.368
Even so the sector remains under bought. Increased interest
from institutional investors should create a new layer of
demand to support farmland values in the future. Indeed,
interest in the sector has received impetus from current
market conditions. In the words of Paul Spencer, agriculture
manager at Lloyds TSB:
Other factors influencing the agricultural land market
have included institutional investors, such as pension
funds and investment portfolio managers. Having seen
returns from their more traditional investments reduce,
managers will always be looking for more attractive returns.
Farmland, in comparison to some of the higher-risk
ventures, can provide a more stable and attractive longerterm return. Land will continue to be an asset capable of
delivering a strong return on investment and the long-term
fundamentals for the sector remain favourable.369
129
$2 billion
EXTERNAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MANAGEMENT
P hysical roads, power, communications, water,
housing, sewage
ENVIRONMENT
B
iological environment sensitivities,
government legislation
Surrounding farms and plantations competition /
opportunities for cooperation
AGRICULTURE
C
limate annual patterns for local rainfall, max and
min temperatures, humidity, wind speed, sunshine
hours, soil temperatures; occurrence of extreme events
e.g. hail, hurricane (information should be based on at
least 10 year records from met stations at specified site
or within reasonable proximity to it)
Topography contour maps and description
C
ompany structure and corporate due diligence relating
to proposed corporate farming tenant, including
financial and performance history with respect to
past success rates to assess capability to maintain
uninterrupted payment of rents for the period of
the tenancy
Identifying an investment manager with good local
connections in the rural community is also crucial to
ensuring that farmland is acquired at the right price. In the
words of a US agricultural fund manager:
Its really hard to buy property at the right price. Half of
all farmland that trades in the United States never sees
a broker. We believe youve got to have a lot of local
knowledge of the marketplace. Farmers are smart and they
talk. And if one Town Car full of Wall Street types rolls into
town and makes a bid, suddenly all of the prices go up.370
130
131
132
26%
Utilities
0
10
15
20
25
133
CHAPTER 12
Conclusion
1,000s Hectares
2006
2007
1,000s Hectares
1,411,500
2005
1,412,000
1,411,000
1,412,500
4,945,000
4,940,000
4,935,000
4,930,000
2005
2006
2007
4,800,000
4,700,000
4,600,000
4,500,000
4,400,000
polynomial trendline
4,300,000
4,200,000
4,100,000
1961
1970
1980
1990
2000
2007
135
136
Figure 12.4: The tug of war between supply and demand between now and 2050
210%
DEMAND
TENSION
+100
+80
+60
+40
+20
0%
Population
Per-capita
income
Oil
Depletion
Other
non-food
crops
Land
degradation
Grain
Demand
COMMODITY
PRICES
Urban
build-up
Meat
Demand
Biofuels
Demand
Climate
change
Land
degradation
Invasive
species
0%
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
SUPPLY
TENSION
Source: All figures on the supply side (except climate change) were compiled by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in 2009(381). As the UNEP did not include
the effects of extreme weather(382) nor the cumulative loss of ecosystems services endangering the entire functioning of food production systems in the climate change
component of their figures, the World Bank (2009) figure of a decline in agricultural productivity of between 1 and 10 percent by 2030(383) has been used. The World Bank
purports to take the effects of extreme weather into account in this figure. The demand side, the population forecast comes from the United Nations Population Division (2007)
(384); the per-capita income forecast comes from the World Bank World Bank LINKAGES model (2009) estimate for 2015 to 2030 of 1.7% per annum compounded forward
to 2050(385); the grain demand forecast from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (2009)(386); the meat demand forecast comes from the Food and
Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (2006)(387). No oil depletion or biofuels demand figures are provided as these are dependent upon the timing of peak oil which
remains uncertain.
137
138
Figure 12.5: Trends in per capita availability of arable land between 1700 and 2050
0.6
Higher Estimate
Lower Estimate
0.5
2007
0.4
2050
forecast period
0.3
0.2
0.1
50
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
20
90
20
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
20
19
10
19
00
19
90
19
80
18
70
18
60
18
50
18
40
18
30
18
20
18
10
18
00
18
90
18
80
17
70
17
60
17
50
17
40
17
30
17
20
17
10
17
17
17
00
Source: Arable land figures between 1961 and 2007 - Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2009; Arable land figures between 1700
and 1960 - Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2006; Population figures
United Nations Population Division, 1999 & 2008
139
140
166.25
132.50
20 year average
98.75
9
Ju
l2
00
07
20
A
ug
05
20
A
ug
03
20
A
ug
01
20
A
ug
A
ug
19
99
97
19
A
ug
95
19
A
ug
93
19
A
ug
91
19
A
ug
A
ug
19
89
65.00
141
FUTURE
2009
2000
1950
FALLING PRICES
2050
9.2 billion
RISING PRICES ?
Figure 12.7: Trends in world population and sources of agricultural production between 1700 and 2050
RISING PRICES
PAST
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
Deficit
Green Revolution
Population
Cropland
Source: Arable land figures between 1961 and 2007 - Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2009; Arable land figures
between 1700 and 1960 - Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,
2006; Population figures United Nations Population Division, 1999 & 2008 (Note: The total area of arable land under cultivation globally is
assumed to remain at 2007 levels.)
142
143
Bibliography
FAOSTAT (2009). FAOSTAT. Available online at: http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx [Accessed on the 11 July 2009].
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDFw47.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
2
UN Population Division (2007). UN 2006 population revision. UN, New York. Available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ [Accessed on 20 January 2009].
FAO Statistical Yearbook 2004, Issue 2 - Country Profiles. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. Available online at http://www.fao.org/es/ess/
yearbook/vol_1_2/site_en.asp?page=cp [Accessed on 08 April 2009]
4
UN Population Division (2007). UN 2006 population revision. UN, New York. Available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ [Accessed on 20 January 2009].
Wikepedia (2009). List of cities proper. Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_population [Accessed on 08 April 2009]
FAOSTAT (2009). FAOSTAT. Available online at: http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx [Accessed on the 11 July 2009].
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
8
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
9
10
UN Population Division (2007). UN 2006 population revision. UN, New York. Available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ [Accessed on 20 January 2009].
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
11
12
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
13
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDFw47.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
14
15
OECD-FAO (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017. OECD, Paris. http://www.agri-outlook.org/dataoecd/54/15/40715381.pdf [Accessed on 21 May 2009].
16
Alice Schroeder (2008). The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life. Bantam Books.
17
Investopedia (2009). Warren Buffett: How he does it. Available online at: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/071801.asp [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
18
Financial Times (30 May 2009). Landowners cast net wider to make a living. Financial Times Newspaper.
19
Ricardo, David. On the Principles of Political Economy, and Taxation. 1st edition, 1817. Harmondsworth: Penguin reprint [R. M. Hartwell, editor], 1971.
VOA (2008). Agricultural Land and Property Market Report 2008. Valuation Office Agency of Her Majestys Revenue and Customs. Available online at: http://www.
voa.gov.uk/publications/property_market_report/pmr-Jul-08/agricultural.htm [Accessed on 1 February 2009]
20
VOA (2008). Residential Building Land Market Report 2008. Valuation Office Agency of Her Majestys Revenue and Customs. Available online at: http://www.voa.
gov.uk/publications/property_market_report/pmr-Jul-08/residential.htm [Accessed on 1 February 2009]
21
22
Tilman, D. et al. Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change. Science 292, 281284 (2001).
23
Cohen, J. E. How Many People Can the Earth Support? (Norton, New York, 1995)
Office for National Statistics (2007). T 08: Selected age groups for local authorities in the United Kingdom; estimated resident population; Mid-2006 Population
Estimates. Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=9664&More=Y. [Accessed on 14 November 2007]
24
25
Diamond, J. Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (Norton, New York 1997)
FAO (2003). World agriculture: towards 2015/2030. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/004/y3557e/y3557e.pdf [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
26
27
Tilman et al. (2002). Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Science 418 (6898): 671-677.
28
UN Population Division (2007). UN 2006 population revision. UN, New York. Available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ [Accessed on 20 January 2009].
29
Tilman et al. (2002). Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Science 418 (6898): 671-677.30 FAO (2003). World agriculture: towards 2015/20
30
FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/004/y3557e/y3557e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
31
Tilman et al. (2002). Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Science 418 (6898): 671-677.
United Nations (2004). World Population to 2300. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York. Available online at: http://www.
un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf [Accessed on the 21 May 2009].
32
FAO (2008): The state of food and agriculture 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0100e/i0100e00.htm [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
33
34
OECD-FAO (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017. OECD, Paris. http://www.agri-outlook.org/dataoecd/54/15/40715381.pdf [Accessed on 21 May 2009].
FAO (2008): The state of food and agriculture 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0100e/i0100e00.htm [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
35
36
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
145
Johnson, D.G. (2000). Population, Food and Knowledge. American Economic Review 90(March):1-14.
Simpson, D.R., Toman, M.A., Ayres R.U. (2005). Scarcity and Growth Revisited: Natural Resources and Environment in the New Millennium. Resources for the Future
(1) 3-5.
38
39
Malthus T.R. 1798. An essay on the principle of population. Chapter 1, p13 in Oxford Worlds Classics reprint.
40
Copley, Stephen (March 1995). Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations: New Interdisciplinary Essays. Manchester University Press
41
UN Population Division (2007). UN 2006 population revision. UN, New York. Available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ [Accessed on 20 January 2009].
42
Klein, Goldewijk K. (2001). Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: the HYDE database. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 (2): 417- 433.
43
Ibid.
44
Hyne, N.J (1991). Dictionary of Petroleum Exploration, Drilling and Production, p. 585
45
Tilman et al. (2002). Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Science 418 (6898): 671-677.
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
46
47
Ibid.
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDFw47.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
48
49
Ibid.
50
FAOSTAT (2009). FAOSTAT. Available online at: http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
51
Tilman et al. (2002). Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Science 418 (6898): 671-677.
FAO (2008): The state of food and agriculture 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0100e/i0100e00.htm [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
52
53
Tilman et al. (2002). Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Science 418 (6898): 671-677.
Cassman, K. G. Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 96, 59525959
(1999).
54
55
Young, A. Is there really spare land? A critique of estimates of available cultivable land in developing countries. Environ. Dev. Sustainability 1, 318 (1999).
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
56
Alcamo et al. (2003). Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future business-as-usual conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal
48 (3): 339-348.
57
58
Ibid.
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
59
60
Faurs et al. (2000). The FAO irrigated area forecast for 2030. FAO, Rome.
FAO (2003). World agriculture: towards 2015/2030. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/004/y3557e/y3557e.pdf [Accessed on the 20
January 2009]
61
62
FAO (2006). World Agriculture, towards 2030/2050. FAO, Rome. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/es/ESD/AT2050web.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009]
63
Money Week (29 May 2009). Can farms bear fruits for investors? Issue 437.
64
Ibid.
The Times (21 March 2009). More food and make it quick; science as the worlds population soars, GM crops may be the least-bad option, says Mark Henderson.
Saturday Review, The Times.
65
66
UN Population Division (2007). UN 2006 population revision. UN, New York. Available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ [Accessed on 20 January 2009].
67
Ibid.
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
68
Cassman, K. G. Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 96, 59525959
(1999).
69
70
Cohen, J. E. & Federoff, N. V. Colloquium on Plants and Population: Is There Time? (National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC, 1999).
71
Alexandratos, N. World food and agriculture: outlook for the medium and longer term. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 96, 59085914 (1999).
72
MNP (2006) (Edited by A.F. Bouwman, T. Kram and K. Klein Goldewijk), Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4.
146
74
Ibid.
75
Ibid.
MNP (2006) (Edited by A.F. Bouwman, T. Kram and K. Klein Goldewijk), Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4.
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
76
77
Alexandratos, N. World food and agriculture: outlook for the medium and longer term. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 96, 59085914 (1999).
78
Ruttan, V. W. The transition to agricultural sustainability. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 96, 59605967 (1999).
79
Ruttan, V. R. Productivity growth in world agriculture: sources and constraints. J. Econ. Perspect. (in the press).
80
Postel, S. Pillar of Sand: Can the Irrigation Miracle Last? (Norton, New York, 1999).
81
Vitousek, P. M., Mooney, H. A., Lubchenco, J. & Melillo, J. M. Human domination of earths ecosystems. Science 277, 494499 (1997).
82
Carpenter, S. R. et al.Nonpoint pollution of surface waters with phosphorus and nitrogen. Ecol. Applic. 8, 559568 (1998).
FAO (2008): The state of food insecurity in the world 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0291e/i0291e00.pdf [Accessed on 03
June 2009].
83
84
UN Population Division (2007). UN 2006 population revision. UN, New York. Available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ [Accessed on 20 January 2009].
85
Wikipedia (2009). London. Available online at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London [Accessed on 6 August 2009]
86
Wikipedia (2009). Singapore. Available online at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore [Accessed on 6 August 2009]
87
Wikipedia (2009). Dubai. Available online at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai [Accessed on 6 August 2009]
World Bank (2008). Rising Food and Fuel Prices: Addressing the Risks to Future Generations. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.
worldbank.org/DEVCOMMEXT/Resources/Food-Fuel.pdf?resourceurlname=Food-Fuel.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
88
United States Central Intelligence Agency (2009). The CIA World Factbook. Available online at: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
[Accessed on the 03 June 2009].
89
FAO (2008): The state of food and agriculture 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0100e/i0100e00.htm [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
90
Fortune Magazine (16 June 2009). As world population expands, the demand for arable land should soar. At least thats what George Soros, Lord Rothschild, and
other investors believe. Available online at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/08/retirement/betting_the_farm.fortune/index.htm?section=money_latest [Accessed on 6
August 2009]
91
United States Central Intelligence Agency (2009). The CIA World Factbook. Available online at: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
[Accessed on the 03 June 2009].
92
The Economist (26 April 2009). Bamboo shoots of recovery, signs that a giant fiscal stimulus is starting to work in China. Available online at: http://www.economist.
com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13496444&fsrc=nwl [Accessed on the 03 June 2009].
93
94
Ibid.
95
Ibid.
96
International Herald Tribune (25 June 2009). Decoupling rises again in OECD projections. The Global Edition of the New York Times.
The Economist (26 April 2009). Bamboo shoots of recovery, signs that a giant fiscal stimulus is starting to work in China. Available online at: http://www.economist.
com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13496444&fsrc=nwl [Accessed on the 03 June 2009].
97
Fortune Magazine (16 June 2009). As world population expands, the demand for arable land should soar. At least thats what George Soros, Lord Rothschild, and
other investors believe. Available online at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/08/retirement/betting_the_farm.fortune/index.htm?section=money_latest [Accessed on 6
August 2009]
98
FAO Statistical Yearbook 2004, Issue 2 - Country Profiles. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. Available online at http://www.fao.org/es/ess/
yearbook/vol_1_2/site_en.asp?page=cp [Accessed on 08 April 2009]
99
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
100
101
Ibid.
102
Ibid.
Fortune Magazine (16 June 2009). As world population expands, the demand for arable land should soar. At least thats what George Soros, Lord Rothschild, and
other investors believe. Available online at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/08/retirement/betting_the_farm.fortune/index.htm?section=money_latest [Accessed on 6
August 2009]
103
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
104
147
Chapagain, A.K. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2008). The global component of freshwater demand and supply: an assessment of virtual water flows between nations as a
result of trade in agricultural and industrial products. Water International 33 (1): 19-32.
105
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
106
107
Ibid.
108
Devine. R. 2003. La consommation des produits carns. INRA Prod. Anim., 16(5): 325327
FAO (2003). World agriculture: towards 2015/2030. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/004/y3557e/y3557e.pdf [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
109
110
FAOSTAT (2009). FAOSTAT. Available online at: http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
FAO (2008): The state of food insecurity in the world 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0291e/i0291e00.pdf [Accessed on the
03 June 2009].
111
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
112
113
Ibid.
Schmidhuber, J. & Shetty, P. 2005. The nutrition transition to 2030. Why developing countries are likely to bear the major burden. Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica,
Section C Economy, 2(34): 150166.
114
Rae, A. 1998. The effects of expenditure growth and urbanisation on food consumption in East Asia: a note on animal products, Agricultural Economics, 18(3):
291299.
115
116
King, B.S., Tietyen, J.L. & Vickner, S.S. 2000. Consumer trends and opportunities. Lexington, USA, University of Kentucky.
Popkins, B., Horton, S. & Kim, S. 2001. The nutrition transition and prevention of diet-related chronic diseases in Asia and the Pacific. Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 22
(4: Suppl.). Tokyo, United Nations University Press.
117
118
WHO. 2003. Obesity and overweight. Fact sheet, Geneva, World Health Organization
Popkins, B., Horton, S. & Kim, S. 2001. The nutrition transition and prevention of diet-related chronic diseases in Asia and the Pacific. Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 22
(4: Suppl.). Tokyo, United Nations University Press.
119
Pingali, P. (2004). Westernization of Asian Diets and the transformation of food systems: Implications for research and policy. ESA Working Paper No. 04-17. FAO,
Rome.
120
121
Keyzer et al. (2005). Diet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030? Ecological Economics 55 (2): 187-202.
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
122
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
123
124
OECD-FAO (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017. OECD, Paris. http://www.agri-outlook.org/dataoecd/54/15/40715381.pdf [Accessed on 21 May 2009].
Delgado, C., Rosegrant, M., Steinfeld, H., Ehui, S. & Courbois, C. 1999. Livestock to 2020: The next food revolution. Food, Agriculture, and the Environment
Discussion Paper 28. Washington, DC, IFPRI/FAO/ILRI (International Food Policy Research Institute/FAO/International Livestock Research Institute).
125
Schmidhuber, J. & Shetty, P. 2005. The nutrition transition to 2030. Why developing countries are likely to bear the major burden. Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica,
Section C Economy, 2(34): 150166.
126
Rae, A. 1998. The effects of expenditure growth and urbanisation on food consumption in East Asia: a note on animal products, Agricultural Economics, 18(3):
291299.
127
128
King, B.S., Tietyen, J.L. & Vickner, S.S. 2000. Consumer trends and opportunities. Lexington, USA, University of Kentucky.
129
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
130
131
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
132
Rae, A. 1998. The effects of expenditure growth and urbanisation on food consumption in East Asia: a note on animal products, Agricultural Economics, 18(3):
291299.
133
Zhou, Z.Y., Wu, Y.R. & Tian, W.M. 2003. Food consumption in rural China: preliminary results from household survey data. Proceedings of the 15th Annual
Conference of the Association from Chinese Economics Studies, Australia.
134
Henningsson et al. (2004). The value of resource efficiency in the food industry: a waste minimization project in East Anglia, UK. Journal of Cleaner Production 12
(5): 505-512.
135
136
Smil, V. (2000). Feeding the World: A Challenge for the Twenty-First Century. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA.
148
Lundqvist et al. (2008). Saving Water: From Field to Fork Curbing Losses and Wastage in the Food Chain. SIWI Policy Brief. SIWI. Available online at: http://www.
siwi.org/documents/Resources/Policy_Briefs/PB_From_Filed_to_fork_2008.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
137
138
Ibid.
WRAP (2008). Food waste report 2: The food we waste. WRAP, U.K. Available online at: http://www.wrap.org.uk/downloads/The_Food_We_Waste_v2__2_.
d3471041.5635.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
139
Knight, A. and Davis, C. (2007). What a waste! Surplus fresh foods research project, S.C.R.A.T.C.H. Available online at: http://www.veoliatrust.org/docs/Surplus_
Food_Research.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
140
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
141
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK.
142
WRAP (2008). Food waste report 2: The food we waste. WRAP, U.K. Available online at: http://www.wrap.org.uk/downloads/The_Food_We_Waste_v2__2_.
d3471041.5635.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
143
144
OECD-FAO (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017. OECD, Paris. http://www.agri-outlook.org/dataoecd/54/15/40715381.pdf [Accessed on 21 May 2009].
World Bank (2008). Rising Food and Fuel Prices: Addressing the Risks to Future Generations. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.
worldbank.org/DEVCOMMEXT/Resources/Food-Fuel.pdf?resourceurlname=Food-Fuel.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
145
FAO (2008): The state of food insecurity in the world 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0291e/i0291e00.pdf [Accessed on the
03 June 2009].
146
147
Sanchez, Pedro A. (2002). Soil Fertility and Hunger in Africa. Science 205 (5562): 2019-2020.
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDFw47.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
148
149
Ibid.
Le Monde diplomatique (2006). Planet in Peril: Atlas of Current Threats to People and the Environment. Available online at http://mondediplo.com/maps/peril
[Accessed on 20 April 2009]
150
Schmidhuber, J. and Tubiello, F.N. (2007). Global food security under climate change. Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences of the United States of
America (PNAS) 104 (50): 1970319708.
151
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK.
152
153
Stern Review (2006). The Economics of Climate Change, Part II: The Impacts of Climate Change on Growth and Development, pp. 67 73. Stern Review, UK.
154
Lobell et al. (2008). Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319 (5863): 607-610.
Cline, William R. (2007). Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International
Economics. Washington, D.C.
155
156
Long et al. (2006). Food for thought: Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science 312 (5782): 1918-1921.
Tubiello, F.N. and Fischer, G. (2006). Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects of mitigation, 20002080. Technological
Forecasting and Social Change 74 (7): 1030-1056
157
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK.
158
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDFw47.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
159
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
160
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDFw47.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
161
Cline, William R. (2007). Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International
Economics. Washington, D.C.
162
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
163
Hanasaki et al. (2008a). An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing. Hydrology
and Earth System Sciences 12 (4): 1007-1025.
164
Hanasaki et al. (2008b). An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 2: Applications and assessments. Hydrology and Earth System
Sciences 12 (4): 1027-1037.
165
149
166
167
De Fraiture et al. (2003). Addressing the unanswered questions in global water policy: A methodology framework. Irrigation and Drainage 52 (1): 21-30.
168
Shen et al. (2008). Projection of future world water withdrawals under SRES scenarios: Water withdrawal. Hydrological sciences journal 53 (1):11-33.
WHO (2007). The World Health Report. A Safer Future. Global Public Health Security in the 21st Century. WHO, Geneva, Switzerland. Available at: http://www.who.
int/whr/2007/whr07_en.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
169
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
170
UNEP (2005). Fall of the Water. UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Arendal, Norway. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/_documents/himalreport_scr.pdf [Accessed on the 20
January 2009]
171
172
Rosegrant, M.W. and Cai, X.M. (2002). Global water demand and supply projections part - 2. Results and prospects to 2025. Water International 27 (2): 170-182.
173
Yang et al. (2003). A water resources threshold and its implications for food security. Environmental science and technology 37 (14): 3048-3054.
174
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
175
UNEP (2007). Global Outlook for Snow and Ice. UNEP, Nairobi. Available online at: http://www.unep.org/geo/geo_ice/PDF/full_report_LowRes.pdf [Accessed on the
20 January 2009]
176
UNEP (2005). Fall of the Water. UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Arendal, Norway. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/_documents/himalreport_scr.pdf [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
177
UNEP (2008). In Dead Water. Merging of Climate Change With Pollution, Over-Harvest, and Infestations in the Worlds Fishing Grounds. UNEP/GRID-Arendal,
Arendal, Norway. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/InDeadWater_LR.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
178
UNEP (2005). Fall of the Water. UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Arendal, Norway. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/_documents/himalreport_scr.pdf [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
179
UNEP (2008). In Dead Water. Merging of Climate Change With Pollution, Over-Harvest, and Infestations in the Worlds Fishing Grounds. UNEP/GRID-Arendal,
Arendal, Norway. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/InDeadWater_LR.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
180
181
Rost et al. (2008). Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resources Research 44 (9).
182
Ibid.
183
Bhner, J. and Lehmkuhl, F. (2005). Environmental change modelling for Central and High Asia: Pleistocene, present and future scenarios. Boreas 32 (2): 220-231.
UNEP (2007). Global Outlook for Snow and Ice. UNEP, Nairobi. Available online at: http://www.unep.org/geo/geo_ice/PDF/full_report_LowRes.pdf [Accessed on the
20 January 2009].
184
Jianchu, X., A. Shrestha, et al. (2007). The Melting Himalayas: Regional challenges and local impacts of climate change on mountain ecosystems and livelihoods.
ICIMOD Technical Paper. Katmandu, Nepal, ICIMOD.
185
186
Liu, X.D. and Chen, B.D. (2000). Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. International Journal of Climatology 20 (14): 1729-1742.
Eriksson et al. (2008). How does climate affect human health in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region? Regional Health Forum 12: 11-15. Available online at: http://
www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/Regional_Health_Forum_Volume_12_No_1_How_does_climate.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
187
UNEP (2007). Global Outlook for Snow and Ice. UNEP, Nairobi. Available online at: http://www.unep.org/geo/geo_ice/PDF/full_report_LowRes.pdf [Accessed on the
20 January 2009].
188
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK.
189
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
190
191
USBC (2001). Statistical abstract of the United States. US bureau of the Census, US Government printing office, Washington D.C.
192
Pimentel et al. (2001). Economic and environmental threats of alien plant, animal and microbe invasions. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 84 (1): 1-20.
193
Rossman, A. (2009). The impact of invasive fungi on agricultural ecosystems in the United States. Biological Invasions 11 (1): 97-107.
Pimentel et al. (2005). Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States. Ecological Economics 52 (3):
273-288.
194
195
Rossman, A. (2009). The impact of invasive fungi on agricultural ecosystems in the United States. Biological Invasions 11 (1): 97-107.
196
OTA (1993). Harmful non-indigenous species in the United States. Office of Technology Assessment, United States Congress, Washington D.C.
197
Alig et al. (2004). Projecting large-scale area changes in land use and land cover for terrestrial carbon analyses. Environmental Management 33 (4): 443-456.
Anderson et al. (2004). Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agro-technological drivers. Trends in Ecology and Evolution
19 (10): 535-544.
198
150
199
Gan, J. (2004). Risk and damage of southern pine beetle outbreaks under global climate change. Forest Ecology and Management 191 (1-3): 61-71.
FAO (2008): The state of food and agriculture 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0100e/i0100e00.htm [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
200
201
Pyke et al. (2008). Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species. Conservation Biology 22 (3):585-592.
202
Mooney, H.A. and Hobbs, R.J. (ed.) (2000). Invasive Species in a Changing World. Island Press. Washington, D.C.
CBD (2001). Status, impacts and trends of alien species that threaten ecosystems, habitats and species. CBD, Montreal. Available online at:http://www.cbd.int/doc/
meetings/sbstta/sbstta-06/information/sbstta-06-inf-11-en.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
203
204
Kenis et al. (2009). Ecological effects of invasive alien insects. Biological Invasions 11 (1): 21-45.
205
Sala et al. (2000). Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287 (5459): 1770-1774.
Gaston et al. (2003). Rates of species introduction to a remote oceanic island. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 270 (1519):
1091-1098.
206
207
MA (2005). Ecosystems & Human Well-being: Wetlands & Water. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.
208
Pinstrup-Andersen, P. and Pandya-Lorch, R. (1998). Food security and sustainable use of natural resources: A 2020 Vision. Ecological Economics 26 (1): 1-10.
209
Bai et al. (2007): Land cover change and soil fertility decline in tropical regions. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry 32 (3): 195-213.
210
Investment and Pensions Europe (November 2007). The answer lies in the soil. Spotlight on: Alternatives.
211
Wikepedia (2009). List of cities proper. Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_population [Accessed on 08 April 2009]
212
Wikepedia (2009). Association football. Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football [Accessed on 08 April 2009]
213
den Biggelaar et al. (2004). The global impact of soil erosion on productivity. Advances in Agronomy 81: 1-95.
214
Henao, J. and Baanante, C. (2006). Agricultural Production and Soil Nutrient Mining in Africa. Summary of IFDC Technical Bulletin. IFDC, Alabama, USA.
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
215
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
216
217
Ibid.
218
Stoorvogel et al. (1993a). Calculating Soil Nutrient Balances in Africa at Different Scales 1. Supra-national Scale. Fertilizer Research 35 (3): 227-235.
Stocking, M. (1986). The cost of soil erosion in Zimbabwe in terms of the loss of three major nutrients. Consultants Working Paper No. 3., Soil Conservation
Programme. Rome, FAO Land and Water Division.
219
220
UNEP (1994). Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes and Effects upon the People. INDP/UNEP/FAO. World Soil Resources Report 78.
221
Lal, R. (1998). Soil erosion impact on agronomic productivity and environment quality. Critical reviews in plant sciences 17: 319-464
222
den Biggelaar et al. (2004). The global impact of soil erosion on productivity. Advances in Agronomy 81: 1-95.
223
Henao, J. and Baanante, C. (2006). Agricultural Production and Soil Nutrient Mining in Africa. Summary of IFDC Technical Bulletin. IFDC, Alabama, USA.
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
224
225
Investment and Pensions Europe (November 2007). The answer lies in the soil. Spotlight on: Alternatives.
Maizel et al. (1998). Historical interrelationships between population settlement and farmland in the conterminous United States, 1790 to 1990. In: T.D. Sisk (ed.)
Perspectives on the land use history of North America: a context for understanding our changing environment, U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division,
Biological Science Report, USGS/BRD/BSR 1998-0003.
226
227
Klein, Goldewijk K. (2001). Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: the HYDE database. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 (2): 417- 433.
Klein, Goldewijk K. (2005). Three centuries of global population growth: A spatial referenced population density database for 1700 2000. Population and
Environment, 26 (4): 343-367.
228
229
Klein, Goldewijk K. and Beusen, A. (2009). Long-term dynamic modelling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way. In preparation.
230
Potere, D. and Schneider, A. (2007). A critical look at representations of urban areas in global maps. Geojournal 69 (1-2): 55-80.
231
Klein, Goldewijk K. and Beusen, A. (2009). Long-term dynamic modelling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way. In preparation.
232
UN (2008). United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
233
Stehfest et al. (2008). Climate benefits of changing diet, Climatic Change, in press.
234
Wikipedia (2009). United Kingdom. Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_kingdom [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
235
236
ICIMOD (2008). Food Security in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region. ICIMOD, Chengdu.
151
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
237
238
Ibid.
239
Waggoner, P. E. How much land can ten billion people spare for nature? Does technology make a difference? Technol. Soc. 17, 1734 (1995).
240
Manning, R. Foods Frontier: The Next Green Revolution (North Point, New York, 2000).
241
Plucknett, D. L. International agricultural-research for the next century. Bioscience 43, 432440 (1993).
242
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Tilman et al. (2002). Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Science 418 (6898): 671-677.
244
EBBC (2008). European Breeding Bird Census Report. Available online at: http://www.ebcc.info/index.php?ID=367&indik%5BE_C_Fa%5D=1 [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
245
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
246
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington. D.C.
247
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Bruijnzeel, L.A. (2004). Hydrological functions of tropical forests: not seeing the soil for the trees? Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 104 (1): 185-228.
249
UNEP (2005). Fall of the Water. UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Arendal, Norway. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/_documents/himalreport_scr.pdf [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
250
Fischlin et al. (2007): Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E.
Hanson, (ed.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
251
Nepstad et al. (2007). Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an amazon forest. Ecology 88 (9): 2259-2269.
252
Cline, William R. (2007). Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International
MNP (2006) (Edited by A.F. Bouwman, T. Kram and K. Klein Goldewijk), Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4.
Ibid.
255
Commission of the European Communities (2009). Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen: Communication from the Commission
to the European Parliament, the Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. Available online at http://ec.europa.eu/
environment/climat/pdf/future_action/communication.pdf [Accessed on 1 May 2009]
256
MNP (2006) (Edited by A.F. Bouwman, T. Kram and K. Klein Goldewijk), Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4.
Commission of the European Communities (2009). Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen: Communication from the Commission
to the European Parliament, the Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. Available online at http://ec.europa.eu/
environment/climat/pdf/future_action/communication.pdf [Accessed on 1 May 2009]
258
The Economist (27 March 2008). New ways to save trees. Available online at http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_
The Economist (18 May 2009). Growing on trees. Available online at http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/greenview/displaystory.cfm?story_
Ibid.
261
Cline, William R. (2007). Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
BBC (19 November 2008). Daewoo leases African plantation. Available online at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7737643.stm [Accessed on 20 May 2009]
152
264
Financial Times (18 March 2009). Madagascar scraps Daewoo farm deal. Available online at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e133310-13ba-11de-9e32-0000779fd2ac.
Wikipedia (2009). Magagascar. Available online at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madagascar [Accessed on 14 August 2009]
266
The New Review (9 August 2009). Wish you werent here. The Independent on Sunday.
267
Kuwait News Agency (11 October 2008). Pakistan eyeing corporate farming amid rising wheat crisis. Available online at: http://tinyurl.com/63dhlh [Accessed on 06
January 2009]
268
The New Review (9 August 2009). Wish you werent here. The Independent on Sunday.
269
Land Centre for Human Rights (15 October 2008). Once more the farmers of the village of El-Mrashda are standing in the face of the blowing wind.Who will
protect their rights. Available online at: http://www.lchr-eg.org/112/08-36.htm [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
270
Down to Earth (August 2008). Merauke mega-project raises food fears. Available online at: http://dte.gn.apc.org/78dpad.htm [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
No. 78.
271
MNP (2006) (Edited by A.F. Bouwman, T. Kram and K. Klein Goldewijk), Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4.
Ibid.
273
Ibid.
274
Wikepedia (2009). Supply and demand. Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_%26_Demand [Accessed on 05 May 2009]
275
Wikepedia (2009). Price elasticity of demand. Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand [Accessed on 05 May 2009]
276
277
OECD-FAO (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017. OECD, Paris. http://www.agri-outlook.org/dataoecd/54/15/40715381.pdf [Accessed on 21 May 2009].
278
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
IFPRI (2007). The World Food Situation: New Driving Forces and Required Actions. IFPRI, Washington D.C. Available online at: http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr18.pdf
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
OECD-FAO (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017. OECD, Paris. http://www.agri-outlook.org/dataoecd/54/15/40715381.pdf [Accessed on 21 May 2009].
282
Ibid.
283
Ibid.
284
Ibid.
285
Ibid.
286
Ibid.
287
Ibid.
288
Banse et al. (2008). Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets? European Review of Agricultural Economics 35 (2): 117-141.
289
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
OECD-FAO (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017. OECD, Paris. http://www.agri-outlook.org/dataoecd/54/15/40715381.pdf [Accessed on 21 May 2009].
291
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
World Bank (2007). World Development Report 2007: Development and the Next Generation. World Bank, Washington, D.C.
293
World Bank (2008). Rising Food and Fuel Prices: Addressing the Risks to Future Generations. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.
FAO (2008): The state of food and agriculture 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0100e/i0100e00.htm [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
295
Telegraph Online (12 July 2008). The Great Biofuels Con. Available online at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/3347046/The-Great-Biofuels-Con.html [Accessed on
153
20 August 2009]
296
Searchinger et al. (2008). Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change
297
Fitzherbert et al. (2008). How will oil palm expansion affect biodiversity? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 23 (10): 528-545.
298
UNEP (2008). In Dead Water. Merging of Climate Change With Pollution, Over-Harvest, and Infestations in the Worlds Fishing Grounds.
299
Ethridge et al. (2006). World cotton outlook: Projections to 2015/16. Beltwide Cotton Conferences, San Antonio, Texas January 3-6, 2006. Available online at:
Ibid.
301
OECD (2008) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030. Available online at: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/29/33/40200582.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
302
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
OECD-FAO (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017. OECD, Paris. Available online at: http://www.agri-outlook.org/dataoecd/44/18/40713249.pdf [Accessed on the
20 January 2009].
304
Ibid.
305
OECD (2008). Rising Food Prices, Causes and Consequences. OECD, Paris. Available online at: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/42/40847088.pdf [Accessed on the
20 January 2009].
306
David Strahan (14 June 2009). We need a stable oil price but were at the mercy of Opec. The Independent. Available online at: http://www.independent.co.uk/
FAO (2008): The state of food and agriculture 2008. FAO, Rome. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0100e/i0100e00.htm [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
308
Wikipedia (2009). Peak Oil. Available online at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil [Accessed on the 22 May 2009].
Hirsch et al (2005). Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management. Science Applications International Corporation, commissioned by the
US Department of Energy.
309
Hirsch et al (2007). Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts. Science Applications International Corporation, commissioned by the US Department of
Energy.
310
Cohen, Dave (2007-10-31). The Perfect Storm. Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Available online at: http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.
php?option=com_content&task=view&id=243&Itemid=91 [Accessed on 27 July 2008]
311
Badrya Darwish (16 June 2008). What lies beneath? Kuwaiti Times. Available online at: http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MjM0ODI5MzU=
[Accessed on 23 June 2009]
312
313
The Oil Drum (2009). World Oil Production. Available online at: http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PeakOil1.png [Accessed on 23 June 2009]
David Strahan (14 June 2009). We need a stable oil price but were at the mercy of Opec. The Independent. Available online at: http://www.independent.co.uk/
news/business/analysis-and-features/we-need-a-stable-oil-price-ndash-but-were-at-the-mercy-of-opec-1704577.html [Accessed on 23 June 2009]
314
UNCTAD (2007). The Least Developed Countries Report 2007. UNACTAD, Geneva, Switzerland. Available online at: http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/ldc2007_en.pdf
[Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
315
Arabian Business (4th February 2009). Oil output could fall by 30m bpd by 2015 Merrill. Available online at: http://www.arabianbusiness.com/545723-oil-outputcould-fall-by-30m-bpd-by-2015---merrill [Accessed on the 27 May 2009].
316
Business 24/7 (11th February 2009). Global oil production will decline further Merrill Lynch. Available online at: http://www.business24-7.ae/Articles/2009/2/Pages/
02112009_2605ba6d866a4f20ae95fcbf54cb6ca5.aspx [Accessed on the 27 May 2009].
317
Arabian Business (4th February 2009). Oil output could fall by 30m bpd by 2015 Merrill. Available online at: http://www.arabianbusiness.com/545723-oil-outputcould-fall-by-30m-bpd-by-2015---merrill [Accessed on the 27 May 2009].
318
John Kemp (4 August 2009). Peak Oil is right answer to wrong question. Reuters. Available online at http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSTRE57
335G20090804?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0 [Accessed on 5 August 2009]
319
Steve Connor (3 August 2009). Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast. The Independent, Science. Available online at: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/
science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html [Accessed on 05 August 2009]
320
Oil Voice (5 August 2009). US$200 Oil Price Predicted by UK Energy Expert in Adelaide. Accessed online at: http://www.oilvoice.com/n/US200_Oil_Price_Predicted_
by_UK_Energy_Expert_in_Adelaide/f6365f77b.aspx [Accessed on 6 August 2009]
321
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDFw47.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009].
322
Hirsch et al (2007). Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts. Science Applications International Corporation, commissioned by the US Department of
Energy.
323
324
Eric Reguly (16 June 2009). BP retreats to a paler shade of green. The Globe and Mail.
154
Hirsch et al (2007). Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts. Science Applications International Corporation, commissioned by the US Department of
Energy.
325
326
Financial Times (24 June 2009). US carmakers offered green car incentives. Financial Times Companies & Markets.
Peter Hughes (2009). The beginning of the end for oil? Peak oil: A Demand-side Phenomenon? Arthur D Little Consulting. Available online at: www.adl.com/peakoil
[Accessed on 11 July 2009]
327
Yves Engler & Bianca Mugyenyi (June 2005). Chinas cars on road to ruin? People and Planet. Available online at: http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=2484
[Accessed on 11 July 2009]
328
Dave Cohen (December 2007). Car Crazy. Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Available online at: http://www.aspo-usa.com/archives/index.
php?option=com_content&task=view&id=257&Itemid=91 [Accessed on 11 July 2009]
329
Yves Engler & Bianca Mugyenyi (June 2005). Chinas cars on road to ruin? People and Planet. Available online at: http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=2484
[Accessed on 11 July 2009]
330
Heller, Martin C., and Gregory A. Keoleian. Life Cycle-Based Sustainability Indicators for Assessment of the U.S. Food System. Ann Arbor, MI: Center for Sustainable
Systems, University of Michigan, 2000: 42.
331
Horrigan, Leo, Robert S. Lawrence, and Polly Walker. How Sustainable Agriculture Can Address the Environmental and Human Health Harms of Industrial
Agriculture. Environmental Health Perspectives 110, no. 5 (May 5, 2002) (accessed August 29, 2006).
332
Heller, Martin C., and Gregory A. Keoleian. Life Cycle-Based Sustainability Indicators for Assessment of the U.S. Food System. Ann Arbor, MI: Center for Sustainable
Systems, University of Michigan, 2000: 42.
333
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
334
FAO (2003). World agriculture: towards 2015/2030. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/004/y3557e/y3557e.pdf [Accessed on the 20
January 2009].
335
Green et al. (2005). Sparing land for nature: exploring the potential impact of changes in agricultural yield on the area needed for crop production. Global Change
Biology 10 (11): 1594-1605.
336
Heller, Martin C., and Gregory A. Keoleian. Life Cycle-Based Sustainability Indicators for Assessment of the U.S. Food System. Ann Arbor, MI: Center for Sustainable
Systems, University of Michigan, 2000: 40.
337
338
Manning, Richard. The Oil We Eat: Following the Food Chain Back to Iraq. Harpers, July 23, 2004.
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (February 2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food
crises. Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
339
340
Ibid.
341
Ibid.
342
Financial Times (30 May 2009). Landowners cast net wider to make a living. Financial Times Newspaper.
343
Ibbotson Associates (1991). Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: 1991 Yearbook.
344
Kaplan, H.M. (1985). Farmland as a Portfolio Investment. Journal of Portfolio Management (12): 73-78.
Hancock Agricultural Investment Group (2009). From the website of Hancock Agricultural Investment Group, an MFC Global Investment Management Company.
Available online at: http://www.haig.jhancock.com/ [Accessed on 1st June 2009]
345
Webb, J.R. and J.H. Rubens (1988). The Effect of Alternative Return Measures on Restricted Mixed-Asset Portfolios. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban
Economics Association (16): 123-37.
346
David A. Lins, Bruce J. Sherrick, Aravind Venigalla (1992). Institutional Portfolios: Diversification through Farmland Investment. Journal of the American Real Estate
and Urban Economics Association 20 (4): 549-571. http://www.areuea.org/publications/ree/articles/V20/REE.V20.4.4.PDF
347
348
Ibid.
349
350
351
The Economist (2009). Green Shoots, The Economist News Article, 19/03/2009.
352
Bloomberg (22 January 2009). Queen Skirts U.K. Real Estate Slump as Farmland Gains in Value. Available online at: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206
01208&sid=aywFbc47MhdQ [Accessed on 23 April 2009]
353
Money Management Letter (10 December 2008). The Alaska Retirement Management Board has been successfully tapping high-return asset classes without losing
sight of risk, volatility and costs. Available online at: http://www.moneymanagementletter.com/articleFree.aspx?ArticleID=2065965 [Accessed on 23 April 2009]
354
355
Hardin, W. and Cheng, P. (2002). Farmland Investment Under Conditions of Certainty and Uncertainty. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 25 (1): 81-98.
356
357
Financial Times (30 September 2008). Agriculture: The battle to bring more land into production
155
358
Hardin, W. and Cheng, P. (2002). Farmland Investment Under Conditions of Certainty and Uncertainty. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 25 (1): 81-98.
Barras, Laurent, Scaillet , O. and Wermers, Russ R. (April 20, 2009). False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas. Journal of
Finance, Forthcoming; Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 08-18. Available online at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=869748 [Accessed on 16 June 2009]
359
Lence, Sergio H. and Douglas J. Miller (1999). Transaction Costs and the Present Value Model of Farmland: Iowa, 1900-1994. American Journal of Agricultural
Economics 81, May, 257-272.
360
FTSE Index Company (2007). FTSE APCIMS Private Investor Index Series Fact Sheet. Available online at: http://www.ftse.com/Indices/FTSE_APCIMS_Private_Investor_
Index_Series/Downloads/FTSE_APCIMS_Private_Investor_Index_Series_0607.pdf [Accessed on 23 April 2009]
361
362
Ibid.
FTSE Index Company, APCIMS (2009). Ground Rules for the FTSE APCIMS Private Investor Indices. Version 2.4 January 2009. Available online at: http://www.ftse.
com/Indices/FTSE_APCIMS_Private_Investor_Index_Series/Downloads/apcims_indexrules.pdf [Accessed on 23 April 2009]
363
364
Lins, D., A. Kowalski, and C. Hoffman (1992). Institutional Investment Diversification: Foreign Stocks vs U.S. Farmland. In Proceedings of Regional Research
Committee NC-161, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhatten, Kansas. February.
365
Moss, Charles B., Allen M. Featherstone, and Timothy G. Baker (1987). Agricultural Assets in an Efficient Multi-Period Investment Portfolio. Agricultural Finance
Review. 47: 82-94
366
Lins, D., A. Kowalski, and C. Hoffman (1992). Institutional Investment Diversification: Foreign Stocks vs U.S. Farmland. In Proceedings of Regional Research
Committee NC-161, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhatten, Kansas. February.
367
Fortune Magazine (16 June 2009). Betting the Farm: As world population expands, the demand for arable land should soar. At least thats what George Soros, Lord
Rothschild, and other investors believe. Available online at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/08/retirement/betting_the_farm.fortune/index.htm?section=money_latest
[Accessed on 10 August 2009]
368
UK Land & Farms (2009). Banking On It - The asset for this economic climate. UK Land & Farms is a website operated by The Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
Plc, a member of the Lloyds TSB Group. Available online at: http://www.uklandandfarms.co.uk/agricultural-land-prices-news/FARMLAND-Market-Banking-On-It/
[Accessed on 10 August 2009]
369
Fortune Magazine (16 June 2009). Betting the Farm: As world population expands, the demand for arable land should soar. At least thats what George Soros, Lord
Rothschild, and other investors believe. Available online at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/08/retirement/betting_the_farm.fortune/index.htm?section=money_latest
[Accessed on 10 August 2009]
370
371
Money Week (29 May 2009). Cover Story, Can farms bear fruit for investors?
372
Knight Frank (2009). The Wealth Report, Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank, 2009.
Shiha, Amr N. and Jean-Paul Chavas (1995). Capital Market Segmentation and U.S. Farm Real Estate Pricing, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77,
May, 397-407.
373
374
Authors conversation with Gordon Verrall (June 2009). Gordon Verrall is a director of Farmanco, a leading Australian agricultural management consulting firm.
375
Ibid.
Fortune Magazine (16 June 2009). Betting the Farm: As world population expands, the demand for arable land should soar. At least thats what George Soros, Lord
Rothschild, and other investors believe. Available online at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/08/retirement/betting_the_farm.fortune/index.htm?section=money_latest
[Accessed on 10 August 2009]
376
Alex Evans (2009). The Feeding of the Nine Billion, Global Food Security for the 21st Century. Chatham House (Royal Institute of International Affairs). Available
online at: http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/13179_r0109food.pdf [Accessed on 21 July 2009]
377
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
378
John Roach (2nd June 2008). With U.S. Farmland Maxed Out, Growers Tap Into Reserves. National Geographic News. Available online at: for http://news.
nationalgeographic.com/news/food_crisis_02.html. [Accessed on 20 January 2009]
379
Alex Evans (2009). The Feeding of the Nine Billion, Global Food Security for the 21st Century. Chatham House (Royal Institute of International Affairs). Available
online at: http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/13179_r0109food.pdf [Accessed on 21 July 2009]
380
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
381
382
Ibid.
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDFw47.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009]
383
384
UN Population Division (2007). UN 2006 population revision. UN, New York. Available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ [Accessed on 20 January 2009].
World Bank (2009). Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDFw47.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January 2009]
385
United Nations Environment Programme Rapid Response Assessment (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: The environments role in averting future food crises.
Available online at http://www.grida.no/_res/site/file/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf [Accessed on 20 April 2009]
386
156
FAO (2006b). Livestocks long shadow, pp. 416. FAO, Rome. Available online at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf [Accessed on the 20 January
2009].
387
Donald Mitchell (July 2008). A Note on Rising Food Prices. The World Bank Development Prospects Group. Available online at: http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/
servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2008/07/28/000020439_20080728103002/Rendered/PDF/WP4682.pdf [Accessed on 3 August 2009]
388
389
IMF (2008). World Economic Outlook 2008. Available online at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/pdf/text.pdf [Accessed on 31 July 2009]
Nikos Alexandratos (December 2008). Food Price Surges: Possible Causes, Past Experiences and Relevance for Exploring Long-Term Prospects. Population and
Development Review, 34 (4): 663697. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/es/ESD/FoodPriceSurges-Alexandratos.pdf [Accessed on 31 July 2009]
390
Jeffrey Currie (2007). Food, Feed and Fuels: An outlook on the agriculture, livestock and biofuels markets. Goldman Sachs International. Available online at: http://
www.gceholdings.com/pdf/GoldmanReportFoodFeedFuel.pdf [Accessed on 31 July 2009]
391
United Nations (1999). The World at Six Billion. The United Nations Population Division. Available online at: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/
sixbilpart1.pdf [Accessed on 21 July 2009]
392
Alex Evans (2009). The Feeding of the Nine Billion, Global Food Security for the 21st Century. Chatham House (Royal Institute of International Affairs). Available
online at: http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/13179_r0109food.pdf [Accessed on 21 July 2009]
393
394
Ibid.
395
UN Population Division (2007). UN 2006 population revision. UN, New York. Available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ [Accessed on 20 January 2009]
396
Wikipedia (2009). Green Revolution. Available online at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_revolution [Accessed on 03 August 2009]
397
398
UN High Level Task Force on the Global Food Crisis (2008). Comprehensive Framework for Action. New York: United Nations.
Alex Evans (2009). The Feeding of the Nine Billion, Global Food Security for the 21st Century. Chatham House (Royal Institute of International Affairs). Available
online at: http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/13179_r0109food.pdf [Accessed on 21 July 2009]
399
Jim Rogers (15 June 2009). Buy Farmland. The Best Investment Of Our Lifetime. Jim Rogers Blog. Available online at: http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.
com/2009/06/buy-farmland-best-investment-of-our.html. [Accessed on 31 July 2009]
400
Jim Rogers (3 June 2009). Interview to the Economic Times. Jim Rogers Blog. Available online at: http http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/06/interviewto-economic-times-june-2009.html. [Accessed on 31 July 2009]
401
157