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:: Introduction
Panida Jirutitijaroen
12/27/2010
About Me
Panida Jirutitijaroen.
Bangkok, Thailand.
Research Area:
Reliability Theory Applied to Power Systems.
Optimization Techniques Applied to Power Systems.
http://www.ece.nus.edu.sg/stfpage/elejp/
Email: elejp@nus.edu.sg
Office: E2-03-19
12/27/2010
Outline
12/27/2010
Overview
Assessment
Scope
Objective
12/27/2010
Overview
Lecture: Friday 6-9 PM @ E4-04-05.
From August 27th onwards, well meet at PC cluster 3
@ E2-03-06.
Assessment
Three exams.
Exam1 20%: 25/09 (Saturday)
Exam2 20%: 06/11 (Saturday)
Final 40%: 01/12
Expectation
Attend lecture.
Do homework.
And,..
Please be considerate to other classmates and
lecturer by coming to the class on time.
Lecture will start at 6PM.
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Scope
Power System Reliability
Electric power
System
Reliability
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Road Map
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Theory
Application
Objectives
What you will learn from this class
1. Understand basic reliability concepts and
reliability measures
2. Be able to perform reliability analysis of a
small system using analytical tools.
3. Be able to perform reliability analysis of a
large system using simulation tools.
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10
What is reliability?
What causes a system to fail?
How to model uncertainties?
INTRODUCTION TO RELIABILITY
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11
12
Line 1
Load
Load
Line 2
System B
System A
13
Line 1
Load
Load
Line 2
System B
System A
14
100
Load 100 MW
System A
100
100
100
Load 100 MW
System B
100
Load 100 MW
System C
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100
Load 150 MW
System A
100
150
150
Load 150 MW
System B
300
Load 150 MW
System C
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What Is Reliability?
Ability of a component/system to perform its
intended function
Within a specified period of time
Under stated condition
Qualitative sense in terms of performance
function, time, and surrounding conditions
How to quantify reliability?
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Reliability
Relate to the absence of failures, that due to
random phenomenon
Define numerically as average or mean value
Can be treated as a parameter
Can be traded off with other parameters such
as cost
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18
Human factors
System design
Operation condition
Maintenance procedure
Deterioration (function of time)
Random failures
Uncertainties
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Frequency of failure
In terms of number of failure within specified time
Easier to predict from history
Express in per hour, per day, per year
20
G
100 MW
100 MW
Load
100 MW
Load
100 MW
System B
System A
Failure Probability
0.009
70
0.01
25
21
100
100
100
Load 100 MW
Load 100 MW
System A
100
Load 100 MW
System B
100
System C
System
Failure
Probability
Cost
(million SGD)
0.001
300
0.01
200
0.1
100
22
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23
24
Objective
Interest to know the likelihood that a component
or a system will fail.
Time-to-failure distribution of a
component/system.
25
Component Modeling
Identify components in the system
Describe state of each component
For example, a generator has two states, up or
down.
26
Observation of A Component
Z(t)
2
1
0
Z(t)
Time
2
1
0
Time
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System Modeling
System configuration/topology
How each component interact
C1
C1
C1
C2
C8
C2
C6
C3
C9
C5
C11
C7
C10
C4
C12
C2
28
Performance Function
To evaluate system reliability
Recall,
Ability of a system to perform its
intended function
Need to define intended function
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Reliability Evaluation
Each component described by random variables
For example, a generator has 3 capacity output, 100
MW with 0.85 probability, 50 MW with 0.14
probability, 0 MW with 0.01 probability
30
INTRODUCTION TO POWER
SYSTEMS
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31
Transmission system
High voltage transmission lines
Distribution system
Low voltage transmission lines
End users
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33
34
Transmission network
Distribution network
35
http://www.nerc.com/regional/NERC_Interconnections_color.jpg
36
1275
1275
1275
1275
37
Load
Moment-to-moment
fluctuations
Hour-to-hour changes
Daily
Weekly
Seasonal
x 10
ERCOT Weekly Load Curve from Aug. 19th to Aug. 22, 2006
Load (MW)
Sun.
Mon.
Day
Tue.
Wed.
38
39
Operational Conditions
Secure operation
Component physical limit.
How to operate the system securely?
Economic operation
Cost of operation differs by type of fuel.
How to operate the system with least cost?
Reliable operation
Power Quality, interruptions,
brownout and blackout
How to operate the system reliably?
40
System load
Vary with time
Construct load distribution from history
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44
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http://www.powerworld.com/images/7-bus%20Oneline.jpg
46
47
http://www.tpub.com/content/construction/14027/css/14027_63.htm
48
Reliability indexes
Reliability criterion
49
Probabilistic indexes
Reflect uncertainties in the system
Require failure statistics of the devices
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Deterministic Indexes
Operating reserve margin
Excess generation capacity in case of emergency
Percentage reserve
Amount of reserve capacity as a percentage of the
total peak load
51
Probabilistic Indexes
Loss of load probability
Probability that generation will not meet demand
in a year
Commonly shown as number of hours/days. (by
multiply LOLP by number of hours/days in a year)
52
Design problems
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Probabilistic criteria
Loss of load expectation, for example, 1 day in 10
years
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Cost-Benefit Analysis
High reliability achieved with high cost
Is it worthwhile to have high reliability?
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http://www.eppo.go.th/power/ERI-study-E/ERI-EOCS-1-E.html
EE5712 Power System Reliability
55
Summary
We know what reliability is
We know a bit about power system reliability
We need to know
Probability theory
Reliability theory
Random processes
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56
Reading Materials
Review basic probability theory
Random variables
Probability rules (addition, multiplication,
Conditional probability
Probability distribution functions
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