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INHERITANCE
❖
T he World
Obama C onf r onts
and the Challenges
to A mer ican Power
DAVID E. SANGER
Harmony Books
New York
ISBN 978-0-307-40793-1
1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
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The Inheritance
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Contents
Preface vii
Introduction: The Briefing xv
PART I: IRAN
THE MULLAHS’ MANHATTAN PROJECT 1
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PART V: CHINA
NEW TORCH, OLD DRAGONS 345
PART VI:
THE THREE VULNERABILITIES 397
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Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will
be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange
voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter.
The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the
signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave
of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War
Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant Commanders,
untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly
surprises, awful miscalculations—all take their seats at the
Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war.
—Winston Churchill, My Early Life, 1930
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and the world, have come to realize that while installing a new occu-
pant of the Oval Office can dramatically change the tone and image
of the United States, it does not make the knot of Afghanistan easier
to untangle, the mullahs of Iran more pliant, the political problems
of global warming or energy use, or the rise of new global competi-
tors less urgent. In the first few months of the new administration,
all seemed possible. Now, as Obama himself often says to his advis-
ers, the biggest challenge is coping with impatience.
No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the
commentators reminded us too many times during those inaugural
ceremonies, had inherited a range of problems so seemingly in-
tractable and complex, or a country less certain of its future. Two
wars, an economic crisis that seemed at risk of tipping the country
into a second Great Depression, and a range of new threats that had
festered while the country’s attention and resources were focused
on Iraq seemed to prove Churchill’s famous caution.
In the years before Barack Obama’s election, America knew that
it had taken its eye off the ball. Iraq had proven to be the great dis-
traction—the war so all-consuming for the top leadership of the
country that more potent threats went unaddressed, many huge
opportunities unexploited.
In an American presidential election like none before, Obama
had promised to refocus America’s attention—to withdraw from
Iraq so that America could focus anew on a war in Afghanistan that
he argued was at the center of America’s security concerns; to stop
Iran’s steady march toward acquiring the capability to build a nu-
clear weapon; and to deal with North Korea and other failing states
with nuclear ambitions. He vowed to redefine our relationships
with China and hit the Reset button with Russia. Obama promised
to reverse America’s detention and interrogation policies, which
had tragically diminished the country’s standing in the eyes of the
world. He vowed to reverse an economic crisis that threatened not
only jobs but also America’s power and influence. Most important,
Obama promised to end an era of huge opportunity costs—and to
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David E. Sanger
Washington, D.C.
December, 2009
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THE BRIEFING
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* The encounters with Pakistani officials that led McConnell to this conclusion
are described in chapter 8, “Crossing the Line.”
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that,” one of the participants said. “More than you might expect.” (It
was a subject that struck close to home: Both the Obama and Mc-
Cain campaigns’ computer systems were hacked during the race, the
kinds of attacks the federal government and American businesses
face each day. The intrusions appeared to have come from abroad.) 5
It was a daunting set of conflicts as broad and complex as those
that Britain faced a century ago or that Franklin Roosevelt faced in
1933. It was a lot to digest. Obama and McConnell vaguely agreed to
try to meet again before the election for another “deep dive”—
McConnell’s phrase for a plunge into specific subjects, something
he did frequently with Bush.
The follow-up session did not happen before Election Day. Two
weeks after the briefing came the second September shock of the
Bush era: the collapse of Lehman Brothers, followed by the terrifying
plunge of America’s financial markets—and then the world’s. The last
eight weeks of the campaign were dominated by questions of how to
right the economy: bailout plans were announced, discarded, refor-
mulated, and announced again by Bush and his treasury secretary,
Henry Paulson. There were emergency meetings at the White House
that in one case put both Obama and McCain at the same table in the
Roosevelt Room, with Bush in the middle; and a $700 billion author-
ization by Congress, reluctantly supported by both Obama and Mc-
Cain, to save some of America’s biggest institutions and try to
stabilize a crumbling market. It was rocky territory for McCain, who
had regularly praised deregulation and declared on the day of the
Lehman collapse that “the fundamentals of the economy are strong,”
a sentence that seemed so out of touch with reality that it cost him im-
measurably.
Then, at a little past eleven p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, Novem-
ber 4, exactly nine weeks after that meeting at the FBI, McConnell’s
world of problems became Obama’s future. In a night that shim-
mered with history, Americans decisively—but not overwhelmingly—
repudiated George W. Bush and his approach to the world. They
embraced a candidate with less experience than Jack Kennedy had in
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1960 and elected the first black president since George Washington, a
slave-holder, took the oath of office.
His victory secure, Obama appeared at a huge rally in Chicago’s
Grant Park. He had canceled the campaign’s plans for fireworks
and strode to the oversized wooden podium with a relaxed air of
command, but little sign of jubilance.
“If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a
place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of
our founders is still alive in our time, who still questions the power
of our democracy, tonight is your answer,” Obama said as he peered
out over a crowd of more than 100,000, a pastiche of a new America:
white and black and Hispanic and Asian. It was a crowd whose
many dreams had been poured into the man just elected the forty-
fourth president of the United States.
But Obama knew that while parts of the world would welcome
him as the anti-Bush, it would not be long before he would be
tested. Something in McConnell’s thirteen briefing papers—or
something that the intelligence apparatus did not anticipate—
would soon erupt. Then would come the moment to show that he,
like another young senator propelled into the presidency on soaring
oratory and a nation’s hope for a fresh start, had a spine of steel. In
a speech that Obama crafted to sound less like a victory celebration
and more like an inaugural address, he added some Kennedy-esque
lines that suggested that while an Obama administration would be
about diplomacy and dialogue—with enemies as well as friends—it
would not be about weakness.
“To those who would tear the world down: We will defeat you,”
he told the throng. “To those who seek peace and security: We will
support you.”
It was an inspiring declaration, aimed at an audience far beyond
America’s shores. But Obama’s neat separation of the world into
builders and destroyers had echoes of the man leaving the White
House, the president who had famously declared early in his first
term to all the nations of the world that “you’re either with us or
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* Bush uttered the famous phrase several times, but most clearly at a joint news
conference in the Rose Garden with Jacques Chirac, then the president of France,
on November 6, 2001.
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Crawford with these two guys still walking around ate at the presi-
dent,” one of Bush’s aides told me. “He didn’t say it, but you could see
it in the new strategy.” During the campaign, Obama voiced support
for going into Pakistan to hunt al Qaeda. But what Bush had ordered
was something far more extensive: a search for extremists of many
stripes—a very different kind of undeclared war, and one that, as
Bush left office, was already prompting a ferocious backlash among
Pakistanis.
Obama would soon learn of another major covert operation,
also born of desperation. This time the target was Iran.
Sanctions had taken their toll on the Iranian economy but had
not changed the regime’s behavior. Secretary of Defense Robert
Gates had made clear that a military strike, while possible, would
have awful repercussions. Whatever his inner thoughts, Bush pro-
fessed to agree. “I think it’s absolutely absurd,” Bush insisted to a
group of White House reporters in early 2007, “that people suspect
I am trying to find a pretext to attack Iran.” He was talking as if his
first term, and the preemption doctrine, had never happened.
Early in 2008, Bush authorized something just short of an at-
tack: a series of new covert actions, some that the United States
would conduct alone, others designed in consultation with the Is-
raelis and the Europeans. Most were centered on a last-ditch effort
to undermine the industrial infrastructure around Natanz, the site
of Iran’s largest known nuclear enrichment plant. Such attempts
had been made before, even during the Clinton administration, but
now the clock was ticking faster. Few believed the effort would
amount to much. “We may be past the point of stopping the Irani-
ans,” one senior intelligence official acknowledged to me months
after Bush signed the orders. But the hope was that the covert ac-
tions would at least slow down Iran’s effort to produce enough nu-
clear fuel for several weapons.
Obama had vowed never to allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon.
During the post-election transition, however, several of his top ad-
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* The secret Israeli approach to the Bush White House is discussed at greater
length in chapter 4, “The Israel Option.”
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turned our backs on Afghanistan after the Soviet troops left in the
late 1980s.” (At that time George H. W. Bush was in office, and
Gates himself was at the CIA.) He pulled no punches about the
NATO allies in Afghanistan, asking the question of what to do
when “some of your allies don’t want to fight.” By his own account,
he had learned during his years in the intelligence world to frame
the question in this way: “If we do this, what will they do? Then
what? And then what?” He would never say so, but he was trying to
force an administration and a president who had spent the first
term imagining how a quick victory in Iraq would beget a resur-
gence of American power to adjust themselves to a world in which
some investments go bad.
“We are overinvested in Iraq; it’s fixing us in place,” one of Gates’s
closest high-ranking allies told me in the Pentagon one day in the
summer of 2007. The war was about to become America’s longest
military commitment, save for the American Revolution, and he
compared his and Gates’s problem to one of managing a portfolio
with some money-losing stocks—the familiar trap of sunken costs.
“It’s like you invested in a bad mutual fund. You know, then you get
your emotions tied up in the investment. You had an objective in
mind—maybe sending the kids to college. But you become so enam-
ored of the fund that over time you lost track of the objective. And
suddenly you find that you are getting negative returns, but you just
can’t get yourself out.”
Gates’s hope was to get down to ten combat brigades in Iraq by
the time Bush left office—which was about half the fighting force at
the time we spoke. (He didn’t make it, but came close; as Bush was
preparing to leave office, the force was down to fourteen combat
brigades.)
Once America got on the path out of Iraq, Gates said to me in
his office a few months before his Senate testimony, a new presi-
dent could begin to prepare the American public for the fact that
we would need a far, far longer commitment to Afghanistan. That
was clearly a message Obama’s faithful did not want to hear.
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The Inheritance
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