New Internationalist, December 2007

SPECIAL FEATURE

How to withdraw from Iraq

Chris Abbott makes some proposals…

With Iraq in a state of bloody chaos, many, from both sides of the political divide, are calling for an
immediate withdrawal of all foreign forces. No matter what the consequences of withdrawal, they
argue, the Coalition presence is only making the security situation worse and is helping to fuel the
insurgency.

Not everyone agrees. Some argue that the

Coalition forces should ‘stay the course’ and that
withdrawal would precipitate a civil war, leaving
the fate of the country to be decided by violence.
It could result in Iraq becoming a failed state and
a haven for al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups.
They fear it would damage the US’s and Britain’s
‘national interests’ and international credibility by
handing a victory to the terrorists.

But Iraq is already in a civil war. Day by day, jihadist paramilitaries are gaining experience in urban
combat against arguably the best equipped and trained military in the world, the US Army and
Marine Corps. Meanwhile, the interests and credibility of the US, Britain and other Coalition partners
are only damaged further by this prolonged and disastrous occupation.

The choice, however, is not simply between ‘stay the course’ or ‘cut and run’. Nor should withdrawal
itself be seen as either ‘surrender’ or ‘the answer to all of Iraq’s problems’. It is dangerous that the
current debate is being thus polarized.

The simple fact is that Coalition troops need to be withdrawn from Iraq because most of the
insurgency is actually a resistance to foreign occupation. The majority of Iraqis now want withdrawal.
But because a significant part of the violence is occurring between Iraq’s diverse factions and
communities, withdrawal on its own could have deadly consequences. It could be as disastrous as
the invasion itself. The countries responsible for the invasion cannot simply pull out and leave the
Iraqi people to their fate. While they may not be a part of the solution, they have a grave
responsibility to support the Iraqi Government in finding a way to ensure the long-term security of
the country.

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Reports commissioned – and ignored

The Iraq Study Group was a bipartisan Congressional panel facilitated by the United States Institute
of Peace and tasked with assessing the situation in Iraq and recommending policies to the US
Government. The Group’s final report – published in December 2006 – focused on the phased
withdrawal of troops and diplomatic engagement with Iraq’s neighbours. Despite promising to take
the report seriously, President Bush largely ignored the Group’s findings and took the opposite
course of committing to the ‘surge’. View the report: http://tinyurl.com/ts4vs

The UK Iraq Commission was an independent, cross-party group, tasked with producing a blueprint
for future British involvement in Iraq. The final report – published in July 2007 – argued that only
Iraqis can improve the situation in Iraq, but that they needed British support to do so. Despite being
televised, the Commission did not generate as much interest as the US Iraq Study Group had, and
the final report was largely overshadowed by Gordon Brown’s arrival as the new Prime Minister.
View the report: http://tinyurl.com/3anf4a

Following George W Bush’s rejection of the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group report and the lack of
impact of its British equivalent, many in the political, media, academic and activist communities
seem to have accepted that nothing can be done, that there is little point in suggesting ways forward
for Iraq because they will simply be ignored. But there is a moral imperative not only to keep
pointing out the failure of current policies but also to suggest alternative ways forward.
The change of Prime Minister in Britain and growing unease within the US political system present
the opportunity for a break with the past. This is why new policies that go beyond withdrawal are so
important at this juncture.

They might include the following proposals aimed at resolving some of the causes of the conflict:

1 Withdrawal of combat troops

There should be a rapid withdrawal of all foreign combat troops from Iraq. This should be linked to
political and financial support for a new UN or regional stabilization force, but should not be
dependent on such a force. While it is likely that such a force will still face resistance, the absence
of US and British troops will help to calm many elements of the insurgency, leading to far more
manageable levels of violence. The withdrawal should be carried out in discussion with the Iraqi
Government and the governments of other countries with troops in Iraq, but should not be delayed
because of this. The withdrawal must be coupled with engagement with regional powers, such as
Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Iraq’s other neighbours, including Syria. These countries have a vested
interest in ensuring stability in Iraq, with no desire for a failed state on their borders. However
potentially unsavoury to the US, these countries will play a role in the future of Iraq, and must be
engaged with now.

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2 Assistance to the Iraqi military and security services

In place of combat troops, the Coalition governments should continue to provide training, intelligence
and financial support to the Iraqi military and security services for a limited period of time, agreed in
advance with the Iraqi Government (say, 12 months for training and intelligence and 48 months for
finance). The level of commitment should steadily decrease over this agreed timeframe, and will
need to be carefully monitored by the Iraqi Parliament. Any foreign military personnel remaining in
Iraq should serve only as instructors and advisers, with a minimum number of support troops
providing interim force protection and all being withdrawn at the end of the 12-month training period.
Longer-term arrangements might also be made for a UN-supported force guaranteeing Iraq’s
international borders and the security of any democratically elected government, but with troops
stationed outside of Iraq.

3 Support for the rebuilding of Iraq

Real security for ordinary Iraqis will not just mean freedom from the fear of violence, but must also
be based on satisfying some fairly basic needs – electricity, medical care, education, jobs – which
require a functioning state apparatus. The US, British and other Coalition governments should
therefore begin a programme of massive and sustained aid and technical support for the
reconstruction and development of Iraq. This should be unconditional and must not be in the form of
loans. Fair compensation, administered by local committees and civil society organizations, should
also be paid to civilians who have lost family members, property or livelihoods as a result of
Coalition military activity, and specific support needs to be offered to those people who have been
displaced by the conflict.

4 Non-interference in the development of Iraq’s oil reserves

With the third highest reserves in the world (behind only Saudi Arabia and Iran), oil currently
accounts for more than 90 per cent of Iraq’s government revenues, and is the main driver of the
economy. However, the current draft hydrocarbon law focuses on unnecessary Production Sharing
Agreements that essentially privatize Iraq’s oil industry by stealth. One of the most important
developments would therefore be a revised system for the fair exploitation of Iraq’s oil reserves. By
allowing foreign oil companies to benefit disproportionately, with the loss of hundreds of billions of
dollars in potential revenue for the Iraqi Government, the current course plays into the hands of the
insurgents who can easily argue that the invasion was actually about controlling Iraqi oil. There is no
reason why Iraq should not maintain democratic control over its own oil industry and use existing
government budgets to invest in developing its considerable oil reserves. Increased revenues from
developing these reserves would help to sustain the reconstruction of Iraq over the long term.

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5 Support for inclusive reconciliation initiatives

Long-term stability is dependent on all factions in the country being able to have a say in the Iraqi
political process. Genuine reconciliation will need all sides to have a place at the negotiating table,
including those insurgent groups who have targeted civilians or military personnel in terrorist attacks.
They must all be brought into the political process wherever possible; exclusion will only cause
people to turn to violence as the only course apparently available to them. Such reconciliation
initiatives would be greatly aided by an apology from key Coalition governments for the mistakes
that have been made during the invasion and occupation, and a public assurance that they will no
longer interfere in internal Iraqi affairs. A new fund should also be established to support local,
community-based conflict prevention and resolution initiatives as one of the most effective methods
for ensuring peace in Iraq’s diverse regions.

What do the Iraqi people want?

For the first time, more Iraqis now back an immediate withdrawal of foreign troops (47%) as
opposed to troops remaining until security is restored (34%).
85% of Iraqis have little or no confidence in the US and UK occupation forces.
79% oppose the presence of those forces in Iraq.
72% feel that their presence is actually making the security situation worse.
Source: BBC / ABC News / NHK, September 2007

Of course there will not be agreement with all, or perhaps any, of the above proposals. There are,
after all, no easy answers and no guarantees of success in Iraq. But that does not absolve us of our
responsibility to develop and propose positive ways out of the current fiasco.
What’s important is that we continue publicly to debate our involvement in Iraq and support those
developing effective policies for the withdrawal of troops. Governments must be made to understand
that there are ways of withdrawing troops from Iraq that will not necessarily result in disaster. It is up
to all of us to make sure this happens.

Chris Abbott is the Programme Co-ordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group and
lead author of Beyond Terror: The Truth About the Real Threats to Our World (Rider, 2007).

Chris Abbott, “How to withdraw from Iraq”, New Internationalist (December 2007)
http://www.newint.org/features/special/2007/12/01/chris-abbott/