March 17, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com

Volume 5, Issue I
Daily Exclusive

ORYZA Rice
Newsletter

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com

Vietnam, Thailand Plan to Jointly Develop

Sustainable Rice Markets

Mar 16, 2015

Agriculture Ministers of Thailand and Vietnam, who met in Hanoi on March 12, 2015, have
decided to work closely to develop sustainable rice markets in order to increase the quality and
value of rice production in the long-run, according to local sources.
Thailand and Vietnam together contribute to over half of global rice exports.The Thai
Agriculture Minister noted that rice prices in both Thailand and Vietnam have been declining
despite both being the world's biggest rice exporters due to competitive global prices. Since
Vietnam and Thailand grow similar types of rice, the Thai Minister suggested that both the
governments could work together and design a long-term strategy by defining common grain

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com
standards, quality and prices.The Vietnam Agriculture Minister reiterated the government's
intention to jointly work with Thailand to derive long-term benefits.

EU Project Uses Space and Sensory

Technology to Boost Rice Yields
Mar 16, 2015

The European Union (EU) funded project ERMES is developing new models for monitoring rice
crops through advanced information, including early warnings of possible threats, and there by
boost rice yields, according to a notice on the EU website.The project aims at integrating
innovative remote sensing and crop modelling techniques to assist farmers and authorities in rice
cultivation and monitoring activities. The data collected will be used to develop two web-based
services - Local Rice Service (LRS) and a Regional Rice Service (RRS) - to improve rice
production in Europe.
The project mainly aims to reduce production costs, achieve efficiencies and minimize the
impact of rice production on environment.The LRS provides value added information for
farmers on yields ad crop damages to farmers as well as help them in using the right amount of
fertilizers depending on the variety of rice seed used. Customized smart applications for mobile
phones and tablets are being developed to aid the farmers benefit from these services.The RRS is
a customized agro-monitoring resource for crop mapping, yield estimating and risk forecast for a
particular region.
The project is coordinated by the Institute on Electromagnetic Sensing of Environment (CNRIREA), and involves partners of four European countries (Greece, Spain, Italy, Switzerland) with
strong expertise in different scientific domains, such as: Remote Sensing, Crop Modelling,
Agronomy and Information and Communication Technology.

USDA Forecasts 2014-15 Global Milled Rice

Production at 474.9 Million Tons, Slightly
Down from Previous Year
Mar 16, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com

In its March Rice Outlook report, USDA has forecasted 2014-15 global milled rice production
at around 474.9 million tons, slightly down from an estimated 476.96 million tons in 2013-14,
and slightly up from its last month's estimates of around 474.6 million tons. Most of this year's
decline is due to expected decline in South Asia rice production, according to the U.S. agency.
USDA estimates East Asia and Southeast Asia to harvest record or near-record rice crops in
2014-15, while it forecasts a little change in production levels of South America and SubSaharan Africa.
In the latest report, USDA increased its production estimates for India 2014-15 rice production
by around 500,000 tons to around 102.5 million tons due to expected larger Rabi crop
(November - May), which accounts for about 15% of India's total production. Harvesting of Rabi
crop is likely to begin this month. USDA also raised its production estimates for Sri Lanka based
on government's reports of a higher Maha crop (September - March), which accounts for nearly
70% of Sri Lanka's rice production. However, USDA lowered its production estimates for
Thailand due to a reduction in harvested area of dry season crop, which accounts for about 2530% of Thailand's total production, by about 18%, due to ongoing drought conditions.

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com
USDA forecasts 2014-15 global rice acreage at around 159.6 million hectares, slightly down
from last year's 160.8 million hectares, and slightly down from its previous month's estimates of
around 160.2 million hectares due to an expected y/y decline in Thailand and India rice acreage.
It has forecasted the average global yield at 4.43 tons per hectare (on rough rice basis), almost
unchanged from last year as well as last month's projections.
USDA estimates 2014-15 global rice consumption and residual use at a record 483.7 million
tons, up about 2.9 million tons from last year, and up about 500,000 tons from an estimated
483.2 million tons last month. Major increases in consumption and residual use are expected in
Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines, and the U.S.
The U.S. agency estimates 2014-15 global rice ending stocks at around 97.6 million tons, down
about 8% from an estimated 106 million tons last year and down about 600,000 tons from last
month's projection of about 98.2 million tons. USDA estimates lower ending stocks in India,
Indonesia and Thailand but higher stocks in the Philippines and the U.S. It estimates 2014-15
global stocks-to-use ratio at 20.2%, down from last year's 22.1%.

Thailand to Set Up Two Panels to Investigate

G2G Rice Deals
Mar 16, 2015

The government of Thailand has decided to set up two investigative panels to probe for alleged
corruption in government-to-government (G2G) deals as part of the rice pledging scheme
introduced by the former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, according to local sources. The
scheme offered to pay farmers nearly 50% over the market prices.The probe comes after the
National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) advised the Ministry to file civil suits against the
21 accused individuals, including the former Commerce Minister, the former Deputy Commerce
Minister as well as 19 high-level officers and private sector employees, for alleged corruption in
G2G rice deals with China.
Two panels will be set up within the next ten days and the investigation is likely to be completed
by September 1, 2015. If the panels find the accused officials guilty of "deliberate or serious
reckless acts" aimed at taking advantage of their positions under the Act on Liability for
Wrongful Acts of Officials, compensation would be sought from them, and if the panels find no
grounds of corruption, the government may not recover any damages from the officials, a
Finance Ministry source was quoted as saying.

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com

One panel is attached to the Finance Ministry and will carry out probe related to the former PM.
The other panel is attached to the Commerce Ministry and will investigate the case linked to the
former Commerce Minister and his Deputy, according to local sources.The Finance Ministry
source reportedly stated that the case is the first of its kind, which aims to recover damages from
officials executing government policy. It also stated that the case would create some sort of fear
in state officials in the future.
Last month, the Thai Attorney General has filed criminal charges against the former PM for
alleged negligence in overseeing the rice pledging scheme, which brought losses to the extent of
600 billion baht (around $18 billion) to the government. Estimated losses include depreciation of
rice stocks as well as missing stocks from warehouses, according to local sources. The Supreme
Court will decide on March 19, 2015 whether to pursue the criminal case against the former PM.

Philippines Plans to Review Rice Import

Policy
6

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com
Mar 16, 2015

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) has decided to review the
government's agriculture policy especially with regard to rice imports and the quantitative
restriction (QR) regulations, local sources quoted the NEDA Director General (DG) as
saying.Speaking at a media briefing, the NEDA DG, who is also the country's Chief Economist
and Socioeconomic Planning Secretary, reportedly noted that the decision has been taken by the
Economic and Development cluster of the Cabinet. He noted that the government was
considering to repeal the Agricultural Tariffication Act of 1996, RA No.8178, under which QRs
were imposed on rice imports.
He also noted that the related government agencies, including the Department of Agriculture
(DA) have agreed to come up with proposals to eventually scrap the QR system. A technical
working group would be set up to study the benefits and risks associated with the QR regime in
rice imports as well as come up with measures to stabilize prices.The Chief Economic Secretary
noted that QRs on rice were leading to imbalance between demand and supply of rice leading to
7

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com
spike in prices. Last week, he suggested the government to remove QRs on rice imports to
stabilize rice prices in the country. He slammed the government's decision to seek extension of
the QRs on rice imports at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in order to protect the local rice
sector from foreign competition.
Last year, the WTO allowed the Philippines to extend the QRs until 2017. Under the new QR
policy, the Philippines can import 805,200 tons of rice under the minimum access volume
(MAV) of at 35% duty. Imports above the MAV will attract 50% duty.He noted that the
government should allow private sector to determine prices and also suggested that the
government needs to monitor the supply of demand for rice to avert upward pressure on prices.
He also noted that the government should focus on initiatives such has better irrigation systems
and latest agricultural technologies to increase rice production and farmers' incomes.The
National Food Authority (NFA) has decided to import 200,000 tons of rice from Thailand and
300,000 tons of rice from Vietnam under government-to-government (G2G) deals to ensure
adequate stocks ahead of the lean season as well as to curb price hikes. The NFA imported over
1.4 million tons of rice last year.

Government of Bangladesh Estimates 201415 Aman Rice Output at 13.189 Million Tons;

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com

Up 1.3% from Last Year

Mar 16, 2015

The government of Bangladesh has estimated the total output from 2014-15 Aman rice crop
(April - December) at around 13.189 million tons, up about 1.3% from around 13.023 million
tons produced in 2013-14, according to local sources.The estimates were worked out last week at
a meeting of senior officials of Agriculture Ministry, Department of Agricultural Extension
(DAE), Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and Space Research and Remote Sensing
Organization (SPARSO). The meeting also estimated the 2014-15 Aman paddy yield at around
2.385 tons per hectare.
Harvesting of 2014-15 Aman rice completed in December and the government procured around
319,977 tons of 2014-15 Aman (April - December) rice as of February 28, 2015, according to the
Food Ministry data.Harvesting of the ongoing 2015 Boro rice crop (January - May) will
complete by the end of May and the government is expecting a total output of around 19 million
tons, up about 2% from around 18.78 million tons produced in 2014. The government is planning
to procure around one million tons of Boro paddy and around 100,000 tons of Boro rice between
May 1 - August 31, 2015. The government procured around 1.06 million tons of paddy and rice
in 2014.
Bangladesh produced around 34.449 million tons of rice, basis milled, in FY 2013-14 (July June), up about 2.7% from around 33.833 million tons produced in FY 2012-13, according to
DAE data.USDA estimates Bangladesh to produce around 34.6 million tons of milled rice in MY
2014-15 (May - April), up about 1% from an estimated 34.39 million tons in MY 2013-14. It
estimates Bangladesh to import around 600,000 tons of rice in 2015, down about 20% from an
estimated 751,000 tons in 2014.

Thailand, Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Their

Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes
Unchanged
Mar 16, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com
Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and parboiled rice by about $10 per
ton and about $15 per ton respectively to around $385 - $395 each today. Pakistan rice sellers
lowered most of their quotes by about $5 - $10 per ton today. Vietnam and India rice sellers kept
their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, down about $10 per ton from Friday
and about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $365 - $375 per ton.
India 5% rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $45 per ton premium on
Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton, down about $5 per ton from Friday.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340- $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$360 - $370, about a $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $310 - $320
per ton, down about $5 per ton from Friday.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, down about $15 per ton from
Friday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, about $5 per ton discount
to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $385 - $395 per ton, down about $10 per ton from
Friday.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $15 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100%
broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $5 per ton discount to Pakistan
broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, down about $10 per ton from Friday.

Oryza Overnight Recap Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Lower Overnight Despite
Firmer Grains to Begin the Weeek
Mar 16, 2015

10

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com
Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently listed 11 cents per cwt (about $2 per
ton) lower at $10.470 per cwt (about $231 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The
other grains are seen trading higher this morning: soybeans are currently seen about 0.2% higher,
wheat is listed about 1.1% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.2% higher.U.S. stocks
opened higher on Monday, as investors eyed weakness in the dollar and oil prices ahead of
Wednesday's key Fed meeting.
The U.S. dollar index fell about half a percent on Monday after gaining nearly 3 percent in the
last week as the euro fell to 12-year lows below $1.05. Crude oil extended losses to dip below
$44 a barrel, a six-year low, while Brent fell below $54 a barrel. U.S. stocks mostly sold off last
week amid more than 1% swings as investors weighed the implications on an interest rate hike
from the dollar surge and mixed economic data. In the lull before companies begin reporting
first-quarter earnings in mid-April, few firms post results this week. Economic data is also light,
with the housing market index the only key report expected during Monday's trading session.
Before the bell, the Empire State Index posted 6.90 for March, below February's 7.78. Industrial
production rose 0.1% in February, below expectations, with capacity utilization slightly lower at
78.9%. Gold is currently trading about 0.4% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.7%
lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.7% lower at 8:00am Chicago time.

Japan Exporters Launch "This is Japan

Quality" Mission to Boost Rice Exports
Mar 16, 2015

The Japan Rice and Rice Industry Export Promotion Association has launched the "This is Japan
Quality" initiative jointly with the Agriculture Ministry to boost rice exports by highlighting the
merits of Japanese rice, according to local sources.The exporters are initially focusing on
increasing rice exports to Singapore before expanding exports globally, the Association's
Chairman was quoted as saying. Singapore has been chosen so as to take advantage of the
Singaporeans' appetite for Japanese cuisine, he said. The Chairman added they are planning to
use the high income nation as a "strategic springboard" to expand Japanese culinary culture in
Southeast Asia and spur interest in Japanese rice products.Japan exported around 1,200 tons of
rice worth around 370 million yen (around $3 million) to Singapore last year.
The Association has also launched a logo for Japanese rice and rice products as well as website
containing information on Japanese rice. Buyers can track information of various rice varieties
based on the QR codes on the packages.Japan rice export market is about 1.4 billion yen (around
11

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com

$11.5 million) and the government is keen on increasing the export value of rice and rice
products to around 60 billion yen (around $495 million) by 2020, the Director General for crop
production at the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ministry was quoted as saying. Declining
rice consumption in Japan is cited as one of the reasons for promoting exports of rice and rice
products, say local sources.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Stable

amid Limited Trade; Export Bids Getting
Zero Attention
Mar 16, 2015

The U.S. cash market was uneventful today as most buyers and seller remain uninterested in
trading this market.There are reports of some small lots trading around $10.75-$11.00 per cwt
12

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com
(about $237-$243 per ton) delivered mill for nearby however most sellers are looking to net
$11.11 per cwt (about $245 per ton) fob farm.As for export bids, most looking to buy around
$10.00-$10.15 per cwt (about $220-$224 per ton) delivered river however there is zero sell
interest at that level.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Dragged Lower along with
Corn and Beans by Falling Crude; Wheat
Rallies as Traders Turn Attention to Lack of
Moisture
Mar 16, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 5.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at
$10.525 per cwt (about $232 per ton). The other grains closed lower except for wheat which
rallied as concerns grow over a lack of moisture in key growing regions; Soybeans closed about
0.5% lower at $9.6925 per bushel; wheat finished about 2.4% higher at $5.1400 per bushel, and
corn finished the day about 0.4% lower at $3.7900 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded higher on Monday as investors eyed weakness in the dollar and oil prices
ahead of Wednesday's key Fed meeting. The U.S. dollar index fell nearly 1% on Monday to trade
below 100. The index gained nearly 3% in the last week as the euro dipped to 12-year lows
below $1.05. The Dow Jones industrial average briefly gained more than 200 points as all the
major indices advanced to trade in the black for the year.
The Federal Open Market Committee holds its March meeting over the next two days, with the
release of its statement on Wednesday. Investors are watching to see if the key word "patient"
remains in the statement, an indication of when short-term interest rates might go up. Before the
bell, the Empire State Index posted 6.90 for March, below February's 7.78. Industrial production
rose 0.1% in February, below expectations, with capacity utilization slightly lower at 78.9%.The
Dow Jones industrial average traded up 180 points, or 1.02%, at 17,929.
The S&P 500 traded up 20 points, or 1.00%, at 2,073, with utilities leading nine sectors higher
and materials the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq traded up 41 points, or 0.84%, at 4,912. Gold is
trading about 0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen
trading about 0.8% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Friday, there were 270 contracts traded,
13

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com
down from 610 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest the number of contracts
outstanding on Friday decreased by 1 contract to 8,978.

Global Rice Quotes

March 16th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 400-410

Vietnam 5% broken

365-375

India 5% broken

390-400

Pakistan 5% broken

345-355

Myanmar 5% broken

415-425

Cambodia 5% broken

425-435

U.S. 4% broken

480-490

Uruguay 5% broken

580-590

Argentina 5% broken

570-580

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken

370-380

Vietnam 25% broken

340-350

Pakistan 25% broken

310-320

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420

India 25% broken

360-370

U.S. 15% broken

470-480

Long grain parboiled rice

14

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd

385-395

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 380-390

U.S. parboiled 4% broken

555-565

Brazil parboiled 5% broken

570-580

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

385-395

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%
Vietnam Jasmine

895-905
455-465

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

Pakistan basmati 2% broken

NQ

Cambodia Phka Mails 790-800

Brokens
320-330

Vietnam 100% broken 305-315

Thailand A1 Super

Pakistan 100% broken stxd

Cambodia A1 Super

280-290

345-355

India 100% broken stxd

275-285

Egypt medium grain brokens

NQ

U.S. pet food

380-390

Brazil half grain

NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

15

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

www.ricepluss.com

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Dragged Lower along with
Corn and Beans by Falling Crude; Wheat
Rallies as Traders Turn Attention to Lack of
Moisture
Mar 16, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 5.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at
$10.525 per cwt (about $232 per ton). The other grains closed lower except for wheat which
rallied as concerns grow over a lack of moisture in key growing regions; Soybeans closed about
0.5% lower at $9.6925 per bushel; wheat finished about 2.4% higher at $5.1400 per bushel, and
corn finished the day about 0.4% lower at $3.7900 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded higher on
Monday as investors eyed weakness in the dollar and oil prices ahead of Wednesday's key Fed
meeting. The U.S. dollar index fell nearly 1% on Monday to trade below 100.
The index gained nearly 3% in the last week as the euro dipped to 12-year lows below $1.05.
The Dow Jones industrial average briefly gained more than 200 points as all the major indices
advanced to trade in the black for the year. The Federal Open Market Committee holds its March
meeting over the next two days, with the release of its statement on Wednesday. Investors are
watching to see if the key word "patient" remains in the statement, an indication of when shortterm interest rates might go up. Before the bell, the Empire State Index posted 6.90 for March,
below February's 7.78. Industrial production rose 0.1% in February, below expectations, with
capacity utilization slightly lower at 78.9%.
The Dow Jones industrial average traded up 180 points, or 1.02%, at 17,929. The S&P 500
traded up 20 points, or 1.00%, at 2,073, with utilities leading nine sectors higher and materials
the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq traded up 41 points, or 0.84%, at 4,912. Gold is trading about
0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about
0.8% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Friday, there were 270 contracts traded, down from
610 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest the number of contracts outstanding on
Friday decreased by 1 contract to 8,978.

16