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Journal of Advanced
Research
in Engineering RESEARCH
and Technology IN
(IJARET),
ISSN 0976
INTERNATIONAL
JOURNAL
OF ADVANCED
ENGINEERING
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
IJARET
IAEME
ABSTRACT
The construction industry is widely associated with a high risk and uncertainty due to the
nature of its operating environment. This study aims to identify and evaluate key risk factors and
their frequency and severity and then their impact in different types of construction projects in Iraq.
A questionnaire survey was conducted and a total of sixty five critical factors were identified and
categorized into eight groups. These are: 1. Financial related risk, 2. Legal related risk, 3.
Management risk, 4. Market related risk, 5. Political and security related risk, 6. Technical related
risk, 7. Environmental related risk, and 8. Social related risk. Seventy five respondents participated
in the survey representing 22 clients, 21 consultants and 32 contractors. The results are presented on
the basis of their frequency, severity and importance. The study revealed that the most ten important
factors are: Security measures, loss incurred due to corruption and bribery, loss due to bureaucracy
for late approvals, un-official holidays, loss incurred due to political changes, increase of materials
price, unfairness in tendering, improper project planning and budgeting, design changes and increase
of labor costs. Finally the study suggested that what are the importance of risk function and project
risk management for project success.
Key words: Risk Factors, Project Risk Management, Construction Projects, Iraq
1. INTRODUCTION
Construction companies in general and Iraq in specific, normally face difficult kinds of risks
during the implementation phase of the project. However, most of these companies do not predict
risk when they are considering bids and tenders. Construction risk is generally perceived as events
that influence project objectives, i.e. cost, time and quality. Some of the risks associated with the
construction process are fairly predictable or readily identifiable; others may be totally unpredictable
(Al-Bahar, 1990). In project management terms, the most serious effects of risk can be summarized
as follows:
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
procedures and capability areas in the field of project management. The following is some of the
research papers and studies published in the two decades.
Based on their study Bing et al. (1999) categorized the risk factors and their mitigating
measures, the most effective risk mitigating measures were categorized into eight groups. Those are
partner selection, agreement, employment, control, subcontracting, engineering contract, good
relationship, and renegotiation. They proposed a risk management model incorporating measures.
Three cases of international construction Joint Ventures were analyzed from the perspectives of the
execution of these measures.
Mulholland and Christian (1999) presented a model in a systematic way to consider and
quantify uncertainty in construction schedules. The study focused on lessons learned from past
projects and describes a risk assessment process involving typical inputs and expected outputs. The
model incorporates knowledge and experience acquired from many experts, project-specific
information, and decision analysis techniques and a mathematical model to estimate the amount of
risk in a construction schedule at the initiation of a project. The model provides the means for
sensitivity analyses for different outcomes wherein the effect of critical and significant risk factors
can be evaluated.
Shou et al. (2000), based on their survey on risk management of build-operate-transfer
(BOT) projects in developing countries, with emphasis on infrastructure projects in China, discussed
specifically the criticality of the political and force majeure risks. Based on the survey, critical risks,
in descending order of criticality, were identified: Chinese Parties reliability and creditworthiness,
change in law, force majeure, delay in approval, expropriation, and corruption. The measures for
mitigating each of these risks are also discussed.
Hastak and Shaked (2000), in their study classified all risks specific to whole construction
scenario into three broad levels, i.e. country, market and project levels. Macroeconomic stability is
partly linked to the stance of fiscal and monetary policy, and to a countrys vulnerability to economic
shocks. Construction market level risks, for foreign firm, include technological advantage over local
competitors, availability of construction resources, complexity of regulatory processes, and attitude
of local and foreign governments towards the construction industry while project level risks are
specific to construction sites and include logistic constraints, improper design, site safety, improper
quality control and environmental protection, etc.
Aleshin (2001), studied the problem of risk management of international and joint venture
projects with foreign co-operation in Russia. The author identified classified and assessed risks
inherent to joint venture projects in Russia and practical recommendation for risk management.
Kartam and Kartam (2001), based on a questionnaire survey found that contractors show
more willingness to accept risks that are contractual and legal related rather than other types of risks.
Their research also indicated that the application of formal risk analysis techniques is limited in the
Kuwaiti construction industry.
Ahmed and Wood (2010) identified the financial risk factors associated with international
construction ventures from an integrated perspective. They examined the most effective mitigation
measures adopted by construction professionals in managing these risks for their construction
projects and suggest other means of risk aversion.
Zayed (2002), established risk prototype evaluation model that provides a logical, reliable,
and consistent procedure for assessing the project risk. The proposed model introduced the risk index
which relied on the actual performance of eight main risk areas.
Wang and Chou (2003), identified the importance of risk factors by data collected in a postal
questionnaire survey conducted to the building contractors in Hong Kong. Out of 60 factors
identified the availability of required cash, uncertainty in costs estimates, urgent need for work, past
experience in similar projects and contract size are considered most important. The findings
suggested that in the upward adjustment of tender prices, the large-size contractors are more
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
concerned with the uncertainty in costs estimates while the medium- and small-size contractors care
more about no past experience.
Lyons and Skitmore (2004) conducted a survey of senior management involved in the
Queensland engineering construction industry, concerning the usage of risk management techniques.
Their survey results are compared with four earlier surveys conducted around the world which
indicates that: the use of risk management is moderate to high, with very little differences between
the types, sizes and risk tolerance of the organizations, and experience and risk tolerance of the
individual respondents; risk management usage in the execution and planning stages of the project
life cycle is higher than in the conceptual or termination phases; risk identification and risk
assessment are the most often used risk management elements ahead of risk response and risk
documentation; brainstorming is the most common risk identification technique used; qualitative
methods of risk assessment are used most frequently; risk reduction is the most frequently used risk
response method, with the use of contingencies and contractual transfer preferred over insurance;
and project teams are the most frequent group used for risk analysis, ahead of in-house specialists
and consultants.
Li Bing et.al (2005) conducted a questionnaire survey to explore preferences in risk
allocation in United Kingdom. Analysis of the response data shows that some risks should still be
retained within the public sector or shared with the private sector. These are mainly macro and micro
level risks. The majority of risks in PPP/PFI projects, especially those in the macro level risk group,
should be allocated to the private sector.
El-Diraby and Gill S.M (2006) developed taxonomy for relevant concepts in the domain of
privatized-infrastructure finance. The taxonomy is an attempt to create information interoperability
between the construction and financial industries. The taxonomy models the concepts of privatizedinfrastructure finance into six main domains: processes, products, projects, actors, resources and
technical topics (technical details and basic concepts). The taxonomy was designed to be consistent
with Open Financial Exchange (OFX). It was developed through the analysis of 10 case studies and
involvement in project development and interaction with industry experts. The taxonomy was
validated through interviews with domain experts, and through the analysis of two independent case
studies. A prototypical semantic web-based portal for communicating project risks was developed to
in order to illustrate the use of the taxonomy.
6. METHODOLOGY OF THE RESEARCH
The methodology adopted in this research is given below:
Study the literature related to risk analysis and risk management capabilities.
Preparation of questionnaire
Site visits to major construction project sites.
Questionnaire survey and personal interviews with in-charge and managers.
Remedial measures to be suggested
Conclusions, recommendations and suggestions for further studies.
6.1 Method of surveying
The general methodology of this study relies largely on the survey questionnaire which will
be collected from the local construction contractors of different sizes by mail or by personnel
meetings. A thoroughly literature review was conducted to identify the risk factors that affect the
performance of construction industry as a whole. The survey is mainly based on this literature review
and on some interviews with project managers and senior engineers. This was carried out in order to
produce and check the effectiveness of questionnaire.
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
in a systematic, fast and reliable way. For this purpose, the computer software Statistical Package for
Social Science (SPSS 16) and MS Excel were selected.
The data collected from the survey were analyzed using the frequency and severity index
method (Assaf and Al-Hejji, 2006). Details of both frequency and severity index analysis are
explained below.
According to Assaf and Al-Hejji (2006), a formula as shown in equation (1) was used to rank
risk factors based on frequency of occurrence as identified by the participants, which is called the
Frequency Index (F.I).
a (n/N)
Frequency Index (F.I) (%) =
X 100100
(1)
5
Where (a) is the constant expressing weighting given to each response (ranges from 1 for
very small up to 5 for very high occurrence), n is the frequency of the responses, and N is the total
number of responses.
Similarly, a formula as shown in equation (2) used to rank risk factors based on severity
index as indicated by the participants, which is called Severity Index (S.I).
a (n/N)
Severity Index (S.I) (%) =
x100100
(2)
Where (a) is the constant expressing weighting given to each response (range from 1 for very low to
5 for very high effect), n is the frequency of the response, and N is the total number of responses.
Importance Index: The importance index of each risk factor is calculated as a function of both
frequency and severity indices, as follows:
F.I (%) x S.I (%)
Importance Index (I.I) (%) =
(3)
100
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
Frequency
Cumulative %
22
21
32
29.33
28.00
42.67
29.33
57.33
100
Type of project
Housing
General buildings
Infrastructure
Industrial
Others
10
31
22
7
5
13.33
41.33
29.33
9.33
6.67
13.30
54.00
83.99
93.33
100
Working experience
0 5 years
6 10 years
11 15 years
16 20 years
More than 20 years
8
15
29
14
9
10.67
20.00
38.67
18.67
12.00
10.67
30.67
69.34
88.00
100
Probability of risk
occurrence
Degree of
impact on risk
F.I
73.42
66.82
59.63
60.36
64.78
Rank
1
2
6
5
3
S.I
74.15
67.65
58.66
61.74
65.34
Rank
1
2
7
6
3
I.I
54.44
45.20
34.98
37.27
42.33
Rank
1
2
7
5
3
60.73
62.36
37.87
59.35
60.78
36.07
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
Probability of risk
occurrence
Degree of
impact on risk
Total risk
effect
F.I
60.12
54.52
Rank
1
3
S.I
58.67
53.11
Rank
1
4
I.I
35.27
28.96
Rank
1
3
55.25
57.67
31.86
50.15
52.36
26.26
51.39
53.76
27.63
Probability
of risk
occurrence
F.I
Rank
64.26
13
62.39
14
70.29
6
73.92
3
72.79
4
76.88
1
69.63
7
63.78
Degree of
impact on risk
Total risk
effect
S.I
65.65
64.76
71.75
75.63
73.35
77.63
70.74
Rank
11
13
6
2
5
1
7
I.I
42.19
40.40
50.43
55.91
53.39
59.68
49.26
Rank
12
14
6
2
4
1
7
64.63
14
41.22
13
65.93
66.63
10
43.93
66.72
72.12
75.88
65.72
8
5
2
10
65.36
73.79
73.66
67.35
12
3
4
8
43.61
53.22
55.89
44.26
10
5
3
8
64.25
11
66.72
42.87
11
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
Probability of risk
occurrence
F.I
68.22
58.66
63.74
78.26
80.05
63.13
78.11
Rank
4
7
5
2
1
6
3
Degree of
impact on risk
S.I
70.82
55.67
64.25
75.76
79.94
65.28
80.52
Rank
4
7
6
3
2
5
1
Rank
4
7
6
3
1
5
2
Type of risk
Cost increase due to changes of Government
policies
Loss incurred due to corruption and
bribery
Loss incurred due to political changes
Loss due to bureaucracy for late approvals
Security measures
Probability
of risk
occurrence
Degree of
impact on risk
Total risk
effect
F.I
Rank
S.I
Rank
I.I
Rank
72.15
73.56
53.07
83.78
85.91
71.98
80.70
81.11
87.65
4
3
1
79.85
82.70
88.92
4
3
1
64.44
67.08
77.94
4
3
1
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
Probability
of risk occurrence
F.I
Rank
65.12
11
78.26
1
71.52
3
68.15
7
Degree of impact
on risk
S.I
Rank
66.63
8
75.98
1
70.65
4
66.21
10
Total risk
effect
I.I
Rank
43.39
10
59.46
1
50.53
4
45.12
8
60.10
16
61.22
18
36.79
18
68.12
59.16
71.55
65.69
63.71
53.11
60.06
63.75
65.25
8
19
2
9
14
21
18
13
10
67.35
58.66
72.63
66.66
64.62
50.17
63.72
65.23
64.63
6
19
2
7
15
21
16
11
14
45.88
34.70
51.97
43.79
41.18
26.66
38.27
41.58
42.17
6
19
2
9
14
21
16
12
11
58.01
20
56.35
20
32.69
20
70.11
68.72
60.13
62.38
63.78
70.75
5
6
16
14
11
4
69.36
66.36
61.82
64.82
64.66
72.36
5
8
17
12
13
3
48.60
45.60
37.17
40.43
41.24
51.19
5
7
17
15
13
3
Probability of risk
occurrence
Degree of impact
on risk
Total risk
effect
F.I
Rank
S.I
Rank
I.I
Rank
71.11
72.77
51.75
66.91
65.82
44.04
65.62
64.11
42.07
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
Probability of risk
occurrence
F.I
80.80
53.15
70.52
Rank
1
3
2
Degree of
impact on risk
S.I
81.47
55.63
71.11
I.I
65.83
29.57
50.15
Rank
1
3
2
Rank
1
3
2
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
No. of factors
Rank Ave
5
7
3
14
3
21
7
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Contracting companies should compute with high accuracy and consider risks by adding a
risk premium to quotation and time estimation.
Contractors should provide all the efforts to prevent financial failure by practicing a tough
cash flow management and minimizing the dependence on bank loans.
Contractors should learn how to share and shift risks by hiring specialized staff or specialized
subcontractors. It is suggested that the contractor enforced to employ specialized Project
Management company specially for the large scale projects.
The contract clauses should be modified and improved to meet the impact of the political
situation in the country.
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International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976
6480(Print), ISSN 0976 6499(Online), Volume 6, Issue 1, January (2015), pp. 35-48 IAEME
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