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Technical analysis is the term associated with stock market and is the most
widely used tool for analyzing and predicting the trend futuristic behavior of a
particulars top price or the market as a whole. It is the process of analyzing the
share price movements and involves the study of market generated data like prices
and volume to determine the future direction of price movements.
Technical analyzing helps in timing the entry or exit from a particular stock. It
holly depends on the historical trends for predicting future price movements based
on study of charts and graphs. It aims at determining the appropriate time to enter or
exit the market with the help of technical indicators and charts.
Although the technical analysis tools can be applied to other markets like
commodities, currencies, bonds etc the present study is restricted to the stock
market or the equity stock.
1
1.2 INDUSTRIAL PROFILE
The role of broking industry in the Indian Capital Market has undergone a
radical change during the last decade. The process of liberalization and
globalization of the economy has a significant impact on the capital market and all its
constituents, especially brokers. Until 1988, stock exchanges your more or less self-
regularity organizations supervised by the ministry of finance under the Securities
Contracts Regulations Act (SCRA). However the stock exchanges were not
discharging their self-regularity role well as a result of which malpractices crept into
trading, adversely affecting investor’s interests. Several comities examined and
made recommendations to reform the organizations of the stock exchange.
Security and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has been set up to ensure that
the stock exchanges discharge their self regulatory role properly. Ever since SEBI
began to monitor brokers, stock broking is emerging as a professional advisory
service, in tune with the requirements of a nature, sophisticated, screen based, ring
less, automated stock exchanges in the country in sharp contrast to the traditional,
closed character as inherited family business.
Until the advent of the national stock exchange the broking industry was
largely confined to a few metros and operated as closed group, insulated from the
rest of the economy and largely unconcerned either about improving its working
practices of about the needs of retail investors.
2
From brokers to financial doctors
This is clearly an attitude issue and its importance obvious to any practitioner
of professional management. However, many brokers need to put more attention to
this critical issue and enshrine it as the mother of all guiding principles in their
organizations.
Risk management
SEBI and stock exchanges are introducing risk management practices such
as margin collection from each client and the like; many brokers are still
accommodative and permit their clients to conduct business without adequate
discipline. This needs to change and the broking community as a whole should work
closely with the regulators and its clients to ensure overall lowering of risks in the
system.
Risk profiling
3
Portfolio management:
Though this idea is not new for the Indian markets, its likely to emerge now as
an important and significant business opportunities for savings, which continue to
grow at a healthy 12% annum, but are still largely invested in bank deposits.
This makes the case stronger for working smarter and being able to offer
newer products and services beyond the current skill set of the majority of the
competitors and having global knowledge and information.
The broking industry also faces the challenge of providing value addition to
customers on an on going basis. Only those with ability to provide the right financial
solution to the clients at the right time will emerge stronger and better respected in a
society as financial doctors instead of continuing as a mere brokers !
4
Benefits to all Participants
SEBI has played a proactive role in the successful transiting from paper
based mode to electronic mode by making it mandatory to settle trades in certain
securities only in demit mode.
Once the securities are dematerialized it is not possible for the depositories to
stop transitions in respect of these securities even if other issuers fail to pay the fees
to the depositories. Depositories will have no power to deactivate ISINs which
incase goes against the interest of the investors, as often happens in the case of
suspension of trading by stock exchange for non payment of listing fees.
5
1.3 A PROFILE OF KARVY STOCK BROKING LTD.
The birth of Karvy was on a modest scale in 1981. It began with the vision
and enterprise of a small group of practicing Chartered Accountants who founded
the flagship company. Karvy Consultants Limited. We started with consulting and
financial accounting automation, and carved inroads into the field of registry and
share accounting by 1985. Since then, we have utilized our experience and
superlative expertise to go from strength to strength…to better our services, to
provide new ones, to innovate, diversify and in the process, evolved Karvy as one of
India’s premier integrated financial service enterprise.
Thus over the last 20 years Karvy has traveled the success route, towards
building a reputation as an integrated financial services provider, offering a wide
spectrum of services. And we have made this journey by taking the route of quality
service, path breaking innovations in service, versatility in service and finally…
totality in service. Our highly qualified manpower, cutting-edge technology,
comprehensive infrastructure and total customer-focus has secured for us the
position of an emerging financial services giant enjoying the confidence and support
of an enviable clientele across diverse fields in the financial world.
6
Our values and vision of attaining total competence in our servicing has
served as the building block for creating a great financial enterprise, which stands
solid on our fortresses of financial strength - our various companies.
And today, we can look with pride at the fruits of our mastery and experience
– comprehensive financial services that are competently segregated to service and
manage a diverse range of customer requirements.
Achievements
Karvy Alliance
7
is world's largest -- and only global -- share registry, and a leading financial market
services provider to the global securities industry.
The joint venture with Computer share, reckoned as the largest registrar in
the world, servicing over 60 million shareholder accounts for over 7,000 corporations
across eleven countries spread across five continents. Computer share manages
more than 70 million shareholder accounts for over 13,000 corporations around the
world.
Karvy Computer share Private Limited, today, is India's largest Registrar and
Share Transfer Agent servicing over 300 corporates and mutual funds and 16 million
investors.
Quality Policy
To achieve and retain leadership, Karvy shall aim for complete customer
satisfaction, by combining its human and technological resources, to provide
superior quality financial services. In the process, Karvy will strive to
exceed Customer's expectations.
Quality Objectives
8
Use state-of-the art information technology in developing new and
innovative financial products and services to meet the changing needs
of investors and clients.
Strive to be a reliable source of value-added financial products and
services and constantly guide the individuals and institutions in making
a judicious choice of same.
Strive to keep all stake-holders(shareholders, clients, investors,
employees, suppliers and regulatory authorities) proud and satisfied.
Parthasarathy C
Yugandhar M.
Ramakrishna M.S.
Prasad V Potluri
Parthasarathy C
Yugandhar M.
Ramakrishna M.S.
Parthasarathy C
Yugandhar M.
Ramakrishna M.S.
Parthasarathy C
Yugandhar M.
9
Ramakrishna M.S.
G. Gopalakrishnamacharyulu
V. Ganesh
V.Mahesh
K Sridhar
S Gopichand
To analyze the bullish and bearish trend of shares using the Japanese
candle stick.
10
1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
11
Technical analysis is the most widely used tool for analyzing and predicting
the trend of the stock market. This approach is the oldest approach to equity
investment. Technical analysis helps to study the behaviour of the price of the stock
to determine the future prices of the stock. Hence the study conducted at KARVY
STOCK BROKING Ltd.. is made to analyze the price fluctuation in the stock market.
For this purpose four major sectors viz IT, Pharmaceuticals, Oil and gas and
Banking sector. The blue chip three companies are considered from among these
sectors for the study purpose.
12
Only 6 months samples were taken for analysis. In case data spanning more than
this analysis may show yet another result.
Indepth and broad study and analysis of all the major and minor companies in each
of the selected sector were not possible with limited time of 45 days.
This analysis is based on the assumption that history repeats itself it may not be true
under the influence of some fundamental factors like economic, industrial and
companies factors.
13
CHAPTER:2-RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
2.1Research design
Research design is the frame work or plan or blue print based on which the
researcher is collecting data, analyzing data and providing solution to the problem.
This research study is based on exploratory research design. The exploratory
research design does not deal with providing solution to the problem. It is only fact
finding approach.
The data needed for the research work is collected from various sources like;
websites, magazines, journals etc.
2.3Sampling
For the purpose of study the 6 months (1st January to 21st July 2006) stock
price of various companies are collected.
14
2.4Statistical Technique
In order to find out the solution for the research problems, various statistical
tools are taken. They are
Moving average
Run Test
Candlestick
Up trend line
15
2.5THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The share price movements are analyzed broadly with two approaches
namely, fundamental approach and technical approach. Fundamental approach
analysis the share prices on the basis of economy, industry and company statistics.
If the price of the share is lower than its intrinsic value investors buys it. But, if the
price is higher than the intrinsic value he sells and gets profits. The technical analyst
mainly studies the stock price movements of the security market. If there is an
upward trend in the price movements investors may purchase the slip with the onset
of fall in price. He may sell it and move from the strip. Basically, technical analyst
and the fundamental analyst aim at good return on investment.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The technical analyst belief that share prices are determined the demand and
supply forces operating in the market. These demand and supply forces in turn are
influenced by a number of fundamental factors as well as certain psychological or
imotional factors. Many of these factors cannot be quantified. The combined impact
of all factors is reflected in the share price movement. The technical analyst there
fore concentrate on this movement of share prices. He claims that by examing past
share price movement future share price can be accurately predicted
The rational behind technical analysis is that share price behaviour repeats
itself over time and the analyst’s attempts to derive methods to predict this repetition.
The technical analyst looks at the past share price data to establish any of pattern.
He then looks at current price data to see any of the established patterns are
applicable and, if so, extra – potation can be made to predict the future price
movement.
16
ASSUMPTIONS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (BASIC PRINCIPLES)
3) The market always moves in trend except for minor deviation, the stock prices
moves in trends. The price may create definite pattern too, the trend may be
either increasing or decreasing. The trend continues for some time and then
it reverses.
4) Trend in stock prices have been seen to change when there is a shift in the
demand and supply factors.
5) The shift in demand and supply can be detected through charts prepared
specially to show market action.
The Dow theory was formulated by Charls H Dow, who was the editor
of the ‘Valstreet’ journal in USA during 1900-1902.
b) Secondary movements or corrections that may last for few weeks to some
months.
c) Daily fluctuations
17
Primary Trend:
The Primary movements are the long range cycle that carries the entire
market up or down. This is the long term trend in the market. An upward Primary
trend represents a Bull market, where as a downward Primary trends represents a
Bear market. A major upward move is said to occure when the high point of each
rally is higher than the higher point of the proceeding value and the low point of each
decline is higher than the low point of the proceeding decline likewise. A major
downward move is said to occure then the high point of each rally is lower than the
higher point of the preceding decline.
p ric e
d a t e
18
p ric e
D a t e
Secondary Trend:
The secondary trend or intermediate trend moves against the main trends
and leads to correction. In the bull market the secondary trend would result in the
fall 33 – 66 % of the earlier rise. In the bear market the secondary trend carries the
price upward and correct the main trend. The correction would be 33 – 66 % of the
earlier fall. Intermediate trend corrects over bought and over sold condition.
Compared to the time taken for the primary trend, secondary trend is shift and quick.
The following figure shows the secondary movement.
t e
19
D a t e
Minor Trend :
Minor trends are simply the daily price fluctuations. Minor trends tries to
correct the secondary trend movement. It is better for the investors to concentrate
on primary or secondary trends than on the minor trends.
CHARTS
20
Following are the important charts used by technical analyst.
Line Chart:
It is the simplest price chart. In this chart the closing prices of a share are
ploted on the XY graph on a day-to-day basis. The closing price of each day would
be represented by a point on the XY graph.
All these point would be connected by a straight line, which would indicate the
trend of the market. The following chart shows the line chart.
Bar chart:
It is the most popular chart used by technical analysts. In this chart the
highest price the lowest price and the closing price of each day are quoted on a day-
to-day basis by fixing the highest price and lowest price of a particular day by a
vertical line. The top of bar represents the lowest price of the day and a small
horizontal line on the right of the bar is used to represent the closing price of the
day.an example of price bar chart shown in the following figure.
1) On a PFC only significant price changes are recorded. For example, for a
stock that has a price in the range of, say 30-50 Rs. price changes one rupee
or more only may be posted.
2) The vertical scale of PFC represents the price of the stock, the horizontal
scale does not represent the time scale in the usual sense.
21
Japanies Candlestick Chart :
The Japanies candlestick chart shows the highest price, the lowest price, the
opening price and the closing price of shares on a day to day basis. The highest
price and lowest price of a day are joined by a vertical bar. The opening price and
closing price of the day, which would fall below the highest, and the longest price
would be represented by a rectangle. So that the price bar chart look like a
candlestick. Thus each days of activity is represented by a candlestick.
There are mainly three types of candlestick – The white, the black, the dogi or
neutral candlestick. A white candlestick is used to present a situation. Where the
closing price of the day is higher than the opening price. A black candlestick is used
when the closing price of the day is lower than the opening price. Thus white
candlestick indicates a bullish trend and a black candlestick indicates a bearish
trend. A dogi candlestick is the one where the opening price and the closing price of
the day are same. A Japanies candlestick stock is illustrated below.
Trend is the direction of movement of share price in the market. When prices
move upwards, it is a rising trend or up trend. When the prices move down wards it
is a falling trend or down trend. There is a flat trend when the prices move with in a
narrow range.
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The technical analyst tries to identify trend reversal at an early stage so as to
trade profitable in the market. When the trend reverses and begins to raise the
technical analyst would recommend purchase of the share. When the trend begins
to fall, sale is indicated, during a flat trend the investor should stay away from the
market.
Support and resistance are price levels at which the down trend or up trend in price
movements are reversed. Support occurs when price is falling but reverses direction
every time it reaches a particular level. When all these low points are connected by
a horizontal line, it forms the support line. In other words support level is the price
level at which sufficient buying pressure, is exerted to half the fall in prices.
Resistance occurs when the share price moves upwards. The price may bounds
back every time it reaches a particular level. A horizontal line joining these tops
forms the resistance level. Thus resistance level is the price level were sufficient
selling pressure exerted to half the ongoing rise in the price of a share.
Support and resistance usually occurs when the turnover of large number of share
tend to be concentrated at several price level. When the stock touches a certain
level and hen drops, this is called resistance and if the stock reaches down to a
certain level and then rises there exist a support. The following figure shows support
and resistance level.
1 If the script where to break the support level and move downwards, it has
bearish implications signaling the possibility of a further fall in the prices.
23
Cart Pattern
The most popular reversal pattern is the head and shoulder formation, which
usually occurs at the end of a long up trend. This formation exhibits a hump or
top followed by a still higher top or peak and then another hump or lower top.
This formation resembles the head and two shoulders of a man and the name
head and shoulder formation.
The first hump, known as the left shoulder, is formed when the prices reach the
top under a strong buying impulse. Then trading volume becomes less and there
is a short downward swing. This followed by another high volume advance,
which takes the price to a higher top known as the head. This is followed by
another reaction on less volume, which takes the price take to bottom near to the
earlier down swing. A third rally now occurs taking the price to a height less than
the fixed but comparable to the left shoulder.
This rally results in the formation of the right shoulder a horizontal line joining the
bottoms this formation is known as the neckline. As the price penetrates this
neckline the formation of head and shoulder is completed.
The H and S formation usually occurs at the end of bull phase and is indicative of
a reversal trend after breaking the neckline the price is exempted to decline
sharply.
24
Inverse head and shoulder formation
This pattern is the reverse of the H and S formation. This occurs at the end of a
bear phase and consist of three distinct bottoms. The first bottom is the left
shoulder, and then comes a lower bottom, which forms the head followed by the
third bottom, which is termed as the right shoulder. The neckline is drawn by
joining the tops from which the head and right shoulder originate. When the price
raises above the neckline the formation of the pattern is considered to be
completed. The inverse head and shoulder pattern is also a reversal pattern
indicative of an oncoming bullish phase.
2 V Formation
The name it self indicated that the ‘V’ formation there is a long sharp decline and
fast reversal. The V pattern occurs mostly in the popular stocks where the
market interest changes quickly from hope to fear and vice versa. In the case of
inverted ‘^’ the rise occurs first and declines.
In this pattern the investor has to buy after up trend has started and exit before
the tope is reached.
This type of formation signals the end of one trend and the beginning of another.
If the double top formed when a stock price rises to a certain level, falls rapidly,
again rises to same height or more and turns down. Its pattern resembles the
letter ‘M’ the double top may indicate the onset of the bear market.
In a double a bottom, the price of the stock falls to a certain level and increase
with diminishing activity then it falls again to the same or to a lower price and
turns up to a higher level. The double bottom resembles the better ‘W’.
Technical analyst view double bottom as a sign for bull mark
4 Triangles
The triangle formation is easy to identify and popular in technical analysis. The
triangles are of a symmetrical ascending, descending etc.
25
a) Symmetrical triangle :
b) Ascending Triangle
Here up trend line is almost a horizontal trend line connecting the tops and
the lower trends line is a rising trend line connecting the rising bottoms.
Ascending triangle pattern shows the bullish trend. This pattern is generally
spotted during an up move and the probability of the upward move is higher
there.
c) Descending triangle
Here connecting the lower tops from the upper trend line. The upper trend
line would be a falling one. The lower line indicates the support line. The
pattern indicates that the bear operators are more powerful than the bull
operators and shows a bearish trend.
5 Flags
The flag formation looks like a parallelogram with the two trend lines from two
parallel lines.
The volume of trading is expected to fall during formation of the flag and again pick
up on breaking up in the pattern.
26
Technical indicators
1 Volume of trading
Historical data analysis of price and volume movement indicates that in a normal
market, the price rise in accompanies by an expanding volume. Termination of
phase is often accompanied by a selling climax following a decline in prices; a heavy
volume of trade with little price change is indicative of accumulation and is normally
a bullish factor. A strong bull market can exist as long as buying pressure continuous
to be strong. These indications are to be studied carefully before a final decision is
taken on the state of the market, whether a bullish or bearish, the phase of the up
trend or downtrend and look for buy and sell signals at the start of the reversal
trends.
The breadth of the market is the term often used to study the advances and declines
that have occurred in the stock market. Advances mean the number of shares
whose price has increased from the previous days trading. Declines indicate the
number of shares whose price has fallen from the previous days trading. This is
easy to plot and watch indicator because that are available all business dailies. The
net difference between the numbers of advanced and declined during the same
period s the breadth of the market. A cumulative index of net differences measures
the market breadth.
3 Short Sale
Short selling is a technical indicator known as short interest. Short sales refer to the
selling of shares that are not own the bears are the short sellers who sell now in the
hope of purchasing at a lower price in the future to make profit. The short sellers
have to cover out their positions. Short positions of scrips are published in the
business newspapers. Short sales of a particular month is selected and compared
with the average daily volume of the preceding months. Short interest ratio is
defined as follows.
27
Short interest ratio = Total number of shares sold short /
Average daily trading volume
This ratio shows how many days of trading it would like to user. If the ratio is less
than the one, market is said to be weak or over bought and a decline can be
expected. The value between 1 and 0.5 shows natural condition of the market
values above ‘1’ indicate bullish trend and if it is above 2 the market is said to be
oversold at market tops, short selling is high and at market bottom short selling is
low.
Shares are generally sold in a lot of 100 shares, sold in small lots less than 100 are
called odd lot. Such buyers and sellers are called odd loters. Odd lot purchases to
odd lot sales (purchase / sales) are the odd lot index. The increase in odd lot
purchase results in an increase in the index, relatively more selling leads to fall in the
index. It is generally considered that the professional investor is more informed and
stronger than the odd lots. When the professional investors dominate the market,
the stock market is technically strong. Of the odd loters dominate the market, the
market is considered to be technically weak. The notion behind is that odd lot
purchase is concentrated at the top of the market cycle and selling at bottom. High
odd lot purchase forecast fall in the market price and low purchase / selling ratio
presumed to occur towards the end of bear market.
Mathematical indicators
5 Moving Average
The market indicates do not rise or fall in straight line. The upward and downward
movements are interpreted by countermoves. The underline trend can be studied by
smoothening of the data. To smooth the data moving average technique is used.
The moving averages are used to study the movement of the market as well as the
individual script price. The moving average indicates the underlining trend in the
scrip. The period of average determines the period of trend that is being identified.
28
For identifying short term trend, 10 days to 30 days moving average is used. In the
case of medium term trend 50 day to 125 day are adopted. 200 days moving
average is used to identify long term.
a) Index and stock price moving average : Individual stock price is compared with
stock market indicates the moving average of stock and the index are plotted in
the same sheet and trends are compared. Of NSE or BSE index is above stock
moving average line, the particular stock has bullish trend. The price may
increase above the market average. If the SENSEX or NIFTY is below the
stock moving average, the bearish market can be expected for the particular
stock.
If the moving average of the stock penetrates the stock market index from
above, it generalize sell signal, unfavourable market condition prevails for the
particular scrip if the stock line push up through the market average, it is buy signal.
b) Stock price and stock prices moving average: Buy and sell signals are provided
by the moving averages. Moving averages are used along with the price of the
scrip. The stock price may intersect the moving average at a particular point.
Downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further
fall.
5 Oscillators
Oscillators are mathematical indicators calculated with the help of closing price data.
They help to identify over bought and oversold conditions and also the possibility of
trend reversal. These indicators are called oscillators because they move across a
reference point. The two important oscillators are
i) Rate of change indicator: It is very popular oscillator, which measures the rate
of change of the current price as compared to the price of certain number of
days or weeks back. To calculate seven days rate of change each day price
29
is divided by the price, which prevails seven days ago and then one, is
substracted from this price rates.
The ROC values may be positive, negative or zero. The ROC values are
plotted on a xy graph, where the 'x' axis represents the time and the 'y' axis
represents the values of ROC. ROC values oscillate across the zero line
when the ROC line is above the zero line, the price is rising when it is bellow
the zero line, the price is falling. An ROC chart is shown in the following
figure.
ii) Relative strength index: This is a powerful indicator that signals buying and
selling opportunity. RSI for a share calculated by using the following formula.
The most commonly used time period for the calculation of RSI is 14 days. For the
calculation of 14 days RSI, the gain per day or loss per day is arrived by comparing
a closing price of a day with that of the previous day for a period of 14 days. The
gains are added up and divided by 14 to get the average gain per day. Similarly, the
losses are added up and divided by 14 to get the average loss per day.
30
CHAPTER:3-ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
TABLE
SHOWING MOVING AVG FOR INFOSYS
31
MOVING AVERAGE FOR INFOSYS
3500
3300 Clo se
3100 b Avg
2900
2700
E
C
I 2500
a
R 2300
P
2100
1900
1700
1500
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/
1
/ 8
/ 5 2 9 6
/ 3 0
6 6 /1 /2 /2 7 /1 /2
6 6 6 7 7
DATE
INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge for infosys shows that it has buy signal at a point a and a
sell signal at point b.
32
RUN TEST OF INFOSYS
33
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=20
n1=19
n2=19
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)
X=(2*19*19)/(19+19)+1
X=20
2 =[2∗19∗19(2∗19∗19−19−19)]/(19+19)2 (19+19−1)
σ
σ =√34.94043
σ =5.9110
Z=(20-20)/5.9110
Z=0
INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is 0 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.
34
TABLE SHOWING HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR INFOSYS
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 2949 2965 2805.1 2829.85 27-Jun-06 2905 2980 2842.1 2967.45
2-Jun-06 2850 2900 2810 2886 28-Jun-06 2931.25 2994 2880 2974.5
5-Jun-06 2918 2924 2810.25 2824.25 29-Jun-06 2994 3020 2985.25 2993.65
6-Jun-06 2800 2843.95 2745.55 2765.4 30-Jun-06 3084 3130 3025 3078.95
7-Jun-06 2754 2790 2700 2763.25 3-Jul-06 3085 3160 3062.35 3154.35
8-Jun-06 2785.4 2785.4 2605.35 2703.8 4-Jul-06 3160 3189.7 3135 3149.65
9-Jun-06 2683.15 2825 2683.15 2794.65 5-Jul-06 3180 3204.3 3111.05 3194.1
12-Jun-06 2800 2848 2725 2763.2 6-Jul-06 3146.1 3190 3125 3163.85
13-Jun-06 2747 2750 2620.35 2639.1 7-Jul-06 3190 3240 3092.05 3105
14-Jun-06 2694.7 2719 2450 2485.2 10-Jul-06 3189 3195 3101.1 3188.05
15-Jun-06 2560 2761 2540 2727.05 11-Jul-06 3199 3225 3135 3148.2
16-Jun-06 2761 2913.7 2761 2801.15 12-Jul-06 3300 3400 3205 3385.65
19-Jun-06 2800 2890 2775 2871.2 13-Jul-06 1748 1799 1666 1681.95
20-Jun-06 2858 2870 2801 2844 14-Jul-06 1650 1661.05 1620 1648.75
21-Jun-06 2825 2935 2810 2923.25 17-Jul-06 1641 1645.7 1600 1605.25
22-Jun-06 2994.7 2994.7 2931.05 2951.85 18-Jul-06 1610.35 1645 1605 1629.55
23-Jun-06 2931.05 3010 2890 2991.55 19-Jul-06 1661 1661 1597.1 1604.55
25-Jun-06 2995 3020 2980 2989.65 20-Jul-06 1698.7 1698.7 1633 1647.85
26-Jun-06 2999 2999 2890 2900.2 21-Jul-06 1634.8 1634.8 1580.5 1602.1
35
INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.
36
TABLE SHOWING HEAD
AND SHOULDER FOR
INFOSYS
3050
HEAD
3000
LEFT
2950 SHOULDER
E RIGHT
IC2900
R
P2850 SELL SIGNAL
2800 NECKLINE
2750
DATE
INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.
37
TABLE SHOWING UP TREND OF INFOSYS
38
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.
39
TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR INFOSYS
Date Close
1-Jun-06 2829.85
2-Jun-06 2886
5-Jun-06 2824.25
6-Jun-06 2765.4
7-Jun-06 2763.25
8-Jun-06 2703.8
9-Jun-06 2794.65
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.
40
TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE OF INFOSYS
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 2949 2965 2805.1 2829.85 27-Jun-06 2905 2980 2842.1 2967.45
2-Jun-06 2850 2900 2810 2886 28-Jun-06 2931.25 2994 2880 2974.5
5-Jun-06 2918 2924 2810.25 2824.25 29-Jun-06 2994 3020 2985.25 2993.65
6-Jun-06 2800 2843.95 2745.55 2765.4 30-Jun-06 3084 3130 3025 3078.95
7-Jun-06 2754 2790 2700 2763.25 3-Jul-06 3085 3160 3062.35 3154.35
8-Jun-06 2785.4 2785.4 2605.35 2703.8 4-Jul-06 3160 3189.7 3135 3149.65
9-Jun-06 2683.15 2825 2683.15 2794.65 5-Jul-06 3180 3204.3 3111.05 3194.1
12-Jun-06 2800 2848 2725 2763.2 6-Jul-06 3146.1 3190 3125 3163.85
13-Jun-06 2747 2750 2620.35 2639.1 7-Jul-06 3190 3240 3092.05 3105
14-Jun-06 2694.7 2719 2450 2485.2 10-Jul-06 3189 3195 3101.1 3188.05
15-Jun-06 2560 2761 2540 2727.05 11-Jul-06 3199 3225 3135 3148.2
16-Jun-06 2761 2913.7 2761 2801.15 12-Jul-06 3300 3400 3205 3385.65
19-Jun-06 2800 2890 2775 2871.2 13-Jul-06 1748 1799 1666 1681.95
20-Jun-06 2858 2870 2801 2844 14-Jul-06 1650 1661.05 1620 1648.75
21-Jun-06 2825 2935 2810 2923.25 17-Jul-06 1641 1645.7 1600 1605.25
22-Jun-06 2994.7 2994.7 2931.05 2951.85 18-Jul-06 1610.35 1645 1605 1629.55
23-Jun-06 2931.05 3010 2890 2991.55 19-Jul-06 1661 1661 1597.1 1604.55
25-Jun-06 2995 3020 2980 2989.65 20-Jul-06 1698.7 1698.7 1633 1647.85
26-Jun-06 2999 2999 2890 2900.2 21-Jul-06 1634.8 1634.8 1580.5 1602.1
41
INTERPRIETATION:
The candlestick diagram shows both the black,white and doby candle
stick also . It means that there is fluctuations in the price.
42
MOVING AVG FOR WIPRO
43
INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge for shows that it has buy signal at a point a and a sell
signal at point b.
44
TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR WIPRO
45
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/s
R=No. of runs
R=20
n1=17
n2=21
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
s2=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2)2(n1+n2-1)
X=(2*17*21)/(17+21)+1
X=19.7895
s2=[2*17*21(2*17*21-17-21)]/(17+21)2(17+21-1)
s=Ö9.0339
s=3.0056
Z=(20-197895)/3.0056
Z=0.070
INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is .070 is less than 1.96 the runs are
occurred by chance.
46
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR WIPRO
47
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 452 467 433.1 444.7 27-Jun-06 465 484 454 473.9
2-Jun-06 447.05 474 439.8 469.9 28-Jun-06 468 490 457.3 484.15
5-Jun-06 472.4 479.9 452 457.5 29-Jun-06 484.15 500 482 496.7
6-Jun-06 455 469.55 436.2 445.2 30-Jun-06 500.1 519 500.1 513.35
7-Jun-06 442.4 453.8 434 445.35 3-Jul-06 517.4 517.4 496.6 502.5
8-Jun-06 441 442 413 419.55 4-Jul-06 506 514.6 499 500.65
9-Jun-06 420 440.6 410.05 434.9 5-Jul-06 509.9 509.9 489.55 496.85
12-Jun-06 432.1 437 419.1 422.3 6-Jul-06 494 497.9 485.55 491.1
13-Jun-06 420 420 391 395.3 7-Jul-06 493.5 499.4 465.15 468.85
14-Jun-06 391 421 381.25 389.5 10-Jul-06 471.3 498.4 465 493.85
15-Jun-06 407 424.4 400 420 11-Jul-06 504.95 506 481.1 495.5
16-Jun-06 425 457.4 425 440.5 12-Jul-06 495 517.8 481 516.4
19-Jun-06 435.15 450 420.65 435.85 13-Jul-06 517 519 500 502.6
20-Jun-06 432 434 418.15 421.9 14-Jul-06 498 500 480.95 489.1
21-Jun-06 425.9 444.9 425 438.9 17-Jul-06 487.95 492 475 478.7
22-Jun-06 445 460 445 450.45 18-Jul-06 476 488 471 485.25
23-Jun-06 449.1 485 430.35 469.6 19-Jul-06 491.15 498.7 452 458.35
25-Jun-06 489 489 472 475.35 20-Jul-06 470 478.4 465 469.95
26-Jun-06 480 481 460 463.9 21-Jul-06 465 469.9 444.1 449
48
DATE PRICE
5-Jul-06 496.85
6-Jul-06 491.1
7-Jul-06 468.85
10-Jul-06 493.85
11-Jul-06 495.5
12-Jul-06 516.4
13-Jul-06 502.6
14-Jul-06 489.1
17-Jul-06 478.7
18-Jul-06 485.25
19-Jul-06 458.35
INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.
49
TABLE SHOWING UP TREND OF WIPRO
50
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
52
1-Jun-06 452 467 433.1 444.7 27-Jun-06 465 484 454 473.9
2-Jun-06 447.05 474 439.8 469.9 28-Jun-06 468 490 457.3 484.15
5-Jun-06 472.4 479.9 452 457.5 29-Jun-06 484.15 500 482 496.7
6-Jun-06 455 469.55 436.2 445.2 30-Jun-06 500.1 519 500.1 513.35
7-Jun-06 442.4 453.8 434 445.35 3-Jul-06 517.4 517.4 496.6 502.5
8-Jun-06 441 442 413 419.55 4-Jul-06 506 514.6 499 500.65
9-Jun-06 420 440.6 410.05 434.9 5-Jul-06 509.9 509.9 489.55 496.85
12-Jun-06 432.1 437 419.1 422.3 6-Jul-06 494 497.9 485.55 491.1
13-Jun-06 420 420 391 395.3 7-Jul-06 493.5 499.4 465.15 468.85
14-Jun-06 391 421 381.25 389.5 10-Jul-06 471.3 498.4 465 493.85
15-Jun-06 407 424.4 400 420 11-Jul-06 504.95 506 481.1 495.5
16-Jun-06 425 457.4 425 440.5 12-Jul-06 495 517.8 481 516.4
19-Jun-06 435.15 450 420.65 435.85 13-Jul-06 517 519 500 502.6
20-Jun-06 432 434 418.15 421.9 14-Jul-06 498 500 480.95 489.1
21-Jun-06 425.9 444.9 425 438.9 17-Jul-06 487.95 492 475 478.7
22-Jun-06 445 460 445 450.45 18-Jul-06 476 488 471 485.25
23-Jun-06 449.1 485 430.35 469.6 19-Jul-06 491.15 498.7 452 458.35
25-Jun-06 489 489 472 475.35 20-Jul-06 470 478.4 465 469.95
26-Jun-06 480 481 460 463.9 21-Jul-06 465 469.9 444.1 449
INTERPRIETATION:
The black candlestick means previous closing price is more than todays
open&white means opening price is greater than the previous closing price.
53
TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVEREGE FOR GLAXO
54
INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge for shows that it has buy signal at a point a,c,e and a
sell signal at point b,d.
55
1-Jun-06 1076.55 27-Jun-06 966.1 - 9
2-Jun-06 1121 + 1 28-Jun-06 974.2 +
5-Jun-06 1085.8 - 29-Jun-06 985.2 +
6-Jun-06 1053.25 - 30-Jun-06 1037.3 +
7-Jun-06 1006 - 3-Jul-06 1054.15 + 9
8-Jun-06 972.85 - 2 4-Jul-06 1030 - 10
9-Jun-06 1042.8 + 3 5-Jul-06 1037.6 + 11
12-Jun-06 1038.95 - 6-Jul-06 1018.15 - 12
13-Jun-06 951.8 - 4 7-Jul-06 1026 +
14-Jun-06 958.95 + 10-Jul-06 1049.15 +
15-Jun-06 1038.85 + 5 11-Jul-06 1062.7 + 13
16-Jun-06 998.15 - 12-Jul-06 1046.35 -
19-Jun-06 986.5 - 13-Jul-06 1032.9 -
20-Jun-06 971.95 - 6 14-Jul-06 1009.15 -
21-Jun-06 984.9 + 17-Jul-06 1006.1 -
22-Jun-06 1013.75 + 7 18-Jul-06 1000.85 -
23-Jun-06 1011 - 8 19-Jul-06 980.15 - 14
25-Jun-06 1016.6 + 8 20-Jul-06 995.2 + 15
26-Jun-06 972.35 - 21-Jul-06 983 - 16
56
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=16
n1=16
n2=22
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)
X=(2*16*22)/(16+22)+1
X=19.5263
2
σ 2
=[2*16*22(2*16*22-16-22)]/(16+22) (16+22-1)
σ =√ 8.7756
σ = 2.9624
Z=(16-19.5263)/2.9624
Z=-1.1904
INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is -1.1904 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred
by chance.
57
INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on the
trading day.
58
TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR GLAXO
INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.
59
Date Price Date Price Date Price
9-Dec-05 1128.05 30-Dec-05 1121.75 23-Jan-06 1191.85
12-Dec-05 1120.25 2-Jan-06 1111.6 24-Jan-06 1234.35
13-Dec-05 1121.2 3-Jan-06 1180.8 25-Jan-06 1220.6
14-Dec-05 1121.1 4-Jan-06 1211.85 27-Jan-06 1275.1
15-Dec-05 1080.8 5-Jan-06 1231.9 30-Jan-06 1279.45
16-Dec-05 1098.9 6-Jan-06 1221.55 31-Jan-06 1282.8
19-Dec-05 1115.95 9-Jan-06 1231.05 1-Feb-06 1260.7
20-Dec-05 1105.5 10-Jan-06 1215.95 2-Feb-06 1273.8
21-Dec-05 1099.15 12-Jan-06 1201.35 3-Feb-06 1332.15
22-Dec-05 1111.5 13-Jan-06 1202.3 6-Feb-06 1390.75
23-Dec-05 1081.35 16-Jan-06 1211.35 7-Feb-06 1363.85
26-Dec-05 1060.8 17-Jan-06 1210.75 8-Feb-06 1351.75
27-Dec-05 1089.2 18-Jan-06 1214.45 10-Feb-06 1383.85
28-Dec-05 1100.75 19-Jan-06 1220.75 13-Feb-06 1380.7
29-Dec-05 1098.8 20-Jan-06 1206 14-Feb-06 1358
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.
60
Date Price Date Price Date Price
2-May-06 1392.75 22-May-06 1031.85 9-Jun-06 1042.8
3-May-06 1412.3 23-May-06 1107.75 12-Jun-06 1038.95
4-May-06 1420.95 24-May-06 1177.7 13-Jun-06 951.8
5-May-06 1430.95 25-May-06 1157.2 14-Jun-06 958.95
8-May-06 1471.75 26-May-06 1160.5 15-Jun-06 1038.85
9-May-06 1468.15 29-May-06 1157.8 16-Jun-06 998.15
10-May-06 1450.4 30-May-06 1151.25 19-Jun-06 986.5
11-May-06 1418.7 31-May-06 1130 20-Jun-06 971.95
12-May-06 1413.25 1-Jun-06 1076.55 21-Jun-06 984.9
15-May-06 1307.5 2-Jun-06 1121 22-Jun-06 1013.75
16-May-06 1279.9 5-Jun-06 1085.8 23-Jun-06 1011
17-May-06 1315.5 6-Jun-06 1053.25 25-Jun-06 1016.6
18-May-06 1205.6 7-Jun-06 1006 26-Jun-06 972.35
19-May-06 1102.75 8-Jun-06 972.85 27-Jun-06 966.1
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.
61
TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR GLAXO
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jan-06 1179 1179 1050 1076.55 27-Jun-06 971 980 936.2 966.1
2-Jun-06 1050 1134.65 1036.1 1121 28-Jun-06 966.1 984 948 974.2
5-Jun-06 1166 1166 1075 1085.8 29-Jun-06 988.9 1015 971.25 985.2
6-Jun-06 1040 1080 1037 1053.25 30-Jun-06 1013.9 1050 1009 1037.3
7-Jun-06 1049.9 1054.75 995 1006 3-Jul-06 1037.3 1063.9 1018 1054.15
8-Jun-06 999 1005 921 972.85 4-Jul-06 1047.1 1057.8 1025 1030
9-Jun-06 990 1064 945.05 1042.8 5-Jul-06 1036 1044 1022 1037.6
12-Jun-06 1045 1074 975 1038.95 6-Jul-06 1035 1035 1012 1018.15
13-Jun-06 976 996.95 935 951.8 7-Jul-06 1025 1049 1019 1026
14-Jun-06 977 995 940 958.95 10-Jul-06 1003.75 1054 1003.75 1049.15
15-Jun-06 966 1065 958 1038.85 11-Jul-06 1059.7 1071.8 1028 1062.7
16-Jun-06 1065 1095 901 998.15 12-Jul-06 1060.9 1060.9 1031.2 1046.35
19-Jun-06 1087 1087 961.15 986.5 13-Jul-06 1030.1 1060 1028 1032.9
20-Jun-06 999 999 956.1 971.95 14-Jul-06 1038 1038 1000 1009.15
21-Jun-06 970 999.8 970 984.9 17-Jul-06 1001.1 1028.85 982.15 1006.1
22-Jun-06 1011.25 1034 1005 1013.75 18-Jul-06 1005 1034.9 991.2 1000.85
23-Jun-06 1000 1020 962 1011 19-Jul-06 1011.1 1019 978.25 980.15
25-Jun-06 998 1025 998 1016.6 20-Jul-06 1000 1009 985.2 995.2
26-Jun-06 1016.6 1030 962 972.35 21-Jul-06 1000 1000 978 983
62
INTERPRIETATION:
The candlestick for shows a white and black candle stick . It means
the opening price and the closing price of the stock is fluctuating.
63
TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVERGE FOR RANBAXY
64
INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge shows the buy signal at point a and a sell signal at point
b.
65
TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR RANBAXY
66
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=16
n1=18
n2=20
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)
X=(2*18*20)/(18+20)+1
X=19.94736842
2
σ 2
=[2*18*20(2*18*20-18-20)]/(18+20) (18+20-1)
σ =√9.190686531
σ = 3.031614509
Z=(16-19.95)/3.032
Z=-1.3028
INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is -1.30 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.
67
Date High Low Close Date High Low Close
1-Jun-06 420 399 403.45 27-Jun-06 374.95 358.5 361.1
2-Jun-06 429.9 396.15 425.65 28-Jun-06 365.5 348.1 351.5
5-Jun-06 432 408 411.2 29-Jun-06 362.6 354.25 359.5
6-Jun-06 402.5 384.55 388.05 30-Jun-06 369 353.25 356.35
7-Jun-06 392.95 348.5 365.85 3-Jul-06 362 355.7 357.6
8-Jun-06 361.8 340 343.1 4-Jul-06 360.5 348.55 349.35
9-Jun-06 371.7 340.15 364.15 5-Jul-06 359.95 342.35 356.35
12-Jun-06 386.3 357.3 360.4 6-Jul-06 360.5 351.1 354.4
13-Jun-06 361.6 352.25 356.3 7-Jul-06 357 345.1 346.85
14-Jun-06 366.9 343 348.85 10-Jul-06 353.8 345 349.45
15-Jun-06 364.4 352.1 361.9 11-Jul-06 353.8 347.1 350.15
16-Jun-06 381 365 369.8 12-Jul-06 351 343.3 347.1
19-Jun-06 375 355.1 371.15 13-Jul-06 355.65 342 343.9
20-Jun-06 382 365.05 373.45 14-Jul-06 343 334 335.3
21-Jun-06 380.5 370 375.2 17-Jul-06 339.7 317 320.25
22-Jun-06 386.4 360 370.9 18-Jul-06 330 318 324.2
23-Jun-06 389 366.1 385.55 19-Jul-06 330 323.05 325.95
25-Jun-06 395.35 385.55 391.15 20-Jul-06 354 329.25 349.5
26-Jun-06 396.95 364.1 371.25 21-Jul-06 355.9 346.3 353.75
68
INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.
69
Date Close Date Close
1-Jun-06 403.45 27-Jun-06 361.1
2-Jun-06 425.65 28-Jun-06 351.5
5-Jun-06 411.2 29-Jun-06 359.5
6-Jun-06 388.05 30-Jun-06 356.35
7-Jun-06 365.85 3-Jul-06 357.6
8-Jun-06 343.1 4-Jul-06 349.35
9-Jun-06 364.15 5-Jul-06 356.35
12-Jun-06 360.4 6-Jul-06 354.4
13-Jun-06 356.3 7-Jul-06 346.85
14-Jun-06 348.85 10-Jul-06 349.45
15-Jun-06 361.9 11-Jul-06 350.15
16-Jun-06 369.8 12-Jul-06 347.1
19-Jun-06 371.15 13-Jul-06 343.9
20-Jun-06 373.45 14-Jul-06 335.3
21-Jun-06 375.2 17-Jul-06 320.25
22-Jun-06 370.9 18-Jul-06 324.2
23-Jun-06 385.55 19-Jul-06 325.95
25-Jun-06 391.15 20-Jul-06 349.5
26-Jun-06 371.25 21-Jul-06 353.75
70
INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.
71
TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR RANBAXY
Date Price
25-Apr-06 481.15
26-Apr-06 477.1
27-Apr-06 470.05
28-Apr-06 471.85
29-Apr-06 472.5
2-May-06 521.8
3-May-06 513.25
4-May-06 508.8
5-May-06 511.45
8-May-06 505.95
9-May-06 505.3
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.
72
TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR RANBAXY
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.
73
TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICEFOR RANBAXY
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 420 420 399 403.45 27-Jun-06 365 374.95 358.5 361.1
2-Jun-06 400 429.9 396.15 425.65 28-Jun-06 358 365.5 348.1 351.5
5-Jun-06 429 432 408 411.2 29-Jun-06 354.25 362.6 354.25 359.5
6-Jun-06 400 402.5 384.55 388.05 30-Jun-06 365 369 353.25 356.35
7-Jun-06 390 392.95 348.5 365.85 3-Jul-06 357 362 355.7 357.6
8-Jun-06 361.1 361.8 340 343.1 4-Jul-06 359 360.5 348.55 349.35
9-Jun-06 360 371.7 340.15 364.15 5-Jul-06 347 359.95 342.35 356.35
12-Jun-06 369.35 386.3 357.3 360.4 6-Jul-06 355.35 360.5 351.1 354.4
13-Jun-06 355 361.6 352.25 356.3 7-Jul-06 356.5 357 345.1 346.85
14-Jun-06 359.45 366.9 343 348.85 10-Jul-06 346 353.8 345 349.45
15-Jun-06 354.9 364.4 352.1 361.9 11-Jul-06 349 353.8 347.1 350.15
16-Jun-06 365 381 365 369.8 12-Jul-06 348.65 351 343.3 347.1
19-Jun-06 371.3 375 355.1 371.15 13-Jul-06 348 355.65 342 343.9
20-Jun-06 370 382 365.05 373.45 14-Jul-06 340 343 334 335.3
21-Jun-06 370 380.5 370 375.2 17-Jul-06 339.7 339.7 317 320.25
22-Jun-06 383 386.4 360 370.9 18-Jul-06 318 330 318 324.2
23-Jun-06 372.9 389 366.1 385.55 19-Jul-06 325.2 330 323.05 325.95
INTERPRETATION:
25-Jun-06 390 395.35 385.55 391.15 20-Jul-06 332 354 329.25 349.5
26-Jun-06 395 396.95 364.1 371.25 21-Jul-06 352 355.9 346.3 353.75
The candlestick for shows a white and black candle stick . It means the
opening price and the closing price of the stock is fluctuating.
74
9-Jun-06 500.35 5-Jul-06 499.9 343.38
12-Jun-06 474.2 6-Jul-06 485.55 391.935
13-Jun-06 459.65 7-Jul-06 498.95 441.83
14-Jun-06 451.2 508.455 10-Jul-06 493 491.13
15-Jun-06 482.55 503.28 11-Jul-06 487.95 490.065
16-Jun-06 506.7 498.755 12-Jul-06 488.3 490.005
19-Jun-06 501 495.045 13-Jul-06 495.75 491.675
20-Jun-06 490.45 489.82 14-Jul-06 485.9 491.475
21-Jun-06 494.4 485.935 17-Jul-06 477.25 490.29
22-Jun-06 512.25 487.275 18-Jul-06 472.6 488.515
23-Jun-06 508.05 488.045 19-Jul-06 467.75 485.3
25-Jun-06 507.2 491.345 20-Jul-06 492.05 485.95
26-Jun-06 490.75 494.455 21-Jul-06 484.75 484.53
75
INTERPRETATION:
The moving average shows the buy signal at point a and sell signal at point b.
76
5-Jun-06 538.1 - 2 29-Jun-06 479.05 - 11
6-Jun-06 542.7 + 3 30-Jun-06 487.9 +
7-Jun-06 533.25 - 3-Jul-06 489.1 +
8-Jun-06 498.85 - 3 4-Jul-06 490.35 +
9-Jun-06 500.35 + 4 5-Jul-06 499.9 + 12
12-Jun-06 474.2 - 6-Jul-06 485.55 - 13
13-Jun-06 459.65 - 7-Jul-06 498.95 + 14
14-Jun-06 451.2 - 5 10-Jul-06 493 -
15-Jun-06 482.55 + 11-Jul-06 487.95 -
16-Jun-06 506.7 + 6 12-Jul-06 488.3 - 15
19-Jun-06 501 - 13-Jul-06 495.75 + 16
20-Jun-06 490.45 - 7 14-Jul-06 485.9 -
21-Jun-06 494.4 + 17-Jul-06 477.25 -
22-Jun-06 512.25 + 8 18-Jul-06 472.6 -
23-Jun-06 508.05 - 19-Jul-06 467.75 - 17
25-Jun-06 507.2 - 20-Jul-06 492.05 + 18
26-Jun-06 490.75 - 9 21-Jul-06 484.75 - 19
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=19
n1=15
n2=23
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)
X=(2*19*19)/(19+19)+1
X=19.16
2
σ 2
=[2*19*19(2*19*19-19-19)]/(19+19) (19+19-1)
σ =√8.4203
σ = 2 . 9 0 18
Z=(19-19.96)/2.9018
Z=-0.0207
77
INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is -0.55 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.
78
06 06
600
550
E High
C
I 500 Low
R
P Close
450
400
DAT E
INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.
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TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR ICICI
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INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.
81
TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR ICICI
82
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.
83
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 542 551 531.15 534.3 25-Jun-06 514 514 505 507.2
2-Jun-06 532 554 530 551.95 26-Jun-06 507 513 486.55 490.75
5-Jun-06 553 557 530 538.1 27-Jun-06 500 505.85 481 498.6
6-Jun-06 532 553.8 511.65 542.7 28-Jun-06 497 506.05 485 488.9
7-Jun-06 524.1 543.7 524 533.25 28-Jun-06 498 498 498 498
7-Jun-06 544 544 544 544 29-Jun-06 493 502 465.7 479.05
8-Jun-06 531.55 531.55 490.25 498.85 30-Jun-06 494.4 505 475 487.9
9-Jun-06 496 511 479 500.35 3-Jul-06 499 518.35 485 489.1
9-Jun-06 485 485 485 485 4-Jul-06 495.4 499 488.05 490.35
12-Jun-06 502 505 465 474.2 5-Jul-06 492 503.7 488 499.9
13-Jun-06 465 465.9 435 459.65 5-Jul-06 498 498 498 498
14-Jun-06 465 480 441.1 451.2 6-Jul-06 494 495 482 485.55
15-Jun-06 464.05 486.65 460.9 482.55 7-Jul-06 491.2 504 477 498.95
16-Jun-06 490 524.9 490 506.7 10-Jul-06 496 498 487 493
19-Jun-06 498 509.7 493 501 11-Jul-06 490.5 495 485 487.95
20-Jun-06 493 494.7 481.1 490.45 12-Jul-06 485 496 464.95 488.3
21-Jun-06 494.7 499.9 488.25 494.4 13-Jul-06 488 498 482.2 495.75
22-Jun-06 499.9 521.5 499.9 512.25 14-Jul-06 482.2 492 472.5 485.9
23-Jun-06 509 509.8 488 508.05 17-Jul-06 500 500 475.2 477.25
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25-Jun-06 514 514 505 507.2 18-Jul-06 477 478 467.45 472.6
26-Jun-06 507 513 486.55 490.75 19-Jul-06 476.1 481.9 465.1 467.75
27-Jun-06 500 505.85 481 498.6 20-Jul-06 477.2 494.9 477.2 492.05
28-Jun-06 497 506.05 485 488.9 20-Jul-06 502 505 502 505
28-Jun-06 498 498 498 498 21-Jul-06 491.4 491.4 478.1 484.75
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INTERPRETATION:
The candlestick for shows a black candle stick . It means the opening
price of the stock is less than the previous closing price.
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1-Jun-06 738.65 27-Jun-06 741.05 74.105
2-Jun-06 765.05 28-Jun-06 726.65 146.77
5-Jun-06 739.4 29-Jun-06 749.35 221.705
6-Jun-06 722.6 30-Jun-06 795.95 301.3
7-Jun-06 720.75 3-Jul-06 778.5 379.15
8-Jun-06 692.65 4-Jul-06 787.25 457.875
9-Jun-06 712.7 5-Jul-06 807.4 538.615
12-Jun-06 692.25 6-Jul-06 800 618.615
13-Jun-06 651.65 7-Jul-06 779.3 696.545
14-Jun-06 638.95 707.465 10-Jul-06 778.6 774.405
15-Jun-06 697.7 703.37 11-Jul-06 761.55 776.455
16-Jun-06 734.5 700.315 12-Jul-06 761.2 779.91
19-Jun-06 736.3 700.005 13-Jul-06 746.35 779.61
20-Jun-06 708.95 698.64 14-Jul-06 729.3 772.945
21-Jun-06 709.05 697.47 17-Jul-06 707.45 765.84
22-Jun-06 730.95 701.3 18-Jul-06 710.25 758.14
23-Jun-06 749.4 704.97 19-Jul-06 697.2 747.12
25-Jun-06 741.45 709.89 20-Jul-06 726.45 739.765
26-Jun-06 761.6 720.885 21-Jul-06 709.85 732.82
INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge for shows that it has buy signal at a point a and a sell
signal at point b.
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TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR HDFC
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=18
n1=15
n2=23
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)
X=(2*15*23)/(15+23)+1
X=19.1579
2
σ 2
=[2*15*23(2*15*23-15-23)]/(15+23) (15+23-1)
σ =√8.4203
σ = 2 .9018
Z=(18-19.1579)/2.9018
Z=-0.3990
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INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is -0.55 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 760 772.5 733 738.65 27-Jun-06 750 759.9 731 741.05
2-Jun-06 740 775 734 765.05 28-Jun-06 775 775 722.05 726.65
5-Jun-06 763 774 730.1 739.4 29-Jun-06 740 761 731.15 749.35
6-Jun-06 735 735 715.25 722.6 30-Jun-06 755.1 814.8 755.1 795.95
7-Jun-06 721.7 729.7 710 720.75 3-Jul-06 800 800 771 778.5
8-Jun-06 711 725 640 692.65 4-Jul-06 780 789.95 780 787.25
9-Jun-06 687 720 661.25 712.7 5-Jul-06 780 816 778.05 807.4
12-Jun-06 717.9 727.85 665.15 692.25 6-Jul-06 800.5 804.95 787 800
13-Jun-06 671 677.85 640 651.65 7-Jul-06 802 809.95 751 779.3
14-Jun-06 648 672.8 615.2 638.95 10-Jul-06 771.1 780 763 778.6
15-Jun-06 644 724.8 644 697.7 11-Jul-06 775.05 775.05 755.05 761.55
16-Jun-06 710 766.5 710 734.5 12-Jul-06 680 772 680 761.2
19-Jun-06 704.5 740.1 704.5 736.3 13-Jul-06 756 765 742.65 746.35
20-Jun-06 720 727 700.25 708.95 14-Jul-06 746 746 715.6 729.3
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21-Jun-06 715 717.1 702 709.05 17-Jul-06 730 730 702.25 707.45
22-Jun-06 744.8 760 725 730.95 18-Jul-06 705 714 701 710.25
23-Jun-06 704.8 750.5 702.6 749.4 19-Jul-06 712 719 692.1 697.2
25-Jun-06 762 762 734.5 741.45 20-Jul-06 711 740 711 726.45
26-Jun-06 725.25 772 725.25 761.6 21-Jul-06 715 727 705 709.85
INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.
90
INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.
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27-Apr-06 824.2 18-May-06 786.95
28-Apr-06 817.35 19-May-06 781.2
INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.
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INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 760 772.5 733 738.65 27-Jun-06 750 759.9 731 741.05
2-Jun-06 740 775 734 765.05 28-Jun-06 775 775 722.05 726.65
5-Jun-06 763 774 730.1 739.4 29-Jun-06 740 761 731.15 749.35
6-Jun-06 735 735 715.25 722.6 30-Jun-06 755.1 814.8 755.1 795.95
7-Jun-06 721.7 729.7 710 720.75 3-Jul-06 800 800 771 778.5
8-Jun-06 711 725 640 692.65 4-Jul-06 780 789.95 780 787.25
9-Jun-06 687 720 661.25 712.7 5-Jul-06 780 816 778.05 807.4
12-Jun-06 717.9 727.85 665.15 692.25 6-Jul-06 800.5 804.95 787 800
13-Jun-06 671 677.85 640 651.65 7-Jul-06 802 809.95 751 779.3
14-Jun-06 648 672.8 615.2 638.95 10-Jul-06 771.1 780 763 778.6
15-Jun-06 644 724.8 644 697.7 11-Jul-06 775.05 775.05 755.05 761.55
16-Jun-06 710 766.5 710 734.5 12-Jul-06 680 772 680 761.2
19-Jun-06 704.5 740.1 704.5 736.3 13-Jul-06 756 765 742.65 746.35
20-Jun-06 720 727 700.25 708.95 14-Jul-06 746 746 715.6 729.3
21-Jun-06 715 717.1 702 709.05 17-Jul-06 730 730 702.25 707.45
22-Jun-06 744.8 760 725 730.95 18-Jul-06 705 714 701 710.25
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23-Jun-06 704.8 750.5 702.6 749.4 19-Jul-06 712 719 692.1 697.2
25-Jun-06 762 762 734.5 741.45 20-Jul-06 711 740 711 726.45
26-Jun-06 725.25 772 725.25 761.6 21-Jul-06 715 727 705 709.85
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INTERPRETATION:
The candlestick for shows a white and black candle stick . It means
the opening price and the closing price of the stock is fluctuating.
CHAPTER:4-FINDINGS& SUGGESTIONS
FINDINGS
The moving average of Infosys from the period 1st june 06 to 20st july
had shown the buy signal at 16th june and sell signal at 13 july.
The run test for the Infosys shows that the runs are occurred by
chance.
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The high low close price for the Infosys is pointed through the high low
close chart.
The sell and buy signal for the Infosys had shown through head and
shoulders.
The up trend line for the Infosys shows an upward trend from 03/01/06
to 04/22/06.
The candle sticks for the Infosys shows both the white, black and doby
candlesticks.
The moving average for Wipro shows buy signal on 06/18/06 and a sell
signal at 06/25/06.
The up trend line for the Wipro shows an upward trend from 04/15/06
to 06/24/06.
A Wipro shows a down ward trend from 05/25/2006 to 06/12/06 for the
study period.
The buy and sell signal for the Glaxo for the study period was shown
the moving average diagram.
A Glaxo shows a down ward trend from 05/03/2006 to 06/07/06 for the
study period.
The moving average of Ranbaxy from the period 1st june 06 to 20st july
had shown the buy signal at 06/05/06 and sell signal at 06/25/06.
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A Ranbaxy shows a down ward trend from 04/29/2006 to 05/31/06 for
the study period.
The moving average of ICICI from the period 1st june 06 to 20st july had
shown the buy signal at 06/13/06 and sell signal at 06/22/06.
The up trend line for the ICICI shows an upward trend from 09/11/06 to
10/06/06.
An ICICI shows a down ward trend from 05/05/06 to 06/16/06 for the
study period.
The moving average for HDFC shows buy signal on 06/17/06 and a
sell signal at 06/29/06.
The up trend line for the HDFC shows an upward trend from 03/22/06
to 05/09/06.
An HDFC shows a down ward trend from 09/13/06 to 10/28/06 for the
study period.
SUGGESTIONS
When the moving average shows a flattening trend and the stock price
line falls through the moving average line the stock brokers or the
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share holders should see that their should be sold off since it shows a
declining trend.
If the up ward trend line is penetrating it better to sell the shares and if
the down ward trend line is penetrating it better to buy the shares.
The breaking of the neckline on a decline from the right shoulder final
confirmation and completes head and shoulders top formation. This is,
there fore, a signal to sell short.
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CONCLUSION
sectors have been analysed hereby using the various tools of technical
analysis. Technical analysis has been very helpful in identifying and getting a
clear picture of the company’s equity price movements. It has also helped in
detecting the shift in demand and supply and as provided clues to future price
CHAPTER:5-BIBILOGRAPHY
PORTFOLIO MANAGENENT :
PANDIAN PUNITHAVATHY
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS “ : ARNOLD MOURTIS,RAHFELDTT DAN
SECURITY ANALYSIS AND
www.nseindia.com
www.damodaran.com
business line
economic lines
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