Você está na página 1de 100

CHAPTER-1:INTRODUCTION

Technical analysis is the term associated with stock market and is the most
widely used tool for analyzing and predicting the trend futuristic behavior of a
particulars top price or the market as a whole. It is the process of analyzing the
share price movements and involves the study of market generated data like prices
and volume to determine the future direction of price movements.

Technical analyzing helps in timing the entry or exit from a particular stock. It
holly depends on the historical trends for predicting future price movements based
on study of charts and graphs. It aims at determining the appropriate time to enter or
exit the market with the help of technical indicators and charts.

Although the technical analysis tools can be applied to other markets like
commodities, currencies, bonds etc the present study is restricted to the stock
market or the equity stock.

Hence, the present study undergone at KARVY STOCK BROCKING


LTD Kannur is made to analyze the direction of share price movements by using
various tools of technical analysis. To attain this objective of the study, four sectors
viz information technology pharmaceutical, oil and gas and banking has been
selected and analyzed.

1
1.2 INDUSTRIAL PROFILE

The role of broking industry in the Indian Capital Market has undergone a
radical change during the last decade. The process of liberalization and
globalization of the economy has a significant impact on the capital market and all its
constituents, especially brokers. Until 1988, stock exchanges your more or less self-
regularity organizations supervised by the ministry of finance under the Securities
Contracts Regulations Act (SCRA). However the stock exchanges were not
discharging their self-regularity role well as a result of which malpractices crept into
trading, adversely affecting investor’s interests. Several comities examined and
made recommendations to reform the organizations of the stock exchange.

Security and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has been set up to ensure that
the stock exchanges discharge their self regulatory role properly. Ever since SEBI
began to monitor brokers, stock broking is emerging as a professional advisory
service, in tune with the requirements of a nature, sophisticated, screen based, ring
less, automated stock exchanges in the country in sharp contrast to the traditional,
closed character as inherited family business.

In the developed market US brokers have already upgraded themselves of


mere executioners and settlers of trades to personal financial planners who manage
the retail investor’s savings.

A similar transition is expected in India as well as in the not-too distant future.

Until the advent of the national stock exchange the broking industry was
largely confined to a few metros and operated as closed group, insulated from the
rest of the economy and largely unconcerned either about improving its working
practices of about the needs of retail investors.

2
From brokers to financial doctors

While seams involving some members have had a negative impact on


investor’s confidence from time to time, such black sheep constitute only a small part
of the broking community. Brokers who are primarily focused on proprietary trading
speculation arbitrage activities and are not offering broking services to wider clients
also can be excluded.

Concern for customers

This is clearly an attitude issue and its importance obvious to any practitioner
of professional management. However, many brokers need to put more attention to
this critical issue and enshrine it as the mother of all guiding principles in their
organizations.

Professional work culture:

This is essential to ensure compliance risk management and efficient delivery


of serve to investors across the country and going forward, even global.

Risk management

SEBI and stock exchanges are introducing risk management practices such
as margin collection from each client and the like; many brokers are still
accommodative and permit their clients to conduct business without adequate
discipline. This needs to change and the broking community as a whole should work
closely with the regulators and its clients to ensure overall lowering of risks in the
system.

Risk profiling

This is an important activity and needs to be done systematically using


computerized tools. Apart from helping the broker to understand the risk appetite of
each client, is also helps in customizing the advice and deciding on the client’s
portfolio restructuring and asset allocation.

3
Portfolio management:

Though this idea is not new for the Indian markets, its likely to emerge now as
an important and significant business opportunities for savings, which continue to
grow at a healthy 12% annum, but are still largely invested in bank deposits.

Professional management culture:

Today every aspect of modern financial markets can be commodities and in


some way transformed into an electronic process thereby encouraging a low margin
which volume business.

This makes the case stronger for working smarter and being able to offer
newer products and services beyond the current skill set of the majority of the
competitors and having global knowledge and information.

The broking industry also faces the challenge of providing value addition to
customers on an on going basis. Only those with ability to provide the right financial
solution to the clients at the right time will emerge stronger and better respected in a
society as financial doctors instead of continuing as a mere brokers !

4
Benefits to all Participants

Indian traditions each one to materialism that is considered a potential source


of suffering. A similar attitude applied to settlements of transactions in securities
help in material form as it created a lot of problems in the marketplace at the level of
each market participant.

SEBI has played a proactive role in the successful transiting from paper
based mode to electronic mode by making it mandatory to settle trades in certain
securities only in demit mode.

A depository is an information technology based service provider, which


requires healthy investment in hardware, software, networking and back-up facilities
to run the system on 24 / 7 basis. Besides as per depository regulations,
depositories have to maintain a net worth Rs. 100 crores at all times. Depository
services are made available to investors through depository participants an
important link between the depository and the beneficial owner (investor). The
broking firms to do these activities very effectively.

The BHAVE committee set up by SEBI on the issue of reduction of demit


costs has rightly recommended that companies have been making substantial
saving on share transfer work, printing postage and staff salary etc. Therefore ways
and means may found out to make these companies bear at least a substantial part
of the cost of dematerialization, which will provide some relief to the investors.

Once the securities are dematerialized it is not possible for the depositories to
stop transitions in respect of these securities even if other issuers fail to pay the fees
to the depositories. Depositories will have no power to deactivate ISINs which
incase goes against the interest of the investors, as often happens in the case of
suspension of trading by stock exchange for non payment of listing fees.

5
1.3 A PROFILE OF KARVY STOCK BROKING LTD.

The birth of Karvy was on a modest scale in 1981. It began with the vision
and enterprise of a small group of practicing Chartered Accountants who founded
the flagship company. Karvy Consultants Limited. We started with consulting and
financial accounting automation, and carved inroads into the field of registry and
share accounting by 1985. Since then, we have utilized our experience and
superlative expertise to go from strength to strength…to better our services, to
provide new ones, to innovate, diversify and in the process, evolved Karvy as one of
India’s premier integrated financial service enterprise.

Thus over the last 20 years Karvy has traveled the success route, towards
building a reputation as an integrated financial services provider, offering a wide
spectrum of services. And we have made this journey by taking the route of quality
service, path breaking innovations in service, versatility in service and finally…
totality in service. Our highly qualified manpower, cutting-edge technology,
comprehensive infrastructure and total customer-focus has secured for us the
position of an emerging financial services giant enjoying the confidence and support
of an enviable clientele across diverse fields in the financial world.

6
Our values and vision of attaining total competence in our servicing has
served as the building block for creating a great financial enterprise, which stands
solid on our fortresses of financial strength - our various companies.

With the experience of years of holistic financial servicing behind us and


years of complete expertise in the industry to look forward to, we have now emerged
as a premier integrated financial services provider.

And today, we can look with pride at the fruits of our mastery and experience
– comprehensive financial services that are competently segregated to service and
manage a diverse range of customer requirements.

Achievements

 Among the top 5 stock brokers in India (4% of NSE volumes)

 India's No. 1 Registrar & Securities Transfer Agents

 Among the to top 3 Depository Participants

 Largest Network of Branches & Business Associates

 ISO 9002 certified operations by DNV

 Among top 10 Investment bankers

 Largest Distributor of Financial Products

 Adjudged as one of the top 50 IT uses in India by MIS Asia

 Full Fledged IT driven operations

Karvy Alliance

Karvy Computer share Private Limited is a 50:50 joint venture of Karvy


Consultants Limited and Computer share Limited, Australia. Computer share Limited

7
is world's largest -- and only global -- share registry, and a leading financial market
services provider to the global securities industry.

The joint venture with Computer share, reckoned as the largest registrar in
the world, servicing over 60 million shareholder accounts for over 7,000 corporations
across eleven countries spread across five continents. Computer share manages
more than 70 million shareholder accounts for over 13,000 corporations around the
world.

Karvy Computer share Private Limited, today, is India's largest Registrar and
Share Transfer Agent servicing over 300 corporates and mutual funds and 16 million
investors.

Quality Policy

To achieve and retain leadership, Karvy shall aim for complete customer
satisfaction, by combining its human and technological resources, to provide
superior quality financial services. In the process, Karvy will strive to
exceed Customer's expectations.

Quality Objectives

As per the Quality Policy, Karvy will :

 Build in-house processes that will ensure transparent and harmonious


relationships with its clients and investors to provide high quality of
services.
 Establish a partner relationship with its investor service agents and
vendors that will help in keeping up its commitments to the customers.
 Provide high quality of work life for all its employees and equip them
with adequate knowledge & skills so as to respond to customer's
needs.
 Continue to uphold the values of honesty & integrity and strive to
establish unparalleled standards in business ethics.

8
 Use state-of-the art information technology in developing new and
innovative financial products and services to meet the changing needs
of investors and clients.
 Strive to be a reliable source of value-added financial products and
services and constantly guide the individuals and institutions in making
a judicious choice of same.
 Strive to keep all stake-holders(shareholders, clients, investors,
employees, suppliers and regulatory authorities) proud and satisfied.

Key People in Karvy

Board of Directors – Karvy Consultants Ltd.

 Parthasarathy C
 Yugandhar M.
 Ramakrishna M.S.
 Prasad V Potluri

Board of Directors – Karvy Securities Ltd.

 Parthasarathy C
 Yugandhar M.
 Ramakrishna M.S.

Board of Directors – Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

 Parthasarathy C
 Yugandhar M.
 Ramakrishna M.S.

Board of Directors – Karvy Investor Services Ltd.

 Parthasarathy C
 Yugandhar M.

9
 Ramakrishna M.S.

Key Contacts at Head Office

 G. Gopalakrishnamacharyulu
 V. Ganesh
 V.Mahesh
 K Sridhar
 S Gopichand

1.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

 To analyze the share price movements of pharmaceutical industries, it


industries and banking sectors.

 To assess the price movements / randomness of scripts belongs to


Pharma, IT and Banking sector.

 To analyze the bullish and bearish trend of shares using the Japanese
candle stick.

 To analyze the trends & trend reversal of shares.

10
1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

11
Technical analysis is the most widely used tool for analyzing and predicting
the trend of the stock market. This approach is the oldest approach to equity
investment. Technical analysis helps to study the behaviour of the price of the stock
to determine the future prices of the stock. Hence the study conducted at KARVY
STOCK BROKING Ltd.. is made to analyze the price fluctuation in the stock market.
For this purpose four major sectors viz IT, Pharmaceuticals, Oil and gas and
Banking sector. The blue chip three companies are considered from among these
sectors for the study purpose.

1.6 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

12
Only 6 months samples were taken for analysis. In case data spanning more than
this analysis may show yet another result.

Indepth and broad study and analysis of all the major and minor companies in each
of the selected sector were not possible with limited time of 45 days.

This analysis is based on the assumption that history repeats itself it may not be true
under the influence of some fundamental factors like economic, industrial and
companies factors.

13
CHAPTER:2-RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Research methodology is a way to solve the research problem. In it the


various steps that are generally adopted by a researcher in studying his research
problem along with the logic behind them is explained. All this means that it is
necessary for the researcher to design his methodology for his problem as the same
may differ from problem to problem

2.1Research design

Research design is the frame work or plan or blue print based on which the
researcher is collecting data, analyzing data and providing solution to the problem.
This research study is based on exploratory research design. The exploratory
research design does not deal with providing solution to the problem. It is only fact
finding approach.

2.2Data collection method:

The data needed for the research work is collected from various sources like;
websites, magazines, journals etc.

2.3Sampling

For the purpose of study the 6 months (1st January to 21st July 2006) stock
price of various companies are collected.

14
2.4Statistical Technique

In order to find out the solution for the research problems, various statistical
tools are taken. They are

Moving average

Run Test

High, low, close chart

Candlestick

Up trend line

Down trend line

15
2.5THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The share price movements are analyzed broadly with two approaches
namely, fundamental approach and technical approach. Fundamental approach
analysis the share prices on the basis of economy, industry and company statistics.
If the price of the share is lower than its intrinsic value investors buys it. But, if the
price is higher than the intrinsic value he sells and gets profits. The technical analyst
mainly studies the stock price movements of the security market. If there is an
upward trend in the price movements investors may purchase the slip with the onset
of fall in price. He may sell it and move from the strip. Basically, technical analyst
and the fundamental analyst aim at good return on investment.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The technical analyst belief that share prices are determined the demand and
supply forces operating in the market. These demand and supply forces in turn are
influenced by a number of fundamental factors as well as certain psychological or
imotional factors. Many of these factors cannot be quantified. The combined impact
of all factors is reflected in the share price movement. The technical analyst there
fore concentrate on this movement of share prices. He claims that by examing past
share price movement future share price can be accurately predicted

The rational behind technical analysis is that share price behaviour repeats
itself over time and the analyst’s attempts to derive methods to predict this repetition.
The technical analyst looks at the past share price data to establish any of pattern.
He then looks at current price data to see any of the established patterns are
applicable and, if so, extra – potation can be made to predict the future price
movement.

16
ASSUMPTIONS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (BASIC PRINCIPLES)

The basic principles on which technical analysis is based may be summarised


as follows :

1) The market value of a security is related to demand and supply factors


operating in the market.

2) Supply and demand is influenced by variety of factors both rational and


irrational. These include fundamental factors as well as psychological factors.

3) The market always moves in trend except for minor deviation, the stock prices
moves in trends. The price may create definite pattern too, the trend may be
either increasing or decreasing. The trend continues for some time and then
it reverses.

4) Trend in stock prices have been seen to change when there is a shift in the
demand and supply factors.

5) The shift in demand and supply can be detected through charts prepared
specially to show market action.

6) Because of this persistence of trend and patterns, analysis of past market


data can be used to predict future price behaviour.

HISTORY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Dow Theory)

The Dow theory was formulated by Charls H Dow, who was the editor
of the ‘Valstreet’ journal in USA during 1900-1902.

Proponent of the Dow theory refers to the three movements.

a) Primary trends representing bull and bear of the market.

b) Secondary movements or corrections that may last for few weeks to some
months.

c) Daily fluctuations

17
Primary Trend:

The Primary movements are the long range cycle that carries the entire
market up or down. This is the long term trend in the market. An upward Primary
trend represents a Bull market, where as a downward Primary trends represents a
Bear market. A major upward move is said to occure when the high point of each
rally is higher than the higher point of the proceeding value and the low point of each
decline is higher than the low point of the proceeding decline likewise. A major
downward move is said to occure then the high point of each rally is lower than the
higher point of the preceding decline.

The following graph shows that Primary trend of Bull Market.

p ric e

d a t e

The following graph shows the primary level of Bear Market.

18
p ric e

D a t e

Secondary Trend:

The secondary trend or intermediate trend moves against the main trends
and leads to correction. In the bull market the secondary trend would result in the
fall 33 – 66 % of the earlier rise. In the bear market the secondary trend carries the
price upward and correct the main trend. The correction would be 33 – 66 % of the
earlier fall. Intermediate trend corrects over bought and over sold condition.
Compared to the time taken for the primary trend, secondary trend is shift and quick.
The following figure shows the secondary movement.
t e

19
D a t e

Minor Trend :

Minor trends are simply the daily price fluctuations. Minor trends tries to
correct the secondary trend movement. It is better for the investors to concentrate
on primary or secondary trends than on the minor trends.

CHARTS

Technical analysts use a variety of charting techniques. Charts are the


valuable and easiest tools in the technical analysis. The graphic presentation of the
data helps the investor to find out the trend of the price without any difficulty. The
charts also have the following uses.

1 Spot the current trend for buying and selling

2 Indicate the probable future action of the market by the projection

3 Show the past historic movement

4 Indicate the important areas of support and resistance

20
Following are the important charts used by technical analyst.

Line Chart:

It is the simplest price chart. In this chart the closing prices of a share are
ploted on the XY graph on a day-to-day basis. The closing price of each day would
be represented by a point on the XY graph.

All these point would be connected by a straight line, which would indicate the
trend of the market. The following chart shows the line chart.

Bar chart:

It is the most popular chart used by technical analysts. In this chart the
highest price the lowest price and the closing price of each day are quoted on a day-
to-day basis by fixing the highest price and lowest price of a particular day by a
vertical line. The top of bar represents the lowest price of the day and a small
horizontal line on the right of the bar is used to represent the closing price of the
day.an example of price bar chart shown in the following figure.

Point and figure chart:

Point and figure chart has the following features,

1) On a PFC only significant price changes are recorded. For example, for a
stock that has a price in the range of, say 30-50 Rs. price changes one rupee
or more only may be posted.

2) The vertical scale of PFC represents the price of the stock, the horizontal
scale does not represent the time scale in the usual sense.

3) Each column on the horizontal column of the PFC represents a significant


reversal of price movements and not a trading day.

21
Japanies Candlestick Chart :

The Japanies candlestick chart shows the highest price, the lowest price, the
opening price and the closing price of shares on a day to day basis. The highest
price and lowest price of a day are joined by a vertical bar. The opening price and
closing price of the day, which would fall below the highest, and the longest price
would be represented by a rectangle. So that the price bar chart look like a
candlestick. Thus each days of activity is represented by a candlestick.

There are mainly three types of candlestick – The white, the black, the dogi or
neutral candlestick. A white candlestick is used to present a situation. Where the
closing price of the day is higher than the opening price. A black candlestick is used
when the closing price of the day is lower than the opening price. Thus white
candlestick indicates a bullish trend and a black candlestick indicates a bearish
trend. A dogi candlestick is the one where the opening price and the closing price of
the day are same. A Japanies candlestick stock is illustrated below.

TRENDS AND TREND REVERSAL

Trend is the direction of movement of share price in the market. When prices
move upwards, it is a rising trend or up trend. When the prices move down wards it
is a falling trend or down trend. There is a flat trend when the prices move with in a
narrow range.

The change in the direction of trend is referred to as trend reversal a share


that exhibits. A rising trend may start to more narrowly or fall after some time. This
change in the direction of movement represents a trend reversal. The reversal from
a rising trend to a falling trend is marked by the formation of lower top and lower
bottom. In the same way the reversal from a falling trend to rising trend is
characterized by the formation of higher bottom and higher top.

22
The technical analyst tries to identify trend reversal at an early stage so as to
trade profitable in the market. When the trend reverses and begins to raise the
technical analyst would recommend purchase of the share. When the trend begins
to fall, sale is indicated, during a flat trend the investor should stay away from the
market.

Support and resistance level

Support and resistance are price levels at which the down trend or up trend in price
movements are reversed. Support occurs when price is falling but reverses direction
every time it reaches a particular level. When all these low points are connected by
a horizontal line, it forms the support line. In other words support level is the price
level at which sufficient buying pressure, is exerted to half the fall in prices.

Resistance occurs when the share price moves upwards. The price may bounds
back every time it reaches a particular level. A horizontal line joining these tops
forms the resistance level. Thus resistance level is the price level were sufficient
selling pressure exerted to half the ongoing rise in the price of a share.

Support and resistance usually occurs when the turnover of large number of share
tend to be concentrated at several price level. When the stock touches a certain
level and hen drops, this is called resistance and if the stock reaches down to a
certain level and then rises there exist a support. The following figure shows support
and resistance level.

1 If the script where to break the support level and move downwards, it has
bearish implications signaling the possibility of a further fall in the prices.

2 Similarly if the scrips where to penetrate the resistance level it would be an


indicator of a bullish trend or a further rise in the price.

23
Cart Pattern

1 Head and Shoulder formation

The most popular reversal pattern is the head and shoulder formation, which
usually occurs at the end of a long up trend. This formation exhibits a hump or
top followed by a still higher top or peak and then another hump or lower top.
This formation resembles the head and two shoulders of a man and the name
head and shoulder formation.

The first hump, known as the left shoulder, is formed when the prices reach the
top under a strong buying impulse. Then trading volume becomes less and there
is a short downward swing. This followed by another high volume advance,
which takes the price to a higher top known as the head. This is followed by
another reaction on less volume, which takes the price take to bottom near to the
earlier down swing. A third rally now occurs taking the price to a height less than
the fixed but comparable to the left shoulder.

This rally results in the formation of the right shoulder a horizontal line joining the
bottoms this formation is known as the neckline. As the price penetrates this
neckline the formation of head and shoulder is completed.

The H and S formation usually occurs at the end of bull phase and is indicative of
a reversal trend after breaking the neckline the price is exempted to decline
sharply.

24
Inverse head and shoulder formation

This pattern is the reverse of the H and S formation. This occurs at the end of a
bear phase and consist of three distinct bottoms. The first bottom is the left
shoulder, and then comes a lower bottom, which forms the head followed by the
third bottom, which is termed as the right shoulder. The neckline is drawn by
joining the tops from which the head and right shoulder originate. When the price
raises above the neckline the formation of the pattern is considered to be
completed. The inverse head and shoulder pattern is also a reversal pattern
indicative of an oncoming bullish phase.

2 V Formation

The name it self indicated that the ‘V’ formation there is a long sharp decline and
fast reversal. The V pattern occurs mostly in the popular stocks where the
market interest changes quickly from hope to fear and vice versa. In the case of
inverted ‘^’ the rise occurs first and declines.

In this pattern the investor has to buy after up trend has started and exit before
the tope is reached.

3 Double top and Bottom ( M and W pattern)

This type of formation signals the end of one trend and the beginning of another.
If the double top formed when a stock price rises to a certain level, falls rapidly,
again rises to same height or more and turns down. Its pattern resembles the
letter ‘M’ the double top may indicate the onset of the bear market.

In a double a bottom, the price of the stock falls to a certain level and increase
with diminishing activity then it falls again to the same or to a lower price and
turns up to a higher level. The double bottom resembles the better ‘W’.
Technical analyst view double bottom as a sign for bull mark

4 Triangles

The triangle formation is easy to identify and popular in technical analysis. The
triangles are of a symmetrical ascending, descending etc.

25
a) Symmetrical triangle :

This pattern is made up of series of fluctuations, each fluctuation smaller than


the previous one top do not attain the height of the previous tops like wise
bottoms are higher than the previous bottoms. Connecting the lower tops that
are standing downward forms a symmetrical triangle connecting rising
bottom, which is standing upward becomes the lower trend value. It is not
easy to predict the break away either way. The symmetrical triangle has any
bias towards the bull and bear operators. It indicates the slow down or
temporary half in the directions of the original trend.

b) Ascending Triangle

Here up trend line is almost a horizontal trend line connecting the tops and
the lower trends line is a rising trend line connecting the rising bottoms.
Ascending triangle pattern shows the bullish trend. This pattern is generally
spotted during an up move and the probability of the upward move is higher
there.

c) Descending triangle

Here connecting the lower tops from the upper trend line. The upper trend
line would be a falling one. The lower line indicates the support line. The
pattern indicates that the bear operators are more powerful than the bull
operators and shows a bearish trend.

5 Flags

The flag formation looks like a parallelogram with the two trend lines from two
parallel lines.

The volume of trading is expected to fall during formation of the flag and again pick
up on breaking up in the pattern.

26
Technical indicators

1 Volume of trading

Historical data analysis of price and volume movement indicates that in a normal
market, the price rise in accompanies by an expanding volume. Termination of
phase is often accompanied by a selling climax following a decline in prices; a heavy
volume of trade with little price change is indicative of accumulation and is normally
a bullish factor. A strong bull market can exist as long as buying pressure continuous
to be strong. These indications are to be studied carefully before a final decision is
taken on the state of the market, whether a bullish or bearish, the phase of the up
trend or downtrend and look for buy and sell signals at the start of the reversal
trends.

2 Breadth of the market

The breadth of the market is the term often used to study the advances and declines
that have occurred in the stock market. Advances mean the number of shares
whose price has increased from the previous days trading. Declines indicate the
number of shares whose price has fallen from the previous days trading. This is
easy to plot and watch indicator because that are available all business dailies. The
net difference between the numbers of advanced and declined during the same
period s the breadth of the market. A cumulative index of net differences measures
the market breadth.

3 Short Sale

Short selling is a technical indicator known as short interest. Short sales refer to the
selling of shares that are not own the bears are the short sellers who sell now in the
hope of purchasing at a lower price in the future to make profit. The short sellers
have to cover out their positions. Short positions of scrips are published in the
business newspapers. Short sales of a particular month is selected and compared
with the average daily volume of the preceding months. Short interest ratio is
defined as follows.

27
Short interest ratio = Total number of shares sold short /
Average daily trading volume

This ratio shows how many days of trading it would like to user. If the ratio is less
than the one, market is said to be weak or over bought and a decline can be
expected. The value between 1 and 0.5 shows natural condition of the market
values above ‘1’ indicate bullish trend and if it is above 2 the market is said to be
oversold at market tops, short selling is high and at market bottom short selling is
low.

4 Odd lot trading

Shares are generally sold in a lot of 100 shares, sold in small lots less than 100 are
called odd lot. Such buyers and sellers are called odd loters. Odd lot purchases to
odd lot sales (purchase / sales) are the odd lot index. The increase in odd lot
purchase results in an increase in the index, relatively more selling leads to fall in the
index. It is generally considered that the professional investor is more informed and
stronger than the odd lots. When the professional investors dominate the market,
the stock market is technically strong. Of the odd loters dominate the market, the
market is considered to be technically weak. The notion behind is that odd lot
purchase is concentrated at the top of the market cycle and selling at bottom. High
odd lot purchase forecast fall in the market price and low purchase / selling ratio
presumed to occur towards the end of bear market.

Mathematical indicators

5 Moving Average

The market indicates do not rise or fall in straight line. The upward and downward
movements are interpreted by countermoves. The underline trend can be studied by
smoothening of the data. To smooth the data moving average technique is used.

The moving averages are used to study the movement of the market as well as the
individual script price. The moving average indicates the underlining trend in the
scrip. The period of average determines the period of trend that is being identified.

28
For identifying short term trend, 10 days to 30 days moving average is used. In the
case of medium term trend 50 day to 125 day are adopted. 200 days moving
average is used to identify long term.

a) Index and stock price moving average : Individual stock price is compared with
stock market indicates the moving average of stock and the index are plotted in
the same sheet and trends are compared. Of NSE or BSE index is above stock
moving average line, the particular stock has bullish trend. The price may
increase above the market average. If the SENSEX or NIFTY is below the
stock moving average, the bearish market can be expected for the particular
stock.

If the moving average of the stock penetrates the stock market index from
above, it generalize sell signal, unfavourable market condition prevails for the
particular scrip if the stock line push up through the market average, it is buy signal.

b) Stock price and stock prices moving average: Buy and sell signals are provided
by the moving averages. Moving averages are used along with the price of the
scrip. The stock price may intersect the moving average at a particular point.
Downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further
fall.

5 Oscillators

Oscillators are mathematical indicators calculated with the help of closing price data.
They help to identify over bought and oversold conditions and also the possibility of
trend reversal. These indicators are called oscillators because they move across a
reference point. The two important oscillators are

i) Rate Of Change Indicator (ROC)

ii) Relative Strength Index (RSI)

i) Rate of change indicator: It is very popular oscillator, which measures the rate
of change of the current price as compared to the price of certain number of
days or weeks back. To calculate seven days rate of change each day price

29
is divided by the price, which prevails seven days ago and then one, is
substracted from this price rates.

ROC = current price / price ‘n’ period ago

The ROC values may be positive, negative or zero. The ROC values are
plotted on a xy graph, where the 'x' axis represents the time and the 'y' axis
represents the values of ROC. ROC values oscillate across the zero line
when the ROC line is above the zero line, the price is rising when it is bellow
the zero line, the price is falling. An ROC chart is shown in the following
figure.

ii) Relative strength index: This is a powerful indicator that signals buying and
selling opportunity. RSI for a share calculated by using the following formula.

RSI = 100 – (100 / 1+ Rs.)

RS = Average gain per day / Average loss per day

The most commonly used time period for the calculation of RSI is 14 days. For the
calculation of 14 days RSI, the gain per day or loss per day is arrived by comparing
a closing price of a day with that of the previous day for a period of 14 days. The
gains are added up and divided by 14 to get the average gain per day. Similarly, the
losses are added up and divided by 14 to get the average loss per day.

30
CHAPTER:3-ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE
SHOWING MOVING AVG FOR INFOSYS

Date Close Avg Date Close Avg


1-Jun-06 2829.85 27-Jun-06 2967.45 456.955
2-Jun-06 2886 28-Jun-06 2974.5 594.195
5-Jun-06 2824.25 29-Jun-06 2993.65 893.56
6-Jun-06 2765.4 30-Jun-06 3078.95 1201.455
7-Jun-06 2763.25 3-Jul-06 3154.35 1516.89
8-Jun-06 2703.8 4-Jul-06 3149.65 1831.855
9-Jun-06 2794.65 5-Jul-06 3194.1 2151.265
12-Jun-06 2763.2 6-Jul-06 3163.85 2467.65
13-Jun-06 2639.1 7-Jul-06 3105 2778.15
14-Jun-06 2485.2 2745.47 10-Jul-06 3188.05 3096.955
15-Jun-06 2727.05 2735.19 11-Jul-06 3148.2 3115.03
16-Jun-06 2801.15 2726.705 12-Jul-06 3385.65 3156.145
19-Jun-06 2871.2 2731.4 13-Jul-06 1681.95 3024.975
20-Jun-06 2844 2739.26 14-Jul-06 1648.75 2881.955
21-Jun-06 2923.25 2755.26 17-Jul-06 1605.25 2727.045
22-Jun-06 2951.85 2780.065 18-Jul-06 1629.55 2575.035
23-Jun-06 2991.55 2799.755 19-Jul-06 1604.55 2416.08
25-Jun-06 2989.65 2822.4 20-Jul-06 1647.85 2264.48
26-Jun-06 2900.2 2848.51 21-Jul-06 1602.1 2114.19

31
MOVING AVERAGE FOR INFOSYS

3500
3300 Clo se
3100 b Avg
2900
2700
E
C
I 2500
a
R 2300
P
2100
1900
1700
1500
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/ 2
/
1
/ 8
/ 5 2 9 6
/ 3 0
6 6 /1 /2 /2 7 /1 /2
6 6 6 7 7
DATE

INTERPRETATION:

The moving averge for infosys shows that it has buy signal at a point a and a
sell signal at point b.

32
RUN TEST OF INFOSYS

Date Close Sign Runs Date Close Sign Runs


1-Jun-06 2829.85 27-Jun-06 2967.45+
2-Jun-06 2886+ 1 28-Jun-06 2974.5+
5-Jun-06 2824.25- 29-Jun-06 2993.65+
6-Jun-06 2765.4- 30-Jun-06 3078.95+
7-Jun-06 2763.25- 3-Jul-06 3154.35+ 9
8-Jun-06 2703.8- 2 4-Jul-06 3149.65- 10
9-Jun-06 2794.65+ 3 5-Jul-06 3194.1+ 11
12-Jun-06 2763.2- 6-Jul-06 3163.85-
13-Jun-06 2639.1- 7-Jul-06 3105- 12
14-Jun-06 2485.2- 4 10-Jul-06 3188.05+ 13
15-Jun-06 2727.05+ 11-Jul-06 3148.2- 14
16-Jun-06 2801.15+ 12-Jul-06 3385.65+ 15
19-Jun-06 2871.2+ 5 13-Jul-06 1681.95-
20-Jun-06 2844- 6 14-Jul-06 1648.75-
21-Jun-06 2923.25+ 17-Jul-06 1605.25- 16
22-Jun-06 2951.85+ 18-Jul-06 1629.55+ 17
23-Jun-06 2991.55+ 19-Jul-06 1604.55- 18
25-Jun-06 2989.65+ 7 20-Jul-06 1647.85+ 19
26-Jun-06 2900.2- 8 21-Jul-06 1602.1- 20

33
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=20
n1=19
n2=19
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)
X=(2*19*19)/(19+19)+1
X=20
2 =[2∗19∗19(2∗19∗19−19−19)]/(19+19)2 (19+19−1)
σ
σ =√34.94043
σ =5.9110
Z=(20-20)/5.9110
Z=0

INTERPRETATION:

Since the calculated value is 0 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.

34
TABLE SHOWING HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR INFOSYS

Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 2949 2965 2805.1 2829.85 27-Jun-06 2905 2980 2842.1 2967.45
2-Jun-06 2850 2900 2810 2886 28-Jun-06 2931.25 2994 2880 2974.5
5-Jun-06 2918 2924 2810.25 2824.25 29-Jun-06 2994 3020 2985.25 2993.65
6-Jun-06 2800 2843.95 2745.55 2765.4 30-Jun-06 3084 3130 3025 3078.95
7-Jun-06 2754 2790 2700 2763.25 3-Jul-06 3085 3160 3062.35 3154.35
8-Jun-06 2785.4 2785.4 2605.35 2703.8 4-Jul-06 3160 3189.7 3135 3149.65
9-Jun-06 2683.15 2825 2683.15 2794.65 5-Jul-06 3180 3204.3 3111.05 3194.1
12-Jun-06 2800 2848 2725 2763.2 6-Jul-06 3146.1 3190 3125 3163.85
13-Jun-06 2747 2750 2620.35 2639.1 7-Jul-06 3190 3240 3092.05 3105
14-Jun-06 2694.7 2719 2450 2485.2 10-Jul-06 3189 3195 3101.1 3188.05
15-Jun-06 2560 2761 2540 2727.05 11-Jul-06 3199 3225 3135 3148.2
16-Jun-06 2761 2913.7 2761 2801.15 12-Jul-06 3300 3400 3205 3385.65
19-Jun-06 2800 2890 2775 2871.2 13-Jul-06 1748 1799 1666 1681.95
20-Jun-06 2858 2870 2801 2844 14-Jul-06 1650 1661.05 1620 1648.75
21-Jun-06 2825 2935 2810 2923.25 17-Jul-06 1641 1645.7 1600 1605.25
22-Jun-06 2994.7 2994.7 2931.05 2951.85 18-Jul-06 1610.35 1645 1605 1629.55
23-Jun-06 2931.05 3010 2890 2991.55 19-Jul-06 1661 1661 1597.1 1604.55
25-Jun-06 2995 3020 2980 2989.65 20-Jul-06 1698.7 1698.7 1633 1647.85
26-Jun-06 2999 2999 2890 2900.2 21-Jul-06 1634.8 1634.8 1580.5 1602.1

35
INTERPRIETATION:

The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.

36
TABLE SHOWING HEAD
AND SHOULDER FOR
INFOSYS

Date price date price


1-Jun-06 2829.85 21-Jun-06 2923.25
2-Jun-06 2886 22-Jun-06 2951.85
5-Jun-06 2824.25 23-Jun-06 2991.55
6-Jun-06 2765.4 25-Jun-06 2989.65
7-Jun-06 2763.25 26-Jun-06 2900.2
8-Jun-06 2703.8 27-Jun-06 2967.45
9-Jun-06 2794.65 28-Jun-06 2974.5
12-Jun-06 2763.2 29-Jun-06 2993.65
13-Jun-06 2639.1 30-Jun-06 3078.95
14-Jun-06 2485.2 3-Jul-06 3154.35
15-Jun-06 2727.05 4-Jul-06 3149.65
16-Jun-06 2801.15 5-Jul-06 3194.1
19-Jun-06 2871.2 6-Jul-06 3163.85
20-Jun-06 2844 7-Jul-06 3105

HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR INFOSYS

3050
HEAD
3000
LEFT
2950 SHOULDER
E RIGHT
IC2900
R
P2850 SELL SIGNAL
2800 NECKLINE

2750

DATE

INTERPRETATION:

The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

37
TABLE SHOWING UP TREND OF INFOSYS

date price date price date price

1-Mar-06 2905.15 31-Mar-06 2981.4 4-May-06 3211.3


2-Mar-06 2854.3 3-Apr-06 3142.15 5-May-06 3212.1
3-Mar-06 2824.35 4-Apr-06 3152.7 6-May-06 3228.25
6-Mar-06 2855 5-Apr-06 3114.75 7-May-06 3237.15
7-Mar-06 2819.5 7-Apr-06 3167 8-May-06 3256.25
8-Mar-06 2801.15 10-Apr-06 3189.3 9-May-06 3256.05
9-Mar-06 2843 12-Apr-06 3075.65 10-May-06 3242.3
10-Mar-06 2913.5 13-Apr-06 3018.85 11-May-06 3151.1
13-Mar-06 2935.2 17-Apr-06 3229.95 12-May-06 3150.05
14-Mar-06 2932.45 18-Apr-06 3336 13-May-06 3208.2
16-Mar-06 2921.8 19-Apr-06 3278.8 14-May-06 3033.95
17-Mar-06 2877.95 20-Apr-06 3276.6 15-May-06 2974.45
20-Mar-06 2966.9 21-Apr-06 3301.7 16-May-06 2823.7
21-Mar-06 2959.75 24-Apr-06 3204.8 17-May-06 2910.65
22-Mar-06 2920 25-Apr-06 3141.85 18-May-06 2860.95
23-Mar-06 2890.45 26-Apr-06 3224.95 19-May-06 2828.55
24-Mar-06 2896.35 27-Apr-06 3132.7 20-May-06 2934.25
27-Mar-06 2879.3 28-Apr-06 3139.65 21-May-06 2967.7
28-Mar-06 2960 29-Apr-06 3177.35 22-May-06 3026.5
29-Mar-06 3036.55 2-May-06 3164.25 23-May-06 2909.85
30-Mar-06 3043 3-May-06 3171.4

38
INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

39
TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR INFOSYS

Date Close
1-Jun-06 2829.85
2-Jun-06 2886
5-Jun-06 2824.25
6-Jun-06 2765.4
7-Jun-06 2763.25
8-Jun-06 2703.8
9-Jun-06 2794.65

INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

40
TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE OF INFOSYS

Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 2949 2965 2805.1 2829.85 27-Jun-06 2905 2980 2842.1 2967.45
2-Jun-06 2850 2900 2810 2886 28-Jun-06 2931.25 2994 2880 2974.5
5-Jun-06 2918 2924 2810.25 2824.25 29-Jun-06 2994 3020 2985.25 2993.65
6-Jun-06 2800 2843.95 2745.55 2765.4 30-Jun-06 3084 3130 3025 3078.95
7-Jun-06 2754 2790 2700 2763.25 3-Jul-06 3085 3160 3062.35 3154.35
8-Jun-06 2785.4 2785.4 2605.35 2703.8 4-Jul-06 3160 3189.7 3135 3149.65
9-Jun-06 2683.15 2825 2683.15 2794.65 5-Jul-06 3180 3204.3 3111.05 3194.1
12-Jun-06 2800 2848 2725 2763.2 6-Jul-06 3146.1 3190 3125 3163.85
13-Jun-06 2747 2750 2620.35 2639.1 7-Jul-06 3190 3240 3092.05 3105
14-Jun-06 2694.7 2719 2450 2485.2 10-Jul-06 3189 3195 3101.1 3188.05
15-Jun-06 2560 2761 2540 2727.05 11-Jul-06 3199 3225 3135 3148.2
16-Jun-06 2761 2913.7 2761 2801.15 12-Jul-06 3300 3400 3205 3385.65
19-Jun-06 2800 2890 2775 2871.2 13-Jul-06 1748 1799 1666 1681.95
20-Jun-06 2858 2870 2801 2844 14-Jul-06 1650 1661.05 1620 1648.75
21-Jun-06 2825 2935 2810 2923.25 17-Jul-06 1641 1645.7 1600 1605.25
22-Jun-06 2994.7 2994.7 2931.05 2951.85 18-Jul-06 1610.35 1645 1605 1629.55
23-Jun-06 2931.05 3010 2890 2991.55 19-Jul-06 1661 1661 1597.1 1604.55
25-Jun-06 2995 3020 2980 2989.65 20-Jul-06 1698.7 1698.7 1633 1647.85
26-Jun-06 2999 2999 2890 2900.2 21-Jul-06 1634.8 1634.8 1580.5 1602.1

41
INTERPRIETATION:

The candlestick diagram shows both the black,white and doby candle
stick also . It means that there is fluctuations in the price.

42
MOVING AVG FOR WIPRO

Date Close Avg Date Close Avg


1-Jun-06 444.7 27-Jun-06 473.9 449.035
2-Jun-06 469.9 28-Jun-06 484.15 455.45
5-Jun-06 457.5 29-Jun-06 496.7 461.07
6-Jun-06 445.2 30-Jun-06 513.35 468.82
7-Jun-06 445.35 3-Jul-06 502.5 476.88
8-Jun-06 419.55 4-Jul-06 500.65 483.055
9-Jun-06 434.9 5-Jul-06 496.85 487.695
12-Jun-06 422.3 6-Jul-06 491.1 489.845
13-Jun-06 395.3 7-Jul-06 468.85 489.195
14-Jun-06 389.5 432.42 10-Jul-06 493.85 492.19
15-Jun-06 420 429.95 11-Jul-06 495.5 494.35
16-Jun-06 440.5 427.01 12-Jul-06 516.4 497.575
19-Jun-06 435.85 424.845 13-Jul-06 502.6 498.165
20-Jun-06 421.9 422.515 14-Jul-06 489.1 495.74
21-Jun-06 438.9 421.87 17-Jul-06 478.7 493.36
22-Jun-06 450.45 424.96 18-Jul-06 485.25 491.82
23-Jun-06 469.6 428.43 19-Jul-06 458.35 487.97
25-Jun-06 475.35 433.735 20-Jul-06 469.95 485.855
26-Jun-06 463.9 440.595 21-Jul-06 449 483.87

43
INTERPRETATION:

The moving averge for shows that it has buy signal at a point a and a sell
signal at point b.

44
TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR WIPRO

Date Close Sign Run Date Close Sign Run


1-Jun-06 444.7 27-Jun-06 473.9 +
2-Jun-06 469.9 + 1 28-Jun-06 484.15 - 11
5-Jun-06 457.5 - 29-Jun-06 496.7 +
6-Jun-06 445.2 - 2 30-Jun-06 513.35 + 13
7-Jun-06 445.35 + 3 3-Jul-06 502.5 -
8-Jun-06 419.55 - 4 4-Jul-06 500.65 -
9-Jun-06 434.9 + 5 5-Jul-06 496.85 -
12-Jun-06 422.3 - 6-Jul-06 491.1 -
13-Jun-06 395.3 - 7-Jul-06 468.85 - 14
14-Jun-06 389.5 - 6 10-Jul-06 493.85 +
15-Jun-06 420 + 11-Jul-06 495.5 +
16-Jun-06 440.5 + 7 12-Jul-06 516.4 + 15
19-Jun-06 435.85 - 13-Jul-06 502.6 -
20-Jun-06 421.9 - 8 14-Jul-06 489.1 -
21-Jun-06 438.9 + 17-Jul-06 478.7 - 16
22-Jun-06 450.45 + 18-Jul-06 485.25 + 17
23-Jun-06 469.6 + 19-Jul-06 458.35 - 18
25-Jun-06 475.35 + 9 20-Jul-06 469.95 + 19
26-Jun-06 463.9 - 10 21-Jul-06 449 - 20

45
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/s
R=No. of runs
R=20
n1=17
n2=21
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
s2=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2)2(n1+n2-1)
X=(2*17*21)/(17+21)+1
X=19.7895
s2=[2*17*21(2*17*21-17-21)]/(17+21)2(17+21-1)
s=Ö9.0339
s=3.0056
Z=(20-197895)/3.0056
Z=0.070

INTERPRETATION:

Since the calculated value is .070 is less than 1.96 the runs are
occurred by chance.

46
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR WIPRO

47
Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 452 467 433.1 444.7 27-Jun-06 465 484 454 473.9
2-Jun-06 447.05 474 439.8 469.9 28-Jun-06 468 490 457.3 484.15
5-Jun-06 472.4 479.9 452 457.5 29-Jun-06 484.15 500 482 496.7
6-Jun-06 455 469.55 436.2 445.2 30-Jun-06 500.1 519 500.1 513.35
7-Jun-06 442.4 453.8 434 445.35 3-Jul-06 517.4 517.4 496.6 502.5
8-Jun-06 441 442 413 419.55 4-Jul-06 506 514.6 499 500.65
9-Jun-06 420 440.6 410.05 434.9 5-Jul-06 509.9 509.9 489.55 496.85
12-Jun-06 432.1 437 419.1 422.3 6-Jul-06 494 497.9 485.55 491.1
13-Jun-06 420 420 391 395.3 7-Jul-06 493.5 499.4 465.15 468.85
14-Jun-06 391 421 381.25 389.5 10-Jul-06 471.3 498.4 465 493.85
15-Jun-06 407 424.4 400 420 11-Jul-06 504.95 506 481.1 495.5
16-Jun-06 425 457.4 425 440.5 12-Jul-06 495 517.8 481 516.4
19-Jun-06 435.15 450 420.65 435.85 13-Jul-06 517 519 500 502.6
20-Jun-06 432 434 418.15 421.9 14-Jul-06 498 500 480.95 489.1
21-Jun-06 425.9 444.9 425 438.9 17-Jul-06 487.95 492 475 478.7
22-Jun-06 445 460 445 450.45 18-Jul-06 476 488 471 485.25
23-Jun-06 449.1 485 430.35 469.6 19-Jul-06 491.15 498.7 452 458.35
25-Jun-06 489 489 472 475.35 20-Jul-06 470 478.4 465 469.95
26-Jun-06 480 481 460 463.9 21-Jul-06 465 469.9 444.1 449

INTERPRIETATION: The high low close chart shows the high,low,close


price of an equity on the trading day.

TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR WIPRO

48
DATE PRICE

5-Jul-06 496.85
6-Jul-06 491.1
7-Jul-06 468.85
10-Jul-06 493.85
11-Jul-06 495.5
12-Jul-06 516.4
13-Jul-06 502.6
14-Jul-06 489.1
17-Jul-06 478.7
18-Jul-06 485.25
19-Jul-06 458.35

INTERPRETATION:

The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

49
TABLE SHOWING UP TREND OF WIPRO

date price date price

21-Apr-06 548.9 19-May-06 474.15


24-Apr-06 532.4 22-May-06 454.4
25-Apr-06 526.95 23-May-06 486.25
26-Apr-06 548.9 24-May-06 475
27-Apr-06 547.25 25-May-06 470.65
28-Apr-06 537.15 26-May-06 471.1
29-Apr-06 538.55 27-May-06 449.7
2-May-06 539.3 1-Jun-06 444.7
3-May-06 539.2 2-Jun-06 469.9
4-May-06 540.85 5-Jun-06 457.5
5-May-06 539.45 6-Jun-06 445.2
8-May-06 538.5 7-Jun-06 445.35
9-May-06 538.7 8-Jun-06 419.55
10-May-06 542.6 9-Jun-06 434.9
11-May-06 544.85 12-Jun-06 422.3
12-May-06 544.55 13-Jun-06 395.3
13-May-06 534.6 14-Jun-06 389.5
14-May-06 534.15 15-Jun-06 420
15-May-06 543.95 16-Jun-06 440.5
16-May-06 507.55 19-Jun-06 435.85
17-May-06 487.7 20-Jun-06 421.9
18-May-06 441.8 21-Jun-06 438.9

50
INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

DOWN TREND DATA FOR


WIPRO
DATE PRICE DATE PRICE
15-May-06 544.55 7-Jun-06 469.9
16-May-06 534.6 8-Jun-06 457.5
17-May-06 534.15 9-Jun-06 445.2
18-May-06 543.95 12-Jun-06 445.35
19-May-06 507.55 13-Jun-06 419.55
20-May-06 487.7 14-Jun-06 434.9
21-May-06 441.8 15-Jun-06 422.3
22-May-06 474.15 16-Jun-06 395.3
23-May-06 454.4 19-Jun-06 389.5
24-May-06 486.25 20-Jun-06 420
25-May-06 475 21-Jun-06 440.5
1-Jun-06 470.65 22-Jun-06 435.85
51
2-Jun-06 471.1 23-Jun-06 421.9
5-Jun-06 449.7 25-Jun-06 438.9
6-Jun-06 444.7 26-Jun-06 450.45
INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR WIPRO

Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close

52
1-Jun-06 452 467 433.1 444.7 27-Jun-06 465 484 454 473.9
2-Jun-06 447.05 474 439.8 469.9 28-Jun-06 468 490 457.3 484.15
5-Jun-06 472.4 479.9 452 457.5 29-Jun-06 484.15 500 482 496.7
6-Jun-06 455 469.55 436.2 445.2 30-Jun-06 500.1 519 500.1 513.35
7-Jun-06 442.4 453.8 434 445.35 3-Jul-06 517.4 517.4 496.6 502.5
8-Jun-06 441 442 413 419.55 4-Jul-06 506 514.6 499 500.65
9-Jun-06 420 440.6 410.05 434.9 5-Jul-06 509.9 509.9 489.55 496.85
12-Jun-06 432.1 437 419.1 422.3 6-Jul-06 494 497.9 485.55 491.1
13-Jun-06 420 420 391 395.3 7-Jul-06 493.5 499.4 465.15 468.85
14-Jun-06 391 421 381.25 389.5 10-Jul-06 471.3 498.4 465 493.85
15-Jun-06 407 424.4 400 420 11-Jul-06 504.95 506 481.1 495.5
16-Jun-06 425 457.4 425 440.5 12-Jul-06 495 517.8 481 516.4
19-Jun-06 435.15 450 420.65 435.85 13-Jul-06 517 519 500 502.6
20-Jun-06 432 434 418.15 421.9 14-Jul-06 498 500 480.95 489.1
21-Jun-06 425.9 444.9 425 438.9 17-Jul-06 487.95 492 475 478.7
22-Jun-06 445 460 445 450.45 18-Jul-06 476 488 471 485.25
23-Jun-06 449.1 485 430.35 469.6 19-Jul-06 491.15 498.7 452 458.35
25-Jun-06 489 489 472 475.35 20-Jul-06 470 478.4 465 469.95
26-Jun-06 480 481 460 463.9 21-Jul-06 465 469.9 444.1 449

INTERPRIETATION:

The black candlestick means previous closing price is more than todays
open&white means opening price is greater than the previous closing price.

53
TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVEREGE FOR GLAXO

Date Close Avg Date Close Avg


1-Jun-06 1076.55 27-Jun-06 966.1 96.61
2-Jun-06 1121 28-Jun-06 974.2 194.03
5-Jun-06 1085.8 29-Jun-06 985.2 292.55
6-Jun-06 1053.25 30-Jun-06 1037.3 396.28
7-Jun-06 1006 3-Jul-06 1054.15 501.695
8-Jun-06 972.85 4-Jul-06 1030 604.695
9-Jun-06 1042.8 5-Jul-06 1037.6 708.455
12-Jun-06 1038.95 6-Jul-06 1018.15 810.27
13-Jun-06 951.8 7-Jul-06 1026 912.87
14-Jun-06 958.95 1030.795 10-Jul-06 1049.15 1017.785
15-Jun-06 1038.85 1027.025 11-Jul-06 1062.7 1027.445
16-Jun-06 998.15 1014.74 12-Jul-06 1046.35 1034.66
19-Jun-06 986.5 1004.81 13-Jul-06 1032.9 1039.43
20-Jun-06 971.95 996.68 14-Jul-06 1009.15 1036.615
21-Jun-06 984.9 994.57 17-Jul-06 1006.1 1031.81
22-Jun-06 1013.75 998.66 18-Jul-06 1000.85 1028.895
23-Jun-06 1011 995.48 19-Jul-06 980.15 1023.15
25-Jun-06 1016.6 993.245 20-Jul-06 995.2 1020.855
26-Jun-06 972.35 995.3 21-Jul-06 983 1016.555

54
INTERPRETATION:

The moving averge for shows that it has buy signal at a point a,c,e and a
sell signal at point b,d.

TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR GLAXO

Date Close Sign Runs Date Close Sign Runs

55
1-Jun-06 1076.55 27-Jun-06 966.1 - 9
2-Jun-06 1121 + 1 28-Jun-06 974.2 +
5-Jun-06 1085.8 - 29-Jun-06 985.2 +
6-Jun-06 1053.25 - 30-Jun-06 1037.3 +
7-Jun-06 1006 - 3-Jul-06 1054.15 + 9
8-Jun-06 972.85 - 2 4-Jul-06 1030 - 10
9-Jun-06 1042.8 + 3 5-Jul-06 1037.6 + 11
12-Jun-06 1038.95 - 6-Jul-06 1018.15 - 12
13-Jun-06 951.8 - 4 7-Jul-06 1026 +
14-Jun-06 958.95 + 10-Jul-06 1049.15 +
15-Jun-06 1038.85 + 5 11-Jul-06 1062.7 + 13
16-Jun-06 998.15 - 12-Jul-06 1046.35 -
19-Jun-06 986.5 - 13-Jul-06 1032.9 -
20-Jun-06 971.95 - 6 14-Jul-06 1009.15 -
21-Jun-06 984.9 + 17-Jul-06 1006.1 -
22-Jun-06 1013.75 + 7 18-Jul-06 1000.85 -
23-Jun-06 1011 - 8 19-Jul-06 980.15 - 14
25-Jun-06 1016.6 + 8 20-Jul-06 995.2 + 15
26-Jun-06 972.35 - 21-Jul-06 983 - 16

56
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=16
n1=16
n2=22
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)
X=(2*16*22)/(16+22)+1
X=19.5263
2
σ 2
=[2*16*22(2*16*22-16-22)]/(16+22) (16+22-1)

σ =√ 8.7756
σ = 2.9624
Z=(16-19.5263)/2.9624
Z=-1.1904

INTERPRETATION:

Since the calculated value is -1.1904 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred

by chance.

TABLE SHOWING HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR GLAXO

Date High Low Close Date High Low Close


1-Jan-06 1179 1050 1076.55 27-Jun-06 980 936.2 966.1
2-Jun-06 1134.65 1036.1 1121 28-Jun-06 984 948 974.2
5-Jun-06 1166 1075 1085.8 29-Jun-06 1015 971.25 985.2
6-Jun-06 1080 1037 1053.25 30-Jun-06 1050 1009 1037.3
7-Jun-06 1054.75 995 1006 3-Jul-06 1063.9 1018 1054.15
8-Jun-06 1005 921 972.85 4-Jul-06 1057.8 1025 1030
9-Jun-06 1064 945.05 1042.8 5-Jul-06 1044 1022 1037.6
12-Jun-06 1074 975 1038.95 6-Jul-06 1035 1012 1018.15
13-Jun-06 996.95 935 951.8 7-Jul-06 1049 1019 1026
14-Jun-06 995 940 958.95 10-Jul-06 1054 1003.75 1049.15
15-Jun-06 1065 958 1038.85 11-Jul-06 1071.8 1028 1062.7
16-Jun-06 1095 901 998.15 12-Jul-06 1060.9 1031.2 1046.35
19-Jun-06 1087 961.15 986.5 13-Jul-06 1060 1028 1032.9
20-Jun-06 999 956.1 971.95 14-Jul-06 1038 1000 1009.15
21-Jun-06 999.8 970 984.9 17-Jul-06 1028.85 982.15 1006.1
22-Jun-06 1034 1005 1013.75 18-Jul-06 1034.9 991.2 1000.85
23-Jun-06 1020 962 1011 19-Jul-06 1019 978.25 980.15
25-Jun-06 1025 998 1016.6 20-Jul-06 1009 985.2 995.2
26-Jun-06 1030 962 972.35 21-Jul-06 1000 978 983

57
INTERPRIETATION:

The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on the
trading day.

58
TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR GLAXO

Date Price Date Price


25-Jun-06 1016.6 11-Jul-06 1062.7
26-Jun-06 972.35 12-Jul-06 1046.35
27-Jun-06 966.1 13-Jul-06 1032.9
28-Jun-06 974.2 14-Jul-06 1009.15
29-Jun-06 985.2 17-Jul-06 1006.1
30-Jun-06 1037.3 18-Jul-06 1000.85
3-Jul-06 1054.15 19-Jul-06 980.15
4-Jul-06 1030 20-Jul-06 995.2
5-Jul-06 1037.6 21-Jul-06 983
6-Jul-06 1018.15 24-Jul-06 998.1
7-Jul-06 1026 25-Jul-06 1023.2
10-Jul-06 1049.15 26-Jul-06 1017

INTERPRETATION:

The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR GLAXO

59
Date Price Date Price Date Price
9-Dec-05 1128.05 30-Dec-05 1121.75 23-Jan-06 1191.85
12-Dec-05 1120.25 2-Jan-06 1111.6 24-Jan-06 1234.35
13-Dec-05 1121.2 3-Jan-06 1180.8 25-Jan-06 1220.6
14-Dec-05 1121.1 4-Jan-06 1211.85 27-Jan-06 1275.1
15-Dec-05 1080.8 5-Jan-06 1231.9 30-Jan-06 1279.45
16-Dec-05 1098.9 6-Jan-06 1221.55 31-Jan-06 1282.8
19-Dec-05 1115.95 9-Jan-06 1231.05 1-Feb-06 1260.7
20-Dec-05 1105.5 10-Jan-06 1215.95 2-Feb-06 1273.8
21-Dec-05 1099.15 12-Jan-06 1201.35 3-Feb-06 1332.15
22-Dec-05 1111.5 13-Jan-06 1202.3 6-Feb-06 1390.75
23-Dec-05 1081.35 16-Jan-06 1211.35 7-Feb-06 1363.85
26-Dec-05 1060.8 17-Jan-06 1210.75 8-Feb-06 1351.75
27-Dec-05 1089.2 18-Jan-06 1214.45 10-Feb-06 1383.85
28-Dec-05 1100.75 19-Jan-06 1220.75 13-Feb-06 1380.7
29-Dec-05 1098.8 20-Jan-06 1206 14-Feb-06 1358

INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR GLAXO

60
Date Price Date Price Date Price
2-May-06 1392.75 22-May-06 1031.85 9-Jun-06 1042.8
3-May-06 1412.3 23-May-06 1107.75 12-Jun-06 1038.95
4-May-06 1420.95 24-May-06 1177.7 13-Jun-06 951.8
5-May-06 1430.95 25-May-06 1157.2 14-Jun-06 958.95
8-May-06 1471.75 26-May-06 1160.5 15-Jun-06 1038.85
9-May-06 1468.15 29-May-06 1157.8 16-Jun-06 998.15
10-May-06 1450.4 30-May-06 1151.25 19-Jun-06 986.5
11-May-06 1418.7 31-May-06 1130 20-Jun-06 971.95
12-May-06 1413.25 1-Jun-06 1076.55 21-Jun-06 984.9
15-May-06 1307.5 2-Jun-06 1121 22-Jun-06 1013.75
16-May-06 1279.9 5-Jun-06 1085.8 23-Jun-06 1011
17-May-06 1315.5 6-Jun-06 1053.25 25-Jun-06 1016.6
18-May-06 1205.6 7-Jun-06 1006 26-Jun-06 972.35
19-May-06 1102.75 8-Jun-06 972.85 27-Jun-06 966.1

INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

61
TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR GLAXO

Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jan-06 1179 1179 1050 1076.55 27-Jun-06 971 980 936.2 966.1
2-Jun-06 1050 1134.65 1036.1 1121 28-Jun-06 966.1 984 948 974.2
5-Jun-06 1166 1166 1075 1085.8 29-Jun-06 988.9 1015 971.25 985.2
6-Jun-06 1040 1080 1037 1053.25 30-Jun-06 1013.9 1050 1009 1037.3
7-Jun-06 1049.9 1054.75 995 1006 3-Jul-06 1037.3 1063.9 1018 1054.15
8-Jun-06 999 1005 921 972.85 4-Jul-06 1047.1 1057.8 1025 1030
9-Jun-06 990 1064 945.05 1042.8 5-Jul-06 1036 1044 1022 1037.6
12-Jun-06 1045 1074 975 1038.95 6-Jul-06 1035 1035 1012 1018.15
13-Jun-06 976 996.95 935 951.8 7-Jul-06 1025 1049 1019 1026
14-Jun-06 977 995 940 958.95 10-Jul-06 1003.75 1054 1003.75 1049.15
15-Jun-06 966 1065 958 1038.85 11-Jul-06 1059.7 1071.8 1028 1062.7
16-Jun-06 1065 1095 901 998.15 12-Jul-06 1060.9 1060.9 1031.2 1046.35
19-Jun-06 1087 1087 961.15 986.5 13-Jul-06 1030.1 1060 1028 1032.9
20-Jun-06 999 999 956.1 971.95 14-Jul-06 1038 1038 1000 1009.15
21-Jun-06 970 999.8 970 984.9 17-Jul-06 1001.1 1028.85 982.15 1006.1
22-Jun-06 1011.25 1034 1005 1013.75 18-Jul-06 1005 1034.9 991.2 1000.85
23-Jun-06 1000 1020 962 1011 19-Jul-06 1011.1 1019 978.25 980.15
25-Jun-06 998 1025 998 1016.6 20-Jul-06 1000 1009 985.2 995.2
26-Jun-06 1016.6 1030 962 972.35 21-Jul-06 1000 1000 978 983

62
INTERPRIETATION:

The candlestick for shows a white and black candle stick . It means
the opening price and the closing price of the stock is fluctuating.

63
TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVERGE FOR RANBAXY

Date Close Avg Date Close Avg


1-Jun-06 403.45 27-Jun-06 361.1 36.11
2-Jun-06 425.65 28-Jun-06 351.5 71.26
5-Jun-06 411.2 29-Jun-06 359.5 107.21
6-Jun-06 388.05 30-Jun-06 356.35 142.845
7-Jun-06 365.85 3-Jul-06 357.6 178.605
8-Jun-06 343.1 4-Jul-06 349.35 213.54
9-Jun-06 364.15 5-Jul-06 356.35 249.175
12-Jun-06 360.4 6-Jul-06 354.4 284.615
13-Jun-06 356.3 7-Jul-06 346.85 319.3
14-Jun-06 348.85 376.7 10-Jul-06 349.45 354.245
15-Jun-06 361.9 372.545 11-Jul-06 350.15 353.15
16-Jun-06 369.8 366.96 12-Jul-06 347.1 352.71
19-Jun-06 371.15 362.955 13-Jul-06 343.9 351.15
20-Jun-06 373.45 361.495 14-Jul-06 335.3 349.045
21-Jun-06 375.2 362.43 17-Jul-06 320.25 345.31
22-Jun-06 370.9 365.21 18-Jul-06 324.2 342.795
23-Jun-06 385.55 367.35 19-Jul-06 325.95 339.755
25-Jun-06 391.15 370.425 20-Jul-06 349.5 339.265
26-Jun-06 371.25 371.92 21-Jul-06 353.75 339.955

64
INTERPRETATION:

The moving averge shows the buy signal at point a and a sell signal at point
b.

65
TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR RANBAXY

Date Close Sign Runs Date Close Sign Runs


1-Jun-06 403.45 27-Jun-06 361.1 -
2-Jun-06 425.65 + 1 28-Jun-06 351.5 - 7
5-Jun-06 411.2 - 29-Jun-06 359.5 + 8
6-Jun-06 388.05 - 30-Jun-06 356.35 - 9
7-Jun-06 365.85 - 3-Jul-06 357.6 + 10
8-Jun-06 343.1 - 2 4-Jul-06 349.35 - 11
9-Jun-06 364.15 + 3 5-Jul-06 356.35 + 12
12-Jun-06 360.4 - 6-Jul-06 354.4 -
13-Jun-06 356.3 - 7-Jul-06 346.85 - 13
14-Jun-06 348.85 - 4 10-Jul-06 349.45 +
15-Jun-06 361.9 + 11-Jul-06 350.15 + 14
16-Jun-06 369.8 + 12-Jul-06 347.1 -
19-Jun-06 371.15 + 13-Jul-06 343.9 -
20-Jun-06 373.45 + 14-Jul-06 335.3 -
21-Jun-06 375.2 + 5 17-Jul-06 320.25 - 15
22-Jun-06 370.9 - 18-Jul-06 324.2 +
23-Jun-06 385.55 + 19-Jul-06 325.95 +
25-Jun-06 391.15 + 6 20-Jul-06 349.5 +
26-Jun-06 371.25 - 21-Jul-06 353.75 + 16

66
Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=16
n1=18
n2=20
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)

X=(2*18*20)/(18+20)+1
X=19.94736842
2
σ 2
=[2*18*20(2*18*20-18-20)]/(18+20) (18+20-1)

σ =√9.190686531
σ = 3.031614509
Z=(16-19.95)/3.032
Z=-1.3028

INTERPRETATION:

Since the calculated value is -1.30 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.

TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE OF RANBAXY

67
Date High Low Close Date High Low Close
1-Jun-06 420 399 403.45 27-Jun-06 374.95 358.5 361.1
2-Jun-06 429.9 396.15 425.65 28-Jun-06 365.5 348.1 351.5
5-Jun-06 432 408 411.2 29-Jun-06 362.6 354.25 359.5
6-Jun-06 402.5 384.55 388.05 30-Jun-06 369 353.25 356.35
7-Jun-06 392.95 348.5 365.85 3-Jul-06 362 355.7 357.6
8-Jun-06 361.8 340 343.1 4-Jul-06 360.5 348.55 349.35
9-Jun-06 371.7 340.15 364.15 5-Jul-06 359.95 342.35 356.35
12-Jun-06 386.3 357.3 360.4 6-Jul-06 360.5 351.1 354.4
13-Jun-06 361.6 352.25 356.3 7-Jul-06 357 345.1 346.85
14-Jun-06 366.9 343 348.85 10-Jul-06 353.8 345 349.45
15-Jun-06 364.4 352.1 361.9 11-Jul-06 353.8 347.1 350.15
16-Jun-06 381 365 369.8 12-Jul-06 351 343.3 347.1
19-Jun-06 375 355.1 371.15 13-Jul-06 355.65 342 343.9
20-Jun-06 382 365.05 373.45 14-Jul-06 343 334 335.3
21-Jun-06 380.5 370 375.2 17-Jul-06 339.7 317 320.25
22-Jun-06 386.4 360 370.9 18-Jul-06 330 318 324.2
23-Jun-06 389 366.1 385.55 19-Jul-06 330 323.05 325.95
25-Jun-06 395.35 385.55 391.15 20-Jul-06 354 329.25 349.5
26-Jun-06 396.95 364.1 371.25 21-Jul-06 355.9 346.3 353.75

68
INTERPRIETATION:

The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.

TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR RANBAXY

69
Date Close Date Close
1-Jun-06 403.45 27-Jun-06 361.1
2-Jun-06 425.65 28-Jun-06 351.5
5-Jun-06 411.2 29-Jun-06 359.5
6-Jun-06 388.05 30-Jun-06 356.35
7-Jun-06 365.85 3-Jul-06 357.6
8-Jun-06 343.1 4-Jul-06 349.35
9-Jun-06 364.15 5-Jul-06 356.35
12-Jun-06 360.4 6-Jul-06 354.4
13-Jun-06 356.3 7-Jul-06 346.85
14-Jun-06 348.85 10-Jul-06 349.45
15-Jun-06 361.9 11-Jul-06 350.15
16-Jun-06 369.8 12-Jul-06 347.1
19-Jun-06 371.15 13-Jul-06 343.9
20-Jun-06 373.45 14-Jul-06 335.3
21-Jun-06 375.2 17-Jul-06 320.25
22-Jun-06 370.9 18-Jul-06 324.2
23-Jun-06 385.55 19-Jul-06 325.95
25-Jun-06 391.15 20-Jul-06 349.5
26-Jun-06 371.25 21-Jul-06 353.75

70
INTERPRETATION:

The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

71
TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR RANBAXY

Date Price
25-Apr-06 481.15
26-Apr-06 477.1
27-Apr-06 470.05
28-Apr-06 471.85
29-Apr-06 472.5
2-May-06 521.8
3-May-06 513.25
4-May-06 508.8
5-May-06 511.45
8-May-06 505.95
9-May-06 505.3

INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

72
TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR RANBAXY

Date Price Date Price


29-Apr-06 472.5 16-May-06 477.55
2-May-06 521.8 17-May-06 489.65
3-May-06 513.25 18-May-06 459.4
4-May-06 508.8 19-May-06 429.7
5-May-06 511.45 22-May-06 428.3
8-May-06 505.95 23-May-06 446.6
9-May-06 505.3 24-May-06 433.7
10-May-06 505.1 25-May-06 419.3
11-May-06 493.5 26-May-06 425.45
12-May-06 491.9 29-May-06 422.2
15-May-06 480.2 30-May-06 419.45

INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

73
TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICEFOR RANBAXY

Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 420 420 399 403.45 27-Jun-06 365 374.95 358.5 361.1
2-Jun-06 400 429.9 396.15 425.65 28-Jun-06 358 365.5 348.1 351.5
5-Jun-06 429 432 408 411.2 29-Jun-06 354.25 362.6 354.25 359.5
6-Jun-06 400 402.5 384.55 388.05 30-Jun-06 365 369 353.25 356.35
7-Jun-06 390 392.95 348.5 365.85 3-Jul-06 357 362 355.7 357.6
8-Jun-06 361.1 361.8 340 343.1 4-Jul-06 359 360.5 348.55 349.35
9-Jun-06 360 371.7 340.15 364.15 5-Jul-06 347 359.95 342.35 356.35
12-Jun-06 369.35 386.3 357.3 360.4 6-Jul-06 355.35 360.5 351.1 354.4
13-Jun-06 355 361.6 352.25 356.3 7-Jul-06 356.5 357 345.1 346.85
14-Jun-06 359.45 366.9 343 348.85 10-Jul-06 346 353.8 345 349.45
15-Jun-06 354.9 364.4 352.1 361.9 11-Jul-06 349 353.8 347.1 350.15
16-Jun-06 365 381 365 369.8 12-Jul-06 348.65 351 343.3 347.1
19-Jun-06 371.3 375 355.1 371.15 13-Jul-06 348 355.65 342 343.9
20-Jun-06 370 382 365.05 373.45 14-Jul-06 340 343 334 335.3
21-Jun-06 370 380.5 370 375.2 17-Jul-06 339.7 339.7 317 320.25
22-Jun-06 383 386.4 360 370.9 18-Jul-06 318 330 318 324.2
23-Jun-06 372.9 389 366.1 385.55 19-Jul-06 325.2 330 323.05 325.95
INTERPRETATION:
25-Jun-06 390 395.35 385.55 391.15 20-Jul-06 332 354 329.25 349.5
26-Jun-06 395 396.95 364.1 371.25 21-Jul-06 352 355.9 346.3 353.75
The candlestick for shows a white and black candle stick . It means the
opening price and the closing price of the stock is fluctuating.

TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVEREGE FOR ICICI BANK

Date Close AVG Date Close AVG

1-Jun-06 534.3 27-Jun-06 498.6 49.86

2-Jun-06 551.95 28-Jun-06 488.9 98.75


5-Jun-06 538.1 29-Jun-06 479.05 146.655
6-Jun-06 542.7 30-Jun-06 487.9 195.445
7-Jun-06 533.25 3-Jul-06 489.1 244.355
8-Jun-06 498.85 4-Jul-06 490.35 293.39

74
9-Jun-06 500.35 5-Jul-06 499.9 343.38
12-Jun-06 474.2 6-Jul-06 485.55 391.935
13-Jun-06 459.65 7-Jul-06 498.95 441.83
14-Jun-06 451.2 508.455 10-Jul-06 493 491.13
15-Jun-06 482.55 503.28 11-Jul-06 487.95 490.065
16-Jun-06 506.7 498.755 12-Jul-06 488.3 490.005
19-Jun-06 501 495.045 13-Jul-06 495.75 491.675
20-Jun-06 490.45 489.82 14-Jul-06 485.9 491.475
21-Jun-06 494.4 485.935 17-Jul-06 477.25 490.29
22-Jun-06 512.25 487.275 18-Jul-06 472.6 488.515
23-Jun-06 508.05 488.045 19-Jul-06 467.75 485.3
25-Jun-06 507.2 491.345 20-Jul-06 492.05 485.95
26-Jun-06 490.75 494.455 21-Jul-06 484.75 484.53

75
INTERPRETATION:

The moving average shows the buy signal at point a and sell signal at point b.

TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR ICICI

Date Close Sign Run Date Close Sign Run


1-Jun-06 534.3 27-Jun-06 498.6 + 10
2-Jun-06 551.95 + 1 28-Jun-06 488.9 -

76
5-Jun-06 538.1 - 2 29-Jun-06 479.05 - 11
6-Jun-06 542.7 + 3 30-Jun-06 487.9 +
7-Jun-06 533.25 - 3-Jul-06 489.1 +
8-Jun-06 498.85 - 3 4-Jul-06 490.35 +
9-Jun-06 500.35 + 4 5-Jul-06 499.9 + 12
12-Jun-06 474.2 - 6-Jul-06 485.55 - 13
13-Jun-06 459.65 - 7-Jul-06 498.95 + 14
14-Jun-06 451.2 - 5 10-Jul-06 493 -
15-Jun-06 482.55 + 11-Jul-06 487.95 -
16-Jun-06 506.7 + 6 12-Jul-06 488.3 - 15
19-Jun-06 501 - 13-Jul-06 495.75 + 16
20-Jun-06 490.45 - 7 14-Jul-06 485.9 -
21-Jun-06 494.4 + 17-Jul-06 477.25 -
22-Jun-06 512.25 + 8 18-Jul-06 472.6 -
23-Jun-06 508.05 - 19-Jul-06 467.75 - 17
25-Jun-06 507.2 - 20-Jul-06 492.05 + 18
26-Jun-06 490.75 - 9 21-Jul-06 484.75 - 19

Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=19
n1=15
n2=23
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)
X=(2*19*19)/(19+19)+1
X=19.16
2
σ 2
=[2*19*19(2*19*19-19-19)]/(19+19) (19+19-1)

σ =√8.4203
σ = 2 . 9 0 18
Z=(19-19.96)/2.9018
Z=-0.0207

77
INTERPRETATION:

Since the calculated value is -0.55 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.

TABLE SHOWING HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR ICICI

Date High Low Close Date High Low Close


1-Jun- 28-Jun-
06 551 531.15 534.3 06 506.05 485 488.9
2-Jun- 28-Jun-
06 554 530 551.95 06 498 498 498
5-Jun- 29-Jun-
06 557 530 538.1 06 502 465.7 479.05
6-Jun- 30-Jun-
06 553.8 511.65 542.7 06 505 475 487.9
7-Jun-
06 543.7 524 533.25 3-Jul-06 518.35 485 489.1
7-Jun-
06 544 544 544 4-Jul-06 499 488.05 490.35
8-Jun-
06 531.55 490.25 498.85 5-Jul-06 503.7 488 499.9
9-Jun-
06 511 479 500.35 5-Jul-06 498 498 498
9-Jun-
06 485 485 485 6-Jul-06 495 482 485.55
12-Jun-
06 505 465 474.2 7-Jul-06 504 477 498.95
13-Jun- 10-Jul-
06 465.9 435 459.65 06 498 487 493
14-Jun- 11-Jul-
06 480 441.1 451.2 06 495 485 487.95
15-Jun- 12-Jul-
06 486.65 460.9 482.55 06 496 464.95 488.3
16-Jun- 13-Jul-
06 524.9 490 506.7 06 498 482.2 495.75
19-Jun- 14-Jul-
06 509.7 493 501 06 492 472.5 485.9
20-Jun- 17-Jul-
06 494.7 481.1 490.45 06 500 475.2 477.25
21-Jun- 18-Jul-
06 499.9 488.25 494.4 06 478 467.45 472.6
22-Jun- 19-Jul-
06 521.5 499.9 512.25 06 481.9 465.1 467.75
23-Jun- 20-Jul-
06 509.8 488 508.05 06 494.9 477.2 492.05
25-Jun- 20-Jul-
06 514 505 507.2 06 505 502 505
26-Jun- 513 486.55 490.75 21-Jul- 491.4 478.1 484.75

78
06 06

HIGH LOW CLOSE CHART FOR ICICI

600

550
E High
C
I 500 Low
R
P Close
450

400

DAT E

INTERPRIETATION:

The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.

79
TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR ICICI

Date Price Date Price Date Price


19-Aug-05 498.2 16-Sep-05 546.15 14-Oct-05 506.25
22-Aug-05 491.55 19-Sep-05 555.4 17-Oct-05 500.35
23-Aug-05 480.45 20-Sep-05 582.3 18-Oct-05 496.65
24-Aug-05 488.25 21-Sep-05 576.5 19-Oct-05 497.6
25-Aug-05 484.5 22-Sep-05 573.15 20-Oct-05 496.9
26-Aug-05 481.6 23-Sep-05 574.55 21-Oct-05 506.55
29-Aug-05 467.95 26-Sep-05 575.85 24-Oct-05 497.6
30-Aug-05 477.1 27-Sep-05 590.35 25-Oct-05 503.95
31-Aug-05 481.8 28-Sep-05 599.4 26-Oct-05 510.8
1-Sep-05 483.85 29-Sep-05 598.95 27-Oct-05 479.9
2-Sep-05 481.5 30-Sep-05 601.7 28-Oct-05 485.5
5-Sep-05 484.5 3-Oct-05 593.4 31-Oct-05 498.6
6-Sep-05 488 4-Oct-05 590.35 1-Nov-05 498.65
8-Sep-05 505.25 5-Oct-05 562.1 2-Nov-05 499.45
9-Sep-05 513.55 6-Oct-05 534.5 7-Nov-05 499.55
12-Sep-05 516.45 7-Oct-05 529.95 8-Nov-05 504.7
13-Sep-05 518.5 10-Oct-05 531.4 9-Nov-05 505.5
14-Sep-05 527.25 11-Oct-05 538.55 10-Nov-05 503.65
15-Sep-05 533.15 13-Oct-05 525.65 11-Nov-05 515.1

80
INTERPRETATION:

The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

81
TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR ICICI

Date Price Date Price


1-Sep-05 481.2 20-Sep-05 542.15
2-Sep-05 478.5 21-Sep-05 552
5-Sep-05 481.35 22-Sep-05 563.5
6-Sep-05 481.1 23-Sep-05 548.15
8-Sep-05 485 26-Sep-05 573.1
9-Sep-05 497.1 27-Sep-05 555.55
12-Sep-05 509 28-Sep-05 590.1
13-Sep-05 506.6 29-Sep-05 587
14-Sep-05 512.1 30-Sep-05 590.5
15-Sep-05 525 3-Oct-05 587.65
16-Sep-05 527 4-Oct-05 582
19-Sep-05 541 5-Oct-05 558.5

82
INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR ICICI

Date Price Date Price


2-May-06 621.95 21-May-06 568.9
3-May-06 649.1 22-May-06 558.95
4-May-06 659.9 23-May-06 563.75
5-May-06 638.2 24-May-06 569.3
8-May-06 634.55 25-May-06 569.9
9-May-06 639.15 1-Jun-06 537.5
10-May-06 660.75 2-Jun-06 534.3
11-May-06 662.55 5-Jun-06 551.95
12-May-06 636.05 6-Jun-06 538.1
13-May-06 619.3 7-Jun-06 542.7
14-May-06 618.6 8-Jun-06 533.25
15-May-06 626.05 9-Jun-06 498.85
16-May-06 593.75 12-Jun-06 500.35
17-May-06 555.45 13-Jun-06 474.2
18-May-06 553.15 14-Jun-06 459.65
19-May-06 577.35 15-Jun-06 451.2

83
INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR ICICI

Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close
1-Jun-06 542 551 531.15 534.3 25-Jun-06 514 514 505 507.2
2-Jun-06 532 554 530 551.95 26-Jun-06 507 513 486.55 490.75
5-Jun-06 553 557 530 538.1 27-Jun-06 500 505.85 481 498.6
6-Jun-06 532 553.8 511.65 542.7 28-Jun-06 497 506.05 485 488.9
7-Jun-06 524.1 543.7 524 533.25 28-Jun-06 498 498 498 498
7-Jun-06 544 544 544 544 29-Jun-06 493 502 465.7 479.05
8-Jun-06 531.55 531.55 490.25 498.85 30-Jun-06 494.4 505 475 487.9
9-Jun-06 496 511 479 500.35 3-Jul-06 499 518.35 485 489.1
9-Jun-06 485 485 485 485 4-Jul-06 495.4 499 488.05 490.35
12-Jun-06 502 505 465 474.2 5-Jul-06 492 503.7 488 499.9
13-Jun-06 465 465.9 435 459.65 5-Jul-06 498 498 498 498
14-Jun-06 465 480 441.1 451.2 6-Jul-06 494 495 482 485.55
15-Jun-06 464.05 486.65 460.9 482.55 7-Jul-06 491.2 504 477 498.95
16-Jun-06 490 524.9 490 506.7 10-Jul-06 496 498 487 493
19-Jun-06 498 509.7 493 501 11-Jul-06 490.5 495 485 487.95
20-Jun-06 493 494.7 481.1 490.45 12-Jul-06 485 496 464.95 488.3
21-Jun-06 494.7 499.9 488.25 494.4 13-Jul-06 488 498 482.2 495.75
22-Jun-06 499.9 521.5 499.9 512.25 14-Jul-06 482.2 492 472.5 485.9
23-Jun-06 509 509.8 488 508.05 17-Jul-06 500 500 475.2 477.25

84
25-Jun-06 514 514 505 507.2 18-Jul-06 477 478 467.45 472.6
26-Jun-06 507 513 486.55 490.75 19-Jul-06 476.1 481.9 465.1 467.75
27-Jun-06 500 505.85 481 498.6 20-Jul-06 477.2 494.9 477.2 492.05
28-Jun-06 497 506.05 485 488.9 20-Jul-06 502 505 502 505
28-Jun-06 498 498 498 498 21-Jul-06 491.4 491.4 478.1 484.75

85
INTERPRETATION:

The candlestick for shows a black candle stick . It means the opening
price of the stock is less than the previous closing price.

TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVERAGE FOR HDFC

Date Close avg Date Close avg

86
1-Jun-06 738.65 27-Jun-06 741.05 74.105
2-Jun-06 765.05 28-Jun-06 726.65 146.77
5-Jun-06 739.4 29-Jun-06 749.35 221.705
6-Jun-06 722.6 30-Jun-06 795.95 301.3
7-Jun-06 720.75 3-Jul-06 778.5 379.15
8-Jun-06 692.65 4-Jul-06 787.25 457.875
9-Jun-06 712.7 5-Jul-06 807.4 538.615
12-Jun-06 692.25 6-Jul-06 800 618.615
13-Jun-06 651.65 7-Jul-06 779.3 696.545
14-Jun-06 638.95 707.465 10-Jul-06 778.6 774.405
15-Jun-06 697.7 703.37 11-Jul-06 761.55 776.455
16-Jun-06 734.5 700.315 12-Jul-06 761.2 779.91
19-Jun-06 736.3 700.005 13-Jul-06 746.35 779.61
20-Jun-06 708.95 698.64 14-Jul-06 729.3 772.945
21-Jun-06 709.05 697.47 17-Jul-06 707.45 765.84
22-Jun-06 730.95 701.3 18-Jul-06 710.25 758.14
23-Jun-06 749.4 704.97 19-Jul-06 697.2 747.12
25-Jun-06 741.45 709.89 20-Jul-06 726.45 739.765
26-Jun-06 761.6 720.885 21-Jul-06 709.85 732.82

INTERPRETATION:

The moving averge for shows that it has buy signal at a point a and a sell
signal at point b.

87
TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR HDFC

Date Close Sign Runs Date Close Sign Runs

1-Jun-06 738.65 27-Jun-06 741.05 -


2-Jun-06 765.05 + 1 28-Jun-06 726.65 - 10
5-Jun-06 739.4 - 29-Jun-06 749.35 +
6-Jun-06 722.6 - 30-Jun-06 795.95 + 11
7-Jun-06 720.75 - 3-Jul-06 778.5 - 12
8-Jun-06 692.65 - 2 4-Jul-06 787.25 +
9-Jun-06 712.7 + 3 5-Jul-06 807.4 + 12
12-Jun-06 692.25 - 6-Jul-06 800 -
13-Jun-06 651.65 - 7-Jul-06 779.3 -
14-Jun-06 638.95 - 4 10-Jul-06 778.6 -
15-Jun-06 697.7 + 11-Jul-06 761.55 -
16-Jun-06 734.5 + 12-Jul-06 761.2 -
19-Jun-06 736.3 + 5 13-Jul-06 746.35 -
20-Jun-06 708.95 - 6 14-Jul-06 729.3 -
21-Jun-06 709.05 + 17-Jul-06 707.45 - 14
22-Jun-06 730.95 + 18-Jul-06 710.25 + 15
23-Jun-06 749.4 + 7 19-Jul-06 697.2 - 16
25-Jun-06 741.45 - 8 20-Jul-06 726.45 + 17
26-Jun-06 761.6 + 9 21-Jul-06 709.85 - 18

Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=18
n1=15
n2=23
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
σ 2 2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)
X=(2*15*23)/(15+23)+1
X=19.1579
2
σ 2
=[2*15*23(2*15*23-15-23)]/(15+23) (15+23-1)

σ =√8.4203
σ = 2 .9018
Z=(18-19.1579)/2.9018
Z=-0.3990

88
INTERPRETATION:

Since the calculated value is -0.55 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.

TABLE SHOWING HIGH LOW OPEN CLOSE PRICE FOR HDFC

Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close

1-Jun-06 760 772.5 733 738.65 27-Jun-06 750 759.9 731 741.05
2-Jun-06 740 775 734 765.05 28-Jun-06 775 775 722.05 726.65
5-Jun-06 763 774 730.1 739.4 29-Jun-06 740 761 731.15 749.35
6-Jun-06 735 735 715.25 722.6 30-Jun-06 755.1 814.8 755.1 795.95
7-Jun-06 721.7 729.7 710 720.75 3-Jul-06 800 800 771 778.5
8-Jun-06 711 725 640 692.65 4-Jul-06 780 789.95 780 787.25
9-Jun-06 687 720 661.25 712.7 5-Jul-06 780 816 778.05 807.4
12-Jun-06 717.9 727.85 665.15 692.25 6-Jul-06 800.5 804.95 787 800
13-Jun-06 671 677.85 640 651.65 7-Jul-06 802 809.95 751 779.3
14-Jun-06 648 672.8 615.2 638.95 10-Jul-06 771.1 780 763 778.6
15-Jun-06 644 724.8 644 697.7 11-Jul-06 775.05 775.05 755.05 761.55
16-Jun-06 710 766.5 710 734.5 12-Jul-06 680 772 680 761.2
19-Jun-06 704.5 740.1 704.5 736.3 13-Jul-06 756 765 742.65 746.35
20-Jun-06 720 727 700.25 708.95 14-Jul-06 746 746 715.6 729.3

89
21-Jun-06 715 717.1 702 709.05 17-Jul-06 730 730 702.25 707.45
22-Jun-06 744.8 760 725 730.95 18-Jul-06 705 714 701 710.25
23-Jun-06 704.8 750.5 702.6 749.4 19-Jul-06 712 719 692.1 697.2
25-Jun-06 762 762 734.5 741.45 20-Jul-06 711 740 711 726.45
26-Jun-06 725.25 772 725.25 761.6 21-Jul-06 715 727 705 709.85

INTERPRIETATION:

The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.

TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR HDFC

Date Price Date Price

3-Apr-06 773.85 19-Apr-06 848.5


4-Apr-06 832.85 20-Apr-06 850
5-Apr-06 841 21-Apr-06 848.65
7-Apr-06 817.7 24-Apr-06 822.4
10-Apr-06 825.3 25-Apr-06 824.65
12-Apr-06 809 26-Apr-06 837.05
13-Apr-06 803.95 27-Apr-06 824.2
17-Apr-06 814.6 28-Apr-06 817.35
18-Apr-06 834.45 29-Apr-06 825.8

90
INTERPRETATION:

The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR HDFC

Date Price Date Price

3-Apr-06 773.85 29-Apr-06 825.8


4-Apr-06 832.85 2-May-06 851.3
5-Apr-06 841 3-May-06 863.2
7-Apr-06 817.7 4-May-06 883.75
10-Apr-06 825.3 5-May-06 878.65
12-Apr-06 809 8-May-06 876.1
13-Apr-06 803.95 9-May-06 852.65
17-Apr-06 814.6 10-May-06 871.05
18-Apr-06 834.45 11-May-06 870.5
19-Apr-06 848.5 12-May-06 875.3
20-Apr-06 850 13-May-06 843.55
21-Apr-06 848.65 14-May-06 847.7
24-Apr-06 822.4 15-May-06 844.3
25-Apr-06 824.65 16-May-06 819.65
26-Apr-06 837.05 17-May-06 809.65

91
27-Apr-06 824.2 18-May-06 786.95
28-Apr-06 817.35 19-May-06 781.2

INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR HDFC

Date Price Date Price


27-Sep-05 682.25 17-Oct-05 654.4
28-Sep-05 696 18-Oct-05 657.75
29-Sep-05 696 19-Oct-05 647.65
30-Sep-05 685.15 20-Oct-05 643.9
3-Oct-05 676.65 21-Oct-05 647.65
4-Oct-05 709.9 24-Oct-05 635.5
5-Oct-05 702.65 25-Oct-05 630.65
6-Oct-05 682.05 26-Oct-05 630.1
7-Oct-05 678.55 27-Oct-05 624.6
10-Oct-05 688.25 28-Oct-05 610.95
11-Oct-05 689.8 31-Oct-05 606.65
13-Oct-05 677.9 1-Nov-05 629.45
14-Oct-05 659.4 2-Nov-05 620.7

92
INTERPRETATION:

The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR HDFC

Date Open High Low Close Date Open High Low Close

1-Jun-06 760 772.5 733 738.65 27-Jun-06 750 759.9 731 741.05
2-Jun-06 740 775 734 765.05 28-Jun-06 775 775 722.05 726.65
5-Jun-06 763 774 730.1 739.4 29-Jun-06 740 761 731.15 749.35
6-Jun-06 735 735 715.25 722.6 30-Jun-06 755.1 814.8 755.1 795.95
7-Jun-06 721.7 729.7 710 720.75 3-Jul-06 800 800 771 778.5
8-Jun-06 711 725 640 692.65 4-Jul-06 780 789.95 780 787.25
9-Jun-06 687 720 661.25 712.7 5-Jul-06 780 816 778.05 807.4
12-Jun-06 717.9 727.85 665.15 692.25 6-Jul-06 800.5 804.95 787 800
13-Jun-06 671 677.85 640 651.65 7-Jul-06 802 809.95 751 779.3
14-Jun-06 648 672.8 615.2 638.95 10-Jul-06 771.1 780 763 778.6
15-Jun-06 644 724.8 644 697.7 11-Jul-06 775.05 775.05 755.05 761.55
16-Jun-06 710 766.5 710 734.5 12-Jul-06 680 772 680 761.2
19-Jun-06 704.5 740.1 704.5 736.3 13-Jul-06 756 765 742.65 746.35
20-Jun-06 720 727 700.25 708.95 14-Jul-06 746 746 715.6 729.3
21-Jun-06 715 717.1 702 709.05 17-Jul-06 730 730 702.25 707.45
22-Jun-06 744.8 760 725 730.95 18-Jul-06 705 714 701 710.25

93
23-Jun-06 704.8 750.5 702.6 749.4 19-Jul-06 712 719 692.1 697.2
25-Jun-06 762 762 734.5 741.45 20-Jul-06 711 740 711 726.45
26-Jun-06 725.25 772 725.25 761.6 21-Jul-06 715 727 705 709.85

94
INTERPRETATION:

The candlestick for shows a white and black candle stick . It means
the opening price and the closing price of the stock is fluctuating.

CHAPTER:4-FINDINGS& SUGGESTIONS

FINDINGS

 The moving average of Infosys from the period 1st june 06 to 20st july
had shown the buy signal at 16th june and sell signal at 13 july.

 The run test for the Infosys shows that the runs are occurred by
chance.

95
 The high low close price for the Infosys is pointed through the high low
close chart.

 The sell and buy signal for the Infosys had shown through head and
shoulders.

 The up trend line for the Infosys shows an upward trend from 03/01/06
to 04/22/06.

 An Infosys shows a down ward trend from 06/02/2006 to 06/08/06 for


the study period.

 The candle sticks for the Infosys shows both the white, black and doby
candlesticks.

 The moving average for Wipro shows buy signal on 06/18/06 and a sell
signal at 06/25/06.

 The up trend line for the Wipro shows an upward trend from 04/15/06
to 06/24/06.

 A Wipro shows a down ward trend from 05/25/2006 to 06/12/06 for the
study period.

 The buy and sell signal for the Glaxo for the study period was shown
the moving average diagram.

 From the period 08/12/06 to 02/05/06 had shown an up trend for


Glaxo.

 A Glaxo shows a down ward trend from 05/03/2006 to 06/07/06 for the
study period.

 The moving average of Ranbaxy from the period 1st june 06 to 20st july
had shown the buy signal at 06/05/06 and sell signal at 06/25/06.

 From the period 04/26/06 to 05/21/06 had shown an up trend for


Ranbaxy.

96
 A Ranbaxy shows a down ward trend from 04/29/2006 to 05/31/06 for
the study period.

 The moving average of ICICI from the period 1st june 06 to 20st july had
shown the buy signal at 06/13/06 and sell signal at 06/22/06.

 The up trend line for the ICICI shows an upward trend from 09/11/06 to
10/06/06.

 An ICICI shows a down ward trend from 05/05/06 to 06/16/06 for the
study period.

 The moving average for HDFC shows buy signal on 06/17/06 and a
sell signal at 06/29/06.

 The up trend line for the HDFC shows an upward trend from 03/22/06
to 05/09/06.

 An HDFC shows a down ward trend from 09/13/06 to 10/28/06 for the
study period.

SUGGESTIONS

 When the moving average shows a flattening trend and the stock price
line falls through the moving average line the stock brokers or the

97
share holders should see that their should be sold off since it shows a
declining trend.

 In order to get an effective analysis it is better to prepare 200,400 days


moving average.

 If the up ward trend line is penetrating it better to sell the shares and if
the down ward trend line is penetrating it better to buy the shares.

 The breaking of the neckline on a decline from the right shoulder final
confirmation and completes head and shoulders top formation. This is,
there fore, a signal to sell short.

98
CONCLUSION

The equity share movements of the companies from the selected

sectors have been analysed hereby using the various tools of technical

analysis. Technical analysis has been very helpful in identifying and getting a

clear picture of the company’s equity price movements. It has also helped in

detecting the shift in demand and supply and as provided clues to future price

movements. Tools of technical analysis helped in identifying the trends of

price movements, which are helpful in aids in investment decision making.

CHAPTER:5-BIBILOGRAPHY

SECURITY ANALYSIS AND

PORTFOLIO MANAGENENT :
PANDIAN PUNITHAVATHY

TIMING THE MAREKET”THE BIBLE FOR

99
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS “ : ARNOLD MOURTIS,RAHFELDTT DAN
SECURITY ANALYSIS AND

PORTFOLIO MANAGENENT :FISHER E DONALD,JORDAN J


RONALD

www.nseindia.com

www.damodaran.com

business line

economic lines

100

Você também pode gostar