Landeskunde GB Greenhouse effect in Britain

Britain the new

sunshine state?
Within the lifetime of todays
children, South-East England could
5enjoy a semi-Mediterranean climate
as average temperatures increase by
more than 6 degrees Fahrenheit. The
garden of England could become its
sunporch, and farming could boom in
10the North.
These are the benefits which Britain
could enjoy thanks to the greenhouse
effect, according to evidence collected
15by a United Nations team. The evidence
is being compiled by a working group
of the UN-backed Intergovernmental
Panel of Climate Change as part of the
most important study ever prepared on
20the effects of global warming.
The data shows that there may be
important shifts in the balance of power
as the changing climate affects
agriculture. Harvests could decline so
25much in North America that it would
stop being the worlds bread basket.
Professor Martin Parry of Birmingham University stresses that it is not yet
possible to make firm predictions. But
30some trends are beginning to emerge as
the most likely, given our present state
of knowledge. Professor Parrys group
is looking at what the world may be like
when the effect of carbon dioxide and
35other polluting gases on warming the
globe has doubled a point expected to
be reached around the year 2040.
Britain will warm more than the
global average, because the greenhouse
40effect will heat up cooler regions faster
than the tropics. South-East England

could become like todays south-western France, with warmer, drier summers
and warmer, but wetter winters. Huge
45golden fields of sunflowers could
flourish across southern England.
And if the warming continues, Britain
could grow its own baked beans: at
present they all have to be imported.
50But the South could also suffer more
frequent droughts and present forms of
farming would suffer. There would be
probably more thunderstorms. And
although it may enjoy the climate of
55Biarritz, the beaches are likely to disappear as sea levels rise.
The North of England could be
wetter both in winter and in summer.
But agriculture would flourish as the
60growing season lengthened and the
northern farmers could grow richer.
Even countries that benefit from
global warming are likely to go through
social dislocations as their agriculture
65and economies adapt to new conditions.
And it is unlikely to stop here. If
urgent steps are not taken to control
pollution, the world will get hotter still;
southern England could move through a
70brief period of Mediterranean type
climate to an age of devastating
droughts.
[Adapted from THE OBSERVER, Nov.
26, 1989; 405 words.]

hm-abo Januar 1990