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Influence of regression model and incremental test

protocol on the relationship between lactate threshold
using the maximal-deviation method and performance
in female runners
a

Fabiana Andrade Machado , Fbio Yuzo Nakamura & Solange Marta Franzi De Moraes
a

Department of Physical Education, State University of Maringa, Maring, Brazil

Department of Physical Education, State University of Londrina, Londrina, Brazil

Department of Physiologic Sciences, State University of Maringa, Maring, Brazil

Published online: 10 Jul 2012.

To cite this article: Fabiana Andrade Machado , Fbio Yuzo Nakamura & Solange Marta Franzi De Moraes (2012)
Influence of regression model and incremental test protocol on the relationship between lactate threshold using the
maximal-deviation method and performance in female runners, Journal of Sports Sciences, 30:12, 1267-1274, DOI:
10.1080/02640414.2012.702424
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2012.702424

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Journal of Sports Sciences, August 2012; 30(12): 12671274

Influence of regression model and incremental test protocol on the

relationship between lactate threshold using the maximal-deviation
method and performance in female runners

BIO YUZO NAKAMURA2, &

FABIANA ANDRADE MACHADO1, FA
I DE MORAES3
SOLANGE MARTA FRANZO

Downloaded by [USP University of Sao Paulo] at 09:31 11 September 2013

State University of Maringa, Department of Physical Education, Maringa, Brazil, 2State University of Londrina,
Department of Physical Education, Londrina, Brazil, and 3State University of Maringa, Department of Physiologic Sciences,
Maringa, Brazil
(Accepted 30 May 2012)

Abstract
This study examined the influence of the regression model and initial intensity of an incremental test on the relationship
between the lactate threshold estimated by the maximal-deviation method and the endurance performance. Sixteen noncompetitive, recreational female runners performed a discontinuous incremental treadmill test. The initial speed was set
at 7 km  h71, and increased every 3 min by 1 km  h71 with a 30-s rest between the stages used for earlobe capillary
blood sample collection. Lactate-speed data were fitted by an exponential-plus-constant and a third-order polynomial
equation. The lactate threshold was determined for both regression equations, using all the coordinates, excluding the
first and excluding the first and second initial points. Mean speed of a 10-km road race was the performance index
(3.04 + 0.22 m  s71). The exponentially-derived lactate threshold had a higher correlation (0.98  r  0.99) and
smaller standard error of estimate (SEE) (0.04  SEE  0.05 m  s71) with performance than the polynomially-derived
equivalent (0.83  r  0.89; 0.10  SEE  0.13 m  s71). The exponential lactate threshold was greater than the
polynomial equivalent (P 5 0.05). The results suggest that the exponential lactate threshold is a valid
performance index that is independent of the initial intensity of the incremental test and better than the polynomial
equivalent.

Keywords: Dmax, endurance, exponential-plus-constant, third-order polynomial

Introduction
The lactate threshold has been used widely to predict
endurance performance, prescribe training intensity
and evaluate training effects (Allen, Seals, Hurley,
Ehsani, & Hagberg, 1985; Billat, 1996; Papadopoulos, Doyle, & Labudde, 2006). There are several
techniques that can detect lactate thresholds (Davis,
Rozenek, DeCicco, Carizzi, & Pham, 2007; Tokmakidis, Leger, & Pilianidis, 1998; Thomas, Costes,
Chatagnon, Pouilly, & Busso, 2008). Specifically, the
maximal-deviation method (Dmax) proposed by
Cheng et al. (1992) can evaluate mechanisms that
underpin long-distance running and cycling performance. In most studies, lactate threshold determined
by the maximal-deviation method was more highly
correlated with performance than the lactate threshold values determined by other methods (Bishop,

Jenkins, & Mackinnon, 1998; Machado, de Moraes,

Peserico, Mezzaroba, & Higino, 2011; Nicholson &
Sleivert, 2001; Papadopoulos et al., 2006). Additionally, according to Morton, Stannard, and Kay
(2012), the lactate threshold determined by the
maximal-deviation method was the only one of seven
markers that was highly reproducible and could be
used alone to identify small but meaningful changes
in training status with sufficient statistical power.
The maximal-deviation method is an objective
and graphical technique that identifies the point on a
lactate-intensity regression curve that is furthest
away from a straight line which connects the first
and last points of that curve. As the distance is
calculated perpendicularly from the line drawn
between the datum points, increasing the initial
intensity of an incremental exercise test leads to an
apparently higher lactate threshold (Janeba, Yaeger,

Correspondence: Fabiana Andrade Machado, State University of Maringa, Department of Physical Education, Av.Colombo, 5790, Block M 06, Maringa,
87020900 Brazil. E-mail:famachado_uem@hotmail.com
ISSN 0264-0414 print/ISSN 1466-447X online 2012 Taylor & Francis
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2012.702424

Downloaded by [USP University of Sao Paulo] at 09:31 11 September 2013

1268

F. A. Machado et al.

White, & Stavrianeas, 2010). However, it remains

unclear whether this procedure affects the relationship between the lactate threshold and endurance
performance.
Additionally, the influence of the choice of
regression model on the lactate threshold estimate
is not known. The third-order polynomial equation
was adopted originally by Cheng et al. (1992) in
the development of the maximal-deviation method.
Bishop et al. (1998) also used this form of
equation to determine the lactate threshold, but
Nicholson and Sleivert (2001), for example, used
the exponential-plus-constant model, which is
supposed to improve the sensitivity with which
physiological changes in blood lactate concentration during progressive exercise can be investigated
(Hughson, Weisiger, & Swanson, 1987). The
major drawback of the third-order polynomial
model is that there is no theoretical justification
for its use to describe lactate responses and
adaptations to exercise.
As the lactate threshold determined by the maximal-deviation method was the most highly correlated with performance and was the only highly
reproducible lactate threshold estimate in previous
studies, it is important to investigate both the
influence of the regression model and initial intensity
of the incremental test on the relationship between
the lactate threshold and performance. To our
knowledge, no previous study has investigated these
aspects of the maximal-deviation method. We
hypothesised that the impact of the initial intensity
on the relationship between the lactate threshold
determined by the maximal-deviation method and
the endurance performance will be smaller using an
exponential-plus-constant than a third-order polynomial model. Thus, this study was conducted to
examine the influence of the regression model and
initial intensity of the incremental test on the
relationship between the lactate threshold determined by the maximal-deviation method and endurance performance.

Methods
Participants
Sixteen non-competitive, recreational female runners
of local standard with a minimum of two years of
training experience volunteered to take part in this
study. Of these, 13 completed the entire study and
10 were included for analysis. The 10-km running
times of the participants were between 45 and
65 min, with a pace between 2.5 and 3.5 m  s71
(*4560% of the world record). Characteristics of
the participants (n 16) were age 42.2 + 7.5 years,
stature 1.63 + 0.03 m, body mass 57.3 + 6.6 kg,

body mass index 21.6 + 2.1 kg  m72, body fat

20.4 + 4.1% and maximal oxygen uptake
53.2 + 8.0 mL  kg71  min71. The training characteristics of the participants (mean + s) were
experience 3.1 + 1.9 years, frequency 2.6 + 0.5
days  week71 and distance 24.9 + 6.0 km 
week71. The experimental protocol was approved
by the local Ethics Committee (# 719/2010).
Incremental exercise test
Participants performed a discontinuous incremental
exercise test on a motorised treadmill (INBRASPORT ATL, Porto Alegre, Brazil) with the
gradient set at 1%. Participants were instructed to
avoid consuming food 2 h before the maximal
exercise test, and to abstain from caffeine and
alcohol and to refrain from strenuous exercise for
48 h prior to testing. After a 5-min warm-up at
5 km  h71, the initial treadmill speed was set at
7 km  h71, and this speed was increased by 1 km 
h71 between each of the 3-min successive stages.
Each stage was separated by a 30-s period of rest,
during which an earlobe capillary blood sample
(25 mL) was collected into a glass tube; from these
samples, using single analysis, blood lactate was
determined by electroenzymatic methods (YSI
1500, Ohio, USA). Prior to operation, the YSI
1500 was calibrated using a 5 and a 15 mmol  L71
lactate standard solution according to the manufacturers instructions. Throughout the tests, pulmonary gas-exchange variables were determined using a
portable gas analyser (MedGraphics VO2000, St.
Paul, USA). Before each test, the VO2000 was
calibrated according to the manufacturers instructions, which consisted of performing an autocalibration routine on the oxygen (accuracy +
0.1%) and carbon dioxide (accuracy + 0.2%)
analysers using room air and proprietary software.
Heart rate was also continuously recorded throughout the tests (Polar, Kempele, Finland). The 620
Borg scale (Borg, 1982) was used to measure the
rating of perceived exertion during the test. Each
participant was encouraged to give maximum effort
until volitional exhaustion. The maximal effort was
deemed to be achieved if the incremental test met
three of the following criteria: 1) a plateau in oxygen
uptake with increases in speed (difference in oxygen
uptake  150 mL  min71), 2) the highest respiratory exchange ratio  1.15, 3) blood lactate
concentration higher than 8 mmol  L71, 4) the
highest heart rate within + 10 beats  min71 of agepredicted maximum heart rate (220-age) and 5)
maximal perception of effort greater than 18 in the
620 Borg rating of perceived exertion scale (British
Association of Sport Sciences, 1988; Howley,
Bassett Jr, & Welch, 1995).

Influence of regression model on Dmax

Determination of the lactate threshold from the
exponential-plus-constant regression equation
The lactate threshold was determined for each
participant from the blood lactate concentration
(mmol  L71) and speed (m  s71) data obtained
from the incremental exercise test (Cheng et al.,
1992). The data were fitted by the exponential
regression curve (Hughson et al., 1987):

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LAs a b  expc  s

where s is the speed in m  s71, and [LA](s) is the

blood lactate concentration (mmol  L71) as a function of speed (m  s71); a, b and c are the function
parameters that were determined by non-linear
regression with Statistical Package for the Social
Sciences (SPSS) 17.0 software (SPSS Inc., USA).
The point on the regression curve that yielded the
maximal perpendicular distance to the straight line
connecting the first and last point of this curve was
considered to be the speed at the lactate threshold
determined by the maximal-deviation method
(Figure 1).
The maximal perpendicular distance, which represents the exponential lactate threshold, occurs at
the point where the slope of the exponential-plusconstant curve is equal to the slope of the straight
line that connects the first and last point of this
curve. Because the slope of the curve is obtained
from the first derivative of the exponential-plusconstant equation, the following equation was used:
exponential lactate threshold
flnfexpc  sf  expc  si =c  sf  c  si gg=c
2
where ln is the natural logarithm, c is the
parameter of the exponential-plus-constant equation
and si and sf are the initial and final speeds of the

1269

incremental exercise test, respectively. The final

speed was considered to be that of the last
completed stage.
Determination of the lactate threshold from the thirdorder polynomial regression equation
The lactate threshold was determined for each
participant from the blood lactate concentration
(mmol  L71) and speed (m  s71) data obtained
from the incremental exercise test (Cheng et al.,
1992). The data were fitted by the third-order
polynomial regression curve (Cheng et al.,
1992):
LAs d0 d1  s d2  s2 d3  s3

where s is the speed in m  s71, and [LA](s) is the

blood lactate concentration (mmol  L71) as a
function of speed (m  s71); d0, d1, d2 and d3 are
parameters that were determined by non-linear
regression with the SPSS 17.0 software (SPSS Inc.,
USA).
The polynomial lactate threshold occurs at the
point where the slope of the third-order polynomial
curve is equal to the slope of the straight line that
connects the first and last points of this curve.
Because the slope of the curve is obtained from the
first derivative of the polynomial equation, the
following equation was used:
polynomial lactate threshold
n

 o
d2 d22  3  d3 d1  D
= 3  d 3

where d1, d2 and d3 are the function parameters of

the third-order polynomial equation. Delta (D) is the
slope of the straight line connecting the first and last
points of this curve:

Figure 1. Lactate threshold determined by the maximal-deviation method from the exponential-plus-constant (left) and third-order
polynomial (right) models for one participant. The calculated lactate threshold was different for the same data: 3.4 m  s71 (exponentialplus-constant) and 3.2 m  s71 (third-order polynomial).

1270

F. A. Machado et al.


D LAfinal LAinitial =sf  si

where [LA]initial and [LA]final are the initial and

final lactate concentrations estimated by the thirdorder polynomial equation ([LA](s) d0 d1s
d2s2 d3s3) for the initial (si) and final (sf) speeds,
respectively.

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Influence of the initial speed of the incremental test

To examine the influence of the initial speed of the
incremental test on the relationship between the
lactate threshold determined by the maximal-deviation method and performance, speed at the lactate
threshold was determined in three ways: 1) using all
the coordinates, 2) excluding the first point and 3)
excluding the first and second points. This procedure simulates varying the initial intensity of the
incremental test.
Relationship between the lactate threshold and
performance
All of the participants in this study competed the
same local 10-km road race, that took place within
one month period of laboratory testing. The
participants continued their regular training (frequency 2.6 + 0.5 day  week71 and distance
24.9 + 6.0 km  week71) between the test and the
race. This local race takes place annually in April on
the paved streets of the city, and local runners direct
their training to have optimal performance in this
competition. The race began at 17:00 h on a sunny
day with relatively low humidity (approximately
40%) and a temperature of 308C. There were three
hydration points along the course of the race.
Participants were encouraged to give their best
performance. Three runners had problems during
the race and did not finish. The race times of the
remaining runners were recorded, and their mean
10-km running speed from the road race was
calculated in m  s71. Thereafter, the relationship
between 10-km running speed and variations of the
lactate threshold were examined.
Statistical analyses
Data are presented as the mean + s. Data were
analysed using SPSS 17.0 software (SPSS Inc.,
USA). The Shapiro-Wilk test verified normality of
the data distributions. The speeds were compared
using one-way within-groups analysis of variance
(ANOVA) with a Bonferroni post hoc test. The
relationship between the speeds was examined using
Pearsons correlation coefficient. The standard error
of estimate (SEE) and the relative SEE, i.e. (SEE
expressed as a percentage of the mean of the outcome

measure) were used to examine the relationship

between the lactate threshold and 10-km road-race
performance. Additionally, the exponentially- and
polynomially-derived lactate thresholds were compared by the technical error of measurement (TEM).
The magnitude of differences (effect size) was
calculated for significant differences and was interpreted as small ( 0.2), moderate (*0.5) and large (
0.8) according to Cohen (1988). Statistical significance was set at P 5 0.05.
Results
Three of the 13 participants who finished the entire
study completed just six stages in the incremental
test and were not included in the results to avoid
determining the lactate threshold excluding the first
and second points with only four points. The physical
and training characteristics (mean + s) of the remaining participants (n 10) were age 41.2 +
6.2 years, height 1.63 + 0.03 m, body mass
57.5 + 4.8 kg, body mass index 21.6 + 1.9 kg 
m72, body fat 20.8 + 3.9%, experience 3.3 + 1.6
years, training frequency 2.7 + 0.5 days  week71
and distance 23.3 + 5.6 km  week71.
Maximal effort indices (mean + s) are as follows
(n 10): maximal oxygen uptake 55.0 + 5.5 mL 
kg71  min71, respiratory exchange ratio 1.13 +
0.10, peak blood lactate concentration 7.3 +
2.3 mmol  L71, 620 Borg rating of perceived
exertion 18.8 + 1.5 and maximum heart rate
187 + 10 beats  min71. All of the participants
met at least three of the maximum-effort criteria.
Mean performance time during the 10-km road
race was 55:03 + 03:50 (min:s). The participants
finished the race in between 49 and 60 min.
Mean speed during the road race was 3.04 +
0.22 m  s71.
Table I presents the exponential and polynomial
lactate threshold values (m  s71) and their relationships with the 10-km road-race performance. The
exponential lactate threshold was greater when the
initial points were excluded. The exponential lactate
threshold excluding the first and second points was
greater than the exponential lactate threshold using
all the coordinates (P 5 0.05; effect size 4.5),
exponential lactate threshold excluding the first point
(P 5 0.05; effect size 4.3) and polynomial lactate
threshold excluding the first and second points
(P 5 0.05; effect size 1.2). Furthermore, the
exponential lactate threshold excluding the first point
(m  s71) was greater than the exponential lactate
threshold using all the coordinates (P 5 0.05; effect
size 4.3) and polynomial lactate threshold excluding the first point (P 5 0.05; effect size 1.4).
Additionally, the exponential lactate threshold using
all the coordinates was significantly higher than the

Influence of regression model on Dmax

1271

Table I. Relationship between the lactate threshold using the maximal-deviation method and 10-km road-race performance (n 10)
Exponential

Protocol
All the coordinates
Exclusion of the
first point
Exclusion of the
first and second points

Polynomial

Lactate threshold
(m  s71)

SEE
(m  s71)

SEE (%)

Lactate threshold
(m  s71)

SEE
(m  s71)

SEE
(%)

3.11 + 0.21{
3.20 + 0.20{{

0.98**
0.99**

0.05
0.04

1.5%
1.3%

2.96 + 0.30
2.98 + 0.30

0.89**
0.89**

0.10
0.10

3.4%
3.4%

3.28 + 0.18{{{

0.98**

0.04

1.3%

3.07 + 0.29#

0.83*

0.13

4.2%

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Note: r, Pearsons correlation coefficient; SEE, standard error of estimate; SEE (%), standard error of estimate expressed as a percentage of
mean speed for the road race; {P 5 0.05 for the polynomial (using all the coordinates); {{P 5 0.05 for the exponential (using all the
coordinates) and polynomial (excluding the first point); {{{P 5 0.05 for the exponential (using all the coordinates and excluding the first
point) and polynomial (excluding the first and second points); #P 5 0.05 for the polynomial (using all the coordinates and excluding the
first point); *Statistical significance is P 5 0.01; **Statistical significance is P 5 0.001.

polynomial lactate threshold using all the coordinates

(P 5 0.05; effect size 1.0). The regression model
(exponential-plus-constant versus third-order polynomial) influenced the apparent lactate threshold, in
which the exponential lactate threshold was greater
than the polynomial equivalent (P 5 0.01). The
initial intensity of the incremental test also influenced the identified lactate threshold (P 5 0.001),
producing higher values for the lactate threshold with
the exclusion of the initial points. Thus, the
regression model and the initial intensity of the
incremental test affected the lactate threshold
intensity.
The correlation between the exponential lactate
threshold and the 10-km road-race performance was
high (0.98  r  0.99; P 5 0.001), and the correlation was practically unaltered by excluding the first
or the first and second points. The correlation
between the polynomial lactate threshold and the
10-km road-race performance was systematically
smaller than the correlation between the exponential
lactate threshold and the 10-km road-race performance and decreased slightly from 0.89 (polynomial
lactate threshold using all the coordinates) to 0.83
(polynomial lactate threshold excluding the first and
second points). Additionally, although the mean
difference (bias) between the exponential lactate
threshold and the 10-km road-race performance
increased with the exclusion of the initials points,
the standard error of estimate remained practically
unchanged (0.040.05 m  s71), independent of the
initial intensity of the incremental test. The standard
error of estimate for the relationship between the
polynomial lactate threshold and 10-km road-race
performance was greater than that for the exponential lactate threshold.
The exponential lactate thresholds using all the
coordinates, excluding the first point and excluding
the first and second points were highly correlated
with each other (0.99  r  1.00; P 5 0.001),

indicating high inter-correlation between the exponential lactate threshold indices. The inter-correlation between the polynomial lactate threshold indices
was high (0.96  r  0.98; P 5 0.001) but slightly
smaller than the inter-correlation between the
exponential lactate threshold indices. The correlations between exponential and polynomial lactate
threshold using all the coordinates (r 0.88;
P 5 0.001), excluding the first point (r 0.89;
P 5 0.001) and excluding the first and second
points (r 0.81; P 5 0.01) were not as high as the
intra-modelling method indices. The absolute and
relative technical errors of measurement between
exponential- and polynomial-derived lactate thresholds using all the coordinates (0.15 m  s71; 4.9%),
excluding the first point (0.18 m  s71; 5.9%) and
excluding the first and second points (0.19 m  s71;
6.1%) were greater than the coefficient of variation
(CV) of the maximal-deviation method reported by
Morton, Stannard, and Kay (2012) during incremental exercises on a cycle ergometer (CV 3.8%).
Figure 2 illustrates the relationships between 10-km
road-race performance lactate threshold for the
exponential-plus-constant (left) and third-order polynomial (right) regression equations. The relationship
(left) was systematically shifted to the right when the
initial points were excluded, but the correlation
between road-race performance and the exponential
lactate threshold remained practically unchanged.
The relationship (right) was also shifted to the right
for the third-order polynomial equation, but the
points were not as clustered around the regression
line as for the 10-km road-race performance and
exponential lactate threshold relationship (left).
Discussion
The major findings of this study were that the
polynomial lactate threshold underestimated the
equivalent exponentially-determined lactate threshold

1272

F. A. Machado et al.

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Figure 2. Plots of 10-km road-race performance versus lactate threshold estimated by the maximal-deviation method indices from the
exponential-plus-constant (left) and third-order polynomial (right) models (n 10).

for all conditions involving original or excluded initial

intensities. Moreover, the exponential lactate threshold had higher correlation and smaller standard error
of the estimate with 10-km road-race performance
than the polynomial lactate threshold. Additionally,
the correlation between the exponential lactate threshold and the 10-km road-race performance was nearly
independent of the initial intensity of the incremental
test.
The maximal-deviation method is a graphical
technique that depends on the shape of the lactateintensity curve and the initial and final intensities of
that curve. The final intensity can be controlled by
guaranteeing that maximum effort has been exerted
(e.g., strong verbal encouragement). The traditional
criteria to check for maximal effort are a plateau in
oxygen uptake despite a continued increase in
exercise intensity, high concentrations of blood
lactate in the minutes after the exercise test (peak
blood lactate  8.0 mmol  L71), a respiratory exchange ratio greater than 1.15, a final heart rate
within + 10 beats  min71 of age-predicted maximum and a rating of perceived exertion greater than
18 in Borgs 620 scale (British Association of Sport
Sciences, 1988; Howley et al., 1995). Using these
criteria, it is unlikely that researchers, coaches and
practitioners will not achieve the maximum lactate
point. Nevertheless, the lactate threshold as determined by the maximal-deviation method requires
athletes to exert maximally during an incremental
test. In some cases, athletes are limited in their ability
to do so (Marcora, Bosio, & de Morree, 2008;
Marcora, Staiano, & Manning, 2009). Therefore, the
method can fail to determine the lactate threshold.
Thus, as a practical application, athletes should use
another method to estimate the lactate threshold
when they do not meet the maximum physiological
and perceived effort criteria. Accordingly, the effects
of acute changes in the final lactate point by
experimental manipulations (e.g., muscle fatigue or
mental fatigue (Marcora et al., 2008, 2009) should
be tested in the future.

Appropriate setting of the initial intensity of the

incremental test is highly dependent on the experience of the researchers, coaches and practitioners.
Unfortunately, for the maximal-deviation method,
there is no standard for determining this intensity.
This is the main shortcoming of the maximaldeviation method because it is known that the lactate
threshold increases with an increase in the initial
intensity of the incremental test (Janeba et al., 2010).
The lactate threshold increased systematically when
initial points were excluded both for the exponentialplus-constant and third-order polynomial regression
models. Thus, the lactate threshold determined by
the maximal-deviation method is dependent on the
initial intensity of the incremental test, and exclusion
of the initial points will increase the apparent lactate
threshold. Additionally, the regression model (exponential-plus-constant versus third-order polynomial) influenced the identified lactate threshold. The
polynomially-derived lactate threshold was lower
than the exponentially-derived equivalent. Figure 1
shows the exponential and polynomial lactate threshold from one participant in whom the polynomial
lactate threshold underestimated the exponential
lactate threshold by 5.9% (0.2 m  s71).
The occurrence of a unique threshold point over
the range of the lactate-intensity curve was questioned by Tokmakidis et al. (1998), who reported
that various lactate threshold indices were well
correlated with performance. For example, they
found that intensities equivalent to a blood lactate
concentration of 4 mmol  L71 did not have a higher
correlation with performance than 5, 6, 7 or even
8 mmol  L71. That does not mean that a fixed
lactate concentration of 5 or 8 mmol  L71 can be
used in training despite its high correlation with
performance, but rather suggests that these points
can be used as valid performance markers. In
contrast to the variation in lactate threshold (using
the maximal-deviation method) with the initial
intensity, the correlation and standard error of
estimate between the lactate threshold and the

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Influence of regression model on Dmax

performance was little changed when the initial
points of the incremental test were excluded. This
outcome occurred mainly with the exponential
lactate threshold, for which the correlation with 10km road-race performance remained high. The
correlation between the polynomial lactate threshold
and road-race performance was less than that
between the exponential lactate threshold and the
10-km road-race performance. Thus, the exponential
lactate threshold can be considered a consistent and
valid performance index because it remained nearly
unchanged when the initial points were excluded.
Bishop et al. (1998) compared lactate threshold
estimations. The lactate threshold estimated by the
maximal-deviation method was the most highly
correlated with performance. The group examined
six commonly used lactate measures in trained
female cyclists. Mean power output for a 1-h cycling
challenge was 183 + 19 W, and the polynomial
lactate threshold using the maximal-deviation method was 178 + 24 W. Of the six lactate measures
compared, power output at the polynomial lactate
threshold using the maximal-deviation method was
most highly correlated with the 1 h challenge
(r 0.84; P 5 0.001), followed by the lactate
threshold at 4 mmol  L71 (r 0.81; P 5 0.001)
and peak power output (r 0.81; P 5 0.001).
Because Bishop et al. (1998) used the third-order
polynomial regression model, we believe that this
high correlation would have been even higher if they
had used the exponential-plus-constant model.
Considering that ours is the first study to examine
the relationship between equations and lactate
threshold estimations with performance, further
studies will be necessary to confirm this trend.
The standard error of estimate between the
exponential lactate threshold and the 10-km roadrace performance remained practically unchanged
when the initial points were excluded. The standard
error of estimate was substantially smaller for the
relationship between the exponential lactate threshold and 10-km road-race performance than for the
polynomial lactate threshold equivalent. Once the
data are fitted to the equation to generate the least
sum-of-squares error, the third-order polynomial
equation will be adjusted to the minimum error
irrespective of the physiological meaning of the
lactate response to exercise. The exponential-plusconstant regression equation is less influenced by the
location of the coordinate points and better describes
the physiological lactate response to exercise, as
reported by Hughson et al. (1987). Thus, because
the exponentially-derived lactate threshold produced
the smallest standard error of the estimate with 10km road-race performance, it is a better indicator of
endurance performance than the polynomially-derived measure.

1273

It must be emphasised that this study simulated

the influence of the initial speed of the incremental
test on the lactate threshold determined by the
maximal-deviation method by excluding the first and
the first and second points of the lactate-speed curve.
Because the initial speed influences the shape of the
lactate-speed curve and peak speed during the
incremental tests, further studies are needed to
analyse these influences on the maximal-deviation
method.
Conclusions
In summary, both the regression model and initial
intensity of the incremental test influenced the lactate
threshold determined by the maximal-deviation
method. The polynomially-derived lactate threshold
underestimated the exponentially derived equivalent.
The correlation between the exponential lactate
threshold and 10-km road-race performance was
independent of the initial intensity of the incremental
test. Additionally, the exponential lactate threshold
had a higher correlation and smaller standard error of
estimate with 10-km road-race performance than the
polynomial lactate threshold. Thus, despite the small
final sample size, which is a limitation of this study, the
exponential lactate threshold is a valid performance
index that is independent of the initial intensity of the
incremental test. It is better than the polynomial
lactate threshold for this purpose. Smaller correlations
occur when using the polynomial, irrespective of the
initial speed adopted in the incremental test. Because
this was the first study to examine the relationship
between running performance and the lactate threshold determined by the maximal-deviation method
using two regression models, further studies are
required to confirm our findings in other groups of
differing standard. We anticipate that in research and
training this study will contribute to the use both of
the maximal-deviation method and the exponentialplus-constant regression model rather than the thirdorder polynomial model for the determination of the
lactate threshold by the maximal-deviation method.
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