23/3/2015

NationalGeographicMagazineNGM.com

Published:March2015

WhyDoManyReasonablePeopleDoubtScience?
Weliveinanagewhenallmannerofscientificknowledgefromclimatechangetovaccinationsfacesfuriousopposition.
Someevenhavedoubtsaboutthemoonlanding.
Tweet

6,450

ByJoelAchenbach

TheresasceneinStanleyKubrickscomicmasterpieceDr.StrangeloveinwhichJackD.Ripper,anAmericangeneralwhosgonerogueandordereda
nuclearattackontheSovietUnion,unspoolshisparanoidworldviewandtheexplanationforwhyhedrinksonlydistilledwater,orrainwater,andonly
puregrainalcoholtoLionelMandrake,adizzywithanxietygroupcaptainintheRoyalAirForce.

Ripper:Haveyoueverheardofathingcalledfluoridation?Fluoridationofwater?

Mandrake:Ah,yes,Ihaveheardofthat,Jack.Yes,yes.

Ripper:Well,doyouknowwhatitis?

Mandrake:No.No,Idontknowwhatitis.No.

Ripper:Doyourealizethatfluoridationisthemostmonstrouslyconceivedanddangerouscommunistplotwehaveeverhadtoface?

Themoviecameoutin1964,bywhichtimethehealthbenefitsoffluoridationhadbeenthoroughlyestablished,andantifluoridationconspiracytheories
couldbethestuffofcomedy.Soyoumightbesurprisedtolearnthat,halfacenturylater,fluoridationcontinuestoincitefearandparanoia.In2013citizens
inPortland,Oregon,oneofonlyafewmajorAmericancitiesthatdontfluoridatetheirwater,blockedaplanbylocalofficialstodoso.Opponentsdidntlike
theideaofthegovernmentaddingchemicalstotheirwater.Theyclaimedthatfluoridecouldbeharmfultohumanhealth.

Actuallyfluorideisanaturalmineralthat,intheweakconcentrationsusedinpublicdrinkingwatersystems,hardenstoothenamelandpreventstoothdecay
acheapandsafewaytoimprovedentalhealthforeveryone,richorpoor,conscientiousbrusherornot.Thatsthescientificandmedicalconsensus.

TowhichsomepeopleinPortland,echoingantifluoridationactivistsaroundtheworld,reply:Wedontbelieveyou.

Weliveinanagewhenallmannerofscientificknowledgefromthesafetyoffluorideandvaccinestotherealityofclimatechangefacesorganizedand
oftenfuriousopposition.Empoweredbytheirownsourcesofinformationandtheirowninterpretationsofresearch,doubtershavedeclaredwaronthe
consensusofexperts.Therearesomanyofthesecontroversiesthesedays,youdthinkadiabolicalagencyhadputsomethinginthewatertomakepeople
argumentative.Andtheressomuchtalkaboutthetrendthesedaysinbooks,articles,andacademicconferencesthatsciencedoubtitselfhasbecomea
popculturememe.IntherecentmovieInterstellar,setinafuturistic,downtroddenAmericawhereNASAhasbeenforcedintohiding,schooltextbookssay
theApollomoonlandingswerefaked.

Inasenseallthisisnotsurprising.Ourlivesarepermeatedbyscienceandtechnologyasneverbefore.Formanyofusthisnewworldiswondrous,
comfortable,andrichinrewardsbutalsomorecomplicatedandsometimesunnerving.Wenowfaceriskswecanteasilyanalyze.

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print/2015/03/sciencedoubters/achenbachtext

1/6

23/3/2015

NationalGeographicMagazineNGM.com

Wereaskedtoaccept,forexample,thatitssafetoeatfoodcontaininggeneticallymodifiedorganisms(GMOs)because,theexpertspointout,theresno
evidencethatitisntandnoreasontobelievethatalteringgenespreciselyinalabismoredangerousthanalteringthemwholesalethroughtraditional
breeding.Buttosomepeopletheveryideaoftransferringgenesbetweenspeciesconjuresupmadscientistsrunningamokandso,twocenturiesafterMary
ShelleywroteFrankenstein,theytalkaboutFrankenfood.

Theworldcrackleswithrealandimaginaryhazards,anddistinguishingtheformerfromthelatterisnteasy.ShouldwebeafraidthattheEbolavirus,which
isspreadonlybydirectcontactwithbodilyfluids,willmutateintoanairbornesuperplague?Thescientificconsensussaysthatsextremelyunlikely:Novirus
haseverbeenobservedtocompletelychangeitsmodeoftransmissioninhumans,andthereszeroevidencethatthelateststrainofEbolaisanydifferent.
ButtypeairborneEbolaintoanInternetsearchengine,andyoullenteradystopiawherethisvirushasalmostsupernaturalpowers,includingthepowerto
killusall.

Inthisbewilderingworldwehavetodecidewhattobelieveandhowtoactonthat.Inprinciplethatswhatscienceisfor.Scienceisnotabodyoffacts,says
geophysicistMarciaMcNutt,whoonceheadedtheU.S.GeologicalSurveyandisnoweditorofScience,theprestigiousjournal.Scienceisamethodfor
decidingwhetherwhatwechoosetobelievehasabasisinthelawsofnatureornot.Butthatmethoddoesntcomenaturallytomostofus.Andsowerun
intotrouble,againandagain.

LIBRARYOFCONGRESS,GEOGRAPHYANDMAPDIVISION

Thetroublegoeswayback,ofcourse.Thescientificmethodleadsustotruthsthatarelessthanselfevident,oftenmindblowing,andsometimeshard
toswallow.Intheearly17thcentury,whenGalileoclaimedthattheEarthspinsonitsaxisandorbitsthesun,hewasntjustrejectingchurchdoctrine.Hewas
askingpeopletobelievesomethingthatdefiedcommonsensebecauseitsurelookslikethesunsgoingaroundtheEarth,andyoucantfeeltheEarth
spinning.Galileowasputontrialandforcedtorecant.TwocenturieslaterCharlesDarwinescapedthatfate.ButhisideathatalllifeonEarthevolvedfroma
primordialancestorandthatwehumansaredistantcousinsofapes,whales,andevendeepseamollusksisstillabigaskforalotofpeople.Soisanother
19thcenturynotion:thatcarbondioxide,aninvisiblegasthatweallexhaleallthetimeandthatmakesuplessthanatenthofonepercentoftheatmosphere,
couldbeaffectingEarthsclimate.

Evenwhenweintellectuallyacceptthesepreceptsofscience,wesubconsciouslyclingtoourintuitionswhatresearcherscallournaivebeliefs.Arecent
studybyAndrewShtulmanofOccidentalCollegeshowedthatevenstudentswithanadvancedscienceeducationhadahitchintheirmentalgaitwhenasked
toaffirmordenythathumansaredescendedfromseaanimalsorthatEarthgoesaroundthesun.Bothtruthsarecounterintuitive.Thestudents,eventhose
whocorrectlymarkedtrue,wereslowertoanswerthosequestionsthanquestionsaboutwhetherhumansaredescendedfromtreedwellingcreatures(also
truebuteasiertograsp)orwhetherthemoongoesaroundtheEarth(alsotruebutintuitive).Shtulmansresearchindicatesthataswebecomescientifically

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print/2015/03/sciencedoubters/achenbachtext

2/6

23/3/2015

NationalGeographicMagazineNGM.com

literate,werepressournaivebeliefsbutnevereliminatethementirely.Theylurkinourbrains,chirpingatusaswetrytomakesenseoftheworld.

Mostofusdothatbyrelyingonpersonalexperienceandanecdotes,onstoriesratherthanstatistics.Wemightgetaprostatespecificantigentest,even
thoughitsnolongergenerallyrecommended,becauseitcaughtaclosefriendscancerandwepaylessattentiontostatisticalevidence,painstakingly
compiledthroughmultiplestudies,showingthatthetestrarelysaveslivesbuttriggersmanyunnecessarysurgeries.Orwehearaboutaclusterofcancer
casesinatownwithahazardouswastedump,andweassumepollutioncausedthecancers.Yetjustbecausetwothingshappenedtogetherdoesntmeanone
causedtheother,andjustbecauseeventsareclustereddoesntmeantheyrenotstillrandom.

Wehavetroubledigestingrandomnessourbrainscravepatternandmeaning.Sciencewarnsus,however,thatwecandeceiveourselves.Tobeconfident
theresacausalconnectionbetweenthedumpandthecancers,youneedstatisticalanalysisshowingthattherearemanymorecancersthanwouldbe
expectedrandomly,evidencethatthevictimswereexposedtochemicalsfromthedump,andevidencethatthechemicalsreallycancausecancer.

PHOTO:BETTMAN/CORBIS

Evenforscientists,thescientificmethodisaharddiscipline.Liketherestofus,theyrevulnerabletowhattheycallconfirmationbiasthetendencytolook
forandseeonlyevidencethatconfirmswhattheyalreadybelieve.Butunliketherestofus,theysubmittheirideastoformalpeerreviewbeforepublishing
them.Oncetheirresultsarepublished,iftheyreimportantenough,otherscientistswilltrytoreproducethemand,beingcongenitallyskepticaland
competitive,willbeveryhappytoannouncethattheydontholdup.Scientificresultsarealwaysprovisional,susceptibletobeingoverturnedbysomefuture
experimentorobservation.Scientistsrarelyproclaimanabsolutetruthorabsolutecertainty.Uncertaintyisinevitableatthefrontiersofknowledge.

Sometimesscientistsfallshortoftheidealsofthescientificmethod.Especiallyinbiomedicalresearch,theresadisturbingtrendtowardresultsthatcantbe
reproducedoutsidethelabthatfoundthem,atrendthathaspromptedapushforgreatertransparencyabouthowexperimentsareconducted.Francis
Collins,thedirectoroftheNationalInstitutesofHealth,worriesaboutthesecretsaucespecializedprocedures,customizedsoftware,quirkyingredients
thatresearchersdontsharewiththeircolleagues.Buthestillhasfaithinthelargerenterprise.

Sciencewillfindthetruth,Collinssays.Itmaygetitwrongthefirsttimeandmaybethesecondtime,butultimatelyitwillfindthetruth.Thatprovisional
qualityofscienceisanotherthingalotofpeoplehavetroublewith.Tosomeclimatechangeskeptics,forexample,thefactthatafewscientistsinthe1970s
wereworried(quitereasonably,itseemedatthetime)aboutthepossibilityofacomingiceageisenoughtodiscredittheconcernaboutglobalwarmingnow.

LastfalltheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,whichconsistsofhundredsofscientistsoperatingundertheauspicesoftheUnitedNations,
releaseditsfifthreportinthepast25years.Thisonerepeatedlouderandclearerthanevertheconsensusoftheworldsscientists:Theplanetssurface

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print/2015/03/sciencedoubters/achenbachtext

3/6

23/3/2015

NationalGeographicMagazineNGM.com

temperaturehasrisenbyabout1.5degreesFahrenheitinthepast130years,andhumanactions,includingtheburningoffossilfuels,areextremelylikelyto
havebeenthedominantcauseofthewarmingsincethemid20thcentury.ManypeopleintheUnitedStatesafargreaterpercentagethaninother
countriesretaindoubtsaboutthatconsensusorbelievethatclimateactivistsareusingthethreatofglobalwarmingtoattackthefreemarketandindustrial
societygenerally.SenatorJamesInhofeofOklahoma,oneofthemostpowerfulRepublicanvoicesonenvironmentalmatters,haslongdeclaredglobal
warmingahoax.

Theideathathundredsofscientistsfromallovertheworldwouldcollaborateonsuchavasthoaxislaughablescientistslovetodebunkoneanother.Its
veryclear,however,thatorganizationsfundedinpartbythefossilfuelindustryhavedeliberatelytriedtounderminethepublicsunderstandingofthe
scientificconsensusbypromotingafewskeptics.

Thenewsmediagiveabundantattentiontosuchmavericks,naysayers,professionalcontroversialists,andtablethumpers.Themediawouldalsohaveyou
believethatscienceisfullofshockingdiscoveriesmadebylonegeniuses.Notso.The(boring)truthisthatitusuallyadvancesincrementally,throughthe
steadyaccretionofdataandinsightsgatheredbymanypeopleovermanyyears.Soithasbeenwiththeconsensusonclimatechange.Thatsnotabouttogo
poofwiththenextthermometerreading.

ButindustryPR,howevermisleading,isntenoughtoexplainwhyonly40percentofAmericans,accordingtothemostrecentpollfromthePewResearch
Center,acceptthathumanactivityisthedominantcauseofglobalwarming.

Thesciencecommunicationproblem,asitsblandlycalledbythescientistswhostudyit,hasyieldedabundantnewresearchintohowpeopledecidewhatto
believeandwhytheysooftendontacceptthescientificconsensus.Itsnotthattheycantgraspit,accordingtoDanKahanofYaleUniversity.Inonestudy
heasked1,540Americans,arepresentativesample,toratethethreatofclimatechangeonascaleofzerototen.Thenhecorrelatedthatwiththesubjects
scienceliteracy.Hefoundthathigherliteracywasassociatedwithstrongerviewsatbothendsofthespectrum.Scienceliteracypromotedpolarizationon
climate,notconsensus.AccordingtoKahan,thatsbecausepeopletendtousescientificknowledgetoreinforcebeliefsthathavealreadybeenshapedby
theirworldview.

Americansfallintotwobasiccamps,Kahansays.Thosewithamoreegalitarianandcommunitarianmindsetaregenerallysuspiciousofindustryandapt
tothinkitsuptosomethingdangerousthatcallsforgovernmentregulationtheyrelikelytoseetherisksofclimatechange.Incontrast,peoplewitha
hierarchicalandindividualisticmindsetrespectleadersofindustryanddontlikegovernmentinterferingintheiraffairstheyreapttorejectwarnings
aboutclimatechange,becausetheyknowwhatacceptingthemcouldleadtosomekindoftaxorregulationtolimitemissions.

IntheU.S.,climatechangesomehowhasbecomealitmustestthatidentifiesyouasbelongingtooneortheotherofthesetwoantagonistictribes.Whenwe
argueaboutit,Kahansays,wereactuallyarguingaboutwhoweare,whatourcrowdis.Werethinking,Peoplelikeusbelievethis.Peoplelikethatdonot
believethis.Forahierarchicalindividualist,Kahansays,itsnotirrationaltorejectestablishedclimatescience:Acceptingitwouldntchangetheworld,butit
mightgethimthrownoutofhistribe.

TakeabarberinaruraltowninSouthCarolina,Kahanhaswritten.IsitagoodideaforhimtoimplorehiscustomerstosignapetitionurgingCongressto
takeactiononclimatechange?No.Ifhedoes,hewillfindhimselfoutofajob,justashisformercongressman,BobInglis,didwhenhehimselfproposed
suchaction.

Scienceappealstoourrationalbrain,butourbeliefsaremotivatedlargelybyemotion,andthebiggestmotivationisremainingtightwithourpeers.Were
allinhighschool.Weveneverlefthighschool,saysMarciaMcNutt.Peoplestillhaveaneedtofitin,andthatneedtofitinissostrongthatlocalvalues
andlocalopinionsarealwaystrumpingscience.Andtheywillcontinuetotrumpscience,especiallywhenthereisnocleardownsidetoignoringscience.

MeanwhiletheInternetmakesiteasierthaneverforclimateskepticsanddoubtersofallkindstofindtheirowninformationandexperts.Gonearethedays
whenasmallnumberofpowerfulinstitutionseliteuniversities,encyclopedias,majornewsorganizations,evenNationalGeographicservedas
gatekeepersofscientificinformation.TheInternethasdemocratizedinformation,whichisagoodthing.ButalongwithcableTV,ithasmadeitpossibleto

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print/2015/03/sciencedoubters/achenbachtext

4/6

23/3/2015

NationalGeographicMagazineNGM.com

liveinafilterbubblethatletsinonlytheinformationwithwhichyoualreadyagree.

Howtopenetratethebubble?Howtoconvertclimateskeptics?Throwingmorefactsatthemdoesnthelp.LizNeeley,whohelpstrainscientiststobebetter
communicatorsatanorganizationcalledCompass,saysthatpeopleneedtohearfrombelieverstheycantrust,whosharetheirfundamentalvalues.Shehas
personalexperiencewiththis.Herfatherisaclimatechangeskepticandgetsmostofhisinformationontheissuefromconservativemedia.Inexasperation
shefinallyconfrontedhim:Doyoubelievethemorme?Shetoldhimshebelievesthescientistswhoresearchclimatechangeandknowsmanyofthem
personally.IfyouthinkImwrong,shesaid,thenyouretellingmethatyoudonttrustme.Herfathersstanceontheissuesoftened.Butitwasntthe
factsthatdidit.

Ifyourearationalist,theressomethingalittledispiritingaboutallthis.InKahansdescriptionsofhowwedecidewhattobelieve,whatwedecide
sometimessoundsalmostincidental.Thoseofusinthesciencecommunicationbusinessareastribalasanyoneelse,hetoldme.Webelieveinscientific
ideasnotbecausewehavetrulyevaluatedalltheevidencebutbecausewefeelanaffinityforthescientificcommunity.WhenImentionedtoKahanthatI
fullyacceptevolution,hesaid,Believinginevolutionisjustadescriptionaboutyou.Itsnotanaccountofhowyoureason.

Maybeexceptthatevolutionactuallyhappened.Biologyisincomprehensiblewithoutit.Therearentreallytwosidestoalltheseissues.Climatechangeis
happening.Vaccinesreallydosavelives.Beingrightdoesmatterandthesciencetribehasalongtrackrecordofgettingthingsrightintheend.Modern
societyisbuiltonthingsitgotright.

Doubtingsciencealsohasconsequences.Thepeoplewhobelievevaccinescauseautismoftenwelleducatedandaffluent,bythewayareundermining
herdimmunitytosuchdiseasesaswhoopingcoughandmeasles.TheantivaccinemovementhasbeengoingstrongsincetheprestigiousBritishmedical
journaltheLancetpublishedastudyin1998linkingacommonvaccinetoautism.Thejournallaterretractedthestudy,whichwasthoroughlydiscredited.
ButthenotionofavaccineautismconnectionhasbeenendorsedbycelebritiesandreinforcedthroughtheusualInternetfilters.(Antivaccineactivistand
actressJennyMcCarthyfamouslysaidontheOprahWinfreyShow,TheUniversityofGoogleiswhereIgotmydegreefrom.)

Intheclimatedebatetheconsequencesofdoubtarelikelyglobalandenduring.IntheU.S.,climatechangeskepticshaveachievedtheirfundamentalgoalof
haltinglegislativeactiontocombatglobalwarming.Theyhaventhadtowinthedebateonthemeritstheyvemerelyhadtofogtheroomenoughtokeep
lawsgoverninggreenhousegasemissionsfrombeingenacted.

Someenvironmentalactivistswantscientiststoemergefromtheirivorytowersandgetmoreinvolvedinthepolicybattles.Anyscientistgoingthatroute
needstodosocarefully,saysLizNeeley.Thatlinebetweensciencecommunicationandadvocacyisveryhardtostepbackfrom,shesays.Inthedebate
overclimatechangethecentralallegationoftheskepticsisthatthesciencesayingitsrealandaseriousthreatispoliticallytinged,drivenbyenvironmental
activismandnotharddata.Thatsnottrue,anditslandershonestscientists.Butitbecomesmorelikelytobeseenasplausibleifscientistsgobeyondtheir
professionalexpertiseandbeginadvocatingspecificpolicies.

Itstheirverydetachment,whatyoumightcallthecoldbloodednessofscience,thatmakessciencethekillerapp.Itsthewaysciencetellsusthetruthrather
thanwhatwedlikethetruthtobe.Scientistscanbeasdogmaticasanyoneelsebuttheirdogmaisalwayswiltinginthehotglareofnewresearch.Inscience
itsnotasintochangeyourmindwhentheevidencedemandsit.Forsomepeople,thetribeismoreimportantthanthetruthforthebestscientists,the
truthismoreimportantthanthetribe.

Scientificthinkinghastobetaught,andsometimesitsnottaughtwell,McNuttsays.Studentscomeawaythinkingofscienceasacollectionoffacts,nota
method.Shtulmansresearchhasshownthatevenmanycollegestudentsdontreallyunderstandwhatevidenceis.Thescientificmethoddoesntcome
naturallybutifyouthinkaboutit,neitherdoesdemocracy.Formostofhumanhistoryneitherexisted.Wewentaroundkillingeachothertogetona
throne,prayingtoaraingod,andforbetterandmuchworse,doingthingsprettymuchasourancestorsdid.

Nowwehaveincrediblyrapidchange,anditsscarysometimes.Itsnotallprogress.Oursciencehasmadeusthedominantorganisms,withallduerespectto
antsandbluegreenalgae,andwerechangingthewholeplanet.Ofcoursewererighttoaskquestionsaboutsomeofthethingsscienceandtechnologyallow

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print/2015/03/sciencedoubters/achenbachtext

5/6

23/3/2015

NationalGeographicMagazineNGM.com

ustodo.Everybodyshouldbequestioning,saysMcNutt.Thatsahallmarkofascientist.Butthentheyshouldusethescientificmethod,ortrustpeople
usingthescientificmethod,todecidewhichwaytheyfallonthosequestions.Weneedtogetalotbetteratfindinganswers,becauseitscertainthe
questionswontbegettinganysimpler.

WashingtonPostsciencewriterJoelAchenbachhascontributedtoNationalGeographicsince1998.PhotographerRichardBarnesslastfeaturewastheSeptember2014coverstory
onNero.

ContactUs TermsofService PrivacyPolicy RSSFeed Masthead CustomerServices NGStyleManual AdvertiseWithUs

2015NationalGeographicSociety.Allrightsreserved.

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print/2015/03/sciencedoubters/achenbachtext

6/6