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Department of Agribusiness Management and Finance, University for Development Studies, Ghana
Department of Extension, Rural Development and Gender Studies, University for Development Studies, Ghana
3
Department of Economics, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, UK
*Corresponding Authors E-mail: azakariahudu@gmail.com
Accepted 16th September, 2014
Compared to urban areas, a satellite picture of rural areas at night is distressing. Bright lights are few
and far between yet in the face of the Strategic National Energy Plan, Sustainable Energy for All
Action Plan, the Ghana Energy Development and Access Project and Energy Sector Strategy and
Development Plan is the energy sector vision which advocates for accessible energy for all
households in Ghana. This paper investigates the factors that influence households choice of
modern electricity in the West Mampurisi District of Ghana using a household survey data. Multistage sampling procedure was used to obtain 295 households for the study. The underlying empirical
model was estimated using the Probit model. Contrary to widely held beliefs, the results of the Probit
model revealed that cattle ownership which is a proxy for wealth/income is not a key determinant of
household energy connectivity. Significant and positive variables included tenancy type, radio, TV
and fridge ownership, perception about electricity, duration and cost of use of electricity. Government
can support the development of alternative energy sources such as renewable energy or promote the
entry of multiple players into the generation market to reduce the cost of supplying utility power to
the rural communities, thus enabling affordability by every household.
Key words: Connectivity, modern electricity, Probit model, Ghana
INTRODUCTION
Energy is one of the key drivers of any economic growth
and development. Approximately 2.5 billion people in
developing countries use biomass as cooking fuels.
Without new policies and implementation strategies
aimed at reducing the reliance on biomass fuels, this
number is expected to increase by 1 and 2 billion by
2015 and 2030 respectively (IEA, 2006). While majority
of all households in subSaharan Africa use fuel-wood,
charcoal or wood waste as cooking fuels, rural
households often rely heavily on biomass fuels than
those in urban areas (IEA, 2006). According to the
Ghana living Standard Survey 5 conducted by GSS
(2008), over 50% of households in Ghana rely on both
traditional and non-traditional energy. About 79% of
households in urban areas have electricity for lighting as
against 27% of households in rural areas. Electricity and
kerosene are the main sources of energy for lighting in
Literature review
The energy ladder hypothesis provides the theoretical
justification for a representative household to switch to
modern energy source as income increases. This
hypothesis is built on the assumption that a households
fuel choice is dependent on the level of income such that
as incomes increase, household move from the
traditional fuels, such as wood, first to transitional fuels,
like kerosene and charcoal, and then to modern fuels,
such as electricity from the grid (Leach, 1992). Thus,
households with low income levels heavily rely on
biomass fuels (often dirtier) while those with relatively
higher incomes consume electric energy often cleaner
and more expensive (Heltberg, 2005). This dynamic is
well illustrated in Figure 1.
Critics (Masera et al. 2000; Heltbeg, 2004) however
argue that the energy ladder provides only limited and
restrictive view owing to its failure to adequately show
the dynamics in household fuel choice. To them, the
possibility of multiple fuel choices provides an elaborated
and better alternative. In other words, each household
faces a number of mutually exclusive options of cooking
fuels and thus chooses the one that best maximizes its
utility. Hence, the likelihood of fuel stacking provides a
kind of cross-sectional energy ladder (Lay et al. 2012)
METHODOLOGY
Model specification
Response to the use of electricity from the national grid
as energy choice was recorded as a binary variable
represented by 1 if connected or 0 if not connected. In
other words households connectivity to electricity was
expressed in two categories: connected and not
connected, thus placing the analysis within the
framework of binary choice models. Models for
explaining a binary dependent variable include the linear
probability model (LPM), probit and logit models
(Maddala, 1992; Greene, 2003 and Gujarati, 2004).
However, since the dependent variable is dichotomous,
the use of LPM is not appropriate because the predicted
value can fall outside the relevant probability range of 0
and 1. Aside this, it is also reported to have non-normal
and non-constant error terms and posses constant effect
of the explanatory variable. To overcome these
problems, logit or probit models have been
recommended. These models have been argued to have
similar estimates (see Maddala 1992; Greene 2003;
Gujarati, 2004; Hill et al. 2008).
Logit and probit models translate the values of the
independent variables (
, which may range from
to
into a probability for
which ranges from 0 to
1 and compel the disturbance terms to be
homoscedastic. The forms of probability functions
depend on the distribution of the difference between the
error terms associated with a particular choice. The
probit and logit models assume the existence of an
underlying latent variable for which a dichotomous
Yi = 0 +
j Xij + i . . (1)
j=1
where
is a latent variable (not observable) and what is
observed is a dummy variable Yi defined as:
1 ifyi > 0
(2)
0 otherwise
Yi = Xi + i . (3)
where
is household connectivity and a latent variable
which can be related to the observable binary variable
through the expression:
Yi =
1 ifyi > 0
(4)
0 otherwise
Table 1: Definition, measurement and sample average of variables included in the model
Variable
Household connectivity
Gender
Education
Household size
Household dwelling status
Credit
Group membership
Contacts with VRA workers
Distance to VRA or town
Cattle
Radio
Phone
TV
Fridge
Perception
Duration of use
Cost of use
Hazard
Definition/measurement
Dummy (1 = connected to electricity; 0 otherwise)
Dummy (1 = male; 0 otherwise)
Dummy (1 = formal education; 0 otherwise)
Number of people in the household
Dummy (1 = rented; 0 otherwise)
Dummy (1 = household has access to credit; 0 if
otherwise)
Dummy (1 = member of a group; 0 otherwise)
Dummy (1 = contacts with VRA workers; 0
otherwise)
Dummy (1 = far from VRA sub-office/town; 0
otherwise)
Dummy (1 = household has cattle; 0 otherwise)
Dummy (1 = household has radio; 0 otherwise)
Dummy (1 = household has phone; 0 otherwise)
Dummy (1 = household has TV; 0 otherwise)
Dummy (1 = household has a fridge; 0 otherwise)
Dummy (1 = electricity is reliable; 0 otherwise)
Number of hours
Amount in Ghana Cedis (GH)
Dummy (1 = electricity is hazardous; 0 otherwise)
Mean
0.4983
0.6644
0.1492
8.9017
0.2034
0.0339
S. D.
0.5008
0.4730
0.3568
5.9052
0.4032
0.1813
0.4169
0.7322
0.4939
0.4436
0.0441
0.2056
0.3627
0.1898
0.8644
0.4407
0.2000
0.1763
15.5444
11.9939
0.5627
0.4816
0.3928
0.3429
0.4973
0.4007
0.3817
12.6803
30.9158
0.4969
Coefficient
Standard Error
Constant
Gender
Education
Household size
Household dwelling status
Credit
Group membership
Contacts with VRA workers
Distance to VRA sub-office
Cattle
Radio
Phone
Television (TV)
Fridge
Perception
Duration of use
Cost of use
Hazard
Number of observations
LR
(17)
Prob >
2
MacFadden R
Log Likelihood
-1.3817
-0.3396
0.0024
-0.0049
1.0740
-1.2854
-0.5421
0.0052
1.1368
-0.5452
0.9173
0.0574
0.8829
1.2813
1.7890
0.0940
-0.0193
-0.2868
0.5339
0.2621
0.4634
0.0217
0.4009
0.6347
0.2851
0.3326
0.5869
0.2719
0.3033
0.3320
0.2948
0.6032
0.4969
0.0166
0.0099
0.2484
295
253.37
0.000***
0.6195
-77.7939
-2.59
-1.30
0.01
-0.22
2.68***
-2.03**
-1.90**
0.02
1.94*
-2.00**
3.02***
0.17
2.99***
2.12**
3.60***
5.65***
-1.95*
-1.15
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