Escolar Documentos
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Markets Research
Global
Periodical
DB Today Global/Macro
Greg Poole
Amy Wei
Equity Focus
Research Analyst
(+1) 212 250-9902 (+1) 212 250-5574
greg.poole@db.com amy.tan@db.com
MACRO HIGHLIGHTS
Asia Strategy China Economics - Jun Ma
Q4 GDP growth came in at 7.7%yoy, marginally higher than Bloomberg
consensus forecast of 7.6% although slightly lower than our estimate of 7.8%.
For 2013 as a whole, China's GDP growth was 7.7%, above the government's
target of 7.5%. In its press release, the National Bureau of Statistics stated that
"national economy performance shows good momentum". Details on Page 07
INDEX
1D
%Chg
YTD
%Chg
S&P 500
1838.70
-0.4
-0.5
NASDAQ
DOW
4197.58
16458.56
-0.5
0.3
0.5
-0.7
3165.66
6843.92
0.4
0.1
1.8
1.4
0.5
-0.3
-1.2
-2.4
DJ STOXX 50
FTSE 100 INDEX
BRAZIL BOVESPA
Close
48708.41
-1.0
-5.4
1215.15
-0.2
-2.7
RTS-2 INDEX
COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITIES
Close
West Texas
Brent
CRB
94.37
1D
YTD
%Chg
%Chg
0.4
-4.1
108.39
278.41
1.0
0.0
-2.2
-0.6
332.25
1249.18
-0.7
-0.4
-2.2
3.6
Alum. (LME)
1806.50
-0.8
0.3
Baltic Dry
1428.00
0.5
N.A.
Copper
Gold (Spot)
Close
HK$
EUR
7.76
1.35
1D
%Chg
0.0
-0.1
YTD
%Chg
0.0
-1.5
JPY
104.68
-0.5
0.6
GBP
1.64
0.0
-0.8
Current
Value
SPX 3M Mat ATM-Strike Imp Vol
12.11
SPX 3M Mat 90%-110% IV Skew
8.27
%-ile
Rank
7.6
66.0
Source: Bloomberg
DERIVATIVES
8.89
0.4
YTD
%Chg
4.9
1.8
-0.5
Source: Bloomberg
CREDIT
Credit
65.41
1D
%Chg
0.2
ITRX.Europe
CDX.NA.HY
71.50
107.90
0.7
0.0
ITRAX.XOVER
279.83
0.4
-2.4
55.79
12.3
-12.3
CDX.NA.IG
SOVX.WE
Close
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 054/04/2013.
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
MACRO HIGHLIGHTS
US Economics US Daily Economic Notes Joseph LaVorgna
The data docket this week is light ahead of the January 28-29 FOMC meeting. The main releases all come Thursday
with initial jobless claims, existing home sales and the index of leading economic indicators. Jobless claims will be the
primary focus as they correspond to the survey period for January payrolls. If the recent trend in claims continues, we
expect a substantial recovery in the pace of hiring following the weather impacted disappointment in December
payrolls (+74k). Jobless claims have fallen three out of the last four weeks following a significant back up in early
December that was most likely due to the same weather that afflicted payrolls. Details on Page 11
Quantitative Strategy
Quantfucius - Khoi Le
Binh
GD cement trip takeaways; reiterating Buy on CRC, raising TP to HKD7.65. We hosted a cement
trip to GD, post DBs Access China conference. Our visit confirms the strong start to 2014
highlighted by cement companies at our conference. Due to good weather conditions in Jan,
inventory levels are low and prices have been maintained for most producers compared to Dec
13. In South and East China, where we see more balanced supply-demand, there is a strong
willingness among producers to keep prices steady, as they plan to maximize profits in those
areas. Details on Page 12
Deep value and plenty of cash what's next?. At a 37% discount to market SOTP, Genting Hong
Kong remains a deep value stock with nearly US$1.0bn gross cash after paring down its stake in
NCLH. The Lim family raised its stake to 58.1%, or 75.9% including that held by Genting
Malaysia. We see dividends, M&A and fleet rejuvenation as ways to deploy cash. We trim our
TP to US$0.545/sh given our earnings cut but maintain Buy. Details on Page 13
Quantifying markets. Even though investor sentiment appears to be low (but improving) across
Asian markets, liquidity has returned, liquidity risk has normalized and investors have been
pricing risk adequately. Since the opportunity set for stock pickers is at the highest, we believe
that Asian equity investors should focus on stock selection. Details on Page 14
(Originally published on 17 January 2014)
EUROPE
MTU - Benjamin Fidler
Q4 performance unlikely to generate much excitement. MTU will report FY13 results on 18 Feb.
We expect little surprise around Q4 trading, with spares growth likely to have been flat YoY. All
eyes will be on 2014 guidance, where although the main moving pieces have already been
provided, no hard EBIT or FCF numbers have yet been given. The key issue for MTU remains
returning to better earnings growth and improved FCF. With the shares trading in line with our
E65 TP, we maintain our Hold rating. Details on Page 15
Aftermarket performance in Q4 and guidance will be the area of focus. Safran reports FY13
results on 20 February. As always the primary focus of results will be civil engine aftermarket
growth, where we see potential for some upside surprise, driven by the strength in the civil
engine aftermarket at the nine-month stage (+25.5%) and recent Q4 results from GE. In usual
fashion, we expect the 2014 initial guidance to be conservative and it would not surprise us if
this comes in below our current forecasts. With appealing valuation in the context of its nearand mid-term growth, we maintain our Buy. Details on Page 16
Thales SA - Milene
Kerner
Good EBIT growth expected for 2013 with confident outlook. Thales reports FY13 results on 19
February. Overall we expect good growth to emerge in 2013 with EBIT growth of 7.5% driven by
the performance plan benefit. We expect management to be upbeat over prospects for 2014 led
by E100m additional savings. This, together with a number of problem contracts which will
reach completion in 2014 and better hedge rate, means 2014 EPS should be up low teens. Of
key importance will be any comments over margin progress beyond 2014. Details on Page 17
Contd on next page
Page 2
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
UK WATER - James
Brand
Early redemption of UCB's convertible bond is weighing on performance. UCBs shares have
fallen 5% since the beginning of 2014 (vs an average +5% for our EU pharma coverage). We
believe this reflects anticipation of a decision to trigger early redemption of its 430m in
convertible bonds. If fully converted this could lead to issue of 11.1m shares and continued
weakness as some bondholders are likely to sell/short the equity. A similar situation for mid-cap
peer Shire weighed on its shares in 4Q13 but we note these have rebounded by c.10% since the
hedging period expired. We view weakness as an attractive entry point and reiterate our Buy
rating and 61 TP. Details on Page 18
Announcement on key financial parameters should improve visibility. OFWAT will announce on
27 January its view on key financial parameters for the 2014 price review including the allowed
return, financial incentives and the financial flexibility companies have when setting prices. We
expect the headline allowed return to be quite tough and a negative shock can't be ruled out.
However, it should allow visibility to start to improve and may mark the peak of uncertainty for
the sector. We see United Utilities' (Buy, 800p TP) shares as the most compelling investment
opportunity in the space. Details on Page 19
NORTH AMERICA
Hilton Worldwide
(HLT.N),USD22.25 Buy
Price Target USD27
Initiating Coverage with a Buy Rating and $27 Price Target. While we anticipate many will
clamor that the bull case for meaningful upside in HLT from current levels is the optionality from
asset monetization, something we detail later in this report, we find: 1) the industry bull case,
especially given HLTs domestic owned exposure and leverage to accelerating ADRs at current
chain scale occupancy levels, also something we detail later, 2) its international unit pipeline
growth, and 3) the de-leveraging and therefore differentiated aspect of the story, to be most
appealing. As such, we are launching coverage with a Buy rating and $27 price target. Details
on Page 20
Page 3
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
TODAYS HEADLINES
Markets: Equities generally a touch weaker in Europe on the back of weaker financials, US market closed for holiday.
European bond yields generally nudge lower. Asian bourses generally firmer Tuesday, including China as the PBoC
injects liquidity ahead of LNY holiday, NZD lifted as Q4 headline CPI rises more than expected.
DEU: PPI rises 0.1%mom in December, down 0.5%yoy, slightly above mkt.
ITA: Industrial orders up 2.3%mom/3.0%yoy in November, above mkt.
BEL: Consumer confidence index up 1pt to -4 in January.
CHN: GDP rises 7.7% over the year in Q4, above mkt.
CHN: Industrial production rises 9.7%yoy in December, a tad below mkt.
CHN: Retail sales up 13.6%yoy in December, at mkt.
CHN: Fixed assets ex rural rises 19.6%yoy YTD in December, below mkt.
CHN: Business climate index down 2pts to 119.5 in Q4.
N ZL: CPI rises 0.1% qoq in Q1, above mkt, 10% trimmed mean rises 0.2% qoq
Page 4
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
Forecast
G7 Quarterly GDP growth
% qoq saar/annual: % yoy
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13F
Q1 14F
Q2 14F
Q3 14F
Q4 14F
2013F
2014F
US
1.1
2.5
4.1
4.0
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.7
2.0
3.5
2015F
3.8
Japan
4.5
3.6
1.1
1.1
2.5
-5.7
4.3
1.3
1.5
0.7
1.3
Euroland
-0.9
1.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.3
1.5
-0.4
1.0
1.4
Germany
0.0
2.9
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
0.5
1.5
1.4
1.6
France
-0.2
2.3
-0.5
0.5
0.8
1.1
1.6
1.6
0.2
0.9
Italy
-2.3
-1.2
-0.1
0.4
0.8
1.4
1.1
0.7
-1.8
0.6
0.7
UK
2.0
3.2
3.1
3.4
2.7
2.3
2.0
2.0
1.5
2.7
2.0
Canada
2.3
1.6
2.7
2.1
3.9
2.4
3.1
2.5
1.8
2.9
2.8
aG7
1.3
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.5
1.2
3.0
2.6
1.4
2.5
2.7
a) Euroland forecasts as at the last forecast round on 11/12/13. Bold figures signal upward revisions, bold, underlined figures signal downward revisions. (b)
GDP figures refer to working day adjusted data, except Germany. (c) HICP figures for euro-zone countries and the UK (d) Current account figures for Euro area countries include intra regional transactions.
Sources: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research
Commodities
USD
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
2013
2014
2015
2016
WTI (bbl)
94.36
94.17
106.07
105.00
99.88
98.75
95.00
85.00
112.64
103.35
109.74
110.00
109.00
106.25
105.00
100.00
3.48
4.02
3.56
4.00
3.76
4.25
4.50
4.75
1632
1417
1330
1350
1432
1338
1325
1400
30
23
21
22
24
23
24
24
Brent (bbl)
US Natural Gas (mmBtu)
Gold
Silver
Aluminium
USc/lb
92.6
84.9
83.2
79.4
85.0
81.7
88.5
99.8
USD/t
2041
1871
1829
1750
1874
1800
1950
2200
USc/lb
361.1
326.2
321.0
322.1
332.6
319.9
308.5
331.2
USD/t
7958
7190
7087
7100
7331
7050
6800
7300
Copper
2014
2015
2016
0 - 0.25
0 - 0.25
1.75
3.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
1.75
0-0.1
0-0.1
0-0.1
0-0.1
UK
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.75
China
3.00
3.25
3.25
3.25
India
7.75
7.00
7.50
7.5
US
Eurozone
Japan
Page 5
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
FORECAST
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
Countries
US
Spot Rate
3M
6M
12M
DB US$ Index
70
71
72
76
(Fwd. Rates)
EUR/USD
1.38
1.35
1.32
1.25
(Fwd. Rates)
1.38
1.38
1.38
USD/JPY
103
106
109
115
(Fwd. Rates)
103
103
103
GBP/USD
1.64
1.63
1.61
1.56
(Fwd. Rates)
1.64
1.64
1.63
USD/CHF
0.89
0.91
0.95
1.02
(Fwd. Rates)
0.89
0.89
0.88
USD/CNY
6.07
6.10
6.05
6.00
6.08
6.07
6.07
Euro
Japan
UK
Switzerland
China
(Fwd.
Rates)
GOVERNMENT RATES
Current
2.8
2.1
US 10Y yield
EUR 10Y yield
Q4-13
2.50
2.20
Q1-14
2.75
2.30
Q3-14
3.00
2.50
INDEX FORECASTS
Current
310
6554
8623
13000
1782
DJ Stoxx 600
FTSE 100
Dax
MSCI HK
S&P 500
2013
315
6575
8400
NA
UPCOMING CONFERENCES/TRIPS
Date
January 22 24, 2014
January 22 24, 2014
February 5 6, 2014
March 4, 2014
March 5, 2014
March 10 12, 2014
April 2 3, 2014
May 7 9, 2014
May 12 13, 2014
May 15, 2014
Conferences
16th Annual dbAccess Retail Store Tour @ Berkshire
dbAccess CEEMEA Conference @ London
dbAccess MENA Conference @ Dubai
Gaming One-on-One Corporate Day @ Boston
Consumer Conference @ Boston
22nd Annual Media, Internet and Telecom Conference @ Palm Beach, FL
dbAccess Pan European Small & Mid Cap 14th Annual Conference @ London
dbAccess 4th Annual Chile Conference @ London
Clean Tech, Utilities and Power Conference @ New York
dbAccess Italy Conference @ London
Description
Research Presentation
Page 6
Dial-in Details
-
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
China Economics
Q4 GDP growth came in at 7.7%yoy, marginally higher than Bloomberg consensus forecast of 7.6% although slightly
lower than our estimate of 7.8%. For 2013 as a whole, China's GDP growth was 7.7%, above the government's target
of 7.5%. In its press release, the National Bureau of Statistics stated that "national economy performance shows
good momentum".
We maintain our view that economic growth will likely accelerate in 2014 on stronger external demand (according to
our estimate, China's qoq saar export growth has already accelerated to 20% in Q4 last year), benefits from
deregulation, and improving fiscal performance in the second half of 2013. For Q1 2014, yoy GDP growth could be
further boosted by a favorable base effect (as Q1 2013's qoq growth was 0.4ppts weaker than the annual average) to
a level above 8%.
As for other data releases by the NBS today, December retail sales growth was in line with consensus (13.6%yoy)
while IP and nominal FAI growth were marginally weaker than expectations.
Specifically, IP growth decelerated to 9.7%yoy in December from 10.0%yoy in November, slightly lower than market
consensus of 9.8%yoy. At the sector level, power production growth normalized to 8.3%yoy in December from
6.8%yoy in November, suggesting that demand for heavy manufacturing has been improving. For example,
acceleration of production growth was seen in sectors such as pig iron (by 5.3ppts), crude steel (2.3ppts), cement
(0.8ppts) and crude oil processing (0.8ppts) compared with those in November. Nominal FAI growth slowed by
0.3ppts to 19.9%yoy in Jan-Dec from Jan-Nov, but real FAI growth (stripping out inflation) remained steady. FAI in
sectors like railway equipment manufacturing, railway transportation, education, and social services witnessed
accelerating growth in 2014, indicating that investment is shifting towards sectors with under-capacity. Funds
available for real estate developers grew 26.5% in 2013, accelerating from 12.7% in 2012, indicating a more
favorable financing environment for real estate investment. This is leading indicator should suggest a positive
momentum for real estate investment growth in 2014. Retail sales growth was 13.6%yoy in December, vs. 13.7% in
November and consensus of 13.6%. By product, the sales of furniture (20.1%yoy), communication appliances
(21.8%yoy) and construction materials (24.9%) showed stronger growth in December.
In the past days, many investors were concerned about the restructuring of a trust product issued by China Credit
Trust and its potential ripple effect on the financial system. We believe that its spillover effect will be very limited but
its long term implication is very positive, as permitting some WPM defaults is an important step towards reducing
systemic risks. It is because these defaults, although very small in terms of scale and impact on the real economy,
will significantly enhance the ability of the market to price risks (i.e. increasing the risk premiums for risky products),
reduce the incentive for financial institutions (including banks) to sell risky products, and contain the ability of risky
issuers to borrow excessively from the market, and allocate risks to investors with the right risk appetite.
Jun Ma
(+852) 2203 8308
jun.ma@db.com
Page 7
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
Macro Strategy
Well done for surviving 'Blue Monday' yesterday - a day which many say is the most depressing day of the year.
Apparently by now New Year's resolutions are failing, with the cold reality of what lies ahead truly setting in against a
soundtrack of still dark mornings and nights. Nice! For me its compounded by having played only one round of golf
in the last month due to first skiing and now flooding. Its also not helped by half the radiators in our house being
turned off at the moment and having no stairs due to building work. So with that I'm packing my bags and heading
off to Asia and Australia for 2 weeks seeing clients. Hopefully by the time I'm back I can put the Arc back in the
garage and I can climb to higher ground on a beautiful new staircase. As for the EMR, although one would think that
this would be an easier time zone in which to contribute, the reality is that I have a full schedule of meetings so I'll be
relying on Anthony even more than ever. Indeed Anthony will take over this morning's EMR after this para to allow
me to prepare for the flight etc. My first stop is Japan where I haven't been since Abenomics started so I'm intrigued
to see how things have changed. I hope the love of Karaoke remains! Anyway I'll leave you with Anthony for now.
Though European markets felt fairly directionless yesterday, there has been plenty of debate on Chinas growth
numbers after the release of Q4 GDP data yesterday. The prevailing sentiment is a bit firmer this morning thanks to
the Peoples Bank of Chinas actions today and yesterday to shore up liquidity into the domestic banking system.
According to Reuters, the PBoC has conducted a total of CNY180bn in 21- day reverse repos and another CNY75bn in
7-day reverse repos to provide short term funds to banks today. This comes after the PBoC announced that it had
provided liquidity to larger banks through its Standing Lending Facility yesterday, but the total amount provided was
not disclosed. In addition to that, the PBoC is expanding the facility to small-medium sized banks in 10 regions for a
trial period of 14 days (concluding after Lunar New Year). As part of the trial, smaller banks can seek funding before
the month-end Lunar New Year holiday via the SLF when the overnight, 7-day and 14-day repo rate exceed 5%, 7%
and 8% respectively. Approximately US$20bn has been set aside for the trial.
The PBoCs actions have provided a boost to Asian equities this morning. S&P500 futures are up 0.4% and Asian
bourses are up between 0.5 and 1 percent. Chinas 14-day repo rate has declined by more than 300bp and this has
helped Chinese Ashares stem recent losses (Shanghai Comp +0.7%). Nonetheless, the Shanghai Composite (-5.2%
YTD) remains one of the worst performing equity indices in the Asia region (and indeed the world), exceeding even
the poor YTD performance of Brazils Bovespa (-4.7%) in USD terms. Outside of equities there has been a flow of
investors looking to buy credit protection via the Australian sovereign 5yr CDS and China sovereign 5yr CDS, which
have widened by as much as 4-5bp apiece in the last 24 hours, but the PBoCs injection has provided some relief
today. In Japan, a 0.5% move higher in USDJPY is underpinning the bid for Japanese equities (Nikkei +1.4%) though
flows remain on the subdued side.
Jim Reid
(+44) 20 754-72943
jim.reid@db.com
Page 8
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
FX Daily
Market crossroads would be the yen to depreciate when BoJ does not ease further, strengthen when it does.
The BoJ is holding a Monetary Policy Meeting on 21-22nd January. Many market participants expect the Bank to
maintain its policy at this meeting and move to ease further in Apr-Jun. The view is that the BoJ is likely to ease
further to stimulate the economy following the consumption tax hike in April or to further heighten inflation
expectations as it reviews the year of QQE.
The market seems to see that, factoring in additional easing by the BoJ, the 10y JGB yield can stay low at 0.6% and
overseas investors sold the yen and bought Japanese stocks. They simply conclude that the yen could appreciate,
stocks fall, and yields rise due to an unwinding of such positions if the BoJ does not ease further.
Will this really happen? The BoJ has been conducting extreme easing labeled "a new dimension of easing". The Bank
would likely save further easing for unexpected future developments when the US economy (especially employment),
which is the key driver of yen depreciation, continues to firm and the USD/JPY rises in 105-110.
We see no issue with the basic view that simultaneous progress of the Fed's QE3 taper and the BoJ's QQE would
bring yen depreciation. However, smooth progress in tapering QE in the US assumes a firm US economy. This would
naturally encourage the yen to weaken and stocks to rise, likely diminishing the need for the BoJ to ease further.
Conversely, the USD/JPY and stocks would likely fall and the BoJ would be forced to ease further if the US economy
deteriorates. However, even if the Bank eases further, the yen will not depreciate against the dollar and Japanese
stocks will inevitably correct if the US economy is weak.
Some position adjustments may be seen over the coming months depending on the degree to which additional
easing by the BoJ is factored in. However, further easing by the BoJ is in itself largely reactive to US-led exchange
rates and share prices. We see the US economy as unequivocally more important for the yen than marginal changes
of BoJ policy under the zero interest rate condition.
Taisuke Tanaka
(+81) 3 5156-6714
taisuke.tanaka@db.com
Page 9
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
Page 10
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
US Daily Economic
Notes
Commentary for Today: The data docket this week is light ahead of the January 28-29 FOMC meeting. The main
releases all come Thursday with initial jobless claims, existing home sales and the index of leading economic
indicators. Jobless claims will be the primary focus as they correspond to the survey period for January payrolls. If
the recent trend in claims continues, we expect a substantial recovery in the pace of hiring following the weather
impacted disappointment in December payrolls (+74k). Jobless claims have fallen three out of the last four weeks
following a significant back up in early December that was most likely due to the same weather that afflicted
payrolls. As we have repeatedly noted, the recent volatility in claims is not unusual around this time of the year. The
Labor Department acknowledged as much in early December when claims jumped to 380k, which was a meaningful
deviation from the prior readings. Since then, claims have steadily declined to 326k as of the latest data point for the
week of January 11. Assuming claims remain at their current level this week, the four-week moving average will
decline to 331kapproximately 8k below where it was for the November survey period. Recall that the November
payroll gain was an initially reported +203k and was subsequently revised up to +241k. Thus, barring any meaningful
aberration in claims this week, we would expect a solid +200k nonfarm payroll gain in January. Additionally, given
the weather impact on payrolls last month, which we estimate depressed hiring by approximately +100k, we
anticipate at least a +40k upward revision to the December data.
Aside from December nonfarm payrolls, the bulk of the economic data over the past month have reinforced our view
that growth remains well above trend; this should be reflected in the December LEI (+0.3% forecast vs. +0.8%
previously). Thus far in the current quarter, consumer confidence remains stable, the regional manufacturing surveys
point toward steady factory sector output, and the private sector consumption data showed signs of acceleration in
Q4. In fact, our preferred measure of underlying domestic demandfinal sales to private domestic purchasersis
expected to rise over 4.0% in Q4the best performance since Q1 2012. At the same time, the fiscal drag from tax
increases and spending cuts will be significantly less this year as state and local spending should turn positive.
Remember, too, that household net wealth has likely increased by about $8 trillion over the past year which should
be highly supportive of further consumption gains.
Against this backdrop, we anticipate the housing sector to continue to improve. To be sure, December existing home
sales (4.95M vs. 4.9M) could see a minor weather impact similar to last weeks housing starts and permits data.
Thus, we would not get overly concerned if the transactions data disappoint, especially given that homebuilder
confidence remains elevated and rising home prices should buoy commercial bank lending for mortgages. In fact,
household mortgage debt in Q3 increased for the first time in over five years. On the margin, rising mortgage
liabilities should ease lingering concerns among some dovish policymakers that tapering of MBS purchases will
restrain the housing recovery.
Joseph LaVorgna
(+1) 212 250-7329
joseph.lavorgna@db.com
Page 11
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
China Cement
Page 12
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
Buy
Reuters: GENH.SI
Exchange: HSI
Ticker: GENH
0.42
0.54
0.52 - 0.38
3,334
7,892.7
-10.4
0.38
1.1
2012A
520
2013E
555
2014E
650
198.4
751.4
261.8
0.02
14.8
0.0
0.01
43.6
0.0
0.03
13.1
0.0
Page 13
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
Page 14
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
MTU
Hold
Reuters: MTXGn.DE Exchange: GER
Ticker: MTXGn
67.60
65.00
79.25 - 65.76
3,427.3
50.7
44,022
320.93
2012A
4.01
2013E
4.07
2014E
4.09
3,379
3,732
3,898
299
15.1
303
16.6
305
16.5
272
289
304
1.35
1.38
1.41
Page 15
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
SAFRAN
Buy
Reuters: SAF.PA
Exchange: PAR
Ticker: SAF
2012A
1.87
53.45
55.00
53.61 - 33.25
22,243.3
416.2
395,171
320.93
2013E
1.99
2014E
2.54
1,107
26.9
1,453
21.0
1,319
1,679
2,033
0.96
1.27
1.34
Page 16
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
Thales SA
Buy
Reuters: TCFP.PA
Exchange: PAR
Ticker: TCFP
2012A
3.15
48.93
52.00
48.95 - 26.52
9,780.2
199.9
160,250
320.93
2013E
3.35
2014E
3.91
955
14.6
1,115
12.5
606
747
900
0.88
0.97
1.12
Page 17
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
UCB
Buy
Reuters: UCB.BR
Exchange: BRU
Ticker: UCB
51.32
61.00
54.93 - 38.45
9,201.7
179
320.9
2012A
3,462
242
2013E
3,407
280
2014E
3,601
417
242
280
417
2.13
1.02
18.0
1.94
1.07
26.5
2.26
1.12
22.7
Page 18
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
UK Water
Companies Mentioned
United Utilities (UU.L),GBP690.00 Buy
Price Target GBP800.00
Pennon Group (PNN.L),GBP687.50 Hold
Price Target GBP650.00
Severn Trent (SVT.L),GBP1,651.00 Hold
Price Target GBP1,550.00
Page 19
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
Hilton Worldwide
Buy
Reuters: HLT.N
Exchange: NYS
Ticker: HLT
Initiate with Buy, tgt $27. Owned Assets, Industry Tailwinds, & Pipeline;
Price (USD)
Price target
52-week range
Market Cap (USD)
Shares outstanding (m)
Volume (17 Jan 2014)
S&P 500 INDEX
FYE 12/31
1Q EPS
2Q EPS
3Q EPS
4Q EPS
FY EPS (USD)
P/E (x)
2012A
22.25
27.00
22.28 - 21.50
21,907.7
984.6
610,162
1,838.70
2013E
0.03A
0.16A
0.20A
0.16
0.56
39.8
2014E
0.07
0.18
0.17
0.20
0.62
36.1
Page 20
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
Additional information available upon request
For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this
research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our
website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr
Analyst Certification
This report covers more than one security and was contributed to by more than one analyst. The views expressed in
this report accurately reflect the views of each contributor to this compendium report. In addition, each contributor has
not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this compendium report.
48 %
45 %
40 %
33 %
6%
Buy
Hold
Companies Covered
22 %
Sell
Global Universe
Page 21
21 January 2014
DB Today - Global/Macro
Regulatory Disclosures
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preparation of this research report, the Brazil based analyst whose name appears first assumes primary responsibility for
its content from a Brazilian regulatory perspective and for its compliance with CVM Instruction # 483.
EU
countries:
Disclosures
relating
to
our
obligations
under
MiFiD
can
be
found
at
http://www.globalmarkets.db.com/riskdisclosures.
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Page 22
David Folkerts-Landau
Group Chief Economist
Member of the Group Executive Committee
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Global Chief Operating Officer
Research
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FICC Research & Global Macro Economics
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