Climate change induced migration

and its security implications for

Indias neighbourhood

The Energy and Resources Institute

This discussion paper has been prepared by Deepti Mahajan,

Devika Sharma, Jayashree, Vivekanandan, Smrithi Talwar, and
Swati Ganeshan, TERI, for the 15th Conference of Parties to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,
718 December 2009, Copenhegan, Denmark.

www.teriin.org

Climate change induced migration

and its security implications for
Indias neighbourhood1

M
Migration has become
not only a socioeconomic challenge,
but also a security
concern

Migration patterns
in the Indian
neighbourhood

igration is a fact of human history. Through millennia, people

have been migrating for reasons that have neither been obvious
nor straightforward. The push and pull factors of migration would
not have been necessary to pinpoint had it not been for the solidification
of the territorial state system across the world. As sovereign states became
the norm for organizing people into distinct nations, migration became a
reality that needed to be managed.
In recent years, migration has again come to the forefront due to several
factors such as the global economic recession, increase in identity-based
violence and acts of terrorism in the world, as well as the possible increased
frequency of extreme events and disasters due to climate change. With
growing population pressure on the worlds increasingly scarce resources,
migration has become not only a socio-economic challenge, but also a
security concern. Hence a challenge not only for inter-state relations, but
also intra-state politics.
While migration as a result of environmental reasons has long been
part of the discourse on migration, it is only relatively recently that climate
change-induced migration per se has surfaced as an area of research and
concern. Migration due to climate change needs to be studied in isolation,
to understand some of the key issues such as: what are the drivers of
migration due to climate change? Can climate change be delineated from
other environmental causes for migration? What are the hotspots or areas
from where climate change-induced migration can be expected in the
future? What can the governments at the local, national and regional level
do to address this challenge? What are the patterns of migration (across
Indias borders as well as within Indias borders) that can be expected to
intensify in the decades to come due to climate change impacts in India
and its neighbourhood? What are the security implications of migration
caused by climate change in the Indian neighbourhood?

Migration across Indias borders (specifically from the immediate
neighbourhood) has thus far been for a broad range of reasons such as
economic, political, socio-cultural, and historical linkages. Flow of migration
has taken place generally from Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Tibet (China),
Myanmar, and Pakistan. It is interesting to note that environmental causes
or displacement due to governmental projects or climate change does not
fall under any one of the heads. Forced displacement within India is usually

Based on a project supported by the British High CommissionDFID in 2009.

development-related. An important point to note, however, is that the data

related to migration into the country (as well as within the country) are
collected by different agencies for different purposes. Therefore, there is no
one source with figures on migration. There is also a lack of information
on the duration of stay and from where immigration is taking place.
Unauthorized migration faces an even bigger problem. Given the fact that
we do not have definite numbers of migration into India, it is even more
difficult to make precise projections for future migration flows into the
country due to climate change or for any other reason.

Climate change
hotspots in the Indian
neighbourhood

Migration flows due

to sudden climatic
events such as glacial
lake bursts, floods
and cyclones can be
envisaged from both
within Indias borders
as well as across.

Security implications
of migration in the
Indian neighbourhood
Traditional security
implications

Climate change hotspots in the Indian region highlight the main areas from
where climate change impact on the environment is being felt and can
be expected to magnify in the future. These are the areas or downstream
regions from where out-migration can be expected, as the science and
impacts of climate change manifest (alternatively, become more obvious or
prominent).
Climate change hotspots across Indias borders include low-lying deltaic
regions (Bangladesh), areas threatened by flash floods (Bangladesh, Nepal,
Bhutan, Tibet [China]), glacial lake outbursts (Nepal, Bhutan, Tibet
[China]), loss of livelihood due to changing precipitation patterns (Nepal,
Myanmar), and sea-level rise (Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh).
Potential climate change induced migration in the Indian neighbourhood
can be either of short or long-term duration. It can involve a massive influx
of migrants due to sudden climatic events or a slow trickle due to gradual
climate change processes. Migration flows due to sudden climatic events
such as glacial lake bursts, floods and cyclones can be envisaged from both
within Indias borders as well as across. Across Indias borders, these events
are likely to impact migration inflows from Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan.
Within India, the northeast and Himalayan region, as well as the flood
plains of the major river basins is likely to witness sudden movements of
people. However, we need to be aware of certain caveats in making this
claimthat is, the most destitute are unlikely to migrate; the numbers that
can be expected to migrate would need to be modelled based on various
intrinsic vulnerability parameters, as well as the likely impacts such as
governmental interventions and proactive policies.

Within India, it is important to note that climate-change induced migration

has the potential to exacerbate conflict and be a stress multiplier by
accentuating competition for land and water, ethnic tension, distrust, or
by adding to existing socio-economic fault lines. That is, given the scarcity
of resources and the continuously rising rate of population within India,
competition for access to resources between insiders and aliens has been
a constant reality. There have been several instances of violence between
immigrant labourers and natives. The north-east and Jammu and Kashmir
can be identified as particularly vulnerable to the possibility of climate change
accentuating the already-prevalent conflict situation. Because religion and

cultural issues such as language play a highly emotive role in South Asia,
the rise in ethnic tension and conflict is a very real threat within and across
Indias borders. Conflict between India and one or more of its neighbours
due to climate-change induced migration, can be envisaged only between
India and Bangladesh, and possibly between India and Nepal.

Non-traditional security
implications

Migration into a high

population density
area can lead to further
challenges such as
expansion of slums
with inhuman living
conditions, spread of
disease, and conflict
over resources.

Key inferences for

future research

The social and economic impacts of migration are felt at various levels: on
the migrants, the region receiving the migrant community, as well as the
country of origin. Climate change-induced migration will cause a strain
on the natural and other resources in the country accepting migrants. In
South Asia, countries such as India are already under increasing population
pressure and rising expectations. The infrastructure in the country is yet to
fully support the needs of its burgeoning numbers. An additional inflow of
people will therefore create further pressures, and affect the capacity of the
state to meet its obligations towards its own people.
It can be expected that the bulk of the people from Bangladesh who
are under pressure to move, would migrate to India migrants move to
regions that are attractive because of pre-existing family or community
ties, economic opportunities and cultural affinity. Migration into a high
population density area can lead to further challenges such as expansion of
slums with inhuman living conditions, spread of disease, and conflict over
resources. The over-exploitation of natural resources and infrastructure can
lay the ground for a precarious situation in the receiving country, often
involving environmental degradation. People who choose to migrate move
from situations of vulnerability and often their arrival in safe territory
exposes them to new risks and threats. Lack of protection from state
authorities; lack of access to food, water, medical and other humanitarian
aid, difficulty in finding employment; and a feeling of dispossession and
helplessness, contribute to a sense of insecurity.

The linkage between climate change induced migration and its security
implications in the Indian neighbourhood are slowly coming to the forefront.
However, it is important to underline the fact that the linkage exists more
as a theoretical possibility than a certainty. This is because there remain
several unknowns/uncertainties about several issues that are integral to the
research. Some of these issues are listed below.
P Impact of climate change, particularly at the regional level, and its linkage
to global climate change patterns. A more intense and exhaustive study
of climate change impacts on the South Asian region need to be taken
up. With particular reference to migration and climate, it is important
to note the influence these changes will bring to bear on regions with
a high density of population. While it is clear that climate change is
already influencing monsoon cycles, estimation studies need to be
conducted on how this would adversely impact the agriculture sector.
According to FAO, 45% of the variation in Indias GDP over the last
fifty years can be explained on the basis of precipitation fluctuations.

The linkage between the sectors health and its employment potential,
and natural phenomena is thus amply clear, and only underscores the
need for further work.
In the context of South Asia, there is still a need to understand the ways
in which climate change impacts will cross political borders, particularly
how the Himalayan ecosystem will get impacted and then in turn affect
the Indian subcontinent.
It is difficult to gain access to migration-related statistics and details,
particularly the reasons that motivate migrants to travel, the duration of
stay, the number of irregular migrants and so on.
Security implications arising from climate change induced migration
per se are difficult to pin-point, as opposed to other causes such as
governmental intervention and development projects, lack of cooperation
between two adjacent countries and so on.
There is a need to assess the possible impacts of migration on key
resources such as land and water.

Mapping trends and

scenario building

If we are to make a definite linkage between climate change, migration

and its security implications in the Indian neighbourhood, we need further
substantiation. For a substantiation of the linkage, there is a need for scenario
building, which in turn requires numbers and statistics; a preliminary
identification of climate change hot spots using scientific data which will
immediately provide a priority area for intervention from a governance
stand-point, correlation of climate models and improved migration data
collection will allow greater predictability of future migration flows, mapping
of the coping strategies of the most vulnerable, an understanding of what
factors increase resilience and what factors increase vulnerability to climate
change driven migration and so on.

Managing migration:
a possible
framework?

Irrespective of future scenarios on the extent of climate change induced

migration and the attendant security implications (human security as well as
conflict) in the Indian neighbourhood, it will be necessary for governments
in vulnerable countries to put in place a policy framework that will address
the myriad challenges and stresses from climate change that could lead to
forced migration.
Specific attention needs to be paid to reduce the extent of forced
migration, the magnitude and intensity of risk exposure and the adaptive
capacity of the countries. Hard options can include the building of dykes,
sea walls, and so on, while the soft options could include extending R&D
assistance for alternative agricultural technologies and the desalinization of
water. Another mechanism to help deltaic and coastal regions, to reduce
risks of impacts of climate change is by more climate sensitive development
and encouraging protective mangrove forests on the coast.

Scarcity of data
on the Indian
neighbourhood

Part of the challenge of developing appropriate policy and governance

responses to the problem lies in the lack of adequate data on migration
numbers an inability to agree to use of parameters that would isolate
environmental/climate change factors from among the myriad drivers of
migration the world over. There is an absence of universally accepted
definitions which stem partially from the fact that migration is something
which has traditionally been addressed only at the national level. Within the
South Asian region, this scarcity of data poses more serious difficulty.

Conclusion

The discourse on migration has tended to securitise the issue by defining

the debate in statist terms. The scholarship on the subject has called for
tighter border controls and on the strict imposition of law and order in
the affected areas. However, given the international attention and sense of
urgency with which climate change as an issue is approached, the debate
on the issue needs to be redefined. Climate change-triggered migration
from extreme events is a special category. The sudden mass displacement of
people places such a strain on the physical and social resources of the host
area (whether in-country or across a frontier) that states are obliged to pay
attention to it, to take cognizance of its magnitude and its implications for
governance. The fact that climate change is accepted as a non-traditional
security concern could help redefine the migration debate that is currently
subsumed within the security discourse. Put differently, it awaits to be
seen if climate change is likely to be a priority shifter in the discourse
on migration, and whether it would serve to deflect attention from core
concerns over migration or focus on them.
The political situation in the Indian sub-continent, marked by tensions
between states, compounded by domestic tensions, has held the countries
back from cooperating on issues of mutual concern and interest. Notably,
the intersection of climate change, migration and security, is an area that
no one country can engage with on its own. Beginning with individual
country assessments and bilateral engagement on the issue, the region may
eventually need to put in place a comprehensive structure of rules and
norms that govern migration induced by climate change, and its security
implications for the region. Moving beyond a border-defined traditional
security perspective, this framework will need to maintain protection of
migrants rights and dignity as its centre-piece, while taking into account
the privileges and concerns of host communities.
With the increasing impact of environment (climate change triggered)
migration on economic and social development, the importance of
developing adequate governance mechanisms to handle the issue is receiving
increased international attention. However, the South Asian region remains
one of the few in the world that does not have an exclusive regional process
in place to manage migration.
In the long-term, migration from climate-affected regions will become a
reality that countries will need to contend with. Since mitigation of GHG
emissions will be insufficient to avoid some of the impacts that may lead to

The political situation

in the Indian subcontinent, marked
by tensions between
states, compounded
by domestic tensions,
has held the countries
back from cooperating
on issues of mutual
concern and interest.

Part of the challenge of

developing appropriate
policy and governance
responses to the
problem lies in the
lack of adequate data
on migration numbers
an inability to agree
what parameters
to use in isolating
environmental/climate
change factors from
among the myriad
drivers of migration the
world over.

migration (such as sea level rise and precipitation fluctuations), adaptation

at all levels is a necessity. Here, migration can be seen as an adjustment
mechanism of first resort or a survival mechanism of last resort.
While international agreements, treaties and systems in place at the
international, regional and national levels, do not take cognizance of
migration due to environmental hazards, there are rules and norms in
order that address the humanitarian and other aspects with regard to
environmental hazards and disasters, but few explicitly recognize the
interplay between ecosystems and movement of people. It is clear that
situations involving relocation of individuals call for a humanitarian
response, relief measures and policy responses that factor in non-traditional
security risks and threats. It also necessitates both the country of origin
and host country to collaborate to pre-empt the risks and threats and
prepare to effectively manage them. While at the global level, there is a
need to develop both international migration policy responses, and evolve
policies to address internal displacement, a policy dialogue is required
in the South Asian region to understand the impacts climate change on
the Indian neighbourhood. While there should be a focus as to how the
countries would be affected by climate change induced migration need to
tackle issues that may trigger migration (from areas in Nepal, Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka, amongst others); equally important is a focus on examining the
accommodation and resilience capacity of host countries.

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For further details, contact

Devika Sharma
Associate Fellow, CeRES
Tel.
The Energy and Resources Institute (T E R I )
Fax
Darbari Seth Block
IHC Complex, Lodhi Road
E-mail
New Delhi 110 003
Web

24682100 or 41504900
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India +91 Delhi (0) 11
devikas@teri.res.in
www.teriin.org