Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
interactions.(UM)
A.A.Samah,OoiSeeHai,FadzilMohd.NorandKumaren
Methodology
ClimatologyMSLP&ATcalculatedbyaveraging
monthlydatafrom19712000
SiberianHighIndexwascalculatedbyfinding
out the maximum daily (from 6 hourly NC file)
outthemaximumdaily(from6hourlyNCfile)
andthenaveraged(ofthedailymaxvalues)
o o t y a ue
formonthlyvalue.
SiberianHighareadefinedat800 1200 E,400
600 N
SiberianHigh
Climatology
SHI n.m =
X n.m X m
SiberianHighIndex(yearly)ofAreaAveragedandMaximumAveraged
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
5
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
SiberianHighIndex(AreaAve)
SiberianHighIndex(MaxAve)
Fig.1:
Fi
1 Y
Yearly
l averaged
d Sib
Siberian
i hi
high
h iindex(SHI
d (SHI AAVE) - an index
i d calculated
l l t d
by averaging the mean SLP values over the defined area (80-1200E,40-60 0N
) and (SHI AvdMx) by averaging the daily maximum mean SLP over the same
defined area. Correlation coefficient : 0.89
SiberianHighIndex(NDJFMaveraged) AreaAveragedandMaximum
Averaged(801200 E,40600 N)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
SHI(AreaAve)
SHI(MaxAve)
Fig.2: NDJFM averaged Siberian High Index (SHI Area Ave)- light blue and
Siberian High Index (SHI Max Ave) black line over the same defined area.
Correlation coefficient : 0.91
2008
2
2007
2
2006
2
2005
2
2004
2
2003
2
2002
2
2001
2
2000
2
1999
1
1998
1
1997
1
1996
1
1995
1
1994
1
1993
1
1992
1
1991
1
1990
1
1989
1
1988
1
1987
1
1986
1
1985
1
1984
1
1983
1
1982
1
1981
1
1980
1
1979
1
1978
1
1977
1
1976
1
1975
1
1974
1
1973
1
1972
1
1971
1
0.0
ArcticOscillationandSiberianHigh
ArcticOscillation
NonseasonalSLPvariationsnorthof200N,characterizedbySLP
anomaliesofonesignintheArcticandanomaliesofoppositesign
in mid latitude centered about37
inmidlatitude,centered
about 3745
450N(ThompsonandWallace
N (Thompson and Wallace
(1998).
Fig. 3. Arctic Oscillation phases and its influence over northern hemisphere (photo
courtesy: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/AO_NAO.htm and J
Wallace, Univ. of Washington).
Result:
ArcticOscillationandSiberianAirTemperature
AOI(NDJFM)
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
AirTempanom(aveNDJFM)
Fig.4:ArcticOscillationandairtemperatureanomalies(801200E,40600N)
averagedoverNDJFM.
d
NDJFM
Correlationcoefficient:0.65
Airte
emp.Anomalies(0 C)
C
3
1984
3
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
AOI
ArcticOscillationandAirTemperatureanomalies(averagedNDJFM)
AirTemperatureduringAOPositiveandNegative
Fig.5:(left)AirtemperaturesatSiberianhighareaareabovetheaverage
temperatureduringAOpositivephase.
( i h ) Ai
(right)AirtemperaturesoverSiberianareaarelower[colder]thanaverageduring
Sib i
l
[ ld ] h
d i
AOnegativephase.
AirTemperatureandSHI
SHI d Ai T
SHIandAirTemperatureAnomalies(NDJFMave)
t
A
li (NDJFM
)
2.0
1.5
2008
8
2007
7
2006
6
2005
5
2004
4
2003
3
2002
2
2001
1
2000
0
1999
9
1998
8
1997
7
1996
6
1995
5
1994
4
1993
3
1992
2
1991
1
1990
0
1989
9
1988
8
1987
7
1986
6
1985
5
1984
4
1983
3
1982
2
1981
1
1980
0
1979
9
1978
8
1977
7
1976
6
1975
5
1974
4
1973
3
0.5
0
1972
2
0.0
1971
1
SHI
0.5
1.0
2
1
1.5
5
2.0
3
SHI
ATanom
Fig.6.RelationshipbetweenSHIanddefinedSHareaairtemperature.As
theairtemperaturelower,theSHIvalueishigher.
Correlation coefficient is 0.56
Correlationcoefficientis
0.56
airtemp.anomalies(0 C)
1.0
ArcticOscillationandSealevelPressure
Fig.7:SLPanomaliesduring2phasesofAO.(left)SLPanomaliesduringpositiveAO.The
Fig.
7: SLP anomalies during 2 phases of AO. (left) SLP anomalies during positive AO. The
SLPoverSiberianhighareaarerelativelylowerthanaverage.
(right)SLPanomaliesduringnegativeAO.TheSLPovertheSiberianhighisrelativelyhigher
thanaverage.
AOIandSHI
SiberianHighIndexandArcticOscillation(aveNDJFM)
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
SHI
AOI
Fig.8.:Winteraverage(NDJFM)SiberianhighindexandAOindex
(
(correlationcoefficient=0.51)
l i
ffi i
0 51)
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
0.5
1971
0.0
ENSOandSiberianhigh
ENSO
ElNinoLaNina
Fig. 9: Effects on weather during boreal winter (for El Nino and La Nina phases).
(photo courtesy :
http://www.srh.weather.gov/srh/jetstream/tropics/enso_impacts.htm)
SiberianAirtemperatureandENSOphases
Fig.10.(above)Airtemperature
g
(
)
p
anomaliesduringElNioyears
(below)airtemperaturesanomalies
duringLaNiayears.
SiberianAirtemperatureandSOI
1.0
2.0
.0
3.0
3
SOI(NDJFMave)
ATanom(NDJFMave)
Fig.11.SiberianairtemperatureandSOI.ThevaluesareNDJFMaveraged.TheairtemperaturedataandSH
indexwillbetestwithSOIfromhereafter.
AirTempaanomalies(0C)
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
0
1978
0.0
1977
1976
1.0
1975
1974
2.0
1973
1972
3.0
1971
SOI(p
pertenth)
SOI and Air Temperature anomalies over defined Siberian high area (averaged NDJFM)
SOIandAirTemperatureanomaliesoverdefinedSiberianhigharea(averagedNDJFM)
SLPandENSOPhases
Fig.12.compositeofSLPanomalies(averagedNDJFM)duringstrongElNio
years(1972,1982,1991,1997).
Fig.13.SLPanomalies(averagedNDJFM)duringstrongLaNiayears
(1973,1975,1988).
MAM
0.17
0.47
0.23
0.23
JJA
0.07
0.41
0.37
0.10
SON
0.12
0.36
0.51
0.10
SHI\SOI
\
NDJF
NDJF
0.10
MAMJ
0.03
JASO
0.13
MAMJ
JASO
0.28
0
28
0.31
0.28
0
28
0.45
0.15
0
15
0.43
DJF
0.15
0.32
0.49
0.26
Researchofmygroupinthis
area.
1.ClimatologyoftheColdSurgeandBorneo
Vortex(NCEP)
2 I
2.IntensiveObservationalwork.
i Ob
i
l
k
3.ModelsimulationsusingWRF.
JJA
ND
JF
A case study of
CS and BV
Before Surge
During Surge
ColdSurgesandBorneoVortexand
DeepOrganisedConvection.
DrivingForceoftheStudyofCS
Driving
Force of the Study of CS
andBorneoVortexisthe
developmentofDeepOrganised
and Sustained Convections in
andSustainedConvectionsin
MalaysiaandIndonesia.
09012009 at 0230Z
N
Nanyang,
13 JJanuary 2009
State
Station
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Jan
17
Jan
18
Jan
19
Jan
Sarawak
Kuching
0.2
38.0
60.0
1.0
5.0
5.0
21.0
102.
0
6.0
0.2
0.0
128.
0
6.0
11.0
0.0
190.
0
21.0
50.0
Sri
Aman
Kapit
Sibu
Bintulu
0.4
5.0
6.0
0.0
T
60.0
0.2
29.0
27.0
83.0
18.0
9.0
0.6
0.4
2.0
48.0
26.0
1.0
5.0
6.0
19.0
39.0
T
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.3
2.0
17.0
13.0
25.0
55.0
176.
0
48.0
32.0
48.0
25.
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
95.0
49.0
227.
0
39.0
14.0
27.0
T
1.0
1.0
7.0
7.0
20.0
2.0
1.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
T
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.6
23.0
7.0
32.0
101.
0
6.0
34.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
Kinabalu
Kudat
0.6
0.0
19.
0
56.0
0.4
3.0
2.0
14.0
34.0
15.0
19.0
3.0
66.0
10.0
17.0
11.0
34.0
114.
0
0.0
37.0
31.0
15.0
24.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
18.
0
0.0
5.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
Tawau
1.0
0.0
7.0
48.0
14.0
0.2
8.0
14.0
29.
0
0.0
0.0
Miri
Limbang
Rainfall in mm
----- -------------KUCHING
SRI AMANI
KAPIT
SIBU
8 Jan
107
11
17
8
9 Jan
102
58
3
3
10 Jan
187
86
10
142
11 Jan
129
47
1
45
12 Jan
5
0
13
23
20
Jan
21
Ja
n
0.0
0.0
InteractionswithTopography,
WRFStudy
CaseStudyoftheBorneoVortex
1120th Jan2010.
Someresults.
IntensiveObservational
Intensive
Observational
StudiesinNorthofBorneo.
V in knots
U knots
RH
Figure 10b: Vertical profiles of (top) meridional winds [in knots, with northerlies <= 30 kts as shaded] , (center)
zonal winds [with easterlies <= 30 kts as shaded] and (bottom) relative humidity [in %, shaded => 80 %] at
Kuching from 00 UTC 13 January to 04 UTC .
CaseStudyoftheBorneo
Case
Study of the Borneo
th
th
Vortex7 15 Jan2009
ObservationalStudiesBorneoVortexinKuching.
-500
-100
-600
-700
-200
-800
-300
-900
-400
-1000
20
40
60
80
-500
20
40
60
80
20
40
60
80
20
40
60
80
-100
-600
-700
-200
800
-800
300
-300
-900
-400
-1000
20
40
60
80
-500
500
-100
-600
-200
-700
-800
-300
-900
-400
-1000
20
40
60
80
1130
1430
1730
0530
Diurnal Cycle of
Cloud Cluster
2030
0230
2330
TheImpactoftheConvection
The
Impact of the Convection
associatedwiththeBorneo
VortexonGlobalCirculation.
Figure 7a: Averaged 200 hPa velocity potential (contours, 106 m2 s-1 ) and divergent winds
(vectors, ms-1 ) ) for the periods (top) 6 10 January 2010; (center) 11 15 January 2010;
and (bottom) 16 20 January 2010.
Figure 7b: Averaged 200 hPa streamfunction (contours, 106 m2 s-1 ) and rotational winds (vectors, ms-1 ) ) for the
periods (top) 6 10 January 2010; (center) 11 15 January 2010; and (bottom) 16 20 January 2010.
Figure 7c: Hadley Circulation (m/s, averaged between 1100 E and 117.50 E) for the periods (top) 6 10 January 2010; (center) 11
15 January 2010; and (bottom) 16 20 January 2010.
Figure 7d: Walker-type Circulation (m/s, averaged between 00 N and 100 N) for the periods (top) 6 10 January
2010; (center) 11 15 January 2010; and (bottom) 16 20 January 2010.
ComparisonbetweenNCEPand
ECWMF
Figure 1a: Averaged 200 hPa streamfunction (contours, 106 m2 s-1 ) and rotational winds
(vectors, ms-1 ) ) for the periods (top) 6 10 January 2010; (center) 11 15 January 2010;
and (bottom) 16 20 January 2010.
Figure 2a: Hadley Circulation (m/s) and relative humidity (%) averaged between 1100 E and 117.50 E) for
the periods (top) 6 10 January 2010; (center) 11 15 January 2010; and (bottom) 16 20 January
2010.
Figure 2b: Walker-type Circulation (m/s) and relative humidity (%) averaged between 00 N and 100 N) for the
periods (top) 6 10 January 2010; (center) 11 15 January 2010; and (bottom) 16 20 January 2010.
Conclusion.
1 This talk showed that the initiation of cold surge from the Siberian High is due to
1.
the push factor i.e. increase of pressure gradient and southward troughing of
the Siberian High which is influence by the subtropical jet.
2. The cold surge is channelled by the topography of land and sea towards the
South China Sea (SCS)
3. The surge increase the wind velocity over the SCS and the dry subsiding air start
to become very moist due to evaporation from the warm sea surface.
4. The pull factor constitute the monsoon trough or ITZC that is now near Borneo
island.
island
5. The alignment of the Borneo island and Sumatra/Peninsular and its position
across the equator contributed to the formation of a cyclonic vortex known as the
Borneo Vortex. There is also a circum-island circulation that contribute to a zone
of convergence associated with the Borneo Vortex and a zone of divergence near
Tawau where a zone of low level diffluence was observed.
6. This cyclonic vortex ordered the process of deep convection and feed the moist
air into the system to sustain rainfall for more than 48 hours.
7 There is also a diurnal influence of the spatial location of convection as observed
7.
earlier by Houze et al.
8. The deep convection of the Borneo vortex was observed to strengthen the
ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation in both Hemisphere and also the
E t W t Walker
East-West
W lk circulation.
i l ti
9. Via the Hadley Circulation the Borneo Vortex will then feedback into the
subtropical jetstream hence completing the cycle.