Peter A.

Brown, Assistant Director,

(203) 535-6203
Tim Malloy, Assistant Director
(203) 645-8043
Rubenstein Associates, Inc.,
Public Relations
Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
FOR RELEASE: APRIL 9, 2015

PAUL BLOOMS AS CLINTON WILTS IN COLORADO, IOWA, VIRGINIA,

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATE POLL FINDS
---

COLORADO: Paul 44 Clinton 41

IOWA: Paul 43 Clinton 42
VIRGINIA: Clinton 47 Paul 43
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clintons lead is wilting against leading Republican presidential
candidates in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, and she finds herself in a
close race with U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in each state, according to a Quinnipiac
University Swing State Poll released today. In head-to-head matchups, every Republican candidate
effectively ties her in Colorado and almost all Republicans effectively tie her in Iowa.
Secretary Clinton has lost ground in almost every matchup in Colorado and Iowa since a
February 18 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The
Swing State Poll focuses on key states in the presidential election.
One bright spot for Clinton is Virginia, the largest of the three states, where she leads all
Republicans, including 47 40 percent over Bush, compared to a 42 42 percent tie in February.
Voters in each state say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Her overall favorability has
dropped significantly in Colorado and Iowa, while Virginia is unchanged. Favorability ratings for
the Republicans are lackluster, at best.
These numbers are a boost for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky as he formally launches
his campaign, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Ominous for Hillary Clinton is the broad scope of the movement today compared to her
showing in Quinnipiac Universitys mid-February survey. It isnt just one or two Republicans
who are stepping up; its virtually the entire GOP field that is running better against her.
Thats why it is difficult to see Secretary Clintons slippage as anything other than a
further toll on her image from the furor over her e-mail.
-more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/April 9, 2015 page 2

In all three of these states, more, and in Colorado many more, registered voters say she
is not honest and trustworthy, Brown added. Voters do think she is a strong leader a key
metric but unless she can change the honesty perception, running as a competent but dishonest
candidate has serious potential problems.
Colorado
In the presidential race in Colorado, Paul gets 44 percent to Clintons 41 percent and other
Republicans are effectively tied as well:

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida gets 41 percent to Clintons 40 percent;

She ties former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 41 41 percent;
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets 42 percent to her 41 percent;
Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;
She gets 41 percent to Bushs 38 percent;
Clinton gets 41 percent to 39 percent for New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.
Clinton gets a negative 41 51 percent favorability, compared to 46 47 percent in

February. Favorability ratings for the Republicans are:

Negative 22 48 percent for Christie;

Negative 29 44 percent for Bush;
36 31 percent for Paul;
35 35 percent for Huckabee;
26 23 percent for Walker with 50 percent who dont know enough about him to form an
opinion;
31 26 percent for Rubio;
Negative 28 34 percent for Cruz.
Colorado voters say 56 38 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Her e-mail

controversy is very important or somewhat important as an issue in their vote, 51 percent of

voters say, while 49 percent say not so important or not important at all.
The e-mail issue makes them less likely to vote for Clinton, 42 percent of voters say, while
55 percent say it wont affect their vote. Only 34 percent of voters say shes given satisfactory
answers on the e-mail issue, while 57 percent say serious questions remain.
But 51 percent of Colorado voters say a Congressional investigation of Clintons e-mails
would be politically motivated.
-more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/April 9, 2015 page 3

Hillary Clinton still has a mountain or two to climb to win the hearts of Coloradans
who dont trust her, said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. The email controversy is opening doors to candidates who had little traction as Hillary Clinton gets bad
numbers on trust and honesty.
Iowa
Every Republican is tied or close to Clinton in Iowa:

She gets 41 percent to 39 percent for Christie:

She gets 41 percent to 40 percent for Bush;
Paul at 43 percent to Clintons 42 percent;
Huckabee ties her 42 42 percent;
Clinton edges Walker 44 40 percent;
She gets 43 percent to 40 percent against either Rubio or Cruz.
Iowa voters give Clinton a split 45 47 percent favorability rating, down from 49 40

percent February 18. Favorability ratings for the Republicans are:

Negative 27 39 percent for Christie;

Negative 31 38 percent for Bush;
35 29 percent for Paul;
41 31 percent for Huckabee;
25 24 percent for Walker with 50 percent who dont know enough about him to form an
opinion;
24 21 percent for Rubio with 54 percent who dont know enough about him;
Negative 26 31 percent for Cruz.
Iowa voters say 49 43 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Voters are

divided 50 49 percent on whether the e-mail scandal is important to their vote. While 37 percent
of voters say they are less likely to vote for Clinton because of this issue, 58 percent say it will
make no difference in their vote.
Clinton has given satisfactory answers on the e-mail scandal, 34 percent of voters say, but
54 percent say serious questions remain. Voters say 53 40 percent that a Congressional
investigation of the e-mail scandal would be politically motivated.
Iowa epitomizes the image of a swing state. When Hillary Clinton is matched against
seven of the GOP hopefuls, all of those mythical matchups have a difference of four percentage
points or less, Brown said.
-more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/April 9, 2015 page 4

Virginia
Clinton leads Bush 47 40 percent in Virginia, compared to a 42 42 percent tie February
18. She gets 47 percent to Pauls 43 percent, her closest race in the Old Dominion. In other races:

Clinton tops Christie 46 40 percent;

Clinton over Huckabee 48 40 percent;
Clinton tops Walker 47 40 percent;
She beats Rubio 48 40 percent;
Clinton tops Cruz 49 39 percent.
The Democrat gets a split 48 45 percent favorability rating, compared to 48 44 percent

in February. Favorability ratings for Republicans are:

Negative 32 38 percent for Bush;

Negative 31 41 percent for Christie;
34 31 percent for Paul;
34 36 percent for Huckabee;
26 20 percent for Walker with 53 percent who dont know enough about him to form an
opinion.
29 25 percent for Rubio;
Negative 30 38 percent for Cruz.
Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Virginia voters say 52 40 percent. Her e-mail

scandal is important to their vote, 51 percent of voters say, while 47 percent say its not so
important or not important at all. The e-mail issue makes 39 percent less likely to voter for her,
while 56 percent say it makes no difference.
Serious questions about the e-mail scandal remain, 54 percent of voters say, while 38
percent say Clinton has given satisfactory answers. Virginia voters say 51 46 percent a
Congressional investigation into the e-mail scandal would be politically motivated.
Of the three states tested, Virginia seems to be the friendliest toward Hillary Clinton,
perhaps a continuing reflection of the Old Dominions leftward drift over the past decade. Only
yesterday, it seemed, it was deeply red, Brown said.
From March 29 April 7 Quinnipiac University surveyed:

894 Colorado voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points;
948 Iowa voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points;
961 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public

opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia,
Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow
us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
4

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Clinton
Christie
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

41%
39
4
9
8

41%
39
4
6
10

46%
40
2
5
7

2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Clinton
Bush
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

41%
38
4
10
7

41%
40
4
6
8

47%
40
3
5
6

3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Clinton
Paul
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

41%
44
3
6
7

42%
43
3
4
9

47%
43
2
2
6

4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Clinton
Huckabee
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

41%
41
3
7
8

42%
42
3
5
9

48%
40
2
3
6

5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Scott Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Clinton
Walker
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

41%
42
3
5
9

44%
40
2
4
10

47%
40
2
2
8

6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Clinton
Rubio
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

40%
41
3
7
9

43%
40
3
4
10

48%
40
2
2
7

7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Clinton
Cruz
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

42%
41
3
6
8

43%
40
3
5
9

49%
39
1
4
7

8. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about her?

Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED

CO

IA

VA

41%
51
6
2

45%
47
5
2

48%
45
4
2

9. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED

CO

IA

VA

22%
48
29
2

27%
39
31
4

31%
41
25
3

10. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
him?

Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED

CO

IA

VA

29%
44
25
2

31%
38
28
3

32%
38
28
2

11. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
him?

Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED

CO

IA

VA

36%
31
33
1

35%
29
35
1

34%
31
33
2

12. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED

CO

IA

VA

35%
35
29
2

41%
31
27
1

34%
36
28
1

13. Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED

CO

IA

VA

26%
23
50
1

25%
24
50
1

26%
20
53
2

14. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED

CO

IA

VA

31%
26
42
1

24%
21
54
2

29%
25
44
2

15. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
him?

Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED

CO

IA

VA

28%
34
36
1

26%
31
42
1

30%
38
31
1

21. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?

Yes
No
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

38%
56
6

43%
49
8

40%
52
7

22. Would you say that - Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not?

Yes
No
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

41%
36
23

43%
29
28

44%
33
23

23. Would you say that - Scott Walker is honest and trustworthy or not?

Yes
No
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

34%
26
41

31%
25
44

32%
23
44

24. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?

Yes
No
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

56%
39
5

62%
34
4

62%
35
3

25. Would you say that - Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not?

Yes
No
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

48%
33
19

49%
28
23

52%
30
19

26. Would you say that - Scott Walker has strong leadership qualities or not?

Yes
No
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

38%
24
37

34%
25
41

40%
23
38

27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton handled her job as Secretary
of State?

Approve
Disapprove
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

48%
47
5

53%
40
7

52%
43
5

28. As you may know, Hillary Clinton used a personal email address to conduct government
business while working as Secretary of State. How important is this issue to your vote
for President in the 2016 general election; very important, somewhat important, not so
important, or not important at all?

Very important
Somewhat important
Not so important
Not important at all
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

35%
16
18
31
-

29%
21
16
33
1

33%
18
18
29
1

29. If Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016, does her using a personal email
address to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State make you more
likely to vote for her in the general election, less likely, or doesn't it make a
difference?

More likely
Less likely
No difference
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

2%
42
55
2

3%
37
58
2

3%
39
56
2

30. Do you think Clinton has given satisfactory answers on this matter, or do you think
there are serious questions that remain to be answered?
CO
Satisfactory answers 34%
Questions remain
57
DK/NA
9

IA

VA

34%
54
12

38%
54
7

31. Do you support or oppose a congressional investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of
a personal email address to conduct government business while working as Secretary of
State?

Support
Oppose
DK/NA

CO

IA

VA

52%
43
5

47%
45
8

50%
45
5

32. Do you believe that a Congressional investigation into this matter is justified or is
politically motivated?
CO
Justified
45%
Politically motivatd 51
DK/NA
4

IA

VA

40%
53
6

46%
51
4