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TohokuEarthquakeandTsunamiAfterTwoYears:LessonsLearned|Tohoku

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TwoYearsLater:LessonsfromJapan'sTohoku
Earthquake
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TohokuEarthquakeandTsunamiAfterTwoYears:LessonsLearned|Tohoku

byBeckyOskin,SeniorWriter|March10,201303:37pmET

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Atripledisaster
earth,waterand
nuclearstruckJapan
onMarch11,2011,
whenthebiggest
earthquakeinits
historyrippedthe
seafloor.
Themagnitude9.0
Tohokuearthquake
andtsunamishattered
lives.Thedestruction
surprisedtheworld,
becausefewexpecteda
quakeortsunamiof
thatsizeevenin
seismicallyactive
Japan.Some300,000
peoplearestill
homeless,livingin
residentialcamps,
accordingtothe
Japanesegovernment.

AtremendousearthquakestruckJapantwoyearsagoonMarch11,2011.
Credit:USGS Viewfullsizeimage

http://www.livescience.com/27776tohokutwoyearslatergeology.html

Twoyearslater,
geologistsstillpuzzle
overTohoku.During
theearthquake,the
giantoffshorefaultthat
rupturedbehaved
differentlynearthe
surfacethanitdiddeep
belowtheEarth'scrust.
Thiswasunexpected,
andnow,scientists
think,itcouldhappen
elsewhere.No
subductionzoneissafe
fromamegaquake.
"Wecan'tassume
anymorethatthere'sa
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TohokuEarthquakeandTsunamiAfterTwoYears:LessonsLearned|Tohoku

subductionzonethatcan'tproducetheseverylargesubductionzoneearthquakesandtsunamis,"saidJeanne
Hardebeck,aseismologistattheU.S.GeologicalSurvey'sMenloPark,Calif.,office.
TohokualsoemphasizedthatmonitoringthecreakingEarthisn'tenoughwhenitcomestopredictingrisk.In
Japan,scientistshadforecastearthquakehazardbywatchingEarth'scrustdeform,andlookingatthe
country'sexcellentrecordofhistoricearthquakes.Basedonthoserecords,thesubductionzoneoffJapan
shouldneverhaveproducedamagnitude9.0quake,mostscientiststhought.Nowgeologistsbelievethey
needtolookfurtherintothepast,thousandsofyears,tocaptureafault'struehistory.
"Theinstrumentaldataandobservationsareabout120yearsold,butthehistoryofplatetectonicsisover4
billionyearsold,"saidFumikoTajima,aseismologistattheLudwigMaximilianUniversityinMunich,
Germany."Usingtheseismiccatalogtopredictanearthquakeislikeusingthedataforonesecond[ofEarth's
history].Thestatisticsarenotsufficientatall."
Indeed,theTohokuquakemayhavebeenthefinalnailinthecoffinforadyingconcept:thatfaultsproduce
thesamesizeearthquakeeverytime,andthattheyareregular,repeatableandpredictable.Whenitcomesto
earthquakehazards,thescienceisstillverymuchintheunknownunknowns,saidSethStein,aseismologist
atNorthwesternUniversity.[7CraziestWaysJapan'sEarthquakeAffectedEarth]
"Wenowrealizethatthingsaremuchmorevariableinspaceandtimethanwewouldliketobelieve,"Stein
toldOurAmazingPlanet."Thatinturncreatesadeepuncertaintyinourabilitytoforecastthefuture."
Invigoratingtsunamiscience
Japansitsaboveasubductionzone,acollisionzonebetweentwoofEarth'stectonicplates.Eastoftheisland
nation,oneplatedescendsbeneaththeother,bendingdownintotheplanet'sdeeperdepths.
Japan'sofficialseismichazardmapswerebasedonseveralcenturiesofearthquakerecords,aswellas
moderndeformationintheseafloor.Thisledthegovernmenttounderestimatebothearthquakeandtsunami
riskonlyamagnitude7.5wasforecastfortheregionhitbytheTohokuquake.
Buthintsofagiantwave,inA.D.869,hadbeenfoundfarinlandinSendai,atownwherethousandsdiedin
the2011tsunami.ManyresearchersbeforeTohokuhadpublishedthetsunamirecords,butearthquake
modelersdidn'tbelievethegeologicaldatabecausetheirmodels

Portionsof
housesandan
overturnedboatafloatinthe
Pacific.
Credit:U.S.Navy/Specialist
3rdClassAlexanderTidd.
Viewfullsizeimage

didn'treplicatethem,saidJamesGoff,atsunamigeologistattheUniversityofNewSouthWalesin
Australia.
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TohokuEarthquakeandTsunamiAfterTwoYears:LessonsLearned|Tohoku

"Whathasnowhappenedasaresultofthe2011earthquakeisagrowingrecognitionoftheincrediblevalue
ofanunderstandingoftsunamigeology,"Goffsaid.
Japanisnowheavilyinvestinginunderstandingitstsunamihistory,bringinginexpertsfromaroundthe
worldtosearchitscoastlinesforevidenceofancientwaves.Researchersarealsodevelopingnewmodelsto
betterunderstandhowquicklythesehistorictsunamismoved,howhightheywereandperhapsevenreveal
howbigtheearthquakesthatcausedthemwere.[History'sBiggestTsunamis]
TheTohokutsunamihashelpedwiththissearch.Thetsunamiwentsofarinlandthatthesedimentsitleft
behindaredifferentthanscientistsexpected,givingthoselookingforsignsofhistoricaltsunamisotherclues
tosearchfor.
"Thecommunityisrealizingthatwehavetomovebeyondjustlookingforthesandthat'sdepositedbythe
tsunami,"saidBruceJaffe,anoceanographerwiththeUSGSinSantaCruz,Calif.
JaffeandGoffwereinSendailastThursday(March8)foraworkshoponthetsunami,aswellashuntingfor
newdeposits.Jaffesaidhe'sfoundsignsoftheA.D.869JogantsunaminorthofSendai."Tsunamigeologists
arehavingtolearnhowtofindtsunamidepositsindifferentenvironmentsthanwe'velookedinthepast,"he
said.
Slowearthquakes
Japanisalsoinvestingmillionsofdollarsinoffshoremonitoringtofillinanotherknowledgegap.Ashallow
sectionofthesubductionzonethatwasn'tsupposedtobreakinanearthquakemovedinamassiveblock
duringTohoku,andwasresponsibleforthetsunami'smassivesize.[Infographic:HowJapan's2011
EarthquakeHappened]
Thisshallowzoneishardtoseewithonshoreseismicmonitoringinstruments,saidMarkSimons,a
geophysicistatCaltechinPasadena,Calif."Thebigfailurebeforethisearthquakeintermsofthegeodetic
communitywastheybiasedthemselvestothisbeliefthatthetrenchcouldn'tslipseismically,"hesaid.

Asimplemodel
ofasubduction
zone.
Credit:USGS
Viewfullsizeimage

Alongthesubductionzone,thefaultiswherethetwoplatesmeetinaplanarsurface.Themosaiclike
surfacehassomepartsthatstickandsomethatslidesmoothly.Thesestickyzonesarewhereearthquakes
strike.Thesmooth,slidingsections,whatgeologistscallcreep,aren'tsupposedtohaveearthquakes.
ButTohokuwasasurprise,becausetheentirefaultrippedapart,fromthesticky,deepdepthstothesmooth,
creepingsurface.Thetotaldisplacement,whichistherelativemovementbetweenthetwoplates,wasa
shocking260feet(80meters),bysomeestimates.
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TohokuEarthquakeandTsunamiAfterTwoYears:LessonsLearned|Tohoku

"Therewassignificantslipuptoandincludingthetrench,anareathatwasalwayscreepingandhadno
potentialforseismogenicslip.Thatwasasurprise,"Simonssaid.
Anotheroddity:Thedeeperpartofthefaultactedlikeanormalearthquake.Thefastshaking,thekindto
whichpeopleandbuildingsrespond,camefromhere.Buttheshallowerpartofthefaultmovedinaslow
earthquake.
Duringanearthquake,thesidesofafaultripapartlikeapieceofVelcro.Usually,itimmediatelysealsback
up.Astheruptureripplesalongthesurface,itwon'tpushupabigsectionofseafloorallatonce,becausethe
displacementmovesasmallsectionofearthatatime.Ripopen,sealbackup."Thisiswhatmostpeoplefelt,
anditwasnotmuchdifferentthanamagnitude8.0,"Simonssaid.
Butintheslowearthquake,thefaulthealsmoreslowly,somoreofitmovesatthesametime.During
Tohoku,theshallowfaultshiftedasasinglegiganticblock,andaccountedformuchofthetotalfault
movement.Thisiswhythetsunamiwassohuge,researcherscametorealize.Anareaofseafloorthesizeof
Connecticutjumpedanywherefrom16to30feet(5to10m),shovingwatertowardJapan.
"Itmovedtheoceanfloorinonebigcoherentpiece,andthatdisplacedalotofwateratthesametime,"
Hardebeck,oftheUSGS,said.
Betterwarnings,betterknowledge
ItwilllikelybeanotherthousandyearsbeforetheTohokusegmentofthefaultunleashesanother
megaquake.Thetemblorwasatotalrelease,wipingoutalltheaccumulatedstressbetweenthetwoplates,a
recentstudyfound.ThebigquestionforJapaniswhatwillhappenimmediatelytothesouth,nearNankai.
AfterTohoku,geologistsareevenlesssureoftheanswer,buttheyareimprovingmeanstokeeppeoplesafe.
GovernmentwarningsofthesizeoftheTohokuearthquakeandtsunamiwerebasedonthedeeperrupture,
wheretheearthquakestarted,andthusunderestimatedtheenormityofboth,Tajima,ofLMU,said.While
hundredsofthousandsoflivesweresavedbythewarnings,thousandswerelostbecausepeoplebelievedthe
country'sprotectiveseawallswouldhold,governmentreportsfound.Somealsomissedthelater,revised
warnings.
Afterthe1995Kobeearthquake,whichkilled6,000people,Japanstrengtheneditsbuildings,bridgesand
roads.IntheTohokuearthquake,lessthan10percentofthedeathswerefromshakingdamage,accordingto
UNESCOreports.Mostofitsvictims,15,870people,drownedinthetsunami.[Related:Japan'sBiggest
Earthquakes]
Japanisnowspendingmillionsonamassivenetworkofoceanbottomsensorsandtidalgaugestoprevent
anothermissedestimate.Theseismicnetworkwillalsohelpanswersomeoftheoutstandingquestionsabout
thefault'sbehaviornearthesurface,themissinggapinthemodels.
Similarseafloorwarningnetworksexistnowhereelseintheworld,evenintheUnitedStates,wherethe
CascadiaSubductionZonehaspummeledtheNorthwestwithtsunamismanytimesinhistory.However,
thereisaU.S.andworldwidetsunamiwarningsystem.Californiahopestobuilditsownearlywarning
network,modeledonJapan's.
"Thereisnoguaranteeofearthquakesafetyunlessyouprepareforitproperly,"Tajimasaid."Wedohavethe
abilitytoissueanalarm,sothatpeoplenearthecoastcanmovetoahigherareabecauseoftsunamis.People
shouldknowthatthere'snoguaranteeinanearthquakearea,butiftheypreparefor[the]risksassociatedwith
tsunamisproperly,thentheycanreduceoravoidhazards."
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TohokuEarthquakeandTsunamiAfterTwoYears:LessonsLearned|Tohoku

Forgeoscientists,Tohokuwasareminderofthecomplexitiesofnature,Stein,ofNorthwesternUniversity
said."It'sreallystartingtosinkinthattheworldismuchmorecomplicatedthanwewouldhavelikedto
believe."
EmailBeckyOskinorfollowher@beckyoskin.Followus@OAPlanet,FacebookorGoogle+.Original
articleonLiveScience'sOurAmazingPlanet.

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AuthorBio

BeckyOskin
BeckyOskinisaseniorwriterforLiveScience.Shecoversearthscience,climatechangeandspace,aswell
asgeneralsciencetopics.BeckywasasciencereporteratThePasadenaStarNewsandhasfreelancedfor
NewScientistandtheAmericanInstituteofPhysics.Sheearnedamaster'sdegreeingeologyfromCaltech,a
bachelor'sdegreefromWashingtonStateUniversity,andagraduatecertificateinsciencewritingfromthe
UniversityofCalifornia,SantaCruz.
BeckyOskinon

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Addacomment...
Commentusing...

TrpQeayWorksatFootlooker
Thisgavemealotofinformationformyessaysforearthquakes!!
ReplyLikeFebruary27,2014at4:14pm
RobyneJones TopCommenterWollongong,NewSouthWales
Ifthediagramofthesubductionzonewasflippedhorizontallysothe'stuck'bitisontheleft,it
wouldgiveabetterindicationofthesituationinJapan.The'stuck'bitslippedandflattened,
becominglower,andallowingoceantoflowovertheland.Ithinkareasofpreviouslandare
stillcoveredinwater?PleasecorrectmeifI'mwrong.
ReplyLikeMarch11,2013at9:41pm
BrianSkiffington
Prideiscostly.
ReplyLikeMarch11,2013at4:59pm
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