1st North American Pavement Management Conference (1985)

A SIMPLE SOClOECONOMlC METHODOLOGY FOR

ROAD IMPROVEMENT

BERGER, Louis
Chairman of the Board
Louis Berger International, Inc.

..
?,

GREENSTEIN, Jacob
Chief Soils Engineer
Louis Berger International, Inc.

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BERGER, LOUIS and GREENSTEIN, JACOB

The p a p e r p r e s e n t s a methodology f o r r o a d improvement

developed and implemented i n T h a i l a n d from 1980 t o 1 9 8 4 . Approxi m a t e l y 40,000 k i l o m e t e r s of r o a d s were i n v e n t o r i e d , and 3,000
k i l o m e t e r s , c o m p r i s i n g 85 r o a d s e c t i o n s t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o u n t r y ,
were s e l e c t e d as h a v i n g t h e h i g h e s t p r i o r i t y f o r improvement.
F i v e r o a d improvement a l t e r n a t i v e s were a n a l y z e d , namely, recons t r u c t i o n , r e h a b i l i t a t i o n , o v e r l a y , s e a l c o a t , and r o u t i n e m a i n tenance.
A socioeconomic a n a l y s i s was c a r r i e d o u t t o d e t e r m i n e
p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s and n a t i o n a l , r e g i o n a l , and l o c a l economic
growth f o r e c a s t s . A macroeconomic f o r e c a s t i n g approach was
a d o p t e d t o d e t e r m i n e t r a f f i c growth r a t e s .
Improvement b e n e f i t s
r e l a t e mainly t o r e d u c t i o n s i n r o a d u s e r and maintenance c o s t s
f o r t h e improved r o a d s .
The economic i n d i c a t o r s a n a l y z e d were
i n t e r n a l r a t e of r e t u r n ( I R R ) , b e n e f i t c o s t r a t i o a t a 15 p e r c e n t d i s c o u n t r a t e ( B / C r a t i o ) , o p e n i n g o r f i r s t y e a r r a t e of
r e t u r n (FYRR), and n e t p r e s e n t v a l u e i n opening y e a r d i s c o u n t e d
Because of f u n d i n g l i m i t a t i o n s , t h e 3 , 0 0 0 k i l o a t 15 p e r c e n t .
meters of r o a d s i n i t i a l l y s e l e c t e d a s h a v i n g t h e h i g h e s t p r i o r i t y f o r improvement were r a n k e d i n o r d e r of p r i o r i t y ; of t h e s e ,
1 , 2 0 0 k i l o m e t e r s w e r e s e l e c t e d f o r ' i m m e d i a t e improvement.
The
I R R w a s used t o d e t e r m i n e p r i o r i t i e s i n t h e i n v e s t m e n t program
and t h e FYRR t o e s t a b l i s h t h e o r d e r - o f p r o j e c t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n .

KEYWORDS: r o a d improvement, economic p r i o r i t y i n d i c a t o r s ,

i n t e r n a l r a t e of r e t u r n , b e n e f i t c o s t r a t i o , f i r s t y e a r b e n e f i t
r a t i o , r o a d u s e r b e n e f i t s , and s t r u c t u r a l and f u n c t i o n a l

evaluation.

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INTRODUCTION
Nearly 40 million people in Thailand (70-80 percent of the
total population) are farmers with an annual national agricultural income per capita of between $US 250 and $US 290 from
1978 to 1982. The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and
other lending agencies all play an important role in financing
Thai road projects. However; the policy of both the Thailand
Road Authority and of the lending agencies is that all proposed
road improvements must be demonstrated economically feasible.
To achieve this objective, a special road improvement
methodology was developed. It required an inventory of both
pavement roughness and surface cracking, measured along the
entire 40,000-kilometer network. To determine priorities,
traffic volumes were determined both by physical counts and by
projections from an agricultural-economic growth study. In
addition, structural evaluations of the pavements were made,
where necessary, using nondestructive techniques, and a
benefit-cost analysis was performed.

Using this methodology, 85 road sections, comprising 3,000

kilometers, were selected as having the highest priority for
road improvement. However, because of funding limitations, a
further screening was required to establish the ranking order
for each of these sections. Five reconstruction -alternatives,
rehabilitation, overlay, seal coating, and routkne maintenance,
were analyzed using economic priority indicators such as IRR,
FYRR, NPV, and B/C ratio. The methodology described in detail
in this paper is currently being used by the Thailand Road
Authority to improve, overlay, rehabilitate; and reconstruct
1;200 kilometers of the highest ranking priority roads.
1.0 SCREENING STUDY

The screening study of national and provincial road

networks had three major objectives:
(1) To establish an order of priority for road improvement
at a prefeasibility study level;

(2) To identify individual road improvements that are':

likely to be economically feasible in the next 5 to 7 years;
and
(3) To identify the roads for which improvement or
construction should begin during the 5- to 7-year period; under
budget and construction capability limitations.

The screening process included four stages. The first stage

eliminated the number of roads currently under study, design; or
construction. The second stage eliminated paved road links that
would not require resurfacing or reconstruction for the next 7 to
8 years and unpaved roads that would not achieve the minimum

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first year benefit ratio (FYB). In Thailand (1980), a minimum

FYI3 of 12 percent was used, and this ratio was equated with an
AADT forecast of 200 or less. The roads that failed the second
screening were analyzed for potential development benefits, and
those with such potential were moved to the fourth stage.
Roads passing the second screening stage were then analyzed
at varying levels of improvement and subjected to an FYB test.
Roads with an FYJ3 of less than 12 percent (in 1980) were eliminated. Roads passing the third stage plus those with development
potential by-passed from the second stage were subjected to a
benefit-cost analysis extending over the projected life of the
road, defined as 15 years from the year of opening to traffic.
The results of this analysis are presented in the form of
the economic internal rate of return (IRR); ranked from the
highest to a cut-off point of 12 percent (1980); together with
the cost of construction. It should be noted that the screening
study is a comparative one in that the level of feasibility of
each road passing the fourth screening stage is ranked. Thus;
inaccuracies caused by the above simplification apply to all
roads and should not affect the final ranking of a road by IRR.
Using this methodology, 85 road sections;.;comprising 3 ; 000
kilometers, were selected as having the highest priority for road
improvement. Because of funding limitations, however, a further
socioeconomic evaluation was carried out to rank these roads to
establish which sections should be improved first.
2.0

SOCIOECONOMIC METHODOLOGY FOR ROAD IMPROVEMELJT

Five road improvement alternatives were analyzed:

(1)

Construction of new pavement system.

(2)
Rehabilitation with granular base course and asphalt
concrete surface course, the granular thickness varying between
15 and 30 centimeters and the asphalt concrete between 5 and 10
centimeters.

(3)
Asphalt concrete overlay, usually between 5 and 12
centimeters.

(4)

Asphalt seal coat.

(5)

Routine maintenance.

The socioeconomic evaluation was carried out according to

the following methodology.

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2.1

To determine traffic growth rates on a consistent basis, a

macroeconomic forecasting approach was adopted. The twin
objectives of this approach were to produce acceptable overall
growth rates by vehicle type and to differentiate between roads
to the maximum extent possible. Traffic growth was determined as
a function of the growth in population and in product per capita
at the changwat (local) or regional level. The population and
economic forecasts by changwat were derived from regional and
national forecasts, thus ensuring consistency. For each road,
the following social and economic parameters were determined:

Population and Economic Forecasts

(1) Population density, from 11 to 583 per square

kilometers.
(2) Agricultural employment as a percentage of the
economically active population, from 50 to 80 percent.
(3) Agricultural production as a percentage of gross
changwat production, from 20 to 60 percent.

(4)Houses with motorcycles and private vehicles, from 10 to

60 percent and 3 to 16 percent respectively (1980).
The general conclusion obtained by analyzing the
relationship between these socioeconomic indicators is that
traffic growth rates are dependent on the absolute level of
development of each road section.
J

The population of Thailand is about 50 million, and most ofi.

these inhabitants are engaged in agriculture. The population is
well distributed throughout the country, and the capital city of
Bangkok is the only true metropolitan area; accounting for 11
percent of the total population.
Population projections over the study forecasting ,period
were determined for national, regional; and changwat levels. The
projected national population in the year 2000 is 64 m i l ~ o n ,34
percent higher than that for the study base year of 1982.
Bangkok's population is expected to be 8.6 million, a 58 percent
increase over 1982. The changwat population growth rate per
annum varies mainly between 0.1 and 4.7 percent. This analysis
was done for 54 changwats and was based on population data for
annual growth rates since 1970 and the assumption that the
government policy of discouraging migration to Bangkok is
successful.
The gross domestic product (GDP) was the basic economic
indicator used to analyze Thai economic growth. The national
annual GDP growth rate for both 1971-1976 and 1976-1981 averaged
7.1 percent. A change in the sectorial composition of the Thai

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economy is in progress, with manufacturing output increasing its

share of the GDP at the expense of agriculture; the largest
sector of the GDP.
The GDP contribution of agriculture; forestry; and fishing
declined by 25 percent from 1971 to 1982 while the share of
manufacturing increased 31 percent. This structural change in
the economy is expected to continue. Although there is room for
further growth in the agricultural sector; industry will expand
much faster in the next few years; overtaking agriculture as the
main contributor to the GDP. This is occurring despite the fact
that industry now employs only 10 percent of the workforce;
compared with the 70 to 80 percent engaged in agriculture.
To analyze the population and economic forecasts, the
following economic indicators were determined for each region in
Thailand :
(1) Gross regional product (GRP). This varied between $US
2 and $US 5 billion in 1982 and was estimated to vary between
$US 5 and US$ 15 billion in the year 2000, with a gross domestic
product of $US 45 billion in the year 2000.
1.

(2) Gross regional product growth rate pea annuin. This

varied mainly between 4.5 and 8.5 percent with a GDP-growth rate
of 6.0 and 5.3 percent from 1986 to 1991 and from 1991 to 2000
respectively.
(3) GRP per capita growth rate. This varied mainly between
2.5 and 5.0 percent with the GDP per capita gross rate
decreasing from 4.4 to 3.8 percent from 1986 to 1991 and from
1991 to 2000 respectively.

J
X

( 4 ) GRP per capita. This varied between $US 150 and US$
550 in 1982 and was estimated to vary between $US 270 and $US
1130 in the year year 2000.

(5) Per capita product (1976-2000) and the growth rate per
annum were determined for each changwat.

2.2 Traffic Analysis

Traffic growth rates for 1982-1986; 1986-1991, and

1991-2000 were calculated for each changwat-region from the
following equation:

Annual growth rate factor = 0.5

a
a
1 +P )( I+%)
+(l+-P)( I+&)
]
100
100
100
100
Growth rate in 8 = 100 (annual factor-1)

[(

Where:

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= national population growth rate in % per annum

= real GDP per capital growth rate in 8 per annum
= changwat/regional population growth rate in 8 per annum

p
G
p
g

rate in % per annum

a = income elasticity factor given below:

= real gross changwat/regional product per capita growth

Value of "a"
Vehicle Type
Cars
Light Trucks
Medium Trucks
Heavy Trucks
Light Buses
Heavy Buses

1982-1986

1986-1991

1.5
1.8
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.8

Growth rates fox motorcycles are 12.0, 7.0, and 4.0 percent
respectively for each of the forecasting periods; adjusted by the
difference between the population growth rate of the
changwat-region and the national rate.

To complete the traffic analysis, base year AADT values were

developed using annual survey census and inventory survey traffic
counts. An axle load study was also carried ou'i for each road
for the purpose of pavement strengthening.

2.3 Inventory and Road Evaluation

A road inventory was used to identify each separate link of

the road network and to evaluate its engineering properties such
as geometry, soils, pavement, shoulder and surface conditions,
drainage facilities, bridges, distance to available material
sources, etc. This information was used to estimate the amount
of work necessary to improve the road to any given higher
standard and to estimate the maintenance and vehicle operation
costs. This information was then incorporated in the economic
evaluation presented later in this paper.

An inventory was carried out on all of the project's roads;

emphasizing road surface conditions and pavement adequacy for
carrying the projected traffic loading in terms of equivalent
standard axles (ESA). The present serviceability index (PSI),
the roughness (in mm/km), and the surface conditions were determined for each kilometer. Figure 1 presents the relationship
between the PSI, roughness, and the pavement conditions developed
in Thailand (1983). This analysis was done for three different
surfaces: asphalt concrete (AC), surface treatment (ST), and
penetration macadam (PM). Generally, for a given measured roughness, the PM surface has the highest PSI and the AC surface the
lowest.

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The structural adequacy of the pavement and subgrade system

was determined by nondestructive testing. The deflection basins
were measured using the Benkelman beam and the subgrade and
pavement elastic modulus and CBR backcalculated. In situ
distructive testing, such as CBR; density; classification;
moisture, etc., was carried out to verify or correlate the
conclusions of the deflection analysis. The engineering
properties of the subgrade and pavement materials were used to
determine the needed work quantities for the five road
improvement alternatives.

2.4 Cost Analysis

The computerized cost analysis include four major factors:

(1) Unit Cost Analysis. A precise unit cost analysis is
needed to achieve an accurate cost estimate within a plus or
minus 15 percent range of the final construction cost. The unit
cost analysis was carried out in terms of both economic and
financial costs. Economic costs are defined as financial costs
less import duties and indirect taxes. The unit cost analysis
included the analysis of hourly operational cost of equipment,
equipment efficiency, labor cost for each work $<em, $profit;and
detailed indirect and direct cost analyses.

( 2 ) Road Improvement Cost. The estimated improvement costs

for each road project and for each road improvement alternative
were determined by applying the appropriate unit cost to the
quantities required for each rehabilitation alternative.
Financial costs for the investment program and economic costs for "
economic analysis were determined. Costs in local and foreign
currencies were determined for both local and foreign
contractors. Costs in foreign currency for foreign contractors
are usually 10 to 20 percent higher than those for local
contractors.

(3) Maintenance Costs. Routine maintenance is normally

carried out annually with possible variations in seasonal levels
of operation. Factors influencing the routine maintenance
expenditures are traffic volume; quality of surface and shoulder
materials, service life, carriageway width; side road approaches
and medians, gradient, quality of bridges; and drainage
facilities. Routine maintenance costs were determined for both
the existing and the improved road conditions. In addition to
routine maintenance, paved roads require periodic maintenance in
the form of seal coats applied to the roadway surface. In
Thailand, routine maintenance can be done for road surfaces in
poor, fair, or good condition. However, road surfaces in bad or
very bad condition; with a roughness of over 5500 rnrn/km; need a
minimum 5 cm of asphalt concrete overlay.

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(4)Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC). The detailed analysis of

VOC carried out in Thailand is given in the study performed for
In this analysis,
the Department of Highways of Thailand [l].
the recommendations given in References [2, 3, 41 were adjusted
for the representative vehicle and the environmental and road
conditions of Thailand. VOC were determined for each road
condition as shown in Figure 1. The VOC analysis concluded that
improving the road surface from a bad to a good condition reduces
the VOC approximately 4 0 to 50 percent.
2.5 Economic Analysis

(1) Feasibility Criteria. In the evaluation of maintenance

or road improvement projects; the primary consideration is the
order in which the projects should be undertaken, that is, a
project's relative priority vis-a-vis competing projects. What
form a project should take is generally clear-cut because of
engineering considerations. Thus a study road section was
considered feasible for immediate improvement if the following
conditions were met:

Aternative projects that yield greater benefits are

not available; and
6.

The project met the set minimum fate of return (IRR)

For the Thai road improvement study, financed by the World

Bank, a minimum IRR of 15 percent was adopted in 1983. In
practice, so many study projects yielded high rates of return,
that budget limitations should have been set at a much higher
t
level than 15% percent. Given the tentative nature of the
,*
results, a high minimum rate would be required before a project
is implemented. Reconstruction or rehabilitation projects
yielding a bare 15 percent IRR have opening year rates of return
of about 8 percent, subject to high risk. Clearly, -such projects
would need to be of exceptional value apart from their economic
benefits to justify an early undertaking. In general, it was
concluded that projects should not be implemented on the basis
of their economic value if their opening year rate of r e w r n is
below 15 percent; irrespective of their IRR. On this basis; 44
sections; totaling 8 4 2 kilometers; were ruled out fox immediate
improvement. At the other extreme; over a quarter of the total
study road length yielded IRR's of over 4 0 percent and opening
year rates of return of over 25 percent.

A high minimum return before implementation is necessary in

order to insure that such very high return roads are not delayed
to accommodate barely feasible roads. The opening year rate of
return is the preferred criterion for judging maintenance
projects because optimum timing is far more significant for these
projects than for new construction projects. The opening year
benefits of the latter change over time only in proportion to the

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FIGURE I

PSI VERSUS ROUGHNESS BY SURFACE TYPE

MEASURED ROUGHNESS M (mm/km)

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growth in their potential traffic. Maintenance project opening

year benefits, on the other hand, rise sharply over time as
pavement deterioration progresses.

(2) Improvement Benefits.

Virtually all the benefits from

the proposed improvements can be considered to be obtained by
future normal traffic, that is, present traffic volumes plus
projected traffic growth. However, this is a simplification;
very bad roads result in marginal trips not being made or even
in changes in routing. As the study year traffic volumes
relate to reasonable operating conditions, all benefits were
assumed to apply to normal traffic. Traffic was not considered
to be reduced by poor existing conditions in later years of the
analysis period. No generated traffic was therefore assumed
fxom the improvements.
The improved roads would require less maintenance than if
they remained unimproved, but it is easy to double-count
benefits from maintenance and from differential roughness. Any
major expenditure on the unimproved road would restore the
surface condition for part of its length, reducing differential
roughness. Only standard maintenance used by the Department of
Hi2hways was therefore assumed for both improved-,andunimproved
conditions.
ri
The annual existing and improved road maintenance costs
for each road section were calculated. The difference between
the cost streams was included as a net benefit or cost to the
improvement project in the cost-benefit analysis.
Road user benefits were calculated based on the reduction
in the surface roughness after improvement and also on the
higher operating speeds possible on the smoother and, where
applicable, wider carxiageway.
The residual value of the improvement expenditures at the
end of the analysis period was considered a benefit.
(3) Economic Analysis and Priority Indicators. The 1
economic indicators analyzed were internal rate of return,
benefit-cost ratio at a 15 percent discount rate, opening year
rate of return, and net present value in opening year
discounted at 15 percent.

The economic analysis for each region and for all study
roads was determined. Table 1 presents an example which ranks
priorities by opening year rate of return. Of the total study
road length, 15 percent has an FYRR exceeding 40 percent; 17
percent an FYRR from 25 to 39 percent, and 33 percent an FYRR
from 15 to 24 percent.

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Table 2

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS RESULTS (Northeastern Region)

Study
Length
Road No. Km.

1986
ADT 000

(1)
RoughEconomic
nese
cost/Km.
000nun/km. Mill.Bt.

IRR
%

FYRR
%

NPV
at 15% B/C Ratio
Mill. Bt. at 15%

(1) $US 1 = 22 Baht

The proportions differ considerably between regions. The

central region in Thailand produces much higher rates of return
than other regions. Roads in the northeastern region have the
lowest returns; with 58 percent of the study length yielding an
FYRR of less than 15 percent. This variation among the regions
reflects the much heavier traffic or ESA loading on the central
region roads, and as the roughness values indicate, more
deteriorated conditions than for roads in other regions.
The regional disparity in the results causes an allocation
problem in that if roads are improved on the bgsis of their
FYRR and IRR rankings, the central region will receive most of
the funds (58 percent, compared with 30 percent of the total
study road length which is in the region). Nevertheless; on
purely economic grounds, it is difficult to argue in favor of
having roads maintained to a higher standard in the less
developed areas of Thailand.

The implementation of the socioeconomic methodology presented in this paper has enabled the Thailand Road Authority,
under severe budget limitations, to rationally establish which
1,200 kilometers of roads to overlay, rehabilitate, or reconstruct out of the 3;000 kilometers having the highest FYRR and
IRR*
LIST OF REFERENCES

1.

2-

Kingdom of Thailand, Ministry of Communications,

Department of Highways; Second Provincial Road Project Feasibility Study and Detailed Engineering Design, 1984.
Jan De Weille Bank, Quantification of Road User Saving Staff, Occasional Paper No. 2, Johns Hopkins University
Press 1966.

3-

R. Winfrey; Economic Analysis for Highways, International

Text Book Company; Scranton, Pennsylvania.

4.

Tables fox Estimating Vehicle Operating Costs on Rural

Roads in Developing countries, TRRL, Lab. Report 723, 1979.

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