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ECONOMICS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
2010
1. Economy of Pakistan 3
3
2. History of Pakistan’s economy
5
3. The economy today
6
4. Factors effecting economy
9
5. Sectors of Pakistan’s economy
13
6. World bank
13
7. International monetary fund
14
8. Difference between imf & world bank
14
9. Imf assistance to Pakistan
12
.
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Economy of Pakistan
The economy of Pakistan is the 27th largest economy in the world in terms
of purchasing power, and the 48th largest in absolute dollar terms. Pakistan is the
second largest economy in South Asia. Pakistan's economy mainly encompasses,
• Textiles
• Chemicals
• Food processing
• Agriculture
Economic History
At the time of independence in 1947, Pakistan was a very poor country and its
economy majorly depends on agriculture. Since independence, Pakistan's
average economic growth rate has been higher than the average growth rate of the
world economy during the period. Average annual was 6.8% in the 1960s, 4.8% in
the 1970s, and 6.5% in the 1980s. Average annual growth fell to 4.6% in the 1990s
with significantly lower growth in the second half of that decade. Industrial-sector
growth, including manufacturing, was also above average. During the 1960s,
Pakistan was seen as a model of economic development around the world, and
there was much praise for its economic progression.
The table which gives every five years progress of GDP, US Dollar Exchange Rate,
Inflation Index, and Per Capita Income is given on the next page.
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2010
Per Capita
Gross Domestic Inflation Index
Year US Dollar Exchange Income
Product (2000=100)
(as % of USA)
196
20,058 4.76 Pakistani Rupees 3.37
0
196
31,740 4.76 Pakistani Rupees 3.40
5
197
51,355 4.76 Pakistani Rupees 3.26
0
197
131,330 9.91 Pakistani Rupees 2.36
5
197
283,460 9.97 Pakistani Rupees 21 2.83
8
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2010
200 59.86 Pakistani
6,581,103 126 1.71
5 Rupees
$ 185
GDP $ 75 billion $ 160 billion $ 170 billion
billion
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Rs. 1.05
Revenue collection Rs. 305 billion Rs. 708 billion Rs. 990 billion
trillion
2010
Foreign reserves $ 700 million $ 16.4 billion $ 10 billion $ 14 billion
$ 18.45
Exports $ 7.5 billion $ 18.5 billion $ 19.22 billion
billion
Foreign Direct
$ 1 billion $ 8.4 billion $ 5.19 billion $ 4.6 billion
Investment
Rs. 880
Development programs Rs. 80 billion Rs. 520 billion Rs. 549.7 billion
billion
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Agriculture
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Manufacturing
Fiscal Development
Inflation
Capital Market
Education
Poverty
Energy
Manufacturing:
Pakistan’s manufacturing sector is growing from 2000.
In 1999, large scale manufacturing is 1.5% and it is 19.9% in 2004-05. So it makes
an average 8.8% by the end of 2007. Below is growth of large scale manufacturing,
• 1999-00 – 1.5%
• 2000-01 – 11%
• 2001-02 – 3.5%
• 2002-03 – 7.2%
• 2003-04 – 18.1%
• 2004-05 – 19.9%
• 2005-06 – 8.7%
• 2006-07 – 8.6%
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• 2007-08 – 5%
Finance:
Pakistan’s finance and insurance sector department also showed a 2010
great development from 2000. In 2005, it is at Rs.311, 741 million. It shows a
growth of 166% since 2000.
Stock market:
“Business Week” the international magazine declared
Pakistan’s stock market, the best performing stock market index in the
world, in the first four years of 21st century. But in 2008, there is a great
decline in Pakistan’s economy due to uncertain political environment and
many other reasons.
Tourism:
Pakistan has diverse cultures, people and landscapes. Tourism in
Pakistan is a growing industry. To promoting Pakistan’s unique and various cultural
heritages, PM launch "Visit Pakistan" marketing campaign in 2007. In 2009, The
World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report ranks Pakistan
as one of the top 25% tourist destinations for its World Heritage sites. Some
famous tourist spots are shown below,
era.
heritage site
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Revenue:
The income of a government from taxation, excise duties,
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customs, or other sources, appropriated to the payment of the public expenses.
The Board of Revenue has collected nearly one trillion Rupees ($14.1 billion) in
taxes in the 2007-2008.
CNG industry:
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a substitute for gasoline
(petrol) or diesel fuel. It is considered to be an environmentally “clean” alternative
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to those fuels. In 2009, Pakistan is one of the largest users of CNG (compressed
natural gas) in the world. Presently, more than 2,900 CNG stations are operating in
the country in 85 cities and towns. It has provided employment to many people. But
now this industry has a decline and shortage of CNG is creating a big problem for
CNG station owners and the employs working at these stations. Many CNG
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stations closed and many are going to close if we don’t fight with the shortage
problem of CNG.
Cement industry:
Growth of cement industry is rightly considered a
barometer for economic activity. In 1947, Pakistan had inherited 4 cement plants
with a total capacity of 0.5 million tons.
The industry comprises of 29 firms, with the installed production capacity of 44.09
million tons. There are four foreign companies, three armed forces companies and
16 private companies listed in the stock exchanges. The cement sector is
contributing above Rs 30 billion to the national exchequer in the form of taxes.
Exchequer was a part of the government’s hat was responsible for the
management and collection of revenues.
Cement industry is also serving the nation by providing job opportunities and
presently more than 150,000 persons are employed directly or indirectly by the
industry.
IT industry:
Pakistan’s IT industry has been rising steadily. The Government of
Pakistan has been proactively developing the IT sector in Pakistan. A few of the
incentives offered include tax exemption till 2016, establishment of IT Parks with
low rent, foreign ownership of equity invested in IT and 100% repatriation of profit
allowed to IT companies. Profit repatriation is an important factor that determines
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whether 'foreign direct investment' in another country is actually profitable for the
parent firm.
Textile exports in 1999 were $5.2 billion and rose to become $10.5 billion by 2007.
Textile exports managed to increase at a very decent growth of 16% in 2006. There
is development in other sectors and exports of other sectors increases therefore
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textile exports share in total export of Pakistan has declined from 67% in 1997 to
55% in 2008.The top buyers of Pakistani textile goods are:
• USA
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• UK
• Japan
• Korea
• Saudi Arabia
• Italy
• Turkey
• Germany
Etc.
Services:
In GDP the share of service sector is 53.3%. Transport, storage,
communications, finance, and insurance shares 24% of this sector, and wholesale
and retail trade shares about 30%.
Communication:
Pakistan won the prestigious Government Leadership award
of GSM Association in 2006. In 2008, the mobile telephone market reached a
subscriber base of 91 million users. In addition, there are over 6 million landlines in
the country with 100% fiber-optic network. The contribution of telecom sector to the
national exchequer increased to Rs 110 billion in the year 2007-08 on account of
general sales tax, activation charges and other steps as compared to Rs 100 billion
in the year 2006-07. The top mobile phone operators in Pakistan are:
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Electricity: 2010
Installed capacity
Exports:
Pakistan's exports increased more than 100% from $7.5 billion in 1999 to stand at
$18 billion in the financial year 2007-2008. Pakistan
exports rice, furniture, cotton fiber, cement, tiles, marble, textiles, clothing, leather g
oods, sports goods, surgical instruments,
electrical appliances, software, carpets, rugs, ice cream, livestock
meat, chicken, powdered milk, wheat, seafood, vegetables, processed food items,
Pakistani assembled Suzuki’s (to Afghanistan and other
countries), defense equipment, salt, marble, onyx, engineering goods, and many
other items. Pakistan now is being very well recognized for producing and
exporting cements in Asia and Mid-East.
Imports:
Pakistan's imports stood at $30.54 billion in the financial year 2006-
2007. Pakistan's single largest import category is petroleum and petroleum
products. Other imports include: industrial machinery, construction machinery,
trucks, automobiles, computers, computer parts, medicines, pharmaceutical
products, food items, civilian aircraft, defense equipment, iron, steel, toys,
electronics, and other consumer items.
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World Bank
The first thing comes to my mind is that what is World Bank and what is the
purpose of World Bank. The World Bank is one of the world’s largest sources of
funding and knowledge to support governments of member countries in their efforts
2010
to invest in schools and health centers, provide water and electricity, fight disease
and protect the environment. The World Bank is an international organization
owned by the 184 countries. It is not a bank.
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The question in my mind is that when and how much was lent to Pakistan by IMF.
And what were the conditions imposed by IMF and what were the consequences of
these loans.
Pakistan joined IMF on 11th July, 1950. IMF is providing financial assistance to 2010
Pakistan since 1952. According to 1977 statistics, Pakistan borrowed 1193 million
dollars from IMF. Since 1980, the fund has made four main agreements with
Pakistan as,
1. In November,1980
2. In December, 1988
3. In February, 1994
4. In July, 1997
4. The custom duty on imports be decreased and sales and exercise duty
be imposed in the country
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1. The current account deficit of BOP which was 4% of GNP in 1987 was to be 2010
reduced to 3.3% of GNP in 1988-89, 2.7% in 1989-90, and 2.5% of GNP in
1990-91.
2. The foreign debt burden which was 31% of GNP in 1987 would be
decreased to 25% in 19990-91.
3. The overall fiscal deficit of federal and provincial govt. which was 8.5% of
GDP in 1986-87 would be reduced to 4.8% of GDP in 1990-91.
5. The tax structure will be changed. The tax-base will be expanded and tax
collection system will be improved.
7. The federal and provincial govt. will control their expenditures, while the
price of social services will be increased.
The main objective of this agreement was to reduce fiscal deficit. But the govt.
failed to meet these conditions. The budget deficit which was 8.7% of GDP in 1990-
91 decreased to 8% GDP in 1992-93. This means that the budget deficit could not
be decrease appreciably.
The govt. of Pakistan made some efforts but little success was attained. The
budget deficit was 5.8% of GDP in 1994-95 and the target for 1995-96 was set at
5% of GDP. This led to create a suspension in the attainment of loan of $1.4 billion
could be raised. Then the govt. of Pakistan failed to complete the conditions of IMF.
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Then the finance minister re-negotiated with IMF. As a result, a new agreement
took place between Pakistan and IMF where the fiscal deficit was stipulated at 4%
of GDP for 1996-97. Against it, the agreement was extended to September, 1997,
instead of February, 1997, while the amount of loan was raised from $250 million to
$850 million.
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Government of Pakistan neither reduces its expenditure nor raised tax revenues.
The IMF failed to learn any lesson from Pakistan’s experience. Government of
Pakistan’s dependence remains the same and efforts for new agreement started.
Pakistan exports grew during this period. Although IMF and other financial
institutions of the world have shown satisfaction over macroeconomic stability of
the country, yet WB is of the view that Pakistan has to face the problem of internal
and external loans, and it will have to reduce them.
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The IMF's Executive Board has approved a $7.6 billion loan for Pakistan to support
its program to stabilize and rebuild the economy while expanding its social safety
net to protect the poor.
"The Government's program has two objectives: first, to restore overall economic 2010
stability and confidence through a tightening of macroeconomic policies, and
second, to do so in a manner that ensures social stability and adequate support for
the poor during the adjustment process," said Juan Carlos Di Tata, the IMF mission
chief to Pakistan.
Of the $7.6 billion loan, $3.1 billion will be made available by the IMF immediately
to strengthen the reserve position. And the regular monitoring of the economy by
the IMF will show how the macroeconomic objectives set by the Government are
being met and whether they need to be adjusted in the light of changing
circumstances.
The Pakistan authorities have already taken some difficult steps to achieve these
objectives: energy subsidies have been cut and the interest rate has been
increased to tighten monetary policy. The authorities' program for the coming 24
months envisages a number of additional steps:
• The fiscal deficit, excluding grants, will be brought to down from 7.4 percent
of GDP in 2007/08 (starting July 1) to a more manageable 4.2 percent in
2008/09 and 3.3 percent in 2009/10—in line with what it was three years
ago. This fiscal adjustment will be primarily achieved by phasing out energy
subsidies and strengthening revenue mobilization through tax policy and
administration measures.
• The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will act on monetary policy to build its
international reserves, bring down inflation to 6 percent in 2010, and
eliminate central bank financing of the government. The program includes
measures to improve monetary management and enhance the SBP's bank
resolution capacity, and avoid the use of public resources to support the
stock market.
• Expenditure on the social safety net will be increased to protect the poor
through both cash transfers and targeted electricity subsidies. The fiscal
program for 2008/09 envisages an increase in spending on the social safety
net of 0.6 percentage points of GDP to 0.9 percent of GDP.
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For encouraging growth, investment, and employment generation, the Federal and
Provincial Governments have been implementing various reform programs. In June
2007, the World Bank approved a US$350 million to support ongoing
implementation of the Government's Poverty Reduction Strategy. At the provincial
level, the Bank approved operations worth US$430 million for Punjab, Sindh and
the North West Frontier Province to help improve irrigation, education and human
development indicators.
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institutions of the poor and then providing them with micro-credit loans; grants for
small scale infrastructure projects; training and skill development and social sector
interventions. The program is impacting over 10 million people. PPAF has issued
1.5 million micro-credit loans, (average loan-size US$ 150), benefiting nearly 9
million people. 2010
• They are helping the victims of the Earthquake.
The October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan destroyed or damaged around 575,000
rural houses, and rendering over 3 million people without shelter in North West
Frontier Province (NWFP) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K). In response, the
government created the Earthquake Relief and Reconstruction Authority (ERRA)
and launched an ambitious US$1.5 billion owner-driven rebuilding program -
largely suited to the mainly rural affected population. It is partially funded by World
Bank.
• They are joining with international partners to help Pakistan fight polio.
They approved two projects US$42.71 million in 2003 and US $ 74.27 million in
2006 for Pakistan to purchase the oral polio vaccine. The loan to Pakistan will help
the country’s Polio Eradication Initiative which aims to make Pakistan a Polio free
country. Since 1997 the number of polio cases has decreased from 1147 to 31 in
2007. The first project has been successfully completed.
In NWFP and AJK, Bank projects are supporting delivery of cost effective and
sustainable community development schemes, and basic infrastructure and
services. To achieve this, the role and capabilities of local governments at the
district and lower levels have been strengthened. In AJK, the project has already
reached a population of 893,000 against the original target of 830,000, through 320
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CBOs. Out of the 54 Tehsil Municipal Authorities (TMA) in NWFP, 50 are now
participating in the Project.
• They are helping to ‘improve trade flows’ and ‘lower transit costs and
times’.
In 2005, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) launched major initiatives around the
National Trade Corridor Improvement Program (NTCIP) to reduce the cost of trade
and transport logistics and bring services' quality to international standards in order
to reduce the cost of doing business in Pakistan and ultimately enhance
competitiveness and industrialization.
They rely mostly on local expertise. As 90% of their staff is local who are working
for Pakistan. While a large part of World Bank’s value is its global experience and
expertise, local knowledge is indispensable to effective development.
• Assistance:
During the past four years from FY 2006 - 2009, the Bank has approved 30
projects of total US$3.7 billion for Pakistan.
The World Bank is currently working with the Government of Pakistan to prepare a
new Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for the period FY2010-2013.
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Suggestion
2010
Pakistan is a country having many natural resources in it. We should be self
sufficient, we should rely on ourselves. Sincerity is the key to success so we should
be sincere with our country and work hard for its development. If we have financial
crisis, we should not beg for aid from IMF and World Bank or any other
organization, but we can handle the problem by relying on ourselves. We should
pay more taxes and we should try to remove corruption from every department of
our beloved homeland. The government should make such opportunities that
foreign investment is attracted towards us. By applying these things we don’t need
to depend on IMF and World Bank.
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BIBLOGRAPHY
http://economicpakistan.wordpress.com
http://www.worldbank.org.pk/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/SOUTHASI
AEXT/PAKISTANEXTN/0
www.wikipedia.com
www.imf.org
www.encyclopedia.com
http://www.uiowa.edu/ifdebook/ebook2/contents/part1-II.shtml#A
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/
www.finance.gov.pk/
http://www.britannica.com/
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http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\01\22\story_22-1-
2010_pg5_3
http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=18119
2010
International Economic by Hameed Shahid, (chap 12, international monetary
arangements)
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