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Article Info
Article history:
Received on 10th April 2015
Accepted on 14th April 2015.
Published on 16th April 2015
Keyword:
Artificial Neural Network,
Backpropagation Algorithm,
Support Vector Machine
(SVM),
Forecasting,
Kernels
ABSTRACT
The energy is a vital input for the social and economic development of
any nation. With increasing agricultural and industrial activities in the
country, the demand for energy is also increasing. The increasing use of
natural and renewable energy sources is needed to take the burden of our
current dependency on fossil fuels. Development and analysis of renewable
energy models helps utility in energy forecasting, planning, research and
policy making. The wind power is a clean, inexhaustible, and almost a free
source of energy. But the integration of wind parks with the power grid has
resulted in many challenges for the utility in terms of commitment and
control of power plants. As wind speed and wind direction fluctuate
frequently, the accurate long-term and short-term forecasting of wind speed
is important for ascertaining the wind power generation availability. To deal
with wind speed forecasting, many methods have been developed such as
physical method, which use lots of physical considerations to reach the best
forecasting precision and other is the statistical method, which specializes in
finding the relationship of the measured power data. Wind speed can be
predicted by using time series analysis, artificial neural network, Kalman
Filter method, linear prediction method, spatial correlation models and
wavelet, also by using the support vector machines. In this paper, the SVM
is used for day ahead prediction of wind speed using historical data of wind
park. In this paper Support Vector Machine (SVM) results are compared
with feedforward Backpropagation neural network. It is observed that the
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by SVM method is around 7%
and correlation coefficient is close to 1. This justifies the ability of SVM for
wind speed prediction task than Backpropagation algorithm.
Copyright 2015 International Journal of Research in Science & Technology
All rights reserved.
Corresponding Author:
Mrs. Sangita B. Patil
Electrical Engineering Department
G. H. Raisoni Institute of Engineering, Wagholi
Pune, India
sangita.patil@raisoni.net
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where
are the Langrange multipliers. The problem
described in (4) is a convex programming problem each
solution of which is the globally optimal solution, so these
are no existence of local extremum.
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PARAMETERS
UNITS
Temperature
Deg.C
Humidity
%RH
Wind Gust
m/s
Wind Direction
Deg.M
Barometric Pressure
Mb
m/s
m/s
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Figure 5.
Figure 3.
Figure 6.
Figure 4.
Figure 7.
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Figure 10.
Actual and estimated wind speed for 30th
October 2008
(7)
Where
Figure 9.
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[12]
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
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