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TornYemenbleedsinSaudiIranianproxywar
AFP|Mar16,2015|22:51
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AYemeniprotesterholdsaportraitofAhmedAliAbdullahSaleh,thesonof
YemensformerpresidentAliAbdullahSalehwhosteppeddowninearly
2012,duringademonstrationonMarch13,demandinghimtorulethe
countryinthecapitalSanaa(AFPphoto)
DUBAITornbetweenanorthcontrolledbyShiiterebelsandasouthdominatedbytheembattled
president'sallies,YemenismiredinaproxywarbetweenIranandSaudiArabia,analystssay.
ThestrugglethreatenstopushtheimpoverishedArabianPeninsulastatefurthertowardstheabyssas
theSunniShiitesectariandividegrowswider.
Amidthechaos,AlQaedamilitantsareclosingrankswithtribesoffellowSunniMuslimstocounter
theexpansionoftheShiiteHouthirebels.
Inanunprecedentedshowofforce,theIranbackedHouthis,whooverranthecapitalSanaa
unopposedinSeptember,lastweekstagedmilitaryexercisesneartheborderwithSunniheavyweight
SaudiArabia.
"InthefaceofIran'sShiiteexpansionism,Sunnisolidarityisbuilding,ledbySaudiArabia,"one
diplomatwhorequestedanonymitytoldAFP.
ThekingdomtothenorthhasalwaysplayedaprominentroleinYemenipolitics.
Ithostednegotiationsthathelpedendayearofdeadlynationwideprotestsandledtoadealthateased
outpresidentAliAbdullahSalehin2012.
AndfollowingarequestbyPresidentAbedrabboMansourHadi,Riyadhisagainpoisedtobroker
talksaimedatendingYemenslatestpoliticalimpasse.
WhenHadifledHouthiimposedhousearrestinSanaainFebruaryandresurfacedinAden,Saudi
Arabiawasthefirstcountrytotransferitsembassythere,inanopendisplayofsupportforthe
beleagueredleader.

Tehranwarning
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TehranhasopenlydenouncedmovestomakethesouthernportYemenstemporarycapital.
SanaaistheofficialandhistoricalcapitalofYemenandthoseinAdenwhobackdisintegrationor
civilwarareresponsiblefortheconsequences,IransdeputyforeignministerHosseinAmir
Abdollahiansaidlastweek.
HechargedthatHadi,whooncehereachedAdenretractedaresignationtenderedunderduressin
Sanaa,wouldhavedonebettertostayinSanaaandkeeptohisresignationletterandnotleadthe
countryintocrisis.
AprilLongleyAlley,YemenspecialistattheInternationalCrisisGroup,arguesthatTehranhas
receivedahugepoliticalreturnforverylittleinvestment.
AsSaudiArabiahardensitsstanceagainsttheHouthisandseekstorollbacktheirgains,the
HouthisarelikelytoseekclosertieswithcountrieslikeIran,shesaid.
ThisTehranRiyadhstruggleisbothcomplicatingandamplifyingconflictinYemen,shesaid.
SaudiArabiafearsthattheHouthis,whosweptdownfromthenorthandexpandedtheareathey
controltotheshoresoftheRedSea,nowhavetheirsightssetonthestrategicBabAlMandabstrait.
ThiswouldgiveIranproxycontroloverthekeywaterwaytoandfromtheSuezCanal,addingtoits
alreadystrongpresenceintheGulfsStraitofHormuzthroughwhichmuchoftheworldsoilpasses.

Saudiswitch

FearingtheriseofextremistSunniIslamists,especiallytheMuslimBrotherhood,Riyadhstopped
backingYemensAlIslah(Reform)Party,thusgivingtheHouthistheupperhand,accordingtoLina
Khatib,directoroftheCarnegieMiddleEastCentre.
AtonepointSaudiArabiafavouredaHouthidomination[alongtheborder]insteadoftheMuslim
Brotherhood.ItsroleinYementhendiminished,encouragingtheHouthistoadvancesouthand
seizelargeamountsofterritorywithinweeks,shesaid.
TheHouthirunSabanewsagencyreportedonThursdaythatIranwillprovideYemenwithcrudeoil
foroneyear,andalsoestablisha165megawattpowerplant.
TheagreementwasmadeduringaHouthivisittotheIslamicrepublicafteranIraniancommercial
flightlandedinSanaaonMarch1thefirstinmanyyearsandthefruitofanaviationaccordwith
Tehran.
TheHouthisinsistthatIrandoesnotmeddleinYemeniaffairs.
Wevesaiditclearly:werejectallinterferenceinourinternalaffairs,whetherfromSaudiArabia,
IranortheUnitedStates,HouthispokesmanMohammedAbdulsalamtoldAFP.
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HeaccusedSaudiArabiaofseekingtocreatechaosinYemen.
TheriskofcivilwarorpartitioninYemenisincreasinglyraisedinpoliticalcircles,Khatibsaid.
MohammadSadehSadqian,headoftheCentreforArabStudiesinTehran,warnedthattheSaudi
Iranstruggleforinfluence,alreadyclearinIraqandSyria,couldhaveconsequenceselsewhere.
ThestrugglecouldengulfothercountriesifRiyadhandTehrandonotsitaroundonetableand
discussopenlyallpointsofdispute,hesaid.

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