Keywords: Raise in population, increase in workaholic lifestyle, unbalanced diet

consumption, inorganic chemical based food, reduction in vacant and fertile land,
pollution and unpredictable weather conditions in high food producing countries
due to global warming.

Present World population is7bn and it is estimated to be 9bn by 2050, during this
period there will be maximum population raise in urban areas where water is
already scarce. {Ref2}
Urbanization and changing life styles of people shows much intake of fast foods
rather than a healthy nutritious balanced diet and this causes rise in chronic
diseases like diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular problems, osteoarthritis, malnutrition
or under nutrition,
Chronic diseases like type II diabetes
One third of the total food produced in India is spoiled and as it is said that: where
there is a need there is innovation.
Chronic diseases listed below are increasing among world population.
Production and consumption

Diet related to ill health costs Britains NHS 8Bn per year; obesity alone is
estimated to cost the wider economy 15.8Bn. Foresight, the UK Governments
future-oriented stakeholder group, suggests the figure could be 50Bn by 2050 (ref
3, ref 8).

Britain is likely to become less self-sufficient in food production. The UK is

73% self-sufficient in indigenous-type foods and 60% self-sufficient in all food
meaning that in 2009 40% of all food is imported (ref 5). 69% of the UKs land is
already used for agriculture, there is demand for more housing (and forest) and as
an increasing population demands a varied diet the UK is likely to import more food
in the coming decades.

In 1965, the per capita consumption of meat in developing countries was

10.2kg a year, but is predicted to rise to 36.7kg by 2030, which will increase cereal
prices (the principal animal feeds) and increase water stress (ref 2). Per capita meat
consumption in developing countries doubled from 14 to 28 kg between 1980 and
2002.

The World Bank estimates that cereal production needs to increase by 50%
(from 2.1 to 3Bn tones) and meat production by 85% (to reach 470M tones)
between 2000 and 2030 to meet demand (ref 3,ref 7, ref 9).


In developing countries, 80% of the necessary production increases to meet
demand are projected to come from increases in yields and cropping intensity and
20% from the expansion of arable land (ref 7).

Without major technological intervention, the growth in yields will continue to

level out. Globally the annual rate of growth in yields of the major cereal crops is
likely to slow, as it has from 3.2% per year in 1960 to 1.5% percent in 2000 (ref 7).
Investment

The increase in the total average annual net investment in developing

country agriculture required to deliver the necessary production increases amounts
to $83Bn (ref 7).

Including the cost of renewing depreciating investments, the annual gross

investment required from developing countries is $209Bn. It has been estimated
that developing countries on average invested $142Bn annually in agriculture over
the past decade. The required increase is therefore about 50%. Figures are totals for
public and private investment (ref 7).

Economic growth originating in agriculture, especially in the smallholder

sector, is at least twice as effective at benefitting the poorest people as growth from
non-agricultural sectors. This is because 75% of the poor in developing countries
live in rural areas and their incomes are directly or indirectly linked to agriculture
(ref 7).

Many countries will continue to rely on international trade to ensure their

food security. It is estimated that by 2050 developing countries net imports of
cereals will more than double from 135M tonnes in 2008/09 to 300M tonnes by 2050
(ref 7).

UK farming incomes increased by 36% in 2008, mainly due to the high price
of cereals in the 2008 food price spike, but long term trends since the 1970s show
declines in farming incomes (ref 10).
Environment

A smaller selection of pesticides will be available to use because of

international agreements and legislation. For instance, the widely used fumigant
methyl bromide was phased out in many countries by 2005 (though exemptions
remain) by the Montreal Protocol and other chemicals are to be phased out in the
next decade by the EU Framework Directive (ref 11).

Climate change may affect the Southern hemisphere more adversely than the
Northern hemisphere. The negative impact of climate change on agricultural impact
in Africa could be 15-30% up to 2080-2100 (ref 7).


Biofuel production using agricultural commodities will continue to increase.
Biofuel production based on agricultural commodities increased more than threefold
from 2000-08 (ref 7).

In 2007-08 total use of coarse grains from ethanol production reached 110M
tonnes, around 10% of global production (ref 7).
Water

Nearly three-quarters of the worlds water is used for irrigation and

agriculture (ref 7). The UN predicts that irrigation demands will increase by 50-100%
by 2025 (ref 2).

In Africa, a quarter of the population already lives with chronic water stress,
and globally 2.8Bn people currently live in areas of water stress a figure predicted
to rise to 3.9Bn by 2030 (ref 2).

Political disagreements over water for agriculture will lead to military

conflicts. 145 countries share lakes and river basins, and there are more than 300
agreements between nations. More than 30 countries have been involved in water
wars (ref 2).

Potential areas of tension include the Mekong Delta (China plans 8 dams that
will divert water from Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam);
Bangladesh and India (54 rivers flow between the countries, but India had plans to
divert water from the Ganges to its water-poor south); Turkey and Syria have both
dammed the Euphrates which puts water stress on downstream Iraq (ref 2).

The River Jordan, which supplies water to Israel, Syria, Jordan and the
Palestinian territories, could shrink by up to 80% by the end of the century (ref 2).

The Zambesi basin supports 32M people across 8 countries. The population is
growing, but precipitation is expected to decrease 15% by 2050 (ref 2).