HungaryandRussia

TheViktorandVladimirshow
GermanyandotherEuropeancountriesworryaboutHungarystieswith
Russia

Feb14th2015|BUDAPEST| Fromtheprintedition
JATSZOTER(playground)proclaimsHVG,amagazine,aboveagraphicofHungaryasa
seesaw.AngelaMerkel,theGermanchancellor,isatoneend,VladimirPutin,theRussian
president,attheother.Itisafittingimage,giventhatMrPutinisdueinBudapeston
February17th,twoweeksafterMrsMerkel.HisvisitwillmostlybeaboutrenewingHungarys
gascontractwhichexpiresthisyear,saysViktorOrban,theprimeminister,whowantswhat
hecallsaflexiblearrangement.Forhispart,MrPutinwantstoshowtheworldthatheis
notasisolatedassomeclaim.
TheUkrainecrisis,andMrOrbanslinkswithRussia,haveputHungaryinthespotlight.
GeorgiasprimeministerhasjustvisitedTurkeyspresidentisexpectedsoon.Westernfears
ofMrOrbansautocraticdrifthaveintensified.Hecausedconsiderablealarmaroundthe
EuropeanUnioninJuly2014whenhedeclaredthatHungarywouldremainademocracy
butbecomeanilliberalstate,citingtheexamplesofRussia,TurkeyandChina.MrsMerkel
criticisedthetermonhervisit,butwasfirmlyrebuffedbyherhost.
OnUkraine,MrOrbanisvacillatingbetweenadesireforclosertieswithRussiaandhis
obligationsasamemberoftheEUandNATO.RussiaisHungarysbiggesttradingpartner
outsidetheEU,andsuppliesmostofitsgas.Moreover,Americaslossofinterestand
influenceincentralEuropepointstoagreaterfocusonGermanyandRussia,arguesMr
Orban.
ThecancellationofRussiasplannedSouthStreamgaspipelinewasablow.Cheapgasisa
fundamentalpillarofthegovernmentspopulistpolicies,saysPeterKrekoofPoliticalCapital,
aBudapestthinktank.ThequestioniswhatkindofpoliticalpricePresidentPutinwilltry
andexact.HewantstoexertpressureontheEUsweakestlinkstobreakEuropeanunity.
ManyintheWestthinkthecosyingupbetweenMrOrbanandMrPutinhasgonetoofar.
Hungaryhastakena10billion($11billion)loanfromRussiatoupgradeitsageingnuclear
powerplant.Thecontractwasnegotiatedinsecretandnotputouttotender.(Officialscite
reasonsofnationalsecurity.)LastyearMrOrbanalsobrokeranksoverEUsanctionson
Russia,claimingthattheydidmoreharmtoEuropethantoRussia.Hungaryhasrepeatedly

calledforautonomyforethnicHungariansinwesternUkraine.Suchcallswereseenas
furtherweakeningtheembattledgovernmentinKiev,helpingMoscow.
ButMrOrbanhassincecomebackintoline,supportingUkrainessovereigntyandstressing
HungaryscommitmenttoNATO.HehascourtedGermany,onwhoseeconomyand
investmentHungarydependsmostheavily.EuropeangovernmentsunderstandHungarys
positiononenergy,saysoneWesterndiplomat,butdissentfromtheEUscommonpositionis
notanoption:EUmemberstatesagreeapolicyandweallfollowit,especiallyinahigh
stakesenvironmentlikethisone.
RussiasrelationswithHungaryareisolatedfromtheoverallsituationintheworld,says
VladimirSergeyev,RussiasambassadortoHungary.Yetthisseemsimplausible.Ukraine,
whichbordersHungary,castsalongandeverdarkeningshadow.Doomsdayscenarios
includethebreakupofthecountry,whichcouldpushwavesofrefugeesacrosstheborder.
Some200,000ethnicHungariansliveinwesternUkraine,andmanycouldseeksanctuary.
MrOrbanmayyethavetoseesawbacktowardstheWest.

Fromtheprintedition:Europe