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Management Consulting

Case Study Questions on Business Communication

Question
CASE 1:
Nestle has launched quality street ,lion and after 8 choclates imported from Europe. Qualtty Street is an
assortment of chocolates priced at Rs. 7 5 for 218 gm. After Eight is a popular adult chocolate priced at Rs.25
for 20 gm and Lion is a caramel wafer bar priced at Rs. 20 for a 45 gm bar. (Kit Kat )is priced at Rs. 6 for a 17
gm bar and has a chocolaty taste while Lion has a crunchy taste). The brands have different tastes and will
appeal to different target segments (though the target segment is one which may have already been
exposed to
these brands during visits abroad). These brands have been introduced in metros in upmarket stores which
sell
brands bears the label "lmported by Nestle India Ltd." indicating that they may be better than smuggled
ones
(which may be stale).
Question :
1 Suggest suitable media /media vehicles for promoting these brands. Give reasons in support of your
answer
2 What business communication media you will utilize if you have to launch a soap in rural India?
CASE 2:
The herbal shampoo market is valued at around Rs. 100 crores. Ny/e, Ayur, Dqbur and Biotique are some of
the
established brands in the market.
Helene Curtis (JK Group) has introduced a premium herbal shampoo (with variants Shikskai, henna and qmla
and brqhmi and josur) priced between Rs. 80 and Rs. 90 (500 ml) for different types of hair. The proposition is
the benefits offered by lhe variant based on the combination of herbs, benefits offered by the variants range
from extra protection and nourishment to colour, body and bounce. The shampoos have been launched
under
the brand name Premium Herbsl Shsmpoos and they target urban housewives with a monthly household
income of Rs.25,000. The brand is distributed through 7 0,000 retail outlets and 120 Raymond shops. The
company has planned only point of purchase (POP) posters initially and may consider the electronic media
later. The shampoo has an annual advertising expenditure of Rs. 10 crores.
Question :
1 Comment on the marketing mix of JK's Premium Herbsl Shampoos ?
2 How can you make their communication more effective ?.
CASE 3:
(i) Iran Rafsanjan Co., Rafsanjan City, Iran has taken a marine insurance policy No. VB/84/3629/29 dated
20th December, 2005 from Albroz Insurance Co., Kerman City, Iran for the import of 500 tractor gears
from Apex Products (India) Ltd., Delhi. The exporter shipped the cargo on board vessel SEEMA on
26th December, 2005 for Bandar Abbas Port of Iran.
As per the letter of credit condition, the exporter was required to fax the shipment details to Albroz
Insurance Company within 24 hours of the shipment. However, the exporter could not fax such details due
to change in telephone (fax) number of the insurance company.
Draft an express telegram to intimate shipment details.
ii) Yours is a multinational company having joint venture with a Chinese company. Plant is to be located at
Surat. The company immediately needs an Executive - Foreign Affairs (male/female) with ability of
writing and speaking Chinese language.
Draft a recruitment advertisement for publication under classified column of a national daily. Salary-is no
bar for the right candidate. E-mail address
iii) The local head office of State Bank of India is located at 11, Parliament Street, New Delhi-110001. The
bank wants to construct 76 flats at Noida for its employees and invite applications for pre-qualification of

contractors. Full details are available on its website - www.sbi.co.in or www.statebankofindia.com/


procurement_news.
Draft a notice for pre-qualification of contractors.
iv) The Joint Admission Board (JAB) of Indian Institutes of Technology in its meeting held on 17th
September, 2005 at Kolkata has taken some decisions with regard to Joint Entrance Examination (JEE)
2006, i.e., to appear in JEE, one must secure at least 60% marks (55% for SC/ST and PD) in 10+2
examination; a candidate can have only two attempts with effect from JEE-2006; and a candidate who
joins any of the IITs through JEE-2006 will not be permitted to appear in JEE in future.* It was also
decided that candidates, who have passed their qualifying examination in 2005 or earlier, will be allowed
to appear in JEE-2006 as the last chance, with no consideration of marks or attempts at JEE subject to age
requirements. On behalf of the JAB, draft a suitable press release to be issued by organizing chairman
highlighting these decisions.

Get the answer below

Answer
Question: CASE 1:
Nestle has launched quality street ,lion and after 8 choclates imported from Europe. Qualtty Street is an
assortment of chocolates priced at Rs. 7 5 for 218 gm. After Eight is a popular adult chocolate priced at Rs.25
for 20 gm and Lion is a caramel wafer bar priced at Rs. 20 for a 45 gm bar. (Kit Kat )is priced at Rs. 6 for a 17
gm bar and has a chocolaty taste while Lion has a crunchy taste). The brands have different tastes and will
appeal to different target segments (though the target segment is one which may have already been
exposed to
these brands during visits abroad). These brands have been introduced in metros in upmarket stores which
sell
brands bears the label "lmported by Nestle India Ltd." indicating that they may be better than smuggled
ones
(which may be stale).
Question :
1 Suggest suitable media /media vehicles for promoting these brands. Give reasons in support of your
answer
THESE ARE BEING INTRODUCED IN THE METRO UPMARKET STORES.
WHAT WE NEED IS AN INTEGRATED MARKETING COMMUNICATION FOR AN EFFECTIVE MARKETING
AND GOOD RESULTS.
The primary goal of marketing communications is to build awareness of a business, its products, and its
position through customer-facing materials such as brochures, press releases, Web sites, and trade OUTLET
presentations. Planning an integrated and consistent cross-team approach to these activities one that
reinforces a company's message with target audiences and motivates customers to buy .
A good marketing communications plan requires you to do substantial research. You need to have an indepth understanding of your target audiences and the processes involved in buying, selling, and
communicating. After you've armed yourself with the knowledge that you need, you can determine what you
hope to gain from your marketing activities, what you want your customers to know, and how best to
communicate that information to them. You'll also need to decide on a budget and schedule, and to evaluate
any constraints that these might place on the campaign. Ideally, your marketing plan should outline the
communications process step by step.
The following links take you to the tools and information that you need to produce a first-rate marketing
communications plan.
The marketing communications strategy process usually begins with creating a "messaging strategy" -determining the consistent theme or fundamental selling message that will he used in all marketing
materials.

Another key part of the messaging process is creating the positioning statement. This two sentence
statement tells what you sell, to whom, and why customers should buy it.
As you move through the process of creating a positioning statement, you'll want to capture your
brainstorming results, such as in your marketing strategy mind map. Then, refine and test those creative
approaches until you settle on your company's positioning statement.
Your positioning statement is critical to making all of the other parts of the marketing communications
strategy work well. This is because every awareness-building and product information program needs to
paint a clear, concise picture of what you sell and how customers will benefit from using your products.
Selecting effective marketing programs
Once you have settled on a strong positioning statement, you can develop sound strategies for your marcom
programs. For most companies this means considering programs such as:
Public relations
Advertising
Web site
Direct marketing (offline & online)
Packaging
Merchandising promotions
A mind map is a good way to capture ideas about which programs look like they will be most effective. Add
these programs to the Marketing Communications section of your strategic marketing mind map. Later,
evaluate each program to see if it should be in your final strategic marketing plan.
In large companies where each marketing program has its own manager, you can link your main strategic
marketing mind map to each program's own planning mind map.
In companies where the whole marcom strategy is implemented by one team, you can add details about
marcom programs in the team's main marketing mind map.
Benefits of a sound marcom strategy
The process of creating a marcom strategy has gotten more complex as more marketing activities move to
the Internet. This has made it even more important to understand customer segments and how to
communicate with those potential customers.
When you develop a marcom strategy based on a sound strategic marketing view of your market your
marcom program will be more effective -- and customers will have a better, more consistent brand
experience.
======================
Integrated Marketing Communications Strategy
The Communications Mix
Advertising
any paid form of nonpersonal presentation by a sponsor
Personal Selling
personal presentations by a firms sales force
Sales Promotion
short term incentives to encourage sales
Public Relations
building good relations with various publics
Direct Marketing
short term incentives to encourage sales
Developing Effective Communication
Identifying Target Audience
Determining Communications Objectives
Buyer Readiness Stages
Designing Message
Message Content
Message Structure
Message Format
Media Selection
personal and nonpersonal communications channels

Message Source
Feedback Collection
Promotion Budget
Affordable
Percentage of Sales
Competitive Parity
Objective and Task
Promotion Mix
Advertising
reaches many buyers, expressive
impersonal
Personal Selling
personal interaction, relationship building
costly
Sales Promotion
generates immediate response
short-lived
Public Relations
more believable, economical, underused by firms
Direct Marketing
customized, interactive
Promotion Mix
Push Strategy
directing communications to channel members
Pull Strategy
directing communications to end users
Factors
type of product/market
buyer readiness stage
product life-cycle stage
Emerging Communications Environment
Shift from mass marketing to segmented marketing
Shift from mass media to focused media
Integrated Marketing Communications
Coordinate and integrate communications channels
advertising
personal selling
sales promotion
direct marketing
public relations
packaging
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
2 What business communication media you will utilize if you have to launch a soap in rural India?
Advertising goes hand in hand with economic growth. With economic liberalization and increasing rural
prosperity, marketers are keen to inform villagers about the benefits of buying and consuming their products
and services. Prior to the introduction of economic liberalization in 1990s, there was little incentive for
marketers to advertise their products and services, as rural markets were predominantly a seller's market.
The influence of the electronic media, in particular television, video and the Hindi film industry, is
contributing to the growth of rural aspirations, which are being manifested in rural India in the form of
increasing consumerism.
The rural environment is different from the urban and therefore communication to potential customers in a
proper and effective manner is a major challenge for corporate marketers. The majority of advertisements
designed by corporate marketers, are largely urban oriented and extend themselves to rural areas without
any consideration to the values and sensitivities of the rural audience, which are often in striking contrast to
those of their urban counterparts. This has led to a negative perception in the minds of villagers, about urban
media planners and advertisers.

Rural communication is not a 'peripheral activity'. It does not, for instance, involve taking an audio-visual van
to a village and assuming that this step is enough to reach out to customers. It requires an entirely different
mindset, which demands getting rid of many mental barriers. Companies have to realize that rural is a longhaul market, as gains in the short term are neither immediate nor large.
CHALLENGES IN RURAL COMMUNICATION
There are many challenges to communication in rural. Low literacy level; poor media reach and exposure and
vast, heterogeneous and diversely spread rural audiences characterized by variations in language, culture
and lifestyle-all these factors pose multiple challenges to marketers looking to take their messages to the
largely media-dark or media-grey areas, of rural markets.
Heterogeneity and spread
The communication pattern in any society is a part of its culture. No communication medium can exist in a
cultural vacuum. Communicating the message to rural consumers ha posed enormous challenges to the rural
marketer, because of the large numbers of consumers scatters across the country. The problem is further
compounded by the heterogeneous nature of consumers there are 16 scheduled languages and 114 local
vernaculars. For example, the dialect used in the Vidharbha region ,in konkan region, in costal Maharastra.
Limited Media Reach
The limited reach of the mass media imposes limitations on universal communication to rural consumers.
These factors lead to poor message comprehension and negligible impact, which fail to translate into
consumer awareness and hence fail in generating consumer pull.
Understanding the Rural Audience
It is not sufficient to understand rural communication challenges as stated above: rather, what is equally
crucial is the need to understand the behavioral and psychographic characteristics of the rural audience, in
order to develop an effective rural communication strategy.
CREATING ADVERTISEMENTS FOR RURAL AUDIENCES
Communication experts need to keep the following factors in mind when creating advertisements for rural
audiences.
* Understanding the mindset of potential customers, including their hopes, fears, aspirations and
apprehension conducting a qualitative study among the target audience would help in better understanding
of the consumer mindset.
* Pick up 'gems' in the form of idioms, expressions, words, etc. in relation to the product category for later
use in the creative.
* Tricky, clever, gimmicky, or even suggestive advertising does not work with rural audiences. 'Flicks' using
very expensive computer graphics without any human presence go over the heads of rural audiences.
* Combining education with 'entertainment is a good route to take when targeting rural audiences. Using
locally popular film stars or even featuring religious events (melas) popular in the region, helps strike a chord
with rural audiences. According to a study, it is Govinda and Sharukh Khan who is most popular among rural
folk in north India.
* 'Quickies' (short television commercials) do not register well with rural audiences. Advertising agencies
need to provide for ample time and space to communicate a message properly and effectively to the
intended audience. This is seen for instance, in the popularity of the two-minute theatre commercials
screened in rural cinemas.
* RURAL MEDIA
* Rural media can be classified broadly into conventional mass, non-conventional media and personalized
media. The various media vehicles are as follows:
CONVENTIONAL MASS MEDIA NON-CONVENTIONAL MEDIA PERSONALIZED MEDIA
Television Haat and mela Direct mailer
Radio Folk media (puppet show, magic show) Point of sale(demonstration, leaflet)
Press Video van Word of mouth
Cinema Mandi Interpersonal communication
Outdoor: wall painting, hoarding
Animator

INOVATIVE MEDIA
OUTDOOR MEDIA: WALL PAINTING
* This medium is the most widespread form of advertising and is the favorite of the Indian rural masses, as
they can view it at their leisure. Wall paintings are important because they constantly remind rural people
about name and logos in addition to highlighting the key brand promise. They also reflect the vibrant
economic and social life of the area.
Characteristics of wall paintings
* They are economical as compared to other traditional media forms, as the manpower and infrastructure
requirements are low.
* They can easily be customized in accordance with regional language variations without this impacting their
artistic content.
* Audience recall rates are high.
Limitations
* The lack of availability of wall space at prominent locations is an issue.
* The quality of the wall space available is not always satisfactory. The base of rural wall structures is
generally not smooth and this impacts the final output.
* No exclusive wall rights are given to the company. It may happen that a company gets a wall painted and
after sometimes when the company executive passes through, he finds that the painting has been replaced
by the advertisement of some other company.
* The quality of the painters available is also low. Companies prefer hiring painters locally as they are familiar
with the area and the cost of hiring them is lower when compared to the cost of hiring painters from outside.
FOLK MEDIA
* Folk media consist of folk songs, folk dances and other theatrical forms, including puppetry, street theatre
and magic shows, which are an intrinsic part of the culture and heritage of the land.
* They are capable of communicating message about contemporary issues, topics and concerns as per the
needs and demands of a changing society.
* They are a face-to-face and personal form of communication.
* The essential characteristics of folk media are that are interactive, repetitive and narrative
Kinds of Folk Media
* Folk theatre
* Magic show
* Puppet shows
* Interactive games
* Folk Theatre
Folk theatre, interspersed with folk song and dance, is a simple and entertaining form of communication. It
can also be informative and educational. In the past, folk theatre has been used to arose public opinion
against the British Raj, to draw attention to atrocities against the girl child and raise public consciousness
about other socially relevant issues.
* Folk songs

Folk songs are basically simple and direct compositions that are usually transmitted orally from one
generation to the next and not through the written word. The structure of the folk song is characterized by
simplicity and uniformity in rhythm. The songs consist of many stanzas sung in more or less the same tune.
Each region and state has its own particular traditions of folk songs and ballads.
* Folk Dances
Folk dances are basically simple and rhythmic and mostly religious in nature. Communication takes place
through dramatic gestures and the accompanying music. Folk dances are visually very arresting, attracting
audiences with their elaborate costumes and stage settings.
* Magic shows
Magic shows are another very entertaining form of folk entertainment and draw large crowds, particularly
because of the curiosity factor and the use of hypnotic effects.
* Puppet Shows
The kathputli puppet performance is the most common form of this folk tradition.The origin of puppet theatre
is closely linked to the performance of religious ceremonies. The connection between rituals and the use of
puppets is found in almost all the states in India.
Traditional puppeteers were mostly itinerant performers who depended on royal patronage for their survival.
Even today tales of chivalrous kings like Prithiviraj C hauhan and Amar Singh Rathor are narrated through
puppet performances in the villages and towns of Rajasthan.
The different forms of traditional puppetry are glove, rod, string-rod and shadow puppets. The differences
exist not only in name but also in form, structure, manipulation techniques and geographical origin spread.
CONCLUSION
To sum up, it is clear that in any form of rural communication, while we may have a national strategy, we
have to think and act locally. The need for focused communication aimed at the rural market, should not be
underestimated. This calls for innovation and substantive changes in marketing strategies and approaches.
The innovation should be carried out within the framework of what can best be characterized as the 4-R
principle:
Reincarnate innovation
If the Indian advertising industry is to reach out to rural India in an effective and efficient manner, it has to be
grounded firmly in rural perceptions, value and traditions. It has to immerse itself in local colours, customs
and modes of communication in order to make itself relevant to the needs and desires of rural society. It has
to gain the trust of the masses by undercutting its own excessive dependency on western styles of
advertising, on the one hand and on its use of

#################################################################
##########

CASE 2:
The herbal shampoo market is valued at around Rs. 100 crores. Ny/e, Ayur, Dqbur and Biotique are some of
the
established brands in the market.
Helene Curtis (JK Group) has introduced a premium herbal shampoo (with variants Shikskai, henna and qmla
and brqhmi and josur) priced between Rs. 80 and Rs. 90 (500 ml) for different types of hair. The proposition is
the benefits offered by lhe variant based on the combination of herbs, benefits offered by the variants range
from extra protection and nourishment to colour, body and bounce. The shampoos have been launched
under
the brand name Premium Herbsl Shsmpoos and they target urban housewives with a monthly household
income of Rs.25,000. The brand is distributed through 7 0,000 retail outlets and 120 Raymond shops. The
company has planned only point of purchase (POP) posters initially and may consider the electronic media
later. The shampoo has an annual advertising expenditure of Rs. 10 crores.
Question :
1 Comment on the marketing mix of JK's Premium Herbsl Shampoos ?

1 Comment on the marketing mix of JK's Premium Herbsl Shampoos ?

[THE POP ALONE IS A VERY WEAK APPROACH TO THE PROMOTION .


THE INITIAL PROMOTION MIX MUST
-create awareness
-create interest
-influence the buawareness
-create interest
-influence the buying decision
-sell the benefits
-complete the sales transaction.
------------------------------------------------------------2 How can you make their communication more effective ?.
2 How can you make their communication more effective ?.

TO MAKE THE COMMUNICATION MORE EFFECTIVE , WE SHOULD SELECT


THE PROMOTIONAL MIX ARE:
Personal Selling ,
-here the marketing communication is used
*to inform the customers/ prospects
*to create awareness
*to present the product
*to influence the customer
*to sell benefits
*to help the customer to make the buying decision
*to seek commitment
*to help to close the sale.
-------------------------------------Sales Promotion
-here the marketing communication is used
*to inform the customers
*to physically present
*to influence the customers
*to help the customers to feel the product
*to help the customer to make the buying decision
*to offer consumer incentives
*to help the final transactions
-------------------------------------------Public Relations (and publicity)
-here the marketing communication is used
*to publicise the company
*to publicise the product
*to publicise the company's research/ development
*to publicise the company image
*to create the company brand
*to inform public
*to communicate with the community.
*to establish relations with government
*to establish community relations
-------------------------------------------------Direct Mail
-here the marketing communication is used
*to inform
*to talk to individuals

*to focus on niche market


*to inform the decision makers directly
*to advertise cost efficiently
*to promote selected market segments
*to contact individuals for one-to-one marketing
---------------------------------------------------------------------Trade Fairs and Exhibitions
-here the marketing communication is used
*to inform individuals
*to provide visibility
*to talk to individuals
*to inform the decision makers directly
*to advertise cost efficiently
*to promote person to person
*to contact individuals for one-to-one marketing
-------------------------------------------------------------------Advertising (above and below the line)
-here the marketing communication is used
ABOVE THE LINE
*to MASS inform the customers/ prospects
*to create MASS awareness
*to present the product
*to influence the customer
*to sell benefits
*to help the customer to make the buying decision
BELOW THE LINE
*to physically present
*to make it visible at the point of sale.
*to influence the customers
*to help the customers to feel the product
*to help the customer to make the buying decision
*to offer consumer incentives
*to help the final transactions
*to display and promote
*to merchandise the product
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Sponsorship
-here the marketing communication is used
*to MASS inform the customers/ prospects
*to create MASS awareness
*to present the product
*to influence the customer
*to sell benefits
--------------------------------------------------------Packaging -here the marketing communication is used
-here the marketing communication is used
*to MASS inform the customers/ prospects
*to create MASS awareness
*to present the product
*to influence the customer
*to make it visible at the point of sale
-------------------------------------------------------------Merchandising (and point-of-sale)
-here the marketing communication is used
*to create visiblity at the point of sale.
*to influence the customers
*to help the customers to feel the product

*to help the customer to make the buying decision


*to offer consumer incentives
*to help the final transactions
*to display and promote
*to merchandise the product
-------------------------------------------------------------------EMarketing (and Internet promotions)
-here the marketing communication is used
*to inform
*to talk to individuals
*to focus on niche market
*to inform the decision makers directly
*to advertise cost efficiently
---------------------------------------------------------------Branding (and corporate identity)
-here the marketing communication is used
*to create an unique position for the company
*to create an unique position for the product
*to create unique visibility
*to make it easy to identify
*to make it easy to buy
*to make it easy to sell
----------------------------------------------------------ALL THE MARKETING COMMUNICATION EFFORTS ARE DIRECTED
-TO MAKE IT EASY FOR THE CUSTOMERS TO MAKE THE BUYING DECISION.
-HENCE MORE SALES.
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
CASE 3:
(i) Iran Rafsanjan Co., Rafsanjan City, Iran has taken a marine insurance policy No. VB/84/3629/29 dated
20th December, 2005 from Albroz Insurance Co., Kerman City, Iran for the import of 500 tractor gears
from Apex Products (India) Ltd., Delhi. The exporter shipped the cargo on board vessel SEEMA on
26th December, 2005 for Bandar Abbas Port of Iran.
As per the letter of credit condition, the exporter was required to fax the shipment details to Albroz
Insurance Company within 24 hours of the shipment. However, the exporter could not fax such details due
to change in telephone (fax) number of the insurance company.
Draft an express telegram to intimate shipment details.
Draft an express telegram to intimate shipment details.

Albroz Insurance Co., Kerman Cityv

subject
Iran Rafsanjan Co., Rafsanjan City, Iran
Sub marine insurance policy No. VB/84/3629/29 dated

Apex Products (India) Ltd., Delhi.


The exporter shipped the cargo-500 tractors-- on board vessel SEEMA on
26th December, 2005 for Bandar Abbas Port of Iran

==========================================================

ii) Yours is a multinational company having joint venture with a Chinese company. Plant is to be located at
Surat. The company immediately needs an Executive - Foreign Affairs (male/female) with ability of
writing and speaking Chinese language.
Draft a recruitment advertisement for publication under classified column of a national daily. Salary-is no
bar for the right candidate. E-mail address
AN INDIAN MULTINATIONAL CO. HAVING JOINT VENTURE WITH A CHINESE CO.LOCATED IN SURAT
SEEKS AN EXECUTIVEFOREIGN AFFAIRS --EXPERT INTERPRETOR WITH THE ABILITY TO WRITE/SPEAK
CHINESE MANDARIN LANGUAGE. RIGHT SALARY PACKAGE FOR THE RIGHT TALENT.
POTENTIAL CANDIDATES MAY APPLY TO
EMAIL:

=================================================================
===

iii) The local head office of State Bank of India is located at 11, Parliament Street, New Delhi-110001. The
bank wants to construct 76 flats at Noida for its employees and invite applications for pre-qualification of
contractors. Full details are available on its website - www.sbi.co.in or www.statebankofindia.com/
procurement_news.
Draft a notice for pre-qualification of contractors.
Prequalification for CONTRACTORS
The local head office of State Bank of India is located at 11, Parliament Street, New Delhi-110001. invites
application from reputed CONTRACTORS for
prequalification to render professional services for construction of Bank's 76 flats at Noida for its employees .
For further information and downloading of
application form, log on to Banks website
www.sbi.co.in or www.statebankofindia.com/procurement_news.
Last date of submission is XXXXXXXXXX
####################################
iv) The Joint Admission Board (JAB) of Indian Institutes of Technology in its meeting held on 17th
September, 2005 at Kolkata has taken some decisions with regard to Joint Entrance Examination (JEE)
2006, i.e., to appear in JEE, one must secure at least 60% marks (55% for SC/ST and PD) in 10+2
examination; a candidate can have only two attempts with effect from JEE-2006; and a candidate who
joins any of the IITs through JEE-2006 will not be permitted to appear in JEE in future.* It was also
decided that candidates, who have passed their qualifying examination in 2005 or earlier, will be allowed
to appear in JEE-2006 as the last chance, with no consideration of marks or attempts at JEE subject to age
requirements. On behalf of the JAB, draft a suitable press release to be issued by organizing chairman
highlighting these decisions.
-------------------------------------------------Based on the resolution passed unanimously by the members of The Joint Admission Board (JAB) of
Indian Institutes of Technology in its meeting held on 17th September, 2005 at Kolkata
I wish to inform the press and the people in general , about the decisions taken with regard to Joint
Entrance Examination (JEE) 2006,
No. 1
to appear in JEE, one must secure at least 60% marks (55% for SC/ST and PD) in 10+2 examination;
No. 2

a candidate can have only two attempts with effect from JEE-2006;
No .3
a candidate who joins any of the IITs through JEE-2006 will not be permitted to appear in JEE in future.
No. 4
candidates, who have passed their qualifying examination in 2005 or earlier, will be allowed to appear in JEE2006 as the last chance, with no consideration of marks or attempts at JEE subject to age requirements.
Thank you ladies/ gentlemen.

Question
CASE STUDY : 1
A policy is a plan of action. It is a statement of intention committing the management to a general course of
action. When the management drafts a policy statement to cover some features of its personnel
programmes, the statement may often contain an expression of philosophy and principle as well. Although it
is perfectly legitimate for an organization to include its philosophy, principles and policy in one policy
expression.
Q1) Why organizations adopt personnel policies explain the benefits?
Q2) What are the sources and content of personnel policies?
Q3) Explain few personnel policies?
Q4) Explain principles of personnel policies?

CASE STUDY : 2
Recruitment is understood as the process of searching for and obtaining applicants for jobs, from among
whom the rights people can be selected. Theoretically, recruitment process is said to end with the receipt of
applications, in practice the activity extends to the screening of applications so as to eliminate those who are
not qualified for the job.
Recruitment refers to the process of receipt of applications from job seekers. In reality, the term is used to
describe the entire process of employee hiring. These are recruitment boards for railways, banks and other
organization.

Q1) Explain in detail the general purpose of recruitment?


Q2) Explain factors governing Recruitment?
Q3) Explain the Recruitment process with diagram?
Q4) Explain Recruitment planning?

CASE STUDY : 3
Navin AGM materials, is fuming and fretting. He bumped into Kiran, GM Materials, threw the resignation
letter on his table, shouted and walked out of the room swiftly.
Navin has reason for his sudden outburst. He has been driven to the wall. Perhaps details of the story will
tell the reasons for Navins bile and why he put in his papers, barely four months after he took up his
assignment.
The year was 2005 when Navin quit the prestigious Sail plant at Mumbai. As a manager material Navin
enjoyed the power. He could even place an order for materials worth Rs 25 lakh. He needed nobodys prior
approval.
Navin joined a pulp making plant located at Pune as AGM Materials. The plant is owned by a prestigious
business house in India. Obviously perks, designation and reputation of the conglomerate lured Navin away
from the public sector.
When he joined the pulp making company, little did Navin realize that he needed prior approval to place an
order for materials worth Rs 12 lakhs. He had presumed that he had the authority to place an order by
himself worth half the amount of what he used to do at the mega steel maker. He placed the order material
arrived, were recived, accepted and used up in the plant.
Trouble started when the bill for Rs 12 lakh came from vendor. The accounts department withheld payment
for the reason that the bill was not endorsed by Kiran. Kiran rused to sign the bill as his approval was not
taken by Navin before placing the order.
Navin felt fumigated and cheated. A brief encounter with Kiran only aggrarated the problem. Navin was
curtly told that he should have known company rules before venturing. Navin decided to quit the company.

Q1) Does the company have an orientation programme?


Q2) If yes how effective is it?
Q3) How is formal Orientation programme conducted?
Q4) If you were Navin what would have you done?

CASE STUDY : 4
Bitter it may taste, shrill it may sound, and sleepless nights it may cause, but it is true. In a major shake up
Airbus. The European aircraft manufacturers has thrown a big shock to its employees. Before coming to the
details of the shock, a peep into the companys resume.
Name Airbus
Created 1970
President CEO : Vijay M.
Employees 57000
Turnover 26 Bn (Euro)
Total Aircraft sold (Feb 2007) 7187
Delivered 4598
Headquarters Paris (France)
Facilities 16
Rival Boeing

Airbus announced on February 27, 2007 that it would shed 10,000 jobs across four European contries and sell
six of its unit. N the same day the helpless workers did what was expected of them downed tools and
staged protests. The protesting workers at Airbuss factory at Meaulte, northern France, were seen picketing
outside the factory gate after holding up production a day earlier. To be fair to Airbus, its management
entered talks with unions before the job loss and sale was formally announced. But the talks did not mollify
the agitated workers.
Job sheating and hiring of units are a part of Power and restructuring plan unleashed by Airbus to save itself
from increasing loss of its ground to the arch rival, Boeing Co.
Airbus Power & Strategy was first mooted in October 2006 but sparkled a split between France & Germany
over the distribution of job losses and the placement of future ones. Later the two countries agreed to share
both job losses and new technology.
The power and plan, if finalized, would mean a 3 per cent reduction to Airbuss 55000 employee strength.

Q1) Why should Power and focus on shedding jobs to save on cost?
Q2) Are there no alternative strategies?
Q3) Will the proposed shedding of jobs and scale of six units help airbus survive the intense competition
from Boeing?
Q4) Comment on the whole issue?
Get the answer below

Answer
CASE STUDY : 1
A policy is a plan of action. It is a statement of intention committing the management to a general course of
action. When the management drafts a policy statement to cover some features of its personnel
programmes, the statement may often contain an expression of philosophy and principle as well. Although it
is perfectly legitimate for an organization to include its philosophy, principles and policy in one policy
expression.
Q1) Why organizations adopt personnel policies explain the benefits?
Recruitment and Selection
Policies pertaining to the recruitment and selection process are the foundation of building any workforce.
You must have a plan for creating applications, how to prequalify applicants, how applicants move up to
become a candidate and other employment procedures. This set of policies also benefits current employees
who refer applicants to your business.
Training and Professional Development
Provisions for employee training and development are included in human resource policy documents
because it informs employees of the kind of professional development available to them. In addition, policies
related to training and development assistance in the formulation of employee development plans or
performance improvement plans. Training and development policies serve as an outline of educational
benefits available to current employees.
Handling Employee Concerns
Many companies have written procedures for handling employee complaints, whether they are internal,
informal complaints or allegations made about the employer to enforcement agencies. The benefit of this
policy is to document your companys commitment to nondiscriminatory practices and how such complaints
are resolved. These policies also benefit employees because they provide important information about
workplace communication in the event an employee is unsure of who she contacts to discuss any concerns or
problems.

Workplace Safety
In a time when more than worker safety in the performance of her job is the primary issue addressed in
safety policies, employers distribute policies that address matters such as workplace violence. These types of
policies are generally discussed in detail with employee groups; an emergency evacuation policy isnt
effective if you dont discuss it until the emergency happens. Another benefit to having a human resources
safety policy is adherence to federal and state guidelines for workplace safety.
Organizational Structure
An introduction to the human resources policy manual explains the organizational structure, what
departments fulfill which expectations and company leadership. In the introductory section, many employers
also explain the company philosophy as it is related to customer service, co-workers, leadership and business
ethics. Ethics statements are extremely popular, especially in a world where social responsibility is observed
by so much of the population. This section of a human resources policy manual may also state the company's
compliance with federal, state and local anti-discrimination laws.
Employment Rules
Employees are accustomed to learning specific workplace rules such as dress code, discipline procedures,
parking, attendance and working hours, holidays, employee benefits and payroll dates. The human resources
policy on these issues is easy accessed by employees who have questions, or reviewed by new employees
eager to learn more about their new employer. The benefit is that you have a written commitment to
employees about the operation of the business.

==============================================

Q2) What are the sources and content of personnel policies?


PERSONNEL POLICY
Personnel policies constitute guide to action. They furnish the general standards or basis on which
decisions are reached.
A policy is man-made rule or predetermined course of action that is established to guide the performance
of work towards the organization. It is a type of standing plan that serves to guide subordinates in the
execution of their work------------- Edwin B. Flippo.
Policies include that body of understanding which makes the action of each member of group in a given
set of circumstances more predictable to other members. --------Haynes and Massie.
Policies are general statement or understanding which guide or channel thinking in decision making of
subordinates. ------Koontz and ODonnell.
Personnel policies are statements of objectives for the guidance of management in its relations with
employees.
ORIGIN, DEVELOPMENT AND SOURCES OF PERSONNEL POLICIES
Policies stem from a wide variety of places and people. They are not created in a vacuum but are based on a
few principal sources, which determine the content and meaning of policies. These are:
The past experience of the organization.
The prevailing practices.
The attitude, ideals and philosophy of the board of directors.
The knowledge and experience gained from handling personnel problems.
Employees suggestions and complaints.
Collective bargaining programme.
State and national legislations.
Changes in the countrys economy.
International forces.
Culture of the plant.
The extent of unionism.
The attitudes and social values of labour.
The goals of the organization.
The ethical points of view or the social responsibility.

OBJECTIVES OF PERSONNEL POLICY

Attention on objectives of the organization.


Maximum individual development and satisfaction.
Maximum use of resources.
Offsetting uncertainty and change.
Good industrial relations.
Better control.
Morale.
Consistent treatment.
Continuity of practice.

CHARACTERISTICS OF PERSONNEL POLICY


1. A personnel policy is formulated in the context of organizational objectives.
2. A policy may be in written or it has to be interpreted from the behaviour of organizational members
particularly people at top.
3. A policy is formulated through the various steps in the decision making process.
4. It provides guidelines.
5. Policy formulation is a function of all managers, however top management has important role in policy
making.
6. Policy statement should be positive, clear and easily understood by everyone.
7. It provides two-way communication.
8. It should be balanced and maintain consistency.

PRINCIPLE OF PERSONNEL POLICY

Principle
Principle
Principle
Principle
Principle
Principle

of
of
of
of
of
of

common interest
development
recognition of work
recognition of trade unions
participation
change

STEPS IN POLICY

Initiating the needs


Fact findings
Putting the policy in writing
Communicating the policy
Evaluating the policy.

CONTENTS OF PERSONEL POLICY

Name of the company.


Procedure and techniques of recruitment and selection.
Organizational relationship---allocation of work authorities and responsibilities.
Working conditions.
Training and development--- full details regarding planning objectives and methods of training.
Procedure of handling the grievances.
Rules and regulations.
Joint consultation.
Line of authority.
Collective bargaining.
Industrial relations.
Health and safety.
Welfare.

Wages and salaries.

Q3) Explain few personnel policies?


MAIN POLICY STATEMENTS
1. Employment Policy----------to obtain suitable qualified and experienced personnel and to enable them to
derive satisfaction from employment by offering them attractive wages, good working conditions, security
and opportunities for promotions.
2. Training policy-------to provide adequate training facilities to enable employees to learn to do their job
effectively and to prepare themselves for promotions.
3. Wage and salary policy-----to pay wages and salaries that compare favourably with those of other firms
locally within a structure that has due regards for recognized differentials and individual ability.
4. Industrial relation policy-----to operate adequate procedures for dealing with disputes and grievances
quickly and make every effort to improve relations between management and employees through the use of
participative method.
5. Welfare policy-----to safeguard the health and safety of all employees and to provide such welfare and
social activities as are sincerely desired by employees and are mutually beneficial to them and company.

Q4) Explain principles of personnel policies?


Principles of personnel policy
Management
Management for us means assuming responsibility for our stakeholders and delegating at the right level. We
achieve both predefined and individual goals regardless of personal preferences and while maintaining equal
opportunities, irrespective of origin, nationality, sex, sexual orientation, religion or age. Managers challenge
and motivate, in the same way as they themselves are challenged and motivated.
Employment plan
The employment plan is discussed annually by the Board of Directors as part of the budget meet-ing. In
principle, we want to avoid any labour reserves. We cover peak times using interdepartmen-tal support,
overtime or temporary employees.
Staff development
We demand a high level of commitment and qualifications. We encourage the development of technical and
social skills through training and further education. Because we INVEST a lot in our employees, we strive to

maintain long-term employment relationships. We support young people by offering apprenticeships and/or
internships.
Social aspects
We offer progressive working conditions and competitive employee benefits. We also provide as-sistance for
employees who use public transport and help with health insurance provisions. Smok-ing is only permitted in
designated areas.
Salaries
Our system ensures that our salaries are competitive, gender-neutral and meet requirements. The basic
salary is the main component of the salary. In addition there is a variable component which is dependent on
the extent to which individually agreed targets are achieved and on the operating performance of the
company as a whole. More details are available in the Employment Regulations.
Job structure
We offer a practical infrastructure with modern, if not fashionable, working tools. Depending on the position,
we are open to flexible working hours.
Information, communication and behaviour
Regarding information and communication, we practice the principle of reciprocity: actively com-municate
information and actively obtain information. We behave in a respectful, loyal, open and honest manner, and
act with integrity. We complete our tasks with dedication and to the best of our knowledge.
Working environment
We work in an environment of mutual trust. We hold joint events to build team spirit and mutual
understanding.
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
CASE STUDY : 2
Recruitment is understood as the process of searching for and obtaining applicants for jobs, from among
whom the rights people can be selected. Theoretically, recruitment process is said to end with the receipt of
applications, in practice the activity extends to the screening of applications so as to eliminate those who are
not qualified for the job.
Recruitment refers to the process of receipt of applications from job seekers. In reality, the term is used to
describe the entire process of employee hiring. These are recruitment boards for railways, banks and other
organization.

Q1) Explain in detail the general purpose of recruitment?


recruitment provides a desirable number of candidates for an organization's open positions. Recruitment also
manages the costs in time and MONEY for hiring employees. Recruitment enables the organization to meet
social and legal obligations. By sourcing, developing and recruiting candidates, recruitment facilitates the
organization's hiring process.

The recruitment process is one of the most fundamental value added HR Processes. The recruitment is
especially critical for managers in the organization. The managers use the recruitment process intensively,
and satisfaction with Human Resources is mostly about the satisfaction with the recruitment process.
The recruitment process is sensitive to the external and internal changes, and it can be used as the best
indicator for the future HR trends. By careful analysis of HR Recruitment Measures, the HR Management team
can predict the trends in the job market simply.
Main Recruitment Process Goals
The recruitment process is designed to staff the organization with the new employees, and it uses many
different recruitment sources to attract the right talent in the defined quality and within a defined time.
The recruitment process has several goals:
Find the best talents for the vacancies
Manage the recruitment sources
Manage the vacancies in the organization
Run the internal recruitment process
Building the strong HR Marketing platform
Co-operation with local and international universities

Provide feedback about the trends in the job market


Most recruitment goals are not visible to managers directly, and they use just sourcing of the job candidates
as the main outcome from the recruitment process. HR has to use the other outcomes from the recruitment
process as it is the source of valuable information.
Finding the best talents on the job market
This is the most important goal of the recruitment process. The HR Recruiters are paid for delivering the
candidates to managers, who make the final decision about hiring a new employee.
The organizations are fighting for the best talents in the job market. HR Recruiters have to develop the
competitive approaches to make the attractive job offers. The candidates select the organization, which is
recognized for being modern and competitive. The job adverts and job offers have to reflect this.
The managers love to hire the best employees available on the job market. They love to interview motivated
job candidates. The role of HR is to describe the real need to the manager. Many times, the best job
candidate is not the appropriate job candidate.
Recruitment Sources Management
The recruitment sources management is an extremely significant goal of the recruitment process. The
recruitment sources deliver the candidates for the selection procedure in the organization. The better the
candidates are; the higher quality job candidates can be hired. The proper management of the recruitment
sources has a significant impact on the competitive advantage of the organization.
The better employees do not have to be more expensive, but the organization has to manage the
recruitment sources to attract the high quality job candidates.
Building the Strong Internal Recruitment Process
The external recruitment is not the only goal of the recruitment process. Building the strong internal
recruitment helps the organization to keep the best talents in the organization. The employees have a
chance to apply for a new job position, and they can change their career path.
The internal recruitment is a difficult HR topic as the managers have to allow their best employees to take a
new role within the organization. The role of Human Resources is in allowing the best employees to rotate
and in supporting the managers in developing the successors.
HR Marketing
The HR Marketing is essential for the large organization, which need to attract many job candidates. The
large organization cannot hire just the experts; they have to attract many university graduates. The
graduates do select the employer by the strength of the brand name on the job market and offered
opportunities in the organization.
The HR has to design the recruitment activities, which support the name of the employer on the job market.
The organization has to build a positive brand name, and it has to promote the JOB OPPORTUNITIES and
excellent career paths.
=========================

Q2) Explain factors governing Recruitment?


Factors Governing Recruitment:
Given its key role and external visibility, recruitment isnaturally subject to influence of several factors. These
include external andinternal forces.
External Forces:
Of particular importance is the supply and demand of specific skills in the labour market. If the demand for a
particular skill ishigh relative to the supply, an extraordinary recruiting effort may be needed.When the
unemployment rate in a given area is high the companiesrecruitment process may be simpler. The number
of unsolicited applicantsis usually greater, and the increased size of the labour pool provides
betteropportunities for attracting qualified applicants. On the other hand, as theunemployment rates drops
recruiting efforts must be increased and newsources explored.Labour-market conditions in a local area are of
primary importance inrecruiting for most non-managerial, supervisory and middle-mgt. positions.However, so
far as recruitment for executive and professional positions areconcerned conditions of all India market are
important.Another external factor is political and legal considerations.Reservation of jobs for SCs, STs,
minorities, and other backward classes(OBCs) is a political decision. The companies image also matters
inattracting large number of job seekers. Blue-chip companies attract largenumber of applications. Often, it
is not the MONEY that is important. It is theperception of the job seekers about the company that matters in
attractingqualified prospective employees.

Internal Factors:
There are certain internal forces which deserveconsideration while recruiting personnel. One such internal
factor is the recruiting policy of the organization. Most organizations have a policy onrecruiting internally
(from own employees) or externally (from outside theorganization).Generally, the policy is to prefer internal
sourcing, as own employees know the company well and can recommend candidates who fitthe
organizations culture. Another related policy is to have temporary and part-time employees. An organization
hiring temporary and part-time employees is in a less advantageous position in attracting sufficient
applications. MNCs operating in our country prefer local citizens as they can understand local languages,
customs and business practices well.
A major internal factor that can determine the success of therecruiting programme is whether or not the
company engages in HRP.Effective HRP greatly facilitates the recruiting efforts.Size is another internal factor
having its influence on the recruitmentprocess. An organization with one hundred thousand employee will
findrecruiting less problematic than an organization with just one hundredemployees.Cost of recruiting is yet
another internal factor that has to beconsidered. Recruiting cost are calculated per new higher and fig.
isconsiderable now-a-days. Recruiters must, therefore, operate withinbudgets. Careful HRP and forethought
by recruiters can minimizerecruitment costs. One cost-saving measure, for instance, is recruiting formultiple
job openings simultaneously. The best solution is to use proactivepersonnel practices to reduce employee
turnovers, thus, minimizing theneed for recruiting. Evaluating the quality, quantity and cost of
recruitmenthelps ensure that it is efficient and cost-effective.Finally, an organization registering growth and
expansion will havemore recruiting on hand than the one which finds its fortunes declining.

Q3) Explain the Recruitment process with diagram?


AN OVERVIEW OF THE PROCESS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------PROCESS ELEMENTS
FOR ALL POSITIONS
---------------------------------------------!------------!---------------------STEP 1
PREPARING JOB ANALYSES
PREPARING JOB DESC
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 2
PREPARING JOB SPECS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 3
DECIDING TERMS AND
CONDITIONS OF EMPLOYMENT
[ MEETS ALL GOVERNMENT REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 4
ADVERTISING
[COPY/MEDIA PLAN]
except for senior positions [ head hunting]
[ MUST REFLECT TRUTH, NO FALSE INFORMATION,
NO GENDER BIAS, NO DISCRIMINATION,NO AGE BAR, ETC]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 5

INTERNAL APPLICANT
EXTERNAL APPLICANT
except for tech [ outsourcing ]
ONLINE APPLICANT
and senior positions [ head hunting]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 6
SIFTING APPLICATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 7
PERSONAL INTERVIEW
-INDIVIDUAL PER TO PER
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 8
-PANEL INTERVIEW
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 9
-SELECTION BOARD
only for senior positions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 10
TESTING [ BEHAVIORAL]
-PSYCHOLOGICAL
procedural element for all positions except senior position
-PERSONALITY
procedural element for all positions except senior position
-ABILITY
procedural element for all positions except senior position
-APTITUDE
procedural element for all positions except senior position
-PSYCHOMETRIC
procedural element for all positions
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 11
TESTING [ TECHNICAL ]
only for tech. positions
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 12
ASSESSMENT CENTRE
only for senior positions
-POTENTIAL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 13
OBTAINING REFERENCE
procedural element for all positions
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 14
CHECKING REFERENCE
procedural element for all positions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 15
MAKING DECISION
procedural element for all positions
[ NO DISCRIMINATION, NO COLOR BAR, NO SEX DISCRIMINATION,
PURELY ON MERIT ]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 16
OFFERING EMPLOYMENT procedural element for all positions
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STEP 17
PREPARING EMPLOYMENT
procedural element for all positions
LETTER
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 18
-HR sends out letters to the unsuccessful candidates.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 19
-HR CHECKS REFERENCES.
[ ABIDE BY LAW ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 20
-HR SENDS OUT OFFER LETTERS TO SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATES.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 21
-THE LINE MANAGERS / AGREE TO THE START DATE
AND INDUCTION PROGRAMME.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 22
PERSONAL FILE CREATION
-HR CREATES ''PERSONAL FILE ''.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 23
HANDOVER TO HR / ADMINISTRATION
-THE LINE MANAGER HANDS OVER THE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR PAYROLL ADMIN AND INDUCTION TO HR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 24
-HR PREPARES WELCOME PACK / EMPLOYEE MANUAL.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEP 25
ARCHIVING OF APPOINTMENT FILES.
-HR ARCHIVES SELECTED CANDIDATES FILE.
-HR DESTROYS UNSUCCESSFUL CANDIDATES FILES
AFTER 6 MONTHS.
[ BY LAW, ALL OLD FILES MUST BE DESTROYED ]
=======================================================
==========================================================

Q4) Explain Recruitment planning?


Recruitment is the process used by an organization to locate and attract job applicants in order to fill a
position. An effective approach to recruitment can help a company successfully compete for limited human

resources. To maximize competitive advantage, a company must choose the recruiting method that produces
the best pool of candidates quickly and cost effectively. There are five steps to the process.
STEP 1: IDENTIFY THE JOB OPENING
This step would appear to be an easy one-just wait until an employee turns in a notice of resignation. Many
job openings are, in fact, identified in this way. A major problem with this approach is that it may take the
company a long time to fill the opening. For instance, it usually takes six to eight weeks to notify and screen
applicants, and a week or more to make a decision regarding a job offer. After the decision is made, the
selected candidate must give notice (usually about two weeks) to his or her previous employer. Thus, the job
in question is likely to remain vacant for months, even if the process runs smoothly.
Ideally, organizations should attempt to identify job openings well in advance of an announced resignation.
The HRM department should plan for future openings in both the short and long term. The projection of
future openings provides organizations with the time needed to plan and implement recruitment strategies
so that they do not fall prey to the "must-hire-by-last-week" syndrome. The HR plan should answer at least
the following questions:
Are any newly budgeted positions opening soon?
Is a contract under negotiation that may result in the need for additional hires?
What is the amount of expected turnover in the next several months?
STEP 2: DECIDE HOW TO FILL THE JOB OPENING
The first question to ask after determining that an opening exists is "Do we need to find a new person to fill
the vacant position?" Sometimes it is unnecessary to staff a vacant position because the firm can rely on
other alternatives. For instance, it may be more prudent to provide overtime opportunities to current workers
to complete the needed work. Other alternatives include job elimination and job redesign (i.e., incorporating
the tasks of the vacant position into currently existing positions). If the firm chooses to fill the vacancy, it
must address two issues: (1) whether to outsource, and (2) in the absence of outsourcing, whether to recruit
candidates internally or externally.
STEP 3: IDENTIFY THE TARGET POPULATION
Now the organization must determine what types of individuals it is looking for to fill the vacant positions. To
address this question, an organization must define its target population. Two issues arise here: (1) specifying
worker requirements and (2) deciding whether to target a certain segment of the applicant population.
An organization must identify specific requirements of the job: the duties, reporting relationships, salary
range for hiring, and competencies required of a new worker (e.g., education, experience, knowledge, skills,
and abilities). Ideally, much of this information will have been gathered during a job analysis and thus be
contained in the job description. If not, the recruiter should gather it from the hiring manager. An
organization must also decide at this point whether to target all qualified applicants or to focus its
recruitment efforts on certain segments of the qualified applicant population.
When recruiting internally, the issue is this: Should the company post the job so that all qualified employees
can be considered? Or should the company select certain high-potential employees and groom them for the
position? When recruiting externally, the company must decide whether to inform all potential applicants or
target certain types. Companies may reap advantages when they target members of certain groups. Another
strategy is to target graduates of specific schools that have exceptionally strong programs in the functional
areas of concern. Additionally, some companies target top-performing employees working for other
companies. Recruitment of such individuals poses some unique problems, however; these individuals may be
difficult to reach because they are not actively seeking a new job. Moreover, the practice of pirating
employees from other firms raises some serious ethical questions.
STEP 4: NOTIFY THE TARGET POPULATION
Once an applicant population has been targeted, the company must determine how to notify these
individuals of the vacant position. A variety of recruitment methods may be used for communicating
vacancies. A firm can benefit from both low-involvement and high-involvement strategies at this stage of the
recruitment process. Low-involvement strategies are things such as corporate sponsorship or advertisements
of the company's product or service may influence applicants' positive perceptions of that firm and therefore
increase applicant attraction, but do not specifically identify a job opening. High-involvement recruitment
strategies involve things such as detailed recruitment advertisements or employee endorsements, which
occur when potential applicants meet with current employees to hear more about their experiences with that
company. Both low-involvement and high-involvement strategies have a positive effect on the number of
applicants who apply for jobs with an organization and on the quality of the applicants who apply.
When choosing a specific way to notify the target population, different recruitment methods may be used.
Some popular options are internal job postings; newspaper, radio, and television advertisements; trade
magazine advertisements; INTERNET JOB sites; college campus interviews; and current employee referrals.

The choice of which to use depends on the number of positions to be filled, the cost of each recruitment
method, the characteristics of the target audience, and economic conditions.
The more positions to be filled, the more widely the firm may choose to advertise, perhaps using a
newspaper or radio advertisement. Costs differ for recruitment methods and a firm may be willing to INVEST
more in recruitment when suitable applicants are difficult to find or when poor hiring decisions may be
costly. The characteristics of the target audience influence recruitment method; for example, using an
Internet posting would be fruitless if most of the applicant pool is unlikely to have access to a computer. Poor
economic conditions, where unemployment is high, will result in higher numbers of job applicants and
possibly a lower average level of quality of applicants. In this situation, to avoid spending an inordinate
amount of time weeding through applications, firms must discourage all but the best applicants from
applying.
STEP 5: MEET WITH THE CANDIDATES
Finally, the most qualified candidates are brought in for interviews and other assessment procedures. These
serve both selection and recruitment purposes. From a selection perspective, they give the firm a chance to
further assess the candidates' qualifications. From a recruitment perspective, they provide the candidates
with an opportunity to learn more about the employment opportunity.
Candidates should be provided with information about the company and the job. Failure to provide a
sufficient amount of information could be detrimental to the recruiting process. For example, it may be
interpreted by the candidates as an attempt to evade discussion of unattractive job attributes, or it may be
viewed as an indication of the recruiter's disinterest in them. Without specific information, applicants might
accept a job offer without knowing about aspects of it that might affect their long-term job satisfaction, or
they may refuse an offer without knowing about some of the job's attractive attributes.

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
CASE STUDY : 3
Navin AGM materials, is fuming and fretting. He bumped into Kiran, GM Materials, threw the resignation letter
on his table, shouted and walked out of the room swiftly.
Navin has reason for his sudden outburst. He has been driven to the wall. Perhaps details of the story will tell
the reasons for Navins bile and why he put in his papers, barely four months after he took up his
assignment.
The year was 2005 when Navin quit the prestigious Sail plant at Mumbai. As a manager material Navin
enjoyed the power. He could even place an order for materials worth Rs 25 lakh. He needed nobodys prior
approval.
Navin joined a pulp making plant located at Pune as AGM Materials. The plant is owned by a prestigious
business house in India. Obviously perks, designation and reputation of the conglomerate lured Navin away
from the public sector.
When he joined the pulp making company, little did Navin realize that he needed prior approval to place an
order for materials worth Rs 12 lakhs. He had presumed that he had the authority to place an order by
himself worth half the amount of what he used to do at the mega steel maker. He placed the order material
arrived, were recived, accepted and used up in the plant.
Trouble started when the bill for Rs 12 lakh came from vendor. The accounts department withheld payment
for the reason that the bill was not endorsed by Kiran. Kiran rused to sign the bill as his approval was not
taken by Navin before placing the order.
Navin felt fumigated and cheated. A brief encounter with Kiran only aggrarated the problem. Navin was
curtly told that he should have known company rules before venturing. Navin decided to quit the company.

Q1) Does the company have an orientation programme?


It doesnt look like the company has an orientation programme or it is inaffective.
---------------------------------------Q2) If yes how effective is it?
It is not as effective, as it should be.
-----------------------------------------Q3) How is formal Orientation programme conducted?
The orientation process has three stages:
1 A general orientation
2 A departmental orientation, and
3 A specific job orientation
They are conducted by different parties.
The General Orientation is usually managed by either the Training Department or the Human Resources
Department, with the Departmental Orientation by the Department Head or first Assistant, while the specific
Job Orientation can be carried out by an experienced and trained employee (trained on how to train). These
guidelines are intended for people conducting the General Orientation:
A general rule of thumb for having the audience interested in the general orientation is to
1 Make them feel at ease (open circle).
2 Make sure that they had enough time to read the employee manual ahead of orientation time.
3 Spend a good portion of the introduction time towards self-introductions, spiced with open questions.
4 Get them to know who Management is: have a big chart in the orientation/training room which depicts
how the organisation is set up, with photos of the management team next to their title.
5 Get them acquainted with the operation: have another large chart in the room depicting the flow of work
and communications regarding the organization; this flow should include customers, suppliers and all parties
affecting the organisation (I had just planned such a chart for the hotel where I dealt with Training and
Development, wrote it out in text, had an artist depict it with cartoon characters on a big white chart, making
it educational but humorous - after all this was a hotel. Maybe in a technical company humour is not allowed.
I explained it to the artist and we showed how each job position affected the final product since the
customer's / guest's first contact with the operation and ending with the last contact.
6 Have them know and see departments in operation: based on this drawing I conducted the orientation
and explained all functions of the hotel, promising a personal tour of all the departments we discussed,
including back areas, where the Department Heads received us personally and gave further insight on their
departments.
7 Allay their fears and doubts: cover subjects which are usually never mentioned in orientations, such as
the difficulties new employees or supervisors experience, about turnover figures, about how people
assimilate better after hanging out three months, about how they can turn to you for any difficulties they
experience, be it regarding their rejection by existing old-timers or other matters. Let them know they can
always turn to you for confidential advice (do not forget that any new person has fears and doubts regarding
being accepted, succeeding or failing).
8 Encourage friendships among new employees: try to create a team spirit among the existing group of
newcomers - by the end of the day or the two days you will have created a group of employees at different
levels and from different departments who will cooperate and enhance communications across the
organisation.
9 Extend respect to them as human beings: have lunch with them as a group (I saw too many people who
conduct orientations go to a different lunch room and this is very insulting).
10 Enable first hand contact with upper management: have different Executives come to welcome the
group and assure them of management's commitment to help them succeed. Introduce each of the
newcomers, dwell on their position, career background and personal interests.
11 Assure them that the organisation welcomes their observations, comments, and critiques.
12 Last but not least, share company goals with them. Discuss it with them. Ask what their own personal
and career goals are and try to (right there and then) mesh their own goals with the company goals.
This strategy (action plan) has proven to be highly successful. It cuts down on turnover drastically, engenders

trust, cooperation and motivation.

Although these sessions should be welcoming, orientations for new employees should also be more than a
feel-good gesture. They should also be more than an instructional session that provides essential human
resources, benefits, and payroll information for new employees. The most effective orientations help new
employees understand what will be expected of them and prepare them for the organization's work culture.
Orient the expectations of new employees
Managing expectations has long been a mantra of salespeople, account executives, and others whose
responsibilities are focused primarily outside the organization. Expectation management falls on human
resources managers as well. Managing expectations can start as early as during new-employee orientations.
In new-employee orientations, the HR manager is essentially bringing new employees' expectations in line
with the organization's expectations. Accurately aligning these sets of expectations in the first weeks of
employment helps employees become productive more quickly and ensures that they enjoy greater job
satisfaction throughout their tenures. Some studies suggest that well-executed new-employee orientations
can also:
1 Lengthen the time that employees stay with a company.
2 Enhance staff cooperation and communication.
3 Improve client-customer relations because staff members have better work attitudes.
Communicate the organization's big picture
Where is your organization going? Even if your company has not made a formal strategic planning document,
it has communicated some important long-term goals. Too often, however, these goals aren't shared with
new employees whose efforts help determine whether the organization's goals are met. Therefore, it should
come as no surprise that employees, even entire departments, sometimes operate under disparate
assumptions about the company's priorities and objectives.
All new employees, from entry-level staff members to senior executives, should view themselves as
members of an organization-wide team working toward a defined and united goal. Certainly new employees
need to understand their specific roles, but first they need to understand the big-picture objectives of the
organization, including objectives such as:
1 Is the organization striving to be an industry innovator?
2 Is the organization working to develop an international presence?
Whatever the objectives, new employees should be given a brief introduction to your organization's goals. If
you can, provide a copy of your annual report or a company brochure that explains your organization's goals.
With a bigger-picture perspective, employees are better equipped to understand their specific role as it
relates to long-term objectives.
Describe the unspoken company culture
Company culture can't be fully captured in job descriptions or employee manuals, because culture is both
explicit and unspoken. Most employees determine what behaviors are acceptable as the organization
evolves. However, an effective orientation can help new employees transition more easily into the unique
culture of your organization.
Even in highly conventional corporate cultures, it's preferable to share the unspoken aspects of company
culture to ensure that all new employees understand their work environments. Don't make the mistake of
assuming that cultural nuances are obvious or that new employees will raise questions if they're unsure
about what to wear or when to arrive at work.
Some unspoken aspects of company culture to share are:
1 Dress code What's the norm for the dress code?
2 Internal communication Is vertical communication encouraged or frowned upon?
3 Phone etiquette Do employees routinely forward their phone calls to voice mail?
4 Parking Are there any unspoken rules about where employees can park?
5 Lunch Do most employees eat in or out? Are there good places to eat nearby?
6 Work hours Are work hours fixed or flexible?
7 Extracurricular activities Are there groups of employees that get together outside work?
8 Attitudes Are work teams more cooperative or more competitive?
Share the routine details
As a seasoned HR professional, you probably already use a comprehensive checklist to ensure that new
employees receive and complete all required documentation, from W-4 forms to insurance forms to e-mail

account requests. Unfortunately, the sheer volume of this paperwork can eclipse the routine information that
new employees need on their very first day.
To help new employees get started, be sure that they know:
1 The layout of your office or campus A tour is preferable, but at the very least provide a user-friendly map.
2 The location of the restrooms Inform them of the locations of restrooms near their work areas.
3 Names and contact information of two coworkers Give them the contact information of two coworkers in
their department, besides their immediate supervisor or hiring manager.
Outline the employee's specific role
The best way for new employees to become productive quickly is by immersing themselves in their new
positions.
Immerse new employees in their jobs For positions with formal training, immersion is easy. New employees
simply pass from orientation to training, often in the same day. For positions without formal training, role
immersion can be more difficult.
Too often, supervisors and managers aren't available when new employees start, so employees are left with
little more to do than read the company handbook during their first few days on the job. This can be
confusing, especially for new employees who are expecting a challenging, fast-paced environment.
Introduce new employees to their jobs The best employee orientations conclude with introductions to each
employee's specific job role. If several employees in a single role have been hired at one time, this
introduction can occur in a group setting. Otherwise, new employees should receive one-on-one introductions
from their managers or team leaders as part of their orientation.
Orient employees for success
Starting a new job always involves a learning curve, but effective orientations can help new employees make
the transition by equipping them with:
1 An understanding of company goals.
2 An appreciation for the company's unique culture.
3 Routine information to get started.
4 An introduction to their role within the organization.
Employees who are well oriented to the company and to their jobs are ready to begin making a significant
contribution.
##########################################
Q4) If you were Navin what would have you done?
1.DISCUSS THE PROS/CONS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM AND THE NEED FOR REVISION FOR THE SAKE
OF OPERATION EFFICIENY.
####################
CASE STUDY : 4
Bitter it may taste, shrill it may sound, and sleepless nights it may cause, but it is true. In a major shake up
Airbus. The European aircraft manufacturers has thrown a big shock to its employees. Before coming to the
details of the shock, a peep into the companys resume.
Name Airbus
Created 1970
President CEO : Vijay M.
Employees 57000
Turnover 26 Bn (Euro)
Total Aircraft sold (Feb 2007) 7187
Delivered 4598
Headquarters Paris (France)
Facilities 16
Rival Boeing
Airbus announced on February 27, 2007 that it would shed 10,000 jobs across four European contries and sell
six of its unit. N the same day the helpless workers did what was expected of them downed tools and
staged protests. The protesting workers at Airbuss factory at Meaulte, northern France, were seen picketing
outside the factory gate after holding up production a day earlier. To be fair to Airbus, its management
entered talks with unions before the job loss and sale was formally announced. But the talks did not mollify

the agitated workers.


Job sheating and hiring of units are a part of Power and restructuring plan unleashed by Airbus to save itself
from increasing loss of its ground to the arch rival, Boeing Co.
Airbus Power & Strategy was first mooted in October 2006 but sparkled a split between France & Germany
over the distribution of job losses and the placement of future ones. Later the two countries agreed to share
both job losses and new technology.
The power and plan, if finalized, would mean a 3 per cent reduction to Airbuss 55000 employee strength.

Q1) Why should Power and focus on shedding jobs to save on cost?
It is a mean to save the company and carry on the good work.
------------------------------------Q2) Are there no alternative strategies?
THRER ARE ALTERNATIVES BUT THE FUNDING IS THE MAJOR CONSTRAINT.
--------------------------------------Q3) Will the proposed shedding of jobs and scale of six units help airbus survive the intense competition from
Boeing?
YES, THIS IS THE EXACT SITUATION.
----------------------------------Q4) Comment on the whole issue?
THES WHOLE ISSUE COULD HAVE BEEN AVOIDED, IF THERE WAS AN EFFECTIVE STRATEGIC
PLANNING.
#########################

Question
CASE STUDY: 1
The bulbs manufactured by a company gave a mean life of 3000 hours with standard
deviation of 400 hours. If a bulb is selected at random, what is the probability it will
have a mean life less than 2000 hours?
Question:
1) Calculate the probability.
2) In what situation does one need probability theory?
3) Define the concept of sample space, sample points and events in context of
probability theory.
4) What is the difference between objective and subjective probability?
CASE STUDY : 2
The price P per unit at which a company can sell all that it produces is given by the
function P(x) = 300 4x. The cost function is c(x) = 500 + 28x where x is the number
of units produced. Find x so that the profit is maximum.
Question:
1) Find the value of x.
2) In using regression analysis for making predictions what are the assumptions
involved.
3) What is a simple linear regression model?
4) What is a scatter diagram method?
CASE STUDY : 3
Mr Sehwag invests Rs 2000 every year with a company, which pays interest at 10% p.a.
He allows his deposit to accumulate at C.I. Find the amount to the credit of the person
at the end of 5th year.
Question :
1) What is the Time Value of Money concept.
2) What do you mean by present value of money?

3) What is the Future Value of money.


4) What the amount to be credited at the end of 5th year.
CASE STUDY : 4
The cost of fuel in running of an engine is proportional to the square of the speed and is
Rs 48 per hour for speed of 16 kilometers per hour. Other expenses amount to Rs 300
per hour. What is the most economical speed?
Question:
1) What is most economical speed?
2) What is a chi-square test?
3) What is sampling and what are its uses.
4) Is there any alternative formula to find the value of Chi-square?
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Answer
HERE IS SOME SOME USEFUL MATERIAL.
SOME ANSWERS HELD BACK DUE TO SPACE CONSTRAINT.
PLEASE FORWARD THESE BALANCE QUESTIONS TO MY EMAIL ID
leolingham@gmail.com.
I will send the balance asap.
Regards
LEO LINGHAM
==========================================

CASE STUDY: 1
The bulbs manufactured by a company gave a mean life of 3000 hours with standard
deviation of 400 hours. If a bulb is selected at random, what is the probability it will
have a mean life less than 2000 hours?
Question:
1) Calculate the probability.
The bulbs manufactured by a company gave a mean life of 3000 hours with standard
deviation of 400 hours. If a bulb is selected at random, what is the probability it will have a mean life less
than 2000 hours
----z(2000) = (2000-3000)/400 = -1000/400 = -5/2
------P(x < 2000) = P(z < -5/2) = binomcdf(-100,-5/2) = 0.0062
================
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
2) In what situation does one need probability theory?

Probability theory is applied to situations where uncertainty exists. These situations include
1. The characterization of traffic at the intersection US 460 and Peppers Ferry Road (i.e., the number of cars
that cross the intersection as a function of time)
2. The prediction of the weather in Blacksburg
3. The number of students traversing the Drill Field between 8:50 and 9:00 on Mondays
4. The thermally induced (Brownian) motion of molecules in a
(a) copper wire
(b) a JFET amplifier
Note that the latter two situations would resort in a phenomenon known as noise whose power would be a
function of the Temperature of the molecules.
In all of these situations, we could develop an excellent approximation or prediction for each of these
experiments. However, we would never be able to characterize them with absolute certainty (i.e.,
deterministically). However, we could characterize them in a probabilistic fashion (or probabilistically) via the
elements of probability theory. This is what weather forecasters are doing when they say
The chance of rain tomorrow is 40% In such cases they are saying that the probability of a rain even is 0.4.
Other probabilistic characterizations include
One the average 300 cars per minute cross US 460 and Peppers Ferry Road at Noon on Saturdays. The
chances of so many cars crossing that intersection at 8:00 AM on Sunday is very small
The average noise power produced by this amplifier is 1W
Scientists and Engineers apply the theories of Probability and Random Processes to those repeating
situations in nature where
1. We can roughly predict what may happen.
2. We cannot exactly determine what may happen
Whenever we cannot exactly predict an occurrence, we say that such an occurrences is random. Random
occurrences occur for the following reasons
All the causal forces at work are unknown.
Insufficient data for the conditions of the problem do not exist
The physical mechanisms driving the problem are so complicated that the direct calculation of the
problem is not feasible
There exists some basic indeterminacy in the physical world
The Notions of Probability
One can approach probability through an abstract mathematical concept called measure theory, which
results in the axiomatic theory of probability, or through heuristic approach called relative frequency, which is
a less complete (and slightly flawed) definition of probability. However, it suits our need for this course.
Student's that continue on to graduate studies will be introduced to the more abstract but powerful axiomatic
theory. Before continuing it is necessary to define the following important terms
Definition 1 An experiment is a set of rules that governs a specific operation that is being performed
Definition 2 A trial is the performance or exercise of that experiment
Definition 3 An outcome is the result of a given trial
Definition 4 An event is an outcome or any combination of outcomes
Example 1 Consider the experiment of selecting at random one card from a deck of 52 playing cards and
writing down the number an suit of that cared. Notice that the rules are well defined
1. We have a deck of cards
2. Somebody selects the card
3. The records the result
Suppose somebody decided to perform the experiment. We would then say that he/she conducted a trial. The
result of that trial could have been the 3 of spades (or 34). Hence the outcome would be: 3. Another
outcome could have been 10 or J. Indeed there are as many as 52 possible outcomes. An event is a
collection of possible outcomes. So 3 is an event. However, 10 is also an event, and J is an event as well.
Further {3, J}, {3, 10}, and {2, 5, K, A} are also events. Any combination of possible outcomes is an
event. Note that for this experiment, there are 252 = 4.50359962737 x 1015 different events
The Axiomatic Theory of Probability
This is actually an application of a mathematical theory called Measure Theory. Both theories apply
basic concepts from set theory.
The axiomatic theory of probability is based on a triplet
(,,P) where
is the sample space, which is the set of all possible outcomes
is the sigma algebra or sigma field, which is the set of all possible events (or combination of outcomes)

P is the probability function, which can be any set function, whose domain is and the range is the
closed unit interval [0,1] , i.e., any number between 0 and 1 including 0 and 1. The only requirement for this
function is that it must obey the following three rules
(a) P [] = 1
(b) Let A be any event in , then P [A] 0
(c) Let A and B be two events in such that A B = , then P [A U B] = P [A] + P [B]
Relative Frequency Definition.
The relative frequency approach is based on the following definition: Suppose we conduct a large number of
trials of this a given experiment. The probability that a given event, say A, is the following limit
where nA is the number of occurrences and n is the number of trials.
For example suppose we conduct the above experiment 10,000 times (n = 10000). Further suppose the
event A = {3} occurred 188 times (nA = 188). Then
As n increased to infinity (and assuming that the cards are fair), then the ratio would approach the probability
of A
Suppose the event B was the set of all spades. Then
B = {A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K}
Now we say that The event B occurs whenever an outcome is of a trial is contained in B. In this case,
whenever the outcome of a trial contains a 4b, the outcome belongs to B and we say that B occurred. So,
suppose we conducted the above experiment 10, 000 times, and the event B occurred 3000 times. Then
As n increased to infinity (and assuming that the cards are fair), then the ratio would approach the probability
of B
Note that this definition makes sense. Since P [B] = , it follows that the chance of B occurring in any given
trial is 25%. Similarly, the chance of a 4 occurring from a particular trial is (1/52) 100 or 1.9%. However,
note that the probability of any event will always be a number between 0 and 1. Now, suppose the event C
consists of the set of all diamonds. Then
C = {A, 2,3,4,5, 6,7, 8,9,10, J, Q, K}
Let's look at both B and C. Note that none of the members in B belong to C and none of the members in C
belong to B. We say that B and C are disjoint and that their intersection is the empty set
C=
In this case the probability of either B or C occurring is equal to
(2)
where the U symbol stands for the union of two sets. Note that (2) describes the additive concept of
probability: If two events are disjoint, then the probability of their sum is the sum of their probabilities.
Finally, let the event equal all possible outcome. We call the certain event or the sample space. Since
every possible outcome is contained in this event, n = n. Therefore
(3)
Example 2 Consider the experiment of flipping a fair coin twice and observing the output. What are the
possible outcomes? List all possible events. Assume that all outcomes are equally likely, assign probabilities
to each event. The set of all possible outcomes is
= {HH, HT, TH, TT} There are 24 = 16 events. They are
{HH},{HT},{TH},{TT}
{HH, HT} , {HH, TH} , {HH, TT} , {HT, TH} , {HT, TT} , {TH, TT} {HH, HT, TH} , {HH, HT, TT} , {HH, TH,
TT} , {HT, TH, TT} {HH, HT, TH, TT} ,
Note that {HH, HT, TH, TT} is the certain event. Therefore
P [{HH, HT, TH, TT}] = 1 (4)
However, from the additive property, it follows that
P [{HH, HT, TH, TT}] = P [{HH}] + P [{HT}] + P [{TH}] + P [{TT}] (5)
but since each outcome is equally likely we have that
P [{HH}] = P [{HT}] = P [{TH}] = P [{TT}]
(6)
Therefore from (5) and (6), it follows that
P [{HH}} = P [{HT}} = P [{TH}} = P [{TT}} = (7)
Using the additive concept of probability we can see that
P [{HH, HT}] = P [{HH, TH}] = P [{HH, TT}] =

= P [{HT, TH}] = P [{HT, TT}] = P [{TH, TT}] = (8)


P [{HH, HT, TH}] = P [{HH, HT, TT}] = P [{HH, TH, TT}] = P [{HT, TH, TT}] = 3/4
(9)
P[] = 0 (10)
Joint Probability
Let the events D and E be defined as follows
D ={4, 2, 8, 4}
E ={4, K, 4, 2}
Note that
P[D] = 4/52 = 1/3
P[E] = 4/52 = 1/13
Then the intersection of D and E is another event that contains the elements of D and E
D E ={4, 2}
and
P[D E] = P[V,] = P[D and E] = 1/16
(11)
We call P [D E] = P [D, E] = P[D and E] the joint probability of D and E. It describes the probability of both
events occurring
Conditional Probability
In a number of cases, knowledge about one event provides us additional information about the occurrence of
another event. Suppose that we conduct an experiment and we find out that D has occurred. Thus we know
that the outcome was either a A, 2, 8), or 4. Does this tell us anything about the occurrence of E The
answer is yes.
Given that D has occurred, we know that the outcome was either A, 19, 8), or 4. Since each outcome is
equally likely, and we know that these are now the only for possibilities, we have that the probability of each
of these outcomes given that D has occurred is in other words
P [A|D] = P [2|D] = P [8|D] = P [4|D] =
(12)
Note that P [A|B] means the probability of A given the B has occurred
Now look at the event E = {4, K4(t, 4, 2}. Given that D has occurred and that the possible outcomes were
only A, 2, 8, or 4, we can conclude that the outcomes 4 and K could hot have happened because 4
and K are not in D. Therefore
P[4|D] = P[K|D] = 0
(13)
Therefore, given that we know D has occurred, we can write the probability of E as follows
P[E|D] = P[4|D] + P[K|D] + P[8|D]+P[4|D]
=0+0++=
We can also compute the probability of E given that D has occurred using the following definition.
Definition 5 Let A and B be two events from the same experiment. Then the conditional probability of A given
B, P[A|B] is defined as follows
(15)
If P [B] = 0, then P[A|B] is undefined. So, for the case of E given that D, we have that
Similarly for the case of A given C above we have that
Another important concept in probability is independence.
Definition 6 Let A and B be two events from the same experiment. Then A and B are said to be independent if
the joint probability of A and B is equal to the product of their two individual probabilities.
P [A, B] = P [A] P [B]
(16)
From this it follows that
(17)
This implies if two events are independent, the knowledge about one event provides absolutely know
information about the other event.
Random Variables
You may have noticed thus far that we have working with sets and events that contain odd symbols such as
3, 4, 5, 6,.... Other examples, both in this note set and the book, have worked with events with
other symbols such as {HH} for the coin problem and {...} for the dice problem. We would like to
perform some mathematical analysis and manipulation on these events. However, such a task would be
difficult and would not provide any insight.
It would be better if we could assign (or map) each outcome a number. The we could work with these
numbers using the standard mathematical techniques that we have learned over the years.
Example 3 Consider our card experiment. Suppose we assign each card an integer as follows

A->1
2->2
...
K->13
A->14
2->15
...
K->26
A->27
2->28
...
K->39
A->40
2->41
...
K->52
Then each card is assigned an integer on the real line. Suppose we assign this mapping the function X ( ),
where is any outcome
Such a mapping is called a random variable.
Definition 7 A random variable, X () is a deterministic function that assigns each outcome, , in an
experiment, a number.
X : -> R
(18)
So that P [X () = ] = P [X () = -] = 0
The first thing you can notice about a random variable is that
1. There is nothing random about it
2. It is not a variable. Rather it is a set function.
However, in performing analysis, it is convenient to treat X () as a variable. Consider a second example of a
random variable, since the random variable is a function of an outcome, which has an associated probability,
the random variable also has an associated probability.
P[X() = x] = P( = X-1(x))
Example 4 Consider the same card experiment. Suppose we define a random variable S () such that
if contains a S() = 1
if contains a S() = 2
if contains a S() = 3
if contains a S() = 4
Note that the outcome can be assigned the same number. The function defined by the random variable can
by any set function provided that the associated probabilities as the is zero
What about the probabilities
A random variable is a function of the outcomes of an experiment. Therefore, since each outcome has a
probability, the number assigned to that function by a random variable, also has a probability. The probability
of a given random variable is determined as follows.
P[X() = x] = P[ = X-1(x)]
where X -1(x) is a mapping from the real line, R, to the set of all outcomes, .
Example 5 Consider the random variable X () defined in Example 3
P[X() = 1] = P[ = X-1]=P[ = A]= 1/52;
P[X() = 26] = P[ = X-1(26)]=P[ = K] = 1/52
P[X () = 28.9] = P [ = X-1(28.9)] =P [] = 0
P[X() = 0] = P[ = X-1(0)]=P[]=0
P[X()2] = P{=X-1(-,2]} = P[ = {A,2}] = 2/52
Example 6 Consider the random, variable S (), defined in Example 4
P[S () = 1] = P[( = S -1(1)]
= P[ = {A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K}] =
P[S () = 2] = P[ = S -1(2)]=
P [S () = 2.5] = P[ = S -1(2.5)}=P[4]=0
P[2S()3] = P{ = S -1 [2,3]} =P[= {all and all }] =
Cumulative Distribution Functions and Probability Density Functions
Two ways to analyze experiments via random variables is through the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

and probability density function (pdf)


Definition 8 Let X () be a random variable defined on a sample space . Then the Cumulative Distribution
Function (CDF) of X is denoted by the function Fx (x0) and is defined as follows
Fx (x0) = P[X x0]
where the set [X x0] defines an event or a collection of outcomes.
Example 7 Consider the random variable in Example 3. The CDF of X is

Example 8 Consider the random variable in Example 4- The CDF of S is


Fs (so) = u (s0 -l) + u (s0 -2) + u (s0 - 3) + u (s0 - 4)
So

Definition 9 Let X () be a random variable defined on a sample space . Then the Probability Density
Function (pdf) of X is denoted by the symbol fx (x) and is defined as the derivative of its CDF
(24) Note that we can recover the CDF from the PDF through integration
(25) Therefore fx (x) will always integrate to 1
Furthermore, the probability that X () is between x1 and x2, x2 < x1 and x<i inclusive, can be computed as
follows
Note that the argument, , has been dropped from the random variable, X. For the remainder of this
discussion, we will assume that the dependence of a random variable X on is implicit and omit the
argument for convenience
Moments of Random Variables
Moments of random variables include a number of quantities such as averages, variances, standard
deviations, etc. They are particularly useful in communications because they provide valuable information
about a random variable with having to know its statistics (i.e., the CDF or pdf)
Definition 10 Let X be a random variable with the pdf fx (x). Then the expected value or average of X, is
(28)
Definition 11 Let X be a random variable with pdf fx (x). Then, the variance of X is
and the standard deviation of X is
Definition 12 Let X be a random variable with pdf fx (x). Then, the nth moment of X is
and the nth central moment of X is
(32)
Finally, let X be a random variable and let g (X) be some function of that random variable. In most cases this
g (X) will transform X into a new random variable, which we will call Y
Y = g(X)
(33)
which has its own CDF and pdf, which must be found through the use of random variable transformation
techniques. However, if we are interested in the moments of Y, such as its average, then knowledge about
Y's CDF or pdf are not required. Rather we can just use the already known CDF and pdf of X.
Theorem 1 Let X be a random variable with pdf fx (x). Let Y = g (X) be some transformation of X. Then the
expected value or average of Y is
Example 9 Let X be a random variable with the following pdf

Functions of a Random Variable


Definition 1 Consider a function of a random variable, g(X). The result is another random variable, which we
could call Y, Y = g(X). However the CDF and pdf of Y will be different than the CDF and pdf of X. In fact we will

use information about the Fx (x), fx (x), and g (X) to determine Fy (y) and fy (y)
The distribution of Y = g(X)
The PDF of the random variable, Y, is nothing more than the probability of the event that {Y y}. This
consists of all outcomes such that Y () Y This is equivalent to the set of all outcomes such that
g [X ()] y, and this is equivalent to the set of all outcome such that X () g-1(y). So
F(y) = P({Y y}) = P({g(X) y}) = P({X g-1(y)})
(36)
The Probability Density Function (pdf) of Y = g (X)
Once the PDF of Y is computed, the computation of the pdf of Y is straightforward
fY(y) = dFY(y) / dy
Examples
Example 10 Let X be a random, variable. Let
Y = g (X) = 2X + 1
Find Fy (y) and fy (y). To find Fy (y), we must evaluate the event {Y y} where Y is the random variable and
y is simply a number. Consider the following graph
{Yy}
The shaded vertical line corresponds to the event { :() y} and the horizontal line corresponds to the
event { : X () (y 1)}. Both events have the exact same outcomes. Therefore
Therefore
{Y y} = {2X + 1 y} = {X (y - 1)} = {X g-1 (y)}
Note that the inverse function g-1(Y) is
g-1(Y)=(X - l)
So
FY(y) = P[Y y]=P[2X + l y] = P[X (y - 1) = Fx((y - 1))
Now suppose X was uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. Then
,
We can
y=0
y=1
y=2
y=3
So

now plot Fy (y). Let's plug in some values


Fy(0) = Fx((0 - 1))=Fx(-)=0
Fy(l) = Fx (1 - 1) = Fx (0) = 0
Fy (2) = Fx (2 - 1) = Fx () =
Fy(3) = Fx ( (3 - 1)) = Fx (1) = 1

The density of Y, fy (y), is simply


and from, (41) we have that
We can also compute the fy (y) as follows
Substituting (38) into the above equation, we get the same result as (43).
Example 11 Let X be a random variable. Let
Y = g(X) = X2
Then for y 0, we have that Y y, when X2 y for -y X y.
Note that in this case there are two inverse functions for g (X)
g-11(Y) = Y
g-12(Y) = -Y
So
FY (y) = P(Y y) = P(X2 = y) = P(-y X y) = Fx (y) - Fx (-y)
and
Now for y<0, there are no values of x such that x2 < y. therefore
FY{y)=0 y < 0
Again, suppose X is uniform between the interval [0,1]. Then we have that
and

F(x)
Figure 1: pdf of a Gaussian Random Variable
Common Random Variables
The Gaussian Random Variable
The Gaussian random variable is the most common of all random variables. It is used to characterize a
number of random phenomenon such as noise most communication system to the random fluctuations of the
desired received voltage in non-line-of-sight wireless communications systems such as cellular systems and
personal communication systems. The Gaussian random variable has a pdf which is completely defined by its
mean m and variance 2. Let X be a Gaussian random variable with a mean of mx and a variance of 2x.
Then, fx (x) is
and is plotted as follows. The CDF of X is found in the usual way
This integral cannot be evaluated in closed form. However the integral is well tabulated. A tabulation
common to communication engineers is the Q-function where
Therefore,
Other well tabulated integrals include the error function and the complementary error function. The error
function is defined as follows
The complementary error function is
Note that the complementary error function and the Q-function are related as follows
Note that P [x1 < X < x2 is computed as follows
The Rayliegh Random Variable
Let X and Y be two independent Gaussian random variables with mx = my = 0 and 2x = 2y = 2. Suppose
we define a new random variable Z from the transformation
Now if X and Y represent the received voltages from two signal components in a wireless channel, then Z
represents the received envelope, namely , Z is called a Rayliegh random, variable. The pdf of Z
is
and is plotted below for various values of 2x = y2 = 2
The CDF of Z is found by integrating the pdf. Therefore
The received signal envelop in a cellular or PCS system, where line-of-sight is not established, is typically
modeled clS Qb Rayliegh random variable
The Exponential Random Variable
Let Z be a Rayleigh random variable. Suppose we define a new random variable, W, such that
W = Z2
If Z represents the voltage envelope of a signal, the W represents the power in a signal, to within a constant.
Then W has the following pdf
W is called an exponential random variable, and the pdf of w looks as follows
The CDF of W is
Exponential random variables are used to model the power of cellular and PCS systems where line-of-sight
propagation is not established
Uniform Random Variable
In systems or signals where the phase is not known, it is generally modeled as a random variable , which is
uniformly distributed between 0 and 2. The pdf of such a random variable is

The CDF is
The Central Limit Theorem
Suppose we take a large number of random variables and sum them together. The central limit theorem
states that the resultant random variable will have a Gaussian distribution. This is one of the reasons why
Gaussian random variables are so common. A more formal statement of the theorem follows
Theorem 2 Let Xi, i = 1, 2,..., N be a collection of independent random variables with a mean of 0 and a
variance of 1. Define a new random variable, Y, as follows
Then Y is a Gaussian random variable with a mean of 0 and a variance of 1, i.e., my = 0, 2y = 1.
Rician Random Variables
We just learned that when line-of-sight does not exist in a cellular system, that the received envelope follows
a Rayliegh distribution. However, if line-of-sight is established, then the signal follows a Rician distribution,
which has the following pdf
where I0 () is the modified Bessel function of the 0th order. Note that when v = 0, Iq (0) = 1 and Z
degenerates to a Rayliegh distribution.
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

3) Define the concept of sample space, sample points and events in context of
probability theory.
Define the concept of sample space in context of probability theory
In probability theory, the sample space of an experiment or random trial is the set of all possible outcomes or
results of that experiment. A sample space is usually denoted using set notation, and the possible outcomes
are listed as elements in the set. It is common to refer to a sample space by the labels S, , or U (for
"universal set").
For example, if the experiment is tossing a coin, the sample space is typically the set {head, tail}. For tossing
two coins, the corresponding sample space would be {(head,head), (head,tail), (tail,head), (tail,tail)}. For
tossing a single six-sided die, the typical sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} (in which the result of interest is
the number of pips facing up).
A well-defined sample space is one of three basic elements in a probabilistic model (a probability space); the
other two are a well-defined set of possible events (a sigma-algebra) and a
probability assigned to each event (a probability measure function).
=======================================
Sample space, sample points and events
Let be a set of things that can happen. We say that is a sample space, or space of all possible outcomes, if it
satisfies the following two properties:
1. Mutually exclusive outcomes. Only one of the things in will happen. That is, when we learn that has
happened, then we also know that none of the things in the set has happened.
2. Exhaustive outcomes. At least one of the things in will happen.
An element is called a sample point, or a possible outcome.
When, and if, we learn that has happened, is called the realized outcome.
A subset is called an event. In the section below, you will see that not every subset of the sample space is,
strictly speaking, an event; however, on a first reading you can be happy with this definition.
Note that itself is an event, because every set is a subset of itself, and the empty set is also an event,
because it can be considered a subset of .
Example Suppose that we toss a die. Six numbers, from 1 to 6, can appear face up, but we do not yet know
which one of them will appear. The sample space is: Each of the six numbers is a sample point. The
outcomes are mutually exclusive, because only one number at a time can appear face up. The outcomes are
also exhaustive, because at least one of the six numbers will appear face up, after we toss the die. Define:
is an event (a subset of ). It can be described as "an odd number appears face up". Now define: Also is an
event and it can be described as "the number 6 appears face up".
Probability and its properties
The probability of an event is a real number, attached to the event, that tells us how likely that event is. We

denote the probability of an event by .


Probability needs to satisfy the following properties:
1. Range. For any event , .
2. Sure thing. .
3. Sigma-additivity (or countable additivity). Let be a sequence of events. Let all the events in the
sequence be mutually exclusive, i.e., if . Then:
Property (1) is self-explanatory. It just means that the probability of an event is a real number between 0 and
1.
Property (2) says that at least one of all the things that can possibly happen will happen with probability 1.
Property (3) is a bit more cumbersome. It can be proved (see below) that if sigma-additivity holds, then also
the following holds:
This property, called finite additivity, while very similar to sigma-additivity, is easier to interpret. It says that
if two events are disjoint, then the probability that either one or the other happens is equal to the sum of
their individual probabilities.
Example Suppose that we flip a coin. The possible outcomes are either tail ( ) or head ( ), i.e.: There are a
total of four subsets of (events): itself, the empty set , the event and the event . The following assignment
of probabilities satisfies the properties enumerated above: All these probabilities are between 0 and 1, so the
range property is satisfied. , so the sure thing property is satisfied. Also sigma-additivity is satisfied,
because: and the four couples , , , are the only four possible couples of disjoint sets.
Before ending this section, two remarks are in order. First, we have not discussed the interpretations of
probability, but below you can find a brief discussion of the interpretations of probability. Second, we have
been somewhat sloppy in defining events and probability, but you can find a more rigorous definition of
probability below.
Other properties of probability
The following subsections discuss other properties enjoyed by probability.
The probability of the empty set is 0
Here we prove that .
Proof
Define a sequence of event as follows: The sequence is a sequence of disjoint events, because the empty
set is disjoint from any other set. Then: which implies and .
A sigma-additive function is additive
A sigma-additive function is also additive:
Proof
Define a sequence of events as follows: The sequence is a sequence of disjoint events, because the empty
set is disjoint from any other set. Then:
Probability of the complement
Let be an event and its complement (i.e. the set of all elements of that do not belong to ). Then
Proof
Note that: and that and are disjoint sets. Then, using the sure thing property and finite additivity, we obtain:
which implies
In other words, the probability that an event does not occur is equal to one minus the probability that it
occurs.
Probability of a union
We have already seen how to compute in the special case in which and are two disjoint events. In the more
general case, in which they are not necessarily disjoint, the formula is:
Proof
This is proved as follows. First note that: so that: Furthermore the event can be written as follows: and the
three events on the right hand side are disjoint. Thus:
Monotonicity of probability
If two events and are such that , then:
Proof
This is easily proved using additivity: where the latter inequality is a consequence of the fact that (by the
range property of probability).
In other words, if occurs less often than , because the latter contemplates more occurrences, then the
probability of must be less than the probability of .
Interpretations of probability
This subsection briefly discusses some common interpretations of probability. Although none of these
interpretations is sufficient per se to clarify the meaning of probability, they all touch upon important aspects

of probability.
Classical interpretation of probability
According to the classical definition of probability, when all the possible outcomes of an experiment are
equally likely, the probability of an event is the ratio between the number of outcomes that are favorable to
the event and the total number of possible outcomes. While intuitive, this definition has two main
drawbacks:
1. it is circular, because it uses the concept of probability to define probability: it is based on the assumption
of 'equally likely' outcomes, where equally likely means 'having the same probability';
2. it is limited in scope, because it does not allow to define probability when the possible outcomes are not
all equally likely.
Frequentist interpretation of probability
According to the frequentist definition of probability, the probability of an event is the relative frequency of
the event itself, observed over a large number of repetitions of the same experiment. In other words, it is the
limit to which the ratio: converges when the number of repetitions of the experiment tends to infinity. Despite
its intuitive appeal, also this definition of probability has some important drawbacks:
1. it assumes that all probabilistic experiments can be repeated many times, which is false;
2. it is also somewhat circular, because it implicitly relies on a Law of Large Numbers, which can be derived
only after having defined probability.
Subjectivist interpretation of probability
According to the subjectivist definition of probability, the probability of an event is related to the willingness
of an individual to accept bets on that event. Suppose a lottery ticket pays off 1 dollar in case the event
occurs and 0 in case the event does not occur. An individual is asked to set a price for this lottery ticket, at
which she must be indifferent between being a buyer or a seller of the ticket. The subjective probability of
the event is defined to be equal to the price thus set by the individual. Also this definition of probability has
some drawbacks:
1. different individuals can set different prices, therefore preventing an objective assessment of
probabilities;
2. the price an individual is willing to pay to participate in a lottery can be influenced by other factors that
have nothing to do with probability; for example, an individual's betting behavior can be influenced by her
preferences.
Rigorous definitions
A more rigorous definition of event
The definition of event given above is not entirely rigorous. Often, statisticians work with probability models
where some subsets of the sample space are not considered events. This happens mainly for the following
two reasons:
1. sometimes, the sample space is a really complicated set; to make things simpler, attention is restricted
to only some subsets of the sample space;
2. sometimes, it is possible to assign probabilities only to some subsets of the sample space; in these cases,
only the subsets to which probabilities can be assigned are considered events.
Denote by the space of events, i.e. the set of subsets of that are considered events. In rigorous probability
theory, it is required to be a sigma-algebra.
Definition is a sigma-algebra on if it is a set of subsets of satisfying the following three properties:
1. Whole set. .
2. Closure under complementation. If then also (the complement is the set of all elements of that do not
belong to ).
3. Closure under countable unions. If is a sequence of subsets of belonging to , then:
Why is a space of events required to satisfy these properties? Besides a number of mathematical reasons, it
seems pretty intuitive that they must be satisfied. Property 1) means that the space of events must include
the event "something will happen", quite a trivial requirement! Property 2) means that if "one of the things in
the set will happen" is considered an event, then also "none of the things in the set will happen" is
considered an event. This is quite natural: if you are considering the possibility that an event will happen,
then, by necessity, you must also be simultaneously considering the possibility that the same event will not
happen. Property 3) is a bit more complex. However, the following property, implied by 3), is probably easier
to interpret: It means that if "one of the things in will happen" and "one of the things in will happen" are
considered two events, then also "either one of the things in or one of the things in will happen" must be
considered an event. This simply means that if you are able to separately assess the possibility of two events
happening, then, of course, you must be able to assess the possibility of either one or the other happening.
Property 3) simply extends this intuitive property to countable collection of events: the extension is needed

for mathematical reasons, to derive certain continuity properties of probability measures.


A more rigorous definition of probability
The definition of probability given above was not entirely rigorous. Now that we have defined sigma-algebras
and spaces of events, we can make it completely rigorous.
Definition Let be a sigma-algebra on the sample space . A function is a probability measure if and only if it
satisfies the following two properties:
1. Sure thing. .
2. Sigma-additivity. Let be any sequence of elements of such that implies . Then:
Nothing new has been added to the definition given above. This definition just clarifies that a probability
measure is a function defined on a sigma-algebra of events. Hence, it is not possible to properly speak of
probability for subsets of the sample space that do not belong to the sigma-algebra.
A triple is called a probability space.

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
4) What is the difference between objective and subjective probability?
Probability
A probability provides a quantatative description of the likely occurrence of a particular event. Probability is
conventionally expressed on a scale from 0 to 1; a rare event has a probability close to 0, a very common
event has a probability close to 1.
The probability of an event has been defined as its long-run relative frequency. It has also been thought of as
a personal degree of belief that a particular event will occur (subjective probability).
In some experiments, all outcomes are equally likely. For example if you were to choose one winner in a raffle
from a hat, all raffle ticket holders are equally likely to win, that is, they have the same probability of their
ticket being chosen. This is the equally-likely outcomes model and is defined to be:
P(E) = number of outcomes corresponding to event E
________________________________________total number of outcomes
Examples
1. The probability of drawing a spade from a pack of 52 well-shuffled playing cards is 13/52 = 1/4 = 0.25
since
event E = 'a spade is drawn';
the number of outcomes corresponding to E = 13 (spades);
the total number of outcomes = 52 (cards).
2. When tossing a coin, we assume that the results 'heads' or 'tails' each have equal probabilities of 0.5.

Subjective Probability
A subjective probability describes an individual's personal judgement about how likely a particular event is to
occur. It is not based on any precise computation but is often a reasonable assessment by a knowledgeable
person.
Like all probabilities, a subjective probability is conventionally expressed on a scale from 0 to 1; a rare event
has a subjective probability close to 0, a very common event has a subjective probability close to 1.
A person's subjective probability of an event describes his/her degree of belief in the event.
Example
A Rangers supporter might say, "I believe that Rangers have probability of 0.9 of winning the Scottish
Premier Division this year since they have been playing really well."

Independent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of the events gives us no information about whether or
not the other event will occur; that is, the events have no influence on each other.
In probability theory we say that two events, A and B, are independent if the probability that they both occur
is equal to the product of the probabilities of the two individual events, i.e.
The idea of independence can be extended to more than two events. For example, A, B and C are
independent if:
a. A and B are independent; A and C are independent and B and C are independent (pairwise

independence);
b.
If two events are independent then they cannot be mutually exclusive (disjoint) and vice versa.
Example
Suppose that a man and a woman each have a pack of 52 playing cards. Each draws a card from his/her
pack. Find the probability that they each draw the ace of clubs.
We define the events:
A = probability that man draws ace of clubs = 1/52
B = probability that woman draws ace of clubs = 1/52
Clearly events A and B are independent so:
= 1/52 . 1/52 = 0.00037
That is, there is a very small chance that the man and the woman will both draw the ace of clubs.
'Subjective Probability'
A probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to
occur. Subjective probabilities contain no formal calculations and only reflect the subject's opinions and past
experience.

Subjective probabilities differ from person to person. Because the probability is subjective, it contains a high
degree of personal bias. An example of subjective probability could be asking New York Yankees fans, before
the baseball season starts, the chances of New York winning the world series. While there is no absolute
mathematical proof behind the answer to the example, fans might still reply in actual percentage terms, such
as the Yankees having a 25% chance of winning the world series.
===============

objective probability

The probability that an event will occur based an analysis in which each measure is based on a recorded
observation, rather than a subjective estimate. Objective probabilities are a more accurate way to determine
probabilities than observations based on subjective measures, such as personal estimates.

For example, one could determine the objective probability that a coin will land "heads" up by flipping it 100
times and recording each observation. When performing any statistical analysis, it is important for each
observation to be an independent event that has not been subject to manipulation. The less biased each
observation is, the less biased the end probability will be.

Objective probability is where I know that if I toss a fair coin enough times, itll turn up heads 50% of the
time. Subjective probability is where I think theres a 10% chance itll rain tomorrow, and I dont care to
repeat the event. The former is an informed statement about a system. The latter is our best guess about an
event. The former number is a constant, if weve done the calculations right. The latter number can change
as our knowledge of the event increases.

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