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Introduction
196
classied into two categories: estimated turning proportions statistically from automatic trafc detectors [1315],
and estimated OD ows in networks from link ows [16,
17]. The focus on turning ratio in urban trafc studies and
models is mainly due to the simplication of model
formulation, derivations, computations, and input specication.
Considering the circumstance characteristic and the data
availability of local area road networks, we attempt to
make a new model for trafc assignment based on Monte
Carlo simulation of intersection turning movement. This
model only needs trafc volume data of the inlet road links
and the turning ratio of intersections, which can be easily
attained from automatic eld trafc survey equipment and
manual survey.
This paper is organized as follows. We rst introduce the
modeled local area road network with the denitions and
notation adopted in this paper. Then the stability of the
urban intersection turning ratio is discussed. And then we
describe the formulation for the local area road network
assignment problem. A simulation solution algorithm is
proposed to solve the resultant problem, and then an actual
example is given to demonstrate the applicability and
validity of the proposed methodology.
Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Yuchuan DU et al. Simulation model based on Monte Carlo method for trafc assignment in local area road network
direction
average uctuation average value of 80 fractile of coefvalue of turning coefcient of varia- cient of variation/%
ratio/%
tion/%
turn left
2.14
8.56
11.73
go straight
3.39
5.21
7.17
turn right
0.92
9.33
14.99
197
Fig. 3 Time-varying drawings of turning ratio in some intersections. (a) East inlet of Zhongshan RoadWuzhong Road intersection; (b) south inlet of Jiangning RoadChangshou Road
intersection
198
(1)
j1
(6)
Yuchuan DU et al. Simulation model based on Monte Carlo method for trafc assignment in local area road network
t11
Bt
B 21
T B
B M
@
tNI 1
t12
:::
t22
:::
M
tNI 2
:::
t1NK NE
199
t2NK NE C
C
C,
C
M
A
tNI NK NE
(7)
8
tmn
>
,
< Pik lim
vi !1 vi
t
>
: Pie lim mn ,
vi !1 vi
1mNI ,1nNK ,
1mNI ,NK 1nNE :
(8)
tmn
,
vi
1mNI ,1nNK NE :
(9)
200
6.1
Experimental result
Fig. 5
Among the 21 inlet road links within this road network for
testing, the Shanghai Municipal Engineering Management
Department installed embedded loop detectors in 14
intersections which were distributed in Changning Road,
West Yanan Road, West Zhongshan Road, and Jiangsu
Road. The input ow data of these road sections may be
available from the historical database of the real-time
trafc survey system. For the remaining inlet road links,
we performed a long-time (2 h) manual investigation. We
also made a short-time (half an hour) manual investigation
into the turning ratio of 38 intersections in the road
network for testing.
Yuchuan DU et al. Simulation model based on Monte Carlo method for trafc assignment in local area road network
Fig. 6
201
Result comparison
For the 14 exit road links within the road network for
testing that are equipped with the automatic trafc survey
equipment, we may compare the actual measured data
provided by these equipment and the calculation results of
Conclusions
202
Table 2
Comparison table between actually trafc data of eld survey equipment and calculation results of model
road link No.
assignment
ow/(pcu/day)
19009
18577
432
2.33
2.33
18404
20308
1904
9.37
9.37
19433
21571
2138
9.91
9.91
18688
18251
437
2.39
2.39
10
12473
11598
875
7.55
7.55
17
14106
13374
732
5.48
5.48
18
14630
15770
1140
7.23
7.23
20
65111
68246
3135
4.59
4.59
22
18241
17197
1044
6.07
6.07
10
23
9113
11246
2133
18.97
18.97
11
25
17584
18066
482
2.67
2.67
12
26
21089
23872
2783
11.66
11.66
13
27
11486
11005
481
4.37
4.37
14
32
25318
30655
5337
17.41
17.41
S/N
References
1. Wardrop J G. Some theoretical aspects of road trafc research. In:
Proceedings of ICE, Part II. 1952, 1: 325378
2. Bechmann M, Mcguire C B, Winsten C B. Studies in the Economics
of Transportation. CT: Yale University Press, 1956
3. LeBlanc L J, Morlok E K, Piersskalla W P. An efcient approach to
solving the road network equilibrium trafc assignment problem.
Transportation Research, 1975, 9: 309318
4. Aashitiani H Z, Magnanti T L. Equilibrium on a congested
transportation network. SIAM Journal of Algebraic and Discrete
Methods, 1981, 2: 213226
tolerance
/(pcu/day)
relative tolerance/%
Yuchuan DU et al. Simulation model based on Monte Carlo method for trafc assignment in local area road network
203